Single, Double, and Triple Loop Organizational Learning

Single, Double, and Triple Loop Organizational Learning

Key Terms

  • Learning
  • Organizational Learning
  • Chris Argyris
  • David Schon
  • Peter Senge
  • Single Loop Learning
  • Double Loop Learning
  • Triple Loop Learning
  • Quadruple Loop Learning
  • Error Correction
  • Feedback Loop
  • Gregory Bateson
  • Action Learning
  • Cybernetic Loop
  • Reflexivity
  • Reflection and Learning
  • Systems Thinking
  • Cause and Effects
  • Organizational Adaptability
  • Organizational Culture
  • Theory In Use Models I and II
  • Action Science
  • Ed Schein
  • Levels of Learning
  • Planning as Learning
  • Cybernetics
  • Second Order Cybernetics
  • Third Order Cybernetics
  • Perceptual Flaws
  • Cognitive Learning
  • Hierarchical Planning
  • Management Control Systems
  • Management Planning and Control Systems
  • Planning and Control Systems
  • Manufacturing Planning and Control Systems
  • Advanced Planning Systems (APS)
  • Balanced Scorecards
  • Strategic Management
  • Social Learning
  • Learning to Plan, Planning to learn
  • Deutero Learning
  • Meta Learning
  • Explicit Knowledge
  • Tacit Knowledge

Single and Double Loop Learning

Source: Deradicalization through Double-Loop Learning? How the Egyptian Gamaa Islamiya Renounced Violence

Argyris and Schon thereby start with the assumption that “all deliberate action ha[s] a cognitive basis, that it reflect[s] norms, strategies, and assumptions or models of the world.”21 These mental models work as a “frame of reference” which determine expectations regarding cause and effect relationships between actions and outcomes.22 According to Argyris and Schon, organizational learning becomes necessary when there is an “error,” a mismatch between intended outcomes of strategies of action and actual results; consequently, they define learning as the “detection and correction of error.”23 This correction of errors happens through a continuous process of organizational inquiry of varying depth. Argyris and Schon distinguish two types of learning:24 In single-loop learning systems, the detection and correction of error connects the outcome in a single loop only to strategies of action whereas the governing variables remain unchanged. In double-loop learning systems, a double feedback loop “connects the detection of error not only to strategies and assumptions for effective performance, but to the very norms which define effective performance.”25 Hence, double-loop learning modifies the governing variables underlying objectives.

Single-loop learning to increase the effectiveness of actions is the dominant response to error and ingrained in routine procedures in any organization. Unfortunately, due to organizational inertia and a tendency to become defensive when confronted with failure, organizations have a tendency to produce learning systems that inhibit double-loop learning that would question their objectives and governing variables.26 Single-loop learning systems are characterized by attempts to increase effectiveness without questioning norms underlying objectives. When organizations initiate change to curb activities under existing norms, a conflict in the norms themselves can emerge. For example, requirements for change can come into conflict with the requirement of predictability.27 Argyris and Schon suggest that in order to double-loop learn, leaders must first recognize the conflict between conflicting requirements itself. They must become aware that they cannot correct the error by doing better what they already know how to do. They must engage in deep organizational inquiry: in this process the focus has to shift from learning concerned with improvement in the performance of organizational tasks to inquiry through which an organization explores and restructures the values and criteria through which it defines what it means by improved performance.28 This is often inherently conflictual. Double-loop learning can namely be inhibited when norms are undiscussable within organizations. That leaders may be unaware of the conflict between conflicting requirements may be one reason why norms become undiscussable within organizations, leading to a double-bind situation for individuals. If they expose an error, they question covert or unquestionable norms. If they do not expose an error, they perpetuate a process that inhibits organizational learning.29 Individuals thus face lose/losepage6image1381222848

STUDIES IN CONFLICT & TERRORISM 5 situations in which the rules of the game are not open to discussion.30 Commonly,

organizational norms also make the double binds themselves undiscussable:

Such procedure means that the very information needed to detect and correct errors becomes undiscussable. If one wanted to design a strategy to inhibit double-loop learning and to encourage error, a better one could not be found.31

Argyris and Schon conclude that organizations have a tendency to produce learning systems that inhibit double-loop learning as it would question their objective and norms.32 Double binds indicate such single-loop learning systems. Does the lack of cognitive abilities, as well as perceptual flaws, explain why individuals become locked in double binds, and why learning in organizations becomes inhibited? According to Argyris and Schon, the problem lies with organizational defenses that lead to a lack of error perception, rendering errors uncorrectable. Defensive organizational routines come into play when threatening or embarrassing issues arise, preventing lessons from being learned.33 Defensive routines – such as sending mixed messages or being overly diplomatic – are frequently activated when they are most counterproductive. Defensive routines can create binds:

On the one hand, […] [p]articipants are not supposed to bypass errors. Moreover, the bypass is undiscussable […] On the other hand, if the errors, their undiscussability, and the cover-ups surface, the participants are subject to criticism … 34

Defensive routines therefore prevent members of organizations from discovering the root causes of the problem and lead to paradoxes because individuals design inconsistencies of meaning and camouflage them by producing mixed messages: “to be consistent, act inconsistently, and act as if that is not the case.”35 A second consequence is that people start creating attributions to make sense of other peoples’ actions – attributions which are frequently wrong but remain unquestioned. As a result, reactions lead to unintended consequences. So why do people create consequences that contradict their intentions?36 Argyris and Schon consider that people are responsible for their actions, and that individuals who deny responsibility usually put the blame on others.37

In contrast, in double-loop learning systems productive reasoning takes place, following a logic that is not self-referential, where people take responsibility, acknowledge when there is a mismatch between intention and outcome, share awareness of organizational dilemmas, engage such conflicts through inquiry, and decrease double binds.38 In this second learning loop, the focus shifts from learning how to better accomplish tasks within a given frame of reference to learning what to do by questioning the frame of reference itself.39 In other words, while single-loop learning focuses on improving what an organization already does, or “doing the things right,” double-loop learning is concerned with what organizations ought to do, or “doing the right things.”40 However, Argyris and Schon find only limited empirical evidence for double-loop learning systems and remark that it depicts an ideal type that can be approached, making it possible to speak of organizations learning in a more or less double-loop way.41 The dynamics described above explain how double-loop systems become inhibited and how people hide their responsibility by blaming the environment for their inability to double-loop learn. Argyris and Schon also address intervention strategies that help organizations approach double-loop learning. One tool is the drawing of a diagnostic map describing how the organization learns. Such a map, they suggest, can help with predictions if certain changes were to be implemented,42 and can be used to depict alternative scenarios and their consequences.

Single Loop Learning

Source: Wikipedia

Double Loop Learning

Source: Wikipedia

Single and Double Loop Learning

Triple Loops of Learning

Source: The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

Many scholars have considered the concept of organizational learning as a dichotomy. In its basic, primary form they have described it as action oriented, routine and incremental, occurring within existing (mental) frameworks, norms, policies and rules. In the face of profound change in organizational environments, these scholars argue that a qualitatively distinct, secondary form of learning is necessary. This aims to change the (mental) frameworks, norms, policies and routines underlying day-to-day actions and routines (Cope, 2003).

This dichotomy has been expressed in a variety of terms: single-loop and double-loop (e.g. Argyris and Schön, 1974); lower-level and higher-level (Fiol and Lyles, 1985); first-order and second-order (Arthur and Aiman-Smith, 2001); exploitation and exploration (Levinthal and March, 1993; March, 1991); incremental and radical (Miner and Mezias, 1996); and adaptive and generative learning (Senge, 1990). Although these dichotomous terms stem from different perspectives on organizational learning, a reasonable consensus seems to have been established that they refer to comparable learning processes and outcomes (Argyris, 1996; Arthur and Aiman-Smith, 2001; Miner and Mezias, 1996). Thus, as defined by Argyris (1999: 68), single-loop learning occurs ‘whenever an error is detected and corrected without questioning or altering the underlying values of the system’, and double-loop learning occurs ‘when mismatches are corrected by first examining and altering the governing variables and then the actions’.

A number of authors have conceived of a further type of organizational learning, for which the most prominent term is ‘triple-loop’ learning (Flood and Romm, 1996; Isaacs, 1993; Romme and Van Witteloostuijn, 1999; Snell and Chak, 1998; Swieringa and Wierdsma, 1992; Yuthas et al., 2004). Typically, this is described as additional to, and metaphorically at a ‘higher’ or ‘deeper’ level than, primary and secondary forms of learning, the metaphor implying that this level has greater significance and profundity. Yet, in spite of its perceived importance, conceptualizations of this form of learning do not always make clear how it differs from, or relates to, primary or secondary forms. Scholars of organizational learning might look first to Argyris and Schön; significantly, though, we have established that whilst triple-loop learning has been inspired by Argyris and Schön, the term does not appear explicitly in their published work.

Within this we explore the original work of Argyris and Schön, and of the anthropologist and cybernetician Gregory Bateson, the major influences cited by authors who propose these conceptualizations. This enables us to make a theoretical contribution through identifying three distinct conceptualizations of triple-loop learning. These are:

A. a level beyond, and considered by proponents to be superior to, Argyris and Schön’s single-loop and double-loop learning;

B. an equivalent to Argyris and Schön’s (1978, 1996) concept of ‘deutero-learning’;

C. a proposed third level inspired by Bateson’s (1973)1 framework of levels of learning (specifically ‘Learning III’).

We discuss why these conceptualizations should be regarded as distinct from each other, and highlight some implications for practice.

Source: The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

Source: Levels of learning: hither and whither

Source: Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward

Source: TOOL | Single, Double and Triple Loop Learning

Quadruple Loops of Learning

Source: Policy learning and crisis policy-making: quadruple-loop learning and COVID-19 responses in South Korea

Levels of Learning

Source: The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

Org. Culture, Learning, Performance

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source: A GENERIC THEORY OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE

Source: A GENERIC THEORY OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE

Source: Approaches for Organizational Learning: A Literature Review

Management Planning and Control Systems

Source: Performance management: a framework for management control systems research

Hierarchical Production Planning and Control

Source: A bibliography of Hierarchical Production Planning

Production Planning and Control Systems

Source: Google Images

Strategic, Tactical, and Operational Decisions

Source: Hierarchical Production Planning / Bitran/Tirupati/1989

My Related Posts

Steps to an Ecology of Mind: Recursive Vision of Gregory Bateson

Cybernetics, Autopoiesis, and Social Systems Theory

Autocatalysis, Autopoiesis and Relational Biology

Multilevel Approach to Research in Organizations

Second Order Cybernetics of Heinz Von Foerster

Feedback Thought in Economics and Finance

Third and Higher Order Cybernetics

Systems and Organizational Cybernetics

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

Hierarchy Theory in Biology, Ecology and Evolution

Jay W. Forrester and System Dynamics

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Key Sources of Research

Triple-loop learning : theoretical framework, methodology & illustration

(An example from the railway sector)

Guillaume BarbatPhilippe BoigeyIsabelle Jehan

Dans Projectics / Proyéctica / Projectique 2011/2-3 (n°8-9), pages 129 à 141

https://www.cairn.info/revue-projectique-2011-2-page-129.htm

What is Social Learning?

Author(s): Mark S. Reed, Anna C. Evely, Georgina Cundill, Ioan Fazey, Jayne Glass, Adele Laing, Jens Newig, Brad Parrish, Christina Prell, Chris Raymond and Lindsay C. Stringer

Source: Ecology and Society , Dec 2010, Vol. 15, No. 4 (Dec 2010) Published by: Resilience Alliance Inc.

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26268235

The learning organization and the level of consciousness 

Ricardo Chiva

http://repositori.uji.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10234/169412/54786.pdf?sequence=1

Policy learning and crisis policy-making: quadruple-loop learning and COVID-19 responses in South Korea

Sabinne Leea, Changho Hwangb and M. Jae Moonc

aAssociate Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, South Korea; 

bAssistant Professor, Dong-A University, Busan, South Korea; 

cCollege of Social Science, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea

POLICY AND SOCIETY
2020, VOL. 39, NO. 3, 363–381 https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2020.1785195

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14494035.2020.1785195

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14494035.2020.1785195

“A systemic approach to processes of power in learning organizations: Part I – literature, theory, and methodology of triple loop learning”,

Robert L. Flood, Norma R.A. Romm, (2018)

The Learning Organization, Vol. 25 Issue: 4, pp.260-272, https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-10-2017-0101
Permanent link to this document:
https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-10-2017-0101

“A systemic approach to processes of power in learning organizations: Part II – triple loop learning and a facilitative intervention in the “500 schools project””,

Robert L. Flood, Norma R.A. Romm, (2018)

The Learning Organization, https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-11-2017-0106
Permanent link to this document:
https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-11-2017-0106

A Mighty Step: Critical Systemic Interpretation of the Learning Organization

Robert Louis Flood and Hanne Finnestrand

The Oxford Handbook of the Learning Organization Edited by Anders Ragnar Örtenblad

Print Publication Date: Dec 2019
Subject: Business and Management, Organizational Theory and Behaviour
Online Publication Date: Jan 2020 DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198832355.013.11

Click to access A-Mighty-Step-Critical-Systemic-Interpretation-of-the-Learning-Organization.pdf

LEVELS OF LEARNING: HITHER AND WHITHER

“Guest editorial”,

Max Visser, Ricardo Chiva, Paul Tosey, (2018)

The Learning Organization, Vol. 25 Issue: 4, pp.218-223, https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-02-2018-0021
Permanent link to this document:
https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-02-2018-0021

http://repositori.uji.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10234/176446/60253.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Learning from the future meets Bateson’s levels of learning

Alexander Kaiser

Institute for Information Business, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria

The Learning Organization Vol. 25 No. 4, 2018 pp. 237-247

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-06-2017-0065/full/html

The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

Paul Tosey, Max Visser and Mark NK Saunders

Management Learning 2012 43: 291

originally published online 2 December 2011 DOI: 10.1177/1350507611426239

The online version of this article can be found at:

http://mlq.sagepub.com/content/43/3/291

Click to access The-origins-and-conceptualizations-of-triple-loop-learning-A-critical-review.pdf

Why aren‟t we all working for Learning Organisations?

Professor John Seddon and Brendan O‟Donovan

e-ORGANISATIONS & PEOPLE, MAY 200910, VOL 17. NO 2

Click to access why-arent-we-all-working-for-learning-organisations.pdf

The Culture of Learning Organizations: Understanding Argyris’s Theory through a Socio- Cognitive Systems Learning Model

Laura Friesenborg

University of St. Thomas, Minnesota

Thesis PhD 2013

https://ir.stthomas.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1030&context=caps_ed_orgdev_docdiss

FROM ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING TO SOCIAL LEARNING: A TALE OF TWO ORGANISATIONS IN THE MURRAY-DARLING BASIN

Michael Mitchell, School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania

http://dx.doi.org/10.5172/rsj.2013.22.3.230

Rural Society · June 2013

Shifting from Unilateral Control to Mutual Learning

By Fred Kofman

The executive mind and double-loop learning

ChrisAgryris

Available online 6 February 2004.

Organizational Dynamics
Volume 11, Issue 2, Autumn 1982, Pages 5-22

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/009026168290002X

Problem-Solving as a Double-Loop Learning System 

by Jeff Dooley
© 1999 Adaptive Learning Design

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.35.44&rep=rep1&type=pdf

chris argyris: theories of action, double‐loop learning and organizational learning

Double Loop Learning in Organizations

Chris Argyris
Harvard Business Review
No. 77502

Harvard Business Review (September 1977)

Click to access Chris-Argyris-Double-Loop-Learning-in-Organisations.pdf

https://hbr.org/1977/09/double-loop-learning-in-organizations

Single-Loop and Double-Loop Models in Research on Decision Making

Author(s): Chris Argyris


Source: Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Sep., 1976), pp. 363-375 Published by: Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2391848

A Primer on Organizational Learning

By Olivier Serrat

ADB

Modes of Organizational Learning

by Soren Eilertsen, Ph.D., with Kellan London, M.A.

Click to access single_and_double_loop_learning.pdf

The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

July 2012

Management Learning 43(3):291-307
DOI:10.1177/1350507611426239

Paul Tosey
Max Visser
Mark NK Saunders

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258171998_The_origins_and_conceptualizations_of_%27triple-loop%27_learning_A_critical_review

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-origins-and-conceptualizations-of-‘triple-loop’-Tosey-Visser/ea24da54380dc3cabdac74deb6cc57132a470c8a

TOOL | Single, Double and Triple Loop Learning

Good Communication That Blocks Learning

by Chris Argyris

Harvard Business Review 1994
Reprint 94401

Click to access Chris-Argyris-Good-Communication-that-Blocks-Learning.pdf

Double loop learning in organizations

By uncovering their own hidden theories of action, managers can detect and correct errors

Chris Argyris

Harvard Business Review September-October 1977

https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/33422921/08_Argyris_doublelooplearning.pdf?1396993260=u0026amp;response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename%3DDouble_loop_learning_in_organizations.pdfu0026amp;Expires=1627165288u0026amp;Signature=GOY4COga2LJKGnc3XAB5ge8ybpWvBBmeO779XhTzktEKTrIQREbkh9V8apE6z2QMCT2vufBoTq1NSSHNDJj0GGXu66VeCS8D37cTi-onZECbPUF5wXZ7Oa2U5Ih54fN-muWcED9BKEmV4G0e7kF3kDeAWrCs0jX5zC63JnOOvAyRL0ZjCcDGeF2~7T7WeNSnNZBKFJZW49tXy~LjhoRil2s7HBZxYI-Fjjp~fylKpDgDRZnfouPkCSnLU1rpeQBQOgrPnb8qmF0Bl6APCc-edECHKgsDYYBiqViUQ4epMm1yZbCSeUlYV6ODDm1dzWbfarwnOtRBnGWozuUbTYwIYg__u0026amp;Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA

Analyzing the loops and taking the steps on the journey toward a learning organization

Simon Reese

University of Maryland University College, Seoul, Korea

The Learning Organization Vol. 24 No. 3, 2017 pp. 194-197

DOI 10.1108/TLO-01-2017-0004

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-01-2017-0004/full/pdf?title=analyzing-the-loops-and-taking-the-steps-on-the-journey-toward-a-learning-organization

N-loop learning: part II – an empirical investigation

Bernard L. Simonin 

The Learning Organization

ISSN: 0969-6474

May 2017

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-12-2016-0100/full/html

N-loop learning: part I – of hedgehog, fox, dodo bird and sphinx

Bernard L. Simonin 

The Learning Organization

ISSN: 0969-6474

Article publication date: 10 April 2017 

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-12-2016-0099/full/html

Challenges of the levels of learning

Nataša Rupčić 

The Learning Organization

ISSN: 0969-6474

Article publication date: 14 May 2018

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-03-2018-0037/full/html

Deradicalization through Double-Loop Learning? How the Egyptian Gamaa Islamiya Renounced Violence

Carolin Goerzig

To cite this article: Carolin Goerzig (2019): Deradicalization through Double-Loop Learning? How the Egyptian Gamaa Islamiya Renounced Violence, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2019.1680193

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1680193

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epub/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1680193?needAccess=true

Systems Thinkers

  • Magnus Ramage
  • Karen Shipp

2009

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-84882-525-3?page=2#toc

Reframing Conflict: Intercultural Conflict as Potential Transformation

Beth Fisher-Yoshida

Journal of Intercultural Communication No.8, 2005

Developing the Leader’s Strategic Mindset: Establishing the Measures

John Pisapia, Daniel Reyes-Guerra, and Eleni Coukos-Semmel,

Kravis Leadership Institute, Leadership Review, Spring 2005, Vol. 5, pp. 41-68

What is Social Learning?

DOI:10.5751/ES-03564-1504r01

Authors:

Mark S. Reed

Anna Clair Evely

Georgina Cundill

Ioan Fazey

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259638979_What_is_Social_Learning

The social learning discourse: Trends, themes and interdisciplinary influences in current research.

Environmental Science and Policy, 25, 157-166.

Strategic Learning

MICHAEL L. BARNETT

University of Oxford
Saïd Business School, Room 30.015 Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
United Kingdom +44(0)1865 288844 michael.barnett@sbs.ox.ac.uk

The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management

David Teece and Mie Augier (eds.)

The Overview on Evolution of Learning Organization Theories

Sara. Ghaffari,1 Dr. Ishak. Mad Shah,2, and Jeveria Fazal3

Universiti Tecknologi Malaysia

Ishak@utm.my Saragh7@yahoo.com, Javb107@yahoo.com

Modes of Knowing and Modes of Coming to Know Knowledge Creation and Co-Construction as Socio-Epistemological Engineering in Educational Processes

Markus F. Peschl

Constructivist Foundations

Volume 1 · Number 3 · Pages 111–123

Constructivist Foundations 1(3): 111–123.

http://constructivist.info/1/3/111

https://constructivist.info/1/3/111.peschl

Triple-loop learning as foundation for profound change, individual cultivation, and radical innovation: Construction processes beyond scientific and rational knowledge.

Peschl M. F. (2007)

Constructivist Foundations 2(2-3): 136–145.

http://constructivist.info/2/2-3/136

A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture **

Daniel Dauber1, Gerhard Fink2, and Maurice Yolles

SAGE Open 1–16
2012
DOI: 10.1177/2158244012441482

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2158244012441482

Exploring adaptability through learning layers and learning loops

Löf, Annette 

Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.

DOI:10.1080/13504622.2010.505429

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241715151_Exploring_adaptability_through_learning_layers_and_learning_loops

Kolb’s Model of Experiential Learning: A framework for Collaboration

Dr. Michael Manning

CAAHE Academics Conference October, 2011
Austin, TX

Click to access KolbsModelofExperientialLearning.pdf

A GENERIC THEORY OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE

Daniel Dauber, WU -Vienna University of Economics and Business (daniel.dauber@wu.ac.at)

Gerhard Fink, WU -Vienna University of Economics and Business (gerhard.fink@wu.ac.at)

Maurice Yolles, Centre for the Creation of Coherent Change & Knowledge (C4K) (m.yolles@ljmu.ac.uk)

Cross-disciplinary collaboration and learning. 

Pennington, D. D. 2008.

Ecology and Society 13(2): 8. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art8/

Barriers to organizational learning: An integration of theory and research

Jan Schilling1 and Annette Kluge

International Journal of Management Reviews (2009)

doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2370.2008.00242.x

Organizational learning in complex world

Agnieszka Dziubińska

Faculty of Management, University of Economics in Katowice, POLAND, Katowice, 1 Maja street 50,
E-mail: agnieszka.dziubińska@ue.katowice.pl

Click to access 87-246-249.pdf

Coming to a New Awareness of Organizational Culture ,

Schein, Edgar H., 

Sloan Management Review, 25:2 (1984:Winter) p.3

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/coming-to-a-new-awareness-of-organizational-culture/

The Real Relationship Between Organizational Culture and Organizational Learning

Fumie ANDO

School of Business Administration, Nanzan University

E-mail:fumiea@nanzan-u.ac.jp

Annals of Business Administrative Science Vol.1, No.2 (July 2002)

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/abas/1/2/1_25/_pdf

A Review of the Concept of Organisational Learning

By Catherine L Wang & Pervaiz K Ahmed

Working Paper Series 2002 Number WP004/02

ISSN Number ISSN 1363-6839

Catherine L Wang

Research Assistant
University of Wolverhampton, UK Tel: +44 (0) 1902 321651
Email: C.Wang@wlv.ac.uk

Professor Pervaiz K Ahmed

Chair in Management
University of Wolverhampton, UK Tel: +44 (0) 1902 323921
Email: pkahmed@wlv.ac.uk

Double-Loop Learning, Teaching, and Research

DOI:10.5465/AMLE.2002.8509400

Chris Argyris

Performance management: a framework for management control systems research

David Otley􏰆

Management Accounting Research, 1999, 10, 363􏰀382

Article No. mare.1999.0115

Management Control Systems: A Historical Perspective

  • January 2010

Jordi Carenys

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293221830_Management_Control_Systems_A_Historical_Perspective

MANAGEMENT CONTROL SYSTEMS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Peter Lorange

Michael S. Scott Morton

1974 MIT

Double-loop learning

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-loop_learning

Approaches for Organizational Learning: A Literature Review **

Dirk BastenThilo Haamann

First Published August 12, 2018 

https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244018794224

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2158244018794224

A bibliography of Hierarchical Production Planning

Click to access A_BIBLIOGRAPHY.PDF

HIERARCHIES

IN PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL: A SURVEY

Camille M. Libosvar

Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems 

January 7. 1988

LIDS-P-1734

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge. Massachusetts

HIERARCHICAL PRODUCTION PLANNING SYSTEMS

by
ARNOLDO C. MAX
and JONATHAN J . GOLOVIN


August 1977

Technical Report No. 135
Work Performed Under
Contract N00014—75—C—0556, Office of Naval Research
Multilevel Logistics Organization Models
NR 347—027
M.I.T. OSP 82491
Operations Research Center
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
cambridge , Massachusetts 02139

“Hierarchical Production Planning”

Gabriel R. Bitran*t Devanath Tirupati**

MIT Sloan School Working Paper #3017-89-MS

May 1989

*Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139

**Department of Management, The University of Texas at Austin

tThis research has been partially supported by the Leaders for Manufacturing Program.

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Hierarchical-production-planning-Bitran-Tirupati/ca83a1bab3540162c2b19f19d3d08a99a18c0165

HIERARCHICAL INTEGRATION OF PRODUCTION PLANNING AND SCHEDULING

by
Arnoldo C. Hax and Harlan C. Meal

May 1973

656-73

Hierarchical Production Planning: A Single Stage System

Gabriel R. Bitran, Elizabeth A. Haas and Arnoldo C. Hax

Operations Research
Vol. 29, No. 4, Operations Management (Jul. – Aug., 1981), pp. 717-743 (27 pages)
Published By: INFORMS
Operations Research
https://www.jstor.org/stable/170387

Hierarchical planning systems — a production application

Hax A.C., Bitran G.R. (1979)

In: Ritzman L.P., Krajewski L.J., Berry W.L., Goodman S.H., Hardy S.T., Vitt L.D. (eds) Disaggregation. Springer, Dordrecht.

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7636-9_5

  • Publisher Name Springer, Dordrecht
  • Print ISBN 978-94-015-7638-3
  • Online ISBN 978-94-015-7636-9

Hierarchical Production Planning: A Two Stage System

DOI:10.1287/opre.30.2.232

Gabriel R. Bitran

Elizabeth A. Haas

Arnoldo C. Hax

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235064925_Hierarchical_Production_Planning_A_Two_Stage_System

Analytical Evaluation of Hierarchical Planning Systems

M. A. H. DEMPSTER

Balliol College, Oxford, England

M. L. FISHER

University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

L. JANSEN, 8. J. LAGEWEG, J. K. LENSTRA Mathematisch Centrum, AmsterdamThe Netherlands

A. H. G. RINNOOY KAN

Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

(Received December 1979; accepted March 1981)

Click to access RR-84-04.pdf

Deutero-Learning in Organizations: A Review and a Reformulation

DOI:10.5465/AMR.2007.24351883

Max Visser

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228975720_Deutero-Learning_in_Organizations_A_Review_and_a_Reformulation

https://repository.ubn.ru.nl/bitstream/handle/2066/19481/19481.pdf?sequence=1

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Scenarios: Frames of Possibilities and Plausibilities

Scenarios: Frames of Possibilities and Plausibilities

Key Terms

  • Scenarios
  • Scenario Planning
  • Futures
  • Intuitive Logics method
  • Shell
  • GBN
  • Oxford Scenarios Program
  • Predetermined Elements
  • Critical Uncertainty
  • Weak Signals
  • SRI International (Stanford Research Institute)
  • RAND Corporation
  • Hudson Institute
  • DNI US MoD
  • UK MoD
  • Scenario Quadrant
  • Multiple Scenarios
  • Bounded Rationality
  • Cognitive Biases
  • Frames
  • Availability Bias
  • Overconfidence
  • Anchoring
  • Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA)

Key Concepts

Source: UNDP FORESIGHT: THE MANUAL Page 11

Black swans

Rare and discontinuous events that are unprecedented, unexpected and have major effects. They are often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight, but this tendency to see coherence can obscure future threats.

Cognitive bias

A pattern of deviation in judgment that influences the way information is received, processed, retained or called. Cognitive biases influence how inferences, judgements and predictions are drawn.

Cognitive dissonance

The mental stress or discomfort one experiences when confronted with new information or views that contradicts existing values or beliefs. Because humans strive for internal consistency, individuals tend to reduce cognitive dissonance by denying or devaluing new information and views, or rationalising their own values and beliefs.

Complexity

Complex systems are non-linear and diverse networks made up of multiple interconnected elements. Cause and effect relationships within the system are not easily discernable or predictable. Historical extrapolation is futile for predicting emergence (new patterns and behaviours) in complex systems.

Cross-‐cutting issues

Issues or challenges that affect more than a single interest area, institution or stakeholder, and that need to be addressed from all points of view. A Whole-of-Government or Networked approach is useful for addressing cross-cutting issues.

Design thinking

An end-user centred approach to problem-solving that places the final experience at the heart of developing solutions. Following an iterative approach, the rapid prototyping component of design thinking allows for quick adaptation in uncertain environments and continual improvement.

Experimentation and prototyping

Experimentation is a process that seeks to test and validate competing hypotheses. Prototyping refers to creating models or sketches to test ideas and spot problems. Experimentation and prototyping are effective ways to navigate and test hypotheses and ideas in complex or rapidly changing environments.

Interdependence

A relationship of mutual reliance between two or more factors within a system such that changes in one area affect the other(s). 

Path dependency

Describes the inclination to stick to past practice despite the availability of newer, more efficient practices as a result of cognitive biases such as risk aversion, or concerns over sunk costs. Designing contingency plans with ample space for flexibility can reduce the constraints of path dependency.

Resilience

A system’s ability to cope with and recover from shocks or disruptions, either by returning to the status quo or by transforming itself to adapt to the new reality. Resilient systems view change as inevitable and failure as opportunities to learn from. Social cohesion, trust in government and national pride can be indicators of resilience.

Retrospective coherence

The act of assigning coherence in hindsight in order to make sense of what is happening. Practicing retrospective coherence presents the danger of making decisions for the future based on the lessons of history that may not apply in similar situations.

Signposts

Milestone markers between a given future and the present day that aid visualisation by breaking up the path to the future into manageable blocks of time. They can help to gauge the extent to which a particular scenario has materialised, and can be events, thresholds or trends and patterns.

Systems thinking

An analytical problem solving approach that looks at a system as a whole rather than in isolation, and that considers the interactions between various elements. The big-picture overview helps decision makers see linkages across different sections within the system and can foster collaboration and shared understanding within an organisation. Systems thinking also helps policymakers identify cause-effect relationships and how they might manifest in the larger system.

Unknown unknowns

Issues and situations in organisations that have yet to surface and which are blind spots for planners who are unaware that they do not know about them.

Whole-‐of-‐Government (WG)

A ‘joined-up’ or networked approach to governance that represents a shift from vertical to horizontal decision-making, and which is built on inter-agency collaboration and collective problem-solving. Whole-of-government involves a process of identifying, analysing and managing wide-ranging and cross-cutting issues.

Wicked problems

Large and intractable issues and challenges that have no immediate or obvious solutions and whose causes and influencing factors are not easily determined. Wicked problems are characterised by many agents interacting with each other in often mystifying ways, and involve multiple stakeholders operating with different perspectives and goals. 

Purpose of Scenarios

Source: Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?

Van der Heijden [15] argues that there is a confusing assortment of reasons as to why one should engage in scenarios. He advocates the importance of clearly identifying the purpose of undertaking scenario work — in order to make the appropriate selection of scenario methodology. Van der Heijden argues that “purpose” can be divided along two dimensions; the first dimension is to establish the extent of the scenario work i.e. whether the scenario work is to be a one-off project, or part of on an on-going scenario-based planning process. The second dimension is that of the primary aim of the scenario work, this being either to raise questions, or to answer them — and thus aid decision making.

The combination of these two dimensions results in four purposes of scenario work, namely:

• Sense-making: a one-off ‘exploratory question-raising scenario project’;
• Developing strategy: a one-off ‘decision-making scenario project’;
• Anticipation: an ‘on-going exploratory scenario activity’; and
• Action-based organizational learning: an ‘on-going decision-making activity’.

Van der Heijden continues by suggesting that these four purposes represent a hierarchy of interconnected aims serving the ultimate goal of “strategic success” in which organizational learning is the “overarching broad organisational skill” achieved when the scenario work is an on-going decision-making activity [15, page 162].

Benefits of Scenarios

Source: Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?

The (mainly practitioner-based) literature contains many testimonials as to the use and organizational benefits of scenarios, which we group under the following headings:

3.1. Enhanced perception


Scenario techniques reportedly enhance corporate and individual perception as they provide a framework for managers to understand and evaluate trends and events as they happen [16], and managers involved in scenario exercises supposedly become better observers of the business environment, more attuned to discerning changes [17]. Porter [18] suggests that scenarios help managers to make explicit their implicit assumptions about the future, and to think beyond the confines of conventional wisdom. This, combined with the fact that scenarios often challenge conventional wisdom and complacency by shifting the “perceptual anchors” from which people view the future, reduces the likelihood of managers and organizations making big mistakes in the future and/or of being caught unaware [19,20].


3.2. A structure for dealing with uncertainty


Scenarios provide a structure for thinking aimed at attacking complexity by allowing managers to deal more openly and explicitly with acknowledged uncertainty [21,16], to arrive at a deeper understanding of what is significant, and to identify what needs to be dealt with – and what is transient and can be ignored [11,22]. Bunn and Salo [23] suggest that, by emphasizing that there are a range of possible futures rather than a single-point future, scenarios reduce the bias for underestimating uncertainties. This is echoed by Docherty and McKiernan [24] who state that “the greatest contribution of scenario planning lies in its active engagement of actors in its process and its power to enable them to think about complexity and uncertainty in external contexts, and then how they might shape the external environment to their own strategic ends” (p. 10).


3.3. Integration of corporate planning functions


Scenario techniques provide a good middle ground between relying on informal and intuitive techniques, and being bound by the methodological constraints of more formal, quantitative techniques. As a result, a greater variety of information and wider company participation can be incorporated into the forecasting and planning process when scenario planning is used [16]. Other authors [25,26] add that scenarios are also able to combine topical intelligence and structure seemingly disparate environmental factors into a useful framework for decision making in a way that no other planning models can.


3.4. A communications tool


According to Allen [21], the communications qualities of scenarios are overwhelming as they provide a rational and non-threatening framework for discussion, even with those outside of the organization [27]. Durance and Godet [28] state that scenarios are also an effective means of rallying employees and communicating strategy across the organization. Bezhold [29] suggests that the scenarios can be used as a marketing and educational campaign throughout the organization. Ringland [25] adds that, by sharing its scenarios with the outside world, an organization can provide the context for dialog with its stakeholders — enabling it to influence its external environment. An added benefit [30] is that the collegiality which usually emerges in a scenario planning exercise does not evaporate once the scenario exercise is complete. Van der Heijden [15,31] reports that Royal Dutch Shell’s scenarios emerged as a powerful management tool by which senior management was able to influence decision-making at all levels throughout the organization, without becoming directly involved in the process or minutiae of the subsequent, scenario-based, evaluation of decisions. This was achieved by making the scenarios the context for key strategic decisions — thus uniting the geographically dispersed, disparate, and decentralized business units in developing a common strategy [28].


3.5. Organizational learning


Although scenario planning was initially understood as a tool for “thinking the unthinkable” [32], a body of literature has subsequently developed around the value of scenarios in terms of individual and organizational learning [11]. This is because scenario exercises ostensibly provide a politically-safe team learning environment and a rich learning process that stimulates creativity [11,15,33–37]. As models of future business environments, scenarios provide a vehicle for pseudo-experimentation in terms of formulating strategic options and then examining the consequences of these options in a range of future environments [15,30,31,38]. By having to articulate their assumptions in a scenario exercise, managers can identify inconsistencies in their own thinking and that of their colleagues in a non-threatening environment [25,37]. At the same time, the necessity in scenario work to undertake detailed analysis of environmental driving forces and their causal relationships, forces individuals to examine their perceptions, stretch their mental models and to develop a shared view of uncertainty [15,31]. All of the foregoing leads to an increased confidence in decision-making [16] and moves the organization towards becoming, what has been termed, a “learning organization” [15].

Based upon our consideration of the above purposes and benefits of the use of scenario methods, we distil from the literature three main objectives of the application of scenario approaches, as follows:


1) Enhancing understanding: of the causal processes, connections and logical sequences underlying events — thus uncovering how a future state of the world may unfold;


2) Challenging conventional thinking: to reframe perceptions and change the mindsets of those within organizations; and


3) Improving decision making: to inform strategy development.

Support for this conclusion also comes from the work of Varum and Melo who, after undertaking a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the literature on scenario planning, argued that there is a consensus in the literature on three benefits of using scenarios, namely an “improvement of the learning process, improvement of the decision-making process, and identification of new issues and problems” [2, page.362].


Our three objectives are interlinked in that: firstly, understanding the connections, causal processes and logical sequences which determine how events may unfold to create different futures, will challenge conventional thinking and will also prove of benefit in improving organizational decision making and strategy; secondly, challenging conventional thinking, reframing perceptions and changing mind-sets should result in collective organizational learning; and, thirdly, collective organization learning should enhance organizational decision making and strategy — which in turn should enhance collective organizational learning.

Types of Scenarios

Source: An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?

  • Predictive
    • Trend
    • Whatif
  • Explorative
    • Framed
    • Unframed
  • Normative
    • Preserving
    • Transformational

Types of Uncertainty

Source: Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance

Source: A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning – Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy

Multiple Frames of Changes in Contextual Environment on the Transcational Environment

Source: Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy

Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation

Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation

Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation

Institutions and Methods of Scenario Planning

  • Shell/GBN Intuitive Logics Method
  • Oxford Scenario Planning Approach
  • La Prospective / M Godet
  • Rand Corporation
  • SRI International
  • GBN/Monitor/Deloitte/Center for Long View/Market Sensing and Scenario Planning

Source: Plausibility and probability in scenario planning

Source: The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Research Journals and Authors on Scenario Planning

Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Scenarios Application

  • Business
  • Non Profit Org
  • Philanthropic
  • Public Sector
  • Arts and Culture
  • Governance
  • National Security
  • Transnational Issues

My Related Posts

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

On Anticipation: Going Beyond Forecasts and Scenarios

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

Narrative, Rhetoric and Possible Worlds

What are Problem Structuring Methods?

Drama Theory: Acting Strategically

Frames in Interaction

Frames, Communication, and Public Policymaking

Frames, Framing and Reframing

Dialogs and Dialectics

Strategy | Strategic Management | Strategic Planning | Strategic Thinking

Key Sources of Research:

Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation

James Derbyshire a,∗, George Wright b

a Centre for Enterprise and Economic Development Research, Middlesex University, UK 

b Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, UK

International Journal of Forecasting 33 (2017) 254–266

Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?

GeorgeWrighta

RonBradfieldb

GeorgeCairnsca

Warwick Business School, Scarman Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK

bStrathclyde Business School, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

cSchool of Management, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia

Received 30 August 2012, Accepted 2 September 2012, Available online 29 September 2012.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 631-642

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

RonBradfielda

GeorgeWrightb1

GeorgeBurta2

GeorgeCairnsb3

KeesVan Der Heijdena4

aUniversity of Strathclyde, Graduate School of Business, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow G4 0QU, UK

bUniversity of Durham, Durham Business School, Mill Hill Lane, Durham DH1 3LB, UK

Available online 24 May 2005.

Futures
Volume 37, Issue 8, October 2005, Pages 795-812

How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges

AngelaWilkinsona

RolandKupersbc

DianaMangalagiude

aFutures Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK

bTHNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam, The Netherlands

cSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, UK

dReims Management School, Reims, France

eSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK

Received 19 December 2011, Revised 28 September 2012, Accepted 1 October 2012, Available online 27 December 2012.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 699-710

Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention

RafaelRamírezac

RikuÖstermanb

DanielGrönquistc

aSaïd Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford, OX1 1HP, UK

bItäpaja Ltd., Urakkatie 10-12 A 2, 00680 Helsinki, Finland

cNormannPartners AB, Engelbrektsgatan 9-11, SE-114 32 Stockholm, Sweden

Received 4 November 2011, Revised 21 October 2012, Accepted 24 October 2012, Available online 19 November 2012.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 825-838

Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?

RafaelRamireza1

AngelaWilkinsonab1

aSaid Business School, Oxford, UK

bSmith School of Enterprise and Environment, Oxford, UK

Received 19 March 2013, Revised 9 October 2013, Accepted 17 October 2013, Available online 22 November 2013.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 86, July 2014, Pages 254-264

Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning

Paul J.H.Schoemaker

George S.Day

Scott A.Snyder

Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

Received 18 December 2011, Revised 7 October 2012, Accepted 9 October 2012, Available online 20 December 2012.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 815-824

Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunctive fallacy in probability judgment.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983).

Psychological Review, 90, 293–315.

Scenarios and Forecasting: Two Perspectives

KeesVan Der Heijden

Received 1 December 1998, Accepted 1 January 1999, Available online 6 October 2000.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 65, Issue 1, September 2000, Pages 31-36

Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades

Celeste Amorim

VarumCarlaMelo

Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

Available online 18 November 2009.

Futures
Volume 42, Issue 4, May 2010, Pages 355-369

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method

GeorgeWrighta

PaulGoodwinb1

aDurham Business School, University of Durham, Mill Hill lane, Durham City, DH1 3lB, United Kingdom

bSchool of Management, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, United Kingdom

Available online 5 June 2009.

International Journal of Forecasting
Volume 25, Issue 4, October–December 2009, Pages 813-825

Living in the Futures

Harvard Business Review May 2013

https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures

Strategic reframing : the Oxford scenario planning approach

Rafael RamírezAngela Wilkinson

Oxford, UK : Oxford University Press, 2016.

Strategic Foresight Primer

Angela Wilkinson

Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow

James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1HP, UK

Received 10 March 2008
Accepted for publication 20 August 2008 Published 15 December 2008
Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/3/045017

2008 Environ. Res. Lett. 045017

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045017/pdf

HOW SCENARIOS BECAME CORPORATE STRATEGIES: ALTERNATIVE FUTURES AND UNCERTAINTY
IN STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Bretton Fosbrook

A Dissertation submitted to
The Faculty of Graduate Studies
in
Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Graduate Program in Science and Technology Studies York University
Toronto, Ontario

December 2017

Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda.

David Tucket, Antoine Mandel, Diana Mangalagiu, Allen Abramson, Jochen Hinkel, et al..

Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society, Taylor and Francis 2015, 27 (2), pp.213 – 242.

10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078 . hal-02057279

Scenarios Practices: In Search of Theory

Angela Wilkinson University of Oxford UK

Journal of Futures Studies, February 2009, 13(3): 107 – 114

Towards a relational concept of uncertainty: Incorporating the human dimension

Brugnach, M.1; A. Dewulf 2; C. Pahl-Wostl 1 and T. Taillieu 3

1. Universität Osnabrück, Germany
2. Wageningen University, The Netherlands
3. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium
Contact author: Marcela Brugnach, mbrugnac@usf.uos.de

Ambiguity: the challenge of knowing and deciding together

M. Brugnach a,*, H. Ingram b,c

a Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands 

b Southwest Center, University of Arizona, United States
c School of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, United States

environmental science & policy 15 (2012) 60–71

Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know. 

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu.

2008.

Ecology and Society13(2): 30. [online]

URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

Policy Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Supporting Policymaking in the Public Sector

WARREN E. WALKERa,b,*
a RAND Europe, Leiden, Netherlands
b Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

JOURNAL OF MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS

 JMultiCritDecisAnal9: 11–27 (2000)

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.201.3202&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Integrated management of natural resources: dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames

A. Dewulf*, M. Craps*, R. Bouwen*, T. Taillieu* and C. Pahl-Wostl**

*Center for Organizational and Personnel Psychology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Tiensestraat 102, 3000 Leuven, Belgium (E-mail: art.dewulf@psy.kuleuven.ac.be, marc.craps@psy.kuleuven.ac.be,rene.bouwen@psy.kuleuven.ac.be, tharsi.taillieu@psy.kuleuven.ac.be)
**Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabru ̈ck, Albrechtstrasse 28, Osnabru ̈ck, Germany (E-mail: pahl@usf.uni-osnabrueck.de)

More is not always better: Coping with ambiguity in natural resources management

M. Brugnach a, b, *, A. Dewulf c, H.J. Henriksen d, P. van der Keur d

a Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands
b Institute for Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Germany c Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands d Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Denmark

Journal of Environmental Management xxx (2010) 1e7

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE AND MANAGERIAL SENSEMAKING: WORKING THROUGH PARADOX

LOTTE S. LU ̈ SCHER Clavis Consultancy

MARIANNE W. LEWIS University of Cincinnati

Academy of Management Journal 2008, Vol. 51, No. 2, 221–240.

Sustainable Development: Mapping Different Approaches

Bill Hopwood, Mary Mellor, Geoff O’Brien Sustainable Cities Research Institute
6 North Street East,
University of Northumbria,

Newcastle on Tyne, NE1 8ST
Tel: 0191 227-3500 Fax: 0191 227-3066

E-mails:
Bill Hopwood: william.hopwood@unn.ac.uk

Sustainable Development, 13. pp. 38-52. ISSN 0968-0802

Published by: Wiley-Blackwell
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.244 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.244&gt;

Click to access Mapping_Sustainable_Development.pdf

The Environmental Goffman: Toward an Environmental Sociology of Everyday Life

BRADLEY H. BREWSTER

Gaylord Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA

MICHAEL MAYERFELD BELL

Department of Community & Environmental Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA

Society and Natural Resources, 23:45–57 Copyright # 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0894-1920 print=1521-0723 online
DOI: 10.1080/08941920802653505

An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?

H.R. Maier a, *, J.H.A. Guillaume b, H. van Delden a, c, G.A. Riddell a, M. Haasnoot d, e, J.H. Kwakkel e

a School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide SA 5005, Australia b Water & Development Research Group (WDRG), Aalto University, Tietotie 1E, Espoo 02150, Finland
c Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, Hertogsingel 11B, 6211 NC Maastricht, The Netherlands
d Deltares, Fresh Water Department, Delft, The Netherlands

e Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology Policy and Management, Delft, The Netherlands

Environmental Modelling & Software

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014

https://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/design/article/viewFile/1723/1324

Towards a user’s guide to scenarios – a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Lena Borjeson1, Mattias Hojer1, Karl-Henrik Dreborg1,3, Tomas Ekvall2, Goran Finnveden1,3

Environmental strategies research – fms, Department of Urban studies, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm

Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg.

Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Stockholm

https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/servlets/purl/20688312

The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins

foresight, Vol. 9 Iss: 1 pp. 5 – 25 2007

Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models

J.J. Warmink a, *, J.A.E.B. Janssen a, b, M.J. Booij a, M.S. Krol a

a Department of Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands b Waterboard Rijn and IJssel, P.O. Box 148, 7000 AC Doetinchem, the Netherlands

Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 1518e1527

Wicked Problems: Implications for Public Policy and Management

Brian W. Head1 and John Alford2,3

Administration & Society 2015, Vol. 47(6) 711–739

DOI: 10.1177/0095399713481601

ORGANIZATIONS AS RHETORIC: KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE FIRMS AND THE STRUGGLE WITH AMBIGUITY

MATSALVESSON Universityof Gothenburg

Journal of Management Studies: 30:6 November 1993 0022-2380

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-6486.1993.tb00476.x

Forty years of wicked problems literature: forging closer links to policy studies,

Brian W. Head (2019)

Policy and Society, 38:2, 180-197, DOI: 10.1080/14494035.2018.1488797

https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1488797

Uncovering the origin of ambiguity in nature-inclusive flood infrastructure projects

Ronald E. van den Hoek 1Marcela Brugnach 1Jan P. M. Mulder 1,2 and Arjen Y. Hoekstra 1

Ecology and Society 19(2): 51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-06416-190251

Coping with Complexity, Uncertainty and Ambiguity in Risk Governance: A Synthesis

Ortwin Renn, Andreas Klinke, Marjolein van Asselt

AMBIO (2011) 40:231–246
DOI 10.1007/s13280-010-0134-0

Risk frames and multiple ways of knowing: Coping with ambiguity in oil spill risk governance in the Norwegian Barents Sea

Tuuli Parviainena,⁎, Annukka Lehikoinenb, Sakari Kuikkaa, P.ivi Haapasaaria

a University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, FI-

00014 Helsinki Finland

b University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Kotka Maritime Research Center,

Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.04.009

Environmental Science & Policy

Volume 98, August 2019, Pages 95-111

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111930022X

Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance

Art Dewulf and Robbert Biesbroek

Public Administration and Policy group, Wageningen University and Research, Netherlands

POLICY AND SOCIETY
2018, VOL. 37, NO. 4, 441–458 https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484

Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward

J. J. Warmink1 & M. Brugnach1 & J. Vinke-de Kruijf2 & R. M. J. Schielen1,3 & D. C. M. Augustijn1

Received: 1 March 2017 / Accepted: 21 June 2017 /

Water Resour Manage (2017) 31:4587–4600 DOI 10.1007/s11269-017-1767-6

The Implications of Complexity for Integrated Resources Management

C. Pahl-Wostl

Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Germany

Click to access Keynote_Pahl.pdf

A relational approach to deal with ambiguity in multi-actor governance for sustainability

M. Craps1 & M. F. Brugnach2

1Centre for Economics and Corporate Sustainability,
KU Leuven, Belgium
2Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands

WIT Transactions on Ecology and The Environment, Vol 199, © 2015 WIT Press www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541 (on-line)
doi:10.2495/RAV150201

Futures Studies: Theories and Methods

Sohail Inayatullah

https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/futures-studies-theories-and-methods/

Scenario thinking and usage among development actors

William Robert Avis

University of Birmingham 18 October 2017

Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis

Overview, assessment, and selection criteria

Hannah Kosow Robert Gaßner

DIE Research Project “Development Policy: Questions for the Future”

Bonn 2008

German Development Institute

SCENARIO PLANNING FOR STRATEGIC REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

Christopher Zegras1, Joseph Sussman2, Christopher Conklin3 Forthcoming (March 2004) in

ASCE Journal of Urban Planning and Development

How Scenario Planning Influences Strategic Decisions

A recent study sheds light on how the use of scenario planning affects executives’ strategic choices.

Shardul Phadnis, Chris Caplice, and Yossi Sheffi

May 27, 2016 MIT Sloan Management Review

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-scenario-planning-influences-strategic-decisions/

How to Make Sense of Weak Signals

There’s no sense in denying it: interpreting weak signals into useful decision making takes time and focus. These three stages can help you see the periphery—and act on it—much more clearly.

Paul J.H. Schoemaker and George S. Day

April 01, 2009

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-to-make-sense-of-weak-signals/

A Review of Scenario Planning Literature

T Chermack et al

Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy

Rather than trying to predict the future, organizations need to strengthen their abilities to cope with uncertainty. A new approach to scenario planning can help companies reframe their long-term strategies by developing several plausible scenarios.

Rafael Ramírez, Steve Churchhouse, Alejandra Palermo, and Jonas Hoffmann

June 13, 2017

Sloan Management Review

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/using-scenario-planning-to-reshape-strategy/

Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking

Paul J.H. Schoemaker

SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW/WINTER 1995

Chapter 10
The Learning Dimension of Adaptive Capacity: Untangling the Multi-level Connections

Alan Diduck

Adaptive Capacity and Environmental Governance

Derek Armitage l Ryan Plummer Editors

Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development

Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise

by Ulf Pillkahn

ISBN 978-3-89578-304-3

Risk frames and multiple ways of knowing: Coping with ambiguity in oil spill risk governance in the Norwegian Barents Sea

Tuuli Parviainena,⁎, Annukka Lehikoinenb, Sakari Kuikkaa, P.ivi Haapasaaria

a University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, FI-00014 Helsinki Finland

b University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Kotka Maritime Research Center, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland

Environmental Science and Policy 98 (2019) 95–111

How Issues Get Framed and Reframed When Different Communities Meet: A Multi-level Analysis of a Collaborative Soil Conservation Initiative in the Ecuadorian Andes

ART DEWULF1*, MARC CRAPS1 and GERD DERCON2

1Centre for Organizational and Personnel Psychology, Katholieke Universiteit, Leuven, Belgium

2International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibidan, Nigeria

Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology

J. Community Appl. Soc. Psychol., 14: 177–192 (2004)

Defining Uncertainty

A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support

W.E. WALKER1, P. HARREMO€EES2, J. ROTMANS3, J.P. VAN DER SLUIJS5, M.B.A. VAN ASSELT4, P. JANSSEN6 AND M.P. KRAYER VON KRAUSS2

1Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands,

2Environment & Resources DTU, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark,

3International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University, The Netherlands,

4Faculty of Arts and Culture, Maastricht University, The Netherlands,

5Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovations, Utrecht University, The Netherlands, and

6Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands

Integrated Assessment

2003, Vol. 00, No. 0, pp. 000–000

1389-5176/03/0000-000

A Structured Approach to Strategic Decisions

Reducing errors in judgment requires a disciplined process.

Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony

MIT Sloan Management Review

March 04, 2019

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/a-structured-approach-to-strategic-decisions/

A move toward scenario analysis

William R.Huss

Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures

Ilkka Tuomi

1Meaning Processing Ltd, Helsinki, Finland

2Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study (STIAS), Wallenberg Research Centre at Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa

Received:21November2018 |  Revised:15January2019 |  Accepted:15January2019

DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.11

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.11

A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning
– Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy

Prof. Dr. Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner and Dr. Stephan Stubner

2010

Click to access ap-no-6-scenario-based-approach-to-strategic-planning.pdf

The 4 Whys of Scenario Thinking

M Brain

About the Kearney-Oxford Scenarios Programme

AT Kearney

https://www.kearney.com/web/atkearney-oxford-scenarios-programme/scenarios-programme

Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Victor Tiberius

Tiberius European Journal of Futures Research (2019) 7:7 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-019-0160-5

Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research

Elisabeth A. Lloyd · Vanessa J. Schweizer

Synthese (2014) 191:2049–2088 DOI 10.1007/s11229-013-0353-6

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-013-0353-6

Cross-impact balances:
A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis

Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle T,1
University of Stuttgart, Institute for Social Sciences V, Research Unit Risk and Sustainability, Seidenstr. 36,

70174 Stuttgart, Germany

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73 (2006) 334–361

ScenarioWizard 4.3. Constructing Consistent Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis.

Manual.

Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

https://docplayer.net/81069764-Scenariowizard-4-3-constructing-consistent-scenarios-using-cross-impact-balance-analysis-manual-wolfgang-weimer-jehle.html

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

Vanessa Jine Schweizer and Elmar Kriegler

2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 044011

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044011/meta

Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations

DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0908-z

Vanessa Jine Schweizer

Brian C. O’Neill

The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques

DOI:10.1108/14636680710727516

Peter Bishop

Andy Hines

Terry Collins

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228623754_The_current_state_of_scenario_development_An_overview_of_techniques

Should Probabilities Be Used with Scenarios?

Stephen M. Millett Futuring Associates LLC USA

Plausibility and probability in scenario planning

DOI:10.1108/FS-08-2012-0061

Rafael Ramirez

Cynthia Selin

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263366784_Plausibility_and_probability_in_scenario_planning

Click to access ACCEPTED_Plausibility_and_Probability_in_Scenario_Planning_March_24_2013.pdf

Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

Volker Grienitz & Michael Hausicke & André-Marcel Schmidt

Eur J Futures Res (2014) 15:27

DOI 10.1007/s40309-013-0027-0

Foundations of Scenario Planning: The Story of Pierre Wack

By Thomas J Chermack

2017

ROLE OF SCENARIO PLANNING AND PROBABILITIES
IN ECONOMIC DECISION PROBLEMS – LITERATURE REVIEW AND NEW CONCLUSIONS

Helena GASPARS-WIELOCH page1image38230256*

Department of Operations Research, Faculty of Informatics and Electronic Economy, Poznan University of Economics and Business, Al. Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875, Poznań, Poland

*E-mail: helena.gaspars@ue.poznan.pl

https://doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.011

http://cibmee.vgtu.lt/index.php/verslas/2019/paper/viewFile/422/123

Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning

McKinsey on Finance Number 55, Summer 2015

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/dotcom/client_service/Corporate%20Finance/MoF/Issue%2055/MoF55_Overcoming_obstacles_to_effective_scenario_planning.ashx

Increasing the effectiveness of participatory scenario development through codesign

Marissa F. McBride 1Kathleen F. Lambert 2Emily S. Huff 3Kathleen A. Theoharides 4Patrick Field 5 and Jonathan R. Thompson 1

1Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, Massachusetts, 2Harvard Forest, Harvard University and Science Policy Exchange, Petersham, Massachusetts, 3Michigan State University, Department of Forestry, East Lansing, Michigan, 4Climate and Global Warming Solutions, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, Boston, Massachusetts, 5Consensus Building Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts

 E&S HOME > VOL. 22, NO. 3 > Art. 16

https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss3/art16/

Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities

Victor Tiberius a,⁎, Caroline Siglow a, Javier Sendra-García b

a University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany

b Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7467075/

Plotting Your Scenarios

Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz

GBN

PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES: SCENARIO ANALYSIS, DECISION TREES AND SIMULATIONS

Click to access probabilistic.pdf

Navigating Uncertain Times
A Scenario Planning Toolkit for the Arts & Culture Sector

Literature Review

Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation

DOI:10.1002/smj.4250140304

Paul Schoemaker

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220041993_Multiple_Scenario_Development_Its_Conceptual_and_Behavioral_Foundation

FORESIGHT: THE MANUAL

UNDP

UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE) 

Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries

UNDP

UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE) 

https://www.undp.org/publications/foresight-strategic-long-term-planning-tool-developing-countries

Plausibility indications in future scenarios

Wiek, A., Withycombe Keeler, L., Schweizer, V. and Lang, D.J. (2013)

Int. J. Foresight and Innovation Policy, Vol. 9, Nos. 2/3/4, 2013

Plausibility and probability in scenario planning

Rafael Ramirez and Cynthia Selin

Foresight · March 2014

DOI: 10.1108/FS-08-2012-0061

Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning

Paul J.H. Schoemaker ⁎, George S. Day, Scott A. Snyder Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 815–824

The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins

Foresight · February 2007

DOI: 10.1108/14636680710727516

Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures

Ilkka Tuomi1,2

Futures Foresight Sci. 2019;1:e11.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.11

Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development

Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise

by Ulf Pillkahn

Book

An Analysis and Categorization of Scenario Planning Scholarship from 1995-2016

Thomas J. Chermack Colorado State University USA

DOI:10.6531/JFS.201806.22(4).0004

Journal of Futures Studies, June 2018, 22(4): 45–60

https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2018-2/vol-22-no-4-june-2018/an-analysis-and-categorization-of-scenario-planning-scholarship-from-1995-2016/

A review of scenario planning

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-review-of-scenario-planning-Amer-Daim/ad450aaf200096756634e84549da77c20963ae6a

Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: pitfalls and potential

Innovation, Dynamic Capabilities and Leadership

Paul J.H. Schoemaker, Sohvi Leih, David J. Teece March 23, 2018

Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK

Professor R. Bradley MacKay a,⁎, Dr. Veselina Stoyanova b

a The Gateway, North Haugh, School of Management, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland KY16 9RJ, UK

b Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow, Scotland G4 0QU, UK

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 88–100

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302451

Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities

Victor Tiberius a,⁎, Caroline Siglow a, Javier Sendra-García b 

University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany

Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

Journal of Business Research 121 (2020) 235–242

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7467075/

How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges

AngelaWilkinsona

RolandKupersbc

DianaMangalagiude

aFutures Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK

bTHNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam, The Netherlands

cSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, UK

dReims Management School, Reims, France

eSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 699-710

Special Issue: Scenario Method: Current developments in theory and practice

Edited by George Wright, George Cairns, Ron Bradfield

Volume 80, Issue 4, 

Pages 561-838 (May 2013)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162512002971

Scenario methodology: New developments in theory and practice Introduction to the Special Issue

George Wright a,⁎, George Cairns b, Ron Bradfield c

a Warwick Business School, Coventry, UK
b RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
c Strathclyde Business School, Glasgow, UK

Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2013) xxx–xxx

Scanning the Periphery

by 

HBR 2005

Scenario Planning Literature

Recent Articles

Bouhalleb, Arafet and Ali Smida, “Scenario Planning: An investigation of the construct and its measurements,” Wiley Online Library, February 9, 2018

Favato, Giampiero, “Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach,” June 17, 2016

Gray, Jane, “Ofgem targets “flexible” scenario planning,” Network, October 12, 2016

Gray, Michael, “Scottish business scenario planning’ for independence over Brexit, minister confirms,” October 14, 2016

Hartung, Adam “The No. 1 Lesson from Hurricane Matthew and Brexit: Scenario Planning is Crucial,” October 7, 2016

Lang, Trudi, and Rafael Ramirez, “Building new social capital with scenario planning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Science Direct, July 8, 2017

Phadnis, Shardul, “How Scenario Planning Influences Strategic Decisions,” MIT Sloan Management Review, Summer 2016

Powch, Andrew, “Overcoming Uncertainty with the Aid of Scenario Planning,” Industry Week, October 17, 2017

Raford, Noah, “Online foresight platforms: Evidence for their impact on scenario planning and strategic foresight,” Elsevier, August 2015

Ramírez, R., & Selin, C., “Plausibility and probability in scenario planning,” Foresight, 16(1), 54-74, March 4, 2014

Ramirez, Rafael, Sheve Churchhouse, Alejandra Palermo, and Jonas Hoffman, Using Scenario Planning to Reshape StrategyMIT Sloan Management Review, June 13, 2017

Ramirez, Rafael, “How scenario planning makes strategy more robust,” Oxford Answers, January 28, 2020

Schoemaker, PJH, Scenario planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking, MIT Sloan Management Review, 1995

Schwarze, Margaret and Lauren J. Taylor, “Managing Uncertainty—Harnessing the Power of Scenario Planning,” The New England Journal of Medicine, July 20, 2017  

Wilkinson, A. and Kupers, R. “Living in the Futures,” Harvard Business Review, May 2013

Wilkinson, A. and Ramirez, R. “2010 Canaries in the Mind,” Journal of Future Studies

Books

Cairns, George and George Wright, Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World, Palgrave Macmillan, 2nd ed., 2018 

Harris, Jared D. and Michael J. Lenox, The Strategist’s Toolkit, Darden Business Publishing, 2013

Laudicina, Paul, World Out of Balance: Navigating Global Risks to Seize Competitive Advantage, McGraw Hill, 2005

Ramirez, Rafael and Angela Wilkinson, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press, May 24, 2016

Ramirez, Rafael, John W. Selsky and Kees van der Heijden, Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios, earthscan, 2010

Schwartz, Peter, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Crown Business Publishing, 1996

Van Der Heijden, Kees, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2010

Wade, Woody, Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2012


Have question or additional suggestions? Please contact Terry Toland