USA and China: What are Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Balances

USA and China: What are Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Balances

 

Changes in Global Trade

  • Global Value Chains
  • Production Fragmentation
  • Vertical Specialization
  • Value added content of Trade

 

FROM INTERCONNECTED ECONOMIES : BENEFITING FROM INDUSTRY GLOBALISATION

TIVA4TIVA5

 

From Domestic Value Added in Chinese Exports

 

TIVA12

 

From Measurement and Determinants of Trade in Value Added

 

TIVA11

 

From OECD WTO TIVA

TIVA13

 

Ongoing TiVA Projects

  • OECD TIVA Initiative
  • EU FIGARO Initiative
  • NA TIVA Initiative
  • APEC TiVA Initiative

 

There is also OECD TiVA – MNE Project which incorporates Intra Firm trade of MNEs.

 

From An Overview on the Construction of North American Regional Supply-Use and Input-Output Tables and their Applications in Policy Analysis

Introduction

Trade-in-Value Added (TiVA) is a statistical approach used to measure the interconnectivity and marginal contribution in production of participating economies in global value chains (GVCs) (Degain and Maurer, 2015). The advantage of TiVA over traditional trade statistics is that TiVA measures trade flows consistent with internationally, vertically integrated global production networks, often called GVCs. TiVA statistics allow us to better analyze three aspects of international trade: measuring the contribution of domestic versus foreign intermediates in the exports, tracing production across countries to their final destination, and finally quantifying how individual industries contribute to producing exports (Lewis, 2013).

TiVA statistics allow us to map and quantify the interdependencies between industries and economies, and help us develop better estimates of the contribution from each country in the production processes and, consequently, better measure the impact from GVC engagement for domestic economies. However, it is necessary to highlight the underlying compilation methodology of TiVA in order to better understand the characteristics, scope and interpretation of TiVA. Hence, it is important to remember that TiVA statistics are estimated statistics that are derived, in part, from official statistics. TiVA statistics are meant to complement but not to replace official statistics.

Measuring trade flows in value added as opposed to gross value of trade flows has become increasingly important as the influence that GVCs has on international trade continues to rise. (Johnson, 2014; Ahmad and Ribarsky, 2014). The proliferation of GVCs means that production has become increasingly fragmented and vertically integrated across countries (Jones and Kierzkowski, 1988; Hummels, Ishii, and Yi, 2001; OECD, 2013). At the micro level, this means that many firms in disparate countries are interconnected. Across international borders, these firms take part in particular stages of the production process, together forming a global supply chain. As a result, intermediate inputs may cross international borders several times before being used to produce final consumable goods. This matters for several reasons. First, when goods cross multiple borders multiple times, they are exposed to more trade costs, which accumulate and compound before the goods are sold for final consumption. Additionally, traditional gross trade flows are overstated because gross trade flows may count intermediates multiple times. Relatedly, gross trade flows obscure the marginal contributions of countries along GVCs. TiVA measures the flows related to the value that is added at each stage of production by each country and maps from where value is created, where it is exported, and how it is used, as final consumption or as an input for future exports. How we understand gains from trade from trade flows is fundamental, and value-added approaches lead to better understanding of GVCs and their role in international trade.

There are two ways to capture TiVA. The first method is a direct approach, which decomposes existing data on trade statistics. Johnson (2012) introduce a TiVA indicator using value-added to output ratios from the source country to compute the value-added associated with the implicit output transfer to each destination. Koopman, Wang, and Wei (2014) build on the literature in vertical specialization (e.g. Hummels, Ishii, and Yi 2001) and the literature on TiVA (e.g. Johnson and Noguera, 2012; Daudin, Rifflart, and Schweisguth, 2011) to implement a complete decomposition of a country’s gross exports by value added components. This work has evolved into a second, indirect method of capturing TiVA. The indirect method is employed in the regional North American supply-use table (NASUT) and the regional North American inter-country input-output table (NAIOT). Estimating TiVA this way relies on national and international input-output tables as well as bilateral trade statistics to derive the international intermediate and final supply-demand matrices. These matrices reveal the origin and use of goods and services produced and exchanged among the countries and industries within the table domain. Other major international input-output tables include the Asian International Input-Output (AIO) Tables published by the Institute of Developing Economies Japan External Trade Organization (IDE-JETRO), the Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Tables published by the OECD, the World Input-Output Tables (WIOT) published by the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) project, and the Eora Multi-region Input-Output Database (Eora MRIO).

The studies based on the above two approaches have revealed a trend of rising foreign value-added content in international trade flows and the resulting implications for trade policies. Johnson and Noguera (2016) find that value-added exports are falling relative to gross exports, which means that double-counting is increasingly more common in trade flows. This is consistent with increased GVC activity. Hummels, Ishii, and Yi (2001) show that vertical specialization has grown about 30 percent and accounts for about one-third of the growth in trade from about 1970 to 1990.

In recent years, more than half of global manufacturing imports are intermediate goods and more than 70 percent of global services imports are intermediate services (OECD, 2013). This is relevant because tariffs (and other trade costs) have a higher impact on the cost of GVC activity. Each time an intermediate input crosses an international border as part of the production process, the input incurs trade costs. As first observed by Yi (2003), trade costs are compounded when intermediate goods cross borders multiple times to complete the production process. Rouzet and Miroudot (2013) demonstrate that small tariffs can add up to a significant sum by the time a finished product reaches its consumers. Other trade costs such as non-tariff measures also have such accumulative effect on downstream products.

What the literature indicates the trends in GVCs mean for trade flows, generally, are two-fold. First, with the growth of GVC activity, gross value of trade flows will continue to be larger than the value of final goods that cross borders. Second, trade policy designed with respect to gross trade flows could have the potential to be overly restrictive or even impose costs indirectly on domestic production. Trade-in-Value Added thus provides a supplementary, relevant reference for evaluating the economic effect of trade policies.

In this paper, we introduce the North American Trade-in-Value Added (NA-TiVA) project, a trilateral, multiyear initiative that aims to produce a regional TiVA database that maps the value chains connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico. Furthermore, we introduce and discuss the project’s deliverables, the agencies involved, how the NA-TiVA project complements other ongoing TiVA initiatives around the world, the technical framework for producing a regional inter-country input-output table for the NA region, and the value of this work to resolving open policy questions within international trade.

Ongoing TiVA Initiatives

Currently there are three major ongoing global and regional TiVA projects that are related to the North America TiVA project. They are the World Input-Output database (WIOD), OECD-WTO TiVA, and APEC TiVA initiatives.

The World Input-Output database (WIOD): The official WIOD project ran from May 1, 2009 to May 1, 2012, as a joint effort of eleven European research institutions. It was funded by the European Commission. Under the official WIOD project, the accounting framework and methodologies of constructing the TiVA databases, as well as the first version of the World Input-Output database were developed. The database was officially launched in April 2012. Since then, two additional versions of WIOD databases, namely the 2013 and 2016 Releases, were published. The 2016 Released database covers 28 EU countries and 15 other major economies in the world for years 2000-2014 with 56 industries.

The OECD-WTO TiVA database: The Organization for Economic Cooperate and Development (OECD) and World Trade Organization (WTO) undertook a joint initiative on TiVA in 2013. Since then, two versions of TiVA databases have been released (2013 and 2015 release). The 2015 release of OECD-WTO TiVA database covers 61 countries and 13 regions, with 34 industries, for years 1995, 2000, 2005, 2008-2011.

APEC TiVA initiative: In 2014, APEC economic leaders endorsed the APEC TiVA database initiative, a four-year project co-led by China and the United States. Under this project, an APEC TiVA database would be constructed by the end of 2018, covering 21 APEC economies.

Each of these three major global and regional TiVA initiatives include Canada, Mexico, and the United States. In the light of this, why is there still a need for constructing the NA TiVA database? What kind of additional value can the NA TiVA project bring to this global and regional network of TiVA initiatives?

The NA-TiVA project was motivated by regional statistical developments and continuous improvements in compiling TiVA databases. The 2003 Mexican input-output table distinguishes trade flows by domestic producers and production undertaken in Maquiladoras, a tax-free, tariff-free special processing zone, which allowed the estimates of separate production coefficients and thus TiVA measures for these two distinctive zones in Mexico (Koopman, Powers, Wang, and Wei, 2010; De la Cruz, Koopman, Wang, and Wei, 2011). The government of Canada further highlighted the importance and relevance of global value chains in the publication of a book assessing the impact and implication of GVCs (Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada, 2011); and as of the 2015 edition of the OECD’s ICIO tables, Mexico is broken out as Mexico Global Manufacturers and Mexico Non-Global Manufacturers. This NA TiVA project builds off of these developments.

Constructing inter-country input-output tables, or so called TiVA databases, requires the harmonization of national supply-use tables (SUTs) or input-output tables (IOTs) as well as bilateral trade statistics from different countries. However, the data produced by countries often vary greatly in the level of detail and differ in industry and product classifications. Thus, the more countries are included in a global or regional TiVA project, the higher level of aggregation would be required for the purpose of harmonization. With only three countries involved, it is feasible for the NA TiVA database to include more products and sectors than other global and regional TiVA projects.

Moreover, other factors, such as all three countries adopt the same industry and product classifications (e.g. using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS)), and produce SUTS at similarly detailed levels, would ensure the compatibility of data components, and thus lead to better quality of the resulting NA TiVA database.

Finally, the NA TiVA project could synthesize the ongoing trilateral trade statistics reconciliation effort and produce better-quality balanced bilateral trade data to feed into other global and regional TiVA initiatives. One of the key inputs for constructing TiVA databases is balanced bilateral trade statistics. However, countries rarely report symmetric bilateral trade statisticsone country’s reported exports rarely equals its trading partner’s reported imports, and vice versa. To reconcile such asymmetries to produce balanced bilateral trade statistics, joint effort by both trading countries is warranted, including investigating the causes of asymmetries at detailed product level and making corresponding adjustment mechanically. However, global and regional TiVA initiatives often have to consider an incredible number of country pairs, making such an elaborate reconciliation practice rather infeasible. Thus, global and regional TiVA initiatives often turn to economic modelling to balance bilateral trade statistics which could be applied in a systematic way to all countries. Although such approach can be mathematically sound, the resulting data often require additional scrutiny, validation, and adjustment, as they do not always reflect the reality accurately. Canada, Mexico, and the United States have ongoing bilateral trade reconciliation. This NA TiVA project provides additional motivation and framework for this effort.

The History, Scope, and Major Objectives of the NA TiVA Initiative

In October 2014, the representatives from the United States, Canada, and Mexico met and kicked off the idea of constructing the NA TiVA database at a UN conference in Mexico. The main objective of this project is to construct the NA TiVA database by 2021 covering three NA countries with more detailed industry and firm information, and to improve the quality of TiVA measures for the value chains in the NA region.

The NA-TiVA project involves eight government agencies across the three NA countries: for Canada, Statistics Canada (STATCAN) and Global Affairs Canada; for Mexico, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (INEGI) and Banco de Mexico; and for the United States, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the U.S. Census Bureau (CENSUS), the U.S. International Trade Commission (USITC), and the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR).

In addition, because the resulting NA-TiVA database would be eventually integrated into the OECD-WTO TiVA database to improve the quality of information on the North American region, participants of the NA-TiVA project regularly meet with OECD representatives to harmonize TiVA database compilation methodologies, exchange data to synthesize the effort and ensure consistency across countries, and discuss best practices. Other international organizations, such as United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), and WTO, are often consulted as well for national account and trade statistics related issues.

Under the NA-TiVA initiative, three parallel work streams have been established: The trade in goods and services reconciliation team, which is tasked to produce balanced bilateral trade statistics for goods and services; the SUT team, whose goal is to harmonize the national SUTs and compile the regional NASUTs and NAIOTs; and the White Paper team, the goal of which is to produce documentation that outlines the conceptual methodology, identifies major technical issues, describes policy applications of a NA-TiVA initiative, and details project outputs as well as future work.

FROM INTERCONNECTED ECONOMIES :BENEFITING FROM INDUSTRY GLOBALISATION

 

TIVA6

 

 

From Supply-Use Tables, Trade-in-Value-Added Initiatives, and their Applications

TIVATIVA2TIVA3

Please see my related posts:

Understanding Global Value Chains – G20/OECD/WB Initiative

The Collapse of Global Trade during Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009

Development of Global Trade and Production Accounts: UN SEIGA Initiative

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

Production Chain Length and Boundary Crossings in Global Value Chains

 

Key Sources of Research:

The U.S.-China Bilateral Balance In Trade In Value Added

2017

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4048166-u-s-china-bilateral-balance-trade-value-added

 

 

 

 

Understanding the US-China Trade Relationship

Prepared for the US-China Business Council By Oxford Economics

January 2017

 

https://www.uschina.org/sites/default/files/OE%20US%20Jobs%20and%20China%20Trade%20Report.pdf

 

 

 

Implications and Interpretations of Value-Added Trade Balances

John B. Benedetto

2012

 

https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/journals/implicationsand.pdf

 

 

The U.S.–China trade deficit—a value-added perspective

Demetrio Scopelliti

BLS

2013

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/beyond-bls/pdf/u-s-china-trade-deficit.pdf

 

 

 

The value-added content of trade

Robert Johnson, Guillermo Noguera

07 June 2011

 

https://voxeu.org/article/value-added-content-trade-new-insights-us-china-imbalance

 

 

 

Trade in Value-Added

December 3, 2013

Logan Lewis

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/notes/ifdp-notes/2013/trade-in-value-added-20131203.html

 

 

 

 

China-U.S. Trade Issues

Wayne M. Morrison

Specialist in Asian Trade and Finance
April 2, 2018

FAS

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33536.pdf

 

 

 

The China Shock revisited: Insights from value added trade flows

Adam Jakubiky Victor Kummritzz

June 30, 2017

http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2017/papers/jk_draft.pdf

 

 

 

 

Measurement and Determinants of Trade in Value Added

Nakgyoon Choi

2013

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2317706

 

 

 

 

OECD-WTO: Statistics on Trade in Value Added

OECD

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/trade/data/oecd-wto-statistics-on-trade-in-value-added_data-00648-en

 

 

 

 

NAFTA, VALUE ADDED AND TRADE-IN-TASKS

Antonio Rodriguez-Lopez

http://usmex.ucsd.edu/_files/NAFTA-essays/nafta-essays-rodriguez-lopez.pdf

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added and the Value Added in Trade

Robert Stehrer

http://www.wiod.org/conferences/brussels/Stehrer_background_2.pdf

 

 

 

 

US Trade Wars with Emerging Countries in the 21st Century: Make America and Its Partners Lose Again

Antoine Bouët (International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., and Groupe de Recherche en Économie Théorique et Appliquée [GREThA], University of Bordeaux, France)
David Laborde (International Food Policy Research Institute)

2017

https://www.parisschoolofeconomics.eu/docs/koenig-pamina/article_us_tradewars_bouet_laborde_2017.pdf

 

 

 

Measuring Value Added in the People’s Republic of China’s Exports: A Direct Approach.

Xing, Y.

2014.

ADBI Working Paper 493. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/156348/adbi-wp493.pdf

 

 

 

 

International Trade Costs, Global Supply Chains and Value-added Trade in
Australia

Gerard Kelly and Gianni La Cava
RDP 2014-07

 

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/rdp/2014/pdf/rdp2014-07.pdf

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added Revisited: A Comment on R. Johnson and G. Noguera,
Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added

 

Masaaki Kuboniwa
January, 2014

 

http://www.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/Common/publication/DP/DP598.pdf

 

 

 

 

How iPhone Widens the US Trade Deficits with PRC

Yuqing Xing
And
Neal Detert

Nov 2010
http://www3.grips.ac.jp/~pinc/data/10-21.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in value added (TIVA)

2012

https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/publications/Documents/trade-in-value-added-2012.pdf

 

 

Global Value Chains (GVCs)

OECD

http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/global-value-chains.htm

 

 

 

INTERCONNECTED ECONOMIES: BENEFITING FROM GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

SYNTHESIS REPORT

OECD

https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/interconnected-economies-GVCs-synthesis.pdf

 

 

 

TRACING THE VALUE ADDED IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS:
PRODUCT-LEVEL CASE STUDIES IN CHINA

UNCTAD

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditctncd2015d1_en.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Growth of Chinese Exports:
An Examination of the Detailed Trade Data

Brett Berger
Robert F. Martin

US Federal Reserve

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2011/1033/ifdp1033.pdf

 

 

 

 

Comparing Trade Performance of China and India

Sarah Y TONG

http://www.eai.nus.edu.sg/publications/files/Vol1No1_SarahTong.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added : China

OECD WTO

2015

https://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/tiva/CN_2015_China.pdf

 

 

 

Value-Added Trade and Its Implications for International Trade Policy

Kemal Derviş, Joshua P. Meltzer, and Karim Foda

https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/value-added-trade-and-its-implications-for-international-trade-policy/

 

 

 

 

Bilateral Trade Balances with China: A Matter of Accounting

Submitted by Dana Vorisek

co-authors: Tianli Zhao

On Thu, 02/05/2015

http://blogs.worldbank.org/prospects/bilateral-trade-balances-china-matter-accounting

 

 

 

Value-Added Exports and U.S. Local Labor Markets:
Does China Really Matter?

Leilei Sheny
Peri Silvaz

WTO

August 2017

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/gtdw_e/wkshop17_e/silva_e.pdf

 

 

 

HOW MUCH OF CHINESE EXPORTS IS REALLY MADE IN CHINA? ASSESSING
DOMESTIC VALUE-ADDED WHEN PROCESSING TRADE IS PERVASIVE

 

Robert Koopman
Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei

NBER

June 2008

http://www.nber.org/papers/w14109.pdf

 

 

 

 

GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE:
TRACING VALUE ADDED IN GLOBAL PRODUCTION CHAINS

Robert Koopman
William Powers
Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei

September 2010

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16426.pdf

 

 

 

SPIDERS AND SNAKES:
OFFSHORING AND AGGLOMERATION IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Richard Baldwin
Anthony Venables

December 2010

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16611.pdf

 

 

 

TRADING TASKS: A SIMPLE THEORY OF OFFSHORING

Gene M. Grossman
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

December 2006

http://www.nber.org/papers/w12721

 

 

 

 

PRODUCTION CHAINS

David K. Levine

December 2010

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16571.pdf

 

 

 

AN ELEMENTARY THEORY OF GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS

Arnaud Costinot
Jonathan Vogel
Su Wang

April 2011

http://www.nber.org/papers/w16936.pdf

 

 

 

TRADE-IN-GOODS AND TRADE-IN-TASKS:
AN INTEGRATING FRAMEWORK

Richard Baldwin
Frédéric Robert-Nicoud

April 2010

http://www.nber.org/papers/w15882.pdf

 

 

Measurement of Trade in Value-Added: using Chinese Input-output Tables
Capturing Processing Trade

Yang Cuihong1, Chen Xikang1, Duan Yuwan1, Jiang Xuemei1, Pei Jiansuo3, Xu Jian2,
Yang Lianling1, Zhu Kunfu1

 

https://www.statistics.gov.hk/wsc/STS024-P3-S.pdf

 

 

 

Adjusted China-US Trade Balance

Lawrence J. Lau, Xikang Chen and Yanyan Xiong

March 2017

http://www.igef.cuhk.edu.hk/igef_media/working-paper/IGEF/igef%20working%20paper%20no.%2054%20english%20version.pdf

 

 

 

Domestic Value Added in Chinese Exports

Hiau Looi Kee and Heiwai Tang

World Bank and Tufts University
December 2011

https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2011/trade/pdf/session2-tang-presentation.pdf

 

 

 

NETWORKS OF VALUE ADDED TRADE

2015
João Amador | Sónia Cabral

Bank of Portugal

https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp201516.pdf

 

 

 

 

Processing Trade, Exchange Rates and China’s Bilateral Trade Balances

Yuqing Xing

Jan 2011

 

http://www.grips.ac.jp/r-center/wp-content/uploads/10-30.pdf

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added
WTO TiVA Profiles

Regional Workshop on
International Merchandise Trade Statistics
11-13 September 2017
Suzhou, China

UNSD

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2017/suzhou/presentations/Agenda%20item%2019%20(c)%20-%20WTO.pdf

 

 

 

 

FRAGMENTATION AND TRADE IN VALUE ADDED OVER FOUR DECADES

Robert C. Johnson
Guillermo Noguera

June 2012

http://www.nber.org/papers/w18186.pdf

 

 

 

 

TRACING VALUE-ADDED AND DOUBLE COUNTING IN GROSS EXPORTS

Robert Koopman
Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei

November 2012

http://www.nber.org/papers/w18579.pdf

 

 

 

 

ORGANIZING THE GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN

Pol Antràs
Davin Chor

June 2012

 

http://www.nber.org/papers/w18163.pdf

 

 

 

 

OFFSHORING: GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS ON WAGES, PRODUCTION
AND TRADE

Richard Baldwin
Frederic Robert-Nicoud

March 2007

 

http://www.nber.org/papers/w12991.pdf

 

 

 

 

TRADING TASKS: A SIMPLE THEORY OF OFFSHORING

Gene M. Grossman
Esteban Rossi-Hansberg

December 2006

http://www.nber.org/papers/w12721.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added: Developing New Measures of Cross-Border Trade

World Bank

2013

http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/196231468326398562/pdf/786210PUB0REPL00Box377348B00PUBLIC0.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added

Maria Borga Jiemin Guo

BEA Advisory Committee

May 10, 2013

 

https://www.bea.gov/about/pdf/0613_borga_guo_trade_in_value.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in value added Concepts, applications and challenges

Training Workshop on Trade in Services Negotiations for AU-CFTA Negotiators
Nairobi, Kenya

WTO

http://unctad.org/meetings/en/Presentation/ditc-ted-Nairobi-24082015-WTO-liberatore-2.pdf

 

 

 

Trade in Value-Added: I-O approach and the domestic content of exports

UNSD

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/globalforum/trade-value-added.asp

 

 

 

 

TRADE IN VALUE-ADDED: WTO-OECD DATABASE

Courtesy of Sébastien Miroudot (OECD)

UNESCAP

https://artnet.unescap.org/tid/artnet/mtg/cbtr9-sebastien.pdf

 

 

 

 

TRADE IN VALUE-ADDED: CONCEPTS, METHODOLOGIES AND CHALLENGES
(JOINT OECD-WTO NOTE)

OECD WTO

http://www.oecd.org/sti/ind/49894138.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added and the Value Added in Trade

WIOD

Working Paper Number: 8
Author: Robert Stehrer

http://www.wiod.org/publications/papers/wiod8.pdf

 

 

 

Measuring Trade in Value-Added

Draft Chapter 9

Meeting of Group of Experts on National Accounts –
Interim meeting on Global Production
Geneva, 3-4 April 2013

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2013/Working_Paper_9.pdf

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added: The Challenge of International Trade Statistics
With an Empirical Study on Trade in Norway and the Netherlands 2000-2012

Ida Helene Berg

https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/40975/BergIdaHelene.pdf?sequence=9

 

 

 

Trade in Value-Added and Comparative Advantage

DrRadford Schantz

25thINFORUM Conference
Riga

August 28-September 2, 2017

http://inforumweb.umd.edu/papers/conferences/2017/usa_schantz_2017_slides.pdf

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added: An East Asian Perspective.

Inomata, S.

2013.

ADBI Working Paper 451. Tokyo: Asian Development Bank Institute.

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/156306/adbi-wp451.pdf

 

 

 

 

Global Value Chains and Trade in Value-Added: New Insights, Better Policies

Ken Ash

March 2013

 

https://www.worldeconomics.com/papers/Global%20Value%20Chains%20and%20Trade%20in%20ValueAdded_f7fe83a3-ec02-4180-9b02-04d1d85bb59a.paper

 

 

 

OECD WORK ON GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND TRADE IN VALUE ADDED

Koen De Backer

2013

http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/imported/events/130627_de_backer.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Value-added Structure of Gross Exports and Global Production Network

Robert Koopman and Zhi Wang
United States International Trade Commission

Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University, CEPR and NBER

https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/5839.pdf

 

 

 

Singapore’s Trade in Value Added:
Importance and Implication of Information from the OCED-WTO TiVA Database

Mun–Heng TOH

 

https://www.iioa.org/conferences/24th/papers/files/2582_20160412091_Singapore_TiVA.pdf

 

 

 

 

Value added and participation in Global Value Chains:
the case of Spain

Marta Solaz
Universitat de Valencia

Fourth World KLEMS Conference, 23-24 May 2016

http://www.worldklems.net/conferences/worldklems2016/worldklems2016_Solaz_slides.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in Value Added (TiVA): December 2016

OECD

https://stats.oecd.org/index.aspx?queryid=75537

 

 

 

 

An Overview on the Construction of North American Regional Supply-Use and Input-Output Tables and their Applications in Policy Analysis

Statistics Canada
Anthony Peluso
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Gabriel Medeiros
Jeffrey Young
U.S. International Trade Commission
Ross J. Hallren
Lin Jones
Richard Nugent
Heather Wickramarachi

ECONOMICS WORKING PAPER SERIES
Working Paper 2017-12-A

https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/working_papers/ecwp-2017-12-a-12-12-17-as-pdf_0.pdf

 

 

 

 

C. The rise of global value chains

World Trade Report

2014

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/wtr14-2c_e.pdf

 

 

 

 

MEASURING VALUE IN GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

Rashmi Banga

UNCTAD
May 2013

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ecidc2013misc1_bp8.pdf

 

 

 

 

Highlights and Challenges of Measuring Global Production

Tom Howells
Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee
Suitland Federal Center

June 9, 2017

https://www2.census.gov/adrm/fesac/2017-06-09/Howells-Presentation.pdf

 

 

 

 

Value added trade: A tale of two concepts

Robert Stehrer

The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
Version: 2012-12-09

December 10-11, 2012 – CompNet workshop
ECB Frankfurt, Germany.

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.361.9428&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

Summary Report of the Fifth Meeting of
APEC Technical Group of Measurement on TiVA under GVCs

August 2017

http://gvc.mofcom.gov.cn/Tjbh/inforimages/201709/20170901142536597.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in value added: do we need new measures of competitiveness?

Kirsten Lommatzsch, Maria Silgoner and Paul Ramskogler

2016

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1936.en.pdf?54d5d8210e9e26ed5bf65d4279223622

 

 

 

 

Who Faces the Risk of Collateral Damage from U.S. Tariffs?

wells Fargo

March 2018

https://www.wellsfargo.com/assets/pdf/commercial/insights/economics/special-reports/collateral-damage-20180326.pdf

 

 

 

 

Supply-Use Tables, Trade-in-Value-Added Initiatives, and their Applications

William Powers

ADB Supply and Use Tables Validation Workshop

Bangkok, Thailand
30 June, 2016

https://wpqr4.adb.org/dm/atom/library/_Psut_RMain/document/_Psut_RPageLibrary48257E1F0010578E_D0819CE5DCD76117148257FE2002C81CC_ATiVA_5f2016_5fPowers.pdf/media

 

 

 

 

CHAPTER 13. APPLICATIONS OF EXTENDED SUPPLY AND USE TABLES:
CONSTRUCTING GLOBAL SUPPLY AND USE AND INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES

UNSD

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2016/nov-newyork/presentations/thu/Chapter%2013%20-%20Applications%20for%20Global%20Tables.pdf

 

 

 

 

APEC: Trade in Value Added under Global Value Chains

Erich H. Strassner

2ndStatistics Conference “Measuring the Economy in a Globalized World”
Santiago, Chile
3-4 October 2017

http://www.bcentral.cl/documents/20143/926189/4.2.%28Strassner%29.pdf/d18bab8d-2331-3af2-fcc5-e877c1722880

 

 

 

CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS AND FUTURE EXPANSIONS OF
TRADE IN VALUE-ADDED PROJECT IN OECD

Norihiko YAMANO

2016

http://indicadoreseconomicos.bccr.fi.cr/indicadoreseconomicos/Documentos/Foro_MIP/current_developments_trade_valueadded_yamano.pdf

 

 

 

 

Estimating Extended Supply-Use Tables in Basic Prices with Firm Heterogeneity for the United States:A Proof of Concept

Lin Z. Jones and ZhiWang (USITC)
James J. Fetzer, Thomas F. Howells III, Erich H. Strassner (BEA)

The Fourth World KLEMS Conference
Madrid, Spain
May 23-24, 2016

http://www.worldklems.net/conferences/worldklems2016/worldklems2016_Strassner_slides.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Work Plan for the Technical Group for the Measurement of APEC TiVA Under GVCs
Purpose: Information

Submitted by: China, United States
First Committee on Trade and Investment Meeting
Clark, Philippines
3-4 February 2015

http://www.foodfti.com/Files/Name/CONTENT50694276526.pdf

 

 

 

 

APEC in 2014

https://www.eastwestcenter.org/sites/default/files/filemanager/pubs/pdfs/NewDirections/NewDirections-05apec.pdf

 

 

 

Global value chains and trade in value added

EUROSTAT

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Global_value_chains_and_trade_in_value_added

 

 

 

Services and Manufacturing : Patterns of Linkages

Expert Group Meeting on “Global Value Chains, Regional Integration and Sustainable Development: Asia-Pacific Perspectives”

12 Dec 2014 – UNESCAP, Bangkok

http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/EGM-Session%203-Andre%20Wirjo.pdf

 

 

 

The 3rd Capacity Building Workshop on Strategic Framework on Measurement of APEC TiVA under GVCs and its Action Plan

APEC

2017

https://aimp2.apec.org/sites/PDB/Lists/Proposals/DispForm.aspx?ID=2012

 

 

 

 

Capacity Building Workshop on Strategic Framework on Measurement of APEC TiVA under GVCs and its Action Plan

APEC

2016

https://aimp2.apec.org/sites/PDB/Lists/Proposals/DispForm.aspx?ID=1831

 

 

 

 

Enhancing Value Chains An Agenda for APEC

CSIS

2013

http://www.ncapec.org/publications/docs/EnhancingValueChains%20Report.pdf

 

 

 

Changing Patterns of Trade and Global Value Chains in Postcrisis Asia

Ganeshan Wignaraja

Juzhong Zhuang

Mahinthan J. Mariasingham

Madeline Dumaua-Cabauatan

2017

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/225091/changing-patterns-trade-gvc.pdf

 

 

 

Global value chains in a changing world

Edited by Deborah K. Elms and Patrick Low

WTO

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/aid4tradeglobalvalue13_e.pdf

 

 

 

 

Trade in value added: Concepts, estimation and analysis,

Javorsek, Marko; Camacho, Ignacio

(2015) :

ARTNeT Working Paper Series, No. 150

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/145386/1/826594735.pdf

 

 

 

India’s Future in Asia: The APEC Opportunity

By Harsha V. Singh and Anubhav Gupta

 

https://asiasociety.org/files/ASPI_APEC_fullreport_online.pdf

 

 

 

Update on New Measurements of the Impacts of Globalization

James J. Fetzer and Thomas F. Howells III

Advisory Committee Meeting
Washington, DC
November 13, 2015

 

https://bea.gov/about/pdf/acm/2015/november/update-on-new-measurements-of-the-impacts-of-globalization.pdf

 

 

 

 

ASIA-PACIFIC
TRADE AND INVESTMENT REPORT 2016
Recent Trends and Developments

Shamshad Akhtar

Hongjoo Hahm

Susan F. Stone

Copyright © United Nations 2016

http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/publications/aptir-2016-full.pdf

 

 

 

 

Asia’s Rise in the
New World Trade Order
The Effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Asian Countries
Part 2 of the GED Study Series:
Effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements

 

https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/NW_Asia_s_Rise_in_the_New_World_Trade_Order.pdf

 

 

 

The role of different types of firms in GVCs

GGDC 25th Anniversary Conference

 

Stephen Chong, Rutger Hoekstra, Oscar Lemmers, Ilke Van Beveren, Marcel van den Berg, Ron van der Wal, Piet Verbiest

https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/events/conference2017/presentations/presentation_lemmers.pdf

 

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND SOUTH-SOUTH TRADE

UNCTAD

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/gdsecidc2015d1_en.pdf

 

 

 

 

Annex 5: Strategic Framework on Measurement of
APEC TiVA Under GVCs

APEC

http://mddb.apec.org/Documents/2014/SOM/SOM2/14_som2_049anx05.pdf

 

 

 

 

Estimating Extended Supply-Use Tables in Basic Prices with Firm Heterogeneity for the United States: A Proof of Concept

James J. Fetzer, Thomas F. Howells III, Lin Z. Jones, Erich H. Strassner, and Zhi Wang1

The Fourth World KLEMS Conference
Madrid, Spain
May 23-24, 2016

http://www.worldklems.net/conferences/worldklems2016/worldklems2016_Strassner.pdf

 

 

 

 “Participation of Developing Countries in Global Value Chains: Implications for Trade and Trade-Related Policies”

Kowalski, P. et al.

(2015),

OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 179,
OECD Publishing, Paris

https://www.die-gdi.de/uploads/media/OECD_Trade_Policy_Papers_179.pdf

 

 

 

 

Complex Network Analysis for Characterizing Global Value Chains in Equipment Manufacturing.

Xiao H, Sun T, Meng B, Cheng L

(2017)

PLoS ONE 12(1):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5231281/pdf/pone.0169549.pdf

 

 

 

A Network of Networks Perspective on Global Trade.

Maluck J, Donner RV

(2015)

PLoS ONE 10(7)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4510408/pdf/pone.0133310.pdf

 

 

 

Trends of the World Input and Output Network of Global Trade.

del RõÂo-Chanona RM, Grujić J, Jeldtoft Jensen H

(2017)

PLoS ONE 12(1):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5270329/pdf/pone.0170817.pdf

 

 

 

World Input-Output Network.

Cerina F, Zhu Z, Chessa A, Riccaboni M

(2015)

PLoS ONE 10(7):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4519177/pdf/pone.0134025.pdf

 

 

 

FAQ on GVCs: some answers from the Global I-O tables approach

Rita Cappariello,

 

https://www.centrorossidoria.it/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Rita-Cappariello.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

A Markovian model of evolving world input-output network.

Moosavi V, Isacchini G

(2017)

PLoS ONE 12(10):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5655482/pdf/pone.0186746.pdf

 

 

 

 

Hierarchicality of Trade Flow Networks Reveals Complexity of Products.

Shi P, Zhang J, Yang B, Luo J

(2014)

PLoS ONE 9(6):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4048167/pdf/pone.0098247.pdf

 

 

 

International Trade Modelling Using Open Flow Networks: A Flow-Distance Based Analysis.

Shen B, Zhang J, Li Y, Zheng Q, Li X
(2015)

PLoS ONE 10(11):

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4646344/pdf/pone.0142936.pdf

 

 

 

THE EVOLVING GEOGRAPHY OF PRODUCTION HUBS AND REGIONAL VALUE CHAINS ACROSS EAST ASIA: TRADE IN VALUE-ADDED

G. Suder (Melbourne Business School), P. Liesch (UQ), S. Inomata (JETRO- IDE), I. Jormanainen (Aalto University) and B. Meng (JETRO- IDE and OECD),

For: Journal of World Business

 

https://minerva-access.unimelb.edu.au/bitstream/handle/11343/159095/The%20evolving%20geography%20of%20production%20hubs%20and%20regional%20value%20chains%20across%20East%20Asia-%20Trade%20in%20value-added.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

 

 

 

 

AN ICIO SPLIT ACCORDING TO DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN OWNERSHIP:
THE OECD TIVA-MNE PROJECT

Charles Cadestin, Koen De Backer, Isabelle Desnoyers-James,
Sébastien Miroudot, Davide Rigo and Ming Ye

OECD

2017

https://www.iioa.org/conferences/25th/papers/files/2757_20170515071_Cadestin_et_al_2017_ICIO_split_ownership.pdf

 

 

 

 

THE FIGARO PROJECT: THE EU INTER-COUNTRY SUPPLY, USE AND INPUT-OUTPUT TABLES

 

https://www.iioa.org/conferences/24th/papers/files/2504_20160519071_Item10-12_FIGAROproject.pdf

 

 

Identifying Heterogeneity in the Production Components of Globally Engaged Business Enterprises in the United States

James Fetzer and Erich H. Strassner

June 10, 2015

US BEA

 

https://www.bea.gov/papers/pdf/identifying-heterogeneity-in-the-production-components-of-globally-engaged-business-enterprises-in-the-united-states.pdf

 

 

The EU Inter-country Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables (FIGARO Project): Recent progress

Prepared by Eurostat

2017

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2017/3_-_FIGARO_project.pdf

 

 

Tracing value-added and double counting in sales of foreign affiliates and domestic-owned companies

Sebastien Miroudot and ming ye

Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD, Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD

14 March 2018

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/85723/1/MPRA_paper_85723.pdf

 

Identifying Heterogeneity in the Production Components of Globally Engaged Business Enterprises in the United States

Prepared by Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

2015

 

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2015/July/11_Identifying_Heterogeneity__US_.pdf

 

 

 

 

Estimating Extended Supply-Use Tables in Basic Prices with Firm Heterogeneity for the United States: A Proof of Concept (Draft)

Prepared by the United States

2017

 

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2017/7_-_Estimating_Extended_Supply-Use_Tables_in_Basic_Prices.pdf

 

 

TIVA: CONSTRUCTING THE ICIO TABLE AND FUTURE WORK

 

Fabienne Fortanier (Head of Trade Statistics, OECD) Christophe Degain (Senior Statistician, WTO)

OECD

https://ecastats.uneca.org/acsweb/Portals/0/Etraining_SUT/Session%2012_WTO-OECD%20SUT%20and%20ICIOT%20-%20Training%20module%20(ECA)%20-%20English%20Final.pdf

 

 

 

 

FIGARO
Full International and Global Accounts for Research in Input-
Output analysis
The EU Inter-country Supply, Use and Input-Output Tables

José M. Rueda-Cantuche

Isabelle Rémond-Tiedrez

Item 4, NAWG Meeting, Luxembourg, 11 May 2016

https://www.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/stats/documents/ece/ces/ge.20/2016/Item_4d_FIGARO_UNECE_new.pdf

 

 

 

OECD-WTO Trade in Value Added (TiVA) data: introduction

OECD

 

https://ecastats.uneca.org/acsweb/Portals/0/Etraining_SUT/Session%2011_WTO-OECD%20TiVA%20intro%20-%20Training%20module%20(ECA)%20-%20English%20FINAL.pdf

 

 

 

Trade and Investment Linkages in Global Value Chains: Insights from the new TiVA-MNE Dataset

OECD

2016

 

https://www.oecd.org/tad/policynotes/trade-investment-linkages-in-gvc.pdf

 

 

INTERCONNECTED ECONOMIES:
BENEFITING FROM INDUSTRY GLOBALISATION

Dirk Pilat,

Global Industry and Economy Forum 2013:
Fostering Industrial Innovation through
Creativity
Seoul, 24 June 2013

 

 

Calculating Trade in Value Added

Prepared by Aqib Aslam, Natalija Novta, and Fabiano Rodrigues-Bastos1

July 2017

IMF

https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WP/2017/wp17178.ashx

 

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Regional Trading Blocs and Economic Integration

Regional Trading Blocs and Economic Integration

 

 

From Asia’s Rise in the New World Trade Order

Asia Rising

RTA5

 

 

From What is Regional Trade Blocs or Free Trade Agreements?

As trade integration across countries is intensifying, we hear more and more about Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and Regional Trade Blocs (RTBs). As their name suggests these RTBs/FTAs are arrangements aimed for faster trade liberalisation at regional levels.

Countries are convinced that trade is an engine of growth and they are searching for arrangements that promote trade.

The WTO that contains 162 countries is the most popular one; a truly multilateral forum for trade liberalisation. But the history of WTO led trade liberalisation shows that the organisation is facing difficulty in bringing further trade liberalisation because of conflicting interest among large number of countries.

This has led to interest in trade liberalisation within a limited number of countries that may be regionally close together. These regional trade promoting arrangements advocate more tariff cuts and removal of other restrictions within the group while maintaining restrictions against the rest of the world.

Though many regional trade agreements like the EU, NAFTA and ASEAN were established before or around the time of WTO’s formation, there is mushrooming of RTBs in recent years. Recently formed Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) shows this increasing affinity towards RTBs. Many RTBs like the TPP would like to make advanced level trade liberalisation and hence they are not satisfied with the slow pace of trade liberalisation within the WTO.

What are Regional Trade Blocs (RTBs)?

Regional Trade Blocs or Regional Trade Agreements (or Free Trade Agreements) are a type of regional intergovernmental arrangement, where the participating countries agree to reduce or eliminate barriers to trade like tariffs and non-tariff barriers.  The RTBs are thus historically known for promoting trade within a region by reducing or eliminating tariff among the member countries.

Over the last few decades, international trade liberalisations are taking place in a serious manner through the formation of RTBs. They are getting wide attention because of many important international developments. First, now the world is trying hard to escape from the ongoing great recession phase. Second is the failure of the WTO to take further liberalisation measures on the trade liberalisation front.

The EU, NAFTA, ASEAN, SAFTA etc are all examples for regional integration. The triad of North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific have the most successful trade blocs. Recently signed Trans Pacific Partnership is a powerful RTB. Similarly, another one called RCEP is in negotiation round. India has signed an FTA with the ASEAN in 2009. Simultaneously, the country has signed many bilateral FTAs.

Different types of RTBs

All regional trade blocs don’t have the same degree of trade liberalisation. They may differ in terms of the extent of tariff cutting, coverage of goods and services, treatment of cross border investment among them, agreement on movement of labour etc.

The simple form of regional trade bloc is the Free Trade Area. The Free Trade Area is a type of trade bloc, a designated group of countries that have agreed to eliminate tariffs, quotas and preferences on most (if not all)goods and services traded between them.

From the lowest to the highest, regional trade integration may vary from just tariff reduction arrangement to adoption of a single currency. The most common type of regional trade bloc is the free trade agreement where the members abolish tariffs within the region. Following are the main types of regional economic integrations.

Classification of RTBs

Preferential trading union: Here, two or more countries form a trading club or a union and reduce tariffs on imports of each other ie, when they exchange tariff preferences and concessions.

Free trade union or association: Member countries abolish all tariffs within the union, but maintain their individual tariffs against the rest of the world.

Customs union: countries abolish all tariffs within and adopt a common external tariff against the rest of the world.

Common market: in addition to the customs union, unrestricted movement of all factors of production including labour between the member countries. In the case of European Common Market, once a visa is obtained one can get employed in France or Germany or in any other member country with limited restrictions.

Economic union: The Economic Union is the highest form of economic co-operation. In addition to the common market, there is common currency, common fiscal and monetary policies and exchange rate policies etc. European Union is the example for an Economic Union. Under the European Monetary Union, there is only one currency- the Euro.

At present, out of the total regional trade arrangements FTAs are the most common, accounting for nearly 90 per cent.

 

From Regionalism in a globalizing world: an Asia-Pacific perspective

RTA7

From Asia’s Rise in the New World Trade Order

RTA4

 

From The world’s free trade areas – and all you need to know about them

International trade is a driving force behind economic growth, and two so-called “mega-regional” trade deals are dominating public debate on the issue: the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

But there are around 420 regional trade agreements already in force around the world, according to the World Trade Organization. Although not all are free trade agreements (FTAs), they still shape global trade as we know it.

 Global exports and trade agreements

Image: The Economist

 

What exactly are free trade areas?

The OECD defines a free trade area as a group of “countries within which tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers between the members are generally abolished but with no common trade policy toward non-members”.

The free movement of goods and services, both in the sense of geography and price, is the foundation of these trading agreements. However, tariffs are not necessarily completely abolished for all products.

 

Which are the world’s major free trade areas?

 

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)

 

Free trade between the three member nations, Canada, the US and Mexico, has been in place since January 1994. Although tariffs weren’t fully abolished until 2008, by 2014 total trilateral merchandise trade exceeded US$1.12 trillion.

According to the US government, trade with Canada and Mexico supports more than 140,000 small and medium-size businesses and over 3 million jobs in the US. Gains in Canada are reportedly even higher, with 4.7 million new jobs added since 1993. The country is also the largest exporter of goods to the US.

 US Trade with NAFTA Partner 1993-2012

Image: Congressional Research Service

 

However, the Council on Foreign Relations suggests that the impact on Mexico is harder to assess. Per capita income has not risen as fast as expected; nor has it slowed Mexican emigration to the US. However, farm exports to the US have tripled since 1994, and the cost of goods in Mexico has declined. The cost of basic household goods has halved since NAFTA came into force, according to estimates by GEA, a Mexican economic consulting firm.

 

Association of Southeast Asian Nations Free Trade Area (AFTA)

 

The AFTA was signed in January 1992 in Singapore. The original members were Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Four countries have subsequently joined: Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia.

The bloc has largely removed all export and import duties on items traded between the nations. It has also entered into agreements with a number of other nations, including China, eliminating tariffs on around 90% of imported goods.

 The ASEAN AFTA

Image: ASEAN Briefing

 

The AFTA nations had a combined GDP of US$2.3 trillion in 2012, and they’re home to 600 million people. The agreement has therefore helped to dramatically reduce the cost of trade for a huge number of businesses and people.

 

Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR)

 

Although MERCOSUR was envisaged as a Latin American single market, enabling the free movement of people, goods, capitals and services, this vision is yet to become reality. Internal disputes have slowed progress towards removing tariffs and the free movement of people and goods.

But MERCOSUR is still one of the world’s leading economic blocs, and has a major influence on South American trade and the global economy.

 

Common Market of Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA)

 

Formed in December 1994, the organization aims to develop natural and human resources to benefit the region’s population. Its primary focus, according to the United Nations, is to establish a large economic and unit to overcome barriers to trade.

With 19 member states, and an annual export bill in excess of $80 billion, the organization is a significant market place, both within Africa and globally.

 COMESA Member States

Image: United Nations

 

COMESA utlimately aims to remove all barriers to intra-regional trade, starting with preferential tariffs and working towards a tariff-free common market and economic union.

 

What about the European Union?

 

The EU is a single market, which is similar to a free trade area in that it has no tariffs, quotas or taxes on trade; but a single market allows the free movement of goods, services, capital and people.

The EU strives to remove non-tariff barriers to trade by applying the same rules and regulations to all of its member states. The region-wide regulations on everything from working hours to packaging are an attempt to create a level playing field. This is not necessarily the case in a free trade area.

 The European Union

Image: BBC

 

The creation of the single market was a slow process. In 1957, the Treaty of Rome established the European Economic Community (EEC) or Common Market. However, it was not until 1986 that the Single European Act was signed. This treaty formed the basis of the single market as we know it, as it aimed to establish the free-flow of trade across EU borders. By 1993 this process was largely complete, although work on a single market for services is still ongoing.

Today, the EU is the world’s largest economy, and the biggest exporter and importer. The EU itself has free trade agreements with other nations, including South Korea, Mexico and South Africa.

 The State of EU Trade

Image: European Union

 

What about the TPP and TTIP?

 

Once fully ratified, the Trans-Pacific Partnership is set to become the world’s largest trade agreement. The TPP already covers 40% of global GDP, and trade between member nations is already significant.

However, by removing tariffs and other barriers to trade, the agreement hopes to further develop economic ties and boost economic growth.

 The Trans-Pacific Trade Deal

Image: Reuters

 

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership is a deal currently being negotiated between the EU and the US. If reached, it would itself become the world’s largest trade agreement – covering 45% of global GDP.

Like the TPP, it aims to cut tariffs and regulatory barriers to trade. Among these is the removal of customs duties, according to the EU’s negotiation factsheet.

The Center for Economic Policy Research has estimated that the deal would be worth $134 billion a year for the EU and $107 billion for the US – although opponents have disputed these figures.

 Transatlantic Negotiations

Image: Brookings

As the World Economic Forum’s E15 Initiative has highlighted, effective global trade is central to economic growth and development. Trade agreements are an integral part of making this a reality.

From Regional Trade Agreements and the Multi-polar Global Order:
Implications for South Korea’s Economy

RTA2RTA3

From Regional Trade Agreements and the Multi-polar Global Order:
Implications for South Korea’s Economy

RTA

From Regional Trade Agreements: Promoting conflict or building peace?

RTA8

Key Terms:

  • Rising Powers
  • Global Economic Governance
  • Mega-Regionals
  • World Trade Organization (WTO)
  • Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)
  • Transpacific Trade and Investment Partnership (TPP)
  • MFN (Most Favored Nation)
  • PTA (Preferred Trading Agreement)
  • FTA (Free Trade Agreement)
  • RTA (Regional Trade Agreement)
  • MTS (Multi Lateral Trade System)
  • BTA (Bilateral Trade Agreement)
  • Belt and Road Initiative
  • Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP)
  • ASEAN
  • AEC
  • APEC
  • BRICS
  • EU
  • SAARC
  • MERCOSUR
  • Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP)
  • NAFTA
  • ASEAN+3
  • ASEAN+6
  • Custom Unions
  • Common Markets
  • Economic Unions
  • GATT
  • WTO
  • SADC
  • COMESA
  • ECOWAS
  • ECCAS/CEEAC
  • SACU
  • AFTA
  • SAPTA/SAFTA

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

What is Regional Trade Blocs or Free Trade Agreements?

http://www.indianeconomy.net/splclassroom/107/what-is-regional-trade-blocs-or-free-trade-agreements/

 

 

 

The world’s free trade areas – and all you need to know about them

2016

WEF

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/05/world-free-trade-areas-everything-you-need-to-know/

 

Regional trade agreements: Blessing or burden?

Caroline Freund, Emanuel Ornelas

02 June 2010

http://voxeu.org/article/regional-trade-agreements-blessing-or-burden

 

 

 

Regional Trade Agreements: Promoting conflict or building peace?

Oli Brown
Faisal Haq Shaheen
Shaheen Rafi Khan
Moeed Yusuf

October 2005

https://www.iisd.org/pdf/2005/security_rta_conflict.pdf

 

 

 

Regional trade agreements

WTO

https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm

 

A COMPLETE GUIDE TO THE REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS OF THE ASIA-PACIFIC

WRITTEN BY TIM MARTYN
MARCH 2001

http://www.apec.org.au/docs/martyn.pdf

 

 

 

Globalization and the Growth in Free Trade Agreements

SHUJIRO URATA

2002

http://www.wright.edu/~tdung/Globalization_and_FTA.pdf

 

 

 

Regional trade agreements: blessing or burden?

 

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/cp313.pdf

 

 

 

Mexico’s Free Trade Agreements

M. Angeles Villarreal
Specialist in International Trade and Finance

April 25, 2017

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R40784.pdf

 

 

Regional Trade Agreements in a Multilateral Trade Regime: An Overview

Parthapratim Pal

http://www.networkideas.org/feathm/may2004/survey_paper_RTA.pdf

 

 

 

REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATIONS: A Comparative Study of African RTAs

Sannassee R., Boopendra S and Tandrayen Verena

http://sites.uom.ac.mu/wtochair/Conference%20Proceedings/15.pdf

 

 

 

Trade Blocks and the Gravity Model: A Study of Economic Integration among Asian
Developing Countries

E. M. Ekanayake

Amit Mukherjee

Bala Veeramacheneni

http://www.e-jei.org/upload/9180KU76078V3656.pdf

 

 

Free Trade Agreements, the World Trade Organization and Open Trade

Michael SUTTON

http://www.ritsumei.ac.jp/acd/cg/ir/college/bulletin/vol.20-1/04sutton.pdf

 

 

 

REGIONAL TRADE BLOCS THE WAY TO THE FUTURE?

ALEJANDRO FOXLEY

http://carnegieendowment.org/files/regional_trade_blocs.pdf

 

 

 

Regional Trade Agreements and the WTO

Ildikó Virág-Neumann

2009

https://kgk.uni-obuda.hu/sites/default/files/32_Neumann-Virag.pdf

 

 

 

PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENTS AND THE WTO: IMPETUS OR IMPEDIMENT?

Committee on International Trade

Principal Drafters:
Helena Sullivan, Chair
Stuart Shroff
Mark Du
Albert Bloomsbury

THE ASSOCIATION OF THE BAR OF THE CITY OF NEW YORK
42 WEST 44TH STREET, NEW YORK, NY 10036

http://www.nycbar.org/pdf/report/uploads/20071935-PreferentialTradeAgreementsandtheWTO.pdf

 

 

 

Regional Trade Agreements and the Multi-polar Global Order:
Implications for South Korea’s Economy

Dr. Mi Park

http://www.akes.or.kr/eng/papers(2014)/84.full.pdf

 

 

 

Rising Powers in the Global Trading System – China and Mega-Regional Trade Negotiations

Clara Brandi

2016

http://risingpowersproject.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/vol1.1.Clara-Brandi.pdf

 

Asia’s Rise in the New World Trade Order

The Effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements on Asian Countries

Part 2 of the GED Study Series:

Effects of Mega-Regional Trade Agreements

https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/fileadmin/files/BSt/Publikationen/GrauePublikationen/NW_Asia_s_Rise_in_the_New_World_Trade_Order.pdf

 

 

 

 

Regional Trade Agreements: Development Challenges and Policy Options

By Antoni Estevadeordal, Kati Suominen, Christian Volpe Martinicus,
December 2013

 

http://e15initiative.org/publications/regional-trade-agreements-development-challenges-and-policy-options/

http://e15initiative.org/themes/regional-trade-agreements/

 

 

 

Regional Trade Agreements

https://ustr.gov/trade-agreements/wto-multilateral-affairs/wto-issues/regional-trade-agreements

 

 

 

What are mega-regional trade agreements?

WEF

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2014/07/trade-what-are-megaregionals/

 

Regional trade agreements, integration and development

2017

 

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ser_rp2017d1_en.pdf

 

Mega-Regional Trade Agreements and the Future of the WTO

Chad Brown
PIIE

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1758-5899.12391/epdf

https://piie.com/commentary/speeches-papers/mega-regional-trade-agreements-and-future-wto

 

 

CHINA’S NEW REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

Agata Antkiewicz

John Whalley

December 2004

 

http://www.nber.org/papers/w10992.pdf

 

 

CHINA’S REGIONAL AND BILATERAL TRADE AGREEMENTS

Chunding Li Jing

Wang John Whalley

January 2014

 

https://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2006/mekong/pt.pdf

 

 

Currency Unions and Regional Trade Agreements: EMU and EU Effects on Trade

Reuven Glick

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

October 2016

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2016-27.pdf

 

Regionalism in a globalizing world: an Asia-Pacific perspective

Dilip Das

2001

http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/2038/

 

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

 

Types of Cross Border Capital Flows

  • Intra Bank Flows (Intra Firm Transfers)
  • Inter Bank Flows (wholesale Money Markets)
  • International Shadow Banking
  • Euro Dollar Market
  • International Bond and Equity Portfolio Flows

Growth of Capital Flows and FX Reserves

From INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Capitalflows

 

From INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Capital Flows 2

From Stitching together the global financial safety net

Cap Flows 6

 

Decline in Global Trade and Cross Border Capital Flows since 2008

 

From Global Liquidity and Cross-Border Bank Flows

Cap Flows 7

 

US DOLLAR FLOWS – Inter regional Flows

  • Not all dollar flows are from USA.
  • Through Eurodollar Market, firms in many countries are engaged in US Dollar transactions.
  • US Dollar dominates cross border capital flows.

 

From External dimension of monetary policy

Cap Flows 4

 

 

From Economic resilience: a financial perspective

 

Cap Flow 15

 

 

ALL CURRENCIES

From Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

Cap Flows 10

 

Who is Involved in Cross Border Capital Flows

From The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Cap Flows 8

 

Recent Trends in Capital Flows

 

From The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Cap Flows 9

 

Problem of Boundaries

From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Capital Flows 3

Cross Border (International) Capital Flows (Networks) for

  • Intra Bank Flows
  • Inter-bank Lending
  • Debt and Securities Flows
  • International Shadow Banking

Capital Flows are not confined to National Boundaries.

Boundaries for

  • Monetary Policy
  • National Income Accounting
  • National Currencies

Types of Flows

From From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 11

 

A. Round tripping of Capital Flows

From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 12

B. International Debt Issuance by Non Financial Corporates in Emerging Markets

 

From From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 13

From Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage

Cap flow 14

 

From  What does the new face of international financial intermediation mean for emerging market economies?

capflows 16

 

 

From Economic resilience: a financial perspective

 

Cap Flow 16

Please see my other related posts:

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

Currency Credit Networks of International Banks

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Economics of Trade Finance

External Balance sheets of Nations

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Hyun Song Shin

Bank for International Settlements
Keynote speech at seventh conference of
Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics

Basel, 5 September 2014

http://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb39_keynote-rh.pdf

 

 

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

Hyun Song Shin, BIS

Eighth IFC Conference on “Statistical implications of the new financial landscape”
Basel, 8–9 September 2016

http://www.bis.org/ifc/publ/ifcb43_zp_rh.pdf

 

 

 

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

by Stefan Avdjiev, Robert N McCauley and Hyun Song Shin

Monetary and Economic Department

BIS

October 2015

http://www.bis.org/publ/work524.pdf

 

 

 

Global Liquidity and Cross-Border Bank Flows

Eugenio Cerutti (International Monetary Fund)
Stijn Claessens (Federal Reserve Board)
Lev Ratnovski (International Monetary Fund)

Economic Policy
63rd Panel Meeting
Hosted by the De Nederlandsche Bank

Amsterdam, 22-23 April 2016

http://www.economic-policy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Global-liquidity-and-cross-border-bank-flows.pdf

 

 

 

Stitching together the global financial safety net

Edd Denbee, Carsten Jung and Francesco Paternò

Financial Stability Paper No. 36 – February 2016

BOE

http://www.reinventingbrettonwoods.org/sites/default/files/fs_paper36.pdf

 

 

 

Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns

Stefan Advjiev

Bryan Hardy

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Luis Serven

January 2017

http://www.econweb.umd.edu/~kalemli/GrossFlows_jan17_final.pdf

 

 

External dimension of monetary policy

Hyun Song Shin

Remarks at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conference
“Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the post-crisis period”

Washington DC, Friday 13 November 2015

https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp151113.pdf

 

 

 

 

Financial deglobalisation in banking?

Robert N McCauley, Agustín S Bénétrix,
Patrick M McGuire and Goetz von Peter

TEP Working Paper No. 1717

July 2017

http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/2017/tep1717.pdf

 

 

Monetary policy spillovers and currency networks in cross-border bank lending

by Stefan Avdjiev and Előd Takáts
Monetary and Economic Department

March 2016

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2749311

 

 

 

Accounting for global liquidity: reloading the matrix

Hyun Song Shin
Economic Adviser and Head of Research

IMF-IBRN Joint Conference “Transmission of macroprudential and monetary policies across borders”

Washington DC, 19 April 2017

https://www.bis.org/speeches/sp170419.pdf

 

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Maurice Obstfeld
Alan M. Taylor
May 2017

http://econ.sciences-po.fr/sites/default/files/file/w23440.pdf

 

 

 

The Currency Dimension of the Bank Lending Channel in International Monetary Transmission

BIS Working Paper No. 600

Posted: 2 Jan 2017

Előd Takáts

Judit Temesvary

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2891530

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Elod_Takats/publication/311451202_The_Currency_Dimension_of_the_Bank_Lending_Channel_in_International_Monetary_Transmission/links/587dd04808ae9a860ff2723a/The-Currency-Dimension-of-the-Bank-Lending-Channel-in-International-Monetary-Transmission.pdf

 

 

 

The Second Phase of Global Liquidity and Its Impact on Emerging Economies

Hyun Song Shin
Princeton University

November 7, 2013

 

http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/events/2013/november/asia-economic-policy-conference/program/files/The-Second-Phase-of-Global-Liquidity-and-Its-Impact-on-Emerging-Economies.pdf

 

 

 

 

BIS Quarterly Review

September 2017

International banking and financial market developments

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1709.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Three Phases of Global Liquidity

https://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9789812872838-c2.pdf?SGWID=0-0-45-1490720-p177066168

 

 

 

 

The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity

Stefan Avdjiev
Leonardo Gambacorta
Linda S. Goldberg
Stefano Schiaffi

Staff Report No. 819
June 2017

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr819.pdf?la=en

 

 

 

How Do Global Liquidity Phases Manifest Themselves in Asia?

Iwan J. Azis
Asian Development Bank and Cornell University
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton University
August 2013

http://www.iwanazis.com/files/documents/Iwan-Azis-Paper-Shin-Global-Liquidity2013.pdf

 

 

 

 

GLOBAL LIQUIDITY—ISSUES FOR SURVEILLANCE

2014

IMF

http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/031114.pdf

 

 

 

 

The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Stefan Avdjiev, Leonardo Gambacorta, Linda S. Goldberg and Stefano Schiaffi

May 2017

FED NY

 

https://www.chapman.edu/business/_files/faculty-research/2017-conference-presentations/linda-goldberg.pdf

 

 

 

CAPITAL FLOWS AND GLOBAL LIQUIDITY

IMF Note for G20 IFA WG
February 2016

 

http://g20chn.org/English/Documents/Current/201608/P020160811536051676178.pdf

 

 

 

 

Capital Flows, Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity∗

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

March 15, 2012

http://www.igier.unibocconi.it/files/capital_flows_global_liquidity.pdf

 

 

Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

August 28, 2014

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work458.pdf

 

 

The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective

by Claudio Borio, Harold James and Hyun Song Shin

2014

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work457.pdf

 

 

Banks and Cross-Border Capital Flows: Policy Challenges and Regulatory Responses

 

https://www.tcd.ie/policy-institute/assets/pdf/CIEPR_banking_capital_flows_report_Sept12.pdf

 

 

 

Global dollar credit and carry trades: a firm-level analysis

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

August 2015

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work510.pdf

 

 

Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage

by Robert N McCauley, Patrick McGuire and Vladyslav Sushko

2015

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work483.pdf

 

 

 

Global liquidity and procyclicality

Hyun Song Shin

Bank for International Settlements

“The State of Economics, The State of the World” World Bank conference,

8 June 2016

 

http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/710301465395290548/Shin-Son-Shin-Presentation.pdf

 

 

 

 

Economic resilience: a financial perspective

Note submitted to the G20 on 7 November 2016

December 2016

 

http://www.g20.utoronto.ca/2017/2017-Germany-BIS-economic-resilience.pdf

 

 

Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt: How Concerned Should We Be?,

Beltran, Daniel, Keshav Garud, and Aaron Rosenblum (2017).

IFDP Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 2017.

 

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/ifdp-notes/emerging-market-nonfinancial-corporate-debt-how-concerned-should-we-be-20170601.pdf

 

 

 

 

International capital flows and financial vulnerabilities in emerging market economies: analysis and data gaps

By Nikola Tarashev, Stefan Avdjiev and Ben Cohen

Note submitted to the G20 International Financial Architecture Working Group

August 2016

 

https://www.bis.org/publ/othp25.pdf

 

 

 

Recent trends in EME government debt volume and composition

Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: Threat to Financial Stability

Viral Acharya et al
2015

 

 

 

 

 Dollar credit to emerging market economies

Robert N McCauley Patrick McGuire Vladyslav Sushko

2015

 

https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1512e.pdf

 

 

 

 

What does the new face of international financial intermediation mean
for emerging market economies?

Hyun song shin and PhiliP Turner, Bank for International Settlements

2015

 

https://publications.banque-france.fr/sites/default/files/medias/documents/financial-stability-review-19_2015-04.pdf

Production Chain Length and Boundary Crossings in Global Value Chains

Production Chain Length and Boundary Crossings in Global Value Chains

 

From Structure and length of value chains

In a value chain, value is added in sequential production stages and is carried forward from one producer to the next in the form of intermediate inputs. Value chains driven by the fragmentation of production are not an entirely new economic phenomenon, but the increasing reliance on imported intermediate inputs makes value chains global.

According to a 2013 report by the OECD, WTO and UNCTAD for the G-20 Leaders Summit, “Value chains have become a dominant feature of the world economy” (OECD et al., 2013).

Obviously, this dominant feature of the world economy needs measuring and analyzing. Policy-relevant questions include, but are not limited to:

  • what is the contribution of global value chains to economy GDP and employment? how long and complex are value chains?
  • what is the involvement and position of individual industries in global value chains? do multiple border crossings in global value chains really matter?

These and related questions generated a considerable amount of investigations proposing new measures of exports and production to account for global value chains. Some of those were designed to re-calculate trade  flows in value added terms, whereas other provided an approximation of the average length of production process.

A relatively new stream of research focuses on a deep decomposition of value added or final demand ( rather than exports or imports ) into components with varied paths along global value chains and measurements of the length of the related production processes. Consider, for example, a petrochemical plant that generates some value added equal to its output less all intermediate inputs used. We would be interested to know which part of this value added, embodied in the petrochemicals, is used entirely within the domestic economy and which part is exported.

We would also inquire how much of the latter satisfies final demand in partner countries and how much is further used in production and, perhaps, in exports to third countries and so on. We would be interested, in particular, in counting the number of production stages the value added in these petrochemicals passes along the chain before reaching its final user.

 

From Structure and length of value chains

APL

 

 

From Structure and length of value chains

A natural question is whether this method can be applied to the real economy with myriads of products, industries and dozens of partner countries? It can surely be applied if the data on inter-industry transactions are organized in the form of input-output accounts, and the computations are performed in block matrix environment. In fact, the measurement of the number of production stages or the length of production chains has attracted the interest of many input-output economists. The idea of simultaneously counting and weighting the number of inter-industry transactions was formalized by Dietzenbacher et al. (2005). Their “average propagation length” (APL) is the average number of steps it takes an exogenous change in one industry to affect the value of production in another industry. It is the APL concept on which we build the count of the number of production stages from the petrochemical plant to its consumers in our simplified example above. The only difference is that Dietzenbacher et al. (2005), and many authors in the follow-up studies, neglect the completion stage. First applications of the APL concept to measure the length of cross-border production chains appear in Dietzenbacher and Romero (2007) and Inomata (2008), though Oosterhaven and Bouwmeester (2013) warn that the APL should only be used to compare pure interindustry linkages and not to compare different economies or different industries.

Fally (2011, 2012) proposes the recursive definitions of two indices that quantify the “average number of embodied production stages” and the “distance to final demand”.  Miller and Temurshoev (2015), by analogy with Antras et al. (2012), use the logic of the APL and derive the measures of “output upstreamness” and “input downstreamness” that indicate industry relative position with respect to the nal users of outputs and initial producers of inputs. They show that their measures are mathematically equivalent to those of Fally and the well known indicators of, respectively, total forward linkages and total backward linkages. Fally (2012) indicates that the average number of embodied production stages may be split to account for the stages taking place within the domestic economy and abroad. This approach was implemented in OECD (2012), De Backer and Miroudot (2013) and elaborated in Miroudot and Nordstrom (2015).

Ye et al. (2015) generalize previous length and distance indices and propose a consistent accounting system to measure the distance in production networks between producers and consumers at the country, industry and product levels from different economic perspectives. Their “value added propagation length” may be shown to be equal to Fally’s embodied production stages and Miller & Temurshoev’s input downstreamness when aggregated across producing industries.

Finally, Wang et al. (2016) develop a technique of additive decomposition of the average production length. Therefore, they are able to break the value chain into various components and measure the length of production along each component. Their production length index system includes indicators of the average number of domestic, cross-border and foreign production stages. They also propose new participation and production line position indices to clearly identify where a country or industry is in global value chains. Importantly, Wang et al. (2016) clearly distinguish between average production length and average propagation length, and between shallow and deep global value chains.

This paper builds on the technique and ideas of Wang et al. (2016) and the derivation of the weighted average number of border crossings by Muradov (2016). It re-invents a holistic system of analytical indicators of structure and length of value chains. As in Wang et al. (2016), global value chains are treated here within a wider economy context and are juxtaposed with domestic value chains. This enables developing new indices of orientation towards global value chains. The novel deliverables of this paper are believed to include the following. First, all measurements are developed with respect to output rather than value added or final product  flows. This is superior for interpretation and visualization purposes because a directly observable economic variable ( output ) is decomposed in both directions, forwards to the destination and backwards to the origin of value chain. It is also shown that at a disaggregate country-industry level, the measurement of production length is equivalent with respect to value added and output. Second, the decomposition of output builds on a factorization of the Leontief and Ghosh inverse matrices that allows for an explicit count of production stages within each detailed component. Third, the system builds on a refined classication of production stages, including final and primary production stages that are often neglected in similar studies. Fourth, the paper re-designs the average production line position index and proposes new indices of orientation towards global value chains that, hopefully, avoid overemphasizing the length of some unimportant cross-border value chains. Fifth, a new chart is proposed for the visualization of both structure and length of value chains. The chart provides an intuitive graphical interpretation of the GVC participation, orientation and position indices.

It is also worth noting that both Wang et al. (2016) and this paper propose similar methods to estimate the intensity of GVC-related production in partner countries and across borders. This is not possible with previous decomposition systems without explicitly counting the average number of production stages and border crossings.

 

 Key Terms:

  • Average Propagation Length
  • National Boundaries
  • Networks
  • Value Chains
  • Supply Chains
  • Upstreamness
  • Downstreamness
  • Structure of Chains
  • Smile Curves
  • Vertical Specialization
  • Fragmentation of Production
  • Shock Amplifiers
  • Shock Absorbers
  • Production Sharing
  • World Input Output Chains
  • WIOD
  • Counting Boundary Crossings
  • Production Staging
  • Slicing Up Value Chains
  • Mapping Value Chains
  • Geography of Value Chains
  • Spatial Economy

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

Characterizing Global Value Chains

Zhi Wang

Shang-Jin Wei

Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu

GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2016
Background Paper Conference

Beijing, 17-18 March 2016

https://schar.gmu.edu/sites/default/files/faculty-staff/cv/Characterizing_Global_Value_Chains.pdf

 

 

The Great Trade Collapse: Shock Amplifiers and Absorbers in Global Value Chains

Zhengqi Pan

2016

http://gpn.nus.edu.sg/file/Zhengqi%20Pan_GPN2016_008.pdf

 

 

CHARACTERIZING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS:PRODUCTION LENGTH AND UPSTREAMNESS

Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei
Xinding Yu
Kunfu Zhu
March 2017

http://www.nber.org/papers/w23261.pdf

 

 

 

Characterizing Global Value Chains

Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei,
Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu

September 2016

http://cepr.org/sites/default/files/Wang,%20Zhi.pdf

https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/8178.pdf

 

 

MEASURING AND ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF GVCs ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2017

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
2017

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/tcgp-17-01-china-gvcs-complete-for-web-0707.pdf

 

 

 

Global Value Chains

http://www.coris.uniroma1.it/sites/default/files/Lecture%20Global%20Value%20Chains.pdf

 

 

MAPPING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

4-5 December 2012
The OECD Conference Centre, Paris

https://www.oecd.org/dac/aft/MappingGlobalValueChains_web_usb.pdf

 

 

 

Structure and length of value chains

Kirill Muradov

http://www.gws-os.com/downloads/ioworkshop/IO-Workshop-2017_Muradov_abstract.pdf

http://gws-os.com/downloads/ioworkshop/IO-Workshop-2017_Muradov_ppt.pdf

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3054155

 

Production Staging: Measurement and Facts

Thibault Fally

August 2012

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.717.7092&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

TRACING VALUE-ADDED AND DOUBLE COUNTING IN GROSS EXPORTS

Robert Koopman
Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei

November 2012

https://www0.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/faculty/research/pubfiles/5852/w18579.pdf

 

 

 

GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE: TRACING VALUE ADDED IN GLOBAL PRODUCTION CHAINS

Robert Koopman
William Powers
Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei

September 2010

https://www.bea.gov/about/pdf/NBER%20working%20paper_1.pdf

 

 

 

Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows

By Pol Antràs, Davin Chor, Thibault Fally, and Russell Hillberry

2012

http://scholar.harvard.edu/files/antras/files/acfh_published.pdf

http://www.nber.org/papers/w17819.pdf

 

 

 

Using Average Propagation Lengths to Identify Production Chains in the Andalusian Economy

 

https://idus.us.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11441/17372/file_1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

 

 

Production Chains in an Interregional Framework: Identification by Means of Average Propagation Lengths

 2007

 

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0160017607305366

 

 

 

Vertical Integration and Input Flows

Enghin Atalay

Ali Hortaçsu

Chad Syverson

2013

http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/chad.syverson/research/verticalownership.pdf

 

 

 

The Rise of Vertical Specialization Trade

Benjamin Bridgman

January 2010

https://www.bea.gov/papers/pdf/the_rise_of_vertical_specialization_trade_bridgman_benjamin.pdf

 

 

 

THE NATURE AND GROWTH OF VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION IN WORLD TRADE

David Hummels
Jun Ishii
Kei-Mu Yi*

March 1999

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.475.3874&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added

Robert C. Johnson

Guillermo Noguera

First Draft: July 2008
This Draft: June 2009

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.211.9707&rep=rep1&type=pdf

First Draft: July 2008
This Draft: May 2011

http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTRANETTRADE/Resources/Internal-Training/287823-1256848879189/6526508-1283456658475/7370147-1308070299728/7997263-1308070314933/PAPER_4_Johnson_Noguera.pdf

 

 

 

FRAGMENTATION AND TRADE IN VALUE ADDED OVER FOUR DECADES

Robert C. Johnson
Guillermo Noguera

June 2012

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.679.6227&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

Can Vertical Specialization Explain The Growth of World Trade

Kei-Mu Yi

1999

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr96.pdf

 

 

CAN MULTI-STAGE PRODUCTION EXPLAIN THE HOME BIAS IN TRADE?

Kei-Mu Yi

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
June 2008
This revision: November 2008

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2008/wp08-12r.pdf?la=en

 

 

 

Global Value Chains: New Evidence for North Africa

D. Del Prete, G. Giovannetti, E. Marvasi

2016

https://www.disei.unifi.it/upload/sub/pubblicazioni/repec/pdf/wp07_2016.pdf

 

 

 

Slicing Up Global Value Chains

Marcel Timmera Abdul Erumbana Bart Losa
Robert Stehrerb Gaaitzen de Vriesa

Presentation at International Conference on Global Value Chains and
Structural Adjustments,

Tsinghua University, June 25, 2013

http://www.rug.nl/ggdc/docs/session4_timmer.pdf

 

 

 

On the Geography of Global Value Chains

Pol Antràs

Alonso de Gortari

May 24, 2017

https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/antras/files/gvc_ag_latest_draft.pdf

 

 

Counting Borders in Global Value Chains

Posted: 12 Jul 2016

Last revised: 29 Aug 2016

Kirill Muradov

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2808130

 

 

Determinants of country positioning in global value chains

Kirill Muradov

May 2017

https://www.iioa.org/conferences/25th/papers/files/2932_20170627121_Muradov2017_countrypositioninGVC_1.1.pdf

 

 

THE CONSTRUCTION OF WORLD INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES IN THE WIOD PROJECT

ERIK DIETZENBACHERa*, BART LOSa, ROBERT STEHRERb, MARCEL TIMMERa and GAAITZEN DE VRIES

2013

 

https://unstats.un.org/unsd/trade/events/2014/mexico/documents/session6/WIOD%20construction.pdf

 

 

 

 

On the fragmentation of production in the us

Thibault Fally

July 2011

http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2011/Papers/Fally.pdf

http://voxeu.org/article/has-production-become-more-fragmented-international-vs-domestic-perspectives

A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process: An International Input-Output Approach

Inomata, Satoshi

http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Download/Dp/175.html

Output Upstreamness and Input Downstreamness of Industries/Countries in World Production

Ronald E. Miller

Umed Temurshoev

 

Date Written: July 9, 2015

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2700845

Input-Output Calculus of International Trade

Kirill Muradov

 

Date Written: June 1, 2015

Posted: 9 Sep 2015 Last revised: 5 Oct 2015

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2643098

 

 

 

 Made in the World?

S. Miroudot

Hakan Nordstrom

Date Written: September 2015

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2658562

 

 

 

The Average Propagation Length Conflicting Macro, Intra-industry, and Interindustry Conclusions

October 2013
Jan Oosterhaven

Maaike C. Bouwmeester

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258142955_The_Average_Propagation_Length_Conflicting_Macro_Intra-industry_and_Interindustry_Conclusions

 

 

 

Accounting Relations in Bilateral Value Added Trade

Robert Stehrer

May 2013

https://wiiw.ac.at/accounting-relations-in-bilateral-value-added-trade-dlp-3021.pdf

Whither Panama? Constructing a Consistent and Balanced World SUT System including International Trade and Transport Margins

Robert Stehrer

https://wiiw.ac.at/whither-panama-constructing-a-consistent-and-balanced-world-sut-system-including-international-trade-and-transport-margins-dlp-2905.pdf

https://wiiw.ac.at/p-2905.html

Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels

Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Kunfu Zhu

NBER Working Paper No. 19677
Issued in November 2013, Revised in March 2014

http://www.nber.org/papers/w19677

Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains

Ming YE, Bo MENG , and Shang-jin WEI

August 2015

http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Download/Dp/530.html

 

 

 

 FOLLOW THE VALUE ADDED: BILATERAL GROSS EXPORT ACCOUNTING

by Alessandro Borin and Michele Mancini

2015

 

http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2015/2015-1026/en_tema_1026.pdf

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

 

Inter Industry Trade is known as One way Trade.

Intra Industry Trade is known as Two way Trade.

 

Intra Industry Trade (IIT)

  • Can be Intra Firm or Inter Firm (Arms’ Length)
  • Can be Vertical or Horizontal (VIIT and HIIT)

Intra Industry Trade is measured using G-L Index among other indices.

Import and Export of Parts and Components (Intermediate Goods) causes measurement issues of IIT.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Intra-industry trade is defined as the simultaneous export and import of products, which belong to the same statistical product category. According to Kol and Rayment (1989), three types of bilateral trade flows may occur between countries: inter-industry trade, horizontal IIT and vertical IIT. Historically, the international trade between countries has been inter-industry form, which is described as the exchange of products belonging to different industries. Traditional trade models, such as Heckscher-Ohlin model or Ricardian model, have tried to explain this type of trade based on comparative advantage in relative technology and factor endowments. However, a significant portion of the world trade over the last three decades took the form of the intra-industry trade rather than inter-industry trade. As a result, the traditional trade models has been considered to be inadequate in explaining this new trade pattern because in these models there is no reason for developed countries to trade in similar but slightly differentiated goods.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Horizontal IIT has been defined as the exchange of similar goods that are similar in terms of quality but have different characteristics or attributes. The models developed by Dixit and Stiglitz (1977), Lancaster (1980), Krugman (1980, 1981), Helpman (1981), and Helpman and Krugman (1985) explain horizontal IIT by emphasizing the importance of economies of scale, product differentiation, and demand for variety within the setting of monopolistic competition type markets. In these models, IIT in horizontally differentiated goods should be greater, the greater the difference in income differences and relative factor endowments between the trading partners.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

In contrast, vertical IIT represents trade in similar products of different qualities but they are no longer the same in terms unit production costs and factor intensities.5 Falvey (1981) and Falvey and Kierzkowski (1987) have shown that the IIT in vertically differentiated goods occurs because of factor endowment differences across countries. In particular, Falvey and Kierzkowski (1987) suggest that the amount of capital relative to labor used in the production of vertically differentiated good indicates the quality of good. As a consequence, in an open economy, higher- quality products are produced in capital abundant countries whereas lower-quality products are produced in labor abundant countries. This will give rise to intra-industry trade in vertically differentiated goods: the capital abundant country exports higher-quality varieties and labor abundant country exports lower-quality products. The models of vertical IIT predict that the share of vertical IIT will increase as countries’ income and factor endowments diverge.

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Various ways of calculating intra-industry trade have been proposed in the empirical literature, including the Balassa Index, the Grubel-Lloyd (G-L) index, the Aquino index. The most widely used method for computing the IIT is developed by Grubel and Lloyd (1971). However, beside aggregation bias, the traditional G-L index has one major problem often cited in the empirical literature. The unadjusted G-L index is negatively correlated with a large overall trade imbalance. With national trade balances, the level of IIT in a country will be clearly underestimated. To avoid this problem, Grubel and Lloyd (1975) proposed another method to adjust the index by using the relative size of exports and imports of a particular good within an industry as weights.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

iit

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

IIT2IIT3IIT4

 

From:  World Trade Flows Characterization: Unit Values, Trade Types and Price Ranges

 

IIT5

 

 

Key Terms:

  • Intra Industry Trade
  • Inter Industry Trade
  • Horizontal IIT
  • Vertical IIT
  • Ricardo’s Theory of Comparative Advantage
  • Factor Inputs
  • Factor Endowments
  • Factor Prices
  • Heckscher-Ohlin Model of Trade
  • Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
  • Grubel – Lloyd Index
  • Fontagné and Freudenberg index (FF)
  • New Economic Geography (NEG)
  • Spatial Economy
  • UN COMTRADE
  • SITC Codes
  • Balassa Index
  • Acquino Index
  • Bilateral Trade Flows

 

Please see my related posts:

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

Relational Turn in Economic Geography

Understanding Global Value Chains – G20/OECD/WB Initiative

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia:  Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications

Fukunari Kimura

2006

http://www1.doshisha.ac.jp/~ccas/eng/Eseminars/e2007-11b.pdf

 

 

 

The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia

 

Mitsuyo Ando and Fukunari Kimura

 

http://www.nber.org/chapters/c0194.pdf

 

 

“The mechanics of production networks in Southeast Asia: the fragmentation theory approach”

Fukunari Kimura

July 2007

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.600.7481&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

“Fragmentation in East Asia: Further Evidence”

May 2006

Mitsuyo Ando

Fukunari Kimura

http://venus.unive.it/mvolpe/Articolo%204.pdf

 

 

 

Modern International Production and Distribution Networks: the Role of Global Value Chains

Fukunari Kimura

2016

https://www.cepchile.cl/cep/site/artic/20161006/asocfile/20161006141226/presentation_fukunari_kimura.pdf

 

 

 

Two-dimensional Fragmentation in East Asia: Conceptual Framework and Empirics

Fukunari Kimura and Mitsuyo Ando

http://www.computer-services.e.u-tokyo.ac.jp/p/seido/output/Ishikawa/046.pdf

 

 

 

Deepening and Widening of Production Networks in ASEAN

Ayako Obashi

Fukunari Kimura

2016

http://www.eria.org/ERIA-DP-2016-09.pdf

 

Global production sharing and trade patterns in East Asia

Prema-chandra Athukorala

June 2013

http://www.waseda.jp/gsaps/eaui/educational_program/PDF_2/TU_VIROT,%20Ali_Reading2_Global%20Production%20Sharing%20and%20Trade%20Patterns%20in%20East%20Asia.pdf

 

 

 

PRODUCTION SHARING IN EAST ASIA: CHINA’S POSITION, TRADE PATTERN AND TECHNOLOGY UPGRADING

Laike Yang

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationChapters/gdsmdp20152yang_en.pdf

 

 

 

 

International Production Networks:  Contributions of Economics to Policy Making

Fukunari Kimura

2016

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/internationaleconomy/19/0/19_ie2016.03.fk/_pdf

 

 

 

 

Production networks in East Asia: What we know so far

Fukunari Kimura and Ayako Obashi

No. 320
November 2011

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/53625/1/67543923X.pdf

 

Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Kemal Turkcan and Aysegul Ates

2010

 

http://www2.southeastern.edu/orgs/econjournal/index_files/JIGES%20DECEMBER%202009%20TURKCAN%203-10-2010%20Turkcan_Ates_JIGES.pdf

 

 

 

Vertical Intra-Industry Trade: An Empirical Examination of the U.S. Auto-Parts Industry

Kemal TÜRKCAN and Ayşegül ATEŞ

(This version October 2008)

 

http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2008/Papers/Turkcan.pdf

 

 

 

Intra-industry trade, fragmentation and export margins: An empirical examination of sub-regional international trade

Yushi Yoshida

 

https://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=501284

 

 

A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis

WTO

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/wto_unctad12_e.pdf

 

 

 

Intra-Industry Trade between Japan and European Countries: a Closer Look at the Quality Gap in VIIT

Yushi Yoshida, Nuno Carlos Leitão and Horácio Faustino

http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp532008.pdf

 

 

Evolving pattern of intra-industry trade specialization of the new Member States (NMS) of the EU: the case of automotive industry

Elżbieta Kawecka-Wyrzykowska

2008

 

http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/pages/publication14289_en.pdf

 

 

VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND NAFTA PARTNERS

2009

 

http://www.scielo.cl/pdf/rae/v24n1/art02.pdf

 

 

 

Globalizing Production Structure and Intra-Industry Trade: The Case of Turkey

Emine Kılavuz

Hatice Erkekoğlu

Betül Altay Topcu

2013

https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/viewFile/563/pdf

 

 

 

On the Measurement of Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade: A Geometric Exposition

A.K.M. Azhar Robert J.R. Elliott

http://www.ibrarian.net/navon/paper/On_the_Measurement_of_Vertical_and_Horizontal_Int.pdf?paperid=1018522

 

 

 

 Determinants of United States’ Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade

2013

 

https://espace.curtin.edu.au/bitstream/handle/20.500.11937/41590/197560_110710_GEJ_2013.pdf?sequence=2

 

 

 

World Trade Flows Characterization: Unit Values, Trade Types and Price Ranges

Charlotte Emlinger & Sophie Piton

2014

http://www.cepii.fr/PDF_PUB/wp/2014/wp2014-26.pdf

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

 

One of the key source of International Trade statistics is a document published by the UNCTAD since 2013:

Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade

Please see references below to access reports for 2015 and 2016.

 

In 2014, out of USD 18.5 trillion in global trade, about USD 8 trillion was in intermediate goods.

 

From TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS AND SERVICES

Introduction: the international dimension of the exchange of intermediate inputs

1. Trade in intermediate inputs has been steadily growing over the last decade. However, despite the internationalisation of production and the increasing importance of outsourcing and foreign investment, some studies have found little rise in intermediate goods trade as a share of total trade1. More than half of goods trade is however made up of intermediate inputs and trade in services is even more of an intermediate type with about three quarters of trade flows being comprised of intermediate services. Trade in intermediate goods and services thus deserves special attention from trade policymakers and so far few studies have investigated how it differs from trade in consumption goods or services.

2. An intermediate good can be defined as an input to the production process that has itself been produced and, unlike capital, is used up in production3. The difference between intermediate and capital goods lies in the latter entering as a fixed asset in the production process. Like any primary factor (such as labour, land, or natural resources) capital is used but not used up in the production process4. On the contrary, an intermediate good is used, often transformed, and incorporated in the final output. As an input, an intermediate good has itself been produced and is hence defined in contrast to a primary input. As an output, an intermediate good is used to produce other goods (or services) contrary to a final good which is consumed and can be referred to as a “consumption good”.

3. Intermediate inputs are not restricted to material goods; they can also consist of services. Thelatter can be potentially used as an input to any sector of the economy; that is for the production of the same, or other services, as well as manufacturing goods. Symmetrically, manufacturing goods can be potentially used to produce the same, or other manufacturing goods, as well as services.

4. An important question we can ask is how to identify inputs among all goods and services produced in an economy. Many types of goods can be easily distinguished as inputs, when their use excludes them from final consumption. Notable examples include chemical substances, construction materials, or business services. The exact same type of good used as an input to some production process can however be destined to consumption. For instance, oranges can be sold to households as a final good, as well as to a factory as an input for food preparation. Telecommunication services can be sold to individuals or to business services firms as an intermediate input for their output. The United Nations distinguish commodities in each basic heading on the basis of the main end-use (United Nations, 2007). It is however recognized that many commodities that are traded internationally may be put to a variety of uses. Other methodologies involve the use of input-output (I-O) tables to distinguish between intermediate and consumption goods.

5. The importance of intermediate goods and services in the economy and trade is associated with a number of developments in the last decades. Growth and increased sophistication of production has given birth to strategies involving fragmentation and reorganisation of firm’s activities, both in terms of ownership boundaries, as in terms of the location for production. In what follows, the international dimension of the exchange of intermediate goods and services is explored by clarifying terms and concepts as well as the links between trade in intermediate inputs and FDI.

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter8

 

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter2

 From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter3

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter4

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter5

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter6

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter7

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

Trade networks relating to global value chains have evolved during the last 10 years. In 2004, the East Asian production network was still in its infancy. Most trade flows of parts and components concerned the USA and the European Union, with a number of other countries loosely connected with these two main hubs. As of 2014 trade of parts and components was much more developed. The current state is characterized not only by the prominent role of China, but also by a much more tightly integrated network with a much larger number of countries many of which have multiple connections to different hubs.

From Mapping Global Value Chains: Intermediate Goods Trade and Structural Change in the World Economy

inter10inter11inter12

Key sources of Research:

 

TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS AND SERVICES

OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No. 93
by Sébastien Miroudot, Rainer Lanz and Alexandros Ragoussis

2009

https://www.oecd.org/trade/its/44056524.pdf

 

 

An Essay on Intra-Industry Trade in Intermediate Goods

Rosanna Pittiglio

2014

http://file.scirp.org/pdf/ME_2014051916452646.pdf

 

 

The Rise of International Supply Chains: Implications for Global Trade

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/GETR/2012/GETR_Chapter1.2.pdf

 

 

 

Growing Trade in Intermediate Goods: Outsourcing, Global Sourcing or Increasing
Importance of MNE Networks?

by
Jörn Kleinert
October 2000

https://www.ifw-kiel.de/ifw_members/publications/growing-trade-in-intermediate-goods-outsourcing-global-sourcing-or-increasing-importance-of-mne-networks/kap1006.pdf

 

 

 

Imported Inputs and the Gains from Trade

Ananth Ramanarayanan
University of Western Ontario
September, 2014

https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/index.php/index/research/downloadSeminarPaper/49816

 

 

 

Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditctab2015d1_en.pdf

 

 

 

Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2016

Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ditctab2016d3_en.pdf

 

 

Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy

Robert C. Feenstra
Revised, April 1998

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.39.7178&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY

OECD, WTO and World Bank Group
Report prepared for submission to the G20 Trade Ministers Meeting Sydney, Australia, 19 July 2014

https://www.oecd.org/tad/gvc_report_g20_july_2014.pdf

 

 

Trade in Value Added: Concepts, Estimation and Analysis

Marko Javorsek* and Ignacio Camacho

20015

http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/AWP150Trade%20in%20Value%20Added.pdf

 

 

The Similarities and Differences among Three Major Inter-Country Input-Output Databases and their Implications for Trade in Value-Added Estimates

Lin Jones and Zhi Wang, United States International Trade Commission Li Xin, Beijing Normal University and Peking University Christophe Degain, World Trade Organization

December, 2014

https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/ec201412b.pdf

 

 

Advanced Topics in Trade
Lecture 9 – Multinational Firms and Foreign Direct Investment

Heiwai Tang – SAIS
April 8, 2015

http://www.hwtang.com/uploads/3/0/7/2/3072318/lecture_8_new.pdf

 

 

Efforts to Measure Trade in Value-Added and Map Global Value Chains: A Guide

Andrew Reamer

May 29, 2014

https://gwipp.gwu.edu/files/downloads/Reamer_ISA_Trade_in_Value_Added_05-29-2014.pdf

 

 

 

Global Value Chains for Value Added and Intermediate Goods in Asia

N Shrestha

20015

http://www.econ.ynu.ac.jp/cessa/publication/pdf/CESSA%20WP%202015-07.pdf

 

 

 

Global Value Chains: The New Reality of International Trade

Sherry Stephenson
December 2013

http://e15initiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/E15-GVCs-Stephenson-Final.pdf

 

 

Asia and Global Production Networks Implications for Trade, Incomes and Economic Vulnerability

Benno Ferrarini

David Hummels

20014

https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/149221/asia-and-global-production-networks.pdf

 

 

Participation of Developing Countries in Global Value Chains:
Implications for Trade and Trade-Related Policies

by
Przemyslaw Kowalski, Javier Lopez Gonzalez, Alexandros Ragoussis
and Cristian Ugarte

https://www.die-gdi.de/uploads/media/OECD_Trade_Policy_Papers_179.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: SURVEYING DRIVERS, MEASURES AND IMPACTS

João Amador
Sónia Cabral

2014

https://www.bportugal.pt/sites/default/files/anexos/papers/wp20143.pdf

 

World Intermediate goods Exports By Country and Region

2014

WITS World International Trade Statistics

http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/WLD/Year/2014/TradeFlow/Export/Partner/all/Product/UNCTAD-SoP2

 

 

Trade in global value chains

2013

WTO

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2013_e/its13_highlights4_e.pdf

 

 

The Rise of Trade in Intermediates: Policy Implications

  • February 10, 2011

http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/02/10/rise-of-trade-in-intermediates-policy-implications-pub-42578

 

 

International trade with intermediate and final goods under economic crisis

Elżbieta Czarny, Warsaw School of Economics
Paweł Folfas, Warsaw School of Economics
Katarzyna Śledziewska, Warsaw University

http://www.etsg.org/ETSG2012/Programme/Papers/375.pdf

 

 

 

Trade in Intermediate Goods: Implications for Productivity and Welfare in Korea

Young Gui Kim

Hak K. PYO

Date Written: December 30, 2016

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2929118

 

 

Growing Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico

BY CHRISTOPHER WILSON

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/growing_together_economic_ties_between_the_united_states_and_mexico.pdf

 

 

Mapping Global Value Chains: Intermediate Goods Trade and Structural Change in the World Economy

Timothy J. Sturgeon
Olga Memedovic

https://www.unido.org/fileadmin/user_media/Publications/Research_and_statistics/Branch_publications/Research_and_Policy/Files/Working_Papers/2010/WP%2005%20Mapping%20Glocal%20Value%20Chains.pdf

 

India’s Intermediate Goods Trade in the Inter Regional Value Chain:
An examination based on Trade data and Input Output Analysis

Simi Thambi

https://www.jsie.jp/Annual_Meeting/2013f_Yokohoma_n_Univ/pdf/10_2%20fp.pdf

 

Global Supply Chains

https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/pub4253_2.pdf

 

 

Global value chains in a changing world

Edited by Deborah K. Elms and Patrick Low

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/aid4tradeglobalvalue13_e.pdf