Competition, Concentration, and Anti-Trust Laws in the USA

Competition, Concentration, and Anti-Trust Laws in the USA

 

Currently the US FTC has been having hearings on concentration, competition, and anti-trust laws in the USA.  Several conferences are organized starting with September 2018.  I present links to hearings details and videos of the sessions.  As of now, two hearings have already taken place.  I have given the links to the third hearing below.  Economists Joe Stiglitz and Jason Furman have given speeches and presentations during first and second hearings.

Key Sources of Research:

Hearings on Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century

Hearings on Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century

The Federal Trade Commission will hold a series of public hearings during the fall and winter 2018 examining whether broad-based changes in the economy, evolving business practices, new technologies, or international developments might require adjustments to competition and consumer protection law, enforcement priorities, and policy. The PDF version of this content includes footnotes and sources. All the hearings will be webcast live.

 

https://www.ftc.gov/policy/hearings-competition-consumer-protection

https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/attachments/hearings-competition-consumer-protection-21st-century/hearings-announcement_0.pdf

 

 

Hearings on Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century: Opening Session

September 14, 2018

DAVIS POLK

 

https://www.davispolk.com/files/2018-09-14_hearings_on_competition_consumer_protection_in_21st_century.pdf

 

 

FTC Hearing #1: Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century

Hearing #1 On Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century, September 13-14, 2018

 

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/events-calendar/2018/09/ftc-hearing-1-competition-consumer-protection-21st-century

https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_events/1398386/agenda-hearings-georgetown_3.pdf

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/audio-video/video/competition-consumer-protection-21st-century-welcome-session-1

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/audio-video/video/competition-consumer-protection-21st-century-welcome-session-2

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/audio-video/video/competition-consumer-protection-21st-century-welcome-session-3

 

 

 

 

FTC Hearing #2: Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century

FTC Hearing #2: Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century

 

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/press-releases/2018/09/ftc-announces-second-session-hearings-competition-consumer

https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_events/1408208/hearings-agenda-cc-sept_0.pdf

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/audio-video/video/ftc-hearing-2-competition-consumer-protection-21st-century-state-us-0

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/audio-video/video/ftc-hearing-2-competition-consumer-protection-21st-century-state-us

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/audio-video/video/ftc-hearing-2-competition-consumer-protection-21st-century-monopsony

 

FTC Hearing #3: Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century

FTC Hearing #3: Competition and Consumer Protection in the 21st Century - George Mason University

 

https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/events-calendar/2018/10/ftc-hearing-3-competition-consumer-protection-21st-century

 https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_events/1413712/hearings-agenda-gmu_5.pdf

THE UNITED STATES HAS A MARKET CONCENTRATION PROBLEM

REVIEWING CONCENTRATION ESTIMATES IN ANTITRUST MARKETS, 2000-PRESENT

 

ISSUE BRIEF BY ADIL ABDELA AND MARSHALL STEINBAUM

SEPTEMBER 2018

 

https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_comments/2018/09/ftc-2018-0074-d-0042-155544.pdf

 

Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz says the US has a major monopoly problem

https://www.businessinsider.com/joseph-stiglitz-says-the-us-has-a-major-monopoly-problem-2018-9

 

 

Competition Conference 2018

What’s the Evidence for Strengthening Competition Policy?

Boston University

http://sites.bu.edu/tpri/news-and-events/competition-conference-2018/

http://sites.bu.edu/tpri/competition-conference-2018-program-and-papers/

 

Slower Productivity and Higher Inequality: Are They Related?

Jason Furman and Peter Orszag

June 2018

 

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/wp18-4.pdf

 

 

 

Market Power and Monetary Policy

Speech given by

Andrew G Haldane Chief Economist Bank of England

Co-authors: Tommaso Aquilante, Shiv Chowla, Nikola Dacic, Riccardo Masolo, Patrick Schneider, Martin Seneca and Srdan Tatomir.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Policy Symposium Jackson Hole, Wyoming

24 August 2018

 

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2018/market-power-and-monetary-policy-speech-by-andy-haldane.pdf?la=en&hash=ECC7B63705847EC5E68DEFC86C56B887B9DBD0CD

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Concentration, Investment, and Growth

Concentration, Investment, and Growth

 

Recent Economic Policy Symposium at Jackson Hole Wyoming (August 23-25) where economists, central bankers, policy makers gather together annually discussed issues of Rising Market Concentration, Declining Business Investments, and Declining Economic Dynamism.

2018 Economic Policy Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming

https://www.kansascityfed.org/publications/research/escp/symposiums/escp-2018

 

 

Richmond Federal Reserve Bank published an article on Market Concentration.

Are Markets Too Concentrated?

Industries are increasingly concentrated in the hands of fewer firms. But is that a bad thing?

 

https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2018/q1/pdf/cover_story.pdf

https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/richmondfedorg/publications/research/econ_focus/2018/q1/pdf/full_issue.pdf

 

 

Washington Post published a story on market concentration in US companies.

Are U.S. Companies Too Big and Powerful? The Fed Wants to Know

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/are-us-companies-too-big-and-powerful-the-fed-wants-to-know/2018/08/23/35891356-a6b0-11e8-ad6f-080770dcddc2_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.9cb83dadde89

 

Please see my related posts

Rising Market Concentration and Declining Business Investments in the USA – Update June 2018

Shareholder Capitalism: Rising Market Concentration, Slower Productivity Growth, Rising Inequality, Rising Profits, and Rising Equities Markets

 

Towards the Circular Economy

Towards the Circular Economy

 

 

Circular Economy in reuse of

  • Metals
  • Plastics
  • Paper and Paper Board
  • Glass
  • Rubber
  • Wood/Timber/Construction Composites
  • Textiles
  • Organic Waste/Food/Agricultural/Biological

 

 

CIRCULAR ECONOMY: THE NEW NORMAL?

Key points

  • Keeping materials longer in the economy through reuse, re-purposing or recycling could reduce 33 per cent of the carbon dioxide emissions embedded in products.
  • Circularity requires a significant bridge between trade in goods and trade in services.
  • Increased recycling could reduce demand for primary resources, leading to both risks and opportunities in developing countries dependent on the extraction of natural resources.

 

CIRCULAR ECONOMY: THE NEW NORMAL?

Linear production is a familiar cycle. Resources are extracted and transformed into goods and services, sold and used, after which they are scrapped. This model has underpinned the expansion of the global economy since the industrial revolution.

It has linked material prosperity to the extraction of resources, yet has often overlooked the undue pressures placed on the environment and has rarely considered the cost of handling, scrapping and disposing of used materials, some of which are hazardous to human health. As the global population increases, incomes rise and nations strive to eradicate poverty, demand for goods and services will necessarily grow. The aim of achieving Sustainable Development Goal 12 on responsible consumption and production requires changing the linear production model. The concept of a circular economy and practice therefore merits close attention, as it can open new opportunities for trade and job creation, contribute to climate change mitigation and help reduce the costs of cleaning and scrapping in both developed and developing countries.

A circular economy entails markets that give incentives to reusing products, rather than scrapping them and then extracting new resources. In such an economy, all forms of waste, such as clothes, scrap metal and obsolete electronics, are returned to the economy or used more efficiently. This can provide a way to not only protect the environment, but use natural resources more wisely, develop new sectors, create jobs and develop new capabilities.

Each year, 1.3 billion tons of garbage are produced by 3 billion urban residents.1 This is the end point of a linear economic flow that starts with manufacturing, which uses 54 per cent of the world’s delivered energy, especially in energy-intensive industries such as petrochemicals, cement, metals and paper.2 Each year, 322 million tons of plastic, 240 million tons of paper and 59 million tons of aluminium are produced in the world, much of which goes to export markets and is not recycled.3

A rusty container or an obsolete mobile telephone are only two examples of the many products that end up being discarded, along with their transistors, metal structures and complex plastics. Each component requires a great deal of energy, time, land and capital to be produced and, even as the products become obsolete, their components often do not. The potential value of metals and plastics currently lost in electronic waste may be €55 billion annually.4

As the supply of recycled, reused and re-manufactured products increases, such products are maintained for longer in the economy, avoiding their loss to landfills. Food losses could be halved through food- sharing and discounting models that reduce fresh food waste. Access to efficient home appliances could be increased through leasing instead of sales. Organic waste could be recovered or transformed into high-value protein through the production of insect larvae.

Benefits such as these could be gained by both developed and developing countries; the potential economic gains are estimated at over $1 trillion per year in material cost savings.5 Several economies are already exploring circular strategies, including Brazil, China, India, Kenya, the Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Morocco, South Africa, Turkey, Uruguay, VietNam and the European Union.6 India and the European Union stand to gain savings of $624 billion and €320 billion, respectively.7

The effects of increased recycling on global value chains are an important area for research. For example, a circular model for metals implies an increase in the re-purposing, reuse and recycling of such materials. This can transform end points of the value chain, such as junkyards and dumping sites for metals, into new reprocessing hubs that supply metals to markets. This growth trend in recycling markets may be desirable from an environmental perspective, yet could reduce demand for primary resources, requiring an adjustment in employment, logistics and scal structures in countries dependent on the extraction of natural resources.8 At the same time, growth in the recycling, re-purposing and reuse of materials could support the emergence of regional reprocessing and recycling hubs and open new opportunities for the commodities and manufacturing sectors. Greater circularity could reduce the depreciation of physical capital in the economy, increasing overall wealth in societies. The specific benefits that developing countries could obtain by adopting formal circular economy strategies is a new subject for research, and further studies and data are needed.

 

Circularity can change trade patterns and improve the utilization of idle capacity

Circular models could help countries grow with resources already available in their territories. This may imply a reduction in international trade, yet the 140 million people joining the middle class each year guarantee growth in overall trade.9 Such growth may occur not in goods but in services such as access-over-ownership models.10 In addition, increased circularity can change production patterns, improving asset utilization rates and producing value chains based on recycling and re-manufacturing centres close to where products are used. This could lead to fewer transport-related losses, quicker turnarounds between orders and deliveries, lower levels of carbon dioxide emissions and the creation of jobs that cannot be offshored.

Some countries have trade surpluses in physical goods and others in immaterial services. Trade therefore results in a net transfer of materials from one region to another as seen, for example, in trade patterns between China and the United States. The United States imports many goods from China but does not export nearly as many finished goods in return. However, nearly 3,700 containers of recyclables per day are exported to China; in 2016, such exports amounted to 16.2 million tons of scrap metal, paper and plastics worth $5.2 billion.11

 

Key Terms:

  • Circular Economy
  • Cradle to Cradle
  • Closed Supply Chains
  • Industrial Ecology
  • Reverse Ecology
  • Blue Economy
  • Regenerative Design
  • Performance Economy
  • Natural Capitalism
  • Bio-mimicry
  • Doughnut Economics

 

 

From Input to the European Commission from European EPAs about monitoring progress of the transition towards a circular economy in the European Union

circular3

 

 

Circular Economy System Diagram

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/circular-economy/interactive-diagram

System_diagram_cropped

From INTRODUCTION TO THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY Booklet

circular2

From Towards the Circular Economy: Accelerating the scale-up across global supply chains

circular8

 

Comprehensive Concept of Circular Economy

http://bio-based.eu/graphics/

circular1

From Input to the European Commission from European EPAs about monitoring progress of the transition towards a circular economy in the European Union

Circular4

From Taking the Circular Economy to the City Level

cicular5

Please see my related post:

Resource Flows: Material Flow Accounting (MFA), Life Cycle Analysis (LCA), Input Output Networks and other methods

Stock Flow Consistent Input Output Models (SFCIO)

Stock Flow Consistent Models for Ecological Economics

Jay W. Forrester and System Dynamics

 

Key Sources of Research:

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org

 

 

 

 

INTRODUCTION TO THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Circular economy booklet

 Ellen MacArthur Foundation

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/presentation/e596/5f046f0a12854e0301e8139fce7cddc7f065.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

TOWARDS THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Economic and business rationale for an accelerated transition

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

2013

Volume 1

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/publications/Ellen-MacArthur-Foundation-Towards-the-Circular-Economy-vol.1.pdf

 

 

TOWARDS THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Opportunities for the consumer goods sector

 

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

2013

Volume 2

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/sustainability/pdfs/towards_the_circular_economy.ashx

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/publications/towards-the-circular-economy-vol-2-opportunities-for-the-consumer-goods-sector

 

 

 

TOWARDS THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Accelerating the scale-up across global supply chains

Volume 3

2014

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/publications/Towards-the-circular-economy-volume-3.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Towards the Circular Economy: Accelerating the scale-up across global supply chains

World Economic Forum

Prepared in collaboration with the Ellen MacArthur Foundation and McKinsey & Company

January 2014

 

rethinking value chains to boost resource productivity

https://environnement.brussels/sites/default/files/user_files/2._zils_v03.pdf

 

 

 

Circular Economy in Cities

Evolving the model for a sustainable urban future

WEF

 

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/White_paper_Circular_Economy_in_Cities_report_2018.pdf

Towards a circular economy: A zero waste programme for Europe

DG Environment

Minsk, 8 October 2014

 

https://www.oecd.org/env/outreach/EC-Circular-econonomy.pdf

 

 

 

 

Transitioning IKEA Towards a Circular Economy: A Backcasting Approach

Claudia Szerakowski

Master’s Thesis in Industrial Ecology

 

http://publications.lib.chalmers.se/records/fulltext/252505/252505.pdf

 

 

 

 

Circular Economy Industry Roundtable:

 

 

 

Sustainable Supply Chain Management and the transition towards a Circular Economy: Evidence and some Applications.

Genovese, Andrea and Acquaye, Adolf and Figueroa, Alejandro and Koh, S.C. Lenny

(2015)

Omega,

https://kar.kent.ac.uk/49202/

 

 

 

Are you ready for the circular economy? The necessity of an integrated approach.

EY

https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-brochure-cas-are-you-ready-for-the-circular-economy/$FILE/EY-brochure-cas-are-you-ready-for-the-circular-economy.pdf

 

 

 

Barriers & Drivers towards a Circular Economy

Literature Review A-140315-R-Final

March 2015

 

https://www.circulairondernemen.nl/uploads/e00e8643951aef8adde612123e824493.pdf

 

The Circular Economy Powered by Cradle to Cradle®

 

http://www.epea.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/The-Circular-Economy-powered-by-Cradle-to-Cradle.pdf

 

 

 

 Towards a Circular Economy

Venkatachalam Anbumozhi Jootae Kim

http://www.eria.org/ERIA_RPR_FY2014_44.pdf

 

 

 

Circular Economy

European Commission

https://skl.se/download/18.a581a5614c5137da1e3076d/1427874379367/Presentation-circular-economy-EU-kommissionen.pdf

 

 

 

CIRCULAR ECONOMY IN CHINA

OPPORTUNITIES FOR COMPANIES

Business Sweden

 

https://www.business-sweden.se/contentassets/c5d6f8e5acc041aca5f7187920559930/circular-economy-in-china.-report-v.1.0_final.pdf

 

 

 

SUPPORTING THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY TRANSITION

THE ROLE OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN THE NETHERLANDS

Oliver Wyman

 

http://www.oliverwyman.com/content/dam/oliver-wyman/v2/publications/2017/sep/CircularEconomy_print.pdf

 

 

 

Transition towards a circular economy: The case of the Metropole region Amsterdam

Jacqueline Cramer

Ambassador Circular Economy

 

https://www.surrey.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2018-02/jacqueline-cramer-lecture-2016.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Circular Economy – a new sustainability paradigm?

Geissdoerfer, Martin1,2†; Savaget, Paulo1; Bocken, Nancy M.P.1,2; Hultink, Erik Jan2

 

https://www.repository.cam.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/1810/261957/The%20Circular%20Economy%20-%20a%20new%20sustainability%20paradigm_accepted%20version.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

 

 

 

A REVIEW OF THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY AND ITS IMPLEMENTATION

 

http://entreprenorskapsforum.se/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/CircularEconomy_webb.pdf

 

SS8: Circular economy and decoupling

https://www.wrforum.org/ss8-circular-economy-and-decoupling/

 

 

 

Input to the European Commission from European EPAs about monitoring progress of the transition towards a circular economy in the European Union

 

May 2017

http://www.pbl.nl/sites/default/files/cms/publicaties/PBL-2017-EPA-network-discussion-paper-monitoring-progress-of-the-circular-economy-in-the-EU_2772.pdf

 

 

 

The European Economy: From a Linear to a Circular Economy

Florin Bonciu

 

http://rjea.ier.ro/sites/rjea.ier.ro/files/articole/RJEA_2014_vol14_no4_art5.pdf

 

 

 

 

THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

A DATA ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF A CIRCULAR ECONOMY ON RESOURCE-DEPENDENT DEVELOPING NATIONS

 

https://hcss.nl/sites/default/files/files/reports/CEO_The%20Circular%20Economy.pdf

 

 

 

The opportunities of a circular economy for Finland

October, 2015

 

https://media.sitra.fi/2017/02/28142449/Selvityksia100.pdf

 

 

 

Circular economy

A review of definitions, processes and impacts

 

https://www.ecologic.eu/sites/files/publication/2017/2809-circular-impacts_0.pdf

 

 

 

CIRCULAR ECONOMY IN INDIA: RETHINKING GROWTH FOR LONG-TERM PROSPERITY

http://eco.nomia.pt/contents/documentacao/circular-economy-in-india-2-dec-2016.pdf

 

 

 

 

GROWTH WITHIN: A CIRCULAR ECONOMY VISION FOR A COMPETITIVE EUROPE

 

https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/Circular%20economy%203.pdf

 

 

 

 

Report on State-of-the-Art Research in the Area of the Circular Economy

 

Sylvie Geisendorf

Felicitas Pietrulla ESCP Europe Campus Berlin

 

http://www.r2piproject.eu/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/report-on-state-of-the-art-research.pdf

 

 

 

A Wider Circle? The Circular Economy in Developing Countries

 

https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/publications/research/2017-12-05-circular-economy-preston-lehne.pdf

 

 

 

 

A safe and just space for humanity

CAN WE LIVE WITHIN THE DOUGHNUT?

Kate Raworth

OXFAM

 

https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/dp-a-safe-and-just-space-for-humanity-130212-en.pdf

https://www.kateraworth.com

 

 

Doughnut Economics: seven ways to think like a 21st century economist

Kate Raworth

http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/newsAndMedia/videoAndAudio/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/player.aspx?id=3938

 

Taking the Circular Economy to the City Level

https://worldcongress2018.iclei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/ICLEI_Webinar_Circular_Economy_Intro.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Mapping the Political Economy of Design

Dr. Joanna Boehnert

Research Fellow
Centre for the Evaluation of Complexity Across the Nexus University of Surrey

 

https://systemic-design.net/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/RSD6-Mapping-the-Political-Economy-of-Design-Boehnert-6.12.17-Final2.pdf

 

 

 

A circular Economy

SITRA

https://www.sitra.fi/en/topics/a-circular-economy/

 

 

 

Rethinking Sustainability in Light of the EU’s New Circular Economy Policy

JULY 03, 2018
HBR

https://hbr.org/2018/07/rethinking-sustainability-in-light-of-the-eus-new-circular-economy-policy

 

 

 

 RE-CIRCLE

Resource Efficiency & Circular Economy Project

OECD

 

http://www.oecd.org/environment/indicators-modelling-outlooks/brochure-recircle-resource-efficiency-and-circular-economy.pdf

 

 

ECONOMICS OF THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY TRANSITION: A CRITICAL REVIEW OF MODELLING APPROACHES –

ENVIRONMENT WORKING PAPER No. 130

by Andrew McCarthy, Rob Dellink, and Ruben Bibas

(OECD)

 

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/af983f9a-en.pdf?expires=1531674000&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=1108F9A93394F591184369F48C2F5D4C

 

 

 

 

COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS

A European Strategy for Plastics in a Circular Economy

EU

 

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/circular-economy/pdf/plastics-strategy.pdf

 

 

 

The New Plastics Economy

Rethinking the future of plastics

WEF

 

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_The_New_Plastics_Economy.pdf

 

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/business%20functions/sustainability%20and%20resource%20productivity/our%20insights/rethinking%20future%20of%20plastics/the%20new%20plastics%20economy.ashx

 

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/publications/NPEC-Hybrid_English_22-11-17_Digital.pdf

 

 

 

SCALING RECYCLED PLASTICS ACROSS INDUSTRIES

MARCH 2017

RESEARCHED BY JOS VLUGTER,
MSC CANDIDATE, STRATEGIC PRODUCT DESIGN, DELFT UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

 

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/ce100/Scaling-Recycled-Plastics-across-Industries.pdf

 

 

 

 

CIRCULAR ECONOMY: THE NEW NORMAL?

UNCTAD

May 2018

 

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/presspb2017d10_en.pdf

 

 

 

 

The circular economy: Moving from theory to practice

McKinsey Center for Business and Environment Special edition,

October 2016

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Sustainability%20and%20Resource%20Productivity/Our%20Insights/The%20circular%20economy%20Moving%20from%20theory%20to%20practice/The%20circular%20economy%20Moving%20from%20theory%20to%20practice.ashx

 

 

 

 

Renewable materials in the Circular Economy

April 2018

 

https://www.ivl.se/download/18.2aa2697816097278807e8a5/1523522038883/C296.pdf

 

 

 

A Review of the Circular Economy and its Implementation

Almas Heshmati

Sogang University and IZA

 

http://ftp.iza.org/dp9611.pdf

 

 

 

Rethinking finance in Rethinking nance in a circular economy

Financial implications of circular business models

ING

 

https://www.ingwb.com/media/1149417/ing-rethinking-finance-in-a-circular-economy-may-2015.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

The Circular Economy in International Trade

UNCTAD

2016

http://unctad.org/en/pages/newsdetails.aspx?OriginalVersionID=1400

 

 

 

 

Circular economy:
a commentary from the perspectives of the natural and social sciences

https://www.easac.eu/fileadmin/PDF_s/reports_statements/EASAC_Circular_Economy_Web.pdf

 

 

 

 

Circular by design

Products in the circular economy

https://circulareconomy.europa.eu/platform/sites/default/files/circular_by_design_-_products_in_the_circular_economy.pdf

 

 

 

GROWTH WITHIN:

A CIRCULAR ECONOMY VISION FOR A COMPETITIVE EUROPE

Ellen MacArthur Foundation

 

https://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/assets/downloads/publications/EllenMacArthurFoundation_Growth-Within_July15.pdf

Shareholder Capitalism: Rising Market Concentration, Slower Productivity Growth, Rising Inequality, Rising Profits, and Rising Equities Markets

Shareholder Capitalism: Rising Market Concentration, Slower Productivity Growth, Rising Inequality, Rising Profits, and Rising Equities Markets

 

Public traded companies are always under pressure to show earnings growth and sales revenue growth to enhance shareholder value.

 

How do they do it when markets have matured and economy has slowed?

  • Lower Costs
  • Increase Market Share

 

How do then companies lower their costs?

  • Vertical Mergers and Acquisitions
  • Outsourcing (Sourcing parts and components / Intermediate Goods / Inputs from cross border)
  • Offshoring (Shifting Production cross border)
  • Vertical Integration

 

How do then companies increase their market share?

  • Horizontal Mergers and Acquisitions
  • Cross Border Markets Share (Sales in other countries)

 

In the last thirty years, this is exactly what has happened in US economy.

Macro Trends of increase in Outsourcing/Offshoring, Increase in Market Concentration, Oncrease in Inequality, Increase in Corporate Profits, Rising Equity Prices, Slower Productivity Growth, Lower Interest Rates, Low Labor Share, and Capital Share.

Please see my other posts expanding on these issues.

Please note that these forces are continuing and trends will remain on current trajectory.

 

Key Terms:

  • Stakeholder vs Shareholder Capitalism
  • Short Termism
  • Slow Productivity Growth
  • Rising Market Concentration
  • Rising Profits
  • Rising Equities Market
  • Rising Inequality
  • Dupont Ratio Analysis
  • Financial Planning (Micro – Firm Level)
  • Economic Planning (Macro- Aggregate Level)
  • Quarterly Capitalism

 

From SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM: A SYSTEM IN CRISIS

Our current, highly financialised, form of shareholder capitalism is not just failing to provide new capital for investment, it is actively undermining the ability of listed companies to reinvest their own profits. The stock market has become a vehicle for extracting value from companies, not for injecting it.

No wonder that Andy Haldane, Chief Economist of the Bank of England, recently suggested that shareholder capitalism is ‘eating itself.’1 Corporate governance has become dominated by the need to maximise short-term shareholder returns. At the same time, financial markets have grown more complex, highly intermediated, and similarly shorttermist, with shares increasingly seen as paper assets to be traded rather than long term investments in sound businesses.

This kind of trading is a zero-sum game with no new wealth, let alone social value, created. For one person to win, another must lose – and increasingly, the only real winners appear to be the army of financial intermediaries who control and perpetuate the merry-goround. There is nothing natural or inevitable about the shareholder-owned corporation as it currently exists. Like all economic institutions, it is a product of political and economic choices which can and should be remade if they no longer serve our economy, society, or environment.

Here’s the impact this shareholder model is currently having:
• Economy: Shareholder capitalism is holding back productive investment. Even the Chief Executive of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has admitted that pressure to keep the share price high means corporate leaders are ‘underinvesting in innovation, skilled workforces or essential capital expenditures.’ 2
• Society: Shareholder capitalism is driving inequality. There is growing evidence that attempts to align executive pay with shareholder value are largely responsible for the ballooning of salaries at the top. The prioritisation of shareholder interests has also contributed to a dramatic decline in UK wages relative to profits, helping to explain the failure of ordinary people’s living standards to rise in line with economic growth.
• Environment: Shareholder capitalism helps to drive environmental destruction. It does this by driving risky shortterm behaviour, such as fossil fuel extraction, which ignores long-term environmental risks.

The idea that shareholder capitalism is the most efficient way to mobilise large amounts of capital is no longer tenable.

We need both to create new models of companies, and implement new ways of organising investment that are fit for building an inclusive, equal, and sustainable economy.

Companies should be explicitly accountable to a mission and a set of interests beyond shareholder returns. Equally, investment must provide long-term capital for socially and environmentally useful projects, and damaging forms of speculation must be restricted.

For most people, our economy simply is not working, and the damaging aspects of shareholder capitalism are at least in part responsible. Reforming shareholder capitalism must not be dismissed as too difficult – the crisis is too urgent for that. We can take the first steps towards a better economic model right now. It’s time to act.

 

 

A Crash Course in Dupont Financial Ratio Analysis

 

  • What happens when economic growth slows ?
  • What happens when profit margins decline ?
  • What happens when Sales growth is limited ?
  • What does lead to Mergers and Acquisitions ?
  • What is the impact of Cost of Capital ?
  • What is EVA (Economic Value Added) ?
  • What is impact of Outsourcing/Offshoring on Financial Ratios ?
  • What is impact of Mergers and Acquisitions on Financial Ratios ?
  • What is impact of Stock Buy Backs on Financial Ratios ?
  • What is impact of Dividends on Financial Ratios ?
  • ROS (Return on Sales)
  • ROE (Return on Equities)
  • ROA (Return on Assets)
  • ROIC (Return on Invested Capital)
  • EVA (Economic Value Added)
  • MVA (Market Value Added)

From The DuPont Equation, ROE, ROA, and Growth

The DuPont Equation

The DuPont equation is an expression which breaks return on equity down into three parts: profit margin, asset turnover, and leverage.

Learning Objectives

Explain why splitting the return on equity calculation into its component parts may be helpful to an analyst

Key Takeaways

Key Points

  • By splitting ROE into three parts, companies can more easily understand changes in their returns on equity over time.
  • As profit margin increases, every sale will bring more money to a company’s bottom line, resulting in a higher overall return on equity.
  • As asset turnover increases, a company will generate more sales per asset owned, resulting in a higher overall return on equity.
  • Increased financial leverage will also lead to an increase in return on equity, since using more debt financing brings on higher interest payments, which are tax deductible.

Key Terms

  • competitive advantage: something that places a company or a person above the competition

The DuPont Equation

image

DuPont Model: A flow chart representation of the DuPont Model.

The DuPont equation is an expression which breaks return on equity down into three parts. The name comes from the DuPont Corporation, which created and implemented this formula into their business operations in the 1920s. This formula is known by many other names, including DuPont analysis, DuPont identity, the DuPont model, the DuPont method, or the strategic profit model.

The DuPont Equation: In the DuPont equation, ROE is equal to profit margin multiplied by asset turnover multiplied by financial leverage.

Under DuPont analysis, return on equity is equal to the profit margin multiplied by asset turnover multiplied by financial leverage. By splitting ROE (return on equity) into three parts, companies can more easily understand changes in their ROE over time.

Components of the DuPont Equation: Profit Margin

Profit margin is a measure of profitability. It is an indicator of a company’s pricing strategies and how well the company controls costs. Profit margin is calculated by finding the net profit as a percentage of the total revenue. As one feature of the DuPont equation, if the profit margin of a company increases, every sale will bring more money to a company’s bottom line, resulting in a higher overall return on equity.

Components of the DuPont Equation: Asset Turnover

Asset turnover is a financial ratio that measures how efficiently a company uses its assets to generate sales revenue or sales income for the company. Companies with low profit margins tend to have high asset turnover, while those with high profit margins tend to have low asset turnover. Similar to profit margin, if asset turnover increases, a company will generate more sales per asset owned, once again resulting in a higher overall return on equity.

Components of the DuPont Equation: Financial Leverage

Financial leverage refers to the amount of debt that a company utilizes to finance its operations, as compared with the amount of equity that the company utilizes. As was the case with asset turnover and profit margin, Increased financial leverage will also lead to an increase in return on equity. This is because the increased use of debt as financing will cause a company to have higher interest payments, which are tax deductible. Because dividend payments are not tax deductible, maintaining a high proportion of debt in a company’s capital structure leads to a higher return on equity.

The DuPont Equation in Relation to Industries

The DuPont equation is less useful for some industries, that do not use certain concepts or for which the concepts are less meaningful. On the other hand, some industries may rely on a single factor of the DuPont equation more than others. Thus, the equation allows analysts to determine which of the factors is dominant in relation to a company’s return on equity. For example, certain types of high turnover industries, such as retail stores, may have very low profit margins on sales and relatively low financial leverage. In industries such as these, the measure of asset turnover is much more important.

High margin industries, on the other hand, such as fashion, may derive a substantial portion of their competitive advantage from selling at a higher margin. For high end fashion and other luxury brands, increasing sales without sacrificing margin may be critical. Finally, some industries, such as those in the financial sector, chiefly rely on high leverage to generate an acceptable return on equity. While a high level of leverage could be seen as too risky from some perspectives, DuPont analysis enables third parties to compare that leverage with other financial elements that can determine a company’s return on equity.

ROE and Potential Limitations

Return on equity measures the rate of return on the ownership interest of a business and is irrelevant if earnings are not reinvested or distributed.

Learning Objectives

Calculate a company’s return on equity

Key Takeaways

Key Points

  • Return on equity is an indication of how well a company uses investment funds to generate earnings growth.
  • Returns on equity between 15% and 20% are generally considered to be acceptable.
  • Return on equity is equal to net income (after preferred stock dividends but before common stock dividends) divided by total shareholder equity (excluding preferred shares ).
  • Stock prices are most strongly determined by earnings per share (EPS) as opposed to return on equity.

Key Terms

  • fundamental analysis: An analysis of a business with the goal of financial projections in terms of income statement, financial statements and health, management and competitive advantages, and competitors and markets.

Return On Equity

Return on equity (ROE) measures the rate of return on the ownership interest or shareholders’ equity of the common stock owners. It is a measure of a company’s efficiency at generating profits using the shareholders’ stake of equity in the business. In other words, return on equity is an indication of how well a company uses investment funds to generate earnings growth. It is also commonly used as a target for executive compensation, since ratios such as ROE tend to give management an incentive to perform better. Returns on equity between 15% and 20% are generally considered to be acceptable.

The Formula

Return on equity is equal to net income, after preferred stock dividends but before common stock dividends, divided by total shareholder equity and excluding preferred shares.

Return On Equity: ROE is equal to after-tax net income divided by total shareholder equity.

Expressed as a percentage, return on equity is best used to compare companies in the same industry. The decomposition of return on equity into its various factors presents various ratios useful to companies in fundamental analysis.

ROE Broken Down: This is an expression of return on equity decomposed into its various factors.

The practice of decomposing return on equity is sometimes referred to as the “DuPont System. ”

Potential Limitations of ROE

Just because a high return on equity is calculated does not mean that a company will see immediate benefits. Stock prices are most strongly determined by earnings per share (EPS) as opposed to return on equity. Earnings per share is the amount of earnings per each outstanding share of a company’s stock. EPS is equal to profit divided by the weighted average of common shares.

Earnings Per Share: EPS is equal to profit divided by the weighted average of common shares.

The true benefit of a high return on equity comes from a company’s earnings being reinvested into the business or distributed as a dividend. In fact, return on equity is presumably irrelevant if earnings are not reinvested or distributed.

Assessing Internal Growth and Sustainability

Sustainable– as opposed to internal– growth gives a company a better idea of its growth rate while keeping in line with financial policy.

Learning Objectives

Calculate a company’s internal growth and sustainability ratios

Key Takeaways

Key Points

  • The internal growth rate is a formula for calculating the maximum growth rate a firm can achieve without resorting to external financing.
  • Sustainable growth is defined as the annual percentage of increase in sales that is consistent with a defined financial policy.
  • Another measure of growth, the optimal growth rate, assesses sustainable growth from a total shareholder return creation and profitability perspective, independent of a given financial strategy.

Key Terms

  • retention: The act of retaining; something retained
  • retention ratio: retained earnings divided by net income
  • sustainable growth rate: the optimal growth from a financial perspective assuming a given strategy with clear defined financial frame conditions/ limitations

Internal Growth and Sustainability

The true benefit of a high return on equity arises when retained earnings are reinvested into the company’s operations. Such reinvestment should, in turn, lead to a high rate of growth for the company. The internal growth rate is a formula for calculating maximum growth rate that a firm can achieve without resorting to external financing. It’s essentially the growth that a firm can supply by reinvesting its earnings. This can be described as (retained earnings)/(total assets ), or conceptually as the total amount of internal capital available compared to the current size of the organization.

We find the internal growth rate by dividing net income by the amount of total assets (or finding return on assets ) and subtracting the rate of earnings retention. However, growth is not necessarily favorable. Expansion may strain managers’ capacity to monitor and handle the company’s operations. Therefore, a more commonly used measure is the sustainable growth rate.

Sustainable growth is defined as the annual percentage of increase in sales that is consistent with a defined financial policy, such as target debt to equity ratio, target dividend payout ratio, target profit margin, or target ratio of total assets to net sales.

We find the sustainable growth rate by dividing net income by shareholder equity (or finding return on equity) and subtracting the rate of earnings retention. While the internal growth rate assumes no financing, the sustainable growth rate assumes you will make some use of outside financing that will be consistent with whatever financial policy being followed. In fact, in order to achieve a higher growth rate, the company would have to invest more equity capital, increase its financial leverage, or increase the target profit margin.

Optimal Growth Rate

Another measure of growth, the optimal growth rate, assesses sustainable growth from a total shareholder return creation and profitability perspective, independent of a given financial strategy. The concept of optimal growth rate was originally studied by Martin Handschuh, Hannes Lösch, and Björn Heyden. Their study was based on assessments on the performance of more than 3,500 stock-listed companies with an initial revenue of greater than 250 million Euro globally, across industries, over a period of 12 years from 1997 to 2009.

image

Revenue Growth and Profitability: ROA, ROS and ROE tend to rise with revenue growth to a certain extent.

Due to the span of time included in the study, the authors considered their findings to be, for the most part, independent of specific economic cycles. The study found that return on assets, return on sales and return on equity do in fact rise with increasing revenue growth of between 10% to 25%, and then fall with further increasing revenue growth rates. Furthermore, the authors attributed this profitability increase to the following facts:

  1. Companies with substantial profitability have the opportunity to invest more in additional growth, and
  2. Substantial growth may be a driver for additional profitability, whether by attracting high performing young professionals, providing motivation for current employees, attracting better business partners, or simply leading to more self-confidence.

However, according to the study, growth rates beyond the “profitability maximum” rate could bring about circumstances that reduce overall profitability because of the efforts necessary to handle additional growth (i.e., integrating new staff, controlling quality, etc).

Dividend Payments and Earnings Retention

The dividend payout and retention ratios offer insight into how much of a firm’s profit is distributed to shareholders versus retained.

Learning Objectives

Calculate a company’s dividend payout and retention ratios

Key Takeaways

Key Points

  • Many corporations retain a portion of their earnings and pay the remainder as a dividend.
  • Dividends are usually paid in the form of cash, store credits, or shares in the company.
  • Cash dividends are a form of investment income and are usually taxable to the recipient in the year that they are paid.
  • Dividend payout ratio is the fraction of net income a firm pays to its stockholders in dividends.
  • Retained earnings can be expressed in the retention ratio.

Key Terms

  • stock split: To issue a higher number of new shares to replace old shares. This effectively increases the number of shares outstanding without changing the market capitalization of the company.

Dividend Payments and Earnings Retention

Dividends are payments made by a corporation to its shareholder members. It is the portion of corporate profits paid out to stockholders. On the other hand, retained earnings refers to the portion of net income which is retained by the corporation rather than distributed to its owners as dividends. Similarly, if the corporation takes a loss, then that loss is retained and called variously retained losses, accumulated losses or accumulated deficit. Retained earnings and losses are cumulative from year to year with losses offsetting earnings. Many corporations retain a portion of their earnings and pay the remainder as a dividend.

A dividend is allocated as a fixed amount per share. Therefore, a shareholder receives a dividend in proportion to their shareholding. Retained earnings are shown in the shareholder equity section in the company’s balance sheet –the same as its issued share capital.

Public companies usually pay dividends on a fixed schedule, but may declare a dividend at any time, sometimes called a “special dividend” to distinguish it from the fixed schedule dividends. Dividends are usually paid in the form of cash, store credits (common among retail consumers’ cooperatives), or shares in the company (either newly created shares or existing shares bought in the market). Further, many public companies offer dividend reinvestment plans, which automatically use the cash dividend to purchase additional shares for the shareholder.

Cash dividends (most common) are those paid out in currency, usually via electronic funds transfer or a printed paper check. Such dividends are a form of investment income and are usually taxable to the recipient in the year they are paid. This is the most common method of sharing corporate profits with the shareholders of the company. For each share owned, a declared amount of money is distributed. Thus, if a person owns 100 shares and the cash dividend is $0.50 per share, the holder of the stock will be paid $50. Dividends paid are not classified as an expense but rather a deduction of retained earnings. Dividends paid do not show up on an income statement but do appear on the balance sheet.

image

Example Balance Sheet: Retained earnings can be found on the balance sheet, under the owners’ (or shareholders’) equity section.

Stock dividends are those paid out in the form of additional stock shares of the issuing corporation or another corporation (such as its subsidiary corporation). They are usually issued in proportion to shares owned (for example, for every 100 shares of stock owned, a 5% stock dividend will yield five extra shares). If the payment involves the issue of new shares, it is similar to a stock split in that it increases the total number of shares while lowering the price of each share without changing the market capitalization, or total value, of the shares held.

Dividend Payout and Retention Ratios

Dividend payout ratio is the fraction of net income a firm pays to its stockholders in dividends:

The part of the earnings not paid to investors is left for investment to provide for future earnings growth. These retained earnings can be expressed in the retention ratio. Retention ratio can be found by subtracting the dividend payout ratio from one, or by dividing retained earnings by net income.

Dividend Payout Ratio: The dividend payout ratio is equal to dividend payments divided by net income for the same period.

Relationships between ROA, ROE, and Growth

Return on assets is a component of return on equity, both of which can be used to calculate a company’s rate of growth.

Learning Objectives

Discuss the different uses of the Return on Assets and Return on Assets ratios

Key Takeaways

Key Points

  • Return on equity measures the rate of return on the shareholders ‘ equity of common stockholders.
  • Return on assets shows how profitable a company’s assets are in generating revenue.
  • In other words, return on assets makes up two-thirds of the DuPont equation measuring return on equity.
  • Capital intensity is the term for the amount of fixed or real capital present in relation to other factors of production. Rising capital intensity pushes up the productivity of labor.

Key Terms

  • return on common stockholders’ equity: a fiscal year’s net income (after preferred stock dividends but before common stock dividends) divided by total equity (excluding preferred shares), expressed as a percentage
  • quantitatively: With respect to quantity rather than quality.

Return On Assets Versus Return On Equity

In review, return on equity measures the rate of return on the ownership interest (shareholders’ equity) of common stockholders. Therefore, it shows how well a company uses investment funds to generate earnings growth. Return on assets shows how profitable a company’s assets are in generating revenue. Return on assets is equal to net income divided by total assets.

Return On Assets: Return on assets is equal to net income divided by total assets.

This percentage shows what the company can do with what it has (i.e., how many dollars of earnings they derive from each dollar of assets they control). This is in contrast to return on equity, which measures a firm’s efficiency at generating profits from every unit of shareholders’ equity. Return on assets is, however, a vital component of return on equity, being an indicator of how profitable a company is before leverage is considered. In other words, return on assets makes up two-thirds of the DuPont equation measuring return on equity.

ROA, ROE, and Growth

In terms of growth rates, we use the value known as return on assets to determine a company’s internal growth rate. This is the maximum growth rate a firm can achieve without resorting to external financing. We use the value for return on equity, however, in determining a company’s sustainable growth rate, which is the maximum growth rate a firm can achieve without issuing new equity or changing its debt-to-equity ratio.

Capital Intensity and Growth

Return on assets gives us an indication of the capital intensity of the company. “Capital intensity” is the term for the amount of fixed or real capital present in relation to other factors of production, especially labor. The underlying concept here is how much output can be procured from a given input (assets!). The formula for capital intensity is below:

Capital Intensity=Total AssetsSales

The use of tools and machinery makes labor more effective, so rising capital intensity pushes up the productivity of labor. While companies that require large initial investments will generally have lower return on assets, it is possible that increased productivity will provide a higher growth rate for the company. Capital intensity can be stated quantitatively as the ratio of the total money value of capital equipment to the total potential output. However, when we adjust capital intensity for real market situations, such as the discounting of future cash flows, we find that it is not independent of the distribution of income. In other words, changes in the retention or dividend payout ratios can lead to changes in measured capital intensity.

 

 

1280px-DuPontModelEng.svg

Please see my related posts:

Rising Market Concentration and Declining Business Investments in the USA – Update June 2018

Why do Firms buyback their Shares? Causes and Consequences.

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

Trading Down: NAFTA, TPP, TATIP and Economic Globalization

On Inequality of Wealth and Income – Causes and Consequences

Rising Profits, Rising Inequality, and Rising Industry Concentration in the USA

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments : Update August 2017

Low Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability : Update July 2017

Short term Thinking in Investment Decisions of Businesses and Financial Markets

Mergers and Acquisitions – Long Term Trends and Waves

Business Investments and Low Interest Rates

The Decline in Long Term Real Interest Rates

Low Interest Rates and Banks Profitability: Update – December 2016

 

 Key Sources of Research:

 

 

 

The DuPont Equation, ROE, ROA, and Growth

https://courses.lumenlearning.com/boundless-finance/chapter/the-dupont-equation-roe-roa-and-growth/

 

 

Short-Termism in business: causes, mechanisms and consequences

EY Poland Report

 

https://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY_Poland_Report/%24FILE/Short-termism_raport_EY.pdf

 

 

Shareholders vs Stakeholders Capitalism

Fabian Brandt

Goethe University

Konstantinos Georgiou

University of Pennsylvania

 

https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1002&context=fisch_2016

 

 

Hedrick Smith Speaks to the Community about Who Stole the American Dream.

 

http://nhlabornews.com/2013/10/hedrick-smith-speaks-to-the-community-about-who-stole-the-american-dream/

 

 

Let’s Talk About “Maximizing Shareholder Value”

https://www.pragcap.com/lets-talk-about-maximizing-shareholder-value/

 

 

SHAREHOLDER CAPITALISM: A SYSTEM IN CRISIS

 

New Economics Foundation

 

https://neweconomics.org/uploads/files/NEF_SHAREHOLDER-CAPITALISM_E_latest.pdf

 

 

 

THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT OF SHAREHOLDER VALUE CAPITALISM

 

Mark S. Mizruchi and Howard Kirneldorf

 

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/63d9/191bbc2b82f351633c7379deea7b9ccad0e9.pdf

 

 

Shareholder capitalism on trial

 

By Robert J. Samuelson

 

http://www.law.harvard.edu/programs/corp_gov/MediaMentions/03-19-15_WashingtonPost.pdf

 

 

 

The real business of business

McKinsey

 

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/Corporate%20Finance/MoF/Issue%2053/MoF53_The_real_business_of_business.ashx

 

 

 

Managers and Market Capitalism

 

Rebecca Henderson Karthik Ramanna

HBR

 

https://www.hbs.edu/faculty/conferences/2013-sustainability-and-corporation/Documents/Henderson_Ramanna___Managers_and_Market_Capitalism___March_2013.pdf

 

 

The Embedded Firm: Corporate Governance, Labor, and Finance Capitalism

Peer Zumbansen

Cynthia A. Williams

 

http://digitalcommons.osgoode.yorku.ca/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1056&context=clpe

 

 

 

 

Andrew G Haldane: Who owns a company?

Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane,

Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England,

at the University of Edinburgh Corporate Finance Conference, Edinburgh,

22 May 2015.

 

https://www.bis.org/review/r150811a.pdf

 

 

 

 

Capitalism for the Long Term

MARCH 2011
HBR

The Short Long

 

Speech by
Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability, and Richard Davies

29th Societé Universitaire Europeene de Recherches Financieres Colloquium: New Paradigms in Money and Finance?

Brussels

May 2011

 

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2011/the-short-long-speech-by-andrew-haldane

 

 

 

 

Is short-termism wrecking the economy?

Redefining capitalism

By Eric Beinhocker and Nick Hanauer

Fast finance and slow growth

 

Andy Haldane

http://progressive-policy.net/2015/09/fast-finance-and-slow-growth/

 

Beyond Shareholder Value

The reasons and choices for corporate governance reform

https://www.tuc.org.uk/sites/default/files/BSV.pdf

 

 

AN ECONOMY FOR THE 99%

It’s time to build a human economy that benefits everyone, not just the privileged few

OXFAM

 

https://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bp-economy-for-99-percent-160117-en.pdf

 

 

Short-Termism

By Douglas K. Chia

 

https://www.law.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/microsites/millstein-center/files/10Anniversary/01181_millstein_10th_anniversary_essay_2_chia_v2.pdf

 

 

 

The Future of Finance

THE LSE REPORT

 

http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/assets/documents/paul-woolley-centre/articles-of-general-interest/future-of-finance-chapter-3.pdf

 

 

 

Is Short-Term Behavior Jeopardizing the Future Prosperity of Business?

 

http://www.wlrk.com/docs/IsShortTermBehaviorJeopardizingTheFutureProsperityOfBusiness_CEOStrategicImplications.pdf

 

 

 

 

How Effective Capital Regulation can Help Reduce the Too‐Big‐To‐Fail Problem

Anat Admati

Stanford University

 

http://bankersnewclothes.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/Minn-Fed-combined.pdf

 

 

 

Business School’s Worst Idea: Why the “Maximize Shareholder Value” Theory Is Bogus

Yves Smith

http://evonomics.com/maximize-shareholder-value-theory-yves-smith/

 

 

 

When Shareholder Capitalism Came to Town

The American Prospect

http://prospect.org/article/when-shareholder-capitalism-came-town

 

 

 

Competition Conference 2018

What’s the Evidence for Strengthening Competition Policy?

Boston University

July 2018

http://sites.bu.edu/tpri/competition-conference-2018/

 

 

 

Market Concentration

Issues paper by the Secretariat
6-8 June 2018

This document was prepared by the OECD Secretariat to serve as an issues paper for the hearing on market concentration taking place at the 129th meeting of the OECD Competition Committee on 6-8 June 2018

https://one.oecd.org/document/DAF/COMP/WD(2018)46/en/pdf

 

 

 

 

Monopoly’s New Era

In today’s economy, many industries can’t be analyzed through the lens of competition.

Chazen Global Insights
May 13, 2016

 

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/chazen-global-insights/monopoly-s-new-era

 

 

 

Market power in the U.S. economy today

Washington Center for Equitable Growth

http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/market-power-in-the-u-s-economy-today/

 

 

 

Don’t Panic: A Guide to Claims of Increasing Concentration

Gregory J. Werden

Luke Froeb

 

Date Written: April 5, 2018

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3156912

 

 

 

Market concentration

OECD

http://www.oecd.org/daf/competition/market-concentration.htm

 

 

 

 

A Firm-Level Perspective on the Role of Rents in the Rise in Inequality

Jason Furman Peter Orszag1

October 16, 2015

http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/teaching/FurmanOrszag15.pdf

 

 

 

Do the Productivity Slowdown and the Inequality Increase Have a Common Cause?

Jason Furman (joint work with Peter Orszag)

Peterson Institute for International Economics
Washington, DC
November 9, 2017

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/4-1furman20171109ppt.pdf

 

 

 

Is There a Connection Between Market Concentration and the Rise in Inequality?

https://promarket.org/connection-market-concentration-rise-inequality/

 

 

 

Concentrating on the Fall of the Labor Share

David; Dorn, David; Katz, Lawrence F; Patterson, Christina; Reenen, John Van

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/cbc2/b8d7a989cab4b76e7fe795bf4572dbcdd0bc.pdf

 

 

 

 

Business Investment Spending Slowdown

April 9, 2018

FAS Congressional Research Services

Marc Labonte

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IN10882.pdf

 

 

 

 

Market Power and Inequality: The Antitrust Counterrevolution and Its Discontents

Lina Khan and Sandeep Vaheesan

http://harvardlpr.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/HLP110.pdf

 

 

 

Five Myths about Economic Inequality in America

By Michael D. Tanner
September 7, 2016

 

Cato Institiute

https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/five-myths-about-economic-inequality-america

 

 

 

 

Is the US Public Corporation in Trouble?

Kathleen M. Kahle and René M. Stulz

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.31.3.67

 

 

 

Declining Labor and Capital Shares

Simcha Barkai

http://www.eco.uc3m.es/~mkredler/ReadGr/FeijooOnBarkai17.pdf

 

 

 

Growing Productivity without Growing Wages: The Micro-Level Anatomy of the Aggregate Labor Share Decline

Kehrig, Matthias; Vincent, Nicolas

(2017)

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/161893/1/cesifo1_wp6454.pdf

 

 

 

 

Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S.

Germán Gutiérrez† and Thomas Philippon‡

March 2017

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/faculty-research/sites/faculty-research/files/finance/Macro%20Lunch/IK_Comp_v1.pdf

 

 

 

ACCOUNTING FOR RISING CORPORATE PROFITS: INTANGIBLES OR REGULATORY
RENTS?

James Bessen

Boston University School of Law

November 9, 2016

https://www.bu.edu/law/files/2016/11/Accounting-for-Rising-Corporate-Profits.pdf

 

 

 

 

Kaldor and Piketty’s facts: The rise of monopoly power in the United States

Gauti Eggertsson
Jacob A. Robbins
Ella Getz Wold

Feb 2018

https://equitablegrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/02052018-WP-kaldor-piketty-monopoly-power.pdf

 

 

 

 

Is There an Investment Gap in Advanced Economies? If So, Why?

Robin Döttling

German Gutierrez Gallardo

Thomas Philippon

 

Date Written: July 2017

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3002796

 

 

 

 

Antitrust in a Time of Populism

Professor Carl Shapiro

CRESSE 2017 Heraklion – Crete, Greece

2 July 2017
http://www.cresse.info/uploadfiles/2017_Key_SHAPIRO.pdf

 

 

 

The Incredible Shrinking Universe of Stocks

The Causes and Consequences of Fewer U.S. Equities

Credit Suisse

March 2917

https://www.cmgwealth.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/document_1072753661.pdf

 

 

 

Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S

German Gutierrez Gallardo

Thomas Philippon

 

Date Written: December 2017

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3095586

 

 

 

 

The Fall and Rise of Market Power in Europe

John P. Weche and Achim Wambach

https://ub-madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/44598/1/dp18003.pdf

https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/173383/1/1011811367.pdf

 

 

 

 

On the Formation of Capital and Wealth: IT, Monopoly Power and Rising Inequality

Mordecai Kurz,

Stanford University

2018

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/6564/e50bf8be5c75f1cca2e9e3d4afa4b8b8ac84.pdf

 

 

 

 

Appendix for \Investment-less Growth: An Empirical Investigation”

 

German Gutierrez and Thomas Philippony

March 2018

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/gutierrezappendixfa17bpea.pdf

 

 

 

 

WP 18-4 Slower Productivity and Higher Inequality: Are They Related?

Jason Furman and Peter Orszag

June 2018

PIIE

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/wp18-4.pdf

 

 

 

 

THE FUTURE OF PRODUCTIVITY

OECD

2015

 

https://www.oecd.org/eco/OECD-2015-The-future-of-productivity-book.pdf

 

 

 

 

OECD Study on the Future of Productivity

Video

PIIE

 

 

 

 

 

A productivity perspective on the future of growth

By James Manyika, Jaana Remes, and Jonathan Woetzel
McKinsey
2014

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/employment-and-growth/a-productivity-perspective-on-the-future-of-growth

 

 

 

 

The future of productivity in manufacturing

Anne Green, Terence Hogarth, Erika Kispeter, David Owen

Peter Glover

February 2016

https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/ier/research/strategic_lmi/ier_2016_manufacturing_sector_productivity_report.pdf

 

 

 

 

THE PRODUCTIVITY OUTLOOK: PESSIMISTS VERSUS OPTIMISTS

August 2016

Zia Qureshi
at the Brookings Institution
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/productivity-outlook.pdf

 

 

 

The Slowdown in Productivity Growth: A View from International Trade

Development Issues No. 11

UN

April 2017

https://www.un.org/development/desa/dped/wp-content/uploads/sites/45/publication/dsp_policy_11.pdf

 

 

 

 

Five Puzzles in the Behavior of Productivity, Investment, and Innovation

Robert J. Gordon

NBER

August 2004

http://www.nber.org/papers/w10660

 

 

 

 

AN OECD AGENDA ON ISSUES IN PRODUCTIVITY MEASUREMENT

Paul Schreyer

OECD Statistics Directorate
2016 World KLEMS Conference
Madrid, May 23-24 2016

http://www.worldklems.net/conferences/worldklems2016/worldklems2016_Schreyer_slides.pdf

 

 

 

THE FUTURE OF PRODUCTIVITY

Chiara Criscuolo
Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation OECD

Understanding the Great recession: from micro to macro
Bank of England
London | 24 September 2015

https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/Presentations/Understanding%20the%20recession_230915/CCriscuolo.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Industry 4.0

The future of Productivity and Growth in Manufacturing Industries

BCG

https://www.zvw.de/media.media.72e472fb-1698-4a15-8858-344351c8902f.original.pdf

 

 

 

 

The waning of productivity growth

Raymond Van der Putten

http://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Views/DisplayPublication.aspx?type=document&IdPdf=29178

 

 

The Impact of Robots on Productivity, Employment and Jobs

A positioning paper by the International Federation of Robotics

April 2017

https://ifr.org/img/office/IFR_The_Impact_of_Robots_on_Employment.pdf

 

 

 

 

The fall in productivity growth: causes and implications

Speech given by Silvana Tenreyro, External MPC Member, Bank of England

Peston Lecture Theatre, Queen Mary University of London

15 January 2018

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/speech/2018/the-fall-in-productivity-growth-causes-and-implications

 

 

 

Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and the Economy

Science and Technology Council

Executive Office of the President

December 2016

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/whitehouse.gov/files/images/EMBARGOED%20AI%20Economy%20Report.pdf

 

 

 

 

Long-term growth and productivity projections in advanced countries

Gilbert Cette, Rémy Lecat & Carole Ly-Marin

Working Paper #617

December 2016

Bank of France

http://www.longtermproductivity.com/download/DT617.pdf

 

 

 

ARE WE APPROACHING AN ECONOMIC SINGULARITY?
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND THE FUTURE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH

By
William D. Nordhaus

September 2015

https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d20/d2021.pdf

 

 

 

Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth

Jane Haltmaier

Federal Reseve Bank USA

2013

https://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2013/1072/ifdp1072.pdf

 

 

 

Innovation, research and the UK’s productivity crisis.

Richard Jones

SPERI Paper No. 28

http://speri.dept.shef.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/SPERI-Paper-28-Innovation-research-and-the-UK-productivity-crisis.pdf

 

 

 

Think Like an Enterprise: Why Nations Need Comprehensive Productivity Strategies

BY ROBERT D. ATKINSON

MAY 2016

http://www2.itif.org/2016-think-like-an-enterprise.pdf

 

 

 

Solving the productivity puzzle

By Jaana Remes, James Manyika, Jacques Bughin, Jonathan Woetzel, Jan Mischke, and Mekala Krishnan

McKinsey

Feb 2018

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/meeting-societys-expectations/solving-the-productivity-puzzle

 

 

 

Solving the productivity puzzle: the role of demand and the promise of digitization

DR. JAN MISCHKE

McKinsey Global Institute

May 2018

http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/20180523-MGI_Solving-the-productivity-puzzle_Bruegel.pdf

 

 

Worried about Concentration? Then Worry about Rent-Seeking

By Brink Lindsey and Steven Teles
This article appeared on ProMarket on April 18, 2017.

 

https://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/worried-about-concentration-then-worry-about-rent-seeking

 

 

 

Online platforms, distortion of markets, social impacts and freedom of expression

Oxford Centre for Competition law and policy

22 May 2017

Tim Cowen.

https://www.iicom.org/images/iic/events/regional-local/Europe/20Sep2017/Tim_Cowen_Oxford_Centre_for_Competition_Law_and_Policy_speech_22May2017—updated-21.09.2017.pdf

 

 

 

What’s Behind the Increase in Inequality?

By Eileen Appelbaum*

September 2017

http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/whats-behind-the-increase-in-inequality-2017-09.pdf

 

 

 

A NATIONAL COMPETITION POLICY: UNPACKING THE PROBLEM OF DECLINING COMPETITION AND SETTING PRIORITIES MOVING FORWARD

American Antitrust Institute

September 28, 2016

http://www.antitrustinstitute.org/sites/default/files/AAINatlCompPolicy.pdf

 

 

 

AI and the Economy

Jason Furman
Harvard Kennedy School
Cambridge, MA

Robert Seamans
NYU Stern School of Business
New York, NY

29 May 2018

http://www.nber.org/chapters/c14099.pdf

 

 

 

The United States and Europe: Short-Run Divergence and Long-Run Challenges

Jason Furman
Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers

Remarks at Bruegel
Brussels, Belgium
May 11, 2016

http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/The-United-States-and-Europe-Short-Run-Divergence-and-Long-Run-Challenges-Jason-Furman.pdf

 

 

 

 

Business Investment Spending Slowdown

April 9, 2018

Marc Labonte

CRS Insights

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/IN10882.pdf

 

 

 

 

ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

Together With
THE ANNUAL REPORT
of the
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS

Feb 2016

https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ERP-2016/pdf/ERP-2016.pdf

 

 

Keynote Remarks of Commissioner Terrell McSweeny

Washington Center for Equitable Growth

Making Antitrust Work for the 21st Century

Washington, DC

October 6, 2016
https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/documents/public_statements/988713/mcsweeny_-_keynote_remarks_at_equitable_growth_10-6-16.pdf

 

 

Wal-Mart: A Progressive Success Story

Jason Furman

November 28, 2005

https://www.mackinac.org/archives/2006/walmart.pdf

 

 

“America Without Entrepreneurs: The Consequences of Dwindling Startup Activity”

Testimony before
The Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship
United States Senate
June 29, 2016

John W. Lettieri
Cofounder
& Senior Director for Policy and Strategy
Economic Innovation Group

https://www.sbc.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/0/d/0d8d1a51-ee1d-4f83-b740-515e46e861dc/7F75741C1A2E6182E1A5D21B61D278F3.lettieri-testimony.pdf

 

 

 

 

A reading list on market power, superstar firms, and inequality

BLOG

http://www.beyondthetimes.com/2017/08/16/a-partial-reading-list-on-market-power-superstar-firms-and-inequality/

 

 

 

 

 

Productivity Growth in the Advanced Economies:The Past, the Present, and Lessons for the Futures

Jason Furman

Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers

July 2015

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/docs/20150709_productivity_advanced_economies_piie_slides.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Forms and sources of inequality in the United States

Jason Furman

17 March 2016

VOXEU

 

https://voxeu.org/article/forms-and-sources-inequality-united-states

 

 

 

 

Business Investment in the United States: Facts, Explanations, Puzzles, and Policies

Jason Furman
Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers
Progressive Policy Ins9tute

September 30, 2015

http://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/2015.09.30-Jason-Furman_Business-Investment-in-US-Facts-Explanations-Puzzles-Policies.pdf

 

 

 

 

Can Tax Reform Get Us to 3 Percent Growth?

Jason Furman
Harvard Kennedy School & Peterson Institute for International Economics

New York, NY
November 3, 2017

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/furman20171103ppt.pdf

 

 

 

 

Structural Challenges and Opportunities in the U.S. Economy

Jason Furman
Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers

London School of Economics
November 5, 2014

http://www.lse.ac.uk/assets/richmedia/channels/publicLecturesAndEvents/transcripts/20141105_1830_structuralOpportunitiesUSEconomy_tr.pdf

 

 

Is This Time Different? The Opportunities and Challenges of Artificial Intelligence

Jason Furman
Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers

Remarks at AI Now: The Social and Economic Implications of Artificial Intelligence Technologies in the Near Term
New York University
New York, NY

July 7, 2016

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160707_cea_ai_furman.pdf

 

 

 

 

Rebalancing the U.S. Economy

Jason Furman

http://www.international-economy.com/TIE_Sp15_Furman.pdf

 

 

 

 

Should Policymakers Care Whether Inequality Is Helpful or Harmful For Growth?

Jason Furman

Harvard Kennedy School & Peterson Institute for International Economics
Rethinking Macroeconomic Conference, October 11-12 2017

Preliminary Draft: October 5, 2017

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/furman20171012paper.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

A Political Economy of Oligarchy: Winner-take-all ideology, superstar norms, and the rise of the 1%

Yochai Benkler

September, 2017

http://www.benkler.org/Political%20economy%20of%20oligarchy%2001.pdf

 

 

 

 

Can Trump Overcome Secular Stagnation?
Part One: The Demand Side *

James K. Galbraith

http://www.insightweb.it/web/files/can_trump_overcome_secular_stagnation.pdf

 

 

 

 

The macroeconomic effects of the 2017 tax reform

Robert J. Barro, Harvard University
Jason Furman, Harvard University

March 2018

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/4_barrofurman.pdf

 

 

 

 

A FUTURE THAT WORKS: AUTOMATION, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRODUCTIVITY

McKinsey Global Institute

January 2017

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/Digital%20Disruption/Harnessing%20automation%20for%20a%20future%20that%20works/A-future-that-works-Executive-summary-MGI-January-2017.ashx

 

 

 

A MISSING LINK: THE ROLE OF ANTITRUST LAW IN RECTIFYING EMPLOYER POWER IN OUR HIGH-PROFIT, LOW-WAGE ECONOMY

ISSUE BRIEF BY MARSHALL STEINBAUM

APRIL 2018

http://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Monopsony-issue-brief.pdf

 

 

 

Inclusive Growth

For once, some good news

by jason furman

https://assets1b.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Publication/MIReview/PDF/16-29-MR64.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Outlook for the U.S. Economy and the Policies of the New President

Jason Furman
Senior Fellow, PIIE
Peterson Institute for International Economics |

SNS/SHOF Finance Panel

Stockholm

June 12, 2017

https://www.sns.se/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/furman20170612ppt.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Role of Economists in Economic Policymaking

Jason Furman
Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Arnold C. Harberger Distinguished Lecture on Economic Development
UCLA Burkle Center for International Relations
Los Angeles, CA

April 27, 2017

http://www.washingtonspeakers.com/images/pdfs/furman20170427.pdf

 

 

 

 

Market Concentration – Note by the United States

Hearing on Market Concentration
7 June 2018

OECD

https://www.ftc.gov/system/files/attachments/us-submissions-oecd-other-international-competition-fora/market_concentration_united_states.pdf

http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=DAF/COMP/WD(2018)59&docLanguage=En

 

 

 

 

The fringe economic theory that might get traction in the 2016 campaign

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/02/the-fringe-economic-theory-that-might-get-traction-in-the-2016-campaign/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.77c5e3479485

 

 

 

ACHIEVING INCLUSIVE GROWTH IN THE FACE OF DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION AND THE FUTURE OF WORK

OECD

https://www.g20.org/sites/default/files/documentos_producidos/achieving_inclusive_growth_in_the_face_of_digital_transformation_and_the_future_of_work_oecd_0.pdf

Rising Market Concentration and Declining Business Investments in the USA – Update June 2018

Rising Market Concentration and Declining Business Investments in the USA – Update June 2018

 

Since my last posts in August/September 2017 on the subject of

  • Market Concentration
  • Inequality
  • Market Power
  • Reduced Competition
  • Reduced Dynamism
  • Rising Profits
  • Declining Business Investments

several new studies have been published.  In addition, several important hearings and conferences have been organized by OECD, Brookings Institution, Boston University School of Law. Please see my list of references for details of each one of them.

This topic now is getting good attention in media also.

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) held a major research conference on the “Policy Implications of Sustained Low Productivity Growth” on November 9, 2017. Jeromin Zettelmeyer, PIIE, moderates panel 4, “Wages and Inequality.” Presenters include Jason Furman, Harvard University and PIIE, and Lawrence H. Summers, Harvard University.  I have given the link to Video of the session 4 in the references.

OECD on June 7-8, 2018 held hearings on Market Concentration at Paris, France.  Several presentations were given by experts in the field.  I have given link to the conference webpage in the references.

The Hamilton Project/Brookings Institution had a Conference on June 13, 2018 in Washington DC on the subject of Market Concentration.  Please see the link to the conference video and papers in the references below.

 

 

From The State of Competition and Dynamism:
Facts about Concentration, Start-Ups, and Related Policies

concentration

From The State of Competition and Dynamism:
Facts about Concentration, Start-Ups, and Related Policies

 

concentration2concentration3concentration4concentration5

Please see my related posts:

Rising Profits, Rising Inequality, and Rising Industry Concentration in the USA

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments : Update August 2017

Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, Circular and Cumulative Causation in Economics

Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in Economics

Business Investments and Low Interest Rates

Mergers and Acquisitions – Long Term Trends and Waves

 

Key Sources of Research:

Building a More Dynamic and Competitive Economy

Hamilton Project

Brookings

June 13, 2018

http://www.hamiltonproject.org/events/building_a_more_dynamic_and_competitive_economy

Video of the Opening Remarks and Fireside Chat – Robert Rubin, Jason Furman, Steve Case

The State of Competition and Dynamism:
Facts about Concentration, Start-Ups, and Related Policies

 

Jay Shambaugh, Ryan Nunn, Audrey Breitwieser, and Patrick Liu

Brookings/Hamilton Project

June 2018

 

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ES_THP_20180611_CompetitionFacts_20180611.pdf

 

 

 

Market Concentration

OECD Hearing on Market Concentration

June 7-8, 2018

http://www.oecd.org/daf/competition/market-concentration.htm

 

 

 

Market Concentration Issues paper by the Secretariat

6-8 June 2018

OECD

 

http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=DAF/COMP/WD(2018)46&docLanguage=En

http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=DAF/COMP/WD(2018)67&docLanguage=En

 

 

 

Presented by the Business at OECD (BIAC) Competition Committee to the OECD Competition Committee

Market Concentration

June 7, 2018

 

http://biac.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/BIAC_CC_Market-Concentration_2018-05-22_FINAL1.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Chapter VI

MARKET POWER AND INEQUALITY: THE REVENGE OF THE RENTIERS

Trade and Development Report 2017

UNCTAD

 

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationChapters/tdr2017ch6_en.pdf

 

 

The fall and rise of market power in Europe∗

John P. Wechea,b & Achim Wambacha

 

http://ftp.zew.de/pub/zew-docs/dp/dp18003.pdf

 

 

 

A policy at peace with itself: Antitrust remedies for our concentrated, uncompetitive economy

William A. Galston and Clara Hendrickson

2018

https://www.brookings.edu/research/a-policy-at-peace-with-itself-antitrust-remedies-for-our-concentrated-uncompetitive-economy/

 

 

 

 

The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications

Jan De Loecker, Jan Eeckhout

Issued in August 2017

http://www.nber.org/papers/w23687

 

 

 

 

This chart highlights the rise of corporate giants

WEF

2018

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/06/chart-of-the-week-the-rise-of-corporate-giants

 

 

 

Market power in the U.S. economy today

 

https://equitablegrowth.org/market-power-in-the-u-s-economy-today/

 

 

 

Is Lack of Competition Strangling the U.S. Economy?

David Wessel

https://hbr.org/2018/03/is-lack-of-competition-strangling-the-u-s-economy

 

 

 

Competition Conference 2018

What’s the Evidence for Strengthening Competition Policy?

Boston University

July 2018

http://sites.bu.edu/tpri/news-and-events/competition-conference-2018/

 

 

 

Declining Competition and Investment in the U.S.

Germán Gutiérrez† and Thomas Philippon‡

November 2017

https://www.aeaweb.org/conference/2018/preliminary/paper/iDeysKkh

 

 

Should We Really Care About Inequality?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/videos/should-we-really-care-about-inequality

 

 

 

 

Beyond Antitrust: The Role of Competition Policy in Promoting Inclusive Growth

Jason Furman

Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers

Searle Center Conference on Antitrust Economics and Competition Policy Chicago, IL

September 16, 2016

 

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/20160916_searle_conference_competition_furman_cea.pdf

 

 

POWERLESS: How Lax Antitrust and Concentrated Market Power
Rig the Economy Against American Workers, Consumers, and Communities

Roosvelt Institute

http://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Powerless.pdf

 

 

 

Is Government the Problem or the Solution to U.S. Labor Market Challenges?

Jason Furman

2018

 

https://minneapolisfed.org/~/media/files/institute/conferences/2018-05/furman-slides.pdf?la=en

 

 

 

With Competition in Tatters, the Rip of Inequality widens

 

 

 

THE 2018 JOINT ECONOMIC REPORT

REPORT OF THE JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

ON THE 2018 ECONOMIC REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT

 

https://www.congress.gov/115/crpt/hrpt596/CRPT-115hrpt596.pdf

 

 

 

 

Concentration not competition: the state of UK consumer markets

2017

 

http://www.smf.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Concentration-not-competition.pdf

 

 

 

CORPORATE RENT-SEEKING, MARKET POWER AND INEQUALITY:
TIME FOR A MULTILATERAL TRUST BUSTER?

UNCTAD

May 2018

 

http://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/presspb2018d3_en.pdf

 

 

 

America’s Superstar Companies Are a Drag on Growth

Lack of competition lets them gouge consumers, underpay workers and invest too little.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-01/america-s-superstar-companies-are-a-drag-on-growth

 

 

 

Big Companies Are Getting a Chokehold on the Economy

Even Goldman Sachs is worried that they’re stifling competition, holding down wages and weighing on growth.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-22/big-companies-gaining-monopoly-power-pose-risk-to-u-s-economy

 

 

 

Monopolies May Be Worse for Workers Than for Consumers

There isn’t much evidence that they raise prices, but they do seem to hold down wages.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-12-29/monopolies-may-be-worse-for-workers-than-for-consumers

 

 

 

 

LABOR MARKET CONCENTRATION

José Azar
Ioana Marinescu Marshall I. Steinbaum

2017 December

 

http://www.nber.org/papers/w24147.pdf

 

 

 

 

More and more companies have monopoly power over workers’ wages. That’s killing the economy.

The trend can explain slow growth, “missing” workers, and stagnant salaries.

 

https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2018/4/6/17204808/wages-employers-workers-monopsony-growth-stagnation-inequality

 

Antitrust Remedies for Labor Market Power

Suresh Naidu

Eric A. Posner

E. Glen Weyl

 

Date Written: February 23, 2018

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3129221

 

 

Policy Implications of Sustained Low Productivity Growth – Panel 4

Jason Furman / Larry Summers

Peterson Institute for International Economics

November 2017

https://piie.com/events/policy-implications-sustained-low-productivity-growth

Presentation by jason Furman

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/4-1furman20171109ppt.pdf

Paper by Jason Furman – published June 2018

https://piie.com/system/files/documents/wp18-4.pdf

Panel 4 Video:

 

The Hidden Geometry of Trade Networks

The Hidden Geometry of Trade Networks

 

From The hidden hyperbolic geometry of international trade: World Trade Atlas 1870–2013

Tradenetwork

 

Key Terms:

  • Trade Networks
  • Complex Networks
  • Preferential Attachment
  • Positive Feedback
  • Fractals
  • Power Laws
  • Hyperbolic Geometry
  • Economic Geography
  • Regional Trading Blocks
  • Bilateral Trade
  • Multilateral Trade
  • Free Trade Agreements
  • Metabolism of a City
  • Metabolism of a Nation
  • Metabolism of the World
  • Industrial Ecology
  • Social Ecology
  • Growth and Form

 

 

From The hidden hyperbolic geometry of international trade: World Trade Atlas 1870–2013

Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870–2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channels, are such that the closer countries are in trade space, the greater their chance of becoming connected. The atlas provides us with information regarding the long-term evolution of the international trade system and demonstrates that, in terms of trade, the world is not flat but hyperbolic, as a reflection of its complex architecture. The departure from flatness has been increasing since World War I, meaning that differences in trade distances are growing and trade networks are becoming more hierarchical. Smaller-scale economies are moving away from other countries except for the largest economies; meanwhile those large economies are increasing their chances of becoming connected worldwide. At the same time, Preferential Trade Agreements do not fit in perfectly with natural communities within the trade space and have not necessarily reduced internal trade barriers. We discuss an interpretation in terms of globalization, hierarchization, and localization; three simultaneous forces that shape the international trade system.

From The hidden hyperbolic geometry of international trade: World Trade Atlas 1870–2013

When it comes to international trade, the evidence suggests that we are far from a distance-free world. Distance still matters1 and in many dimensions: cultural, administrative or political, economic, and geographic. This is widely supported by empirical evidence concerning the magnitude of bilateral trade flows. The gravity model of trade2–4, in analogy to Newton’s law of gravitation, accurately predicts that the volume of trade exchanged between two countries increases with their economic sizes and decreases with their geographical separation. The precision of that model improves when it is supplemented with other factors, such as colony–colonizer relationships, a shared common language, or the effects of political borders and a common currency5–7. Despite the success of the gravity model at replicating trade volumes, it performs very poorly at predicting the existence of a trade connection between a given pair of countries8; an obvious limitation that prevents it from explaining the striking regularities observed in the complex architecture of the world trade web9–13. One of the reasons for this flaw is that the gravity model focuses on detached bilateral relationships and so overlooks multilateral trade resistance and other network effects14.

Another drawback of the classical gravity model is that geography is not the only factor that defines distance in international trade. Here, we use a systems approach based on network science methodologies15,16 to propose a gravity model for the existence of significant trade channels between pairs of countries in the world. The gravity model is based on economic sizes and on an effective distance which incorporates different dimensions that affect international trade, not only geography, implicitly encoded on the complex patterns of trade interactions. Our gravity model is based on the connectivity law proposed for complex networks with underlying metric spaces17,18 and it can be represented in a pure geometric approach using a hyperbolic space, which has been conjectured as the natural geometry underlying complex networks19–22. In the hyperbolic trade space, distance combines economic size and effective distance into a sole distance metric, such that the closer countries are in hyperbolic trade space, the greater their chance of becoming connected. We estimate this trade distance from empirical data using adapted statistical inference techniques23,24, which allow us to represent international trade through World Trade Maps (WTMs). These define a coordinate system in which countries are located in relative positions according to the aggregate trade barriers between them. The maps are annual and cover a time span of fourteen decades. The collection as a whole, referred to as the World Trade Atlas 1870–2013, is presented via spatial projections25, Table S5, and trade distance matrices, Table S6. Beyond the obvious advantages of visualization, the World Trade Atlas 1870–2013 significantly increases our understanding of the long-term evolution of the international trade system and helps us to address a number of important and challenging questions. In particular: How far, in terms of trade, have countries traveled in recent history? What role does each country play in the maps and how have those roles evolved over time? Are Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) consistent with natural communities as measured by trade distances? Has the formation of PTAs led to lesser or greater barriers to trade within blocs? Is trade distance becoming increasingly irrelevant?

The answers to these questions can be summarized by asserting that, in terms of trade, the world is not flat; it is hyperbolic. Differences in trade distances are growing and becoming more heterogeneous and hierarchical; at the same time as they define natural trade communities—not fully consistent with PTAs. Countries are becoming more interconnected and clustered into hierarchical trade blocs than ever before.

Please see my related posts:

Networks and Hierarchies

Increasing Returns, Path Dependence, Circular and Cumulative Causation in Economics

Relational Turn in Economic Geography

Boundaries and Networks

Multilevel Approach to Research in Organizations

Regional Trading Blocs and Economic Integration

Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in Economics

Growth and Form in Nature: Power Laws and Fractals

Key Sources of Research:

 

The hidden hyperbolic geometry of international trade: World Trade Atlas 1870–2013

Guillermo García-Pérez  Marián Boguñá, Antoine Allard & M. Ángeles Serrano

2016

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep33441.pdf

 

 

Uncovering the hidden geometry behind metabolic networks

 

Molecular BioSystems · March 2012

 

http://complex.ffn.ub.es/~mbogunya/eotools_files/files/1109.1934.pdf

 

 

The hidden geometry of complex networks

M. ÁNGELES SERRANO

 

http://www.ccs2016.org/uploads/4/8/7/6/48769845/s1_to_pdf.pdf

http://www.crm.cat/en/Activities/Documents/Curs_Intro_networks.pdf

 

 

 

Deciphering the global organization of clustering in real complex networks

Pol Colomer-de-Simo ́n1, M. A ́ ngeles Serrano1, Mariano G. Beiro ́2, J. Ignacio Alvarez-Hamelin2 & Maria ́n Bogun ̃a ́1

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep02517.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Hidden geometric correlations in real multiplex networks

 

Kaj-KoljaKleineberg,1,∗ Mari ́anBogun ̃ ́a,1 M.A ́ngelesSerrano,2,1 andFragkiskosPapadopoulos

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1601.04071.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Emergent Hyperbolic Network Geometry

Ginestra Bianconi1 & Christoph Rahmede

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/srep41974.pdf

 

 

 

 

The geometric nature of weights in real complex networks

 

Antoine Allard1,2, M. A ́ngeles Serrano1,2,3, Guillermo Garc ́ıa-Pe ́rez1,2 & Maria ́n Bogun ̃a ́

https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms14103.pdf

 

 

 

Network Geometry and Complexity

Daan Mulder · Ginestra Bianconi

 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1711.06290.pdf

 

 

 

Multiscale unfolding of real networks by geometric renormalization

 

Guillermo Garc ́ıa-P ́erez,1,2 Mari ́an Bogun ̃ ́a,1,2 and M. A ́ngeles Serrano

 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.00394.pdf

 

 

 

Topology of the World Trade Web

Ma A ́ngeles Serrano and Mari ́an Bogun ̃a ́

 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0301015.pdf

 

 

Patterns of dominant flows in the world trade web

 

M. A ́ngeles Serrano,1 Mari ́an Bogun ̃ ́a,2 and Alessandro Vespignani3,4

 

https://arxiv.org/pdf/0704.1225.pdf

 

 

 

 

Clustering and the hyperbolic geometry of complex networks

Elisabetta Candellero and Nikolaos Fountoulakis

 

https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/sci/statistics/staff/academic-research/candellero/paper8waw14.pdf

 

 

 

 

Hyperbolic Geometry of Complex Networks

 

Dmitri Krioukov, Fragkiskos Papadopoulos, Maksim Kitsak, Amin Vahdat, and Mari ́an Boguna

https://www.caida.org/publications/papers/2010/hyperbolic_geometry_complex/hyperbolic_geometry_complex.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

On Hyperbolic Geometry Structure of Complex Networks

Wenjie Fang

 

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2f68/531c6644768ad78e86843e297fed442769cb.pdf

 

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

 

 

Why Scenarios

  • World is complex (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Ecological)
  • Future is Uncertain (Critical Uncertainties)
  • Weak Signals
  • Forecasts are wrong
  • Predetermined elements ( Structure given, only variables are changing)
  • Possibility vs Probability Space
  • Scenarios are needed – Global, Specific, Exploratory, Decision
  • To Refine World Views/Mental Models/Re-perceiving/Learning/Right Brain
  • Links to Strategy and Decisions
  • Options Planning
  • Strategic Vision
  • Competitive Positioning
  • Actions and Execution

 

Please watch this video: Pierre Wack on Scenario Planning at Shell

https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/school/news/oxford-futures-library-unveils-rare-footage-scenarios-planning-pioneer-pierre-wack

 

 

Please see my related posts:

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Truth, Beauty, and Goodness: Integral Theory of Ken Wilber

Systems and Organizational Cybernetics

Semiotics, Bio-Semiotics and Cyber Semiotics

Meta Integral Theories: Integral Theory, Critical Realism, and Complex Thought

Integral Philosophy of the Rg Veda: Four Dimensional Man

 

 

 

 

Key Sources for Research:

 

 

Scenarios: An Explorer’s Guide

2008

Shell

 

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future/earlier-scenarios/_jcr_content/par/expandablelist/expandablesection_842430368.stream/1447230877395/5ab112e96191fa79e1d30c31dc6e5cd2ce19ed518a4c1445ab32aa4c4b5c7ec5/shell-scenarios-explorersguide.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Foundations of Scenario Planning

The Story of Pierre Wack

By Thomas J Chermack
2017

 

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/9781317279402

The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

 

Jeremy Bentham

Shell

2014

 

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0301421513008124/1-s2.0-S0301421513008124-main.pdf?_tid=1967f236-80f8-4756-854d-fb8fe083a1b7&acdnat=1526180172_f00c5f0478a3e7970e9187a000aae807

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Strategy%20and%20Corporate%20Finance/Our%20Insights/The%20use%20and%20abuse%20of%20scenarios/The%20use%20and%20abuse%20of%20scenarios.ashx

 

Scenarios as a Tool for the 21st Century

 

Ged Davis

Shell

 

https://www.pik-potsdam.de/avec/peyresq2005/talks/0921/leemans/literature/davis_how_does_shell_do_scenarios.pdf

 

Plotting Your Scenarios

Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz

 

http://www.meadowlark.co/plotting_your_scenarios.pdf

 

 

Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight

Dana Mietzner and Guido Reger

2005

 

http://www.forschungsnetzwerk.at/downloadpub/stragegicforesight2005.pdf

 

 

 

Chapter 4
Scenario development: a typology of approaches

by
Philip van Notten

http://search.oecd.org/site/schoolingfortomorrowknowledgebase/futuresthinking/scenarios/37246431.pdf

 

 

Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead

FROM THE SEPTEMBER 1985 ISSUE

https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead?referral=03758&cm_vc=rr_item_page.top_right

 

 

 

Living in the Futures

FROM THE MAY 2013 ISSUE

https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures

http://www.rolandkupers.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/Link-14.pdf

 

 

 

 

Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids

FROM THE NOVEMBER 1985 ISSUE

Scenario Planning

Economist

 

https://www.economist.com/node/12000755

Inside Oil Giant Shell’s Race to Remake Itself For a Low-Price World

Fortune

http://fortune.com/2018/01/24/royal-dutch-shell-lower-oil-prices/

 

 

 

 

The Man Who Saw the Future

As the pace of change in business accelerates, the legacy of Pierre Wack, the father of scenario planning, is more relevant than ever.

Oil scenarios for long-term business planning: Royal Dutch Shell and generative explanation, 1960-2010

Michael Jefferson and Vlasios Voudouris

 

https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/27910/1/JeffersonVoudouris.pdf

 

 

the scenarios question

Andrew Curry

 

https://thenextwavefutures.files.wordpress.com/2007/08/the-scenarios-question.pdf

 

 

 

 

Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking

Paul J.H. Schoemaker
MIT Sloan Review

 

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/scenario-planning-a-tool-for-strategic-thinking/

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul_Schoemaker/publication/220042263_Scenario_Planning_A_Tool_for_Strategic_Thinking/links/0deec5325c34174de2000000/Scenario-Planning-A-Tool-for-Strategic-Thinking.pdf

 

 

Vision 2040

Global scenarios for the oil and gas industry

 

Deloitte

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/ru/Documents/energy-resources/ru_er_vision2040_eng.pdf

 

 

 

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

 

Ron Bradfield, George Wright, George Burt, George Cairns, Kees Van Der Heijden

 

2005

https://cspo.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/read_Bradfield-Origins-and-Evolution-of-Scenerio-Techniques.pdf

 

 

 

 

Scenario Planning and Strategic Forecasting

Jay Ogilvy

Forbes

2015

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/2/

 

 

 

Scenarios Practices: In Search of Theory

Angela Wilkinson

2009

 

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0eec/0620a938a0d2f66266e9ce52c8a7c5ce1d09.pdf

 

 

 

Scenario Planning

UK Govenment

 

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20140108141323/http://www.bis.gov.uk/assets/foresight/docs/horizon-scanning-centre/foresight_scenario_planning.pdf

 

 Definitions and Outcome Variables of Scenario Planning

 

THOMAS J. CHERMACK

SUSAN A. LYNHAM

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.1010.1821&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Strategic planning at Royal Dutch/Shell

 

Paul Schoemaker and Kees Van Der Heijden

 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230241845_Strategic_planning_at_Royal_DutchShell

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Paul_Schoemaker/publication/230241845_Strategic_planning_at_Royal_DutchShell/links/59fb263b458515d07060613b/Strategic-planning-at-Royal-Dutch-Shell.pdf?origin=publication_detail

 

 

 

 

 

Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell

 

Peter Cornelius
Alexander Van de Putte
Mattia Romani

 

http://strategy.sjsu.edu/www.stable/B290/reading/Cornelius,%20P.,%20A.%20Van%20de%20Putte,%20et%20al.,%202005,%20California%20Management%20Review%2048(1)%2092-109.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

PLAUSIBILITY AND PROBABILITY IN SCENARIO PLANNING

 

Rafael Ramirez (Oxford University)

Cynthia Selin (Arizona State University)

 

http://eureka.sbs.ox.ac.uk/4754/1/ACCEPTED__Plausibility_and_Probability_in_Scenario_Planning_March_24_2013.pdf

http://orbit.dtu.dk/files/100480659/ACCEPTED_Plausibility_and_Probability_in_Scenario_Planning_March_24_2013.pdf

 

 

 

How to Build Scenarios Planning for “long fuse, big bang” problems in an era of uncertainty.

BY LAWRENCE WILKINSON

 

http://www.cse.chalmers.se/research/group/idc/ituniv/kurser/09/hcd/literatures/Wilkinson%20on%20scenarios_Martin%20B.pdf

 

 

 

 

Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis

WEF

2017

 

http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/NVA/WEF_FSA_FutureofGlobalFoodSystems.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

The Art of Scenarios and Strategic Planning: Tools and Pitfalls

 

MICHEL GODET

 

http://en.laprospective.fr/dyn/anglais/articles/art_of_scenarios.pdf

 

 

 

 

Scenario-Based Strategic Planning in Times of Tumultuous Change

AT Kearney

https://www.atkearney.de/documents/10192/376745/Scenario-Based_Strategic_Planning_in_Times_of_Tumultuous_Change.pdf/0012fe94-4038-449b-8423-bc81a3dba1a5

 

 

 

SHELL SCENARIOS

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html

 

 

WHAT ARE SHELL SCENARIOS?

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/what-are-scenarios.html

 

 

SKY SCENARIO

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenario-sky.html

 

 

 

EARLIER SCENARIOS

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future/earlier-scenarios.html

 

NEW LENS ON THE FUTURE

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/new-lenses-on-the-future.html

 

 

SHELL SCENARIOS ENERGY MODELS

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-energy-models.html

 

 

 

SHELL SCENARIOS IN FILM

 

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/shell-scenarios-in-film.html

 

 

40 Years of Shell Scenarios

https://www.shell.com/promos/forty-years-of-shell-scenarios/_jcr_content.stream/1448557479375/703c8a8b176922ae312712b355706ce087652a860980d5ffecac769817903d88/shell-scenarios-40yearsbook080213.pdf

 

 

 

Understanding the Stress Nexus

 

http://s06.static-shell.com/content/dam/shell-new/local/country/mex/downloads/pdf/stress-nexus-booklet.pdf

 

 

 

SHELL ENERGY TRANSITION REPORT

 

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/shell-energy-transition-report/_jcr_content/par/toptasks.stream/1524757699226/f51e17dbe7de5b0eddac2ce19275dc946db0e407ae60451e74acc7c4c0acdbf1/web-shell-energy-transition-report.pdf

 

 

MEET THE SHELL SCENARIOS TEAM

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios/meet-the-shell-scenarios-team.html

 

 

 

SUSTAINABILITY REPORTS

https://www.shell.com/sustainability/sustainability-reporting-and-performance-data/sustainability-reports.html

 

 

 

Scenario planning resources

https://people.well.com/user/mb/scenario_planning/

 

 

HOW CAN SCENARIOS SHAPE DECISION MAKING?

Dr. John W. Selsky

2013

 

http://www.highar.com/Content/themes/highar/resources/Scenarios%20Decision%20Making-Berlin.pdf

 

 

 

PROFESSIONAL DREAMERS:

THE PAST IN THE FUTURE OF SCENARIO PLANNING

By Cynthia Selin, Arizona State University

 

2007

https://www.cynthiaselin.com/uploads/4/6/5/7/4657243/selin_2007_professional_dreamers.pdf

 

 

 

 

An Introduction to Scenario Thinking

“ We cannot predict the future, but we must act!”

 

By Eric Best

 

http://ericbestonline.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/An-Introduction-to-Secnario-Thinking.pdf

 

 

the future of futures

A Curry

 

https://www.lancaster.ac.uk/social-futures/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/FutureOfFutures_APF_ebook_E2.pdf

 

 

We are grateful to Cynthia Selin and Napier Collyns for compiling this bibliography.

 

https://www.triarchypress.net/uploads/1/4/0/0/14002490/donmichael_bibliography.pdf

 

 

 

 

In Memory of Pierre Wack

by Napier Collyns and Hardin Tibbs

Netview

GBN

 

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/570ce46bd51cd428a1ef3190/t/570ff31f86db43ff62348b1a/1460663078600/Pierre+Wack+1922-1997+.pdf

 

 

 

 

Re-reading Pierre Wack on scenarios

A Curry

2017

https://thenextwavefutures.wordpress.com/2017/12/09/pierre-wack-on-scenarios-shell/

 

 

 

Scenario Planning Resources

Thinking Futures

https://thinkingfutures.net/scenario-planning-resources/

 

 

 

Journal of Futures Studies

http://jfsdigital.org

 

 

 WHAT IF? THE ART OF SCENARIO

THINKING FOR NONPROFITS

 

https://training.fws.gov/courses/alc/alc3194/resources/publications/scenario-planning/What_if-Art_of_Scenario_Thinking_for_NonProfits.pdf

 

 

Oxford Futures Library unveils rare footage of scenarios planning pioneer Pierre Wack

https://www.sbs.ox.ac.uk/school/news/oxford-futures-library-unveils-rare-footage-scenarios-planning-pioneer-pierre-wack

 

 

Should Probabilities Be Used with Scenarios?

 

Stephen M. Millett

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/2870/f9cef0b618c480312802fbb78e49bd69fa83.pdf

GBN (Global Business Network)

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Business_Network