Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

 

 

Why Scenarios

  • World is complex (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Ecological)
  • Future is Uncertain (Critical Uncertainties)
  • Weak Signals
  • Forecasts are wrong
  • Predetermined elements ( Structure given, only variables are changing)
  • Possibility vs Probability Space
  • Scenarios are needed – Global, Specific, Exploratory, Decision
  • To Refine World Views/Mental Models/Re-perceiving/Learning/Right Brain
  • Links to Strategy and Decisions
  • Options Planning
  • Strategic Vision
  • Competitive Positioning
  • Actions and Execution

 

Please watch this video: Pierre Wack on Scenario Planning at Shell

http://oxfordfutures.sbs.ox.ac.uk/pierre-wack-memorial-library/video/index.html

 

Please see my related posts:

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Truth, Beauty, and Goodness: Integral Theory of Ken Wilber

Systems and Organizational Cybernetics

Semiotics, Bio-Semiotics and Cyber Semiotics

Meta Integral Theories: Integral Theory, Critical Realism, and Complex Thought

Integral Philosophy of the Rg Veda: Four Dimensional Man

 

 

 

 

Key Sources for Research:

 

 

Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide

2008

Shell

 

Click to access shell-scenarios-explorersguide.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Foundations of Scenario Planning

The Story of Pierre Wack

By Thomas J Chermack
2017

 

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9781317279402

The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

 

Jeremy Bentham

Shell

2014

 

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0301421513008124/1-s2.0-S0301421513008124-main.pdf?_tid=1967f236-80f8-4756-854d-fb8fe083a1b7&acdnat=1526180172_f00c5f0478a3e7970e9187a000aae807

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Strategy%20and%20Corporate%20Finance/Our%20Insights/The%20use%20and%20abuse%20of%20scenarios/The%20use%20and%20abuse%20of%20scenarios.ashx

 

Scenarios as a Tool for the 21st Century

 

Ged Davis

Shell

 

Click to access davis_how_does_shell_do_scenarios.pdf

 

Plotting Your Scenarios

Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz

 

Click to access plotting_your_scenarios.pdf

 

 

Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight

Dana Mietzner and Guido Reger

2005

 

Click to access stragegicforesight2005.pdf

 

 

 

Chapter 4
Scenario development: a typology of approaches

by
Philip van Notten

Click to access 37246431.pdf

 

 

Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead

FROM THE SEPTEMBER 1985 ISSUE

https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead?referral=03758&cm_vc=rr_item_page.top_right

 

 

 

Living in the Futures

FROM THE MAY 2013 ISSUE

https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures

Click to access Link-14.pdf

 

 

 

 

Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids

FROM THE NOVEMBER 1985 ISSUE

Scenario Planning

Economist

 

https://www.economist.com/node/12000755

Inside Oil Giant Shell’s Race to Remake Itself For a Low-Price World

Fortune

http://fortune.com/2018/01/24/royal-dutch-shell-lower-oil-prices/

 

 

 

 

The Man Who Saw the Future

As the pace of change in business accelerates, the legacy of Pierre Wack, the father of scenario planning, is more relevant than ever.

Oil scenarios for long-term business planning: Royal Dutch Shell and generative explanation, 1960-2010

Michael Jefferson and Vlasios Voudouris

 

Click to access JeffersonVoudouris.pdf

 

 

the scenarios question

Andrew Curry

 

Click to access the-scenarios-question.pdf

 

 

 

 

Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking

Paul J.H. Schoemaker
MIT Sloan Review

 

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/scenario-planning-a-tool-for-strategic-thinking/

Click to access Scenario-Planning-A-Tool-for-Strategic-Thinking.pdf

 

 

Vision 2040

Global scenarios for the oil and gas industry

 

Deloitte

Click to access ru_er_vision2040_eng.pdf

 

 

 

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

 

Ron Bradfield, George Wright, George Burt, George Cairns, Kees Van Der Heijden

 

2005

Click to access read_Bradfield-Origins-and-Evolution-of-Scenerio-Techniques.pdf

 

 

 

 

Scenario Planning and Strategic Forecasting

Jay Ogilvy

Forbes

2015

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/2/

 

 

 

Scenarios Practices: In Search of Theory

Angela Wilkinson

2009

 

Click to access 0620a938a0d2f66266e9ce52c8a7c5ce1d09.pdf

 

 

 

Scenario Planning

UK Govenment

 

Click to access foresight_scenario_planning.pdf

 

 Definitions and Outcome Variables of Scenario Planning

 

THOMAS J. CHERMACK

SUSAN A. LYNHAM

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1010.1821&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

Rafael Ramirez (Oxford University)

Cynthia Selin (Arizona State University)

 

Click to access ACCEPTED__Plausibility_and_Probability_in_Scenario_Planning_March_24_2013.pdf

Click to access ACCEPTED_Plausibility_and_Probability_in_Scenario_Planning_March_24_2013.pdf

 

 

 

How to Build Scenarios Planning for “long fuse, big bang” problems in an era of uncertainty.

BY LAWRENCE WILKINSON

 

Click to access Wilkinson%20on%20scenarios_Martin%20B.pdf

 

 

 

 

Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis

WEF

2017

 

Click to access WEF_FSA_FutureofGlobalFoodSystems.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls

 

MICHEL GODET

 

Click to access art_of_scenarios.pdf

 

 

 

 

Scenario-Based Strategic Planning in Times of Tumultuous Change

AT Kearney

https://www.atkearney.de/documents/10192/376745/Scenario-Based_Strategic_Planning_in_Times_of_Tumultuous_Change.pdf/0012fe94-4038-449b-8423-bc81a3dba1a5

 

 

 

SHELL SCENARIOS

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html

 

 

WHAT ARE SHELL SCENARIOS?

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/what-are-scenarios.html

 

 

SKY SCENARIO

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html

 

 

 

EARLIER SCENARIOS

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future/earlier-scenarios.html

 

NEW LENS ON THE FUTURE

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future.html

 

 

SHELL SCENARIOS ENERGY MODELS

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-energy-models.html

 

 

 

SHELL SCENARIOS IN FILM

 

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-in-film.html

 

 

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

Click to access shell-scenarios-40yearsbook080213.pdf

 

 

 

Understanding the Stress Nexus

 

Click to access stress-nexus-booklet.pdf

 

 

 

SHELL ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT

 

Click to access web-shell-energy-transition-report.pdf

 

 

MEET THE SHELL SCENARIOS TEAM

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/meet-the-shell-scenarios-team.html

 

 

 

SUSTAINABILITY REPORTS

https://www.shell.com/sustainability/sustainability-reporting-and-performance-data/sustainability-reports.html

 

 

 

Scenario planning resources

https://people.well.com/user/mb/scenario_planning/

 

 

HOW CAN SCENARIOS SHAPE DECISION MAKING?

Dr. John W. Selsky

2013

 

Click to access Scenarios%20Decision%20Making-Berlin.pdf

 

 

 

PROFESSIONAL DREAMERS:

THE PAST IN THE FUTURE OF SCENARIO PLANNING

By Cynthia Selin, Arizona State University

 

2007

Click to access selin_2007_professional_dreamers.pdf

 

 

 

 

An Introduction to Scenario Thinking

“ We cannot predict the future, but we must act!”

 

By Eric Best

 

Click to access An-Introduction-to-Secnario-Thinking.pdf

 

 

the future of futures

A Curry

 

Click to access FutureOfFutures_APF_ebook_E2.pdf

 

 

We are grateful to Cynthia Selin and Napier Collyns for compiling this bibliography.

 

Click to access donmichael_bibliography.pdf

 

 

 

 

In Memory of Pierre Wack

by Napier Collyns and Hardin Tibbs

Netview

GBN

 

Click to access Pierre+Wack+1922-1997+.pdf

 

 

 

 

Re-reading Pierre Wack on scenarios

A Curry

2017

https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2017/12/09/pierre-wack-on-scenarios-shell/

 

 

 

Scenario Planning Resources

Thinking Futures

https://thinkingfutures.net/scenario-planning-resources/

 

 

 

Journal of Futures Studies

http://jfsdigital.org

 

 

 WHAT IF? THE ART OF SCENARIO

THINKING FOR NONPROFITS

 

Click to access What_if-Art_of_Scenario_Thinking_for_NonProfits.pdf

 

 

Oxford Futures Library unveils rare footage of scenarios planning pioneer Pierre Wack

https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/school/news/oxford-futures-library-unveils-rare-footage-scenarios-planning-pioneer-pierre-wack

 

 

Should Probabilities Be Used with Scenarios?

 

Stephen M. Millett

Click to access f9cef0b618c480312802fbb78e49bd69fa83.pdf

GBN (Global Business Network)

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network

Author: Mayank Chaturvedi

You can contact me using this email mchatur at the rate of AOL.COM. My professional profile is on Linkedin.com.

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