Credit Chains and Production Networks

Credit Chains and Production Networks

There are three kind of flows in a Supply Chain

  • Goods
  • Information
  • Financial

 

Credit Terms in a Supplier Buyer contracts determine payment delays which accumulate in current accounts of a Firm.

  • Account Receivables
  • Account Payables

 

Credit Relations

  • Bank to Bank
  • Bank to Firm
  • Firm to Firm

Dyad of Credit Relations

  • Supplier – Buyer

 

Triad of Credit Relations

  • Supplier – Bank – Buyer

Sources of Systemic Risk

  • Failure of a Firm and its impact on Suppliers and Customers (Flow of Goods)
  • Failure of a Bank and its impact on Trade Credit
  • Credit Contraction due to de-risking by the Banks
  • Decline in Correspondent Banking relations and its impact on Trade Finance

 

From Credit Chains and Sectoral Co-movement: Does the Use of Trade
Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?

Trade credit is an important source of short-term financing for firms, not only in the U.S., as documented by Petersen and Rajan (1997), but also around the World. For instance, accounts payables are larger than short-term debt in 60 percent of the countries covered by Worldscope. Also, across the world most firms simultaneously receive credit from their suppliers and grant it to their customers, which tend to be concentrated on specific sectors.  These characteristics of trade credit financing have led some authors to propose it as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of idiosyncratic shocks. The intuition behind the mechanism is straightforward; a firm that faces a default by its customers may run into liquidity problems that force it to default to its own suppliers. Therefore, in a network of firms that borrow from each other, a temporary shock to the liquidity of some firms may cause a chain reaction in which other firms also get in financial difficulties, thus resulting in a large and persistent decline in aggregate activity. This idea was first formalized by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) in a partial equilibrium setting, and has been recently extended to a general equilibrium environment by Cardoso-Lecourtois (2004), and Boissay (2006) who have also provided evidence of the potential quantitative importance of the mechanism by calibrating their models to the cases of Mexico and the U.S., respectively.

From Ontology of Bankruptcy Diffusion through Trade Credit
Channel

A supply network is a network of entities interacting to transform raw material into finished product for customers. Since interdependencies among supply network members on material, information, and finance are becoming increasingly intensive, financial status of one firm not only depends on its own management, but also on the performance and behaviours of other members. Therefore, understanding the financial flows variability and the material interactions is a key to quantify the risk of a firm. Due to the complex structure and dynamic interactions of modern supply networks, there are some difficulties faced by pure analysis approaches in analyzing financial status of the supply network members and the high degree of nonlinear interactions between them. Mathematical and operation research models usually do not function very well for this kind of financial decision making. These models always start with many assumptions and have difficulties modeling such complex systems that include many entities, relationships, features, parameters, and constraints. In addition, traditional modeling and analysis tools lack the ability to predict the impact of a specific event on the performance of the entire supply network.  Current financial data analysis with large volumes of structure data cannot offer the full picture and intrinsic insights into the risk nature of a company. Motivated by the literature gap in risk monitoring in investment background and limitations of analysis approaches for handling bankruptcy contagion phenomenon, we propose an ontological approach to present a formal, shared conceptualization of this domain knowledge.

From Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis

The severe recession that is hitting the global economy, with very low or even negative growth rates, has caused widespread contractions in international trade, both in developed and developing countries. World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast that exports will decline by roughly 9% in volume terms in 2009 due to the collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades. The contraction in developed countries will be particularly severe with exports falling by 10%. In developing countries, which account for one-third of world trade, exports will shrink by some 2% to 3% in 2009.

The contraction in international trade has been accompanied by a sharp decline in the availability of trade finance. This decline is only partly explained by the contraction in demand: according to a BAFT (Banker’s Association for Trade and Finance) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) joint survey (2009), flows of trade finance to developed countries have fallen by 6% relative to the previous year, more than the reduction in trade flows, suggesting that part of the fall reflects a disruption of financial intermediation. The contraction in value of trade finance has also been accompanied by a sharp increase in its price. Fear that the decline in trade finance and the increase in its cost would accelerate the slowdown of world trade has triggered a number of government initiatives in support of trade finance (Chauffour and Farole,2009).

The situation is especially worrisome for firms operating in developing countries which rely heavily on trade finance to support both their exports and imports.1 With a restricted access to financing and an increased cost of financing, these firms may find difficulties in maintaining their production and trade activities.

 

Please see my related posts:

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) / Financial Supply Chain Management (F-SCM)

Production Chain Length and Boundary Crossings in Global Value Chains

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Development of Global Trade and Production Accounts: UN SEIGA Initiative

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

The Collapse of Global Trade during Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009

Understanding Global Value Chains – G20/OECD/WB Initiative

Economics of Trade Finance

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

Contagion in Financial (Balance sheets) Networks

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

LIQUIDITY, BUSINESS CYCLES, AND MONETARY POLICY

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
London School of Economics

John Moore
Edinburgh University and London School of Economics

27 November 2001

https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2008/fincycl/pdf/kimo.pdf

 

 

Credit Cycles

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki; John Moore

The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 105, No. 2.

(Apr., 1997),

http://www.nviegi.net/teaching/master/km.pdf

 

Credit chains

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Princeton University)

John Moore (University of Edinburgh)

Date January 1997

http://www.econ.ed.ac.uk/papers/id118_esedps.pdf

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/conferences/research-events—conferences-and-programs/~/media/files/research/events/1997_01-31/Kiyotaki_CreditChains.pdf

 

 

Credit and Business Cycles

N Kiyotaki

1998

https://www.princeton.edu/~kiyotaki/papers/Credit-and-BusinessCycles.pdf

 

 

Inter-Enterprise Credit and Adjustment  During Financial Crises: The Role of Firm Size

Fabrizio Coricelli

Marco Frigerio

July, 2 2016

https://cepr.org/sites/default/files/Coricelli%2C%20Fabrizio%20paper.pdf

 

 

Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks

Stefano Battiston, Domenico Delli Gatti, Mauro Gallegati,
Bruce Greenwald, Joseph E. Stiglitz

2007

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/sites/jstiglitz/files/2007_Credit_Chains.pdf

 

 

Trade Finance in Crisis : Market Adjustment or Market Failure ?

Jean-Pierre Chauffour

Thomas Farole

Date Written: July 1, 2009

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1437955

Resaleable debt and systemic risk

Jason Roderick Donaldson , Eva Micheler

2018

http://www.jrdonaldson.com/Papers/Donaldson-Micheler-Resaleable_Debt.pdf

 

Supply chains and credit-market shocks: Some implications for emerging markets,

Jinjarak, Yothin (2013)

ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 443

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/101241/1/770887406.pdf

 

 

Financial Amplification Mechanisms and the Federal Reserve’s Supply of Liquidity during the Crisis

Asani Sarkar
Jeffrey Shrader

Staff Report no. 431
February 2010

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr431.pdf

 

 

Aggregate Fluctuations and the Role of Trade Credit

Lin Shao

2017

https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/swp2017-37.pdf

 

 

Supply Chain Disruptions and Trade Credit

LU Yi OGURA Yoshiaki

TODO Yasuyuki ZHU Lianming

2017

https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/17e054.pdf

 

 

Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in  an Economy with Production Heterogeneity

Aubhik Khan

Julia K. Thomas

September 2013

https://www.aubhik-khan.net/KhanThomasDCTsept2013.pdf

 

 

Financial Frictions in Production Networks

Saki Bigio

Jennifer La’O

February 7, 2013

https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/sbigio/papers/FinancialFrictionsNetworks.pdf

 

Working Paper No. 67, April 2016

http://perueconomics.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/WP-67.pdf

 

 

The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy

Levent Altinoglu

October 16, 2016
http://blogs.bu.edu/levent/files/2015/10/Altinoglu_JMP_CurrentVersion.pdf

September 30, 2015

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/425a/fcb800d01a5b8dce9ed13a4a200bf51f6fed.pdf

 

Consolidated Bibliography

WTO

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/aid4tradesupplychain13_biblio_e.pdf

 

 

Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms

Shaowen Luo

December 4, 2015

http://www.economics.illinois.edu/seminars/documents/Luo.pdf

 

FDI, Trade Credit, and Transmission of Global Liquidity Shocks:
Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

Shu Lin and Haichun Ye

http://www.econ.cuhk.edu.hk/econ/images/content/news_event/seminars/2016-2017-2nd-semester/Lin–Ye_paper.pdf

 

 

Trade Credit, Financing Structure and Growth

Junjie Xia

October 27, 2016

http://www.junjiexia.com/uploads/7/6/7/2/76726065/jmp_oct16.pdf

 

The impact of corporate distress along the supply chain: evidences from United
States

Lucia Gibilaro

Gianluca Mattarocci

http://www.efmaefm.org/0EFMAMEETINGS/EFMA%20ANNUAL%20MEETINGS/2017-Athens/papers/EFMA2017_0526_fullpaper.pdf

 

 

Does credit crunch investments down?
New evidence on the real eects of the bank-lending channel

Federico Cinganoz Francesco Manaresix Enrico Settex

December 2013

http://www.federicocingano.eu/Credit_crunch_investments.pdf

 

Interwoven Lending, Uncertainty, and Liquidity Hoarding

Adam Zawadowski

December 13, 2017

http://www.personal.ceu.hu/staff/Adam_Zawadowski/papers/credit.pdf

 

 

Trade credit: Elusive insurance of rm growth

DENNIS BAMS, JAAP BOS and MAGDALENA PISA*

October 5, 2016

http://www.research.mbs.ac.uk/accounting-finance/Portals/0/Users/002/02/2/Trade%20credit%20Elusive%20insurance%20of%20firm%20growth%202016.pdf

 

 

Chain Reactions, Trade Credit and the Business Cycle

Miguel Cardoso-Lecourtois

http://fmwww.bc.edu/RePEc/esNASM04/up.4593.1075462930.pdf

 

From production networks to geographical economics.

Gérard Weisbuch, Stefano Battiston.

Journal ofEconomic Behavior and Organization, Elsevier, 2007, 64 (3- 4), pp.448

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00531863/document

 

 

Production networks and failure avalanches

Gerard Weisbuch
Stefano Battiston

March 5, 2018

https://arxiv.org/pdf/physics/0507101.pdf

 

 

Self-organised patterns in production networks

Gerard Weisbuch

October 10, 2005

http://www.lps.ens.fr/~weisbuch/gwcomplexus.pdf

 

 

Networks : Propagation of Shocks over Economic Networks

Daron Acemoglu

July 22, 2014.

https://economics.mit.edu/files/9790

 

 

Debt-Rank Analysis of Financial Distress Propagation on a Production Network in Japan

FUJIWARA Yoshi
University of Hyogo
TERAI Masaaki
RIKEN
FUJITA Yuji
Turnstone Research Institute, Inc.
SOUMA Wataru
Nihon University

https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/16e046.pdf

 

 

Operational causes of bankruptcy propagation in supply chain

Zhongsheng Hua ⁎, Yanhong Sun 1, Xiaoyan Xu

2011

http://isiarticles.com/bundles/Article/pre/pdf/48280.pdf

 

 

Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms

Shaowen Luo
September 20, 2015

http://www.econ.vt.edu/seminars/Seminar%20Papers/2016/10-02-15Luo.pdf

 

 

From Micro to Macro via Production Networks

Vasco M. Carvalho

http://www.crei.cat/wp-content/uploads/users/working-papers/carvalho_from_micro.pdf

 

 

Trade Credit and the  Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical
Analysis

Tor Jacobson and Erik von Schedvin
August 2012

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/81882/1/723939764.pdf

 

CREDIT MARKET DISRUPTIONS AND LIQUIDITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN

Anna M. Costello

August 8, 2017

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/sites/gsb/files/costello-anna-acctgcamp2017_0.pdf

 

Modeling defaults of companies in multi-stage supply chain networks

Kamil J.Mizgier, StephanM.Wagner,, JanuszA.Holyst

2010

http://mars.if.pw.edu.pl/~jholyst/Mizgier_etal_InPress_Modeling_defaults_of.pdf

 

 

 

The origins of scale-free production networks

Stanislao Gualdizand Antoine Mandelx

June 28, 2015

http://www.siecon.org/online/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/Gualdi.pdf

 

 

Optimization of order policies in supply networks

S. GÄottlich¤ M. Hertyy C. Ringhoferz

August 18, 2008

https://www.ki-net.umd.edu/pubs/files/FRG-2008-Ringhofer-Christian.FRG_Ringhofer_Orders080814.pdf

 

Financial Instability after Minsky: Heterogeneity, Agent Based Models and Credit
Networks

Domenico Delli Gatti

April 10, 2012

https://www.ineteconomics.org/uploads/papers/delli-gatti-domenico-berlin-paper.pdf

 

Measuring the Systemic Risk in Inter firm Transaction Networks

Makoto Hazama
And
Iichiro Uesugi

http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/28392/1/wp066.pdf

 

Systemic Risk Assessment in Complex Supply Networks

Anna Ledwoch, Alexandra Brintrup, J¨orn Mehnen, Ashutosh Tiwari

https://pure.strath.ac.uk/portal/files/66716085/Ledwoch_etal_SJ_2016_Systemic_risk_assessment_in_complex_supply_networks.pdf

 

TRADE CREDIT DEFAULTS AND LIQUIDITY PROVISION BY FIRMS

Reint Gropp
Frédéric Boissay

2007

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp753.pdf

 

The future of agent-based modelling.

Matteo Richiardi

Institute for New Economic Thinking and Nuffield College, Oxford, United Kingdom
Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri, Italy

This draft: June 2015

https://www.nuffield.ox.ac.uk/media/1702/abmfuture-v12.pdf

 

 

Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy

Domenico Delli Gatti
Mauro Gallegati
Bruce Greenwald
Alberto Russo
Joseph E. Stiglitz

http://terna.to.it/ABM-BaF09/presentations/DelliGatti%28presentation%29_ABM.pdf

 

 

Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?

Claudio Raddatz

The World Bank
March, 2007

http://www.webmeets.com/files/papers/LACEA-LAMES/2007/335/Credit_chains_051707_withtables.pdf

 

 

Linkages and spillovers in global production networks: firm-level analysis of the Czech automotive industry

Petr Pavlinek

Pavla Žížalová

https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1039&context=geoggeolfacpub

 

Ontology of Bankruptcy Diffusion through Trade Credit
Channel

Lin Cheng

Huaiqing Wang

Huaping Chen

https://50years.acs.org.au/content/dam/acs/50-years/journals/jrpit/JRPIT44.4.401.pdf

 

OPTIMAL ORDER AND DISTRIBUTION STRATEGIES IN PRODUCTION NETWORKS

Simone Gottlich, Michael Herty, and Christian Ringhofer

https://math.la.asu.edu/~chris/SpringerOpt10.pdf

 

Profitability, Trade Credit and Institutional Structure of Production

Michael Gofman
December 9, 2013

http://gofman.info/TC/Supplier-Customer%20Network.pdf

 

The Economics of Information and Financial
Networks

Stefano Battiston
July 22, 2016

https://simpolproject.eu/download/simpol-initiative-research/battiston2016information.pdf

 

Supply Chain Perspectives and Issues: A Literature Review

Albert Park
Gaurav Nayyar
Patrick Low

http://www.asiaglobalinstitute.hku.hk/en/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/supply-chain-perspectives-and-issues.pdf

 

 

LIAISONS DANGEREUSES: INCREASING CONNECTIVITY, RISK SHARING, AND SYSTEMIC RISK

Stefano Battiston
Domenico Delli Gatti
Mauro Gallegati
Bruce C. Greenwald
Joseph E. Stiglitz

http://www.nber.org/papers/w15611.pdf

 

 

Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis

Anna Maria C. Menichini

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/649481468314087810/pdf/WPS5112.pdf

 

 

Reducing the Probability of Bankruptcy Through Supply Chain Coordination

Xiaoyan Xu, Yanhong Sun, and Zhongsheng Hua

2010

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Yanhong_Sun5/publication/220508846_Reducing_the_Probability_of_Bankruptcy_Through_Supply_Chain_Coordination/links/573eac9d08ae298602e6e77a.pdf

 

 

Pathways towards instability in financial networks

Marco Bardoscia, Stefano Battiston Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli

2017

http://lims.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/bardoscia2017pathways-1.pdf

 

 

International Credit Supply Shocks

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchiy Andrea Ferreroz Alessandro Rebuccix

June 16, 2017

https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/events/2017/boston-policy-workshop/AlessandroRebucci.pdf?la=en

 

Risk Propagation through Payment Distortion in Supply Chains

Alejandro Serrano

Rogelio Oliva

Santiago Kraiselburd

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/5b5f/0e6d7dc9d4b4f6bcada884b71562791404ed.pdf

 

 

Payment Defaults and Interfirm Liquidity Provision

https://academic.oup.com/rof/article-abstract/17/6/1853/1591419

 

SYSTEMIC RISK: A SURVEY

BY OLIVIER DE BANDT
AND PHILIPP HARTMANN

November 2000

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/152469/1/ecbwp0035.pdf

 

 

Risk Propagation in Supply Chains

Alejandro Serrano

Rogelio Oliva

Santiago Kraiselburd

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2db1/f3278ab2a75ff11b0142fba19a4cf223805a.pdf

 

 

How Inventory Is (Should Be) Financed: Trade Credit in Supply Chains with Demand
Uncertainty and Costs of Financial Distress

Song (Alex) Yang, John R. Birge

http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/workshops/omscience/past/more/pdf/YangBirge_trade%20credit.pdf

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2746645

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1734682

 

 

The Supply Chain Effects of Bankruptcy

S. Alex Yang

John R. Birge, Rodney P. Parker

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6efb/86a8667f24af2c6a5cd7eb52bbd12b39697b.pdf

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.715.5812&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

Supply Chain Management: Supplier Financing Schemes and Inventory Strategies

Min Wang

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/programs/sites/programs/files/abstracts/Min_Wang_Dissertation.pdf

 

Foreign Investment and Supply Chains in Emerging Markets: Recurring Problems and Demonstrated Solutions

Theodore H. Moran

PIIE

2014

https://piie.com/publications/wp/wp14-12.pdf

 

Improving cash flow using credit management
The outline case

http://www.cimaglobal.com/Documents/ImportedDocuments/cid_improving_cashflow_using_credit_mgm_Apr09.pdf.pdf

 

CREDIT CHAINS AND THE PROPAGATION OF
FINANCIAL DISTRESS

2006

by Frederic Boissay

http://sdw.zentral-bank.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp573.pdf

 

Exposure to international crises: trade vs. financial contagion

Everett Grant

2016

https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp30.en.pdf?7b7cc950c1a2286d395ed8489bfde5c7

 

 

Credit Contagion and Trade Credit Supply:
Evidence from Small Business Data in Japan

TSURUTA Daisuke

https://www.rieti.go.jp/jp/publications/dp/07e043.pdf

 

 

The Price of Complexity in Financial Networks

Joseph Stiglitz

2017

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty/jstiglitz/sites/jstiglitz/files/The%20Price%20of%20Complexity%20in%20Financial%20Networks.pdf

 

 

The Price of Complexity in Financial Networks

S. Battiston

2017

https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/160913_slides_battison.pdf

 

 

 

Advertisements

Instant, Immediate, Real Time Retail Payment Systems (IIRT-RPS)

Instant, Immediate, Real Time Retail Payment Systems (IIRT-RPS)

 

There are Five different kinds of Payments

  • B2C Business to Consumer
  • C2B Consumer to Business
  • B2B Business to Business
  • Domestic P2P Peer to Peer
  • Cross Border P2P Peer to Peer

 

From Real-time payments are changing the reality of payments

IMPS

Existing Real Time Retail Payment Systems around the Globe

From THE U.S. PATH TO FASTER PAYMENTS FINAL REPORT PART ONE: THE FASTER PAYMENTS TASK FORCE APPROACH

IMPS2

Planned Real Tine Retail Payments Systems around the Globe

 

From Global Trends and Developments in Instant Payments

imps3

Current Payments Ecosystem

  • Faster Payments
  • ACH
  • Cards
  • Closed Loop
  • Distributed Ledger

 

From 2017 Advanced Payments Report

IMPS4

Evolving Landscape of Payment Systems

From 2017 Advanced Payments Report

imps5

 

New RTP Developments

 

From Federal Reserve Payment Trends Update

imps6

USA – The Clearing House RTP System

From Federal Reserve Payment Trends Update

imps7

USA – How Payment Platforms Compare?

  • Wires
  • Next Day ACH
  • NACHA Same Day ACH
  • EWS Zelle
  • TCH RTP
  • Mastercard Send

 

From Federal Reserve Payment Trends Update

imps8

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

Real-time payments are changing the reality of payments

Deloitte

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/us/Documents/strategy/us-cons-real-time-payments.pdf

 

 

 

THE U.S. PATH TO FASTER PAYMENTS
FINAL REPORT PART ONE: THE FASTER PAYMENTS TASK FORCE APPROACH

Federal Reserve

2017

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/US-path-to-faster-payments-pt1-201701.pdf

 

 

Zelle

https://www.zellepay.com

 

 

 

Real-Time Payments for P2P
.
Eric Foust
Early Warning
Mike Wolf

2017

http://www.rtpsummit.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/12.10-Zelle-53-RTP-conference-deck-005.pdf

 

 

Banks Re-enter the P2P Payments Fray: With Mobile, Will this Time Be Different?

By Terri Bradford, Payments Research Specialist

Fed Reserve

https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/psr/briefings/psr-briefingjan2017.pdf

 

 

 

Faster Payments Finds Its Future

NACHA

2016

https://web.nacha.org/system/files/resource/2017-08/Faster-Payments-Tracker-December-2016.pdf

 

 

 

Faster payments: Building a business, not just an infrastructure

McKinsey

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Financial%20Services/Our%20Insights/Faster%20payments%20Building%20a%20business%20not%20just%20an%20infrastructure/Faster%20payments.ashx

 

 

The Road to Faster Payments

As Real-Time Payments Rise, Payment Hubs See a Resurgence

The Clearing House

2017

https://www.theclearinghouse.org/research/banking-perspectives/2017/2017-q4-banking-perspectives/payment-hubs

 

 

 

Real-Time Payments and Settlement Comes to the United States

How U.S. Banks Can Realize the Full Opportunities of Immediate Payments for Their Customers

D+H

2016

https://www.pnc.com/content/dam/pnc-ideas/articles/D+H-US-Real-Time-Payments-and-Settlement-whitepaper-coauthored-PNC-TCH-15-April%202016.pdf

 

 

 

Real-Time, Cross-Border Payments Survey

2017

IPFA

http://ipf-a.org/wp-content/uploads/Real-time-Cross-Border-Payments-Final.pdf

 

 

 

Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payment System Federal Reserve Next Steps in the Payments Improvement Journey

Federal Reserve

2017

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/other20170906a1.pdf

 

 

 

Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payment System

Federal Reserve

2015

https://fedpaymentsimprovement.org/wp-content/uploads/strategies-improving-us-payment-system.pdf

 

 

 

Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payment System
Feb 2016 Progress Report

Fed Reserve

2016

https://www.w3.org/2016/02/usfed-criteria.pdf

 

 

Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payment System

Progress Report | January 2017

Federal Reserve

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/sips-progress-report-201701.pdf

 

 

 

Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payments System

Claudia Swendseid

2016

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/~/media/files/news_events/events/payments-swendseid.pdf?la=en

 

Strategies for Improving the U.S. Payment System

2015

http://aftweb.com/aws/AFT/asset_manager/get_file/110552

 

 

Making Payments Faster in the United States

Clearing House

2015

https://www.theclearinghouse.org/~/media/puertoricosamedayach2015/making%20payments%20faster%20in%20the%20us%20tim%20mills.pdf?la=en

 

 

 

The Clearing House RTP System “Back to The Future”: Emerging Payment Systems Legal and Regulatory Issues

2017

https://www.calbankers.com/sites/main/files/file-attachments/back_to_the_future_emerging_payment_systems_-_krebs.pdf

 

 

The Federal Reserve Faster Payments and Secure Payments Task Forces
2016 Smart Card Alliance Payments Summit

April 5, 2016

https://www.securetechalliance.org/secure/events/20160404/PACIFICA-7_TUE_445_AADLAND_Smart-Card-Alliance_Faster-and-Secure-Payments-Task-Forces_4-5-16.pdf

 

 

 

Understanding and Regulating Twenty-First Century Payment Systems: The Ripple Case Study

Marcel T. Rosner
Delaware Court of Chancery
Andrew Kang
University of Michigan Law School

2016

https://repository.law.umich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1239&context=mlr

 

 

 

US Retail Payment Instruments and Systems

Structure, Transformation & Public Policy

NY Fed Reserve

2015

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/banking/international/15-Retail-Payments-2015-Littman.pdf

 

 

 

Digital Payments Strategy for U.S. Retail Banks

Cognizant

2015

https://www.cognizant.com/whitepapers/Digital-Payments-Strategy-for-U.S.-Retail-Banks-codex1358.pdf

 

 

US Real Time Payments Technology Playbook

The Clearing House

2016

https://www.theclearinghouse.org/-/media/tch/pay%20co/rtp/tch%20rtp%20technology%20playbook%20111716%20v1.pdf?la=en

 

 

 

16 in 2016: Trailblazing trends in global payments

McKinsey

2016

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Financial%20Services/Our%20Insights/16%20in%202016%20Trailblazing%20trends%20in%20global%20payments/16%20in%202016%20Trailblazing%20trends%20in%20global%20payments_2015.ashx

 

 

 

Earthport

https://www.earthport.com/

 

 

 

Flavors of the Fast

A trip around the world in immediate payments

FIS

https://www.fisglobal.com/-/media/FISGlobal/Files/Report/Flavours_Of_Fast.pdf

 

 

 

Global Trends and Developments in Instant payments

Edger Dunn

14th February, 2017

http://edgardunn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/MPE-Track-A-Afternoon-Session-Global-Trends-and-Developments-in-Instant-Payments-Ulf-Geismar-14-02-2017-VF-1.pdf

 

 

 

EXECUTIVE GUIDE TO IMMEDIATE/ REAL-TIME PAYMENTS

Accenture

https://www.aciworldwide.com/-/media/files/collateral/trends/executive-guide-to-immediate-payments-tl.pdf

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS IN A DIGITAL WORLD

Accenture

2017

https://www.accenture.com/t20171006T071036Z__w__/us-en/_acnmedia/PDF-62/Accenture-International-Payments-Digital-World.PDF

 

 

 

Ripple as an Innovative Solution to the Ways We Pay

RIPPLE

https://ripple.com/files/candian_comment_letter.pdf

 

 

 

Instant revolution of payments?

The quest for real-time payments

Deutsche Bank

2015

https://bravenewcoin.com/assets/Industry-Reports-2015/Deutsche-Bank-Research-Instant-revolution-of-payments-The-quest-for-real-time-payments.PDF

 

 

 

Retail payments and the real economy

ECB

Iftekhar Hasan, Tania De Renzis
and Heiko Schmiedel

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1572.pdf?0568b27871896eb01f54b0c4c40a8f63

 

 

 

NATIONAL RETAIL PAYMENT SYSTEMS TO SUPPORT FINANCIAL INCLUSION

AFI

2017

https://www.afi-global.org/sites/default/files/publications/2017-10/DFS_GN_29_stg4.pdf

 

 

 

Real-time payments for real-time banking
How banks can seize the full opportunities of immediate payments

Accenture

2015

https://www.accenture.com/t20151002T215256__w__/us-en/_acnmedia/Accenture/Conversion-Assets/DotCom/Documents/Global/PDF/Dualpub_22/Accenture-Banking-Realtime-Payments-Realtime-Bank.pdf

 

 

 

The New Payments Platform: Fast-Forward to the Future

Cognizant

https://www.cognizant.com/InsightsWhitepapers/the-new-payments-platform-fast-forward-to-the-future-codex1299.pdf

 

 

 

24/7 Domestic Real-time Payments

SWIFT

http://www.alfi.lu/sites/alfi.lu/files/files/16577_Expl1_SWIFT2020_2.pdf

 

 

Innovations in retail payments

Report of the Working Group on Innovations in Retail Payments

BIS

May 2012

https://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d102.pdf

 

 

Fast payments – Enhancing the speed and availability of retail payments

BIS

November 2016

 

https://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d154.pdf

 

Is a Global Real-Time Payment System Possible?

TCH

2015

https://www.theclearinghouse.org/research/2015/2015-q3-banking-perspectives/global-real-time-payments

Federal Reserve Payment Trends Update

2017

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

http://www.maafp.org/resources/Presentations/04192017%20Retail%20Payments.pdf

 

 

 

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RETAIL PAYMENT SYSTEM

Hal S. Scott

Nomura Professor and Director, Program on International Financial Systems Harvard Law School

December 16, 2014

 

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/16883011/hal-scott—mastercard-retail-payment-systems.pdf?sequence=1

 

Mechanism Design for Near Real-Time Retail Payment and Settlement Systems

Zhiling GUO
Singapore Management University, ZHILINGGUO@smu.edu.sg

Robert John UFFMAN
Singapore Management University, rkau man@smu.edu.sg

Mei LIN
Singapore Management University, mlin@smu.edu.sg

Dan MA

2015

 

http://ink.library.smu.edu.sg/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3494&context=sis_research

 

 

 

2017 Advanced Payments Report

Edgar Dunn & Company

2017

http://edgardunn.com/2017/06/2017-advanced-payments-report/

Network Economics of Block Chain and Distributed Ledger Technology

Network Economics of Block Chain and Distributed Ledger Technology

 

Quadruple Accounting System

Morris Copeland, and Hyman Minsky emphasized quadruple entry accounting system envisioning interrelated interlocking balance sheets of economic agents.  Interlocking balance sheets create a network of economic agents.

I attach a slide from a presentation by Marc Lavoie given at Minsky Summer school in 2010 at the Levy Institute of Economics (Bard College).

 

Minsky

 

There are several FINTECH innovations which are bringing about dramatic changes in the financial services business.

  • Block Chain and Distributed Ledgers
  • Payment Banks
  • Retail P2P Payment services
  • Mobile Payments
  • Secured Wallets
  • Domestic Real Time Payments and Transfers
  • Cross Border Near Real time Money Transfers

 

Block Chain and Distributed Ledgers, in my opinion, are/can be implementation of quadruple accounting principles envisioned by Morris Copeland and Hyman Minsky.  Two economic agents engage in financial transactions which are recorded in distributed ledgers.

Some of the key components of distributed ledger technology are:

  • Peer-To-Peer Networking
  • Cryptography
  • Distributed Data Storage

In contrast with centralized ledgers, distributed ledgers store data at each node in the P2P network.  So there is no need for an intermediating institution.  From a payment system perspective, each node in the P2P network can be thought of as a bank.   Each node will have its own ledger and balance sheet which will record assets and liabilities.

Ripple is a Cross Border money transfer solution which is based on block chain technology.

 

Recent rise of retail P2P payment services such as

  • Xoom
  • M-Paisa
  • PayTM

indicates a trend toward real time payments/money transfers domestic and international.  This trend also indicates decoupling of these services from traditional deposit/lending banks. XOOM is a service provided by PAYPAL for international Money Transfers.  Money transfers are within a few minutes.

In USA, there are new P2P services offered to facilitate faster near real time payments/money transfers through mobile and online interfaces.

  • Venmo (Paypal)
  • Zelle (clearXchange Network)
  • Square Cash
  • Braintree (Paypal)

There are also social media payments available now through which consumers can quickly send money using social media applications such as

  • Facebook (through Messanger app)
  • Snapcash (through SnapChat)
  • Apple PayCash (through imessages app)
  • TenCent via WeChat

 

Rise of payment banks such as PayTM is one such example.  Reserve Bank of India has granted PayTM a payment bank status.  But transfers are still between bank accounts of transacting consumers where deposits are kept. Payment Bank acts as a technology provider and acts as an intermediary.

As per the RBI guidelines, payments banks cannot lend they can only take deposits or accept payments.

There are four payment banks in India now.

  • PayTM Payment Bank
  • Airtel Payment Bank
  • India Post Payment Bank
  • FINO Payment Bank

 

Mobile payments using secured wallets is another such example.

  • Consumer to Business payments and transfers
  • Consumer to Consumer payments and transfers
  • Google Wallet
  • Apple Pay
  • Android Pay
  • Alipay

 

Cross Border Payment Solutions:

  • XOOM
  • Earthport
  • TransferWise
  • RIPPLE
  • Remitly
  • WorldRemit

 

 

Please see my other related posts:

Next Generation of B2C Retail Payment Systems

Cross Border/Offshore Payment and Settlement Systems

 

 

Key sources of Research:

 

Minsky and Godley and financial Keynesianism

Marc Lavoie
University of Ottawa

2010

http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/conf_june10/Lavoie.pdf

 

Block Chain:  A Primer

2016

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/76562/1/MPRA_paper_76562.pdf

 

Distributed Ledger Technologies/Blockchain: Challenges, opportunities and the prospects for standards

Advait Deshpande, Katherine Stewart, Louise Lepetit, Salil Gunashekar

2017

www2.caict.ac.cn/zscp/qqzkgz/qqzkgz_zdzsq/201708/P020170818579005375876.pdf

 

Banking on Distributed Ledger Technology: Can It Help Banks Address Financial Inclusion?

By Jesse Leigh Maniff and W. Blake Marsh

2017

https://www.kansascityfed.org/~/media/files/publicat/econrev/econrevarchive/2017/3q17maniffmarsh.pdf

 

 

Distributed ledger technology in payments, clearing, and settlement

Mills, David, Kathy Wang, Brendan Malone, Anjana Ravi, Jeff Marquardt, Clinton
Chen, Anton Badev, Timothy Brezinski, Linda Fahy, Kimberley Liao, Vanessa Kargenian,
Max Ellithorpe, Wendy Ng, and Maria Baird (2016).

Finance and Economics Discussion
Series 2016-095. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,

2016

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2016/files/2016095pap.pdf

 

 

Distributed Ledger Technology: beyond block chain

A report by the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/492972/gs-16-1-distributed-ledger-technology.pdf

 

Bitcoin, Blockchain & distributed ledgers: Caught between promise and reality

Deloitte

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/Images/infographics/au-deloitte-technology-bitcoin-blockchain-distributed-ledgers-180416.pdf

 

 

Distributed ledger technology in payment, clearing and settlement
An analytical framework

BIS

2017

https://www.bis.org/cpmi/publ/d157.pdf

 

 

The Truth About Blockchain

HBR
January–February 2017 Issue

 

https://hbr.org/2017/01/the-truth-about-blockchain

 

THE USE OF BLOCKCHAIN IN CLEARING AND SETTLEMENT

MARECHAL Baptiste

 

 

Peer-to-peer payments: Surveying a rapidly changing landscape

By Jennifer Windh

August 15, 2011

 

https://www.frbatlanta.org/-/media/documents/rprf/rprf_pubs/110815wp.pdf

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

 

Types of Cross Border Capital Flows

  • Intra Bank Flows (Intra Firm Transfers)
  • Inter Bank Flows (wholesale Money Markets)
  • International Shadow Banking
  • Euro Dollar Market
  • International Bond and Equity Portfolio Flows

Growth of Capital Flows and FX Reserves

From INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Capitalflows

 

From INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Capital Flows 2

From Stitching together the global financial safety net

Cap Flows 6

 

Decline in Global Trade and Cross Border Capital Flows since 2008

 

From Global Liquidity and Cross-Border Bank Flows

Cap Flows 7

 

US DOLLAR FLOWS – Inter regional Flows

  • Not all dollar flows are from USA.
  • Through Eurodollar Market, firms in many countries are engaged in US Dollar transactions.
  • US Dollar dominates cross border capital flows.

 

From External dimension of monetary policy

Cap Flows 4

 

 

From Economic resilience: a financial perspective

 

Cap Flow 15

 

 

ALL CURRENCIES

From Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

Cap Flows 10

 

Who is Involved in Cross Border Capital Flows

From The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Cap Flows 8

 

Recent Trends in Capital Flows

 

From The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Cap Flows 9

 

Problem of Boundaries

From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Capital Flows 3

Cross Border (International) Capital Flows (Networks) for

  • Intra Bank Flows
  • Inter-bank Lending
  • Debt and Securities Flows
  • International Shadow Banking

Capital Flows are not confined to National Boundaries.

Boundaries for

  • Monetary Policy
  • National Income Accounting
  • National Currencies

Types of Flows

From From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 11

 

A. Round tripping of Capital Flows

From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 12

B. International Debt Issuance by Non Financial Corporates in Emerging Markets

 

From From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 13

From Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage

Cap flow 14

 

From  What does the new face of international financial intermediation mean for emerging market economies?

capflows 16

 

 

From Economic resilience: a financial perspective

 

Cap Flow 16

Please see my other related posts:

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

Currency Credit Networks of International Banks

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Economics of Trade Finance

External Balance sheets of Nations

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Hyun Song Shin

Bank for International Settlements
Keynote speech at seventh conference of
Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics

Basel, 5 September 2014

http://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb39_keynote-rh.pdf

 

 

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

Hyun Song Shin, BIS

Eighth IFC Conference on “Statistical implications of the new financial landscape”
Basel, 8–9 September 2016

http://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb43_zp_rh.pdf

 

 

 

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

by Stefan Avdjiev, Robert N McCauley and Hyun Song Shin

Monetary and Economic Department

BIS

October 2015

http://www.bis.org/publ/work524.pdf

 

 

 

Global Liquidity and Cross-Border Bank Flows

Eugenio Cerutti (International Monetary Fund)
Stijn Claessens (Federal Reserve Board)
Lev Ratnovski (International Monetary Fund)

Economic Policy
63rd Panel Meeting
Hosted by the De Nederlandsche Bank

Amsterdam, 22-23 April 2016

http://www.economic-policy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Global-liquidity-and-cross-border-bank-flows.pdf

 

 

 

Stitching together the global financial safety net

Edd Denbee, Carsten Jung and Francesco Paternò

Financial Stability Paper No. 36 – February 2016

BOE

http://www.reinventingbrettonwoods.org/sites/default/files/fs_paper36.pdf

 

 

 

Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns

Stefan Advjiev

Bryan Hardy

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Luis Serven

January 2017

http://www.econweb.umd.edu/~kalemli/GrossFlows_jan17_final.pdf

 

 

External dimension of monetary policy

Hyun Song Shin

Remarks at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conference
“Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the post-crisis period”

Washington DC, Friday 13 November 2015

https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp151113.pdf

 

 

 

 

Financial deglobalisation in banking?

Robert N McCauley, Agustín S Bénétrix,
Patrick M McGuire and Goetz von Peter

TEP Working Paper No. 1717

July 2017

http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2017/tep1717.pdf

 

 

Monetary policy spillovers and currency networks in cross-border bank lending

by Stefan Avdjiev and Előd Takáts
Monetary and Economic Department

March 2016

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2749311

 

 

 

Accounting for global liquidity: reloading the matrix

Hyun Song Shin
Economic Adviser and Head of Research

IMF-IBRN Joint Conference “Transmission of macroprudential and monetary policies across borders”

Washington DC, 19 April 2017

https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp170419.pdf

 

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Maurice Obstfeld
Alan M. Taylor
May 2017

http://econ.sciences-po.fr/sites/default/files/file/w23440.pdf

 

 

 

The Currency Dimension of the Bank Lending Channel in International Monetary Transmission

BIS Working Paper No. 600

Posted: 2 Jan 2017

Előd Takáts

Judit Temesvary

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2891530

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Elod_Takats/publication/311451202_The_Currency_Dimension_of_the_Bank_Lending_Channel_in_International_Monetary_Transmission/links/587dd04808ae9a860ff2723a/The-Currency-Dimension-of-the-Bank-Lending-Channel-in-International-Monetary-Transmission.pdf

 

 

 

The Second Phase of Global Liquidity and Its Impact on Emerging Economies

Hyun Song Shin
Princeton University

November 7, 2013

 

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/events/2013/november/asia-economic-policy-conference/program/files/The-Second-Phase-of-Global-Liquidity-and-Its-Impact-on-Emerging-Economies.pdf

 

 

 

 

BIS Quarterly Review

September 2017

International banking and financial market developments

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1709.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Three Phases of Global Liquidity

https://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9789812872838-c2.pdf?SGWID=0-0-45-1490720-p177066168

 

 

 

 

The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity

Stefan Avdjiev
Leonardo Gambacorta
Linda S. Goldberg
Stefano Schiaffi

Staff Report No. 819
June 2017

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr819.pdf?la=en

 

 

 

How Do Global Liquidity Phases Manifest Themselves in Asia?

Iwan J. Azis
Asian Development Bank and Cornell University
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton University
August 2013

http://www.iwanazis.com/files/documents/Iwan-Azis-Paper-Shin-Global-Liquidity2013.pdf

 

 

 

 

GLOBAL LIQUIDITY—ISSUES FOR SURVEILLANCE

2014

IMF

http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/031114.pdf

 

 

 

 

The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Stefan Avdjiev, Leonardo Gambacorta, Linda S. Goldberg and Stefano Schiaffi

May 2017

FED NY

 

https://www.chapman.edu/business/_files/faculty-research/2017-conference-presentations/linda-goldberg.pdf

 

 

 

CAPITAL FLOWS AND GLOBAL LIQUIDITY

IMF Note for G20 IFA WG
February 2016

 

http://g20chn.org/English/Documents/Current/201608/P020160811536051676178.pdf

 

 

 

 

Capital Flows, Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity∗

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

March 15, 2012

http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/files/capital_flows_global_liquidity.pdf

 

 

Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

August 28, 2014

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work458.pdf

 

 

The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective

by Claudio Borio, Harold James and Hyun Song Shin

2014

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work457.pdf

 

 

Banks and Cross-Border Capital Flows: Policy Challenges and Regulatory Responses

 

https://www.tcd.ie/policy-institute/assets/pdf/CIEPR_banking_capital_flows_report_Sept12.pdf

 

 

 

Global dollar credit and carry trades: a firm-level analysis

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

August 2015

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work510.pdf

 

 

Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage

by Robert N McCauley, Patrick McGuire and Vladyslav Sushko

2015

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.pdf

 

 

 

Global liquidity and procyclicality

Hyun Song Shin

Bank for International Settlements

“The State of Economics, The State of the World” World Bank conference,

8 June 2016

 

http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/710301465395290548/Shin-Son-Shin-Presentation.pdf

 

 

 

 

Economic resilience: a financial perspective

Note submitted to the G20 on 7 November 2016

December 2016

 

http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/2017/2017-Germany-BIS-economic-resilience.pdf

 

 

Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt: How Concerned Should We Be?,

Beltran, Daniel, Keshav Garud, and Aaron Rosenblum (2017).

IFDP Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 2017.

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/ifdp-notes/emerging-market-nonfinancial-corporate-debt-how-concerned-should-we-be-20170601.pdf

 

 

 

 

International capital flows and financial vulnerabilities in emerging market economies: analysis and data gaps

By Nikola Tarashev, Stefan Avdjiev and Ben Cohen

Note submitted to the G20 International Financial Architecture Working Group

August 2016

 

https://www.bis.org/publ/othp25.pdf

 

 

 

Recent trends in EME government debt volume and composition

Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: Threat to Financial Stability

Viral Acharya et al
2015

 

 

 

 

 Dollar credit to emerging market economies

Robert N McCauley Patrick McGuire Vladyslav Sushko

2015

 

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1512e.pdf

 

 

 

 

What does the new face of international financial intermediation mean
for emerging market economies?

Hyun song shin and PhiliP Turner, Bank for International Settlements

2015

 

https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/financial-stability-review-19_2015-04.pdf

Bank of Finland’s Payment And Settlement System Simulator (BoF-PSS2)

Bank of Finland’s Payment And Settlement System Simulator (BoF-PSS2)

 

From Payment and Settlement System Simulator

BOF-PSS2

The Bank of Finland provides a simulator called BoF-PSS2 for replicating payment and securities settlement systems. The simulator is adaptable for modelling multisystem setups that can be a combination of payment, securities settlement systems and CCP’s. The simulator is known to be unique and the first of its kind. Since its launch in 2002 it has been distributed to more than 90 countries and has contributed to numerous studies and research papers.

The simulator can be used to fulfill some of the regulatory requirements stated in the PFMI’s and BCBS requirements such as identifying the liquidity risks inpayment systems. Here under are topics the simulator can be used for:

  • Settlement, liquidity and credit risks in FMI’s
  • Systemic Risks and Counterparty risks in FMI’s
  • Identification of critical counterparts
  • Policy change impact evaluation
  • Network analysis
  • Liquidity dependency analysis
  • Relationship analysis of Monetary policy and liquidity needs for settlement of payments
  • Evaluation of sufficiency of liquidity buffers and margins
  • System merger effects on liquidity needs
  • System performance benchmarking
  • Netting algorithm testing and development
  • System development and prototyping

In comparison to static calculations of indicators, the simulation results naturally incorporate network (or systemic) effects rising from the payments flows and the technical properties of the infrastructures themselves. The results obtained from simulations are directly interpretable and have a self-evident meaning which is not always the case with all indicators. The results can directly be used for risk management purposes for example when evaluating the sufficiency of liquidity buffers and margins. Computer simulations take advantage of using the available information in full without losing micro-level information due to indicator aggregations.

The simulator is freely available for research purposes, and has already been introduced in numerous countries. It is possible to tailor and adapt the simulator to specific payment systems. Several adaptations of the simulator have already been made, eg. for TARGET2. The simulator team provides trainings, consultation and tailored adaptations which are priced for cost recovery. The training course aims at providing necessary skills for efficient use of BoF-PSS2 with hands on computer class exercises. It also presents numerous examples from real studies where the tool has been used. For more details see the training course outline. Minimum attendance to the session is four participants.

Basically, trainings are organised upon demand and it is also possible to order a training course to be held onsite outside the proposed dates.

 

From Payment and Settlement System Simulator / Product Page

product_en_144ppi

From Payment and Settlement System Simulator / Documentation page

The Bank of Finland Payment and Settlement System Simulator, version 2 (BoF-PSS2), is a powerful tool for payment and securities settlement system simulations. The simulator supports multiple system structures and various settlement models.

The simulator is designed for analysing liquidity needs and risks in payment and settlement systems. Special situations, often difficult or impossible to test in a real environment, can be readily simulated with BoF-PSS2. Thus, users can study how behavioral patterns and changes in policy and conventions impact the payment and settlement systems and participants. The efficiency of gridlock-resolution and liquidity-saving measures can be analyzed as well.

The application is divided into three sub-systems:

  • Input sub-system for preparing and defining the input data,
  • Execution sub-system for running simulations,
  • Output sub-system for basic analyses of simulation results.

Different settlement logics are implemented into separate algorithms. To replicate specific systems, appropriate algorithms must be selected with appropriate parameters. Different algorithm combinations can be used to replicate a large number of current and potential settlement conventions and structures. Real-time gross settlement systems (RTGS), continuous net settlement systems (CNS), deferred net settlement systems (DNS) and hybrid systems can be implemented with the simulator as well as securities settlement and multicurrency systems. Inter-system connections and bridges make it possible to define multi- system environments consisting of various types of interdependent systems. E.g. it is possible to replicate the interaction of RTGS and securities settlement systems.

Advanced users of BoF-PSS2 can define and build their own user modules/algorithms and expand the basic features of the simulator to analyse new types of settlement processes. It is also possible to implement agent based modeling by adding algorithms replicating the participants’ behavior and decision making to control and alter the flow of submitted transactions. As a later addition, the simulator also has a network analysis module for generating networks and network indicators from either input data or results of simulations.

BoF-PSS2 has an easy to use graphical user interface. It is also possible to automate the use of the simulator via its command line interface (CLI).

 

From Payment and Settlement System Simulator / Product Page

TARGET2 SIMULATOR

A separate TARGET2 simulator version of BoF-PSS2 has been developed and delivered for the European System of Central Banks. It is based on the same basic software architechture and features of BoF-PSS2. Additional features are implemented as separate algorithm modules which replicate the proprietary algorithms of actual TARGET2 system. It is used by Eurosystem for quantitative analyses and numerical simulations of TARGET2.

TARGET2 simulator has been jointly delivered by Suomen Pankki (Bank of Finland) and the 3CB (Banca d’Italia, Deutsche Bundesbank, Banque de France) based on a decision of ECB Governing Council.

 

 

Key Terms

  • Liquidity Simulator
  • Payment System
  • Risk Management
  • Financial Stability
  • Cascades of Failures
  • Congestions and Delays
  • Financial Market Infrastructures
  • Payment Networks
  • Contagion
  • RTGS
  • Simulation Analysis
  • TARGET2
  • Intraday Payments

 

Key People

  • Harry Leinonen
  • Tatu Laine
  • Matti Hellqvist
  • Kimmo Soramäki

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

Payment and Settlement System Simulator – A tool for analysis of liquidity, risk and efficiency

Bank of Finland Payment and Settlement Simulator

2006

 

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/globalassets/en/financial-stability/payment-and-settelement-system-simulator/events/2006_11a_hl.pdf

 

 

BoF-PSS2 Technical structure and simulation features

Harry Leinonen

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/globalassets/en/financial-stability/payment-and-settelement-system-simulator/events/20031519seminarpresentationleinonen2.pdf

 

 

Payment and Settlement System Simulator

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/financial-stability/bof-pss2-simulator/

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/financial-stability/bof-pss2-simulator/product/

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/financial-stability/bof-pss2-simulator/events/

 

 

Publications

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/en/financial-stability/bof-pss2-simulator/publications/

 

 

Quantitative analysis of financial market infrastructures: further perspectives on financial stability

E50

https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/13990

 

 

Diagnostics for the financial markets : computational studies of payment system : Simulator Seminar Proceedings 2009-2011

E45

https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/9381

 

 

Simulation analyses and stress testing of payment networks

E42

https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/9369

 

 

Simulation studies of liquidity needs, risks and efficiency in payment networks : Proceedings from the Bank of Finland Payment and Settlement System Seminars 2005-2006

E39

https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/9370

 

 

Liquidity, risks and speed in payment and settlement systems : a simulation approach

E31

https://helda.helsinki.fi/bof/handle/123456789/9355

 

 

Simulation Analysis and Tools for the Oversight of Payment Systems

 

http://www.cemla.org/actividades/2012/2012-12-payments/2012-12-vigilanciasistemasdepago-10.pdf

 

 

Utilizing the BoF simulator in quantitative FMI analysis

Tatu Laine

Banco de México

15.10.2014

 

http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/seminarios/banco-de-mexico_-the-evolving-landscape-of-payment/%7B15D9D1D3-D455-1E98-6FA6-AFB3B30C4ACB%7D.pdf

 

 

TARGET2 Simulator

https://www.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/media/2016/11/07/target_newsletter_7_2013.pdf

 

 

Intraday patterns and timing of TARGET2 interbank payments

Marco Massarenti

Silvio Petriconi

Johannes Lindner

 

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/7177/0b5a0eb557b478843891449221c6ed2e7502.pdf

 

 

Communities and driver nodes in the TARGET2 payment system

Marco Galbiatiy, Lucian Stanciu-Vizeteuz

June 17, 2015

 

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Marco_Galbiati/publication/279511583_Communities_and_driver_nodes_in_the_TARGET2_payment_system/links/5593d39c08ae1e9cb42a1904.pdf

 

 

Payment Delays and Contagion

Ben Craig† Dilyara Salakhova‡ Martin Saldias§

November 14, 2014

http://www.systemic-risk-hub.org/papers/bibliography/CraigSalakhovaSaldias_2014_preview.pdf

 

 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review

September 2008 Volume 14 Number 2

Special Issue: The Economics of Payments

 

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2008/EPRvol14n2.pdf

 

 

Contagion in Payment and Settlement Systems

 

Matti Hellqvist

2006

 

https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2006/stress/pdf/mh.pdf

 

 

Applications of BoF-PSS2 simulator and how to use it in agent based models

 

http://terna.to.it/ABM-BaF09/presentations/Hellqvist(presentation)_ABM-BaF09.pdf

 

 

Simulation and Analysis of Cascading Failure in Critical Infrastructure

Robert Glass, Walt Beyeler, Kimmo Soramäki, MortenBech and Jeffrey Arnold

Sandia National Laboratories, European Central Bank,  Federal Reserve Bank of New York

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/globalassets/en/financial-stability/payment-and-settelement-system-simulator/events/07-glass_pres.pdf

 

 

Simulation analysis of payment systems

 

Kimmo Soramäki

2011

http://www.cemla.org/actividades/2011/2011-11-vigilancia/2011-11-vigilancia-07.pdf

 

 

Simulating interbank payment and securities settlement mechanisms with the BoF-PSS2 simulator

Harry Leinonen

Kimmo Soramäki

 

2003

 

https://www.suomenpankki.fi/globalassets/en/rahoitusjarjestelman_vakaus/bof-pss2/documentation/bof_dp_2303.pdf

 

Development of Global Trade and Production Accounts: UN SEIGA Initiative

Development of Global Trade and Production Accounts: UN SEIGA Initiative

 

UNSD is developing a handbook on

System of Extended International and Global Accounts (SEIGA)

Statistics to guide policy making has lagged behind dramatic changes in interconnectedness among nations.

  • Financial Globalization
  • Trade Globalization
  • Climate and Environmental Globalization
  • Economic Integration
  • Digital Globalization – Data and Information Flows
  • People Movements Globalization

Efforts are underway to correct data and statistics measurement and collection.

  • OECD/WTO Trade in Value Added
  • EU/EUROSTAT Multi Country Input-Output Tables
  • UN SEEA
  • UN SEIGA
  • UNECE Global Production
  • EUROSTAT FIGARO
  • EUROSTAT IGA

 

From 2014 International Conference on Measurement of Trade and Economic Globalization

Measurement of International Trade and Economic Globalization

Concept Note

In recent years, concerns were raised about the shortcomings of the existing official trade statistics for the purpose of reflecting bilateral economic relations. The high level of import content in exports makes gross bilateral trade statistics unsuitable for bilateral trade negotiations. Trade analysis requires new measures which better reflect the level of interdependencies among countries engaged in global value chains (GVCs). In order to understand the true nature of trade relationships, we need to know what each country along a global value chain contributes to the value of a final product. We also need to know how that contribution is linked to those of other suppliers in other countries coming before and after along the chain, and how much employment and income is generated through this value addition.

The statistical community responded to these concerns through a number of initiatives, such as the UN/Eurostat/WTO Global Forum on Trade Statistics in 2011, the OECD-WTO initiative on Trade in Value-Added launched in 2012, and the 2013 Eurostat report on Global Value Chains. An official response was delivered by bringing the measurement of international trade and economic globalization to the agenda of the UN Statistical Commission in 20131 and again in 20142. The corresponding decisions of the Commission stress the need for a measurement framework and a mechanism for coordination. Specifically, in Decision 44/1063 of its session in 2013, the Commission recognized the need for an overarching measurement framework for international trade and economic globalization, taking into account the existing frameworks and guidelines of the System of National Accounts, Balance of Payments, and the Guidelines on Integrated Economic Statistics, as well as the research and studies done by Eurostat, the OECD, the IMF and various working groups. The Commission also recognized the need for an appropriate mechanism for coordination of the work in this field, ensuring that the functions of the existing expert groups, working groups and task forces are accounted for at the international and regional levels. In the same decision, the Commission agreed to the creation of a “friends of the chair” (FOC) group tasked with preparing a concept paper on the scope and content of the framework, and on the appropriate mechanism for coordination of the work in this area.

The global economy is increasingly structured around GVCs that account for a rising share of international trade, global GDP and employment. GVCs link firms, workers and consumers around the world and often provide a stepping stone for firms and workers in developing countries to integrate into the global economy. A GVC describes the full range of activities that firms and workers perform to bring a product from its conception to end use. This includes activities such as design, production, marketing, distribution and support to the final consumer. The activities that comprise a value chain can be contained within a single firm or divided among different firms. In the context of globalization, the activities that constitute a value chain have generally been carried out in inter-firm networks on a global scale. The dependency structures of the firms in the GVC networks are of crucial importance in order to measure where income, knowledge and employment are generated, and to understand potential risk and vulnerabilities in case of a future financial crisis. Within this changed economic landscape, more complex measures of trade and production are necessary both on micro-and macro-economic level.

In other words, national economies relate to one another in a number of ways be it through trade in goods, trade in services, tourism, foreign direct investment, establishment of foreign affiliates, transfer of knowledge, creation of jobs, redistribution of income, migrant workers, emissions of CO2 or in other ways. A comprehensive way of charting those interdependencies is through a global Supply and Use table (SUT), in which countries connect through imports and exports of goods and services into and out of specific industries. Ideally, the global SUT contains for each international flow an export of a product from an industry of one country into an industry (or into final consumption) of another country, as the corresponding and matching import. In principle, only one global SUT should exist to be used by all national and international agencies for the analysis of trade and globalization. Besides the implicitly mentioned matching of bilateral trade flows (both for goods and services), further refinement may be necessary regarding the use of inputs by type of enterprise for either the domestic or the international market, including the special cases of multi-national enterprises and their foreign affiliates, goods for processing (manufacturing services) and re-exports. Further details on such global SUT were described in a recent paper of the OECD.

Compiling a global SUT requires a very close alignment and harmonization of national SUTs, price statistics and trade statistics. To achieve this in the short term, some practical decisions need to be taken and agreed upon internationally for the creation of a symmetrical and fully balanced bilateral trade matrix at the global level, which would have buy-in, cooperation and endorsement of all concerned countries. This matrix would be built strictly for the purpose of compiling an internationally recognized and accepted SUT. In the longer term, the existing recommendations for international trade statistics would need to be reviewed with the purpose of making them more symmetrical in terms of the reporting of exports and imports, and thus more suitable for the compilation of a global SUT.

A System of International Accounts.

The implications of building a global SUT [for the purpose of deriving, for instance, indicators for Trade in Value Added or Trade in Jobs] are farther reaching than just addressing asymmetries in trade and heterogeneity in firms. The underlying concepts and definitions as basis for measurement of these international statistics would need to be reviewed as well. In terms of the System of National Accounts, the Rest of the World Account would need to be more explicitly defined, especially since a global SUT implies a perfect alignment of international flows, and some international recommendations regarding heterogeneity of firms (where economically relevant). In the longer term, this set of new concepts and definitions could form a System of International Accounts, as the measurement framework for international trade and economic globalization.

 

From The relevance of multi-country input-output tables in measuring emissions trade balance of countries: the case of Spain

Background and statistical context

The latest meeting of the Group of Experts on National Accounts of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE, 7-9 July 2015), was devoted to data collection and compilation methods in respect to global production activities. It was jointly organized with Eurostat and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). The meeting was attended by representatives from more than thirty countries worldwide and representatives from the European Commission (EC), International Monetary Fund (IMF), OECD, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and World Trade Organization (WTO), among others.

According to the experts at this UNECE meeting, in order to measure global production and global value chains it is no longer sufficient to look only at what a firm does, but to also to consider how the firm does its activities and with whom. For instance, linking business statistics and trade statistics on a micro level should provide new dimensions to the data as long as new balancing challenges at the macro level data (e.g. national accounts). Indeed, statisticians have not always been able to keep up to date with business practices and must find ways to be forward looking and provide the information that meets future policy needs. Traditional measures of trade in goods and services have to be progressively supplemented with information on income and financial flows. Foreign direct investment statistics (FDI) should be further developed and complemented with foreign affiliate statistics (FATS) in order to improve their clarity, usefulness and coverage, and to provide better insights into global value chains.

In this respect, the UNECE Report emanating from this meeting supported new global initiatives, such as the extensions to Trade in Value Added and Global Input- Output Tables (OECD), the construction of the European Multi-Country Input-Output Framework (EC and Eurostat) as well as the elaboration of a new Handbook on a System of Extended International and Global Accounts (UNSD).

Hence, there is no doubt that globalization is currently affecting the way statisticians are measuring national production of countries and international statistical organizations are indeed very busy working on it in order to meet the policy needs at the worldwide level. As national accounts and input-output tables became an integral part of the production activities of national statistical institutes in the past, very soon multi-country and international input-output tables will become a crucial statistical tool to measure global production, trade in value added, environmental footprints and/or employment effects of export activities with official statistics (e.g. carbon footprint estimated by Eurostat).

Bearing all this in mind, we would like to illustrate in this paper the usefulness of global/world input-output tables in measuring the greenhouse gas footprints of individual countries and its external emission trade balance with respect to others. Hopefully, these types of indicators will soon become regularly produced in the future by statisticians using official global input-output tables instead of using other databases produced as one-off projects (e.g. World Input-Output Database, WIOD – http://www.wiod.org).

 

From 2016 Meeting of the UN Expert Group on International Trade and Globalization Statistics

Concept Note

Following Decision 46/107 taken by the Statistical Commission at its 46th session in 2015, a handbook on a system of extended international and global accounts will be prepared, which will serve as the measurement framework for international trade and economic globalization. This handbook will build on existing work in this area, in particular by the UNECE, the OECD and Eurostat, and address issues of micro-data linking of business and trade statistics, as well as address the integration of economic, environmental and social dimensions of trade and globalization as an extension of the System of National Accounts 2008 (2008 SNA) and the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting 2012 (SEEA 2012).

The first meeting of the expert group is scheduled to take place on 26-28 January 2016 at the UN headquarters in New York. The Handbook is of course the main topic of discussion at this meeting.

The Handbook will refer to and build upon the work of the Friend of the Chair group, which concluded that improved statistics are necessary and should bring a better understanding of the role of the external sector in an economy, the openness of its domestic and foreign markets and the impact of openness on social, economic and environmental upgrading, including the level and quality of employment. More and better data is needed in developed, emerging and developing economies alike: interconnected economies require interconnected statistics and all economies can benefit from a better understanding of these relationships.

As stated in the 2015 FOC report, policymakers and trade negotiators need to understand the cross-country benefits and risks by being able to “look through” the global value chains and see the specific contributions other countries are making to production networks involving their domestic firms. The GVC approach was suggested by the international statistical community as the preferred way of measuring the interconnectedness of economies with respect to jobs, skills, international competitiveness and the creation of value added, income and jobs. The activities involved in GVCs can be grouped into broad stages of production from upstream research and design, through manufacturing, to downstream logistics, marketing and sales. In a GVC, many of the tasks are “offshored”, either through an enterprise’s own affiliates located in foreign countries or through independent contractors. It is this newly emerged international economic integration of production and trade and their governance that has to be better measured and analyzed, including in respect of the benefits, costs and risks associated with engaging in GVCs.

The Handbook can build upon the recommendations and guidelines provided in UNECE’s Guide to Measuring Global Production. This Guide was released at the end of 2015 and provides valuable insights in the functioning and measurement of global value chains. The Guide provides a typology of global production arrangements and describes the principles of ownership inside a multi-national enterprise, as well as ownership of intellectual property products inside global production. In addition, data source and compilation challenges are addressed with special attention to large and complex enterprises.

The Handbook can also build on work presented at the International Conference on Measurement of Trade and Economic Globalization in Mexico in 2014. For example, it could use the value chain reference model to establish alternative aggregations of basic ISIC categories. Those aggregations can be based on enterprise activities in the offshoring of business functions, the use of intermediate inputs, the kinds of basic classes of goods produced and the variety of end markets. The reason for making those distinctions is that it is not possible, in the current ISIC, to distinguish the significant differences between enterprises that operate domestically and those that operate globally. Harmonization of enterprises into groups of similar make-up could significantly improve the accounting structure of the supply and use tables for the analysis of global value chains; harmonization could be achieved in terms of industry, supply chain position, end markets and the extent of the use of business functions being outsourced.

The OECD expert group on extended Supply-Use Tables addresses the estimation methods of trade in value added. The terms of reference of the group states among others that globalization is rapidly changing long-standing assumptions about the relative homogeneity of the production functions (Input-Output technical coefficients) of units classified to a given industrial activity, which is, implicitly, an underlying assumption used in creating input-output based indicators. The increasing prevalence of new types of firms such as factoryless producers and contract processing firms, and the increasing tendency for horizontal, as opposed to vertical, specialization, particularly for multinational affiliates, has fundamentally challenged these assumptions. Therefore, the OECD expert group is looking for the best ways to breakdown firms by specific characteristics (such as involvement in GVCs) which will make the sub-groups more homogeneous.

A GVC approach seems appropriate for the Handbook on a system of extended international and global accounts, since GVCs cut across geographic borders and bring together those global economic activities, goods and services, which belong together. Measurement of economic interdependencies (involving investment, job creation, income and intellectual property) within and across countries — between upstream design and downstream assembly — requires measurement of GVCs. Similarly, if we want to understand the interdependencies within and across countries for global retailers, financial and nonfinancial service providers, as well as horizontally-integrated enterprises, the GVC is the appropriate organizing framework.

This focus on GVCs has important implications for the unit of measurement and related data collection and estimation procedures. Most of the key decisions made by global manufacturers and global service providers are made at the enterprise rather than the establishment, or plant, level. This implies that for multi-national enterprises data on profits, research and development, transfer pricing, final product pricing, design, financing, advertising, and the rest of the links in GVCs are only available at the global enterprise level.

 

How to Integrate National SUIOTS into Global MCIO tables

globalaccounts

 

Key Terms:

  • SUTs (Supply and Use Tables)
  • GVCs (Global Value Chains)
  • UN SEIGA (System of Extended International and Global Accounts)
  • UN SEEA (System of Environment Economic Accounts)
  • Bilateral Trade Matrix
  • TIVA ( Trade in Value Added)
  • MCIO (Multi Country Input Output Tables)
  • SUIOT ( Supply and Use Input Output Tables)
  • UN SNA (System of National Accounts)
  • UNSD ( United Nations Statistical Division)
  • UNECE ( United Nations Economic Commission for Europe)
  • EUROSTAT ( European Statistics Division)
  • IMF
  • UNCTAD (UN Conference on Trade and Development)
  • WTO ( World Trade Organization)
  • OECD
  • UN ITEGS (International Trade and Economic Globalization Statistics)
  • WIOD ( World Input Output Database)
  • FIGARO (Full International and Global Accounts for Research in

    Input-Output Analysis)

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

Global Forum on Trade Statistics
Measuring Global Trade — Do We Have the Right Numbers?

Geneva 2011

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/forum_feb11_e/forum_feb11_e.htm

 

 

Eurostat Seminar: Global value chains and economic globalization:

The Eurostat initiative

Dublin Ireland

Date: 18th April 2013

http://www.cso.ie/en/newsandevents/eventsconferencesseminars/eurostatseminarglobalvaluechainsandeconomicglobalizationtheeurostatinitiative/

 

 

International Conference on Measurement of Trade and Economic Globalization

Organized by UNSD and INEGI in cooperation with OECD, WTO and EUROSTAT

Mexico

2014

International Conference on Measurement of Trade and Economic Globalization

 

 

UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) Conference

July 2015 

Geneva

Group of Experts on National Accounts: Measuring Global Production

 

 

UN Conference on developing System of Extended International and Global Accounts

January 2016

New York

System of Extended International and Global Accounts

 

 

 

UN Expert Group on International Trade and Economic Globalization Statistics

Conference November 2016

New York

UN Expert Group on International Trade and Economic Globalization Statistics

 

 

Global Forum on International Trade Statisticsand Economic Globalization

Global Forum on International Trade Statistics and Economic Globalization

 

 

Proposed Outline for a System of Extended International and Global Accounts

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/core/Outline%20for%20a%20System%20of%20Extended%20International%20and%20Global%20Accounts%20-%20Oct%202015.pdf

 

 

Meeting of the UN Expert Group on International Trade and Globalization Statistics

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/Concept%20Note.pdf

 

 

The relevance of multi-country input-output tables in measuring emissions trade balance of countries: the case of Spain

Teresa Sanz1,∗, Roc ́ıo Yn ̃iguez1 and Jose ́ Manuel Rueda-Cantuche

2016

 

http://www.idescat.cat/sort/sort401/40.1.1.sanz-etal.pdf

 

 

Handbook for a System of Extended International and Global Accounts (SEIGA)

Overview of Major Issues

November 23, 2015 (Revised)

By J. Steven Landefel

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/core/Overview%20of%20Major%20of%20Issues%20for%20SEIGA%20-%20Nov%202015.pdf

 

 

Report of the first meeting of the Expert Group on international trade and economic globalization statistics

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/47th-session/documents/BG-2016-23-international-trade-and-economic-globalization-statisitcs-E.pdf

 

 

Background and context

First meeting of the UN Expert Group on international trade and economic globalization statistics,

26-28 January 2016, New York

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/presentations/UNSD%20-%20Background%20and%20context.pdf

 

 

Developing A System of Extended International and Global Accounts

Steve Landefeld

 

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2015/July/Item_5_SEIGA_Presentation_SEIGA_new.pdf

 

 

Measurement framework for international trade and economic globalization

Group of Experts on National Accounts

18-20 May 2016

Geneva, Switzerland

Herman Smith

 

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2016/Item_4d_UNSD_framework_for_international_trade_and_economic_globalization.pdf

 

 

Conference of European Statisticians

Group of Experts on National Accounts Fourteenth session
Geneva, 7-9 July 2015

 

Distr.: General 14 April 2015
Annotated provisional agenda for the fourteenth session

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2015/July/Agenda_ENG.pdf

 

 

Measuring International Trade and Economic Globalization

Muscat, Oman, Feb 2016

 

http://gccstat.org/images/gccstat/workshops/IMTSWorkshop-GCCSTAT-UNSD-2016-0-/day1/Pre-Session-UNSD-IT-EconomicGlobalisation.pdf

 

 

Overview of the Implementation of National Accounts at Global Level

United Nations Statistics Division

 

http://www.cepal.org/sites/default/files/events/files/2015-semcn-s2-unsd-ilaria-di-matteo.pdf

 

 

Guide to Measuring Global Production

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/UNECE%20-%202015%20-%20Draft%20Guide%20to%20Measuring%20Global%20Production%20-%20Sep%202015.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL MULTIREGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT FRAMEWORKS: AN INTRODUCTION AND

OUTLOOK

Arnold Tukker a b & Erik Dietzenbacher

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/Tukker%20and%20Dietzenbacher%20-%202013%20-%20Overview%20on%20International%20IO%20Tables.pdf

 

 

TRADE IN VALUE-ADDED: CONCEPTS, METHODOLOGIES AND CHALLENGES (JOINT OECD-WTO NOTE)

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/OECD-WTO%20-%202012%20-%20Joint%20note%20on%20TiVA.pdf

 

 

OECD EXPERT GROUP ON EXTENDED SUPPLY-USE TABLES

TERMS OF REFERENCE

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/OECD%20-%202015%20-%20eSUTs_TOR.pdf

 

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN ANALYSIS: A PRIMER

Gary Gereffi
&
Karina Fernandez-Stark

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/Duke%20-%202011%20-%20GVC_analysis_a_primer.pdf

 

 

CONNECTING LOCAL PRODUCERS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TO REGIONAL AND GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS – UPDATE

Penny Bamber, Karina Fernandez-Stark, Gary Gereffi and Andrew Guinn

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/Duke%20-%202013%20-%20Developing%20countries%20and%20GVCs.pdf

 

 

Global Value Chain Analysis on Samsung Electronics

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/Canada%20-%202012%20-%20GVC%20Analysis%20of%20Samsung%20Electronics.pdf

 

 

Global Value Chains in official business statistics

Martin Luppes, Statistics Netherlands

Peter Bøegh Nielsen, Statistics Danmark

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/Luppes%20and%20Nielsen%20-%202015%20-%20Global%20Value%20Chains%20in%20official%20business%20statistics.pdf

 

International Corporate Governance Spillovers: Evidence from Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions

Rui Albuquerque, Luis Brandao-Marques, Miguel A. Ferreira, Pedro Matos

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/IMF%20-%202013%20-%20International%20Corporate%20Governance%20Spillovers.pdf

 

 

Trade Linkages, Balance Sheets, and Spillovers: The Germany-Central European Supply Chain

Selim Elekdag and Dirk Muir

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/IMF%20-%202013%20-%20Trade%20Linkages,%20Balance%20Sheets,%20and%20Spillovers.pdf

 

 

THE PRODUCTIVITY ADVANTAGE AND GLOBAL SCOPE OF U.S. MULTINATIONAL FIRMS

Raymond Mataloni, Jr.

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/newyork-egm/documents/background/US%20Census%20-%202011%20-%20US%20Multinationals.pdf

 

 

Effects of the Crisis on the Automotive Industry in Developing Countries

A Global Value Chain Perspective

Timothy J. Sturgeon Johannes Van Biesebroeck

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/s_geneva2011/refdocs/RDs/Automotive%20Industry%20and%20Crisis%20(Sturgeon%20-%20Jun%202010).pdf

 

 

Value chains, networks and clusters: reframing the global automotive industry

 

Timothy Sturgeon  Johannes Van Biesebroeck and Gary Gereffi

https://unstats.un.org/UNSD/trade/s_geneva2011/refdocs/RDs/Automotive%20Industry%20(Sturgeon%20-%20Apr%202008).pdf

 

 

The PhiliPPines in the aUtoMotiVe global ValUe chain

2016

http://www.cggc.duke.edu/pdfs/2016_Philippines_Automotive_Global_Value_Chain.pdf

 

 

Upgrading and restructuring in the global apparel value chain: why China and Asia are outperforming Mexico and Central America

Stacey Frederick

Gary Gereffi

2011

http://dukespace.lib.duke.edu/dspace/bitstream/handle/10161/10701/2011-08-03_Frederick%20&%20GEREFFI_apparel%20article%20-%20China%20&%20Mexico.pdf;sequence=1

 

 

Combining the Global Value Chain and global I-O approaches

Discussion paper

Dr. Stacey Frederick

2014

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2014/mexico/2014-09-29_Frederick,%20Stacey_Combining%20GVC%20and%20global%20I-O%20approaches.pdf

 

 

Sewing Success?

Employment, Wages, and Poverty following the End of the Multi-fibre Arrangement

Editors
Gladys Lopez-Acevedo Raymond Robertson

2012

 

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTPOVERTY/Resources/SewingSuccess_FullReport.pdf

 

 

A measurement framework and a narrative on global value chains and economic globalization

Merja Hult and Pekka Alajääskö

Timothy J. Sturgeon

http://www.statistics.gov.hk/wsc/STS024-P1-S.pdf

 

 

TRADE INTERCONNECTEDNESS: THE WORLD WITH GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

IMF

2013

 

https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/082613.pdf

 

 

Global Value Chains

https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/global-value-chains.htm

 

 

Global value chains

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Global_value_chains

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND Development

INVESTMENT AND VALUE ADDED TRADE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

 

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/diae2013d1_en.pdf

 

 

 

Competing in Global Value Chains

EU Industrial Structure Report 2013

 

http://sev4enterprise.org.gr/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/EKTHESEIS-6.pdf

 

 

Global Value Chains: Development Challenges and Policy Options

Proposals and Analysis

December 2013

http://e15initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/E15-Global-Value-Chains-Compliation-Report-FINAL.pdf

 

 

Global Value Chains: The New Reality of International Trade

Sherry Stephenson

December 2013

http://e15initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/E15-GVCs-Stephenson-Final.pdf

 

 

World Investment Report 2013: Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development

2013

 

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/wir2013_en.pdf

 

 

Global Production Networks: Theorizing Economic Development in aninterconnected world

By Neil M. Coe, Henry Wai-Chung Yeung

 

 

TRADE IN VALUE ADDED (TIVA) INDICATORS GUIDE TO COUNTRY NOTES

https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/TiVA_2015_Guide_to_Country_Notes.pdf

 

 

 

TRADE IN VALUE-ADDED: CONCEPTS, METHODOLOGIES AND CHALLENGES

(JOINT OECD-WTO NOTE)

 

http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/49894138.pdf

 

 

Global value chains in a changing world

Edited by Deborah K. Elms and Patrick Low

WTO 2013

 

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/aid4tradeglobalvalue13_e.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN A POSTCRISIS WORLD

Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz

2010

 

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/2509/569230PUB0glob1C0disclosed010151101.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

 

 

Making Global Value Chains Work for Development

Daria Taglioni

Deborah Winkler