Low Interest Rates and Business Investments – Update October 2020

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments – Update October 2020

There has been several new research on the topic of Low Interest Rates and Business Investments since my last post.

Decision Making by Firms in Low Interest rates environment

  • Invest and Grow
  • Merge / Consolidate
  • Pay Dividends
  • Buyback Shares
  • Divestures
  • Acquisitions
  • Horizontal Mergers (Market Share)
  • Vertical Mergers (Costs)
  • Innovation M&A (New Tech, New Product)

Key Terms

  • Business Investments
  • Monetary Polcy
  • Zero Lower Bound
  • Interest Rates
  • Fed Funds Rate
  • Corporate Finance
  • Hurdle Rates
  • Capital Budgeting
  • Internal Rate of Return IRR
  • CAGR Compond Annual Growth Rate
  • Cost of Capital
  • Discounted Cash Flow
  • Net Present Value
  • Mergers vs Investments
  • Organic Growth
  • Inorganic Growth
  • State of the Industry
  • State of the Economy
  • Liquidity Financial
  • Bank Lending
  • Capital Markets
  • Economic Growth
  • Corporate Planning
  • Strategic Planning
  • Strategic Management

My Related Posts

Increasing Market Concentration in USA: Update April 2019

Rising Market Concentration and Declining Business Investments in the USA – Update June 2018

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments : Update August 2017

Business Investments and Low Interest Rates

Cash and Investments: Corporate Savings Glut in USA

Low Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Low Interest Rates and Risk taking channel of Monetary Policy

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Low Interest Rates and Bank’s Profitability – Update May 2019

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability : Update July 2017

Low Interest Rates and Banks Profitability: Update – December 2016

Impact of Low Interest Rates on Bank’s Profitability

The Decline in Long Term Real Interest Rates

Cash and Investments: Corporate Savings Glut in USA

Why do Firms buyback their Shares? Causes and Consequences.

Short term Thinking in Investment Decisions of Businesses and Financial Markets

Key Sources of Reserach

Lengthy era of rock-bottom interest rates leaving its mark on U.S. economy

Weak demand in U.S. and other rich nations explains historic shift

Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/03/low-interest-rates/

Do Interest Rates Affect Business Investment? Evidence from Australian Company-level Data

Jonathan Hambur and Gianni La Cava

Low Interest Rates Have Benefits … and Costs

Kevin L. Kliesen

October 1, 2010

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2010/low-interest-rates-have-benefits–and-costs

Low for Long?
Causes and Consequences of Persistently Low Interest Rates

Geneva Reports on the World Economy 17 Charles Bean

London School of Economics and CEPR

Christian Broda

Duquesne Capital Management

Takatoshi Ito

SIPA Columbia University and CEPR

Randall Kroszner

Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

2015

Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth∗

Ernest Liu

Princeton University

Atif Mian
Princeton University and NBER

Amir Sufi
University of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER

August 18, 2020

The Economic Effects of Low Interest Rates and Unconventional Monetary Policy

17 September 2020

Rochelle Guttmann, Dana Lawson and Peter Rickards

RBA

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/sep/the-economic-effects-of-low-interest-rates-and-unconventional-monetary-policy.html

Firms’ Investment Decisions and Interest Rates

Kevin Lane and Tom Rosewall

RBA

Has Business Fixed Investment Really Been Unusually Low?

By François Gourio

Chicago Fed Letter, No. 418, 2019

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/418

Fiscal Policy with High Debt and Low Interest Rates

William Gale

July 1, 2019

The impact of negative interest rates on banks and firms 

Carlo Altavilla, Lorenzo Burlon, Mariassunta Giannetti, Sarah Holton  

08 November 2019

https://voxeu.org/article/impact-negative-interest-rates-banks-and-firms

Global Trends in Interest Rates

Marco Del Negro Domenico Giannone Marc P. Giannoni Andrea Tambalotti

Staff Report No. 866 September 2018

Financial stability implications of a prolonged period of low interest rates

Report submitted by a Working Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was co-chaired by Ulrich Bindseil (European Central Bank) and Steven B Kamin (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

July 2018

BIS

Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311-2018.

Paul Schmelzing

https://economics.rutgers.edu/downloads-hidden-menu/news-and-events/workshops/money-history-and-finance/1823-paulschmelzing/file

Low Interest Rates and Risk Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions

Review of Financial Studies

49 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2016 Last revised: 29 Aug 2018

Chen Lian

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Yueran Ma

University of Chicago – Booth School of Business

Carmen Wang

Harvard University – Department of Economics; HBS Negotiations, Organizations and Markets Unit

Date Written: August 22, 2018

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2809191

MONETARY POLICY, CORPORATE FINANCE AND INVESTMENT

James Cloyne Clodomiro Ferreira Maren Froemel Paolo Surico

Determinants of the real interest rate

Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the National Treasury Management Agency

Dublin, 28 November 2019

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2019/html/ecb.sp191128_1~de8e7283e6.en.html

Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles∗

Nicolas Crouzet and Janice Eberly

Prepared for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

August 23 – 25, 2018 This version: May 14, 2019

Monetary policy in advanced economies

Low policy rates are here to stay

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/monetary-policy-low-interest-rates-advanced-economies.html

Have low interest rates led to excessive risk taking?

https://www.aeaweb.org/forum/311/have-low-interest-rates-led-to-excessive-risk-taking

The Policy Perils of Low Interest Rates

The consequences of prolonged low interest rates in Europe

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/the-consequences-of-prolonged-low-interest-rates-in-europe,economy,2465.html

Increasing Market Concentration in USA: Update April 2019

Increasing Market Concentration in USA: Update April 2019

In this post, I have compiled recent articles and papers on the issues of:

  • Increased Market Power
  • Increased Market Concentration
  • Increased Corporate Profits
  • Increased Inequality
  • Anti Trust Laws and Competition policy
  • Interest rates and Business Investments
  • Interest rates and Mergers and Acquisitions
  • Stock Buybacks, Dividends, and Business Investments
  • Outsourcing, and Global Value Chains
  • Corporate Savings Glut
  • Slower Economic Growth
  • Reduced Dynamism

 

From Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth

How does the production side of the economy respond to a low interest rate environment? This study provides a new theoretical result that low interest rates encourage market concentration by giving industry leaders a strategic advantage over followers, and this effect strengthens as the interest rate approaches zero. The model provides a unified explanation for why the fall in long-term interest rates has been associated with rising market concentration, reduced dynamism, a widening productivity-gap between industry leaders and followers, and slower productivity growth. Support for the model’s key mechanism is established by showing that a decline in the ten year Treasury yield generates positive excess returns for industry leaders, and the magnitude of the excess returns rises as the Treasury yield approaches zero.

Please see my related posts:

 

Competition, Concentration, and Anti-Trust Laws in the USA

Concentration, Investment, and Growth

Shareholder Capitalism: Rising Market Concentration, Slower Productivity Growth, Rising Inequality, Rising Profits, and Rising Equities Markets

Rising Market Concentration and Declining Business Investments in the USA – Update June 2018

Rising Profits, Rising Inequality, and Rising Industry Concentration in the USA

Why are Macro-economic Growth Forecasts so wrong?

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments : Update August 2017

Mergers and Acquisitions – Long Term Trends and Waves

Business Investments and Low Interest Rates

Economic Growth Theories – Orthodox and Heterodox

The Decline in Long Term Real Interest Rates

Why do Firms buyback their Shares? Causes and Consequences.

On Inequality of Wealth and Income – Causes and Consequences

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

Cash and Investments: Corporate Savings Glut in USA

Key sources:

Markups, Consumption and Market Concentration

American Economic Association

https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2019/preliminary/814?q=eNqrVipOLS7OzM8LqSxIVbKqhnGVrJQMlWp1lBKLi_OTgRwlHaWS1KJcXAgrJbESKpSZmwphlWWmloO0FxUUgLQagFwwSH9BYjpIBZANXDDjnB7P

AMERICA’S CONCENTRATION CRISIS

AN OPEN MARKETS INSTITUTE REPORT

https://concentrationcrisis.openmarketsinstitute.org

How Low Interest Rates Have Led To Increased Market Concentration

Seeking Alpha

March, 2019

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4245601-low-interest-rates-led-increased-market-concentration

 

Market Concentration Is Threatening the US Economy

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/united-states-economy-rising-market-power-by-joseph-e-stiglitz-2019-03

Concentration increasing?

John Cochrane

2019

https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2019/03/concentration-increasing.html

Industry Concentration in Europe and North America

OECD

2019

Monopolies are the ‘missing piece of the puzzle’ when it comes to analyzing US inequality, investment researchers argue

Barclays Launches New Research Study Analyzing how Market Concentration is Affecting the US Economy

March 26, 2019

DISRUPTION CONCENTRATION AND THE NEW ECONOMY

The Surprising Thing About Market Concentration

by esteban rossi-hansberg, pierre-daniel sarte and nicholas trachter

 

Increased market power: a global problem that needs solving?

January 2019

https://www.oxera.com/agenda/increased-market-power-a-global-problem-that-needs-solving/

Click to access Increased-market-power.pdf

 

 

 

70 Years of US Corporate Profits∗

Simcha Barkai

Seth G. Benzell

April 2018

 

Click to access 2270yearsofuscorporateprofits.pdf

 

 

Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth

Ernest Liu, Atif Mian, Amir Sufi

January 2019

NBER

https://www.nber.org/papers/w25505

Click to access BFI-MFRI-2019-09.pdf

Chapter 2: The Rise of Corporate Market Power and Its Macroeconomic Effects

World Economic Outlook

April 2019

IMF

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2019/03/28/world-economic-outlook-april-2019

Outsourcing, Occupational and Industrial Concentration

Nicholas Bloom (Stanford), Audrey Guo (Stanford) and Brian Lucking (Stanford)
November 2018

 

 

 

Diverging Trends in National and Local Concentration∗

Esteban Rossi-Hansberg Pierre-Daniel Sarte

Nicholas Trachter

February 26, 2019

 

Click to access DTNLC.pdf

 

 

 

Macroeconomics and Market Power: Facts, Potential Explanations, and Open Questions

Chad Syverson

January 2019

Brookings

 

Click to access ES_20190116_Syverson-Macro-Micro-Market-Power.pdf

A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

Author(s): Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, and Huiyu Li

March 2019

Fed Reserve San Francisco

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/working-papers/2019/11/

Competition and market concentration in the United States

 

December 2018

https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/bd779c20-ede1-4266-94ee-13eb70d0b882/files/c19bc114-e2ee-4f2e-99a4-6ca645b6f0d5

Concentration, Market Power and Dynamism in the Euro Area

ECB Working Paper No. 2253 (2019); ISBN 978-92-899-3515-9

 

Posted: 26 Mar 2019

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3360233&download=yes

The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications

Jan De Loecker
Jan Eeckhout
Gabriel Unger
November 22, 2018

 

Click to access RMP.pdf

 

Quantitative Models for Closed Loop Supply Chain and Reverse Logistics

 

Quantitative Models for Closed Loop Supply Chain and Reverse Logistics

 

 

Closing the Supply Chain Loop

  • Repair/Refurbish
  • Reuse
  • Remanufacture
  • Recycle

 

Industrial Sectors

  • Automotive
  • Beverages
  • Paper and Paperboard
  • Packaging
  • Food
  • Plastics
  • Metals
  • Electronics
  • Others

 

Key Terms:

  • Reverse Logistics
  • Closed Loop Supply Chain
  • Sustainability
  • Recycling
  • Green SCM
  • European Network on Reverse Logistics (REVLOG)

 

 

reverse4

 

 

 

From A Review on Strategic, Tactical and Operational Decision Planning in Reverse Logistics of Green Supply Chain Network Design

REVERSE

 

 

Reverse2Reverse3

 

 

reverse5

 

 

reverse7

 

 

Please see my related posts:

Towards the Circular Economy

Resource Flows: Material Flow Accounting (MFA), Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), Input Output Networks and other methods

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

 

 

 

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

‘Agility and reverse logistics: a conceptual framework’

 

Soosay, Claudine

2013

11th ANZAM Operations, Supply Chain and Services Management Symposium, pp. 1-14

 

http://search.ror.unisa.edu.au/record/UNISA_ALMA11143749860001831/media/digital/open/9915910203301831/12143749850001831/13143746160001831/pdf

 

 

 

 

An Overview of Research Characteristics on Reverse Logistics

Mohamad Tabikh

MÄLARDALEN UNIVERSITY, IDT, SWEDEN

Click to access 11TabMR27.32040645.pdf

 

 

 

 

A Review on Strategic, Tactical and Operational Decision Planning in Reverse Logistics of Green Supply Chain Network Design

Farahanim Misni1,2, Lai Soon Lee1,3*

 

Click to access JCC_2017063016203535.pdf

 

 

 

 

Reverse Logistics Network Design: A Framework for Decision Making

Theresa J. Barker and Zelda B. Zabinsky

Click to access f94945e69e2bcfd663691059f8cde408e652.pdf

 

 

 

The Reverse Logistics Process in the Supply Chain and Managing Its Implementation

Joseph Raymond Huscroft, Jr.

https://etd.auburn.edu/bitstream/handle/10415/2438/Huscroft_FINAL_Ver_3_Dissertation_TC_good.pdf;sequence=2

 

 

 

Adopting Circular Economy principles in supply chain management of organizations: reverse logistics.

 

https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/2414339/Aurdahl.pdf?sequence=1

 

 

SUSTAINABLE LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES FOR SUSTAINABLE OPERATIONS AND MANAGEMENT

 

Click to access slscm-sample.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Introduction to Management of Reverse Logistics and Closed Loop Supply Chain Processes

Donald F.Blumberg

 

Click to access eb0d0daf4db0b15b3162c08f1be295e11e60.pdf

 

 

 

WHY REVERSE LOGISTICS IS AN ESSENTIAL PART OF A CIRCULAR ECONOMY

 

https://circulatenews.org/2016/06/why-corporations-will-have-to-invest-in-their-reverse-logistics/

 

 

 

 

Optimizing the Supply Chain in Reverse Logistics

Pitipong Veerakamolmal

Surendra M. Gupta

Click to access 4193-26-SPIE.PDF

 

 

 

 

 

Reverse logistics and closed-loop supply chain A comprehensive review to explore the future

 

Govindan, M.E., PhD., , Kannan; Soleimani, Hamed; Kannan, Devika
European Journal of Operational Research

2015

Click to access reverse_logistics.pdf

 

 

 

 

Reverse Logistics

How to realise an agile and efficient reverse chain within the Consumer Electronics industry

PWC

 

Click to access pwc-reverse-logistics.pdf

 

 

 

Closed Loop Supply Chain Management and Reverse Logistics -A Literature Review

N. Raj Kumar and R.M. Satheesh Kumar

2013

Click to access ijertv6n4spl_07.pdf

 

 

 

The Returns Management Process in Supply Chain Strategy

 

Click to access matdid002596.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

The Reverse Logistics Process in the Supply Chain and Managing Its Implementation

Joseph Raymond Huscroft, Jr.

https://etd.auburn.edu/bitstream/handle/10415/2438/Huscroft_FINAL_Ver_3_Dissertation_TC_good.pdf;sequence=2

 

 

Quantitative Models for Reverse Logistics

Moritz Fleischmann

2000

https://www.erim.eur.nl/doctoral-programme/phd-in-management/phd-tracks/detail/426-quantitative-models-for-reverse-logistics/

 

 

 

Resolving forward-reverse logistics multi-period model using evolutionary algorithms.

Kumar, V.N.S.A., Kumar, V., Brady, M. et al. (2 more authors)

(2016)

 

Click to access Manuscript_SI_Revised_IJPE-D-15-01250R1.pdf

 

 

 

Reverse Logistics Planning: A Strategic Way to Address Environmental Sustainability While Creating a Competitive Advantage

Melissa R. Icenhour

 

http://trace.tennessee.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2701&context=utk_chanhonoproj

 

 

 

 

 

DECISION SUPPORT IN REVERSE LOGISTICS AND CLOSED-LOOP SUPPLY CHAINS

An overview of exclusive challenges in reverse logistics operations and areas where decision support tools are needed.

Click to access Reverse%20Logistics-VNL%20Magazine.pdf

 

 

 

Operations Research for Green Logistics – An Overview of Aspects, Issues, Contributions and Challenges

Rommert Dekkera , Jacqueline Bloemhof b and Ioannis Mallidisc

Click to access 18511839.pdf

 

 

 

 

A bibliometric analysis of reverse logistics research (1992-2015) and opportunities for future research

2016

 

https://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1024&context=scm_pubs

Reverse Logistics

Quantitative Models for Closed-Loop Supply Chains

Editors: Dekker, R., Fleischmann, M., Inderfurth, K., van Wassenhove, L.N. (Eds.)

2004

Inventory Management in Reverse Logistics in FAW Co., Ltd

 

 

 

 

Characteristics of the Research on Reverse Logistics (1995-2005)

 

Sergio Rubio, Antonio Chamorro, Francisco Javier Miranda

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00512945/document

 

 

 

 

Identification of Reverse Logistics Decision Types from
Mathematical Models

 

Pascual Cortés Pellicer , Faustino Alarcón Valero

 

 

 

 

REVERSE LOGISTICS AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT ISSUES IN MANUFACTURING AND E-BUSINESS INDUSTRIES

 

Click to access Dissanayake.pdf

 

 

 

How the reverse supply chain impacts the financial performance of original equipment manufacturers

Samuel Bruning Larsen

2017

 

Click to access PhD_thesis_Summary_Samuel_Br_ning_Larsen.pdf

 

 

 

 

WASTE NOT, WANT NOT.

CAPTURING THE VALUE OF The Circular Economy Through Reverse Logistics

 

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

 

Click to access Reverse-Logistics.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Use of Recycled Materials in Manufacturing: Implications for Supply Chain Management and Operations Strategy

Joy M. Field

Click to access 002-0037.pdf

 

 

 

 

Design of a Forward/Reverse Logistics Network with Environmental Considerations

Masoud Rabbani *, a, Niloufar Akbarian Saravi a, Hamed Farrokhi-Asl ba

 

 

Quantitative models for reverse logistics: A review

 

Moritz Fleischmann a, Jacqueline M. Bloemhof-Ruwaard ~, Rommert Dekker b,*,
Erwin van der Laan ~, Jo A.E.E. van Nunen a, Luk N. Van Wassenhove c

Impact of Product Recovery on Logistics Network Design

REVERSE LOGISTICS NETWORK STRUCTURES AND DESIGN

MORITZ FLEISCHMANN
2001

 

Click to access 18511677.pdf

 

 

Chapter 4

Reverse Logistics Network Design

Moritz Fleischmann, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Jacqueline M. Bloemhof-Ruwaard, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Patrick Beullens, University of Leuven

Rommert Dekker, Erasmus University Rotterdam

https://8a9a5012-a-62cb3a1a-s-sites.googlegroups.com/site/ashivarov/home/obratna-logistika/revlog4.pdf?attachauth=ANoY7cp2kufwR6xgXQKXmQNIBXfG-iGMdzNhaEjxBpuxTOtkW8D9mP0XIkbM_bB75cpJWvOQN1sGaJ5EaVyBl2xyTrm2kAuU5oZZNngCBWjEzFnpRO_pqOETnn6-4X2-82AVZJnI9LDDHzn9NLD_r1C_iRREDz4T6MYcahQmkwja39fDkI02jf37_EldHcyFc_lQi_BZ24YALYm1sTY6AbAu1ETWRQNLwWFvwhb7L9WNMNdJGSBiPPE%3D&attredirects=0

 

 

 

 

Reverse Logistics – Capturing Value in the Extended Supply Chain

Moritz Fleischmann1∗, Jo van Nunen1, Ben Gräve2, and Rainer Gapp3

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F3-540-27354-9_8

 

 

 

 

Closed Loop Supply Chain (CLSC): Economics, Modelling, Management and Control

 

Int. J. Production Economics 183 (2017) 319–321

 

Click to access sp1.pdf

https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/international-journal-of-production-economics/vol/183/part/PB

 

 

 

 

 

INTEGRATED FORWARD-REVERSE LOGISTICS SYSTEM DESIGN: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION

 

by Yong Joo Lee, Ph.D. Washington State University May 2009

 

Click to access y_lee_042009.pdf

 

 

A New Approach in Supply Chain Design: studies in reverse logistics and nonprofit settings

2012

Berenguer Falguera, Gemma

 

https://escholarship.org/uc/item/572933w2

 

 

 

 

Reverse Logistics: Network Design Based on Life Cycle Assessment

 

Joanna Daaboul, Julien Le Duigou, Diana Penciuc, Benoît Eynard

 

https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01452146/document

 

 

 

 

Collection Center Location with Equity Considerations in Reverse Logistics Networks

I ̧sıl Taria,b, Sibel A. Alumurc

 

https://uwspace.uwaterloo.ca/bitstream/handle/10012/12781/INFOR%20-%20Collection%20center%20location%20with%20equity%20considerations%20in%20reverse….pdf?sequence=1

 

 

 

 

METHODS AND TOOLS FOR CLOSED LOOP SUPPLY CHAIN AND REVERSE LOGISTICS

Giuseppe Stecca

 

University of Rome “Tor Vergata”, Italy

 

 

 

 

REVERSE LOGISTICS FROM THE PAST TO PRESENT

Paul Alfred Colligan

 

 

 

 

SUSTAINABILITY OF INTERNATIONAL DUTCH SUPPLY CHAINS

Progress, effects and perspectives

© PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment
Agency

The Hague, 2014

 

 

 

Reverse Logistics: Overview and Challenges for Supply Chain Management

 

Sergio Rubio1,*and Beatriz Jiménez-Parra

 

 

 

 

 

Reverse Logistics Network Design: A Framework for Decision Making

 

Theresa J. Barker and Zelda B. Zabinsky

 

 

 

 

Strategic Planning Models for Reverse and Closed-Loop Supply Chains

Kishore K. Pochampally, Satish Nukala, Surendra M. Gupta

2008

Recycling, International Trade and the Environment

An Empirical Analysis

Authors: van Beukering, P.J

https://www.springer.com/us/book/9780792368984

 

 

 

 

 

Modelling and analysis of international recycling between developed and developing countries

 

Pieter J.H. van Beukering a,∗, Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh

 

 

 

Reverse logistics and closed-loop supply chain: A comprehensive review to explore the future

Kannan Govindan a,⇑, Hamed Soleimani b, Devika Kannan

 

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221714005633

 

 

 

 

Concepts, design and implementation of Reverse Logistics Systems for sustainable
supply chains in Brazil

 

Henrique Luiz Corrêa

Lucia Helena Xavier

 

 

 

Strategic Modeling of Service Parts Closed-Loop Supply Chain of Philips Healthcare:

A system dynamics approach

by
M.C. Koeken BSc

http://arno.uvt.nl/show.cgi?fid=120806

 

A Review of Decision-Support Tools and Performance Measurement for Sustainable Supply Chain Management

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A Systematic Literature Review of the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) Model Application with Special Attention to Environmental Issues

Eric N. Ntabe1,2,*, Luc LeBel1,2, Alison D. Munson2, Luis Antonio De Santa-Eulalia3

Click to access CIRRELT-2014-09.pdf

 

 

 

 

Perspectives in Reverse Supply Chain Management(R-SCM): A State of the Art Literature Review

Arvind Jayant*,a, P. Guptaa, S.K.Gargb

Click to access JJMIE-242-10.pdf

 

 

 

 

A robust optimization approach to closed-loop supply chain network design under uncertainty

Mir Saman Pishvaee, Masoud Rabbani *, Seyed Ali Torabi

Click to access AMM-2011.pdf

 

 

 

 

Towards supply chain sustainability: economic, environmental and social design and planning

Bruna Mota a, *, Maria Isabel Gomes b, Ana Carvalho a, Ana Paula Barbosa-Povoa a

Click to access 2015_motagomescarvalhobpovoa_jcp.pdf

 

 

An NPV Optimization Model for Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network Design and Planning

http://thescipub.com/pdf/10.3844/ajeassp.2017.114.125

 

 

 

 

 

Strategic and Tactical Planning of a Closed-Loop Supply Chain Network: A Linear Physical Programming Approach

Satish Nukala and Surendra M. Gupta

Click to access 004-0210.pdf

 

 

 

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING OF CLOSED LOOP SUPPLY CHAIN SYSTEMS FOR EVALUATING SYSTEM IMPROVEMENT STRATEGIES

Roberto Poles

Click to access 18619468.pdf

 

 

 

CLOSED LOOP SUPPLY CHAIN WITH PRODUCTION PLANNING

Wojciech Stecz

Click to access stecz_closed_2016_6_2_02.pdf

 

 

 

 

Closed-loop supply chain management: From conceptual to an action oriented framework on core acquisition

Jighyasu Gaur a, *, Ramesh Subramoniam b, Kannan Govindan c, Donald Huisingh

Click to access Journal%20of%20Cleaner%20Production%20Article.pdf

 

 

 

CLOSED-LOOP SUPPLY CHAIN NETWORK OPTIMIZATION FOR HONG KONG CARTRIDGE RECYCLING INDUSTRY

Closed Loop Supply Chain Management and Remanufacturing in the Automotive sector

2005

Modelling and Optimization of Closed Loops Supply Chains

A Closed-loop Supply Chain Model for Managing Overall Optimization of Eco-efficiency

Wei D. Solvang, Ziqiong Deng, Bjoern Solvang

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Modeling and Simulation of Closed-Loop Supply Chains Considering Economic Efficiency

 

Yoshitaka Tanimizu, Yusuke Shimizu, Koji Iwamura, Nobuhiro Sugimura

 

https://hal.inria.fr/hal-01452147/document

Closed-loop supply chains: What reverse logistics factors influence performance?

 

 

 

Adopting Circular Economy principles in supply chain management of organizations: reverse logistics

https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/2414339/Aurdahl.pdf?sequence=1

 

 

 SUSTAINABLE LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICES FOR SUSTAINABLE OPERATIONS AND MANAGEMENT

Strategic Planning and Design of Supply Chains: a Literature Review

Alessandro Lambiase1,*, Ernesto Mastrocinque1, Salvatore Miranda1 and Alfredo Lambiase

Open Business Models and Closed-Loop Value Chains: Redefining the Firm-Consumer Relationship

Sebastian Kortmann
Frank Piller

California Management Review 58, 3 (May 2016)

REVERSE SUPPLY CHAINS

ISSUES AND ANALYSIS

Surendra M. Gupta

CRC Press

Strategic Closed Loop Supply Chain Management

Baptiste Lebreton

Springer 2007

Closed-Loop Supply Chain Planning Model of Rare Metals

Dongmin Son, Songi Kim, Hyungbin Park and Bongju Jeong

Resource Flows: Material Flow Accounting (MFA), Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), Input Output Networks and other methods

Resource Flows: Material Flow Accounting (MFA), Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), Input Output Networks and other methods

 

 

 

From Materials Flow and Sustainability

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Key Terms:

  • MFA (Material Flow Analysis)
  • MFCA (Material Flow Cost Accounting)
  • LCA (Life Cycle Analysis)
  • SFA (Substance Flow Analysis)
  • MF WIO (Material Flow Waste Input Output)
  • IO LCA (Input Output Life Cycle Analysis)
  • KLEM (Capital, Labor, Energy, Materials)
  • PIOT ( Physical Input Output Tables)
  • MIOT (Monetary Input Output Tables)
  • IO MFN (Input Output Material Flow Network)
  • Social Ecology
  • Industrial Ecology
  • Urban Metabolism
  • Industrial Symbiosis
  • Industrial Metabolism
  • M-P Chains (Material Product Chains)
  • Global Value Chains
  • National Footprint Accounts
  • Inter Industry Analysis
  • Input Output Economics
  • End to End Supply Chains
  • Supply and Use Tables
  • Material Balance
  • Mass Balance
  • Biophysical Economics
  • Ecological Economics
  • Environmentally Extended Input Output Analysis (EE-IOA)
  • Stocks and Flows
  • MaTrace
  • Global MaTrace

 

Software for Data Analysis and Visualization:

 

This article lists several other software packages for MFA/SFA

https://www.azavea.com/blog/2017/08/09/six-sankey-diagram-tool/

 

 

Material Flow Analysis

From Practical Handbook of MATERIAL FLOW ANALYSIS

Material flow analysis (MFA) is a systematic assessment of the flows and stocks of materials within a system defined in space and time. It connects the sources, the pathways, and the intermediate and final sinks of a material. Because of the law of the conservation of matter, the results of an MFA can be controlled by a simple material balance comparing all inputs, stocks, and outputs of a process. It is this distinct characteristic of MFA that makes the method attractive as a decision-support tool in resource management, waste management, and environmental management.

An MFA delivers a complete and consistent set of information about all flows and stocks of a particular material within a system. Through balancing inputs and outputs, the flows of wastes and environmental loadings become visible, and their sources can be identified. The depletion or accumulation of material stocks is identified early enough either to take countermeasures or to promote further buildup and future utilization. Moreover, minor changes that are too small to be measured in short time scales but that could slowly lead to long-term damage also become evident.

Anthropogenic systems consist of more than material flows and stocks (Figure 1.1). Energy, space, information, and socioeconomic issues must also be included if the anthroposphere is to be managed in a responsible way. MFA can be performed without considering these aspects, but in most cases, these other factors are needed to interpret and make use of the MFA results. Thus, MFA is frequently coupled with the analysis of energy, economy, urban planning, and the like.

In the 20th century, MFA concepts have emerged in various fields of study at different times. Before the term MFA had been invented, and before its comprehensive methodology had been developed, many researchers used the law of conservation of matter to balance processes. In process and chemical engineering, it was common practice to analyze and balance inputs and outputs of chemical reactions. In the economics field, Leontief introduced input–output tables in the 1930s, thus laying the base for widespread application of input–output methods to solve economic problems. The first studies in the fields of resource conservation and environmental management appeared in the 1970s. The two original areas of application were (1) the metabolism of cities and (2) the analysis of pollutant pathways in regions such as watersheds or urban areas. In the following decades, MFA became a widespread tool in many fields, including process control, waste and wastewater treatment, agricultural nutrient management, water-quality management, resource conservation and recovery, product design, life cycle assessment (LCA), and others.

 

Substance Flow Analysis

From Feasibility assessment of using the substance flow analysis methodology for chemicals information at macro level

SFA is used for tracing the flow of a selected chemical (or group of substances) through a defined system. SFA is a specific type of MFA tool, dealing only with the analysis of flows of chemicals of special interest (Udo de Haes et al., 1997). SFA can be defined as a detailed level application of the basic MFA concept tracing the flow of selected chemical substances or compounds — e.g. heavy metals (mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), etc.), nitrogen (N), phosphorous (P), persistent organic substances, such as PCBs, etc. — through society.

An SFA identifies these entry points and quantifies how much of and where the selected substance is released. Policy measures may address these entry points, e.g. by end‐of‐pipe technologies. Its general aim is to identify the most effective intervention points for policies of pollution prevention. According to Femia and Moll (2005), SFA aims to answer the following questions:

• Where and how much of substance X flows through a given system?

• How much of substance X flows to wastes?
• Where do flows of substance X end up?
• How much of substance X is stored in durable goods?
• Where could substance X be more efficiently utilised in technical processes?
• What are the options for substituting the harmful substance?
• Where do substances end up once they are released into the natural environment?

When an SFA is to be carried out, it involves the identification and collection of data on the one hand, and modelling on the other. According to van der Voet et al. (OECD, 2000), there are three possible ways to ‘model’ the system:

Accounting (or bookkeeping) The input for such a system is the data that can be obtained from trade and production statistics. If necessary, further detailed data can be recovered on the contents of the specific substances in those recorded goods and materials. Emissions and environmental fluxes or concentration monitoring can be used for assessing the environmental flows. The accounting overview may also serve as an identification system for missing or inaccurate data.

Missing amounts can be estimated by applying the mass balance principle. In this way, inflows and outflows are balanced for every node, as well as for the system as a whole, unless accumulation within the system can be proven. This technique is most commonly used in material flow studies, and can be viewed as a form of descriptive statistics. There are, however, some examples of case studies that specifically address societal stocks, and use these as indicator for possible environmental problems in the future (OECD, 2000).

Static modelling is the process whereby the network of flow nodes is translated into a mathematical ‘language’, i.e. a set of linear equations, describing the flows and accumulations as inter‐dependent. Emission factors and distribution factors over the various outputs for the economic processes and partition coefficients for the environmental compartments can be used as variables in the equations. A limited amount of substance flow accounting data is also required for a solution of the linear equations. However, the modelling outcome is determined largely by the substance distribution patterns.

Static modelling can be extended by including a so‐called origin analysis in which the origins of one specific problematic flow can be traced on several levels. Three levels may be distinguished:

• direct causes derived directly from the nodes balance (e.g one of the direct causes of cadmium (Cd) load in soil is atmospheric deposition);

• economic sectors (or environmental policy target groups) directly responsible for the problem. This is identified by following the path back from node to node to the point of emission (e.g. waste incineration is one of the economic sectors responsible for the cadmium load in soil);

• ultimate origins found by following the path back to the system boundaries (e.g. the extraction, transport, processing and trade of zinc (Zn) ore is one of the ultimate origins of the cadmium load in soil).

Furthermore, the effectiveness of abatement measures can be assessed with static modelling by recording timelines on substances (OECD, 2000).

Dynamic modelling is different to the static SFA model, as it includes substance stocks accumulated in society as well as in various materials and products in households and across the built‐up environments.

For SFA, stocks play an important role in the prediction of future emissions and waste flows of products with a long life span. For example, in the case of societal stocks of PVC, policy makers need to be supplied with information about future PVC outflows. Today’s stocks become tomorrow’s emissions and waste flows. Studies have been carried out on the analysis of accumulated stocks of metals and other persistent toxics in the societal system. Such build‐ups can serve as an ‘early warning’ signal for future emissions and their potential effects, as one day these stocks may become obsolete and recognisably dangerous, e.g. as in the case of asbestos, CFCs, PCBs and mercury in chlor‐alkali cells. As the stocks are discarded, they end up as waste, emissions, factors of risks to environment and population. In some cases, this delay between inflow and outflow can be very long indeed.

Stocks of products no longer in use, but not yet discarded, are also important. These stocks could include: old radios, computers and/or other electronic equipment stored in basements or attics, out‐of‐use pipes still in the ground, obsolete stocks of chemicals no longer produced but still stored, such as lead paints and pesticides. These ‘hibernating stocks’ are likely to be very large, according to OECD estimates (2000). Estimating future emissions is a crucial issue if environmental policy makers are to anticipate problems and take timely, effective action. In order to do this, stocks cannot be ignored. Therefore, when using MFA or SFA models for forecasting, stocks should play a vital part. Flows and stocks interact with each other. Stocks grow when the inflows exceed the outflows of a (sub)‐system and certain outflows of a (sub)‐system are disproportional to the stocks.

For this dynamic model, additional information is needed for the time dimension of the variables, e.g. the life span of applications in the economy; the half life of compounds; the retention time in environmental compartments and so forth. Calculations can be made not only on the ‘intrinsic’ effectiveness of packages of measures, but also on their anticipated effects in a specific year in the future. They can also be made on the time
it takes for such measures to become effective. A dynamic model is therefore most suitable for scenario analysis, provided that the required data are available or can be estimated with adequate accuracy (OECD, 2000).

 

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA)

 

What is Life Cycle Assessment (LCA)?

As environmental awareness increases, industries and businesses are assessing how their activities affect the environment. Society has become concerned about the issues of natural resource depletion and environmental degradation. Many businesses have responded to this awareness by providing “greener” products and using “greener” processes. The environmental performance of products and processes has become a key issue, which is why some companies are investigating ways to minimize their effects on the environment. Many companies have found it advantageous to explore ways of moving beyond compliance using pollution prevention strategies and environmental management systems to improve their environmental performance. One such tool is LCA. This concept considers the entire life cycle of a product (Curran 1996).

Life cycle assessment is a “cradle-to-grave” approach for assessing industrial systems. “Cradle-to-grave” begins with the gathering of raw materials from the earth to create the product and ends at the point when all materials are returned to the earth. LCA evaluates all stages of a product’s life from the perspective that they are interdependent, meaning that one operation leads to the next. LCA enables the estimation of the cumulative environmental impacts resulting from all stages in the product life cycle, often including impacts not considered in more traditional analyses (e.g., raw material extraction, material transportation, ultimate product disposal, etc.). By including the impacts throughout the product life cycle, LCA provides a comprehensive view of the environmental aspects of the product or process and a more accurate picture of the true environmental trade-offs in product and process selection.

The term “life cycle” refers to the major activities in the course of the product’s life-span from its manufacture, use, and maintenance, to its final disposal, including the raw material acquisition required to manufacture the product. Exhibit 1-1 illustrates the possible life cycle stages that can be considered in an LCA and the typical inputs/outputs measured.

 

Methods of LCA

  • Process LCA
  • Economic Input Output LCA
  • Hybrid Approach

 

 

From Life cycle analysis (LCA) and sustainability assessment

 

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Material Input Output Network Analysis

  • PIOT (Physical Input Output Tables)
  • MIOT (Monetary Input Output Tables)
  • WIOT (Waste Input Output Tables
  • MRIO (Multi Regional Input Output)
  • SUT (Supply and Use Tables)

 

From Industrial ecology and input-output economics: An introduction

Although it was the pioneering contributions by Duchin (1990, 1992) that explicitly made the link between input–output economics and industrial ecology, developments in input– output economics had previously touched upon the core concept of industrial ecology.

Wassily Leontief himself incorporated key ideas of industrial ecology into an input– output framework. Leontief (1970) and Leontief and Ford (1972) proposed a model where the generation and the abatement of pollution are explicitly dealt with within an extended IO framework. This model, which combines both physical and monetary units in a single coefficient matrix, shows how pollutants generated by industries are treated by so-called ‘pollution abatement sectors.’ Although the model has been a subject of longstanding methodological discussions (Flick, 1974; Leontief, 1974; Lee, 1982), its structure captures the essence of industrial ecology concerns: abatement of environmental problems by exploiting inter-industry interactions. As a general framework, we believe that the model by Leontief (1970) and Leontief and Ford (1972) deserves credit as an archetype of the various models that have become widely referred to in the field of industrial ecology during the last decade, including mixed-unit IO, waste IO and hybrid Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models (Duchin, 1990; Konijn et al., 1997; Joshi, 1999; Nakamura and Kondo, 2002; Kagawa et al., 2004; Suh, 2004b). Notably, Duchin (1990) deals with the conversion of wastes to useful products, which is precisely the aim of industrial ecology, and subsequently, as part of a study funded by the first AT&T industrial ecology fellowship program, with the recovery of plastic wastes in particular (Duchin and Lange, 1998). Duchin (1992) clarifies the quantity-price relationships in an input–output model (a theme to which she has repeatedly returned) and draws its implications for industrial ecology, which has traditionally been concerned exclusively with physical quantities.

Duchin and Lange (1994) evaluated the feasibility of the recommendations of the Brundtland Report for achieving sustainable development. For that, they developed an input–output model of the global economy with multiple regions and analyzed the consequences of the Brundtland assumptions about economic development and technological change for future material use and waste generation. Despite substantial improvements in material efficiency and pollution reduction, they found that these could not offset the impact of population growth and the improved standards of living endorsed by the authors of the Brundtland Report.

Another pioneering study that greatly influenced current industrial ecology research was described by Ayres and Kneese (1969) and Kneese et al. (1970), who applied the massbalance principle to the basic input–output structure, enabling a quantitative analysis of resource use and material flows of an economic system. The contribution by Ayres and Kneese is considered the first attempt to describe the metabolic structure of an economy in terms of mass flows (see Ayres, 1989; Haberl, 2001).

Since the 1990s, new work in the areas of economy-wide research about material flows, sometimes based on Physical Input–Output Tables (PIOTs), has propelled this line of research forward in at least four distinct directions: (1) systems conceptualization (Duchin, 1992; Duchin, 2005a); (2) development of methodology (Konijn et al., 1997; Nakamura and Kondo, 2002; Hoekstra, 2003; Suh, 2004c; Giljum et al., 2004; Giljum and Hubacek, 2004; Dietzenbacher, 2005; Dietzenbacher et al., 2005; Weisz and Duchin, 2005); (3) compilation of data (Kratterl and Kratena, 1990; Kratena et al., 1992; Pedersen, 1999; Ariyoshi and Moriguchi, 2003; Bringezu et al., 2003; Stahmer et al., 2003); and (4) applications (Duchin, 1990; Duchin and Lange, 1994, 1998; Hubacek and Giljum, 2003; Kagawa et al., 2004). PIOTs generally use a single unit of mass to describe physical flows among industrial sectors of a national economy. In principle, such PIOTs are capable of satisfying both column-wise and row-wise mass balances, providing a basis for locating materials within a national economy.3 A notable variation in this tradition, although it had long been used in input–output economic studies starting with the work of Leontief, is the mixed-unit IO table. Konijn et al. (1997) analyzed a number of metal flows in the Netherlands using a mixed-unit IO table, and Hoekstra (2003) further improved both the accounting framework and data. Unlike the original PIOTs, mixed-unit IOTs do not assure the existence of column-wise mass-balance, but they make it possible to address more complex questions. Lennox et al. (2004) present the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF), where a dynamic IO model is implemented on the basis of a hybrid input–output table. These studies constitute an important pillar of industrial ecology that is generally referred to as Material Flow Analysis (MFA).4

Although the emphasis in industrial ecology has arguably been more on the materials side, energy issues are without doubt also among its major concerns. In this regard, energy input–output analysis must be considered another important pillar for the conceptual basis of ‘industrial energy metabolism.’ The oil shock in the 1970s stimulated extensive research on the structure of energy use, and various studies quantifying the energy associated with individual products were carried out (Berry and Fels, 1973; Chapman, 1974). Wright (1974) utilized Input–Output Analysis (IOA) for energy analysis, which previously had been dominated by process-based analysis (see also Hannon, 1974; Bullard and Herendeen, 1975; Bullard et al., 1978). The two schools of energy analysis, namely process analysis and IO energy analysis, were merged by Bullard and Pillarti (1976) into hybrid energy analysis (see also van Engelenburg et al., 1994; Wilting,1996). Another notable contribution to the area of energy analysis was made by Cleveland et al. (1984), who present a comprehensive analysis, using the US input–output tables, quantifying the interconnection of energy and economic activities from a biophysical standpoint (see Cleveland, 1999; Haberl, 2001; Kagawa and Inamura, 2004). These studies shed light on how an economy is structured by means of energy flows and informs certain approaches to studying climate change (see for example Proops et al., 1993; Wier et al., 2001).

What generally escapes attention in both input–output economics and industrial ecology, despite its relevance for both, is the field of Ecological Network Analysis (ENA). Since Lotka (1925) and Lindeman (1942), material flows and energy flows have been among the central issues in ecology. It was Hannon (1973) who first introduced concepts from input–output economics to analyze the structure of energy utilization in an ecosystem. Using an input–output framework, the complex interactions between trophic levels or ecosystem compartments can be modeled, taking all direct and indirect relationships between components into account. Hannon’s approach was adopted, modified and re-introduced by various ecologists. Finn (1976, 1977), among others, developed a set of analytical measures to characterize the structure of an ecosystem using a rather extensive reformulation of the approach proposed by Hannon (1973). Another important development in the tradition of ENA is so-called environ analysis. Patten (1982) proposed the term ‘environ’ to refer to the relative interdependency between ecosystem components in terms of nutrient or energy flows. Results of environ analysis are generally presented as a comprehensive network flow diagram, which shows the relative magnitudes of material or energy flows between the ecosystem components through direct and indirect relationships (Levine, 1980; Patten, 1982). Ulanowicz and colleagues have broadened the scope of materials and energy flow analysis both conceptually and empirically (Szyrmer and Ulanowicz, 1987). Recently Bailey et al. (2004a, b) made use of the ENA tradition to analyze the flows of several metals through the US economy. Suh (2005) discusses the relationship between ENA and IOA and shows that Patten’s environ analysis is similar to Structural Path Analysis (SPA), and that the ENA framework tends to converge toward the Ghoshian framework rather than the Leontief framework although using a different formalism (Defourny and Thorbecke, 1984; Ghosh, 1958).

 

 

From Materials and energy flows in industry and ecosystem netwoks : life cycle assessment, input-output analysis, material flow analysis, ecological network flow analysis, and their combinations for industrial ecology

 

MFA

 

From Regional distribution and losses of end-of-life steel throughout
multiple product life cycles—Insights from the global multiregional
MaTrace model

mfa4

From Feasibility assessment of using the substance flow analysis methodology for chemicals information at macro level

 

mfa2MFA3

 

Sankey Diagram

From Hybrid Sankey diagrams: Visual analysis of multidimensional data for understanding resource use

Sankey diagrams are used to visualise flows of energy, materials or other resources in a variety of applications. Schmidt (2008a) reviewed the history and uses of these diagrams. Originally, they were used to show flows of energy, first in steam engines, more recently for modern systems such as power plants (e.g. Giuffrida et al., 2011) and also to give a big-picture view of global energy use (Cullen and Allwood, 2010). As well as energy, Sankey diagrams are widely used to show flows of resources (Schmidt, 2008a). Recent examples in this journal include global flows of tungsten (Leal-Ayala et al., 2015), biomass in Austria (Kalt, 2015), and the life-cycle of car components (Diener and Tillman, 2016). More widely, they have been used to show global production and use of steel and aluminium (Cullen et al., 2012; Cullen and Allwood, 2013), and flows of natural resources such as water (Curmi et al., 2013). In all of these cases, the essential features are: (1) the diagram represents physical flows, related to a given functional unit or period of time; and (2) the magnitude of flows is shown by the link1 widths, which are proportional to an extensive property of the flow such as mass or energy (Schmidt, 2008b). Creating these diagrams is supported by software tools such as e!Sankey (ifu Hamburg, 2017), and several Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Material Flow Analysis (MFA) packages include features to create Sankey diagrams.

 

From Hybrid Sankey diagrams: Visual analysis of multidimensional data for understanding resource use

 

mfa7

 

Please see my related posts:

Wassily Leontief and Input Output Analysis in Economics

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Stock Flow Consistent Input Output Models (SFCIO)

Measuring Globalization: Global Multi Region Input Output Data Bases (G-MRIO)

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

Development of Global Trade and Production Accounts: UN SEIGA Initiative

Accounting For Global Carbon Emission Chains

Stock Flow Consistent Models for Ecological Economics

Jay W. Forrester and System Dynamics

Classical roots of Interdependence in Economics

Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling

 

 

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

SPECIAL SESSION ON MATERIAL FLOW ACCOUNTING

OECD

Paris, 24 October 2000

Click to access 4425421.pdf

An Innovative Accounting Framework for the Food-Energy-Water Nexus
Application of the MuSIASEM approach to three case studies

Click to access i3468e.pdf

Creating your own online data visualizations: SankeyMatic, OMAT, CartoDB

https://metabolismofcities.org/blog/4-creating-your-own-online-data-visualizations

Hybrid Sankey diagrams: Visual analysis of multidimensional data for understanding resource use

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921344917301167

e!Sankey

Visualization of energy, cash and material flows with a Sankey diagram

https://www.ifu.com/en/e-sankey/sankey-diagrams/

UPIOM: A New Tool of MFA and Its Application to the Flow of Iron and Steel Associated with Car Production

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es1024299

Material flow analysis

WIKIPEDIA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Material_flow_analysis

Economy-wide Material Flow Accounting. Introduction and Guide.

Version 1.0

Article · January 2015

Fridolin Krausmann, Helga Weisz, Nina Eisenmenger, Helmut Schütz, Willi Haas
and Anke Schaffartzik

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/272885234_Economy-wide_Material_Flow_Accounting_Introduction_and_Guide_Version_10

Society’s Metabolism The Intellectual History of Materials Flow Analysis,

Part II, 1970-1998

Marina Fischer-Kowalski and Walter Huttler

Institute for Intenliscipiimny
Studies of Austrian Universities
University of Vienna
Vienna, Austria

Click to access Fischer-Kowalski_Huttler_1998.pdf

“Society’s Metabolism. The Intellectual History of Material Flow Analysis,

Part I, 1860 – 1970″.

Fischer-Kowalski, M.

1998.

Journal of Industrial Ecology 2(1): 61-78

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/249481665_Society%27s_Metabolism_The_Intellectual_History_of_Materials_Flow_Analysis_Part_I_1860-_1970

Analysis on energy–water nexus by Sankey diagram: the case of Beijing

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19443994.2013.768038

Unified Materials Information System (UMIS): An Integrated Material Stocks and Flows Data Structure

First published: 07 February 2018

 

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jiec.12730

Material Flow Cost Accounting with Umberto®

Schmidt, A. Hache, B.; Herold, F.; Götze, U.

Click to access 2-05_Material_Flow_Cost_Accounting.pdf

Click to access WEF_Richards.pdf

Study on Data for a Raw Material System Analysis: Roadmap and Test of the Fully Operational MSA for Raw Materials

Final Report

BIO by Deloitte

(2015)

Prepared for the European Commission, DG GROW.

https://www.certifico.com/component/attachments/download/2886

Integrated Analysis of Energy, Material and Time Flows in Manufacturing Systems

 

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S2212827116305479/1-s2.0-S2212827116305479-main.pdf?_tid=90701061-86fc-4c11-b078-cb577d8f8bdf&acdnat=1525719999_9dcee960cd6033d950a583cea379539f

e! Sankey

Visualization of energy, cash and material flows with a Sankey diagram

The most popular software for creating Sankey diagrams. Visualize the cash, material & energy flow or value streams in your company or along the supply chain. Share these appealing diagrams in reports or presentations.

 

https://www.ifu.com/en/e-sankey/?gclid=CjwKCAjw8r_XBRBkEiwAjWGLlIcWq2pRigMmJLKAXP4-ndFXR9ik41MUp9ahFZL2M9Ht5CKtwKIvTRoCdbsQAvD_BwE

MATERIAL FLOW ANALYSIS WITH SOFTWARE STAN

Oliver Cencic* and Helmut Rechberger
Institute for Water Quality Resources and Waste Management
Vienna University of Technology
Vienna A-1040, Austria

Click to access CENCIC%20and%20RECHBERGER%202008%20Material%20Flow%20Analysis%20with%20Software%20STAN.pdf

Recovery of Key Metals in the Electronics Industry in the
People’s Republic of China: An Opportunity in Circularity
(Initial Findings)

January 2018

Created as Part of the Platform for Accelerating the Circular Economy

Click to access 39777_Recovery_Key_Metals_Electronics_Industry_China_Opportunity_Circularity_report_2018.pdf

Sankey diagram

WIKIPEDIA

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sankey_diagram

MATERIAL FLOWS IN THE UNITED STATES
A PHYSICAL ACCOUNTING OF THE U.S. INDUSTRIAL ECONOMY

DONALD ROGICH
AMY CASSARA
IDDO WERNICK
MARTA MIRANDA

WRI

Click to access material_flows_in_the_united_states.pdf

Industrial ecology and input-output economics: An introduction

Sangwon Suh

2005

Click to access Industrial-ecology-and-input-output-economics-An-introduction.pdf

A Handbook of Industrial Ecology

Robert Ayres

Leslie Ayres

http://pustaka.unp.ac.id/file/abstrak_kki/EBOOKS/A%20Handbook%20of%20Industrial%20Ecology.pdf#page=100

Physical and Monetary Input-Output Analysis:
What Makes the Difference?

Helga Weisz
Klagenfurt University
Faye Duchin
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Click to access ab5b067aacafe555acbc1e077b5b42e1fc92.pdf

Theory of materials and energy flow analysis in ecology and economics

Sangwon Suh

2005

Click to access Materials-and-energy-flows-in-industry-and-ecosystem-networks.pdf

Conceptual Foundations and Applications of Physical Input-Output Tables

Stefan Giljum

Hubacek Klaus

2009

Click to access Conceptual-Foundations-and-Applications-of-Physical-Input-Output-Tables.pdf

Alternative Approaches of Physical Input-Output Analysis to Estimate
Primary Material Inputs of Production and Consumption Activities

Stefan Giljum

Hubacek Klaus

2004

Click to access 00b7d51cc1257aba71000000.pdf

Industrial Ecology: A Critical Review

Click to access IE.pdf

EXIOPOL – development and illustrative analyses of a detailed global
multiregional environmentally-extended supply and use table/input output
table

Article in Economic Systems Research · May 2013

Click to access 561d652a08aecade1acb3bfc.pdf

Developing the Sectoral Environmental Database for Input- Output Analysis: Comprehensive Environmental Data Archive of the U.S.

Article in Economic Systems Research · December 2005

Click to access 0c960531f1d910cda1000000.pdf

The material basis of the global economy

Worldwide patterns of natural resource extraction and their
implications for sustainable resource use policies

Arno Behrens,⁎, Stefan Giljum, Jan Kovanda, Samuel Niza

Click to access Material_Basis.pdf

The Sankey Diagram in Energy and Material Flow Management

Part I: History

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2008.00004.x

The Sankey Diagram in Energy and Material Flow Management

Part II: Methodology and Current Applications

First published: 28 April 2008

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2008.00015.x

Material and Energy Flow Analysis

First published: 23 March 2010

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ceat.201090015

8. Biophysical economics: from physiocracy to ecological economics and industrial
ecology

Cutler J Cleveland

Article · January 1999

Click to access 0deec51b7274ca0035000000.pdf

The Use of Input-Output Analysis in REAP to allocate Ecological Footprints and Material Flows to Final Consumption Categories

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.457.7453&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Waste Input–Output Material Flow Analysis of Metals in the Japanese Economy

Shinichiro Nakamura1 and Kenichi Nakajima2

Click to access 2550.pdf

A multi-regional environmental input-output model to quantify embodied material flows

Stefan Giljum a, Christian Lutz b,Ariane Jungnitz

Click to access Giljum%20et%20al_IIOA.pdf

Click to access jungnitzgiljumlutz.pdf

Material Flow Accounting and Analysis (MFA)

A Valuable Tool for Analyses of Society-Nature Interrelationships

Entry prepared for the Internet Encyclopedia of Ecological Economics

Friedrich Hinterberger *, Stefan Giljum, Mark Hammer

Sustainable Europe Research Institute (SERI)

Click to access material.pdf

Human Ecology: Industrial Ecology

Faye Duchin
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute

Stephen H. Levine
Tufts University

Click to access rpi0603.pdf

Development of the Physical Input Monetary Output Model for Understanding Material Flows within Ecological -Economic Systems

XU Ming

2010

Click to access 2010010204.pdf

Accounting for raw material equivalents of traded goods

A comparison of input-output approaches in physical, monetary, and mixed units

Click to access working-paper-87-web.pdf

Material Flow Accounts and Policy. Data for Sweden 2004

by: Annica Carlsson, Anders Wadeskog, Viveka Palm, Fredrik Kanlén Environmental Accounts, Statistics Sweden,

2006.

Click to access mi1301_2004a01_br_mift0701.pdf

Economy-wide Material Flow Accounts with Hidden Flows for Finland: 1945–2008

Jukka Hoffrén (ed.)

Click to access isbn_978-952-244-233-8.pdf

EXIOBASE
Analysing environmental impacts of the global, interlinked economy

Konstantin Stadler, Richard Wood

Industrial Ecology Programme, NTNU, Norway

2014

http://www.syke.fi/download/noname/%7B3C267869-D6AE-447F-A98D-547C1D2B5819%7D/105511

ESSAYS ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND ENVIRONMENT
An Input-Output Analysis

http://repositorio.conicyt.cl/bitstream/handle/10533/179687/MUNOZ_PABLO_2868D.pdf?sequence=1

Using Material Flow Analysis for Sustainable Materials Management: Part of the Equation for Priority Setting

Frederick W. Allen

Priscilla A. Halloran

Angela H. Leith

M. Clare Lindsay

https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1113&context=usepapapers

“Supply-Extension versus Use-Extension in Environmentally Extended Input-Output Modelling: Analyzing Physical Flows within the Austrian Economy”

Hanspeter Wieland*1, Nina Eisenmenger2, Dominik Wiedenhofer2, Martin Bruckner1

Click to access IO-Workshop-2017_Wieland_abstract.pdf

A Material Flow Analysis of Phosphorus in Japan
The Iron and Steel Industry as a Major Phosphorus Source

Kazuyo Matsubae-Yokoyama, Hironari Kubo, Kenichi Nakajima,
and Tetsuya Nagasaka

Click to access gpa_101_wa.pdf

Material Flows and Economic Development
Material Flow Analysis of the Hungarian Economy

Click to access IR-02-057.pdf

The material footprint of nations

Thomas O. Wiedmanna,b,c,1, Heinz Schandlb,d, Manfred Lenzenc, Daniel Moranc,e, Sangwon Suhf, James Westb, and Keiichiro Kanemotoc

Click to access 6271.full.pdf

Calculation of direct and indirect material inputs by type of raw material and economic activities

Paper presented at the London Group Meeting
19 – 21 June 2006

Karl Schoer

Wiesbaden, July 2006

Click to access Raw_material_Germany.pdf

Waste Input-Output  (WIO) Table

Shinichiro NAKAMURA and Yasushi KONDO,

Waste Input-Output Analysis: Concepts and Application to Industrial Ecology.

In Series: Eco-Efficiency in Industry and Science,

Vol. 26, Springer, February 2009.

http://www.f.waseda.jp/nakashin/WIO.html

Economy Wide Material Flow Accounting (EW-MFA)

http://data.geus.dk/MICASheetsEditor/document/21e5c517-53b9-4b00-b7a3-55939829824b

Material flow analyses in technosphere and biosphere
– metals, natural resources and chemical products

Viveka Palm

Click to access FULLTEXT01.pdf

The UK waste input-output table: Linking waste generation to the UK economy.

Salemdeeb, R., Al-Tabbaa, A. and Reynolds, C.

Waste Management & Research, 34 (10). pp. 1089-1094.

Click to access Re_Main_Document.pdf

Multiregion input / output tables and material footprint accounts session

Discussion of aspects of of MRIO / material footprinting work, and considerations for developing and resource based economies.

James West | Senior experimental scientist
25 May 2016

Click to access 10_MFand_MRIO_CSIRO_English.pdf

Construction of hybrid Input-Output tables for E3 CGE model calibration and consequences on energy policy analysis

COMBET Emmanuel – CIRED
GHERSI Frédéric – CIRED
LEFEVRE Julien – CIRED
LE TREUT Gaëlle – CIRED

Click to access 6988.pdf

Prospects and Drivers of Future European Resource Requirements
Evidence from a Multi-National Macroeconomic Simulation Study*

Paper prepared for the final WIOD Conference
Groningen, April 2012
by
Martin Distelkamp, Mark Meyer** and Bernd Meyer

GWS mbH Osnabrueck

Click to access Paper_Distelkamp_et_al.pdf

Material Flow Analysis to Evaluate Sustainability in Supply Chains

Haroune Zaghdaoui, Anicia Jaegler, Natacha Gondran, Jairo Montoya-Torres

Click to access 4189.pdf

Physical and monetary input–output analysis: What makes the difference?

Helga Weisz , Faye Duchin

Click to access Physical%20and%20monetary%20input-output.pdf

Recycling and Remanufacturing in Input-Output Models

Randall W Jackson, West Virginia University
Taelim Choi, Georgia Institute of Technology
Nancey Green Leigh, Georgia Institute of Technology

Click to access WP2008-4.pdf

The Water Footprint Assessment Manual

Click to access TheWaterFootprintAssessmentManual_2.pdf

The New Plastics Economy
Rethinking the future of plastics

Click to access WEF_The_New_Plastics_Economy.pdf

A Comparison of Environmental Extended Input-Output (EEIO) and Process Data in Life Cycle Assessment

Click to access Comparing-Input-Output-and-Process-LCA-Data.CE-form2-LM-edits.pdf

Managing Logistics Flows Through Enterprise Input-Output Models

V. Albino1, A. Messeni Petruzzelli1 and O. G. Okogbaa2

Click to access InTech-Managing_logistics_flows_through_enterprise_input_output_models.pdf

Social Metabolism and Accounting Approaches

Module:ECOLECON

Ecological economics

https://proxy.eplanete.net/galleries/broceliande7/social-metabolism-and-accounting-approaches

Input-Output Analysis in Laptop Computer Manufacturing

https://waset.org/publications/9998422/input-output-analysis-in-laptop-computer-manufacturing

IRON, STEEL AND ALUMINIUM IN THE UK: MATERIAL FLOWS AND THEIR
ECONOMIC DIMENSIONS

Final Project Report, March 2004

Click to access 0304_WP_Biffaward_Steel_Al-Final.pdf

A Framework for Sustainable Materials Management

Joseph Fiksel

Click to access Framework_for_SMM.pdf

Energy and water conservation synergy in China: 2007–2012

Yi Jina, Xu Tanga,⁎, Cuiyang Fenga, Mikael Höökb

Click to access Energy-and-water-conservation-synergy-in-China-2007-2012.pdf

Contributions of Material and Energy Flow Accounting to Urban Ecosystems Analysis: Case Study Singapore

Niels B. Schulz

Click to access IAS-WP136.pdf

A review of recent multi-region input–output models used for consumption-based
emission and resource accounting

Thomas Wiedmann

http://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/19433/a_review.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Physical Input Output (PIOT) Tables:  Developments and Future

Click to access 35_20100427111_Hoekstra-PIOT.pdf

Materials and energy flows in industry and ecosystem netwoks : life cycle assessment, input-output analysis, material flow analysis, ecological network flow analysis, and their combinations for industrial ecology

Suh, S,

2004

https://openaccess.leidenuniv.nl/handle/1887/8399

Applying Ecological Input‐Output Flow Analysis to Material Flows in Industrial Systems: Part I: Tracing Flows

First published: 08 February 2008

Applying Ecological Input‐Output Flow Analysis to Material Flows in Industrial Systems: Part II: Flow Metrics

First published: 08 February 2008

Local systems, global impacts
Using life cycle assessment to analyse the
potential and constraints of industrial symbioses

rising to global challenges

25 Years of Industrial Ecology

 https://is4ie.org/resources/documents/4/download

Literature study on Industrial Ecology

Gerard Fernandez Gonzalez

 

https://upcommons.upc.edu/bitstream/handle/2117/77035/Final%20version%20-%20Document.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

 

 

 

 

 

Practical Handbook of MATERIAL FLOW ANALYSIS

Paul H. Brunner and Helmut Rechberger

Handbook of Input-Output Economics in Industrial Ecology


 
edited by Sangwon Suh

Taking Stock of Industrial Ecology

edited by Roland Clift, Angela Druckman

Ecological Input-Output Analysis-Based Sustainability Analysis of Industrial Systems

 

Cristina Piluso and Yinlun Huang*

 

Helen H. Lou

An Extended Model for Tracking Accumulation Pathways of Materials Using Input–Output Tables: Application to Copper Flows in Japan

Ryosuke Yokoi * ID , Jun Nakatani ID and Yuichi Moriguchi
2008

TRACING MATERIAL FLOWS ON INDUSTRIAL SITES

Kálmán KÓSI and András TORMA
2005

 

 

 

Metabolism of Cities

 

https://metabolismofcities.org

 

 

 

 

 

Feasibility assessment of using the substance flow analysis methodology for chemicals information at macro level

 

https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/technical_report_2007_1/file

 

 

 

Structural Investigation of Aluminum in the US Economy using Network Analysis

Philip Nuss, Wei-Qiang Chen Hajime Ohno, and T.E. Graedel

 

Click to access 2016_SA_Network-Analysis-Aluminum_EST.pdf

 

 

 

 

Economy-wide Material Flow Analysis and Indicators

http://www.umweltgesamtrechnung.at/ms/ugr/ugr_en/ugr_physicalaccounts/ugr_materialflowaccounts/

 

 

 

 

Regional distribution and losses of end-of-life steel throughout
multiple product life cycles—Insights from the global multiregional
MaTrace model

 

Stefan Pauliuka,∗, Yasushi Kondob, Shinichiro Nakamurab, Kenichi Nakajimac

 

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0921344916302774/1-s2.0-S0921344916302774-main.pdf?_tid=838ffb90-95a9-4f3a-a617-f619f32d4558&acdnat=1531385937_3f722f2c2f71337c47a1024b0c841d16

 

 

 

 

MaTrace: Tracing the Fate of Materials over Time and Across Products in Open-Loop Recycling

Shinichiro Nakamura,*,† Yasushi Kondo,† Shigemi Kagawa,‡ Kazuyo Matsubae,§ Kenichi Nakajima,⊥ and Tetsuya Nagasaka§

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/es500820h

 

 

 

 

 

Tracing China’s energy flow and carbon dioxide flow based on Sankey diagrams

 

Feiyin Wang1,2 • Pengtao Wang1,2 • Xiaomeng Xu1,2 • Lihui Dong1,2 • Honglai Xue1,2 • Shuai Fu1,2 • Yingxu Ji

 

Click to access Tracing-Chinas-energy-flow-and-carbon-dioxide-flow-based-on-Sankey-diagrams.pdf

 

 

 

 

Materials Flow and Sustainability

USGS

 

 

 

Life-cycle assessment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_assessment

 

 

 

 

LIFE CYCLE ASSESSMENT: PRINCIPLES AND PRACTICE

Scientific Applications International Corporation (SAIC) 11251 Roger Bacon Drive
Reston, VA 20190

 

Click to access chapter1_frontmatter_lca101.pdf

 

 

 

 

Life cycle analysis (LCA) and sustainability assessment

 

Click to access IntroductiontoLCAAU32013.pdf

Credit Chains and Production Networks

Credit Chains and Production Networks

There are three kind of flows in a Supply Chain

  • Goods
  • Information
  • Financial

 

Credit Terms in a Supplier Buyer contracts determine payment delays which accumulate in current accounts of a Firm.

  • Account Receivables
  • Account Payables

 

Credit Relations

  • Bank to Bank
  • Bank to Firm
  • Firm to Firm

Dyad of Credit Relations

  • Supplier – Buyer

 

Triad of Credit Relations

  • Supplier – Bank – Buyer

Sources of Systemic Risk

  • Failure of a Firm and its impact on Suppliers and Customers (Flow of Goods)
  • Failure of a Bank and its impact on Trade Credit
  • Credit Contraction due to de-risking by the Banks
  • Decline in Correspondent Banking relations and its impact on Trade Finance

 

From Credit Chains and Sectoral Co-movement: Does the Use of Trade
Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?

Trade credit is an important source of short-term financing for firms, not only in the U.S., as documented by Petersen and Rajan (1997), but also around the World. For instance, accounts payables are larger than short-term debt in 60 percent of the countries covered by Worldscope. Also, across the world most firms simultaneously receive credit from their suppliers and grant it to their customers, which tend to be concentrated on specific sectors.  These characteristics of trade credit financing have led some authors to propose it as a mechanism for the propagation and amplification of idiosyncratic shocks. The intuition behind the mechanism is straightforward; a firm that faces a default by its customers may run into liquidity problems that force it to default to its own suppliers. Therefore, in a network of firms that borrow from each other, a temporary shock to the liquidity of some firms may cause a chain reaction in which other firms also get in financial difficulties, thus resulting in a large and persistent decline in aggregate activity. This idea was first formalized by Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) in a partial equilibrium setting, and has been recently extended to a general equilibrium environment by Cardoso-Lecourtois (2004), and Boissay (2006) who have also provided evidence of the potential quantitative importance of the mechanism by calibrating their models to the cases of Mexico and the U.S., respectively.

From Ontology of Bankruptcy Diffusion through Trade Credit
Channel

A supply network is a network of entities interacting to transform raw material into finished product for customers. Since interdependencies among supply network members on material, information, and finance are becoming increasingly intensive, financial status of one firm not only depends on its own management, but also on the performance and behaviours of other members. Therefore, understanding the financial flows variability and the material interactions is a key to quantify the risk of a firm. Due to the complex structure and dynamic interactions of modern supply networks, there are some difficulties faced by pure analysis approaches in analyzing financial status of the supply network members and the high degree of nonlinear interactions between them. Mathematical and operation research models usually do not function very well for this kind of financial decision making. These models always start with many assumptions and have difficulties modeling such complex systems that include many entities, relationships, features, parameters, and constraints. In addition, traditional modeling and analysis tools lack the ability to predict the impact of a specific event on the performance of the entire supply network.  Current financial data analysis with large volumes of structure data cannot offer the full picture and intrinsic insights into the risk nature of a company. Motivated by the literature gap in risk monitoring in investment background and limitations of analysis approaches for handling bankruptcy contagion phenomenon, we propose an ontological approach to present a formal, shared conceptualization of this domain knowledge.

From Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis

The severe recession that is hitting the global economy, with very low or even negative growth rates, has caused widespread contractions in international trade, both in developed and developing countries. World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast that exports will decline by roughly 9% in volume terms in 2009 due to the collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn in decades. The contraction in developed countries will be particularly severe with exports falling by 10%. In developing countries, which account for one-third of world trade, exports will shrink by some 2% to 3% in 2009.

The contraction in international trade has been accompanied by a sharp decline in the availability of trade finance. This decline is only partly explained by the contraction in demand: according to a BAFT (Banker’s Association for Trade and Finance) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) joint survey (2009), flows of trade finance to developed countries have fallen by 6% relative to the previous year, more than the reduction in trade flows, suggesting that part of the fall reflects a disruption of financial intermediation. The contraction in value of trade finance has also been accompanied by a sharp increase in its price. Fear that the decline in trade finance and the increase in its cost would accelerate the slowdown of world trade has triggered a number of government initiatives in support of trade finance (Chauffour and Farole,2009).

The situation is especially worrisome for firms operating in developing countries which rely heavily on trade finance to support both their exports and imports.1 With a restricted access to financing and an increased cost of financing, these firms may find difficulties in maintaining their production and trade activities.

 

Please see my related posts:

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) / Financial Supply Chain Management (F-SCM)

Production Chain Length and Boundary Crossings in Global Value Chains

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Development of Global Trade and Production Accounts: UN SEIGA Initiative

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

The Collapse of Global Trade during Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009

Understanding Global Value Chains – G20/OECD/WB Initiative

Economics of Trade Finance

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

Contagion in Financial (Balance sheets) Networks

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

LIQUIDITY, BUSINESS CYCLES, AND MONETARY POLICY

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
London School of Economics

John Moore
Edinburgh University and London School of Economics

27 November 2001

Click to access kimo.pdf

 

 

Credit Cycles

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki; John Moore

The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 105, No. 2.

(Apr., 1997),

Click to access km.pdf

 

Credit chains

Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (Princeton University)

John Moore (University of Edinburgh)

Date January 1997

Click to access id118_esedps.pdf

Click to access Kiyotaki_CreditChains.pdf

 

 

Credit and Business Cycles

N Kiyotaki

1998

Click to access Credit-and-BusinessCycles.pdf

 

 

Inter-Enterprise Credit and Adjustment  During Financial Crises: The Role of Firm Size

Fabrizio Coricelli

Marco Frigerio

July, 2 2016

Click to access Coricelli%2C%20Fabrizio%20paper.pdf

 

 

Credit chains and bankruptcy propagation in production networks

Stefano Battiston, Domenico Delli Gatti, Mauro Gallegati,
Bruce Greenwald, Joseph E. Stiglitz

2007

Click to access 2007_Credit_Chains.pdf

 

 

Trade Finance in Crisis : Market Adjustment or Market Failure ?

Jean-Pierre Chauffour

Thomas Farole

Date Written: July 1, 2009

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1437955

Resaleable debt and systemic risk

Jason Roderick Donaldson , Eva Micheler

2018

Click to access Donaldson-Micheler-Resaleable_Debt.pdf

 

Supply chains and credit-market shocks: Some implications for emerging markets,

Jinjarak, Yothin (2013)

ADBI Working Paper Series, No. 443

Click to access 770887406.pdf

 

 

Financial Amplification Mechanisms and the Federal Reserve’s Supply of Liquidity during the Crisis

Asani Sarkar
Jeffrey Shrader

Staff Report no. 431
February 2010

Click to access sr431.pdf

 

 

Aggregate Fluctuations and the Role of Trade Credit

Lin Shao

2017

Click to access swp2017-37.pdf

 

 

Supply Chain Disruptions and Trade Credit

LU Yi OGURA Yoshiaki

TODO Yasuyuki ZHU Lianming

2017

Click to access 17e054.pdf

 

 

Credit Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations in  an Economy with Production Heterogeneity

Aubhik Khan

Julia K. Thomas

September 2013

Click to access KhanThomasDCTsept2013.pdf

 

 

Financial Frictions in Production Networks

Saki Bigio

Jennifer La’O

February 7, 2013

Click to access FinancialFrictionsNetworks.pdf

 

Working Paper No. 67, April 2016

Click to access WP-67.pdf

 

 

The Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations in a Credit Network Economy

Levent Altinoglu

October 16, 2016

Click to access Altinoglu_JMP_CurrentVersion.pdf

September 30, 2015

Click to access fcb800d01a5b8dce9ed13a4a200bf51f6fed.pdf

 

Consolidated Bibliography

WTO

Click to access aid4tradesupplychain13_biblio_e.pdf

 

 

Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms

Shaowen Luo

December 4, 2015

Click to access Luo.pdf

 

FDI, Trade Credit, and Transmission of Global Liquidity Shocks:
Evidence from Chinese Manufacturing Firms

Shu Lin and Haichun Ye

Click to access Lin–Ye_paper.pdf

 

 

Trade Credit, Financing Structure and Growth

Junjie Xia

October 27, 2016

Click to access jmp_oct16.pdf

 

The impact of corporate distress along the supply chain: evidences from United
States

Lucia Gibilaro

Gianluca Mattarocci

Click to access EFMA2017_0526_fullpaper.pdf

 

 

Does credit crunch investments down?
New evidence on the real eects of the bank-lending channel

Federico Cinganoz Francesco Manaresix Enrico Settex

December 2013

Click to access Credit_crunch_investments.pdf

 

Interwoven Lending, Uncertainty, and Liquidity Hoarding

Adam Zawadowski

December 13, 2017

Click to access credit.pdf

 

 

Trade credit: Elusive insurance of rm growth

DENNIS BAMS, JAAP BOS and MAGDALENA PISA*

October 5, 2016

Click to access Trade%20credit%20Elusive%20insurance%20of%20firm%20growth%202016.pdf

 

 

Chain Reactions, Trade Credit and the Business Cycle

Miguel Cardoso-Lecourtois

Click to access up.4593.1075462930.pdf

 

From production networks to geographical economics.

Gérard Weisbuch, Stefano Battiston.

Journal ofEconomic Behavior and Organization, Elsevier, 2007, 64 (3- 4), pp.448

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00531863/document

 

 

Production networks and failure avalanches

Gerard Weisbuch
Stefano Battiston

March 5, 2018

Click to access 0507101.pdf

 

 

Self-organised patterns in production networks

Gerard Weisbuch

October 10, 2005

Click to access gwcomplexus.pdf

 

 

Networks : Propagation of Shocks over Economic Networks

Daron Acemoglu

July 22, 2014.

https://economics.mit.edu/files/9790

 

 

Debt-Rank Analysis of Financial Distress Propagation on a Production Network in Japan

FUJIWARA Yoshi
University of Hyogo
TERAI Masaaki
RIKEN
FUJITA Yuji
Turnstone Research Institute, Inc.
SOUMA Wataru
Nihon University

Click to access 16e046.pdf

 

 

Operational causes of bankruptcy propagation in supply chain

Zhongsheng Hua ⁎, Yanhong Sun 1, Xiaoyan Xu

2011

Click to access 48280.pdf

 

 

Propagation of Financial Shocks in an Input-Output Economy with Trade and Financial Linkages of Firms

Shaowen Luo
September 20, 2015

Click to access 10-02-15Luo.pdf

 

 

From Micro to Macro via Production Networks

Vasco M. Carvalho

Click to access carvalho_from_micro.pdf

 

 

Trade Credit and the  Propagation of Corporate Failure: An Empirical
Analysis

Tor Jacobson and Erik von Schedvin
August 2012

Click to access 723939764.pdf

 

CREDIT MARKET DISRUPTIONS AND LIQUIDITY SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN

Anna M. Costello

August 8, 2017

Click to access costello-anna-acctgcamp2017_0.pdf

 

Modeling defaults of companies in multi-stage supply chain networks

Kamil J.Mizgier, StephanM.Wagner,, JanuszA.Holyst

2010

Click to access Mizgier_etal_InPress_Modeling_defaults_of.pdf

 

 

 

The origins of scale-free production networks

Stanislao Gualdizand Antoine Mandelx

June 28, 2015

Click to access Gualdi.pdf

 

 

Optimization of order policies in supply networks

S. GÄottlich¤ M. Hertyy C. Ringhoferz

August 18, 2008

Click to access FRG-2008-Ringhofer-Christian.FRG_Ringhofer_Orders080814.pdf

 

Financial Instability after Minsky: Heterogeneity, Agent Based Models and Credit
Networks

Domenico Delli Gatti

April 10, 2012

Click to access delli-gatti-domenico-berlin-paper.pdf

 

Measuring the Systemic Risk in Inter firm Transaction Networks

Makoto Hazama
And
Iichiro Uesugi

Click to access wp066.pdf

 

Systemic Risk Assessment in Complex Supply Networks

Anna Ledwoch, Alexandra Brintrup, J¨orn Mehnen, Ashutosh Tiwari

Click to access Ledwoch_etal_SJ_2016_Systemic_risk_assessment_in_complex_supply_networks.pdf

 

TRADE CREDIT DEFAULTS AND LIQUIDITY PROVISION BY FIRMS

Reint Gropp
Frédéric Boissay

2007

Click to access ecbwp753.pdf

 

The future of agent-based modelling.

Matteo Richiardi

Institute for New Economic Thinking and Nuffield College, Oxford, United Kingdom
Collegio Carlo Alberto, Moncalieri, Italy

This draft: June 2015

Click to access abmfuture-v12.pdf

 

 

Financially Constrained Fluctuations in an Evolving Network Economy

Domenico Delli Gatti
Mauro Gallegati
Bruce Greenwald
Alberto Russo
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Click to access DelliGatti%28presentation%29_ABM.pdf

 

 

Credit Chains and Sectoral Comovement: Does the Use of Trade Credit Amplify Sectoral Shocks?

Claudio Raddatz

The World Bank
March, 2007

Click to access Credit_chains_051707_withtables.pdf

 

 

Linkages and spillovers in global production networks: firm-level analysis of the Czech automotive industry

Petr Pavlinek

Pavla Žížalová

https://digitalcommons.unomaha.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1039&context=geoggeolfacpub

 

Ontology of Bankruptcy Diffusion through Trade Credit
Channel

Lin Cheng

Huaiqing Wang

Huaping Chen

Click to access JRPIT44.4.401.pdf

 

OPTIMAL ORDER AND DISTRIBUTION STRATEGIES IN PRODUCTION NETWORKS

Simone Gottlich, Michael Herty, and Christian Ringhofer

Click to access SpringerOpt10.pdf

 

Profitability, Trade Credit and Institutional Structure of Production

Michael Gofman
December 9, 2013

Click to access Supplier-Customer%20Network.pdf

 

The Economics of Information and Financial
Networks

Stefano Battiston
July 22, 2016

Click to access battiston2016information.pdf

 

Supply Chain Perspectives and Issues: A Literature Review

Albert Park
Gaurav Nayyar
Patrick Low

Click to access supply-chain-perspectives-and-issues.pdf

 

 

LIAISONS DANGEREUSES: INCREASING CONNECTIVITY, RISK SHARING, AND SYSTEMIC RISK

Stefano Battiston
Domenico Delli Gatti
Mauro Gallegati
Bruce C. Greenwald
Joseph E. Stiglitz

Click to access w15611.pdf

 

 

Inter-Firm Trade Finance in Times of Crisis

Anna Maria C. Menichini

Click to access WPS5112.pdf

 

 

Reducing the Probability of Bankruptcy Through Supply Chain Coordination

Xiaoyan Xu, Yanhong Sun, and Zhongsheng Hua

2010

Click to access 573eac9d08ae298602e6e77a.pdf

 

 

Pathways towards instability in financial networks

Marco Bardoscia, Stefano Battiston Fabio Caccioli & Guido Caldarelli

2017

Click to access bardoscia2017pathways-1.pdf

 

 

International Credit Supply Shocks

Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchiy Andrea Ferreroz Alessandro Rebuccix

June 16, 2017

https://www.bostonfed.org/-/media/Documents/events/2017/boston-policy-workshop/AlessandroRebucci.pdf?la=en

 

Risk Propagation through Payment Distortion in Supply Chains

Alejandro Serrano

Rogelio Oliva

Santiago Kraiselburd

Click to access 0e6d7dc9d4b4f6bcada884b71562791404ed.pdf

 

 

Payment Defaults and Interfirm Liquidity Provision

https://academic.oup.com/rof/article-abstract/17/6/1853/1591419

 

SYSTEMIC RISK: A SURVEY

BY OLIVIER DE BANDT
AND PHILIPP HARTMANN

November 2000

Click to access ecbwp0035.pdf

 

 

Risk Propagation in Supply Chains

Alejandro Serrano

Rogelio Oliva

Santiago Kraiselburd

Click to access f3278ab2a75ff11b0142fba19a4cf223805a.pdf

 

 

How Inventory Is (Should Be) Financed: Trade Credit in Supply Chains with Demand
Uncertainty and Costs of Financial Distress

Song (Alex) Yang, John R. Birge

Click to access YangBirge_trade%20credit.pdf

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2746645

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1734682

 

 

The Supply Chain Effects of Bankruptcy

S. Alex Yang

John R. Birge, Rodney P. Parker

Click to access 86a8667f24af2c6a5cd7eb52bbd12b39697b.pdf

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.715.5812&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

Supply Chain Management: Supplier Financing Schemes and Inventory Strategies

Min Wang

Click to access Min_Wang_Dissertation.pdf

 

Foreign Investment and Supply Chains in Emerging Markets: Recurring Problems and Demonstrated Solutions

Theodore H. Moran

PIIE

2014

Click to access wp14-12.pdf

 

Improving cash flow using credit management
The outline case

Click to access cid_improving_cashflow_using_credit_mgm_Apr09.pdf.pdf

 

CREDIT CHAINS AND THE PROPAGATION OF
FINANCIAL DISTRESS

2006

by Frederic Boissay

Click to access ecbwp573.pdf

 

Exposure to international crises: trade vs. financial contagion

Everett Grant

2016

https://www.esrb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/wp/esrbwp30.en.pdf?7b7cc950c1a2286d395ed8489bfde5c7

 

 

Credit Contagion and Trade Credit Supply:
Evidence from Small Business Data in Japan

TSURUTA Daisuke

Click to access 07e043.pdf

 

 

The Price of Complexity in Financial Networks

Joseph Stiglitz

2017

Click to access The%20Price%20of%20Complexity%20in%20Financial%20Networks.pdf

 

 

The Price of Complexity in Financial Networks

S. Battiston

2017

Click to access 160913_slides_battison.pdf

 

 

 

Gantt Chart Simulation for Stock Flow Consistent Production Schedules

Gantt Chart Simulation for Stock Flow Consistent Production Schedules

 

I have knowledge of two software which do Gantt chart simulation for production scheduling.  These are used by top most companies in the world for production planning and scheduling now a days known as Supply Chain Management (SCM).

Production Schedules are stock flow consistent which means that starting inventories, and unused production of products result in cumulative inventory which is plotted for each of the product.

Production and Shipments (arrivals and dispatched) create Flows and Inventory levels indicate Stock level positions.

Gantt Chart simulators are excellent tools for operations management in plants.

The first Gantt chart was actually developed by Karol Adamiecki in Poland.  He called it a Harmonogram.  Henry Gantt in 1910 published first gantt chart which was later than publication by Karol Adamiecki.

These two charts below show Simulator window in which Gantt chart and inventory level plots are displayed.

Gantt Chart Simulator in Aspen Tech Plant Scheduler for Production Scheduling

active-guidance_10740930

 

Gantt Chart Simulator in Atlantic Decision Sciences Scheduler

Scheduling Board Single Chart

Key Sources for Research:

 

A Presentation by Chris Jones on Evolution of Graphical Production Scheduling Software

at the Cornell University Deptt of ORIE

 

 

 

Atlantic Decision Sciences

http://atlanticdecisionsciences.com

 

 

Aspen Technology

http://aspentech.com/products/aspen-plant-scheduler/

 

 

History of Gantt Chart

http://www.ganttchart.com/orgforwork.html

 

 

History of Production Scheduling

http://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9780387331157-c1.pdf?SGWID=0-0-45-321351-p148129370

 

 

The harmonogram: an overlooked method of scheduling work.

Marsh, E. R. (1976).

Project Management Quarterly, 7(1), 21–25.

https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/harmonogram-overlooked-method-scheduling-work-5666

 

The Harmonogram of Karol Adamiecki

Edward R. Marsh

http://amj.aom.org/content/18/2/358

 

Karol Adamiecki

https://www.pocketbook.co.uk/blog/tag/karol-adamiecki/

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

 

Inter Industry Trade is known as One way Trade.

Intra Industry Trade is known as Two way Trade.

 

Intra Industry Trade (IIT)

  • Can be Intra Firm or Inter Firm (Arms’ Length)
  • Can be Vertical or Horizontal (VIIT and HIIT)

Intra Industry Trade is measured using G-L Index among other indices.

Import and Export of Parts and Components (Intermediate Goods) causes measurement issues of IIT.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Intra-industry trade is defined as the simultaneous export and import of products, which belong to the same statistical product category. According to Kol and Rayment (1989), three types of bilateral trade flows may occur between countries: inter-industry trade, horizontal IIT and vertical IIT. Historically, the international trade between countries has been inter-industry form, which is described as the exchange of products belonging to different industries. Traditional trade models, such as Heckscher-Ohlin model or Ricardian model, have tried to explain this type of trade based on comparative advantage in relative technology and factor endowments. However, a significant portion of the world trade over the last three decades took the form of the intra-industry trade rather than inter-industry trade. As a result, the traditional trade models has been considered to be inadequate in explaining this new trade pattern because in these models there is no reason for developed countries to trade in similar but slightly differentiated goods.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Horizontal IIT has been defined as the exchange of similar goods that are similar in terms of quality but have different characteristics or attributes. The models developed by Dixit and Stiglitz (1977), Lancaster (1980), Krugman (1980, 1981), Helpman (1981), and Helpman and Krugman (1985) explain horizontal IIT by emphasizing the importance of economies of scale, product differentiation, and demand for variety within the setting of monopolistic competition type markets. In these models, IIT in horizontally differentiated goods should be greater, the greater the difference in income differences and relative factor endowments between the trading partners.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

In contrast, vertical IIT represents trade in similar products of different qualities but they are no longer the same in terms unit production costs and factor intensities.5 Falvey (1981) and Falvey and Kierzkowski (1987) have shown that the IIT in vertically differentiated goods occurs because of factor endowment differences across countries. In particular, Falvey and Kierzkowski (1987) suggest that the amount of capital relative to labor used in the production of vertically differentiated good indicates the quality of good. As a consequence, in an open economy, higher- quality products are produced in capital abundant countries whereas lower-quality products are produced in labor abundant countries. This will give rise to intra-industry trade in vertically differentiated goods: the capital abundant country exports higher-quality varieties and labor abundant country exports lower-quality products. The models of vertical IIT predict that the share of vertical IIT will increase as countries’ income and factor endowments diverge.

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Various ways of calculating intra-industry trade have been proposed in the empirical literature, including the Balassa Index, the Grubel-Lloyd (G-L) index, the Aquino index. The most widely used method for computing the IIT is developed by Grubel and Lloyd (1971). However, beside aggregation bias, the traditional G-L index has one major problem often cited in the empirical literature. The unadjusted G-L index is negatively correlated with a large overall trade imbalance. With national trade balances, the level of IIT in a country will be clearly underestimated. To avoid this problem, Grubel and Lloyd (1975) proposed another method to adjust the index by using the relative size of exports and imports of a particular good within an industry as weights.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

iit

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

IIT2IIT3IIT4

 

From:  World Trade Flows Characterization: Unit Values, Trade Types and Price Ranges

 

IIT5

 

 

Key Terms:

  • Intra Industry Trade
  • Inter Industry Trade
  • Horizontal IIT
  • Vertical IIT
  • Ricardo’s Theory of Comparative Advantage
  • Factor Inputs
  • Factor Endowments
  • Factor Prices
  • Heckscher-Ohlin Model of Trade
  • Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
  • Grubel – Lloyd Index
  • Fontagné and Freudenberg index (FF)
  • New Economic Geography (NEG)
  • Spatial Economy
  • UN COMTRADE
  • SITC Codes
  • Balassa Index
  • Acquino Index
  • Bilateral Trade Flows

 

Please see my related posts:

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

Relational Turn in Economic Geography

Understanding Global Value Chains – G20/OECD/WB Initiative

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia:  Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications

Fukunari Kimura

2006

Click to access e2007-11b.pdf

 

 

 

The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia

 

Mitsuyo Ando and Fukunari Kimura

 

Click to access c0194.pdf

 

 

“The mechanics of production networks in Southeast Asia: the fragmentation theory approach”

Fukunari Kimura

July 2007

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.600.7481&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

“Fragmentation in East Asia: Further Evidence”

May 2006

Mitsuyo Ando

Fukunari Kimura

Click to access Articolo%204.pdf

 

 

 

Modern International Production and Distribution Networks: the Role of Global Value Chains

Fukunari Kimura

2016

Click to access presentation_fukunari_kimura.pdf

 

 

 

Two-dimensional Fragmentation in East Asia: Conceptual Framework and Empirics

Fukunari Kimura and Mitsuyo Ando

Click to access 046.pdf

 

 

 

Deepening and Widening of Production Networks in ASEAN

Ayako Obashi

Fukunari Kimura

2016

Click to access ERIA-DP-2016-09.pdf

 

Global production sharing and trade patterns in East Asia

Prema-chandra Athukorala

June 2013

Click to access TU_VIROT,%20Ali_Reading2_Global%20Production%20Sharing%20and%20Trade%20Patterns%20in%20East%20Asia.pdf

 

 

 

PRODUCTION SHARING IN EAST ASIA: CHINA’S POSITION, TRADE PATTERN AND TECHNOLOGY UPGRADING

Laike Yang

Click to access gdsmdp20152yang_en.pdf

 

 

 

 

International Production Networks:  Contributions of Economics to Policy Making

Fukunari Kimura

2016

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/internationaleconomy/19/0/19_ie2016.03.fk/_pdf

 

 

 

 

Production networks in East Asia: What we know so far

Fukunari Kimura and Ayako Obashi

No. 320
November 2011

Click to access 67543923X.pdf

 

Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Kemal Turkcan and Aysegul Ates

2010

 

Click to access JIGES%20DECEMBER%202009%20TURKCAN%203-10-2010%20Turkcan_Ates_JIGES.pdf

 

 

 

Vertical Intra-Industry Trade: An Empirical Examination of the U.S. Auto-Parts Industry

Kemal TÜRKCAN and Ayşegül ATEŞ

(This version October 2008)

 

Click to access Turkcan.pdf

 

 

 

Intra-industry trade, fragmentation and export margins: An empirical examination of sub-regional international trade

Yushi Yoshida

 

https://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=501284

 

 

A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis

WTO

Click to access wto_unctad12_e.pdf

 

 

 

Intra-Industry Trade between Japan and European Countries: a Closer Look at the Quality Gap in VIIT

Yushi Yoshida, Nuno Carlos Leitão and Horácio Faustino

Click to access wp532008.pdf

 

 

Evolving pattern of intra-industry trade specialization of the new Member States (NMS) of the EU: the case of automotive industry

Elżbieta Kawecka-Wyrzykowska

2008

 

Click to access publication14289_en.pdf

 

 

VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND NAFTA PARTNERS

2009

 

Click to access art02.pdf

 

 

 

Globalizing Production Structure and Intra-Industry Trade: The Case of Turkey

Emine Kılavuz

Hatice Erkekoğlu

Betül Altay Topcu

2013

https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/viewFile/563/pdf

 

 

 

On the Measurement of Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade: A Geometric Exposition

A.K.M. Azhar Robert J.R. Elliott

http://www.ibrarian.net/navon/paper/On_the_Measurement_of_Vertical_and_Horizontal_Int.pdf?paperid=1018522

 

 

 

 Determinants of United States’ Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade

2013

 

https://espace.curtin.edu.au/bitstream/handle/20.500.11937/41590/197560_110710_GEJ_2013.pdf?sequence=2

 

 

 

World Trade Flows Characterization: Unit Values, Trade Types and Price Ranges

Charlotte Emlinger & Sophie Piton

2014

Click to access wp2014-26.pdf

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

 

Multiple Perspectives on production and distribution planning

  • Plant and Distribution Center Location problem – Strategic – Structural and Design
  • Procurement problem – where to source from – Tactical – Allocation, Assignment
  • Production and Distribution Scheduling – Operational  – Managing Flows
  • Multi Echelon Inventory Management- Operational – Managing Stocks
  • Supply Chain Integration, Collaboration, Coordination – Hierarchical Planning

Normally, production and distribution planning are handled separately in firms.  Integrated planning of production and distribution can add significant value to a company, particularly, in strategic decisions.

 

From Facility Location and Supply Chain Management – A comprehensive review

Since, in the literature, model objectives change as a function of the planning horizon length, we consider it opportune to define the features of each horizon in order to contextualize the parameters chosen for the models’ comparison. According to [14], the planning horizons of the supply chain can be clustered as follows:
Strategic planning: this level refers to a long-term horizon (3-5 years) and has the objective of identifying strategic decisions for a production network and defining the optimal configuration of a supply chain. The decisions involved in this kind of
planning include vertical integration policies, capacity sizing, technology selection, sourcing, facility location, production allocation and transfer pricing policies.
Tactical planning: this level refers to a mid-term horizon (1-2 years) and has the objective of fulfilling demand and managing material flows, with a strong focus on the trade-off between the service level and cost reduction. The main aspects considered in tactical planning include production allocation, supply chain coordination, transportation policies, inventory policies, safety stock sizing and supply chain lead time reduction.
Operational planning: this level refers to a short term period (1 day to 1 year) and has the objective of determining material/logistic requirement planning. The decisions involved in programming include the allocation of customer demands, vehicle routing, and plant and warehouse scheduling.

 

From

pdp2

 

 

From  Integrated Location-Production-Distribution Planning in a
Multi products Supply Chain Network Design Model

pdp

 

Key words:

  • ‘supply chain strategic design’,
  • ‘supply chain planning’,
  • ‘supply chain optimization’,
  • ‘supply chain network design’,
  • ‘supply chain production planning’,
  • ‘supply chain delocalization’,
  • ‘logistic network design’,
  • ‘facility location’,
  • ‘distribution network design’,
  • ‘production-distribution systems’,
  • ‘location-allocation problem’,
  • ‘supply chain linear programming’
  • ‘supply chain mixed-integer programming’.

From  From Manufacturing to Distribution: The Evolution of ERP in Our New Global Economy

Over the past fifty years, manufacturing has changed from individual companies producing and distributing their own products, to a global network of suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors. Efficiency, price, and quality are being scrutinized in the production of each product. Because of this global network, manufacturers are competing on a worldwide scale, and they have moved their production to countries where the costs of labor and capital are low in order to gain the advantages they need to compete.

Today, the complex manufacturing environment faces many challenges. Many products are manufactured in environments where supplies come from different parts of the world. The components to be used in supply chain manufacturing are transported across the globe to different manufacturers, distributors, and third party logistics (3PL) providers. The challenges for many manufacturers have become how to track supply chain costs and how to deal with manufacturing costs throughout the production of goods. Software vendors, however, are now addressing these manufacturing challenges by developing new applications.

Global competition has played a key role in industrialized countries shifting from being production-oriented economies to service-based economies. Manufacturers in North America, Western Europe, and other industrialized nations have adapted to the shift by redesigning their manufacturing production into a distribution and logistics industry, and the skills of the labor force have changed to reflect this transition. Developing countries have similarly changed their manufacturing production environments to reflect current demands; they are accommodating the production of goods in industries where manufacturers have chosen to move their production offshore–the textile industry being a prime example of this move.

A report from the US Census Bureau titled Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2005 and another from Statistics Canada titled Wholesale Trade: The Year 2006 in Review indicate that wholesalers are changing their business models to become distributors as opposed to manufacturers. Between 2002 and 2005, overall labor and capital in the manufacturing sectors decreased substantially. US industry data (from about 10 years ago) indicates that the North American manufacturing industry was engaged in 80 percent manufacturing processes and only 20 percent distribution activities. Today, however, these percentages have changed dramatically; the current trend is in the opposite direction. Manufacturing processes account for around 30 percent of the industry processes, and wholesale and distribution activities, approximately 70 percent.

In addition, a report from the National Association of Manufacturers indicates that the US economy imports $1.3 trillion (USD) worth of manufactured goods, but exports only $806 billion (USD) worth of goods manufactured in the US. This negative trade balance is a clear indication of the changing economic trend toward the manufacturing of goods in low-cost labor nations.

The main reason for this huge manufacturing shift is the increasing operating costs of production in industrialized countries. These rising costs are forcing manufacturers to move their production to developing nations because of the low cost of labor in these countries. This includes Asian countries (such as China and Indonesia) as well as Eastern European countries (such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia).

The number of workers (in percentages) in specified industries in G7 countries, and uses 1980 as the base year with 100 percent full employment in each industry. The industries with relatively constant rates of employment are the food and drink and the tobacco industries. Since 1995, all other industries have been maintaining less and less manufacturing employees, as indicated by the declining slopes in the graph. The shift in the textiles and leather, metals, and other manufacturing industries is moving toward production of goods in low-wage, developing countries.

Manufacturing is a global industry, and although a manufacturing company may be based in an industrialized country, it may have the bulk of its manufacturing facilities in a developing country. Producing goods in such a country reduces wage and capital costs for the manufacturer; however, some manufacturing control is lost in offshore production. Shipping, distribution, and rental costs, for example, are often difficult to track and manage, and quality control can be compromised in a production environment that is not local.

Two main outcomes can be seen within the manufacturing industry because of this manufacturing shift: manufacturers have a sense of having relinquished control of their production to low-cost labor nations, and supply chain management (SCM) has now become the answer to manufacturing within industrialized nations.

Suppliers that provide components to manufacturers often have issues with quality. Being part of a large network of suppliers, each supplier tries to offer the lowest prices for its products when bidding to manufacturers. Although a supplier may win the bid, its products may not be up to standard, and this can lead to the production of faulty goods. Therefore, when using offshore suppliers, quality issues, product auditing, and supplier auditing become extremely important.

Because the manufacturing model is changing, manufacturing has become more of a service-based industry than a pure manufacturing industry. Even though the physical process of manufacturing hasn’t changed, the actual locations of where the goods are being produced have. This fact is now compelling industrialized countries to engage in more assembly driven activities–a service-based model. The manufacturing process has transformed into obtaining parts and reassembling them into the final product. The final product is then redistributed throughout the appropriate channel or to the consumer. SCM methods are now reacting to this change as well; they are taking into account final assembly needs, and they are distributing particular products to consumers or manufacturers.

SCM is becoming the norm for manufacturers in the industrialized world. Offshoring is now standard practice, and methods such as SCM have been set up to deal with these economic and logistical business realities.

The economic shift happening in both industrialized and developing countries is dramatic. As the level of management knowledge increases, better methods of constructing offshore products are available in SCM solutions. In both types of economies, the changes in the labor force skill sets and manufacturing environments have consequently led to new software solutions being developed in order to manage this dramatic change.

Within the software industry, many SCM and enterprise resource-planning (ERP) vendors are following the economic shift. They are developing new functionality–ERP-distribution software–to meet the recent demands and needs of the changing manufacturing and distribution industries.

SCM and ERP software are converging to better address these new demands in the manufacturing industry. In the enterprise software market, ERP software vendors have reached a point of saturation; their installs are slowing down and they are seeing a reduction in sales. Therefore, ERP providers are developing new functionality in order to remain competitive with other ERP vendors, in addition to looking for new opportunities. ERP vendors are trying to adapt to the changing market in order to increase their revenues. They are integrating SCM functionality into their ERP offerings, creating ERP-distribution software that can span the entire production process across many continents (if necessary), and that is able to track final goods, components, and materials.

Traditional ERP solutions included some SCM functionality, which was needed to distribute the companies’ produced goods. These systems also allowed components and parts to be imported in order to assemble these goods. But offshore manufacturing and expansion into new markets has required SCM functionality in ERP software to be extended. Some larger vendors have acquired other companies in order to meet these changing demands. For example, Oracle acquired G-Log, a transportation management systems (TMS) vendor, and Agile, a product lifecycle management (PLM) vendor; and Activant acquired Intuit Eclipse.

SCM software vendors, in contrast, have felt encroached upon by ERP vendors. The situation has posed a real threat to SCM providers in the market, forcing them to extend their ERP functionality to compete with ERP vendors and to try to gain new clients in the distribution and logistics industry.

ERP-distribution software has integrated SCM functionality into its existing functionality to navigate through the complex global manufacturing environment. SCM software maps five processes into one solution: planning, sourcing (obtaining materials), producing, delivering, and returning final products if defective. These processes help to track and manage the goods throughout their entire life cycles. In addition, ERP solutions are used to manage the entire operations of an organization, not only a product’s life cycle. This gives users the broad capability to manage operations and use the SCM functionality to manage the movement of goods, whether components or finished product.

With the ability to gain accurate inventory visibility and SCM production, ERP-distribution software is able to see the whole chain of manufacturing and distribution events, from supplier to manufacturer, all the way to the final consumer.

There are three business models.

  • The first is the SCM model, which includes the manufacturing process.
  • The second is the retail model, which is the distribution of final products to the consumer, business, or retailer.
  • The third model is a combination of the first two business models, joined by the ERP-distribution software solution into one seamless process.

Within the SCM process, goods can either be brought in (imported) through foreign manufacturers, or acquired locally. The goods are then given to a distributor, 3PL provider, or wholesaler in order to reach the final client.

Within the retail model, the products are taken from a distributor, 3PL provider, or wholesaler, and are distributed to the appropriate person. Note that there is a “shift” for the consumer. This is to indicate that through the Internet or other forms of technology, consumers are now able to buy directly from distributors. The power of the consumer has changed; where manufacturers once provided products to consumers, consumers are now creating demand, and manufacturers have to meet that demand.

SCM solutions focus on the relationship between the supplier and manufacturer. However, ERP- distribution software has taken functionality from SCM software and combined it with retail software (such as point-of-sale and e-commerce solutions); it is now able to span across the entire supply chain and to track goods along the complete manufacturing process.

This is a simplified view of the complexities of today’s manufacturing processes. These complexities have made it crucial for trading partners to unite with manufacturers in order to help alleviate the frustrations that can occur within this global network. Specifically, trading partners are coming together with manufacturers to unite services, products, and customer experience so that business processes (such as manufacturing and distribution) become more efficient and that goods can move through these processes with minimal problems.

SCM can be thought of as the management of “warehousing processes,” in which the movement of goods occurs through multiple warehouses or manufacturing facilities. Tracking the costs of moving products and components through the maze of warehousing and manufacturing facilities is a tricky process, and many organizations lose money at each warehousing step.

Within the flow of goods in the manufacturing sector, the warehouse is a crucial part of the supply chain. Traditionally, the warehouse has been a source of frustration because the manufacturer or supplier pays for the use of the warehouse (whether owned or rented by the company). This leads to two possible scenarios: 1) the costs of the warehouse are incurred by a 3PL or manufacturing company, or 2) the costs are passed from one warehouse to another warehouse, and the original warehouse charges for these costs.

The typical warehouse process includes the following steps: receiving, put away, picking, kitting, packing, repacking, cross-docking, and shipping. ERP-distribution software is able to track costs across the entire organization and to aid companies in reducing costs that were previously tough to track.

ERP-distribution system encompasses the entire production of the final good. The ERP- distribution system is able to include inventory visibility from points “A to Z” (start to finish) and to track each warehouse cost from supplier to manufacturer to user, whether consumer, business, or retailer.

The Final Word: ERP-distribution software has been developed to meet the growing needs of the manufacturing and distribution industries. The capabilities incorporated into the software work across entire organizations, and even across continents.

Because of the economic shift in the manufacturing industry, the emergence of new software has been vital for businesses to stay competitive, meet the industry demands and emerging shift, and to keep business processes efficient to gain better profit margins.

ERP-distribution software is able to track the processes of manufacturing goods and distributing components, even if the manufacturer has facilities in North America and the Far East. With the SCM component in ERP software, manufacturing and tracking goods becomes manageable. Distributors and manufacturers can now work together in order to better meet customer requirements.

In addition of factors for domestic location selection analysis, other factors in international location selection are:

  • Exchange Rates
  • Taxes and Tariffs
  • Transfer Prices

How do companies in Computers, Automotive, Apparel, Electronics, Consumer Goods, Machinery manage their supply chain planning functions?  What software do they use for forecasting, planning, and scheduling?

I know of these software solutions for Network Design and Optimization:

Key Sources of Research:

 

Combined Strategic and Operational Planning – An MILP Success Story in Chemical Industry

Josef Kallrath

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.506.4194&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Planning in the Process Industry

Josef Kallrath

Click to access kallrath2008d.pdf

 

Solving Planning and Design Problems in the Process Industry Using Mixed Integer and Global Optimization

Josef Kallrath

Click to access kallr05a.pdf

 

 

Mathematical Programming Models and Formulations for Deterministic Production
Planning Problems

Yves Pochet

Click to access Pochet.pdf

 

Supply Network Planning and Plant Scheduling in the Chemical-Pharmaceutical Industry – A Case Study Investigation

Gang Yang, Martin Grunow and Hans-Otto Guenther

Click to access SNPandPSinCPI2003.pdf

 

 

Advanced Planning and Scheduling Solutions in Process Industry

Editors: Günther, Hans-Otto, van Beek, Paul (Eds.)

http://www.springer.com/la/book/9783540002222

 

Advanced Planning and Scheduling in Manufacturing and Supply Chains

Authors: Mauergauz, Yuri

http://www.springer.com/la/book/9783319275215

 

 

Centralised supply chain master planning employing advanced planning systems

Martin Rudberga* and Jim Thulin

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.177.7313&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Planning and Scheduling in Supply Chains: An Overview of Issues in Practice

Stephan Kreipl • Michael Pinedo

Click to access 2004-01-Kreipl.pdf

 

 

Sales and operations planning in the process industry

Sayeh Noroozi

Joakim Wikner

Click to access Salesandoperationsplanningintheprocessindustry.pdf

 

 

Optimal planning in large multi-site production networks

Christian H. Timpe, Josef Kallrath

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.565.6621&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Mixed Integer Optimization in the Chemical Process Industry –
Experience, Potential and Future Perspectives

Josef Kallrath

Click to access kall00c.pdf

 

Planning and scheduling in the process industry

Josef Kallrath

2002

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/79f2/bba952f67315ccfd639ce874f966b02d1c18.pdf?_ga=2.18515577.1763587969.1506656275-754417939.1465928807

 

Modeling and design of global logistics systems: A review of integrated strategic and tactical models and design algorithms

Marc Goetschalckx  Carlos J.Vidal, Koray Dogan

Click to access 09e4150b3dc45e40ef000000.pdf

 

 

Strategic Analysis of Integrated Production- Distribution Systems: Models and Methods

Morris Cohen and H Lee

1988

Click to access 554578ab0cf23ff71686afbc.pdf

 

 

Integrated production/distribution planning in supply chains: An invited review

Sß. Selcßuk Erengucß a, N.C. Simpson b, Asoo J. Vakharia

1999

Click to access 1999_EJOR.pdf

 

 

A Review of Integrated Analysis of Production-Distribution Systems

Ana Maria Sarmiento, Rakesh Nagi

1999

Click to access ana.pdf

 

Managing Perishability in Production-Distribution Planning: a discussion and review

P. Amorim H. Meyr C. Almeder
B. Almada-Lobo

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.475.3138&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Input-Output Analysis For Multi-location Supply Chain Management Control:
A Theoretic Model

Wang Lu, Tong Rencheng

Click to access Wang-274.pdf

 

 

Using Operational Research for Supply Chain Planning in the Forest
Products Industry

Sophie D’Amours

Mikael Ro¨nnqvist

Andres Weintraub

http://repositorio.uchile.cl/bitstream/handle/2250/125029/DâAmours_Sophie.pdf?sequence=1

 

 

Mathematical programming models for supply chain production and
transport planning

Josefa Mula *, David Peidro, Manuel Díaz-Madroñero, Eduardo Vicens

2010

Click to access 83f7e2405a9539c86dd593f5bb064f2695d5.pdf

 

 

Formation of a strategic manufacturing and distribution network
with transfer prices

Renato de Mattaa, Tan Millerb

Click to access 28a955be33b7a19b2077402d5b3b9cca1151.pdf

 

 

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF TRANSFER PRICING ON THE CONFIGURATION
AND PROFIT OF AN INTERNATIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN: PERSPECTIVES FROM
TWO REAL CASES

Marc Goetschalckx, Carlos J. Vidal and Javier I. Hernández

Click to access arq0310.pdf

 

 

Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging
under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

Achim Koberstein,
Elmar Lukas,
Marc Naumann

Click to access 10.1007%2FBF03342750.pdf

 

 

 

The Design of Robust Value Creating Supply Chain Networks:  A Critical Review

Click to access CIRRELT-2008-36.pdf

 

 

 

 

Global supply chain design: A literature review and critique.

Meixell, M. J. and Gargeya, V. B.

(2005).

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 41(6): 531-550.

Click to access V_Gargeya_Global_2005.pdf

 

 

 

A strategic model for exact supply chain network design and its application to a global manufacturer

C. Arampantzi, I. Minis, G. Dikas

Click to access DeOPSys_Lab_Report_SSCND_2016-5.pdf

 

 

Sequential Vs Integrated Optimization:  Production, Location, Inventory Control and Distribution

July 2017

Click to access CIRRELT-2017-39.pdf

 

 

Measuring Cost Efficiency in an Integrated Model of Production
and Distribution: A Nonparametric Approach

Subhash C. Ray

2011

Click to access 2011-04.pdf

 

 

Optimization/simulation modeling of the integrated production- distribution plan: an innovative survey

BEHNAM FAHIMNIA, LEE LUONG, ROMEO MARIAN

2008

 

Click to access 30-587.pdf

Click to access Optimization-simulation-modeling-of-the-integrated-production-distribution-plan-An-innovative-survey.pdf

 

 

Strategic Planning and Design of Supply Chains: a Literature Review

Alessandro Lambiase, Ernesto Mastrocinque, Salvatore Miranda and Alfredo Lambiase

2013

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.5772/56858

 

 

The design of production-distribution networks: A mathematical programming approach

Alain Martel

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226891333_The_Design_of_Production-Distribution_Networks_A_Mathematical_Programming_Approach

 

 

Process industry supply chains: Advances and challenges

Nilay Shah

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.114.4553&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Strategic, Tactical and Operational Decisions in Multi-national Logistics Networks:
A Review and Discussion of Modeling Issues

Gunter Schmidt
and
Wilbert E. Wilhelm

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=5BA6B353BBCA48D0859B902AC3F2610D?doi=10.1.1.25.4951&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Strategic production-distribution models: A critical review with emphasis on global supply chain models

 

 

Dynamics of Global Supply Chain Supernetworks

A. NAGURNEY, J. CRUZ AND D. MATSYPURA

(Received and accepted November 2002)

 

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0895717703001122/1-s2.0-S0895717703001122-main.pdf?_tid=f781c478-a79f-11e7-b471-00000aab0f6c&acdnat=1506969295_6d30c9e8a854b9cc1ec23a57d00143d0

 

 

Integrated production/distribution planning in the supply chain: the Febal case study

Fabio Nonino

 

 

Integrated supply chain planning under uncertainty using an improved stochastic approach

Hadi Mohammadi Bidhandi a,⇑, Rosnah Mohd Yusuff

 

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0307904X1000452X/1-s2.0-S0307904X1000452X-main.pdf?_tid=49ede574-a7a1-11e7-87fa-00000aacb360&acdnat=1506969863_699a0bd5cc6d414ed2f1caebcdda820f

 

 

Optimizing the Supply Chain of a Petrochemical Company under Uncertain Operating and Economic Conditions

Haitham M. S. Lababidi,*,† Mohamed A. Ahmed,‡ Imad M. Alatiqi,† and Adel F. Al-Enzi§

Click to access 5620c42208ae93a5c9244ea5.pdf

 

 

A strategic model for exact supply chain network design and its application to a global manufacturer

C. Arampantzi, I. Minis, G. Dikas

Click to access DeOPSys_Lab_Report_SSCND_2016-5.pdf

 

 

Sequential versus Integrated Optimization: Lot Sizing, Inventory Control and Distribution

Maryam Darvish*, Leandro C. Coelho

Click to access CIRRELT-2017-39.pdf

 

 

A MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE ON SUPPLY CHAIN INTEGRATION

Samuel H. Huang, Ge Wang

John P. Dismukes

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.41.1852&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

A review and critique on integrated production–distribution planning models and techniques

Economics of Trade Finance

Economics of Trade Finance

 

Matrix of trade finance instruments

  • Raising working capital for exports: Debt financing; Asset-based financing; Export factoring; and Leasing
  • Facilitating payments: Cash-in-advance; Letter of Credit(L/C); Documentary collection; and Open accounts
  • Mitigating risks: Export credit guarantee; Export credit insurance; Forfeiting; and Hedging.

 

Trade Finance is the lubricant in Global Trade.  The concentration of banks providing Trade Finance is very high.  So are the risks if a bank fails or withdraws credit due to regulations.

Questions:

  • How many Banks provide Trade Finance?
  • What happens when Banks withdraw credit due to Financial Crisis?
  • What other alternatives are there for Trade Finance ?  GTLP?
  • What is the role of increased regulations on Trade Finance? BASEL III

 

From Trade finance around the world

tradefin2tradefin3

 

Decline in Trade Finance as a cause of Global Trade Collapse

  • Concentration of Banks providing Trade Finance
  • De-risking by EU Banks to EMEs due to BASEL III requirement
  • Backlash against Trade

 

From DE-RISKING BY BANKS IN EMERGING MARKETS – EFFECTS AND RESPONSES FOR TRADE / IFC EMCOMPASS

Emerging evidence suggests that de-risking is a reality. Increased capital requirements, coupled with rising Know-Your-Customer, Anti-Money-Laundering, and Combating-the-Financing-of-Terrorism compliance costs have resulted in the exit of several global banks from cross-border relationships with many emerging market clients and markets, particularly in the correspondent banking business. A subset of this business, trade finance, is also at risk, with potential consequences for segments of emerging market trade. The emerging market trade finance gap was significant before the crisis and has since likely expanded. Those involved in addressing the de-risking challenge must focus on compliance consistency and effective adaptation of technological innovations.

 

From ADB 2016 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey

  • The estimated global trade finance gap is $1.6 trillion.
  • $692 billion of the gap is in developing Asia (including India and the People’s Republic of China).
  • 56% of SME trade finance proposals are rejected, while large corporates face rejection rates of 34% and multinational corporations are rejected only 10% of the time.
  • Firms report that 25% more trade finance would enable them to hire 20% more people.
  • Woman-owned firms face higher than average rejection rates.
  • 70% of surveyed firms are unfamiliar with digital finance, uptake rates highest in peer-to-peer lending.

 

From ADDRESSING THE GLOBAL SHORTAGE OF TRADE FINANCE

The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) 2016 Global Survey on Trade Finance reveals that 61 percent of respondents cited a global shortage of trade finance—a figure that is particularly concerning as we continue to observe a period of prolonged sluggishness when it comes to global trade growth. But hope is not lost. Doina Buruiana, Project Manager at ICC Banking Commission, explains the various ways that the trade-finance gap can be filled.

For the fifth consecutive year, trade growth has been reported at below 3 percent and has not recovered to pre-crisis levels—with a global trade-finance shortage estimated to have reached US$1.6 trillion in 2016, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). Such figures certainly make for grim reading. And what’s more, the findings from the International Chamber of Commerce’s (ICC) 2016 Global Survey on Trade Finance—an annual report reflecting the issues and trends on the trade-finance landscape—are also providing cause for concern. Sixty-one percent of respondents—national, regional and global banks providing trade finance—reported a global shortage of trade finance.

There are various reasons for this. Ninety percent cited the cost or complexity of compliance requirements relating to anti-money laundering (AML), know your customer (KYC) and sanctions as a chief barrier to the provision of trade finance. Furthermore, 77 percent of respondents to the Global Survey cited Basel III regulatory requirements as a significant impediment to trade finance. Many global banks are withdrawing from several emerging-market regions dependent on trade and trade finance, partly due to pressures to favour domestic clients following some banks’ bailouts by taxpayers.

And the fallout can be severe. A shortage of trade finance impacts the growth of businesses worldwide. In particular, small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are being affected by the shortage of bank liquidity. According to the Global Survey, 58 percent of rejected trade-finance proposals were SME applications, despite the sector submitting 44 percent of all trade-finance proposals.

Yet hope is not lost. There are various ways in which the industry can adapt to not only bridge the gap in unmet demand for finance and help revive global growth, but also to evolve the industry, to drive healthy competition and to remove the focus from being global-bank dependent.

Backlash against trade

Improving understanding and attitudes toward trade, and awareness around trade finance, would be a good place to start. Across the world, many have attacked trade and globalisation for threatening jobs and benefitting only big businesses—sentiments that have been evident across the European Union (EU) during Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations, and also during the recent US presidential election campaigns.

Indeed, we’ve seen a clear rise in protectionist and populist policies—a recent World Trade Organization (WTO) report cited that between mid-October 2015 and mid-May 2016, G20 economies had introduced new protectionist trade measures at the fastest pace since 2008. To address this, we need to first make the case for trade itself in order to highlight the importance of trade finance. It is therefore crucial that businesses and trade-finance industry stakeholders reinvigorate the narrative around global trade, relaying its significance to the public and ensuring that trade is on the agenda of policymakers worldwide.

Understanding trade finance.

Next, enhancing awareness around trade finance should also remain a top priority. While there has already been significant progress in the dialogue between trade-finance practitioners and regulators, and a noticeable shift towards a more suitable risk-aligned treatment of trade finance, it is crucial that we continue to emphasise the low risk nature of trade-finance instruments.

Indeed, ICC’s 2015 Trade Register report highlights the low risk nature of trade-finance products—with favourable credit and default-risk experience. For instance, the Trade Register shows that there is a low default rate across all short-term trade-finance products, with the average expected loss for short-term trade finance lower than typical corporate exposures. In particular, traditional documentary trade-finance products such as letters of credit (LC) are low risk. Remarkably, the transaction default rate for export LCs between 2008 and 2014 was 0.01 percent. Medium- to long-term products also fare well, with a low loss nature due to the export credit agency’s (ECA) guarantee—normally with investment-grade ratings and backed by high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) governments.

The need for increased awareness around trade finance extends well beyond traditional trade finance and also includes newer techniques and instruments under the supply-chain finance umbrella. We also need to raise industry understanding around compliance measures—differentiating between client KYC and non-client KYC, for instance, in order to ease processes. In addition, enhanced awareness and understanding in relatively unsettled areas in trade finance, such as trade-based money laundering, would help direct compliance measures. Despite common belief, for instance, only a small proportion of trade-based money laundering actually occurs in trade-finance transactions.

Collaboration

Yet while progress has certainly been made with regulation and compliance proposals, the Global Survey suggests that the costs associated with such measures are still, and will perhaps continue to be, prohibitive. As such, if we want to close the trade-finance gap, we need to move slightly away from a global bank-dominated financial landscape and embrace collaboration.

Financial-technology firms (fintechs) are increasingly shaping the future of trade finance, and make an obvious banking partner, with both parties bringing strengths and expertise to such arrangements. Indeed, many fintechs are looking to partner with—rather than compete with—banks due to balance-sheet requirements, the regulatory framework to navigate, and the industry expertise required to bring new concepts to fruition. Certainly, partnerships between the two players could drive additional efficiencies and the capacity of banks to conduct business—perhaps eventually reducing the trade-finance shortage.

Fintechs aren’t the only players that could potentially collaborate with banks—or even fill the trade-finance gap independently. The Global Survey found that export credit agencies (ECAs) are increasingly supporting export finance, with alternative liquidity flowing into the ECA space. Thirty-seven percent of respondents reported that they had successfully concluded business with institutional investors in ECA finance, up from 30 percent in the previous survey in 2015, reflective of the growing role of alternative investors.

The Global Survey also highlighted the important role of multilateral development banks (MDBs), with 75 percent of respondents agreeing that MDBs (and ECAs) help reduce trade-finance gaps. In particular, MDBs provide financial assistance to emerging markets for investment projects and policy-based loans. This can prove crucial for enabling access to trade finance in general, and for SMEs.

The ADB’s Trade Finance Program (TFP), for instance, fills market gaps for trade finance by providing guarantees and loans through more than 200 banks. The TFP has supported more than 12,000 transactions across Asia, valued at over US$23.1 billion—of which more than 7,700 involved SMEs. What’s more, the TFP focuses on markets in which the private sector has less capacity to provide trade finance, and where there are large trade-finance gaps.

However, the Global Survey also indicated that MDB and ECA support varies by region—with respondents deeming it most effective in advanced Asia, Russia and sub-Saharan Africa, and less effective in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries, India and Central America and the Caribbean. Clearly, an increase in the envelope and effectiveness of MDB trade-finance provision in these regions will help further reduce the gap. In order to counter geographical disparities, the next step for MDBs is to consider any structural limitations in existing trade-finance programmes—or contextual difficulties in particular markets.

Finally, non-bank capital provides another useful source of trade finance, particularly from private-sector sources of finance—such as specialist financiers or alternative-finance providers. Since the financial crisis, these players have played an increasingly crucial role in meeting unmet demand, and have experienced considerable growth. What’s more, specialist financing is growing increasingly popular among companies in emerging markets, in which trade-finance demand is most acute.

Revamping trade finance.

Of course, one way to possibly boost the provision of trade finance is to make it more efficient and attractive. Certainly, the digitisation of trade finance holds huge potential. Automating trade finance can make overall processes more effective and reliable, increasing capacity for banks, corporates and other stakeholders along the supply chain. For instance, eDocs (paperless documents) streamline processes, with the ability for multiple parties to access, review and collaborate at any one time. The resulting operational improvements in turn reduce errors, maintain data integrity and accelerate the completion of agreements.

Despite the clear benefits, the Global Survey shows that there has been a slow uptake of digitisation. In fact, one-fifth of respondents reported that there is no evident digitisation at all, two-thirds saw very little impact of technology on trade finance, and just over 7 percent saw digitisation as being widespread. The slow uptake is likely due to the challenges of digitising trade—including the considerable scale and complexity of the task at hand, for instance. Banks should play a key role in advocating the benefits of digitisation and help their corporate clients adapt to new systems.

We cannot let the trade-finance gap incapacitate trade. Clearly, there are steps that the trade-finance industry can take to help meet unmet demand. Looking ahead, improving attitudes and raising understanding, encouraging collaboration and making progress towards innovation in the industry will support the growth of businesses of all sizes—and the economy—worldwide.

 

From Global Trade Liquidity Program /IFC

The Global Trade Liquidity Program (GTLP) is a unique, coordinated global initiative that brings together governments, development finance institutions (DFIs), and private sector banks to support trade in developing markets and address the shortage of trade finance resulting from the global financial crisis.

With targeted commitments of $4 billion from public sector sources, the program has supported nearly $20 billion of trade since its inception. It raises funds from international finance and development institutions, governments, and banks, and it works through global and regional banks to extend trade finance to importers and exporters in developing countries. IFC’s commitment to the program is $1 billion.

GTLP began its operations in May 2009, channeling much-needed funds to back trade in developing countries. Phase 2 was launched in January 2010 with an unfunded solution, based on the existing GTLP platform, to support trade finance directed at the food and agribusiness sectors. The program was extended in January 2012 to continue to stabilize and foster trade and commodity finance to emerging markets.

Since its launch, GTLP has been acknowledged in the financial industry as an innovative structure to help infuse much needed liquidity into the trade finance market, thereby catalyzing global trade growth. The solution also represents a win-win proposition: for the banks it provides an opportunity to continue supporting clients through these difficult times; for IFC and its partners, it affords the ability to channel liquidity and credit into markets to help revitalize trade flows by leveraging on the banks’ vast networks across emerging markets in Asia, Africa, Middle East, Europe, and Latin America.

The program is already benefiting thousands of importers and exporters and small- and medium-sized enterprises.

 

From ADB Trade Finance Program

ADB’s Trade Finance Program (TFP) fills market gaps for trade finance by providing guarantees and loans to banks to support trade.

Backed by its AAA credit rating, ADB’s TFP works with over 200 partner banks to provide companies with the financial support they need to engage in import and export activities in Asia’s most challenging markets. With dedicated trade finance specialists and a response time of 24 hours, the TFP has established itself as a key player in the international trade community, providing fast, reliable, and responsive trade finance support to fill market gaps.

A substantial portion of TFP’s portfolio supports small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and many transactions occur either intra-regionally or between ADB’s developing member countries. The program supports a wide range of transactions, from commodities and capital goods to medical supplies and consumer goods.

The TFP continues to grow, supporting billions of dollars of trade throughout the region, which in turn helps create sustainable jobs and economic growth in Asia’s developing countries.

 

 

Key Terms:

  • IFC GTFP (Global Trade Finance Program)
  • IFC GTLP (Global Trade Liquidity Program)
  • IFC GTSF (Global Trade Supplier Finance)
  • IFC GWFP (Global Warehouse Finance Program)
  • SME ( Small and Medium Enterprises)
  • LC (Letter of Credit)
  • DC (Documentary Collections)
  • IFC ( International Finance Corporation)
  • WTO (World Trade Organization)
  • ADB (Asian Development Bank)
  • WB (World Bank)
  • MDB ( Multilateral Development Banks)
  • ECA (Export Credit Agency)
  • Structured Trade
  • Aid for Trade
  • SWIFT
  • BRICS NDB (New Development Bank)
  • ADB TFP (Trade Finance Program)

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

Global Trade Liquidity Program

IFC

http://www.ifc.org/wps/wcm/connect/Industry_EXT_Content/IFC_External_Corporate_Site/Industries/Financial+Markets/Trade+and+Supply+Chain/GTLP/

 

 

Trade Finance Program

ADB

https://www.adb.org/site/trade-finance-program

 

 

EXPORTS AND FINANCIAL SHOCKS

Mary Amiti David E. Weinstein

Click to access amiti.pdf

 

 

Why Boosting the Availability of Trade Finance Became a Priority during the 2008–09 Crisis

Jean-Jacques Hallaert

 

Click to access TradeFinancech14.pdf

 

 

International Trade, Risk, and the Role of Banks

Friederike Niepmann Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

September 2013

Revised November 2014

 

Click to access sr633.pdf

 

 

International Trade Risk and the Role of Banks

Niepmann, Friederike and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

2015

Click to access ifdp1151.pdf

 

 

 

Trade finance: developments and issues

Report submitted by a Study Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was chaired by John J Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

January 2014

 

Click to access cgfs50.pdf

 

 

Trade finance and SMEs

WTO

 

Click to access tradefinsme_e.pdf

 

 

Improving the Availability of Trade Finance during Financial Crises

Marc Auboin

Moritz Meier-Ewert

2003

Click to access dis02_e.pdf

 

 

Trade Finance in Financial Crises: Assessment of Key Issues

December 9, 2003

 

Click to access 120903.pdf

 

 

US Trade Finance Guide 2008

Click to access tfg2008.pdf

 

 

ADDRESSING THE GLOBAL SHORTAGE OF TRADE FINANCE

Doina Buruiana, Project Manager at ICC Banking Commission

December 15, 2016

https://internationalbanker.com/finance/addressing-global-shortage-trade-finance/

 

 

Trade finance around the world

Friederike Niepmann, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

11 June 2016

http://voxeu.org/article/trade-finance-around-world

 

 

The challenges of trade financing

Marc Auboin

28 January 2009

http://voxeu.org/article/challenges-trade-financing

 

 

The role of trade credit financing in international trade

Katharina Eck, Martina Engemann, Monika Schnitzer

20 April 2015

http://voxeu.org/article/role-trade-credit-financing-international-trade

 

 

The global financial crisis: A wake-up call for trade finance capacity building in emerging Asia

Wei Liu, Yann Duval

19 June 2009

http://voxeu.org/article/trade-finance-emerging-asian-economies

 

 

The role of bank guarantees in international trade

Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Friederike Niepmann

26 November 2014

http://voxeu.org/article/role-bank-guarantees-international-trade

 

 

Why does finance matter for trade? Evidence from new data

Marc Auboin, Martina Engemann

03 December 2012

http://voxeu.org/article/why-does-finance-matter-trade-evidence-new-data

 

 

Trade and Trade Finance in the 2008-09 Financial Crisis

Prepared by Irena Asmundson, Thomas Dorsey, Armine Khachatryan, Ioana Niculcea,

and Mika Saito

January 2011

Click to access 07364.pdf

Click to access wp1116.pdf

 

 

 

Enhanced Attention for Trade Finance

Andrew Cornford

 

Click to access Trade_Finance.pdf

 

 

Trade finance: The landscape is changing— are you?

Accenture

Click to access Accenture-Trade-Finance.pdf

 

 

RETHINKING TRADE & FINANCE 2016

ICC Global Survey on Trade Finance

 

Click to access ICC_Global_Trade_and_Finance_Survey_2016.pdf

 

 

2016 TRaDE FINaNCE GaPS, GROwTh, aND JObS SURvEY

 

alisa Di Caprio Ying Yao Steven beck Fahad Khan

ADB

 

Click to access trade-finance-gaps.pdf

 

 

Articles on Trade Finance

The Banker.com

http://www.thebanker.com/Transactions-Technology/Trade-Finance

 

 

2016 State of Supply Chain Finance Industry

 

Click to access 2016-State-of-SCF-April-15.pdf

 

 

ICC Global Survey on Trade Finance

 

http://www.iccwbo.org/Products-and-Services/Trade-facilitation/ICC-Global-Survey-on-Trade-Finance/

 

 

 

 

TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT REPORT, 2016

UNCTAD

 

Click to access tdr2016_en.pdf

 

 

No Guarantees, No Trade: How Banks Affect Export Patterns

Friederike Niepmann Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

2016

 

Click to access ifdp1158.pdf

 

 

Understanding Trade Finance: Theory and Evidence from Transaction-level Data

Jae Bin Ahn

International Monetary Fund

August, 2015

 

 

Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis

Davin Chor Kalina Manova

2010

Click to access manova_presentation.pdf

Click to access w16174.pdf

 

 

Trade Finance during the Great Trade Collapse

Jean-Pierre Chauffour and Mariem Malouche

2011

 

Click to access Trade-Finance-finalpdf.pdf

 

 

Why Trade Finance matters for Trade

WTO/IFC

 

Click to access ifcwks3.pdf

 

 

TRADE FINANCE IN PERIODS OF CRISIS: WHAT HAVE WE LEARNED IN RECENT YEARS?

Marc Auboin and Martina Engemann

2013

Click to access ersd201301_e.pdf

 

 

Global Finance Names The World’s Best Trade Finance Providers 2016

https://www.gfmag.com/media/press-releases/global-finance-names-worlds-best-trade-finance-providers-2016

https://www.gfmag.com/magazine/february-2016/worlds-best-trade-finance-providers-2016-table-contents

 

 

The Trade Finance Business of U.S. Banks

Friederike Niepmann and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

MAY 19, 2014

http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/05/the-trade-finance-business-of-us-banks.html

 

 

Why U.S. Exporters Use Letters of Credit

Friederike Niepmann and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr

2014

http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/05/why-us-exporters-use-letters-of-credit.html

 

 

WHAT DRIVES BANK-INTERMEDIATED TRADE FINANCE? EVIDENCE FROM CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS 

José María Serena Garralda

Garima Vasishtha

2015

Click to access dt1524e.pdf

 

 

The impact of Basel III on trade finance

Author: Bc. Jana Malešová

Masters Thesis

 

 

 

The Withdrawal of Correspondent Banking Relationships: A Case for Policy Action

Prepared by Michaela Erbenová, Yan Liu, Nadim Kyriakos-Saad, Alejandro López-Mejía, Giancarlo Gasha, Emmanuel Mathias, Mohamed Norat, Francisca Fernando, and Yasmin Almeida1

2016

 

Click to access sdn1606.pdf

 

 

Leveraging Supply Chain Finance for Development

Alexander R. Malaket

September 2015

 

Click to access E15-Finance-Malaket-final.pdf

 

 

 

Trade Finance: A Catalyst for Asian Growth

Claude Lopez

2015

 

Click to access MPRA_paper_66250.pdf

 

 

 

Trade Flows in Developing Countries: What is the Role of Trade Finance?

 

Clara Brandi Birgit Schmitz

 

Click to access DP_13.2015.pdf

 

 

Financing Global Development: The Potential of Trade Finance

Click to access 13_BP_10.2015.pdf

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

 

From Modeling and Measuring the Bullwhip Effect

Demand variability and uncertainty is a driver of supply chain inventory. Managing supply chains can be a challenge when demand variability and uncertainty is high. For a company in a supply chain consisting of multiple stages, each of which is run by a separate organization (or company), the variability of demand faced by this company can be much higher than the variability faced by downstream stages (where “downstream stages” refers to the stages closer to the final consumption of the product). The bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon where demand variability amplifies as one moves upstream in a supply chain (Lee et al, 1997a, or LPW). LPW described this as a form of demand information distortion. Lee et al (1997b) further discussed the managerial and practical aspects of the bullwhip effect, giving more industry examples. The bullwhip effect phenomenon is closely related to studies in systems dynamics (Forrester, 1961; Sterman, 1989; Senge, 1990). Sterman (1989) observed a systematic pattern of demand variation amplification in the Beer Game, and attributed it to behavioral causes (i.e., misperceptions of feedback). Macroeconomists have also studied the phenomenon (Holt et al, 1968; Blinder, 1981; Blanchard, 1983).

 

From Operational and Behavioral Causes of Supply Chain Instability

 

Supply chain instability is often described as the bullwhip effect, the tendency for variability to increase at each level of a supply chain as one moves from customer sales to production (Lee et al. 1997, Chen et al. 2000). While amplification from stage to stage is important, supply chain instability is a richer and more subtle phenomenon. The economy, and the networks of supply chains embedded within it, is a complex dynamic system and generates multiple modes of behavior. These include business cycles (oscillation), amplification of orders and production from consumption to raw materials (the bullwhip), and phase lag (shifts in the timing of the cycles from consumption to materials). High product returns and spoilage are common in industries from consumer electronics to hybrid seed corn (Gonçalves 2003). Many firms experience pronounced hockey-stick patterns in which orders and output rise sharply just prior to the end of a month or quarter as the sales force and managers rush to hit revenue goals. Boom and bust dynamics in supply chains are often worsened by phantom orders—orders customers place in response to perceived shortages in an attempt to gain a greater share of a shrinking pie (T. Mitchell 1923, Sterman 2000, ch. 18.3, Gonçalves 2002, Gonçalves and Sterman 2005).

What are the causes of supply chain instability? Why does supply chain instability persist, despite the lean revolution and tremendous innovations in technology? What can be done to stabilize supply chains and improve their efficiency?

Here I describe the origins of supply chain instability from a complex systems perspective. The dynamics of supply chain networks arise endogenously from their structure. That structure includes both operational and behavioral elements.

 

From Operational and Behavioral Causes of Supply Chain Instability

Oscillation, Amplification, and Phase Lag

Exhibit 1 shows industrial production in the US. The data exhibit several modes of behavior. First, the long-run growth rate of manufacturing output is about 3.4%/year. Second, as seen in the bottom panel, production fluctuates significantly around the growth trend. The dominant periodicity is the business cycle, a cycle of prosperity and recession of about 3–5 years in duration, but exhibiting considerable variability.

The amplitude of business cycle fluctuations in materials production is significantly greater than that in consumer goods production (exhibit 2). The peaks and troughs of the cycle in materials production also tend to lag behind those in production of consumer goods. Typically, the amplitude of fluctuations increases as they propagate from the customer to the supplier, with each upstream stage tending to lag behind its customer. These three features, oscillation, amplification, and phase lag, are pervasive in supply chains.

 

From Booms, Busts, and Beer: Understanding the Dynamics of Supply Chains

A central question in operations management is whether the oscillations, amplification and phase lag observed in supply chains arise as the result of operational or behavioral causes.

Operational theories assume that decision makers are rational agents who make optimal decisions given their local incentives and information.  Supply chain instability must then result from the interaction of rational actors with the physical and institutional structure of the system.

  • Physical structure includes the network linking customers and suppliers and the placement of inventories and buffers within it, along with capacity constraints and time delays in production, order fulfillment, transportation, and so on.
  • Institutional structure includes the degree of horizontal and vertical coordination and competition among firms, the availability of information to decision makers in each organization, and the incentives faced by each decision maker.

Behavioral explanations also capture the physical and institutional structure of supply chains, but view decision makers as boundedly rational actors with imperfect mental models, actors who use heuristics to make ordering, production, capacity acquisition, pricing and other decisions (Morecroft 1985, Sterman 2000, Boudreau et al. 2003, Gino & Pisano 2008, Bendoly et al. 2010, Croson et al. 2013).

Amplifications and Phase Lag

Amplification and phase lag arise from the presence of basic physical structures including stocks of inventory and delays in adjusting production or deliveries to changes in incoming orders.

Oscillations

Oscillations, however, are not inevitable. They arise from boundedly rational, behavioral decision processes

The difference matters: if supply chain instability arises from operational factors and rational behavior, then policies must be directed at changing the physical and institutional structure of the system, including incentives.

If, however, instability arises from bounded rationality and emotional arousal such policies may not be sufficient.

 

Key People:

  • Jay W Forrester
  • John Sterman
  • Rogelio Oliva
  • Hau L Lee

 

Key Terms:

  • Bullwhip Effect
  • Oscillations
  • Amplifications
  • Negative Feedback Loop
  • Positive Feedback Loop
  • Phase Lag
  • Supply Chain Networks
  • Inventory Management
  • Production Smoothening
  • Beer Distribution Game
  • Industrial Dynamics
  • Operational and Institutional Structures
  • Behavioral causes
  • Instability
  • Variability
  • Uncertainty

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

Behavioral Causes of Demand Amplification in Supply Chains: “Satisficing” Policies with Limited Information Cues

Rogelio Oliva

Paulo Gonçalves

 

Click to access 1889_087eb4f1-0532-4a7d-a206-3d565efc02af_2005-OLIVA133.pdf

 

 

REDUCING THE IMPACT OF DEMAND PROCESS VARIABILITY WITHIN A MULTI-ECHELON SUPPLY CHAIN

Francisco Campuzano Bolarín1,Lorenzo Ros Mcdonnell1, Juan Martín García

2008

 

Click to access CAMPU215.pdf

 

 

The impact of order variance amplification/dampening on supply chain performance

 

Robert N. Boute, Stephen M. Disney, Marc R. Lambrecht and Benny Van Houdt

 

Click to access KBI_0603.pdf

 

 

Coping with Uncertainty: Reducing ”Bullwhip” Behaviour in Global Supply Chains

 

Rachel Mason-Jones, and Denis R. Towill

Click to access 24557527da7aa9da7de238fe7f4a463b2af6.pdf

 

 

Bullwhip in Supply Chains ~ Past, Present and Future

Steve Geary Stephen M Disney and Denis R Towill

 

Click to access 492a6e6ae1d0f186fe2570b7477428e8e467.pdf

 

 

Shrinking the Supply Chain Uncertainty Circle

R Mason-Jones

Click to access 19980901d.pdf

 

 

THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN SUPPLY CHAIN Reflections after a Decade

Gürdal Ertek, Emre Eryılmaz

 

Click to access ertek_eryilmaz_cels2008.pdf

 

 

Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect

Hau L Lee; V Padmanabhan; Seugjin Whang

Management Science; Apr 1997; 43, 4;

Click to access f26117d56ab96aabe2d6cee4c390ab20ee18.pdf

 

 

 

THE SUPPLY CHAIN COMPLEXITY TRIANGE: UNCERTAINTY GENERATION IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN

 

Click to access 140687.pdf

 

 

The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains

Hau L. Lee, V. Padmanabhan and Seungjin Whang

1997

http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-bullwhip-effect-in-supply-chains/

 

 

The Bullwhip Effect: Analysis of the Causes and Remedies

 

Jonathan Moll

Rene Bekker

 

Click to access werkstuk-moll_tcm243-354834.pdf

 

 

‘BULLWHIP’ AND ‘BACKLASH’ IN SUPPLY PIPELINES

Vinaya Shukla, Mohamed M Naim, Ehab A Yaseen

 

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00525857/document

 

 

How human behaviour amplifies the bullwhip effect – a study based on the beer distribution game online

Joerg Nienhaus, Arne Ziegenbein*, Christoph Duijts

 

Click to access Bullwhip_Effect_Article.pdf

 

 

The Bullwhip Effect in Different Manufacturing Paradigm: An Analysis

Shamila Nabi KHAN1 Mohammad Ajmal KHAN2 Ramsha SOHAIL

 

Click to access 11.pdf.pdf

 

 

On replenishment rules, forecasting and the bullwhip effect in supply chains

Stephen M. Disney1 and Marc R. Lambrecht

 

Click to access Disney%20-%20On%20replenishment%20rules%20forecasting%20and%20the%20bullwhip%20effect%20in%20supply%20chains%20pre%20print.pdf

 

 

Causes and Remedies of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain

Sivakumar Balasubramanian Larry Whitman Kartik Ramachandran Ravindra Sheelavant

 

Click to access 2001IERCBullwhip.pdf

 

 

Booms, Busts, and Beer: Understanding the Dynamics of Supply Chains

John Sterman

 

Click to access Sterman%20Beh%20Ops%20Handbook%20Chapter%20140210.pdf

 

 

Modeling and Measuring the Bullwhip Effect

Li Chen and Hau L. Lee

2015

Click to access Chen_Lee_Bullwhip_2015.pdf

 

 

Operational and Behavioral Causes of Supply Chain Instability

John D. Sterman

Click to access 2a3118c5c7d2bd475335549b0b943009d66c.pdf

 

 

Order Stability in Supply Chains: Coordination Risk and the Role of Coordination Stock

Rachel Croson, Karen Donohue, Elena Katok, and John Sterman

Click to access Order%20Stability%20in%20SCs050212.pdf

Click to access Order_Stability_070505.pdf

 

 

SUPPLY CHAIN DYNAMICS, THE “BEER DISTRIBUTION GAME” AND MISPERCEPTIONS IN DYNAMIC DECISION MAKING

John D. Sterman

Click to access E6-63-01-02.pdf

 

 

When Do Minor Shortages Inflate To Great Bubbles?

Paulo Gonçalves

2002

 

Click to access Gonca1.pdf

 

 

A new technology paradigm for collaboration in the supply chain

Branko Pecar and Barry Davies

Click to access c522d454d1dc036a22db29b2dee005dbc44e.pdf

 

 

MANAGERIAL INSIGHTS ON THE IMPACT OF FORECASTING AND INFORMATION ON VARIABILITY IN A SUPPLY CHAIN

Frank Chent, Zvi Drezner2 , Jennifer K. Ryan3 and David Simchi-Levi

 

Click to access 4%20chen.pdf

 

 

Supply and Production Networks: From the Bullwhip Effect to Business Cycles

Dirk Helbing Stefan Laemmer

2004

 

Click to access 04-12-033.pdf

 

 

Inventory dynamics and the bullwhip effect : studies in supply chain performance

Udenio, M.

2014

 

Click to access 776508.pdf

 

 

RECENT WORK ON BUSINES CYCLES IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: REVIEW OF THEORIES AND EVIDENCE

VictorZarnowitz

1984

 

Click to access w1503.pdf

 

 

THEORY AND HISTORY BEHIND BUSINESS CYCLES:ARE THE 1990S

THE ONSET OF A GOLDEN AGE?

 

Victor Zarnowitz

WorkingPaper7010 htp:/w.nber.org/papers/w7010

1999

 

Click to access w7010.pdf

 

 

The Beginning of System Dynamics

Jay W. Forrester

 

Click to access D-4165-1.pdf

 

 

Profiles in Operations Research: Jay Wright Forrester

David C. Lane John D. Sterman

 

Click to access jwf-profile-in-op.pdf

 

 

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: RESEARCH REVIEW

2000

 

Click to access 54fe11ea0aaa47f4c8e08959be2ef52d50a6.pdf

 

 

INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS-AFTER THE FIRST DECADE

JAY W. FORRESTER

 

Click to access Forrester68.pdf

 

 

Industrial Dynamics

Jay W Forrester

1961

 

 

Business Dynamics

John Sterman

2000