Credit Chains and Production Networks

Credit Chains and Production Networks

There are three kind of flows in a Supply Chain

  • Goods
  • Information
  • Financial

 

Credit Terms in a Supplier Buyer contracts determine payment delays which accumulate in current accounts of a Firm.

  • Account Receivables
  • Account Payables

 

Credit Relations

  • Bank to Bank
  • Bank to Firm
  • Firm to Firm

Dyad of Credit Relations

  • Supplier – Buyer

 

Triad of Credit Relations

  • Supplier – Bank – Buyer

Sources of Systemic Risk

  • Failure of a Firm and its impact on Suppliers and Customers (Flow of Goods)
  • Failure of a Bank and its impact on Trade Credit
  • Credit Contraction due to de-risking by the Banks
  • Decline in Correspondent Banking relations and its impact on Trade Finance

 

From Credit Chains and Sectoral Co-movement: Does the Use of Trade
Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?

Trade credit is an important source of short-term financing for firms, not only in the U.S., as documented by Petersen and Rajan (1997), but also around the World. For instance, accounts payables are larger than short-term debt in 60 percent of the countries covered by Worldscope. Also, across the world most firms simultaneously receive credit from their suppliers and grant it to their customers, which tend to be concentrated on specific sectors.  These characteristics of trade credit financing have led some authors to propose it as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of idiosyncratic shocks. The intuition behind the mechanism is straightforward; a firm that faces a default by its customers may run into liquidity problems that force it to default to its own suppliers. Therefore, in a network of firms that borrow from each other, a temporary shock to the liquidity of some firms may cause a chain reaction in which other firms also get in financial difficulties, thus resulting in a large and persistent decline in aggregate activity. This idea was first formalized by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) in a partial equilibrium setting, and has been recently extended to a general equilibrium environment by Cardoso-Lecourtois (2004), and Boissay (2006) who have also provided evidence of the potential quantitative importance of the mechanism by calibrating their models to the cases of Mexico and the U.S., respectively.

From Ontology of Bankruptcy Diffusion through Trade Credit
Channel

A supply network is a network of entities interacting to transform raw material into finished product for customers. Since interdependencies among supply network members on material, information, and finance are becoming increasingly intensive, financial status of one firm not only depends on its own management, but also on the performance and behaviours of other members. Therefore, understanding the financial flows variability and the material interactions is a key to quantify the risk of a firm. Due to the complex structure and dynamic interactions of modern supply networks, there are some difficulties faced by pure analysis approaches in analyzing financial status of the supply network members and the high degree of nonlinear interactions between them. Mathematical and operation research models usually do not function very well for this kind of financial decision making. These models always start with many assumptions and have difficulties modeling such complex systems that include many entities, relationships, features, parameters, and constraints. In addition, traditional modeling and analysis tools lack the ability to predict the impact of a specific event on the performance of the entire supply network.  Current financial data analysis with large volumes of structure data cannot offer the full picture and intrinsic insights into the risk nature of a company. Motivated by the literature gap in risk monitoring in investment background and limitations of analysis approaches for handling bankruptcy contagion phenomenon, we propose an ontological approach to present a formal, shared conceptualization of this domain knowledge.

From Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis

The severe recession that is hitting the global economy, with very low or even negative growth rates, has caused widespread contractions in international trade, both in developed and developing countries. World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast that exports will decline by roughly 9% in volume terms in 2009 due to the collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades. The contraction in developed countries will be particularly severe with exports falling by 10%. In developing countries, which account for one-third of world trade, exports will shrink by some 2% to 3% in 2009.

The contraction in international trade has been accompanied by a sharp decline in the availability of trade finance. This decline is only partly explained by the contraction in demand: according to a BAFT (Banker’s Association for Trade and Finance) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) joint survey (2009), flows of trade finance to developed countries have fallen by 6% relative to the previous year, more than the reduction in trade flows, suggesting that part of the fall reflects a disruption of financial intermediation. The contraction in value of trade finance has also been accompanied by a sharp increase in its price. Fear that the decline in trade finance and the increase in its cost would accelerate the slowdown of world trade has triggered a number of government initiatives in support of trade finance (Chauffour and Farole,2009).

The situation is especially worrisome for firms operating in developing countries which rely heavily on trade finance to support both their exports and imports.1 With a restricted access to financing and an increased cost of financing, these firms may find difficulties in maintaining their production and trade activities.

 

Please see my related posts:

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) / Financial Supply Chain Management (F-SCM)

Production Chain Length and Boundary Crossings in Global Value Chains

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Development of Global Trade and Production Accounts: UN SEIGA Initiative

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

The Collapse of Global Trade during Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009

Understanding Global Value Chains – G20/OECD/WB Initiative

Economics of Trade Finance

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

Contagion in Financial (Balance sheets) Networks

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

LIQUIDITY, BUSINESS CYCLES, AND MONETARY POLICY

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
London School of Economics

John Moore
Edinburgh University and London School of Economics

27 November 2001

https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2008/fincycl/pdf/kimo.pdf

 

 

Credit Cycles

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki; John Moore

The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 105, No. 2.

(Apr., 1997),

http://www.nviegi.net/teaching/master/km.pdf

 

Credit chains

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Princeton University)

John Moore (University of Edinburgh)

Date January 1997

http://www.econ.ed.ac.uk/papers/id118_esedps.pdf

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/conferences/research-events—conferences-and-programs/~/media/files/research/events/1997_01-31/Kiyotaki_CreditChains.pdf

 

 

Credit and Business Cycles

N Kiyotaki

1998

https://www.princeton.edu/~kiyotaki/papers/Credit-and-BusinessCycles.pdf

 

 

Inter-Enterprise Credit and Adjustment  During Financial Crises: The Role of Firm Size

Fabrizio Coricelli

Marco Frigerio

July, 2 2016

https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/Coricelli%2C%20Fabrizio%20paper.pdf

 

 

Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks

Stefano Battiston, Domenico Delli Gatti, Mauro Gallegati,
Bruce Greenwald, Joseph E. Stiglitz

2007

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/sites/jstiglitz/files/2007_Credit_Chains.pdf

 

 

Trade Finance in Crisis : Market Adjustment or Market Failure ?

Jean-Pierre Chauffour

Thomas Farole

Date Written: July 1, 2009

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1437955

Resaleable debt and systemic risk

Jason Roderick Donaldson , Eva Micheler

2018

http://www.jrdonaldson.com/Papers/Donaldson-Micheler-Resaleable_Debt.pdf

 

Supply chains and credit-market shocks: Some implications for emerging markets,

Jinjarak, Yothin (2013)

ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 443

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101241/1/770887406.pdf

 

 

Financial Amplification Mechanisms and the Federal Reserve’s Supply of Liquidity during the Crisis

Asani Sarkar
Jeffrey Shrader

Staff Report no. 431
February 2010

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr431.pdf

 

 

Aggregate Fluctuations and the Role of Trade Credit

Lin Shao

2017

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/swp2017-37.pdf

 

 

Supply Chain Disruptions and Trade Credit

LU Yi OGURA Yoshiaki

TODO Yasuyuki ZHU Lianming

2017

https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/17e054.pdf

 

 

Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in  an Economy with Production Heterogeneity

Aubhik Khan

Julia K. Thomas

September 2013

https://www.aubhik-khan.net/KhanThomasDCTsept2013.pdf

 

 

Financial Frictions in Production Networks

Saki Bigio

Jennifer La’O

February 7, 2013

https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/sbigio/papers/FinancialFrictionsNetworks.pdf

 

Working Paper No. 67, April 2016

http://perueconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/WP-67.pdf

 

 

The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy

Levent Altinoglu

October 16, 2016
http://blogs.bu.edu/levent/files/2015/10/Altinoglu_JMP_CurrentVersion.pdf

September 30, 2015

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/425a/fcb800d01a5b8dce9ed13a4a200bf51f6fed.pdf

 

Consolidated Bibliography

WTO

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/aid4tradesupplychain13_biblio_e.pdf

 

 

Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms

Shaowen Luo

December 4, 2015

http://www.economics.illinois.edu/seminars/documents/Luo.pdf

 

FDI, Trade Credit, and Transmission of Global Liquidity Shocks:
Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

Shu Lin and Haichun Ye

http://www.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/econ/images/content/news_event/seminars/2016-2017-2nd-semester/Lin–Ye_paper.pdf

 

 

Trade Credit, Financing Structure and Growth

Junjie Xia

October 27, 2016

http://www.junjiexia.com/uploads/7/6/7/2/76726065/jmp_oct16.pdf

 

The impact of corporate distress along the supply chain: evidences from United
States

Lucia Gibilaro

Gianluca Mattarocci

http://www.efmaefm.org/0EFMAMEETINGS/EFMA%20ANNUAL%20MEETINGS/2017-Athens/papers/EFMA2017_0526_fullpaper.pdf

 

 

Does credit crunch investments down?
New evidence on the real eects of the bank-lending channel

Federico Cinganoz Francesco Manaresix Enrico Settex

December 2013

http://www.federicocingano.eu/Credit_crunch_investments.pdf

 

Interwoven Lending, Uncertainty, and Liquidity Hoarding

Adam Zawadowski

December 13, 2017

http://www.personal.ceu.hu/staff/Adam_Zawadowski/papers/credit.pdf

 

 

Trade credit: Elusive insurance of rm growth

DENNIS BAMS, JAAP BOS and MAGDALENA PISA*

October 5, 2016

http://www.research.mbs.ac.uk/accounting-finance/Portals/0/Users/002/02/2/Trade%20credit%20Elusive%20insurance%20of%20firm%20growth%202016.pdf

 

 

Chain Reactions, Trade Credit and the Business Cycle

Miguel Cardoso-Lecourtois

http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/esNASM04/up.4593.1075462930.pdf

 

From production networks to geographical economics.

Gérard Weisbuch, Stefano Battiston.

Journal ofEconomic Behavior and Organization, Elsevier, 2007, 64 (3- 4), pp.448

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00531863/document

 

 

Production networks and failure avalanches

Gerard Weisbuch
Stefano Battiston

March 5, 2018

https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0507101.pdf

 

 

Self-organised patterns in production networks

Gerard Weisbuch

October 10, 2005

http://www.lps.ens.fr/~weisbuch/gwcomplexus.pdf

 

 

Networks : Propagation of Shocks over Economic Networks

Daron Acemoglu

July 22, 2014.

https://economics.mit.edu/files/9790

 

 

Debt-Rank Analysis of Financial Distress Propagation on a Production Network in Japan

FUJIWARA Yoshi
University of Hyogo
TERAI Masaaki
RIKEN
FUJITA Yuji
Turnstone Research Institute, Inc.
SOUMA Wataru
Nihon University

https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/16e046.pdf

 

 

Operational causes of bankruptcy propagation in supply chain

Zhongsheng Hua ⁎, Yanhong Sun 1, Xiaoyan Xu

2011

http://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/48280.pdf

 

 

Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms

Shaowen Luo
September 20, 2015

http://www.econ.vt.edu/seminars/Seminar%20Papers/2016/10-02-15Luo.pdf

 

 

From Micro to Macro via Production Networks

Vasco M. Carvalho

http://www.crei.cat/wp-content/uploads/users/working-papers/carvalho_from_micro.pdf

 

 

Trade Credit and the  Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical
Analysis

Tor Jacobson and Erik von Schedvin
August 2012

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81882/1/723939764.pdf

 

CREDIT MARKET DISRUPTIONS AND LIQUIDITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN

Anna M. Costello

August 8, 2017

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/sites/gsb/files/costello-anna-acctgcamp2017_0.pdf

 

Modeling defaults of companies in multi-stage supply chain networks

Kamil J.Mizgier, StephanM.Wagner,, JanuszA.Holyst

2010

http://mars.if.pw.edu.pl/~jholyst/Mizgier_etal_InPress_Modeling_defaults_of.pdf

 

 

 

The origins of scale-free production networks

Stanislao Gualdizand Antoine Mandelx

June 28, 2015

http://www.siecon.org/online/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Gualdi.pdf

 

 

Optimization of order policies in supply networks

S. GÄottlich¤ M. Hertyy C. Ringhoferz

August 18, 2008

https://www.ki-net.umd.edu/pubs/files/FRG-2008-Ringhofer-Christian.FRG_Ringhofer_Orders080814.pdf

 

Financial Instability after Minsky: Heterogeneity, Agent Based Models and Credit
Networks

Domenico Delli Gatti

April 10, 2012

https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/delli-gatti-domenico-berlin-paper.pdf

 

Measuring the Systemic Risk in Inter firm Transaction Networks

Makoto Hazama
And
Iichiro Uesugi

http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/28392/1/wp066.pdf

 

Systemic Risk Assessment in Complex Supply Networks

Anna Ledwoch, Alexandra Brintrup, J¨orn Mehnen, Ashutosh Tiwari

https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/files/66716085/Ledwoch_etal_SJ_2016_Systemic_risk_assessment_in_complex_supply_networks.pdf

 

TRADE CREDIT DEFAULTS AND LIQUIDITY PROVISION BY FIRMS

Reint Gropp
Frédéric Boissay

2007

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp753.pdf

 

The future of agent-based modelling.

Matteo Richiardi

Institute for New Economic Thinking and Nuffield College, Oxford, United Kingdom
Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri, Italy

This draft: June 2015

https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/media/1702/abmfuture-v12.pdf

 

 

Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy

Domenico Delli Gatti
Mauro Gallegati
Bruce Greenwald
Alberto Russo
Joseph E. Stiglitz

http://terna.to.it/ABM-BaF09/presentations/DelliGatti%28presentation%29_ABM.pdf

 

 

Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?

Claudio Raddatz

The World Bank
March, 2007

http://www.webmeets.com/files/papers/LACEA-LAMES/2007/335/Credit_chains_051707_withtables.pdf

 

 

Linkages and spillovers in global production networks: firm-level analysis of the Czech automotive industry

Petr Pavlinek

Pavla Žížalová

https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1039&context=geoggeolfacpub

 

Ontology of Bankruptcy Diffusion through Trade Credit
Channel

Lin Cheng

Huaiqing Wang

Huaping Chen

https://50years.acs.org.au/content/dam/acs/50-years/journals/jrpit/JRPIT44.4.401.pdf

 

OPTIMAL ORDER AND DISTRIBUTION STRATEGIES IN PRODUCTION NETWORKS

Simone Gottlich, Michael Herty, and Christian Ringhofer

https://math.la.asu.edu/~chris/SpringerOpt10.pdf

 

Profitability, Trade Credit and Institutional Structure of Production

Michael Gofman
December 9, 2013

http://gofman.info/TC/Supplier-Customer%20Network.pdf

 

The Economics of Information and Financial
Networks

Stefano Battiston
July 22, 2016

https://simpolproject.eu/download/simpol-initiative-research/battiston2016information.pdf

 

Supply Chain Perspectives and Issues: A Literature Review

Albert Park
Gaurav Nayyar
Patrick Low

http://www.asiaglobalinstitute.hku.hk/en/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/supply-chain-perspectives-and-issues.pdf

 

 

LIAISONS DANGEREUSES: INCREASING CONNECTIVITY, RISK SHARING, AND SYSTEMIC RISK

Stefano Battiston
Domenico Delli Gatti
Mauro Gallegati
Bruce C. Greenwald
Joseph E. Stiglitz

http://www.nber.org/papers/w15611.pdf

 

 

Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis

Anna Maria C. Menichini

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/649481468314087810/pdf/WPS5112.pdf

 

 

Reducing the Probability of Bankruptcy Through Supply Chain Coordination

Xiaoyan Xu, Yanhong Sun, and Zhongsheng Hua

2010

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yanhong_Sun5/publication/220508846_Reducing_the_Probability_of_Bankruptcy_Through_Supply_Chain_Coordination/links/573eac9d08ae298602e6e77a.pdf

 

 

Pathways towards instability in financial networks

Marco Bardoscia, Stefano Battiston Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli

2017

http://lims.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/bardoscia2017pathways-1.pdf

 

 

International Credit Supply Shocks

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchiy Andrea Ferreroz Alessandro Rebuccix

June 16, 2017

https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/events/2017/boston-policy-workshop/AlessandroRebucci.pdf?la=en

 

Risk Propagation through Payment Distortion in Supply Chains

Alejandro Serrano

Rogelio Oliva

Santiago Kraiselburd

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5b5f/0e6d7dc9d4b4f6bcada884b71562791404ed.pdf

 

 

Payment Defaults and Interfirm Liquidity Provision

https://academic.oup.com/rof/article-abstract/17/6/1853/1591419

 

SYSTEMIC RISK: A SURVEY

BY OLIVIER DE BANDT
AND PHILIPP HARTMANN

November 2000

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/152469/1/ecbwp0035.pdf

 

 

Risk Propagation in Supply Chains

Alejandro Serrano

Rogelio Oliva

Santiago Kraiselburd

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2db1/f3278ab2a75ff11b0142fba19a4cf223805a.pdf

 

 

How Inventory Is (Should Be) Financed: Trade Credit in Supply Chains with Demand
Uncertainty and Costs of Financial Distress

Song (Alex) Yang, John R. Birge

http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/workshops/omscience/past/more/pdf/YangBirge_trade%20credit.pdf

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2746645

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1734682

 

 

The Supply Chain Effects of Bankruptcy

S. Alex Yang

John R. Birge, Rodney P. Parker

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6efb/86a8667f24af2c6a5cd7eb52bbd12b39697b.pdf

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.715.5812&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

Supply Chain Management: Supplier Financing Schemes and Inventory Strategies

Min Wang

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/programs/sites/programs/files/abstracts/Min_Wang_Dissertation.pdf

 

Foreign Investment and Supply Chains in Emerging Markets: Recurring Problems and Demonstrated Solutions

Theodore H. Moran

PIIE

2014

https://piie.com/publications/wp/wp14-12.pdf

 

Improving cash flow using credit management
The outline case

http://www.cimaglobal.com/Documents/ImportedDocuments/cid_improving_cashflow_using_credit_mgm_Apr09.pdf.pdf

 

CREDIT CHAINS AND THE PROPAGATION OF
FINANCIAL DISTRESS

2006

by Frederic Boissay

http://sdw.zentral-bank.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp573.pdf

 

Exposure to international crises: trade vs. financial contagion

Everett Grant

2016

https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp30.en.pdf?7b7cc950c1a2286d395ed8489bfde5c7

 

 

Credit Contagion and Trade Credit Supply:
Evidence from Small Business Data in Japan

TSURUTA Daisuke

https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/07e043.pdf

 

 

The Price of Complexity in Financial Networks

Joseph Stiglitz

2017

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/sites/jstiglitz/files/The%20Price%20of%20Complexity%20in%20Financial%20Networks.pdf

 

 

The Price of Complexity in Financial Networks

S. Battiston

2017

https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/160913_slides_battison.pdf

 

 

 

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Author: Mayank Chaturvedi

You can contact me using this email mchatur at the rate of AOL.COM. My professional profile is on Linkedin.com.

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