Single, Double, and Triple Loop Organizational Learning

Single, Double, and Triple Loop Organizational Learning

Key Terms

  • Learning
  • Organizational Learning
  • Chris Argyris
  • David Schon
  • Peter Senge
  • Single Loop Learning
  • Double Loop Learning
  • Triple Loop Learning
  • Quadruple Loop Learning
  • Error Correction
  • Feedback Loop
  • Gregory Bateson
  • Action Learning
  • Cybernetic Loop
  • Reflexivity
  • Reflection and Learning
  • Systems Thinking
  • Cause and Effects
  • Organizational Adaptability
  • Organizational Culture
  • Theory In Use Models I and II
  • Action Science
  • Ed Schein
  • Levels of Learning
  • Planning as Learning
  • Cybernetics
  • Second Order Cybernetics
  • Third Order Cybernetics
  • Perceptual Flaws
  • Cognitive Learning
  • Hierarchical Planning
  • Management Control Systems
  • Management Planning and Control Systems
  • Planning and Control Systems
  • Manufacturing Planning and Control Systems
  • Advanced Planning Systems (APS)
  • Balanced Scorecards
  • Strategic Management
  • Social Learning
  • Learning to Plan, Planning to learn
  • Deutero Learning
  • Meta Learning
  • Explicit Knowledge
  • Tacit Knowledge

Single and Double Loop Learning

Source: Deradicalization through Double-Loop Learning? How the Egyptian Gamaa Islamiya Renounced Violence

Argyris and Schon thereby start with the assumption that “all deliberate action ha[s] a cognitive basis, that it reflect[s] norms, strategies, and assumptions or models of the world.”21 These mental models work as a “frame of reference” which determine expectations regarding cause and effect relationships between actions and outcomes.22 According to Argyris and Schon, organizational learning becomes necessary when there is an “error,” a mismatch between intended outcomes of strategies of action and actual results; consequently, they define learning as the “detection and correction of error.”23 This correction of errors happens through a continuous process of organizational inquiry of varying depth. Argyris and Schon distinguish two types of learning:24 In single-loop learning systems, the detection and correction of error connects the outcome in a single loop only to strategies of action whereas the governing variables remain unchanged. In double-loop learning systems, a double feedback loop “connects the detection of error not only to strategies and assumptions for effective performance, but to the very norms which define effective performance.”25 Hence, double-loop learning modifies the governing variables underlying objectives.

Single-loop learning to increase the effectiveness of actions is the dominant response to error and ingrained in routine procedures in any organization. Unfortunately, due to organizational inertia and a tendency to become defensive when confronted with failure, organizations have a tendency to produce learning systems that inhibit double-loop learning that would question their objectives and governing variables.26 Single-loop learning systems are characterized by attempts to increase effectiveness without questioning norms underlying objectives. When organizations initiate change to curb activities under existing norms, a conflict in the norms themselves can emerge. For example, requirements for change can come into conflict with the requirement of predictability.27 Argyris and Schon suggest that in order to double-loop learn, leaders must first recognize the conflict between conflicting requirements itself. They must become aware that they cannot correct the error by doing better what they already know how to do. They must engage in deep organizational inquiry: in this process the focus has to shift from learning concerned with improvement in the performance of organizational tasks to inquiry through which an organization explores and restructures the values and criteria through which it defines what it means by improved performance.28 This is often inherently conflictual. Double-loop learning can namely be inhibited when norms are undiscussable within organizations. That leaders may be unaware of the conflict between conflicting requirements may be one reason why norms become undiscussable within organizations, leading to a double-bind situation for individuals. If they expose an error, they question covert or unquestionable norms. If they do not expose an error, they perpetuate a process that inhibits organizational learning.29 Individuals thus face lose/losepage6image1381222848

STUDIES IN CONFLICT & TERRORISM 5 situations in which the rules of the game are not open to discussion.30 Commonly,

organizational norms also make the double binds themselves undiscussable:

Such procedure means that the very information needed to detect and correct errors becomes undiscussable. If one wanted to design a strategy to inhibit double-loop learning and to encourage error, a better one could not be found.31

Argyris and Schon conclude that organizations have a tendency to produce learning systems that inhibit double-loop learning as it would question their objective and norms.32 Double binds indicate such single-loop learning systems. Does the lack of cognitive abilities, as well as perceptual flaws, explain why individuals become locked in double binds, and why learning in organizations becomes inhibited? According to Argyris and Schon, the problem lies with organizational defenses that lead to a lack of error perception, rendering errors uncorrectable. Defensive organizational routines come into play when threatening or embarrassing issues arise, preventing lessons from being learned.33 Defensive routines – such as sending mixed messages or being overly diplomatic – are frequently activated when they are most counterproductive. Defensive routines can create binds:

On the one hand, […] [p]articipants are not supposed to bypass errors. Moreover, the bypass is undiscussable […] On the other hand, if the errors, their undiscussability, and the cover-ups surface, the participants are subject to criticism … 34

Defensive routines therefore prevent members of organizations from discovering the root causes of the problem and lead to paradoxes because individuals design inconsistencies of meaning and camouflage them by producing mixed messages: “to be consistent, act inconsistently, and act as if that is not the case.”35 A second consequence is that people start creating attributions to make sense of other peoples’ actions – attributions which are frequently wrong but remain unquestioned. As a result, reactions lead to unintended consequences. So why do people create consequences that contradict their intentions?36 Argyris and Schon consider that people are responsible for their actions, and that individuals who deny responsibility usually put the blame on others.37

In contrast, in double-loop learning systems productive reasoning takes place, following a logic that is not self-referential, where people take responsibility, acknowledge when there is a mismatch between intention and outcome, share awareness of organizational dilemmas, engage such conflicts through inquiry, and decrease double binds.38 In this second learning loop, the focus shifts from learning how to better accomplish tasks within a given frame of reference to learning what to do by questioning the frame of reference itself.39 In other words, while single-loop learning focuses on improving what an organization already does, or “doing the things right,” double-loop learning is concerned with what organizations ought to do, or “doing the right things.”40 However, Argyris and Schon find only limited empirical evidence for double-loop learning systems and remark that it depicts an ideal type that can be approached, making it possible to speak of organizations learning in a more or less double-loop way.41 The dynamics described above explain how double-loop systems become inhibited and how people hide their responsibility by blaming the environment for their inability to double-loop learn. Argyris and Schon also address intervention strategies that help organizations approach double-loop learning. One tool is the drawing of a diagnostic map describing how the organization learns. Such a map, they suggest, can help with predictions if certain changes were to be implemented,42 and can be used to depict alternative scenarios and their consequences.

Single Loop Learning

Source: Wikipedia

Double Loop Learning

Source: Wikipedia

Single and Double Loop Learning

Triple Loops of Learning

Source: The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

Many scholars have considered the concept of organizational learning as a dichotomy. In its basic, primary form they have described it as action oriented, routine and incremental, occurring within existing (mental) frameworks, norms, policies and rules. In the face of profound change in organizational environments, these scholars argue that a qualitatively distinct, secondary form of learning is necessary. This aims to change the (mental) frameworks, norms, policies and routines underlying day-to-day actions and routines (Cope, 2003).

This dichotomy has been expressed in a variety of terms: single-loop and double-loop (e.g. Argyris and Schön, 1974); lower-level and higher-level (Fiol and Lyles, 1985); first-order and second-order (Arthur and Aiman-Smith, 2001); exploitation and exploration (Levinthal and March, 1993; March, 1991); incremental and radical (Miner and Mezias, 1996); and adaptive and generative learning (Senge, 1990). Although these dichotomous terms stem from different perspectives on organizational learning, a reasonable consensus seems to have been established that they refer to comparable learning processes and outcomes (Argyris, 1996; Arthur and Aiman-Smith, 2001; Miner and Mezias, 1996). Thus, as defined by Argyris (1999: 68), single-loop learning occurs ‘whenever an error is detected and corrected without questioning or altering the underlying values of the system’, and double-loop learning occurs ‘when mismatches are corrected by first examining and altering the governing variables and then the actions’.

A number of authors have conceived of a further type of organizational learning, for which the most prominent term is ‘triple-loop’ learning (Flood and Romm, 1996; Isaacs, 1993; Romme and Van Witteloostuijn, 1999; Snell and Chak, 1998; Swieringa and Wierdsma, 1992; Yuthas et al., 2004). Typically, this is described as additional to, and metaphorically at a ‘higher’ or ‘deeper’ level than, primary and secondary forms of learning, the metaphor implying that this level has greater significance and profundity. Yet, in spite of its perceived importance, conceptualizations of this form of learning do not always make clear how it differs from, or relates to, primary or secondary forms. Scholars of organizational learning might look first to Argyris and Schön; significantly, though, we have established that whilst triple-loop learning has been inspired by Argyris and Schön, the term does not appear explicitly in their published work.

Within this we explore the original work of Argyris and Schön, and of the anthropologist and cybernetician Gregory Bateson, the major influences cited by authors who propose these conceptualizations. This enables us to make a theoretical contribution through identifying three distinct conceptualizations of triple-loop learning. These are:

A. a level beyond, and considered by proponents to be superior to, Argyris and Schön’s single-loop and double-loop learning;

B. an equivalent to Argyris and Schön’s (1978, 1996) concept of ‘deutero-learning’;

C. a proposed third level inspired by Bateson’s (1973)1 framework of levels of learning (specifically ‘Learning III’).

We discuss why these conceptualizations should be regarded as distinct from each other, and highlight some implications for practice.

Source: The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

Source: Levels of learning: hither and whither

Source: Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward

Source: TOOL | Single, Double and Triple Loop Learning

Quadruple Loops of Learning

Source: Policy learning and crisis policy-making: quadruple-loop learning and COVID-19 responses in South Korea

Levels of Learning

Source: The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

Org. Culture, Learning, Performance

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source:A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture

Source: A GENERIC THEORY OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE

Source: A GENERIC THEORY OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE

Source: Approaches for Organizational Learning: A Literature Review

Management Planning and Control Systems

Source: Performance management: a framework for management control systems research

Hierarchical Production Planning and Control

Source: A bibliography of Hierarchical Production Planning

Production Planning and Control Systems

Source: Google Images

Strategic, Tactical, and Operational Decisions

Source: Hierarchical Production Planning / Bitran/Tirupati/1989

My Related Posts

Steps to an Ecology of Mind: Recursive Vision of Gregory Bateson

Cybernetics, Autopoiesis, and Social Systems Theory

Autocatalysis, Autopoiesis and Relational Biology

Multilevel Approach to Research in Organizations

Second Order Cybernetics of Heinz Von Foerster

Feedback Thought in Economics and Finance

Third and Higher Order Cybernetics

Systems and Organizational Cybernetics

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

Hierarchy Theory in Biology, Ecology and Evolution

Jay W. Forrester and System Dynamics

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Key Sources of Research

Triple-loop learning : theoretical framework, methodology & illustration

(An example from the railway sector)

Guillaume BarbatPhilippe BoigeyIsabelle Jehan

Dans Projectics / Proyéctica / Projectique 2011/2-3 (n°8-9), pages 129 à 141

https://www.cairn.info/revue-projectique-2011-2-page-129.htm

What is Social Learning?

Author(s): Mark S. Reed, Anna C. Evely, Georgina Cundill, Ioan Fazey, Jayne Glass, Adele Laing, Jens Newig, Brad Parrish, Christina Prell, Chris Raymond and Lindsay C. Stringer

Source: Ecology and Society , Dec 2010, Vol. 15, No. 4 (Dec 2010) Published by: Resilience Alliance Inc.

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/26268235

The learning organization and the level of consciousness 

Ricardo Chiva

http://repositori.uji.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10234/169412/54786.pdf?sequence=1

Policy learning and crisis policy-making: quadruple-loop learning and COVID-19 responses in South Korea

Sabinne Leea, Changho Hwangb and M. Jae Moonc

aAssociate Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration, Seoul, South Korea; 

bAssistant Professor, Dong-A University, Busan, South Korea; 

cCollege of Social Science, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea

POLICY AND SOCIETY
2020, VOL. 39, NO. 3, 363–381 https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2020.1785195

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14494035.2020.1785195

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14494035.2020.1785195

“A systemic approach to processes of power in learning organizations: Part I – literature, theory, and methodology of triple loop learning”,

Robert L. Flood, Norma R.A. Romm, (2018)

The Learning Organization, Vol. 25 Issue: 4, pp.260-272, https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-10-2017-0101
Permanent link to this document:
https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-10-2017-0101

“A systemic approach to processes of power in learning organizations: Part II – triple loop learning and a facilitative intervention in the “500 schools project””,

Robert L. Flood, Norma R.A. Romm, (2018)

The Learning Organization, https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-11-2017-0106
Permanent link to this document:
https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-11-2017-0106

A Mighty Step: Critical Systemic Interpretation of the Learning Organization

Robert Louis Flood and Hanne Finnestrand

The Oxford Handbook of the Learning Organization Edited by Anders Ragnar Örtenblad

Print Publication Date: Dec 2019
Subject: Business and Management, Organizational Theory and Behaviour
Online Publication Date: Jan 2020 DOI: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198832355.013.11

Click to access A-Mighty-Step-Critical-Systemic-Interpretation-of-the-Learning-Organization.pdf

LEVELS OF LEARNING: HITHER AND WHITHER

“Guest editorial”,

Max Visser, Ricardo Chiva, Paul Tosey, (2018)

The Learning Organization, Vol. 25 Issue: 4, pp.218-223, https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-02-2018-0021
Permanent link to this document:
https://doi.org/10.1108/TLO-02-2018-0021

http://repositori.uji.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10234/176446/60253.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

Learning from the future meets Bateson’s levels of learning

Alexander Kaiser

Institute for Information Business, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria

The Learning Organization Vol. 25 No. 4, 2018 pp. 237-247

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-06-2017-0065/full/html

The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

Paul Tosey, Max Visser and Mark NK Saunders

Management Learning 2012 43: 291

originally published online 2 December 2011 DOI: 10.1177/1350507611426239

The online version of this article can be found at:

http://mlq.sagepub.com/content/43/3/291

Click to access The-origins-and-conceptualizations-of-triple-loop-learning-A-critical-review.pdf

Why aren‟t we all working for Learning Organisations?

Professor John Seddon and Brendan O‟Donovan

e-ORGANISATIONS & PEOPLE, MAY 200910, VOL 17. NO 2

Click to access why-arent-we-all-working-for-learning-organisations.pdf

The Culture of Learning Organizations: Understanding Argyris’s Theory through a Socio- Cognitive Systems Learning Model

Laura Friesenborg

University of St. Thomas, Minnesota

Thesis PhD 2013

https://ir.stthomas.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=&httpsredir=1&article=1030&context=caps_ed_orgdev_docdiss

FROM ORGANISATIONAL LEARNING TO SOCIAL LEARNING: A TALE OF TWO ORGANISATIONS IN THE MURRAY-DARLING BASIN

Michael Mitchell, School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania

http://dx.doi.org/10.5172/rsj.2013.22.3.230

Rural Society · June 2013

Shifting from Unilateral Control to Mutual Learning

By Fred Kofman

The executive mind and double-loop learning

ChrisAgryris

Available online 6 February 2004.

Organizational Dynamics
Volume 11, Issue 2, Autumn 1982, Pages 5-22

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/009026168290002X

Problem-Solving as a Double-Loop Learning System 

by Jeff Dooley
© 1999 Adaptive Learning Design

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.35.44&rep=rep1&type=pdf

chris argyris: theories of action, double‐loop learning and organizational learning

Double Loop Learning in Organizations

Chris Argyris
Harvard Business Review
No. 77502

Harvard Business Review (September 1977)

Click to access Chris-Argyris-Double-Loop-Learning-in-Organisations.pdf

https://hbr.org/1977/09/double-loop-learning-in-organizations

Single-Loop and Double-Loop Models in Research on Decision Making

Author(s): Chris Argyris


Source: Administrative Science Quarterly, Vol. 21, No. 3 (Sep., 1976), pp. 363-375 Published by: Johnson Graduate School of Management, Cornell University Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2391848

A Primer on Organizational Learning

By Olivier Serrat

ADB

Modes of Organizational Learning

by Soren Eilertsen, Ph.D., with Kellan London, M.A.

Click to access single_and_double_loop_learning.pdf

The origins and conceptualizations of ‘triple-loop’ learning: A critical review

July 2012

Management Learning 43(3):291-307
DOI:10.1177/1350507611426239

Paul Tosey
Max Visser
Mark NK Saunders

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258171998_The_origins_and_conceptualizations_of_%27triple-loop%27_learning_A_critical_review

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-origins-and-conceptualizations-of-‘triple-loop’-Tosey-Visser/ea24da54380dc3cabdac74deb6cc57132a470c8a

TOOL | Single, Double and Triple Loop Learning

Good Communication That Blocks Learning

by Chris Argyris

Harvard Business Review 1994
Reprint 94401

Click to access Chris-Argyris-Good-Communication-that-Blocks-Learning.pdf

Double loop learning in organizations

By uncovering their own hidden theories of action, managers can detect and correct errors

Chris Argyris

Harvard Business Review September-October 1977

https://d1wqtxts1xzle7.cloudfront.net/33422921/08_Argyris_doublelooplearning.pdf?1396993260=u0026amp;response-content-disposition=inline%3B+filename%3DDouble_loop_learning_in_organizations.pdfu0026amp;Expires=1627165288u0026amp;Signature=GOY4COga2LJKGnc3XAB5ge8ybpWvBBmeO779XhTzktEKTrIQREbkh9V8apE6z2QMCT2vufBoTq1NSSHNDJj0GGXu66VeCS8D37cTi-onZECbPUF5wXZ7Oa2U5Ih54fN-muWcED9BKEmV4G0e7kF3kDeAWrCs0jX5zC63JnOOvAyRL0ZjCcDGeF2~7T7WeNSnNZBKFJZW49tXy~LjhoRil2s7HBZxYI-Fjjp~fylKpDgDRZnfouPkCSnLU1rpeQBQOgrPnb8qmF0Bl6APCc-edECHKgsDYYBiqViUQ4epMm1yZbCSeUlYV6ODDm1dzWbfarwnOtRBnGWozuUbTYwIYg__u0026amp;Key-Pair-Id=APKAJLOHF5GGSLRBV4ZA

Analyzing the loops and taking the steps on the journey toward a learning organization

Simon Reese

University of Maryland University College, Seoul, Korea

The Learning Organization Vol. 24 No. 3, 2017 pp. 194-197

DOI 10.1108/TLO-01-2017-0004

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-01-2017-0004/full/pdf?title=analyzing-the-loops-and-taking-the-steps-on-the-journey-toward-a-learning-organization

N-loop learning: part II – an empirical investigation

Bernard L. Simonin 

The Learning Organization

ISSN: 0969-6474

May 2017

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-12-2016-0100/full/html

N-loop learning: part I – of hedgehog, fox, dodo bird and sphinx

Bernard L. Simonin 

The Learning Organization

ISSN: 0969-6474

Article publication date: 10 April 2017 

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-12-2016-0099/full/html

Challenges of the levels of learning

Nataša Rupčić 

The Learning Organization

ISSN: 0969-6474

Article publication date: 14 May 2018

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/TLO-03-2018-0037/full/html

Deradicalization through Double-Loop Learning? How the Egyptian Gamaa Islamiya Renounced Violence

Carolin Goerzig

To cite this article: Carolin Goerzig (2019): Deradicalization through Double-Loop Learning? How the Egyptian Gamaa Islamiya Renounced Violence, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, DOI: 10.1080/1057610X.2019.1680193

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1680193

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epub/10.1080/1057610X.2019.1680193?needAccess=true

Systems Thinkers

  • Magnus Ramage
  • Karen Shipp

2009

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-1-84882-525-3?page=2#toc

Reframing Conflict: Intercultural Conflict as Potential Transformation

Beth Fisher-Yoshida

Journal of Intercultural Communication No.8, 2005

Developing the Leader’s Strategic Mindset: Establishing the Measures

John Pisapia, Daniel Reyes-Guerra, and Eleni Coukos-Semmel,

Kravis Leadership Institute, Leadership Review, Spring 2005, Vol. 5, pp. 41-68

What is Social Learning?

DOI:10.5751/ES-03564-1504r01

Authors:

Mark S. Reed

Anna Clair Evely

Georgina Cundill

Ioan Fazey

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/259638979_What_is_Social_Learning

The social learning discourse: Trends, themes and interdisciplinary influences in current research.

Environmental Science and Policy, 25, 157-166.

Strategic Learning

MICHAEL L. BARNETT

University of Oxford
Saïd Business School, Room 30.015 Park End Street
Oxford, OX1 1HP
United Kingdom +44(0)1865 288844 michael.barnett@sbs.ox.ac.uk

The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management

David Teece and Mie Augier (eds.)

The Overview on Evolution of Learning Organization Theories

Sara. Ghaffari,1 Dr. Ishak. Mad Shah,2, and Jeveria Fazal3

Universiti Tecknologi Malaysia

Ishak@utm.my Saragh7@yahoo.com, Javb107@yahoo.com

Modes of Knowing and Modes of Coming to Know Knowledge Creation and Co-Construction as Socio-Epistemological Engineering in Educational Processes

Markus F. Peschl

Constructivist Foundations

Volume 1 · Number 3 · Pages 111–123

Constructivist Foundations 1(3): 111–123.

http://constructivist.info/1/3/111

https://constructivist.info/1/3/111.peschl

Triple-loop learning as foundation for profound change, individual cultivation, and radical innovation: Construction processes beyond scientific and rational knowledge.

Peschl M. F. (2007)

Constructivist Foundations 2(2-3): 136–145.

http://constructivist.info/2/2-3/136

A Configuration Model of Organizational Culture **

Daniel Dauber1, Gerhard Fink2, and Maurice Yolles

SAGE Open 1–16
2012
DOI: 10.1177/2158244012441482

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/2158244012441482

Exploring adaptability through learning layers and learning loops

Löf, Annette 

Umeå University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Political Science.

DOI:10.1080/13504622.2010.505429

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/241715151_Exploring_adaptability_through_learning_layers_and_learning_loops

Kolb’s Model of Experiential Learning: A framework for Collaboration

Dr. Michael Manning

CAAHE Academics Conference October, 2011
Austin, TX

Click to access KolbsModelofExperientialLearning.pdf

A GENERIC THEORY OF ORGANIZATIONAL CULTURE

Daniel Dauber, WU -Vienna University of Economics and Business (daniel.dauber@wu.ac.at)

Gerhard Fink, WU -Vienna University of Economics and Business (gerhard.fink@wu.ac.at)

Maurice Yolles, Centre for the Creation of Coherent Change & Knowledge (C4K) (m.yolles@ljmu.ac.uk)

Cross-disciplinary collaboration and learning. 

Pennington, D. D. 2008.

Ecology and Society 13(2): 8. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art8/

Barriers to organizational learning: An integration of theory and research

Jan Schilling1 and Annette Kluge

International Journal of Management Reviews (2009)

doi: 10.1111/j.1468-2370.2008.00242.x

Organizational learning in complex world

Agnieszka Dziubińska

Faculty of Management, University of Economics in Katowice, POLAND, Katowice, 1 Maja street 50,
E-mail: agnieszka.dziubińska@ue.katowice.pl

Click to access 87-246-249.pdf

Coming to a New Awareness of Organizational Culture ,

Schein, Edgar H., 

Sloan Management Review, 25:2 (1984:Winter) p.3

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/coming-to-a-new-awareness-of-organizational-culture/

The Real Relationship Between Organizational Culture and Organizational Learning

Fumie ANDO

School of Business Administration, Nanzan University

E-mail:fumiea@nanzan-u.ac.jp

Annals of Business Administrative Science Vol.1, No.2 (July 2002)

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/abas/1/2/1_25/_pdf

A Review of the Concept of Organisational Learning

By Catherine L Wang & Pervaiz K Ahmed

Working Paper Series 2002 Number WP004/02

ISSN Number ISSN 1363-6839

Catherine L Wang

Research Assistant
University of Wolverhampton, UK Tel: +44 (0) 1902 321651
Email: C.Wang@wlv.ac.uk

Professor Pervaiz K Ahmed

Chair in Management
University of Wolverhampton, UK Tel: +44 (0) 1902 323921
Email: pkahmed@wlv.ac.uk

Double-Loop Learning, Teaching, and Research

DOI:10.5465/AMLE.2002.8509400

Chris Argyris

Performance management: a framework for management control systems research

David Otley􏰆

Management Accounting Research, 1999, 10, 363􏰀382

Article No. mare.1999.0115

Management Control Systems: A Historical Perspective

  • January 2010

Jordi Carenys

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/293221830_Management_Control_Systems_A_Historical_Perspective

MANAGEMENT CONTROL SYSTEMS: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Peter Lorange

Michael S. Scott Morton

1974 MIT

Double-loop learning

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Double-loop_learning

Approaches for Organizational Learning: A Literature Review **

Dirk BastenThilo Haamann

First Published August 12, 2018 

https://doi.org/10.1177/2158244018794224

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2158244018794224

A bibliography of Hierarchical Production Planning

Click to access A_BIBLIOGRAPHY.PDF

HIERARCHIES

IN PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT AND CONTROL: A SURVEY

Camille M. Libosvar

Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems 

January 7. 1988

LIDS-P-1734

Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge. Massachusetts

HIERARCHICAL PRODUCTION PLANNING SYSTEMS

by
ARNOLDO C. MAX
and JONATHAN J . GOLOVIN


August 1977

Technical Report No. 135
Work Performed Under
Contract N00014—75—C—0556, Office of Naval Research
Multilevel Logistics Organization Models
NR 347—027
M.I.T. OSP 82491
Operations Research Center
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
cambridge , Massachusetts 02139

“Hierarchical Production Planning”

Gabriel R. Bitran*t Devanath Tirupati**

MIT Sloan School Working Paper #3017-89-MS

May 1989

*Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge, MA 02139

**Department of Management, The University of Texas at Austin

tThis research has been partially supported by the Leaders for Manufacturing Program.

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Hierarchical-production-planning-Bitran-Tirupati/ca83a1bab3540162c2b19f19d3d08a99a18c0165

HIERARCHICAL INTEGRATION OF PRODUCTION PLANNING AND SCHEDULING

by
Arnoldo C. Hax and Harlan C. Meal

May 1973

656-73

Hierarchical Production Planning: A Single Stage System

Gabriel R. Bitran, Elizabeth A. Haas and Arnoldo C. Hax

Operations Research
Vol. 29, No. 4, Operations Management (Jul. – Aug., 1981), pp. 717-743 (27 pages)
Published By: INFORMS
Operations Research
https://www.jstor.org/stable/170387

Hierarchical planning systems — a production application

Hax A.C., Bitran G.R. (1979)

In: Ritzman L.P., Krajewski L.J., Berry W.L., Goodman S.H., Hardy S.T., Vitt L.D. (eds) Disaggregation. Springer, Dordrecht.

https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-7636-9_5

  • Publisher Name Springer, Dordrecht
  • Print ISBN 978-94-015-7638-3
  • Online ISBN 978-94-015-7636-9

Hierarchical Production Planning: A Two Stage System

DOI:10.1287/opre.30.2.232

Gabriel R. Bitran

Elizabeth A. Haas

Arnoldo C. Hax

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235064925_Hierarchical_Production_Planning_A_Two_Stage_System

Analytical Evaluation of Hierarchical Planning Systems

M. A. H. DEMPSTER

Balliol College, Oxford, England

M. L. FISHER

University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

L. JANSEN, 8. J. LAGEWEG, J. K. LENSTRA Mathematisch Centrum, AmsterdamThe Netherlands

A. H. G. RINNOOY KAN

Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

(Received December 1979; accepted March 1981)

Click to access RR-84-04.pdf

Deutero-Learning in Organizations: A Review and a Reformulation

DOI:10.5465/AMR.2007.24351883

Max Visser

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228975720_Deutero-Learning_in_Organizations_A_Review_and_a_Reformulation

https://repository.ubn.ru.nl/bitstream/handle/2066/19481/19481.pdf?sequence=1

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Scenarios: Frames of Possibilities and Plausibilities

Scenarios: Frames of Possibilities and Plausibilities

Key Terms

  • Scenarios
  • Scenario Planning
  • Futures
  • Intuitive Logics method
  • Shell
  • GBN
  • Oxford Scenarios Program
  • Predetermined Elements
  • Critical Uncertainty
  • Weak Signals
  • SRI International (Stanford Research Institute)
  • RAND Corporation
  • Hudson Institute
  • DNI US MoD
  • UK MoD
  • Scenario Quadrant
  • Multiple Scenarios
  • Bounded Rationality
  • Cognitive Biases
  • Frames
  • Availability Bias
  • Overconfidence
  • Anchoring
  • Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA)

Key Concepts

Source: UNDP FORESIGHT: THE MANUAL Page 11

Black swans

Rare and discontinuous events that are unprecedented, unexpected and have major effects. They are often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight, but this tendency to see coherence can obscure future threats.

Cognitive bias

A pattern of deviation in judgment that influences the way information is received, processed, retained or called. Cognitive biases influence how inferences, judgements and predictions are drawn.

Cognitive dissonance

The mental stress or discomfort one experiences when confronted with new information or views that contradicts existing values or beliefs. Because humans strive for internal consistency, individuals tend to reduce cognitive dissonance by denying or devaluing new information and views, or rationalising their own values and beliefs.

Complexity

Complex systems are non-linear and diverse networks made up of multiple interconnected elements. Cause and effect relationships within the system are not easily discernable or predictable. Historical extrapolation is futile for predicting emergence (new patterns and behaviours) in complex systems.

Cross-‐cutting issues

Issues or challenges that affect more than a single interest area, institution or stakeholder, and that need to be addressed from all points of view. A Whole-of-Government or Networked approach is useful for addressing cross-cutting issues.

Design thinking

An end-user centred approach to problem-solving that places the final experience at the heart of developing solutions. Following an iterative approach, the rapid prototyping component of design thinking allows for quick adaptation in uncertain environments and continual improvement.

Experimentation and prototyping

Experimentation is a process that seeks to test and validate competing hypotheses. Prototyping refers to creating models or sketches to test ideas and spot problems. Experimentation and prototyping are effective ways to navigate and test hypotheses and ideas in complex or rapidly changing environments.

Interdependence

A relationship of mutual reliance between two or more factors within a system such that changes in one area affect the other(s). 

Path dependency

Describes the inclination to stick to past practice despite the availability of newer, more efficient practices as a result of cognitive biases such as risk aversion, or concerns over sunk costs. Designing contingency plans with ample space for flexibility can reduce the constraints of path dependency.

Resilience

A system’s ability to cope with and recover from shocks or disruptions, either by returning to the status quo or by transforming itself to adapt to the new reality. Resilient systems view change as inevitable and failure as opportunities to learn from. Social cohesion, trust in government and national pride can be indicators of resilience.

Retrospective coherence

The act of assigning coherence in hindsight in order to make sense of what is happening. Practicing retrospective coherence presents the danger of making decisions for the future based on the lessons of history that may not apply in similar situations.

Signposts

Milestone markers between a given future and the present day that aid visualisation by breaking up the path to the future into manageable blocks of time. They can help to gauge the extent to which a particular scenario has materialised, and can be events, thresholds or trends and patterns.

Systems thinking

An analytical problem solving approach that looks at a system as a whole rather than in isolation, and that considers the interactions between various elements. The big-picture overview helps decision makers see linkages across different sections within the system and can foster collaboration and shared understanding within an organisation. Systems thinking also helps policymakers identify cause-effect relationships and how they might manifest in the larger system.

Unknown unknowns

Issues and situations in organisations that have yet to surface and which are blind spots for planners who are unaware that they do not know about them.

Whole-‐of-‐Government (WG)

A ‘joined-up’ or networked approach to governance that represents a shift from vertical to horizontal decision-making, and which is built on inter-agency collaboration and collective problem-solving. Whole-of-government involves a process of identifying, analysing and managing wide-ranging and cross-cutting issues.

Wicked problems

Large and intractable issues and challenges that have no immediate or obvious solutions and whose causes and influencing factors are not easily determined. Wicked problems are characterised by many agents interacting with each other in often mystifying ways, and involve multiple stakeholders operating with different perspectives and goals. 

Purpose of Scenarios

Source: Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?

Van der Heijden [15] argues that there is a confusing assortment of reasons as to why one should engage in scenarios. He advocates the importance of clearly identifying the purpose of undertaking scenario work — in order to make the appropriate selection of scenario methodology. Van der Heijden argues that “purpose” can be divided along two dimensions; the first dimension is to establish the extent of the scenario work i.e. whether the scenario work is to be a one-off project, or part of on an on-going scenario-based planning process. The second dimension is that of the primary aim of the scenario work, this being either to raise questions, or to answer them — and thus aid decision making.

The combination of these two dimensions results in four purposes of scenario work, namely:

• Sense-making: a one-off ‘exploratory question-raising scenario project’;
• Developing strategy: a one-off ‘decision-making scenario project’;
• Anticipation: an ‘on-going exploratory scenario activity’; and
• Action-based organizational learning: an ‘on-going decision-making activity’.

Van der Heijden continues by suggesting that these four purposes represent a hierarchy of interconnected aims serving the ultimate goal of “strategic success” in which organizational learning is the “overarching broad organisational skill” achieved when the scenario work is an on-going decision-making activity [15, page 162].

Benefits of Scenarios

Source: Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?

The (mainly practitioner-based) literature contains many testimonials as to the use and organizational benefits of scenarios, which we group under the following headings:

3.1. Enhanced perception


Scenario techniques reportedly enhance corporate and individual perception as they provide a framework for managers to understand and evaluate trends and events as they happen [16], and managers involved in scenario exercises supposedly become better observers of the business environment, more attuned to discerning changes [17]. Porter [18] suggests that scenarios help managers to make explicit their implicit assumptions about the future, and to think beyond the confines of conventional wisdom. This, combined with the fact that scenarios often challenge conventional wisdom and complacency by shifting the “perceptual anchors” from which people view the future, reduces the likelihood of managers and organizations making big mistakes in the future and/or of being caught unaware [19,20].


3.2. A structure for dealing with uncertainty


Scenarios provide a structure for thinking aimed at attacking complexity by allowing managers to deal more openly and explicitly with acknowledged uncertainty [21,16], to arrive at a deeper understanding of what is significant, and to identify what needs to be dealt with – and what is transient and can be ignored [11,22]. Bunn and Salo [23] suggest that, by emphasizing that there are a range of possible futures rather than a single-point future, scenarios reduce the bias for underestimating uncertainties. This is echoed by Docherty and McKiernan [24] who state that “the greatest contribution of scenario planning lies in its active engagement of actors in its process and its power to enable them to think about complexity and uncertainty in external contexts, and then how they might shape the external environment to their own strategic ends” (p. 10).


3.3. Integration of corporate planning functions


Scenario techniques provide a good middle ground between relying on informal and intuitive techniques, and being bound by the methodological constraints of more formal, quantitative techniques. As a result, a greater variety of information and wider company participation can be incorporated into the forecasting and planning process when scenario planning is used [16]. Other authors [25,26] add that scenarios are also able to combine topical intelligence and structure seemingly disparate environmental factors into a useful framework for decision making in a way that no other planning models can.


3.4. A communications tool


According to Allen [21], the communications qualities of scenarios are overwhelming as they provide a rational and non-threatening framework for discussion, even with those outside of the organization [27]. Durance and Godet [28] state that scenarios are also an effective means of rallying employees and communicating strategy across the organization. Bezhold [29] suggests that the scenarios can be used as a marketing and educational campaign throughout the organization. Ringland [25] adds that, by sharing its scenarios with the outside world, an organization can provide the context for dialog with its stakeholders — enabling it to influence its external environment. An added benefit [30] is that the collegiality which usually emerges in a scenario planning exercise does not evaporate once the scenario exercise is complete. Van der Heijden [15,31] reports that Royal Dutch Shell’s scenarios emerged as a powerful management tool by which senior management was able to influence decision-making at all levels throughout the organization, without becoming directly involved in the process or minutiae of the subsequent, scenario-based, evaluation of decisions. This was achieved by making the scenarios the context for key strategic decisions — thus uniting the geographically dispersed, disparate, and decentralized business units in developing a common strategy [28].


3.5. Organizational learning


Although scenario planning was initially understood as a tool for “thinking the unthinkable” [32], a body of literature has subsequently developed around the value of scenarios in terms of individual and organizational learning [11]. This is because scenario exercises ostensibly provide a politically-safe team learning environment and a rich learning process that stimulates creativity [11,15,33–37]. As models of future business environments, scenarios provide a vehicle for pseudo-experimentation in terms of formulating strategic options and then examining the consequences of these options in a range of future environments [15,30,31,38]. By having to articulate their assumptions in a scenario exercise, managers can identify inconsistencies in their own thinking and that of their colleagues in a non-threatening environment [25,37]. At the same time, the necessity in scenario work to undertake detailed analysis of environmental driving forces and their causal relationships, forces individuals to examine their perceptions, stretch their mental models and to develop a shared view of uncertainty [15,31]. All of the foregoing leads to an increased confidence in decision-making [16] and moves the organization towards becoming, what has been termed, a “learning organization” [15].

Based upon our consideration of the above purposes and benefits of the use of scenario methods, we distil from the literature three main objectives of the application of scenario approaches, as follows:


1) Enhancing understanding: of the causal processes, connections and logical sequences underlying events — thus uncovering how a future state of the world may unfold;


2) Challenging conventional thinking: to reframe perceptions and change the mindsets of those within organizations; and


3) Improving decision making: to inform strategy development.

Support for this conclusion also comes from the work of Varum and Melo who, after undertaking a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the literature on scenario planning, argued that there is a consensus in the literature on three benefits of using scenarios, namely an “improvement of the learning process, improvement of the decision-making process, and identification of new issues and problems” [2, page.362].


Our three objectives are interlinked in that: firstly, understanding the connections, causal processes and logical sequences which determine how events may unfold to create different futures, will challenge conventional thinking and will also prove of benefit in improving organizational decision making and strategy; secondly, challenging conventional thinking, reframing perceptions and changing mind-sets should result in collective organizational learning; and, thirdly, collective organization learning should enhance organizational decision making and strategy — which in turn should enhance collective organizational learning.

Types of Scenarios

Source: An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?

  • Predictive
    • Trend
    • Whatif
  • Explorative
    • Framed
    • Unframed
  • Normative
    • Preserving
    • Transformational

Types of Uncertainty

Source: Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance

Source: A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning – Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy

Multiple Frames of Changes in Contextual Environment on the Transcational Environment

Source: Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy

Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation

Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation

Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation

Institutions and Methods of Scenario Planning

  • Shell/GBN Intuitive Logics Method
  • Oxford Scenario Planning Approach
  • La Prospective / M Godet
  • Rand Corporation
  • SRI International
  • GBN/Monitor/Deloitte/Center for Long View/Market Sensing and Scenario Planning

Source: Plausibility and probability in scenario planning

Source: The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Research Journals and Authors on Scenario Planning

Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES

Scenarios Application

  • Business
  • Non Profit Org
  • Philanthropic
  • Public Sector
  • Arts and Culture
  • Governance
  • National Security
  • Transnational Issues

My Related Posts

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

On Anticipation: Going Beyond Forecasts and Scenarios

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

Narrative, Rhetoric and Possible Worlds

What are Problem Structuring Methods?

Drama Theory: Acting Strategically

Frames in Interaction

Frames, Communication, and Public Policymaking

Frames, Framing and Reframing

Dialogs and Dialectics

Strategy | Strategic Management | Strategic Planning | Strategic Thinking

Key Sources of Research:

Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation

James Derbyshire a,∗, George Wright b

a Centre for Enterprise and Economic Development Research, Middlesex University, UK 

b Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, UK

International Journal of Forecasting 33 (2017) 254–266

Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?

GeorgeWrighta

RonBradfieldb

GeorgeCairnsca

Warwick Business School, Scarman Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK

bStrathclyde Business School, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

cSchool of Management, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia

Received 30 August 2012, Accepted 2 September 2012, Available online 29 September 2012.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 631-642

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

RonBradfielda

GeorgeWrightb1

GeorgeBurta2

GeorgeCairnsb3

KeesVan Der Heijdena4

aUniversity of Strathclyde, Graduate School of Business, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow G4 0QU, UK

bUniversity of Durham, Durham Business School, Mill Hill Lane, Durham DH1 3LB, UK

Available online 24 May 2005.

Futures
Volume 37, Issue 8, October 2005, Pages 795-812

How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges

AngelaWilkinsona

RolandKupersbc

DianaMangalagiude

aFutures Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK

bTHNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam, The Netherlands

cSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, UK

dReims Management School, Reims, France

eSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK

Received 19 December 2011, Revised 28 September 2012, Accepted 1 October 2012, Available online 27 December 2012.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 699-710

Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention

RafaelRamírezac

RikuÖstermanb

DanielGrönquistc

aSaïd Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford, OX1 1HP, UK

bItäpaja Ltd., Urakkatie 10-12 A 2, 00680 Helsinki, Finland

cNormannPartners AB, Engelbrektsgatan 9-11, SE-114 32 Stockholm, Sweden

Received 4 November 2011, Revised 21 October 2012, Accepted 24 October 2012, Available online 19 November 2012.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 825-838

Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?

RafaelRamireza1

AngelaWilkinsonab1

aSaid Business School, Oxford, UK

bSmith School of Enterprise and Environment, Oxford, UK

Received 19 March 2013, Revised 9 October 2013, Accepted 17 October 2013, Available online 22 November 2013.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 86, July 2014, Pages 254-264

Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning

Paul J.H.Schoemaker

George S.Day

Scott A.Snyder

Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

Received 18 December 2011, Revised 7 October 2012, Accepted 9 October 2012, Available online 20 December 2012.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 815-824

Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunctive fallacy in probability judgment.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983).

Psychological Review, 90, 293–315.

Scenarios and Forecasting: Two Perspectives

KeesVan Der Heijden

Received 1 December 1998, Accepted 1 January 1999, Available online 6 October 2000.

Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 65, Issue 1, September 2000, Pages 31-36

Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades

Celeste Amorim

VarumCarlaMelo

Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

Available online 18 November 2009.

Futures
Volume 42, Issue 4, May 2010, Pages 355-369

Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method

GeorgeWrighta

PaulGoodwinb1

aDurham Business School, University of Durham, Mill Hill lane, Durham City, DH1 3lB, United Kingdom

bSchool of Management, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, United Kingdom

Available online 5 June 2009.

International Journal of Forecasting
Volume 25, Issue 4, October–December 2009, Pages 813-825

Living in the Futures

Harvard Business Review May 2013

https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures

Strategic reframing : the Oxford scenario planning approach

Rafael RamírezAngela Wilkinson

Oxford, UK : Oxford University Press, 2016.

Strategic Foresight Primer

Angela Wilkinson

Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology

Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow

James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1HP, UK

Received 10 March 2008
Accepted for publication 20 August 2008 Published 15 December 2008
Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/3/045017

2008 Environ. Res. Lett. 045017

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045017/pdf

HOW SCENARIOS BECAME CORPORATE STRATEGIES: ALTERNATIVE FUTURES AND UNCERTAINTY
IN STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

Bretton Fosbrook

A Dissertation submitted to
The Faculty of Graduate Studies
in
Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Graduate Program in Science and Technology Studies York University
Toronto, Ontario

December 2017

Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda.

David Tucket, Antoine Mandel, Diana Mangalagiu, Allen Abramson, Jochen Hinkel, et al..

Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society, Taylor and Francis 2015, 27 (2), pp.213 – 242.

10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078 . hal-02057279

Scenarios Practices: In Search of Theory

Angela Wilkinson University of Oxford UK

Journal of Futures Studies, February 2009, 13(3): 107 – 114

Towards a relational concept of uncertainty: Incorporating the human dimension

Brugnach, M.1; A. Dewulf 2; C. Pahl-Wostl 1 and T. Taillieu 3

1. Universität Osnabrück, Germany
2. Wageningen University, The Netherlands
3. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium
Contact author: Marcela Brugnach, mbrugnac@usf.uos.de

Ambiguity: the challenge of knowing and deciding together

M. Brugnach a,*, H. Ingram b,c

a Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands 

b Southwest Center, University of Arizona, United States
c School of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, United States

environmental science & policy 15 (2012) 60–71

Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know. 

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu.

2008.

Ecology and Society13(2): 30. [online]

URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

Policy Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Supporting Policymaking in the Public Sector

WARREN E. WALKERa,b,*
a RAND Europe, Leiden, Netherlands
b Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands

JOURNAL OF MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS

 JMultiCritDecisAnal9: 11–27 (2000)

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.201.3202&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Integrated management of natural resources: dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames

A. Dewulf*, M. Craps*, R. Bouwen*, T. Taillieu* and C. Pahl-Wostl**

*Center for Organizational and Personnel Psychology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Tiensestraat 102, 3000 Leuven, Belgium (E-mail: art.dewulf@psy.kuleuven.ac.be, marc.craps@psy.kuleuven.ac.be,rene.bouwen@psy.kuleuven.ac.be, tharsi.taillieu@psy.kuleuven.ac.be)
**Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabru ̈ck, Albrechtstrasse 28, Osnabru ̈ck, Germany (E-mail: pahl@usf.uni-osnabrueck.de)

More is not always better: Coping with ambiguity in natural resources management

M. Brugnach a, b, *, A. Dewulf c, H.J. Henriksen d, P. van der Keur d

a Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands
b Institute for Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Germany c Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands d Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Denmark

Journal of Environmental Management xxx (2010) 1e7

ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE AND MANAGERIAL SENSEMAKING: WORKING THROUGH PARADOX

LOTTE S. LU ̈ SCHER Clavis Consultancy

MARIANNE W. LEWIS University of Cincinnati

Academy of Management Journal 2008, Vol. 51, No. 2, 221–240.

Sustainable Development: Mapping Different Approaches

Bill Hopwood, Mary Mellor, Geoff O’Brien Sustainable Cities Research Institute
6 North Street East,
University of Northumbria,

Newcastle on Tyne, NE1 8ST
Tel: 0191 227-3500 Fax: 0191 227-3066

E-mails:
Bill Hopwood: william.hopwood@unn.ac.uk

Sustainable Development, 13. pp. 38-52. ISSN 0968-0802

Published by: Wiley-Blackwell
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.244 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.244&gt;

Click to access Mapping_Sustainable_Development.pdf

The Environmental Goffman: Toward an Environmental Sociology of Everyday Life

BRADLEY H. BREWSTER

Gaylord Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA

MICHAEL MAYERFELD BELL

Department of Community & Environmental Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA

Society and Natural Resources, 23:45–57 Copyright # 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0894-1920 print=1521-0723 online
DOI: 10.1080/08941920802653505

An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?

H.R. Maier a, *, J.H.A. Guillaume b, H. van Delden a, c, G.A. Riddell a, M. Haasnoot d, e, J.H. Kwakkel e

a School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide SA 5005, Australia b Water & Development Research Group (WDRG), Aalto University, Tietotie 1E, Espoo 02150, Finland
c Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, Hertogsingel 11B, 6211 NC Maastricht, The Netherlands
d Deltares, Fresh Water Department, Delft, The Netherlands

e Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology Policy and Management, Delft, The Netherlands

Environmental Modelling & Software

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014

https://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/design/article/viewFile/1723/1324

Towards a user’s guide to scenarios – a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

Lena Borjeson1, Mattias Hojer1, Karl-Henrik Dreborg1,3, Tomas Ekvall2, Goran Finnveden1,3

Environmental strategies research – fms, Department of Urban studies, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm

Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg.

Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Stockholm

https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/servlets/purl/20688312

The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins

foresight, Vol. 9 Iss: 1 pp. 5 – 25 2007

Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models

J.J. Warmink a, *, J.A.E.B. Janssen a, b, M.J. Booij a, M.S. Krol a

a Department of Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands b Waterboard Rijn and IJssel, P.O. Box 148, 7000 AC Doetinchem, the Netherlands

Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 1518e1527

Wicked Problems: Implications for Public Policy and Management

Brian W. Head1 and John Alford2,3

Administration & Society 2015, Vol. 47(6) 711–739

DOI: 10.1177/0095399713481601

ORGANIZATIONS AS RHETORIC: KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE FIRMS AND THE STRUGGLE WITH AMBIGUITY

MATSALVESSON Universityof Gothenburg

Journal of Management Studies: 30:6 November 1993 0022-2380

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-6486.1993.tb00476.x

Forty years of wicked problems literature: forging closer links to policy studies,

Brian W. Head (2019)

Policy and Society, 38:2, 180-197, DOI: 10.1080/14494035.2018.1488797

https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1488797

Uncovering the origin of ambiguity in nature-inclusive flood infrastructure projects

Ronald E. van den Hoek 1Marcela Brugnach 1Jan P. M. Mulder 1,2 and Arjen Y. Hoekstra 1

Ecology and Society 19(2): 51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-06416-190251

Coping with Complexity, Uncertainty and Ambiguity in Risk Governance: A Synthesis

Ortwin Renn, Andreas Klinke, Marjolein van Asselt

AMBIO (2011) 40:231–246
DOI 10.1007/s13280-010-0134-0

Risk frames and multiple ways of knowing: Coping with ambiguity in oil spill risk governance in the Norwegian Barents Sea

Tuuli Parviainena,⁎, Annukka Lehikoinenb, Sakari Kuikkaa, P.ivi Haapasaaria

a University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, FI-

00014 Helsinki Finland

b University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Kotka Maritime Research Center,

Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.04.009

Environmental Science & Policy

Volume 98, August 2019, Pages 95-111

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111930022X

Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance

Art Dewulf and Robbert Biesbroek

Public Administration and Policy group, Wageningen University and Research, Netherlands

POLICY AND SOCIETY
2018, VOL. 37, NO. 4, 441–458 https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484

Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward

J. J. Warmink1 & M. Brugnach1 & J. Vinke-de Kruijf2 & R. M. J. Schielen1,3 & D. C. M. Augustijn1

Received: 1 March 2017 / Accepted: 21 June 2017 /

Water Resour Manage (2017) 31:4587–4600 DOI 10.1007/s11269-017-1767-6

The Implications of Complexity for Integrated Resources Management

C. Pahl-Wostl

Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Germany

Click to access Keynote_Pahl.pdf

A relational approach to deal with ambiguity in multi-actor governance for sustainability

M. Craps1 & M. F. Brugnach2

1Centre for Economics and Corporate Sustainability,
KU Leuven, Belgium
2Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands

WIT Transactions on Ecology and The Environment, Vol 199, © 2015 WIT Press www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541 (on-line)
doi:10.2495/RAV150201

Futures Studies: Theories and Methods

Sohail Inayatullah

https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/futures-studies-theories-and-methods/

Scenario thinking and usage among development actors

William Robert Avis

University of Birmingham 18 October 2017

Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis

Overview, assessment, and selection criteria

Hannah Kosow Robert Gaßner

DIE Research Project “Development Policy: Questions for the Future”

Bonn 2008

German Development Institute

SCENARIO PLANNING FOR STRATEGIC REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

Christopher Zegras1, Joseph Sussman2, Christopher Conklin3 Forthcoming (March 2004) in

ASCE Journal of Urban Planning and Development

How Scenario Planning Influences Strategic Decisions

A recent study sheds light on how the use of scenario planning affects executives’ strategic choices.

Shardul Phadnis, Chris Caplice, and Yossi Sheffi

May 27, 2016 MIT Sloan Management Review

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-scenario-planning-influences-strategic-decisions/

How to Make Sense of Weak Signals

There’s no sense in denying it: interpreting weak signals into useful decision making takes time and focus. These three stages can help you see the periphery—and act on it—much more clearly.

Paul J.H. Schoemaker and George S. Day

April 01, 2009

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-to-make-sense-of-weak-signals/

A Review of Scenario Planning Literature

T Chermack et al

Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy

Rather than trying to predict the future, organizations need to strengthen their abilities to cope with uncertainty. A new approach to scenario planning can help companies reframe their long-term strategies by developing several plausible scenarios.

Rafael Ramírez, Steve Churchhouse, Alejandra Palermo, and Jonas Hoffmann

June 13, 2017

Sloan Management Review

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/using-scenario-planning-to-reshape-strategy/

Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking

Paul J.H. Schoemaker

SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW/WINTER 1995

Chapter 10
The Learning Dimension of Adaptive Capacity: Untangling the Multi-level Connections

Alan Diduck

Adaptive Capacity and Environmental Governance

Derek Armitage l Ryan Plummer Editors

Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development

Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise

by Ulf Pillkahn

ISBN 978-3-89578-304-3

Risk frames and multiple ways of knowing: Coping with ambiguity in oil spill risk governance in the Norwegian Barents Sea

Tuuli Parviainena,⁎, Annukka Lehikoinenb, Sakari Kuikkaa, P.ivi Haapasaaria

a University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, FI-00014 Helsinki Finland

b University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Kotka Maritime Research Center, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland

Environmental Science and Policy 98 (2019) 95–111

How Issues Get Framed and Reframed When Different Communities Meet: A Multi-level Analysis of a Collaborative Soil Conservation Initiative in the Ecuadorian Andes

ART DEWULF1*, MARC CRAPS1 and GERD DERCON2

1Centre for Organizational and Personnel Psychology, Katholieke Universiteit, Leuven, Belgium

2International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibidan, Nigeria

Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology

J. Community Appl. Soc. Psychol., 14: 177–192 (2004)

Defining Uncertainty

A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support

W.E. WALKER1, P. HARREMO€EES2, J. ROTMANS3, J.P. VAN DER SLUIJS5, M.B.A. VAN ASSELT4, P. JANSSEN6 AND M.P. KRAYER VON KRAUSS2

1Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands,

2Environment & Resources DTU, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark,

3International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University, The Netherlands,

4Faculty of Arts and Culture, Maastricht University, The Netherlands,

5Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovations, Utrecht University, The Netherlands, and

6Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands

Integrated Assessment

2003, Vol. 00, No. 0, pp. 000–000

1389-5176/03/0000-000

A Structured Approach to Strategic Decisions

Reducing errors in judgment requires a disciplined process.

Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony

MIT Sloan Management Review

March 04, 2019

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/a-structured-approach-to-strategic-decisions/

A move toward scenario analysis

William R.Huss

Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures

Ilkka Tuomi

1Meaning Processing Ltd, Helsinki, Finland

2Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study (STIAS), Wallenberg Research Centre at Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa

Received:21November2018 |  Revised:15January2019 |  Accepted:15January2019

DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.11

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.11

A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning
– Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy

Prof. Dr. Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner and Dr. Stephan Stubner

2010

Click to access ap-no-6-scenario-based-approach-to-strategic-planning.pdf

The 4 Whys of Scenario Thinking

M Brain

About the Kearney-Oxford Scenarios Programme

AT Kearney

https://www.kearney.com/web/atkearney-oxford-scenarios-programme/scenarios-programme

Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints

Victor Tiberius

Tiberius European Journal of Futures Research (2019) 7:7 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-019-0160-5

Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research

Elisabeth A. Lloyd · Vanessa J. Schweizer

Synthese (2014) 191:2049–2088 DOI 10.1007/s11229-013-0353-6

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-013-0353-6

Cross-impact balances:
A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis

Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle T,1
University of Stuttgart, Institute for Social Sciences V, Research Unit Risk and Sustainability, Seidenstr. 36,

70174 Stuttgart, Germany

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73 (2006) 334–361

ScenarioWizard 4.3. Constructing Consistent Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis.

Manual.

Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

https://docplayer.net/81069764-Scenariowizard-4-3-constructing-consistent-scenarios-using-cross-impact-balance-analysis-manual-wolfgang-weimer-jehle.html

Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios

Vanessa Jine Schweizer and Elmar Kriegler

2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 044011

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044011/meta

Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations

DOI:10.1007/s10584-013-0908-z

Vanessa Jine Schweizer

Brian C. O’Neill

The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques

DOI:10.1108/14636680710727516

Peter Bishop

Andy Hines

Terry Collins

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228623754_The_current_state_of_scenario_development_An_overview_of_techniques

Should Probabilities Be Used with Scenarios?

Stephen M. Millett Futuring Associates LLC USA

Plausibility and probability in scenario planning

DOI:10.1108/FS-08-2012-0061

Rafael Ramirez

Cynthia Selin

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263366784_Plausibility_and_probability_in_scenario_planning

Click to access ACCEPTED_Plausibility_and_Probability_in_Scenario_Planning_March_24_2013.pdf

Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario

Volker Grienitz & Michael Hausicke & André-Marcel Schmidt

Eur J Futures Res (2014) 15:27

DOI 10.1007/s40309-013-0027-0

Foundations of Scenario Planning: The Story of Pierre Wack

By Thomas J Chermack

2017

ROLE OF SCENARIO PLANNING AND PROBABILITIES
IN ECONOMIC DECISION PROBLEMS – LITERATURE REVIEW AND NEW CONCLUSIONS

Helena GASPARS-WIELOCH page1image38230256*

Department of Operations Research, Faculty of Informatics and Electronic Economy, Poznan University of Economics and Business, Al. Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875, Poznań, Poland

*E-mail: helena.gaspars@ue.poznan.pl

https://doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.011

http://cibmee.vgtu.lt/index.php/verslas/2019/paper/viewFile/422/123

Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning

McKinsey on Finance Number 55, Summer 2015

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/dotcom/client_service/Corporate%20Finance/MoF/Issue%2055/MoF55_Overcoming_obstacles_to_effective_scenario_planning.ashx

Increasing the effectiveness of participatory scenario development through codesign

Marissa F. McBride 1Kathleen F. Lambert 2Emily S. Huff 3Kathleen A. Theoharides 4Patrick Field 5 and Jonathan R. Thompson 1

1Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, Massachusetts, 2Harvard Forest, Harvard University and Science Policy Exchange, Petersham, Massachusetts, 3Michigan State University, Department of Forestry, East Lansing, Michigan, 4Climate and Global Warming Solutions, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, Boston, Massachusetts, 5Consensus Building Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts

 E&S HOME > VOL. 22, NO. 3 > Art. 16

https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss3/art16/

Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities

Victor Tiberius a,⁎, Caroline Siglow a, Javier Sendra-García b

a University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany

b Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7467075/

Plotting Your Scenarios

Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz

GBN

PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES: SCENARIO ANALYSIS, DECISION TREES AND SIMULATIONS

Click to access probabilistic.pdf

Navigating Uncertain Times
A Scenario Planning Toolkit for the Arts & Culture Sector

Literature Review

Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation

DOI:10.1002/smj.4250140304

Paul Schoemaker

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220041993_Multiple_Scenario_Development_Its_Conceptual_and_Behavioral_Foundation

FORESIGHT: THE MANUAL

UNDP

UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE) 

Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries

UNDP

UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE) 

https://www.undp.org/publications/foresight-strategic-long-term-planning-tool-developing-countries

Plausibility indications in future scenarios

Wiek, A., Withycombe Keeler, L., Schweizer, V. and Lang, D.J. (2013)

Int. J. Foresight and Innovation Policy, Vol. 9, Nos. 2/3/4, 2013

Plausibility and probability in scenario planning

Rafael Ramirez and Cynthia Selin

Foresight · March 2014

DOI: 10.1108/FS-08-2012-0061

Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning

Paul J.H. Schoemaker ⁎, George S. Day, Scott A. Snyder Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 815–824

The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins

Foresight · February 2007

DOI: 10.1108/14636680710727516

Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures

Ilkka Tuomi1,2

Futures Foresight Sci. 2019;1:e11.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.11

Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development

Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise

by Ulf Pillkahn

Book

An Analysis and Categorization of Scenario Planning Scholarship from 1995-2016

Thomas J. Chermack Colorado State University USA

DOI:10.6531/JFS.201806.22(4).0004

Journal of Futures Studies, June 2018, 22(4): 45–60

https://jfsdigital.org/articles-and-essays/2018-2/vol-22-no-4-june-2018/an-analysis-and-categorization-of-scenario-planning-scholarship-from-1995-2016/

A review of scenario planning

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/A-review-of-scenario-planning-Amer-Daim/ad450aaf200096756634e84549da77c20963ae6a

Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: pitfalls and potential

Innovation, Dynamic Capabilities and Leadership

Paul J.H. Schoemaker, Sohvi Leih, David J. Teece March 23, 2018

Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK

Professor R. Bradley MacKay a,⁎, Dr. Veselina Stoyanova b

a The Gateway, North Haugh, School of Management, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland KY16 9RJ, UK

b Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow, Scotland G4 0QU, UK

Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 88–100

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302451

Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities

Victor Tiberius a,⁎, Caroline Siglow a, Javier Sendra-García b 

University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany

Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain

Journal of Business Research 121 (2020) 235–242

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7467075/

How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges

AngelaWilkinsona

RolandKupersbc

DianaMangalagiude

aFutures Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK

bTHNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam, The Netherlands

cSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, UK

dReims Management School, Reims, France

eSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 699-710

Special Issue: Scenario Method: Current developments in theory and practice

Edited by George Wright, George Cairns, Ron Bradfield

Volume 80, Issue 4, 

Pages 561-838 (May 2013)

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162512002971

Scenario methodology: New developments in theory and practice Introduction to the Special Issue

George Wright a,⁎, George Cairns b, Ron Bradfield c

a Warwick Business School, Coventry, UK
b RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
c Strathclyde Business School, Glasgow, UK

Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2013) xxx–xxx

Scanning the Periphery

by 

HBR 2005

Scenario Planning Literature

Recent Articles

Bouhalleb, Arafet and Ali Smida, “Scenario Planning: An investigation of the construct and its measurements,” Wiley Online Library, February 9, 2018

Favato, Giampiero, “Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach,” June 17, 2016

Gray, Jane, “Ofgem targets “flexible” scenario planning,” Network, October 12, 2016

Gray, Michael, “Scottish business scenario planning’ for independence over Brexit, minister confirms,” October 14, 2016

Hartung, Adam “The No. 1 Lesson from Hurricane Matthew and Brexit: Scenario Planning is Crucial,” October 7, 2016

Lang, Trudi, and Rafael Ramirez, “Building new social capital with scenario planning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Science Direct, July 8, 2017

Phadnis, Shardul, “How Scenario Planning Influences Strategic Decisions,” MIT Sloan Management Review, Summer 2016

Powch, Andrew, “Overcoming Uncertainty with the Aid of Scenario Planning,” Industry Week, October 17, 2017

Raford, Noah, “Online foresight platforms: Evidence for their impact on scenario planning and strategic foresight,” Elsevier, August 2015

Ramírez, R., & Selin, C., “Plausibility and probability in scenario planning,” Foresight, 16(1), 54-74, March 4, 2014

Ramirez, Rafael, Sheve Churchhouse, Alejandra Palermo, and Jonas Hoffman, Using Scenario Planning to Reshape StrategyMIT Sloan Management Review, June 13, 2017

Ramirez, Rafael, “How scenario planning makes strategy more robust,” Oxford Answers, January 28, 2020

Schoemaker, PJH, Scenario planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking, MIT Sloan Management Review, 1995

Schwarze, Margaret and Lauren J. Taylor, “Managing Uncertainty—Harnessing the Power of Scenario Planning,” The New England Journal of Medicine, July 20, 2017  

Wilkinson, A. and Kupers, R. “Living in the Futures,” Harvard Business Review, May 2013

Wilkinson, A. and Ramirez, R. “2010 Canaries in the Mind,” Journal of Future Studies

Books

Cairns, George and George Wright, Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World, Palgrave Macmillan, 2nd ed., 2018 

Harris, Jared D. and Michael J. Lenox, The Strategist’s Toolkit, Darden Business Publishing, 2013

Laudicina, Paul, World Out of Balance: Navigating Global Risks to Seize Competitive Advantage, McGraw Hill, 2005

Ramirez, Rafael and Angela Wilkinson, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press, May 24, 2016

Ramirez, Rafael, John W. Selsky and Kees van der Heijden, Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios, earthscan, 2010

Schwartz, Peter, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Crown Business Publishing, 1996

Van Der Heijden, Kees, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2010

Wade, Woody, Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2012


Have question or additional suggestions? Please contact Terry Toland

What are Problem Structuring Methods?

What are Problem Structuring Methods?

Source: PROBLEM STRUCTURING IN PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Problem structuring methods provide a methodological complement to theories of policy design. Arguably, structuring a problem is a prerequisite of designing solutions for that problem.4 In this context, problem structuring methods are metamethods. They are “about” and “come before” processes of policy design and other forms of problem solving.

Source: Strategic Development: Methods and Models

Key Terms

  • PSM
  • Soft OR
  • Hard OR
  • Unstructured Problems
  • Systems
  • System Sciences
  • SODA Strategic Options Development and Analysis
  • SSM Soft Systems Methodology
  • SCA Strategic Choice Approach
  • Robustness Analysis
  • Drama Theory
  • Interactive Planning
  • Scenario Planning
  • Critical Systems Heuristics
  • SWOT
  • Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing
  • Viable Systems Model VSM
  • System Dynamics
  • Decision Conferencing
  • Multi-methodology
  • John Mingers
  • Jonathan Rosenhead
  • John Morecroft
  • MC Jackson
  • Operational Research
  • Problem Structuring Methods PSM
  • Stafford Beer
  • Robert Dyson
  • Jay Forrester
  • Russell Ackoff
  • Robert Flood
  • Peter Checkland
  • Group Model Building
  • Behaviour Operational Research
  • Community Operations Research
  • Ill-structured versus Well-structured Problems
  • Wicked Versus Tame Problems
  • Ill-Defined versus Well-Defined Problems
  • Nigel Howard
  • Metagames
  • Hypergames

Problem Structuring Methods

Source: Past, present and future of problem structuring methods

The problematic situations for which PSMs aim to provide analytic assistance are characterized by

  • Multiple actors,
  • Differing perspectives, 
  • Partially conflicting interests,  
  • Significant intangibles,
  • Perplexing uncertainties.

The relative salience of these factors will differ between situations (and different methods are selective in the emphasis given to them). However, in all cases there is a meta-characteristic, that of complexity, arising out of the need to comprehend a tangle of issues without being able to start from a presumed consensual formulation. For an introduction to PSMs, see Rosenhead and Mingers, 2001

Source: Problem structuring methods in action

Strategic options development and analysis (SODA) is a general problem identification method that uses cognitive mapping as a modelling device for eliciting and recording individuals’ views of a problem situation. The merged individual cognitive maps (or a joint map developed within a workshop session) provide the framework for group discussions, and a facilitator guides participants towards commitment to a portfolio of actions.

Soft systems methodology (SSM) is a general method for system redesign. Participants build ideal-type conceptual models (CMs), one for each relevant world view. They compare them with perceptions of the existing system in order to generate debate about what changes are culturally feasible and systemically desirable. 

Strategic choice approach (SCA) is a planning approach centered on managing uncertainty in strategic situations. Facilitators assist participants to model the interconnectedness of decision areas. Interactive comparison of alternative decision schemes helps them to bring key uncertainties to the surface. On this basis the group identifies priority areas for partial commitment, and designs explorations and contingency plans.

Robustness analysis is an approach that focuses on maintaining useful flexibility under uncertainty. In an interactive process, participants and analysts assess both the compatibility of alternative initial commitments with possible future configurations of the system being planned for, and the performance of each configuration in feasible future environments. This enables them to compare the flexibility maintained by alternative initial commitments. 

Drama theory draws on two earlier approaches, meta games and hyper games. It is an interactive method of analysing co-operation and conflict among multiple actors. A model is built from perceptions of the options available to the various actors, and how they are rated. Drama theory looks for the “dilemmas” presented to the actors within this model of the situation. Each dilemma is a change point, tending to cause an actor to feel specific emotions and to produce rational arguments by which the model itself is redefined. When and only when such successive redefinitions have eliminated all dilemmas is the actors’ joint problem fully resolved. Analysts commonly work with one of the parties, helping it to be more effective in the rational-emotional process of dramatic resolution. (Descriptions based substantially on Rosenhead, 1996.)

Given the ill-defined location of the PSM/non- PSM boundary, there are a number of other methods with some currency that have at least certain family resemblances. These include critical systems heuristics (CSH) (Ulrich, 2000), interactive planning (Ackoff, 1981), and strategic assumption surfacing and testing (Mason and Mitroff, 1981). Other related methods which feature in this special issue are SWOT (Weihrich, 1998), scenario planning (Schoemaker, 1998), and the socio-technical systems approach (Trist and Murray, 1993). Those which are particularly close to the spirit of PSMs in at least some of their modes of use, and therefore thought to merit inclusion in Rosenhead and Mingers (2001), are the following:

Viable systems model (VSM) is a generic model of a viable organization based on cybernetic principles. It specifies five notional systems that should exist within an organization in some form––operations, co-ordination, control, intelligence, and policy, together with the appropriate control and communicational relationships. Although it was developed with a prescriptive intent, it can also be used as part of a debate about problems of organizational design and redesign (Harnden, 1990). 

System dynamics(SD) is a way of modelling peoples’ perceptions of real-world systems based especially on causal relationships and feedback. It was developed as a traditional simulation tool but can be used, especially in combination with influence diagrams (causal–loop diagrams), as a way of facilitating group discussion (Lane, 2000; Vennix, 1996).

Decision conferencing is a variant of the more widely known “decision analysis”. Like the latter, it builds models to support choice between decision alternatives in cases where the consequences may be multidimensional; and where there may be uncertainty about future events which affect those consequences. What distinguishes decision conferencing is that it operates in workshop mode, with one or more facilitators eliciting from the group of participants both the structure of the model, and the probabilities and utilities to be included in it. The aim is cast, not as the identification of an objectively best solution, but as the achievement of shared understanding, the development of a sense of common purpose, and the generation of a commitment to action (Phillips, 1989; Watson and Buede, 1987).

There are a number of texts which present a different selection of “softer” methods than do Rosenhead and Mingers. These include Flood and Jackson (1991), who concentrate on systems-based methods, Dyson and O’Brien (1998) who consider a range of hard and soft approaches in the area of strategy formulation; and Sorensen and Vidal (1999) who make a wide range of methods accessible to a Scandinavian readership. There is clearly an extensive repertoire of methods available. In fact it is common to combine together a number of PSMs, or PSMs together with more traditional methods, in a single intervention––a practice known as multimethodology (Mingers and Gill, 1997). So the range of methodological choice is wider even than a simple listing of methods might suggest.

Source: Are project managers ready for the 21th challenges? A review of problem structuring methods for decision support

Benefits of Problem Structuring Methods

Source: Are project managers ready for the 21th challenges? A review of problem structuring methods for decision support

My Related Posts

Systems and Organizational Cybernetics

Micro Motives, Macro Behavior: Agent Based Modeling in Economics

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Drama Theory: Choices, Conflicts and Dilemmas

Drama Theory: Acting Strategically

Quantitative Models for Closed Loop Supply Chain and Reverse Logistics

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

Stock Flow Consistent Input Output Models (SFCIO)

Stock Flow Consistent Models for Ecological Economics

Gantt Chart Simulation for Stock Flow Consistent Production Schedules

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

HP’s Megatrends

Global Flow of Funds: Statistical Data Matrix across National Boundaries

Credit Chains and Production Networks

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) / Financial Supply Chain Management (F-SCM)

Financial Social Accounting Matrix

Morris Copeland and Flow of Funds accounts

Systems Biology: Biological Networks, Network Motifs, Switches and Oscillators

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

Portfolio Planning Models for Corporate Strategic Planning

Cyber-Semiotics: Why Information is not enough

Truth, Beauty, and Goodness: Integral Theory of Ken Wilber

Key Sources of Research

Understanding behaviour in problem structuring methods interventions with activity theory.

White, L., Burger, K., & Yearworth, M. (2016).

European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), 983-1004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.044

https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/understanding-behaviour-in-problem-structuring-methods-interventi

“Is Value Focused Thinking a Problem Structuring Method or Soft OR or what?”

Keisler, Jeffrey,

(2012). 

Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series. Paper 42.


http://scholarworks.umb.edu/msis_faculty_pubs/42

Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty and Conflict

John Mingers, Jonathan Rosenhead

2001 Book Second ed.

The characteristics of problem structuring methods: A literature review

https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/the-characteristics-of-problem-structuring-methods-a-literature-review(e4bbf605-6df1-4a33-853c-2bc17dc18a8e).html

Problem structuring methods in action

John Mingers a,*, Jonathan Rosenhead b

a Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK 

b London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK

European Journal of Operational Research 152 (2004) 530–554

Click to access Problem%20structuring%20methods%20in%20action.pdf

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Problem-structuring-methods-in-action-Mingers-Rosenhead/752fdb5dfaddbc0a7946f281a9c454d6f4203542

Click to access Problem%20structuring%20methods%20in%20action.pdf

Introduction to the Special Issue: Teaching Soft O.R., Problem Structuring Methods, and Multimethodology.

John Mingers, Jonathan Rosenhead, (2011)

INFORMS Transactions on Education 12(1):1-3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/ited.1110.0073

Click to access Mingers-Rosenberg-PSM-SoftOR.pdf

https://pubsonline.informs.org/toc/ited/12/1

Problem Structuring Methods, 1950s-1989: An Atlas of the Journal Literature

Georgiou, Ion and Heck, Joaquim,

(June 26, 2017).

Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3077648 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3077648

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3077648

“An Investigation on the Effectiveness of a Problem Structuring Method in a GroupDecision-Making Process”

Thaviphoke, Ying.

(2020). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, Engineering Management, Old Dominion University,

DOI: 10.25777/cx7x-z403
https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/emse_etds/182

What’s the Problem? An Introduction to Problem Structuring Methods

Jonathan Rosenhead

Published Online:1 Dec 1996

https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.26.6.117

PROBLEM STRUCTURING IN PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

William N. Dunn
Graduate School of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh

Past, present and future of problem structuring methods

J Rosenhead

London School of Economics, London, UK

Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006), 1–7

Framing and Reframing as a Creative Problem Structuring Aid

Victoria J Mabin, and John Davies Management Group Victoria University of Wellington PO Box 600 Wellington
email: vicky.mabin@vuw.ac.nz

Tel +4-495 5140
email: john.davies@vuw.ac.nz Tel + 4-471 5382
Fax + 4-471 2200

Reassessing the scope of OR practice: the influences of problem structuring methods and the analytics movement

Ranyard, J.C., Fildes, R. and Hun, T-I (2014).

(LUMS Working Paper 2014:8).

Lancaster University: The Department of Management Science.

Reasoning maps for decision aid: an integrated approach for problem-structuring and multi-criteria evaluation


G Montibeller1∗, V Belton2, F Ackermann2 and L Ensslin3

1London School of Economics, London, UK; 2University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK; and 3Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC), Floriano ́polis, Brazil

Journal of the Operational Research Society (2008) 59, 575–589

Special issue on problem structuring research and practice

Fran Ackermann • L. Alberto Franco • Etie ̈nne Rouwette • Leroy White

EURO J Decis Process (2014) 2:165–172 DOI 10.1007/s40070-014-0037-6

Soft OR Comes of Age – But Not Everywhere!

Mingers, John (2011)

ISSN 0305-0483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2011.01.005

Omega, 39 (6). pp. 729-741

An Investigation on the Effectiveness of a Problem Structuring Method in a Group Decision-Making Process

Ying Thaviphoke
Old Dominion University, ythav001@odu.edu

2020

OR competences: the demands of problem structuring methods

Richard John Ormerod

EURO J Decis Process (2014) 2:313–340

DOI 10.1007/s40070-013-0021-6

Hard OR, Soft OR, Problem Structuring Methods, Critical Systems Thinking: A Primer

Hans G. Daellenbach

Department of Management University of Canterbury Christchurch, NZ

h.daellenbach@mang.canterbury.ac.nz

Are project managers ready for the 21th challenges? A review of problem structuring methods for decision support

José Ramón San Cristóbal Mateo

Emma Diaz Ruiz de Navamuel

María Antonia González Villa

https://repositorio.unican.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10902/13669/ijispm-050203.pdf?sequence=1

Towards a new framework for evaluating systemic problem structuring methods

Gerald Midgley  Robert Y. Cavana  John Brocklesby , Jeff L. Foote  David R.R. Wood , Annabel Ahuriri-Driscoll 

European Journal of Operational Research 229 (2013) 143–154

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221713000945

Problem structuring methods

Jonathan Rosenhead1

Chapter in book

(1) The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, England

Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-0611-X_806

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

2001 Edition | Editors: Saul I. Gass, Carl M. Harris

Beyond Problem Structuring Methods: Reinventing the Future of OR/MS

Author(s): M. C. Jackson

Source: The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 57, No. 7, Special Issue: Problem Structuring Methods (Jul., 2006), pp. 868-878

Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals on behalf of the Operational Research Society

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/4102274

Strategic Development: Methods and Models

Robert G. Dyson (Editor)Frances A. O’Brien (Editor)

ISBN: 978-0-471-97495-6 

May 1998 346 Pages

https://www.wiley.com/en-al/Strategic+Development:+Methods+and+Models-p-9780471974956

Group Model Building:
Problem Structuring, Policy Simulation and Decision Support

David F. Andersen, University at Albany
Jac A.M. Vennix, Radboud University Nijmegen George P. Richardson, University at Albany Etiënne A.J.A. Rouwette, Radboud University Nijmegen

Reassessing the Scope of OR Practice: the Influences of Problem Structuring Methods and the Analytics Movement

J. C. Ranyard, R. Fildes* and Tun-I Hu

The Department of Management Science Lancaster University Management School Lancaster LA1 4YX
UK

Portfolio Planning Models for Corporate Strategic Planning

Portfolio Planning Models for Corporate Strategic Planning

Key Terms and Ideas

  • Business And Its Policy
  • Concept of Strategy
  • Strategic Management
  • Vision, Mission, Objectives And Goals
  • Environment Analysis And Diagnosis
  • Strategic Advantage Analysis
  • Corporate Strategy
  • Michael Porter’s Generic Strategies
  • Formulation Of Functional Strategy
  • Types Of Strategies
  • Diversification Strategies For Companies
  • Turnaround, Retrenchment Divestment, And Liquidation Strategies For Companies
  • TOWS Matrix Analysis
  • BCG Matrix
  • Ansoff’s Matrix
  • ADL Matrix
  • The General Electric Model
  • Porter’s Five Forces Model
  • Mckinsey’s 7’s Framework
  • Value Chain Concept Analysis
  • Business And Investment Level Strategy
  • Vertical Integration And Strategic Alliances
  • Acquisitions And Joint Ventures
  • Tailoring Strategy Analysis
  • Industrial Environment Analysis
  • Strategic Change Management
  • Strategies For Competing In Globlizing Markets
  • Corporate Culture and Leadership
  • Strategic Control System
  • Matching Structure And Control Analysis
  • Strategy implementation And Control
  • Business Process Reengineering And Benchmarking
  • TQM, Six Sigma
  • Management And Contemporary Strategic Issues

Analytical Methods for Startegic Planning and Analysis

Image Source: The Strategic Development Process

Strategic Choices and Decisions

  • Product Portfolio (SBU Level) – What products should we sell/make?
  • Business Portfolio (Corporate Level)- What Businesses should we be in?

Analytical methods for Corporate Portfolio Planning

  • GE/Mckinsey Nine Cell Matrix
  • BCG Growth Share Matrix
  • Shell/Directional Policy Matrix DPM
  • ADL Strategic Conditions Matrix
  • Ansoff Matrix
  • Hofer/Schendel Matrix
  • and many other variants

BCG Growth Share Matrix

Image Source: BCG Matrix: Portfolio Analysis in Corporate Strategy

Image Source: THE PRODUCT PORTFOLIO

Image Source: Group Map

GE/McKinsey Nine Cell Matrix

Image Source: GE MCKINSEY MATRIX

Image Source: PRODUCT STRATEGY TOOLS – GE/MCKINSEY PORTFOLIO MATRIX

Shell/Directional Policy Matrix

Image Source: PRODUCT AND PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS

ADL Matrix

Image Source: ADL Matrix (Portfolio Management)

Ansoff Matrix

Image Source: ANSOFF MATRIX

Hofer/Schendel Matrix

Image Source: PRODUCT AND PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS

My Related Posts

Strategy | Strategic Management | Strategic Planning | Strategic Thinking

The Origins and History of Management Consulting

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

Profiles in Operations Research

History of Operations Research

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

George Dantzig and History of Linear Programming

Key Sources of Research

Strategic planning : models and analytical techniques :

Dyson, Robert G.

Chichester, West Sussex, England ; New York : Wiley, c1990.

Strategic Portfolio Planning Systems.

In: Multinational Strategic Planning. Palgrave Macmillan, London.

Channon D.F., Jalland M. (1978)

The Strategic Development Process

Robert G. Dyson, Jim Bryant, John Morecroft and Frances O’Brien

https://www.academia.edu/26231766/The_Strategic_Development_Process

Why you’ve got to put your portfolio on the move

July 22, 2020 |

McKinsey

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/why-youve-got-to-put-your-portfolio-on-the-move


The Corporate Portfolio

JANUARY 01, 1977 By Bruce Henderson


The Product Portfolio

JANUARY 01, 1970 By Bruce Henderson

https://www.bcg.com/publications/1970/strategy-the-product-portfolio


BCG Classics Revisited: The Growth Share Matrix

JUNE 04, 2014 

By Martin Reeves, Sandy Moose, and Thijs Venema

What Is the Growth Share Matrix?

BCG

https://www.bcg.com/en-us/about/our-history/growth-share-matrix

Enduring Ideas: The GE–McKinsey nine-box matrix

September 1, 2008 | Article

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/enduring-ideas-the-ge-and-mckinsey-nine-box-matrix

Enduring Ideas: Classic McKinsey frameworks that continue to inform management thinking

July 1, 2008 | Article

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/enduring-ideas-classic-mckinsey-frameworks-that-continue-to-inform-management-thinking

Corporate Portfolio Management:

Appraising Four Decades of Academic Research

by Michael Nippa, Ulrich Pidun, and Harald Rubner

Academy of Management Perspectives

Not dead yet: the rise, fall and persistence of the BCG Matrix

Problems and Perspectives in Management, Vol. 15, Iss. 1, pp. 19-34,

Dag Øivind Madsen

Date Written: March 27, 2017

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2954610

Product and portfolio analysis

An Empirical Comparison of Standardized Portfolio Models

Jerry Wind

Vijay Mahajan

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260183736_An_Empirical_Comparison_of_Standardized_Portfolio_Models

Designing Product and Business Portfolio

Jerry Wind

Vijay Mahajan

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/260183490_Designing_Product_and_Business_Portfolio

https://hbr.org/1981/01/designing-product-and-business-portfolios

Effects of portfolio planning methods on decision making: experimental results

J. Scott Armstrong
University of Pennsylvania, armstrong@wharton.upenn.edu

Roderick J. Brodie
University of Auckland, r.brodie@auckland.ac.nz

Manage Beyond Portfolio Analysis

HBR 1984

https://hbr.org/1984/01/manage-beyond-portfolio-analysis

Comparison and Usage of the Boston Consulting- portfolio and the McKinsey-portfolio

Portfolio Analysis Models: A Review

Udo-Imeh, Philip T Edet, William E. Anani, Rajunor B.

Strategic Product Portfolio Management:

A Focus on the Bio-Pharmaceutical Sector and Roche

Strategic Analysis through the General Electric/McKinsey Matrix: An Application to the Italian Fashion Industry

BCG Matrix

GroupMap

https://www.groupmap.com/map-templates/bcg-matrix/

The directional policy matrix—tool for strategic planning

S.J.Q.RobinsonaR.E.HichensbD.P.Wade

Long Range Planning

1978

Corporate Strategy: Portfolio Models

Eli Segev

International Thomson Pub., 1995 – Business & Economics – 188 pages

Ansoff Matrix

Product Strategy Tools – GE/McKinsey Portfolio Matrix

http://pmoxon.blogspot.com/2011/09/product-strategy-tools-gemckinsey.html

Methods of strategic analysis and proposal method of measuring productivity of a company

Wasilij Rudnicki

SOME METHODOLOGICAL COMMENTS ON THE DIRECTIONAL POLICY MATRIX

PROFESSOR MALCOLM MCDONALD

Cranfield School of Management

Application of ADL Matrix in Developed Industrial Companies

  • October 2009

Samir Ži

Tonči Mikac

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258518402_Application_of_ADL_Matrix_in_Developed_Industrial_Companies

THE LIFE-CYCLE APPROACH TO STRATEGIC PLANNING

Arnoldo C. Hax and Nicolas S. Majluf

WP #1493-83 October 1983

BCG Matrix: Portfolio Analysis in Corporate Strategy

ADL Matrix (Portfolio Management)

https://www.comindwork.com/weekly/2019-02-04/productivity/adl-matrix-portfolio-management

AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP’S PORTFOLIO MODEL

Malcolm B. Coate

WORKING PAPER NO. 71

August 1982

PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS – A USEFUL MANAGEMENT TOOL

Samir Žic, Hari Hadžić, Milan Ikonić

The directional policy matrix — a new aid to corporate planning

Available online 19 June 2002.

Prepared by a Member of the Editorial Board from Material published by Shell International Petroleum Company Limited

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0377841X77900432

Strategic Management and Business Policy: For Managers and Consultant

by B Hiriyappa

GE McKinsey Matrix

Expert Program Management

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

There are a few Institutions which do general long term trends and scenario analysis.

  • US DNI NIC
  • Atlantic Council
  • UK MOD
  • Shell International
  • HP
  • EY
  • WEF

There are many institutions both public and private which do issue or industry specific scenarios, trends, and futures analysis.

  • Water
  • Food
  • Energy
  • Climate Change
  • Globalization
  • Urbanization
  • Governance
  • Security
  • Technology
  • Demographic
  • Industry specific
  • Nationalism
  • Protectionism
  • Healthcare
  • Human Development

Why do Scenarios?

Its a way to internalize an organization’s external environment. By doing so, managers and leaders can future-proof their strategy.

Image Source: If only we knew. With scenario planning, we do. Here’s how to prepare better for the next crisis

Image Source: Global Business Network

Image Source: WHY THE SOCIAL SECTOR NEEDS SCENARIO PLANNING NOW

Image Source: Megatrends 2020 and beyond /EY Mega Trends

The article below was published in MIT Sloan Review.

The World in 2030: Nine Megatrends to Watch

Where will we be in 2030? 

I don’t usually play the futurist game — I’m more of a “presentist,” looking at the data we have right now on fast-moving megatrends that shape the world today. But a client asked me to paint a picture of what the big trends tell us about 2030. And I’d say we do have some strong indications of where we could be in 11 years. 

The directions we go and choices we make will have enormous impacts on our lives, careers, businesses, and the world. Here are my predictions of how nine important trends will evolve by 2030 — listed in order roughly from nearly certain to very likely to hard to say

Nine Global Trends on the Horizon

Demographics: There will be about 1 billion more of us, and we will live longer. The world should reach 8.5 billion people by 2030, up from 7.3 billion in 2015. The fastest growing demographic will be the elderly, with the population of people over 65 years old at 1 billion by 2030. Most of those new billion will be in the middle class economically, as the percentage of citizens in dire poverty continues to drop (a rare sustainability win). Even as the middle swells, however, the percentage of all new wealth accruing to the very top of the pyramid will continue to be a major, and destabilizing, issue. That said, the other megatrends, especially climate change, could slow or change the outcomes here.

Urbanization: Two-thirds of us will live in cities. The urbanization of our populations will increase, creating more megacities as well as small- and medium-size metropolises. Countervailing forces will include a rising cost of living in the most desirable cities. The effects will include the need for more big buildings with better management technologies (big data and AI that makes buildings much more efficient), and we will need more food moved in from where we grow it to where we eat it — or rapidly expand urban agriculture.

Transparency: Our world will become even more open — and less private.It’s hard to imagine that the trend to track everything will be going anywhere but in one direction: a radically more open world. The amount of information collected on every person, product, and organization will grow exponentially, and the pressure to share that information — with customers and consumers in particular — will expand. The tools to analyze information will be well-developed and will make some decision-making easier; for instance, it will be easier to choose products with the lowest carbon footprints, highest wages for employees, and fewest toxic ingredients. But all these tools will shatter privacy in the process.

Privacy Policy

Climate Crisis: The climate will continue to change quickly and feature regular, extreme weather everywhere. Yes, there’s still uncertainty about how everything will play out exactly, but not about whether the climate is changing dramatically and dangerously. Significant inertia in both atmospheric and economic/human systems allows for a more confident prediction of what will happen in just 11 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made clear how critical it is to radically alter the path of carbon emissions to hold the world to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. But that’s not likely to happen with current levels of commitment in global governments: The important Paris climate accord of 2015, in theory, agrees to hold warming to 2 degrees Celsius. But in practice, what countries have committed to so far will only hold us to no more than 3 degrees of warming. By 2030, we are very likely to already be at or approaching the 1.5 mark. 

The results of climate change will be unrelenting. Many highly populated coastal areas will be in consistent trouble, as sea levels rise. The natural world will be much less rich, with drastic to catastrophic declines in populations of many species and major to total losses of ecosystems like coral. Droughts and floods will stress global breadbasket regions and shift where we grow major crops. The Arctic will be ice-free in the summer (this will allow ships to move freely in this region, which is technically good for shorter supply chains but a Pyrrhic victory at best). Between seas, heat, and shifts in water availability, mass migrations will likely have begun. By 2030, we will have much better clarity on how bad the coming decades after that point will be. We will know whether the melting of the major ice sheets will be literally inundating most coastal cities, and if we’re truly approaching an “Uninhabitable Earth” in our lifetimes. 

Resource Pressures: We will be forced to more aggressively confront resource constraints. To keep volumes of major commodities (such as metals) in line with economic growth, we will need to more quickly embrace circular models: sourcing much less from virgin materials, using recycled content and remanufactured products, and generally rethinking the material economy. Water will be a stressed resource, and it seems likely that many cities will be constantly in a state of water shortage. We will need more investment in water tech and desalination to help. 

Clean Tech: The transformation of our grid, our roadways, and our buildings to zero-carbon technology will be surprisingly far along. Here’s some good news: Due to continuing drops in the cost of clean technologies, renewable energy is dramatically on the rise, making up more than half the global new power capacity every year since 2015. By 2030, effectively no new additions of generating capacity will come from fossil-fuel-based technologies.Electric vehicles will be a large part of the transportation equation: While estimates about the share of EVs on the road by 2030 range from the teens to nearly 100% (assuming early retirement of internal combustion engines), nearly all sales of new vehicles will be EVs. This will be driven by dramatic reductions in the cost of batteries and strict legislation banning fossil-fuel engines. We will also see an explosion of data-driven technologies that make buildings, the grid, roadways, and water systems substantially more efficient.

Technology Shifts: The internet of things will have won the day, and every new device will be connected. Proponents of the “singularity” have long projected that by around 2030, affordable AI will achieve human levels of intelligence. AI and machine learning will plan much of our lives and make us more efficient, well beyond choosing driving routes to optimize traffic. Technology will manipulate us even more than it does today — Russian interference in U.S. elections may look quaint. AI will create some new kinds of jobs but will also nearly eliminate entire segments of work, from truck and taxi drivers to some high-skill jobs such as paralegals and engineers.

Global Policy: There’s an open question about how we’ll get important things done. I’m thinking specifically about whether global governments and institutions will be working in sync to aggressively fight climate change and resource pressures, and tackle vast inequality and poverty — or whether it will be every region and ethnic group for itself. Predicting politics is nearly impossible, and it’s hard to imagine how global policy action on climate and other megatrends will play out. The Paris Agreement was a monumental start, but countries, most notably the U.S., have lately retreated from global cooperation in general. Trade wars and tariffs are all the rage in 2019. It seems likely that, even more than today, it will be up to business to play a major role in driving sustainability.

Populism: The rise of nationalism and radicalism may increase … or it won’t. Even less certain than policy is the support, or lack thereof, of the mass of people for different philosophies of governing. In recent years, populists have been elected or consolidated power in countries as varied as the U.S., Brazil, and Hungary. And yet, in recent weeks, citizens in countries like Turkey, Algeria, and Sudan have pushed back on autocracy. Will that trend continue?

How Should Business Prepare?

Laying out strategies for companies to navigate this likely future world is a book-length conversation. But let me suggest a few themes of action to consider:

  • Engage everyone in the sphere of the business world on climate. A dangerously changing climate is the biggest threat humanity has ever faced. But it’s not all set in stone … yet. Companies have an economic incentive and moral responsibility to work hard to reduce the damage as much as possible. Engage employees (stamp out climate denial), talk to consumers and customers about climate issues through your products, and change internal rules on corporate finance to make investment decisions with flexible hurdle rates that favor pro-climate spending. Most importantly, use influence and lobbying power to demand, at all levels of government, an escalating public price on carbon — and publicly admonish industry lobbying groups that don’t.
  • Consider the human aspect of business more. As new technologies sweep through society and business, the change will be jarring. Those changes and pressures are part of why people are turning to populist leaders who promise solutions. Business leaders should think through what these big shifts mean for the people that make up our companies, value chains, and communities.
  • Embrace transparency. To be blunt, you don’t have a choice. Each successive generation will expect more openness from the companies they buy from and work for. 
  • Listen to the next generation. By 2030, the leading edge of millennials will be nearing 50, and they and Gen Z will make up the vast majority of the workforce. Listen to them now about their priorities and values. 

Predicting the future means projecting forward from what’s already happening, while throwing in expected inertia in human and natural systems. It can give us an impressionistic picture of the world of the future. Our choices matter a great deal, as individuals and through our organizations and institutions. Business, in particular, will play a large role in where the world goes. Employees, customers, and even investors increasingly demand that the role of business be a positive one. 

Look, we could all just wait and see where these historic waves take us. But I prefer that we all work proactively to ensure that a better, thriving future is the one we choose.

About the Author

Andrew Winston is founder of Winston Eco-Strategies and an adviser to multinationals on how they can navigate humanity’s biggest challenges and profit from solving them. He is the coauthor of the international best seller Green to Gold and the author of the popular book The Big Pivot: Radically Practical Strategies for a Hotter, Scarcer, and More Open World. He tweets @andrewwinston.

a database of reports globally published by many institutions.

Global Trends and Future Scenarios

IDB InterAmerican Development Bank

Key Institutions doing Global Scenarios, Trends, and Futures analysis

Shell Scenarios

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html

HP Mega Trends

https://hpmegatrends.com

World Economic Forum

Global Risks Report

https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020

US DNI NIC Global Trends

Paradox of Progress

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends-home

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/digital-extras/previous-reports

Atlantic Council

Global Risks 2035 Update

Decline or New Renaissance?

Mathew J. Burrows 2019

UK MOD Global Strategic Trends
EY Mega Trends

Megatrends 2020 and beyond

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/megatrends

OECD

The Long View: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/scenarios-for-the-world-economy-to-2060.htm

EU Parliament
World Bank

The Future is Now: Scenarios to 2025 and Beyond

J. Warren Evans

https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/full/10.1596/978-1-4648-0307-9_ch4

International Monetary Fund

World Economic Outlook

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

World Resources Institute

https://www.wri.org/publication/which-world-scenarios-21st-century

United Nations

McKinsey Global Institute

MGI in 2019

Highlights of our research this year

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/Innovation/Ten%20highlights%20from%20our%202019%20research/MGI-in-2019-A-compendium-of-our-research-this-year-vF.ashx

McKinsey and Company

The Use and Abuse of Scenarios

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-use-and-abuse-of-scenarios

McKinsey Special Collections
Trends and global forces

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Strategy%20and%20Corporate%20Finance/Our%20Insights/Strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance%20special%20collection/Final%20PDFs/McKinsey-Special-Collections_Trends-and-global-forces.ashx

Shifting tides: Global economic scenarios for 2015–25

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/shifting-tides-global-economic-scenarios-for-2015-25

Boston Consulting Group BCG

Have you future Proofed your strategy?

APRIL 17, 2020 By Alan InyHans KuipersEnrique Rueda-Sabater, and Christian Haakonsen

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/four-scenarios-assess-business-resilience

International Food Policy Research Institute IFPRI

Global food projections to 2020 

emerging trends and alternative futures

https://www.ifpri.org/publication/global-food-projections-2020

World Energy Council

WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS: COMPOSING ENERGY FUTURES TO 2050

https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/entry/world-energy-scenarios-composing-energy-futures-to-2050

EPRI Electric Power Research Institute

A Perspective on the Future of Energy: Scenarios, Trends, and Global Points of View

Millienium Project

THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT

The Institute for the Future

My Related Posts

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Strategy | Strategic Management | Strategic Planning | Strategic Thinking

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

On Anticipation: Going Beyond Forecasts and Scenarios

HP’s Megatrends

Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility

History of Operations Research

Profiles in Operations Research

Jay W. Forrester and System Dynamics

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Short term Thinking in Investment Decisions of Businesses and Financial Markets

The Origins and History of Management Consulting

Multilevel Approach to Research in Organizations

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

Networks and Hierarchies

Hierarchy Theory in Biology, Ecology and Evolution

Systems Biology: Biological Networks, Network Motifs, Switches and Oscillators

Growth and Form in Nature: Power Laws and Fractals

Shapes and Patterns in Nature

Systems View of Life: A Synthesis by Fritjof Capra

Multiplex Financial Networks

Boundaries and Networks

Key Sources of Research

Future Population Growth

by Max Roser

Our World in Data

This article was first published in 2014. It was last revised in November 2019.

https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth

Future Studies

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies

Global Foresight 2050 – Six global scenarios and implications for the forest sector 

AUTHORS: Sten Nilsson, Fredrik Ingemarson
PUBLISHED: 2017, Uppsala
PUBLISHER: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)

An overview of global energy scenarios by 2040: identifying the driving forces using cross‑impact analysis method

S. Ghasemian1 · A. Faridzad1 · P. Abbaszadeh2 · A. Taklif1 · A. Ghasemi1 · R. Hafezi3

Received: 27 November 2019 / Revised: 11 March 2020 / Accepted: 6 April 2020

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-020-02738-5

Learning from the Future

How to make robust strategy in times of deep uncertainty 

From the Magazine (July–August 2020)

https://hbr.org/2020/07/learning-from-the-future

Why the Social Sector Needs Scenario Planning Now

BCG

OCTOBER 01, 2020 

https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/why-social-sector-needs-scenario-planning

Future Worlds

PA Consulting

https://www.paconsulting.com/insights/2020/futureworlds/

Directions in Scenario Planning Literature – A Review of the Past Decades

Celeste Amorim Varuma, Carla Meloa
aDepartment of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro,

Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

The Century Ahead:
Four Global Scenarios

Christi Electris, Paul Raskin, Rich Rosen, and John Stutz

Tellus

https://greattransition.org

Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like?

September 16, 2020

CSIS

https://www.csis.org/analysis/four-scenarios-geopolitical-order-2025-2030-what-will-great-power-competition-look

Futurology Why it’s worth reading crazy-sounding scenarios about the future

Speculating about the future can make it easier to respond to unexpected events

Jul 6th 2019

Economist

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/07/06/why-its-worth-reading-crazy-sounding-scenarios-about-the-future

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY

Scenarios for the United States in 2030

Johanna Zmud, Liisa Ecola, Peter Phleps, Irene Feige

Rand

Future energy: In search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends

Jennifer Morris, David Hone, Martin Haigh, Andrei Sokolov and Sergey Paltsev

November 2020

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

2018 Food, Water, Energy and Climate Outlook 

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Consensus Forecasts

Global Outlook 2020 – 2030

The Conference Board

Global Economic Outlook

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus

A new approach in support of food security and sustainable agriculture

FAO

The Food Water Energy Nexus

UNECE

https://www.unece.org/env/water/nexus

Water, Food and Energy Nexus in Asia and the Pacific

UNESCAP

Developing the Pardee RAND Food-Energy-Water Security Index

Toward a Global Standardized, Quantitative, and Transparent Resource Assessment

by Henry H. WillisDavid G. GrovesJeanne S. RingelZhimin MaoShira EfronMichele Abbott

RAND

https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL165.html

Introduction to the water-energy nexus

Article — 23 March 2020

IEA

https://www.iea.org/articles/introduction-to-water-and-energy

Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030

McKinsey

WEF

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/Metals%20and%20Mining/PDFs/mining_metals_scenarios.aspx

The Long View: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060

OECD

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/scenarios-for-the-world-economy-to-2060.htm

Risk, Resilience, and Alternative Futures: Scenario-building at the World Economic Forum

Christina Garsten, Adrienne Sörbom

CBS

https://research.cbs.dk/en/publications/risk-resilience-and-alternative-futures-scenario-building-at-the-

If only we knew. With scenario planning, we do. Here’s how to prepare better for the next crisis

WEF

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/scenario-planning-is-the-what-if-in-business-here-s-how-it-works/

Energy and Climate Scenarios

IHS Markit

https://ihsmarkit.com/products/energy-climate-scenarios.html

The World in 2030: Nine Megatrends to Watch

Andrew S. Winston 

May 07, 2019

MIT Sloan Review

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-world-in-2030-nine-megatrends-to-watch/

The future of capitalism: Trends, scenarios and prospects for the future

Gerard Delanty

First Published January 30, 2019 

Journal of Classical Sociology

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1468795X18810569

EYQ Mega Trends

Year 2020 Mega Trends

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/megatrends

Year 2016 Megatrends

Year 2018 Megatrends

Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis

Highlights from the report February 2017

Deloitte and WEF

Global Risks 2035: The Search for a New Normal

Atlantic Council

2016

Vision 2040: Global Scenarios for the Oil and Gas Industry

Deloitte

The future of Asia

Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization

MGI 2020

Rise of Debt and Market Based Finance

Rise of Debt and Market Based Finance

It is also known as Non Bank finance or Shadow Banking.

The key difference between traditional banking and shadow banking is fragmented credit chains in the shadow banking.

Traditional Banking does

  • Maturity Transformation
  • Liquidity Transformation
  • Credit Transformation

While traditional banking has backstops

  • Deposit Insurance
  • Central bank

Shadow Banks are not regulated and do not have advantage of backstops.

Hence they are susceptible to systemic risk and runs.

Questions

  • What is Market based Finance?
  • How big is the market?
  • Institutions?
  • Instruments?
  • Who are the borrowers?
  • Who are the investors?
  • What are the risks in market based finance?
  • Role of Central Banks?
  • How to minimize risks?
  • Regulations? Macro Prudential policies?
  • How are banks involved in market based finance?
  • How are they connected to each other and others?

Key Terms

  • Market based Finance MBF
  • Non Bank Credit Intermediation NCBI
  • Shadow Banking
  • Financial Stability
  • Systemic Risk
  • Liquidity Risk
  • Broker Dealers
  • Non Bank Finance NBF
  • Balance Sheet Economics
  • Market Makers
  • Capital Markets
  • Money Markets
  • Money View
  • Money Flows
  • Network Dynamics
  • Regulatory Arbitrage
  • Credit Chains
  • Fragmented Credit Chains
  • Financial Supply Chains
  • Credit Chain Length
  • Growth of Debt

Growth and Size of Market based Finance

Image Source: BANK AND NONBANK LENDING OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS

Image Source: Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

Image Source: The Shadow Banking System in the United States: Recent Developments and Economic Role

Image Source: Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

Image Source: NON-BANK FINANCE: TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

Image Source: THE GROWTH OF NON-BANK FINANCE AND NEW MONETARY POLICY TOOLS 

Image Source: SHADOW BANKING AND MARKET BASED FINANCE

Structural Dynamics of Banking and Financial System

Changes prior to Global Financial Crisis

  • Rise of Debt
  • Rise of Market Based Finance
  • Increase in capital flows both domestic and cross border

Debt dynamics is related to assets side of balance sheet of financial intemediatory.

Market based Finance is related to liabilities side of balance sheet of Financial Intermediatory.

If the chains of financial intermediation are long, then both assets and liabilities of each participant are linked.

Intermediation results in increase of capital flows. From money markets to capital markets. From deposits to loans. From liabilities to assets. There is both pull and push of money flows in the financial system. Demand for capital and supply of capital. They both are linked by banks and non bank finance. Growth of debt is linked to growth of money markets and non bank finance.

Size of Nonfinancial Business and Household Credit

Image Source: FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT – NOVEMBER 2020

In a future post I will discuss debt in US and global financial system.

Please see my related posts for evolution of Financial System Complexity and Its dynamics.

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Funding Sources and Liquidity for US Commercial Banks

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Size and complexity arise together. Along with balance sheet expansion comes changes in links with counterparties (financial networks and interconnections).

Research continues in this area by several institutions and academics.

  • OECD
  • BIS
  • FED RESERVE
  • ECB
  • FSB
  • BOE
  • IMF
  • BOF
  • Others

Source: Structural developments in global financial intermediationThe rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation

The global financial crisis of 2008 underlined the importance for policy makers in understanding the scale and types of financial intermediation in their economies. During the financial crisis, non-bank financial intermediation was of particular concern to authorities, as such forms of ‘shadow banking’, contributed to both the root causes of the crisis, the transmission of financial contagion, and the amplification of shocks.

As this report is published, the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus Covid-19 has caused a global health crisis, has brought economic activity in some sectors to a halt, and has presented the greatest challenge to the global financial system since 2008. As then, understanding financial intermediation activities is critical to mapping the faultlines in the global financial system and mounting effective policy responses.

However, the shape of financial intermediation has changed in important ways since the global financial crisis. Activities in non-bank intermediation, including market-based intermediaries like investment funds and securitised products, have grown and are increasingly interconnected with financial markets. Understanding the interplay between these elements, and the benefits and risks of each, offers a more complete understanding of how global finance can contribute to sustainable economic growth. It also helps provide the full picture needed to help policy makers prepare for and respond to shocks, including pandemics.

“Structural developments in global financial intermediation: The rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation” shines a light on the evolution of global financial intermediation in three key ways. First, it maps the broad-based growth of financial intermediation relative to GDP in many advanced and emerging market economies, and with this growth a shift toward market-based finance. Second, it assesses the shift from equity to debt markets, and the growing imbalances in sovereign and corporate debt markets during a period of highly accommodative monetary policies. Third, it draws attention to key activities in credit intermediation that could contribute to structural vulnerabilities in the global financial system, including: a sharp rise of below-investment grade corporate debt, in particular leverage loans and collateralised loan obligations; the growth of open-ended investment funds that purchase high-yield debt and leveraged loans; and risks associated with the large stock of bank contingent convertible debt.

While these various activities have helped to satisfy investors’ reach for yield during years of market exuberance, they represent new potential faultlines of systemic risk in the event of exogenous shocks, be they from trade tensions, geopolitical risks or the current global pandemic. This report underlines the need for policy frameworks to adapt to market-based finance, and fully reflect the interaction between monetary, prudential, and regulatory tools on credit intermediation. It also underlines the need for dynamic microprudential and activities-based tools to help mitigate excessive risk taking with respect to liquidity and leverage.

By mapping the global financial system, evaluating growing imbalances and risks that could amplify shocks, and assessing the interaction between macro and regulatory tools, this report provides a practical complement to the OECD’s Policy Framework for Effective and Efficient Financial Regulations. Financial authorities should use this analysis to inform both their assessments of activities and risks, and efforts to maximise available tools to harness the benefits of market-based finance to support fair, efficient markets and sustainable economic growth.

Greg Medcraft Director, OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs

Image Source: UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS INHERENT IN SHADOW BANKING: A PRIMER AND PRACTICAL LESSONS LEARNED

Image Source: THE ECONOMICS OF SHADOW BANKING 

Image Source: IS SHADOW BANKING REALLY BANKING?

Table Source: SHADOW BANKING AND MARKET BASED FINANCE

Table 1. A Stylized View of Structural Characteristics of Credit-based Intermediation

Characteristic:Traditional BankingShadow BankingMarket-based Finance
Key Risk TransformationsLiquidity, maturity, leverageCredit enhancement,liquidity, maturity, leverageLess emphasis on credit enhancement and less opaque vs. shadow banking
Institutions Involved in Intermediation Single entityCan be many entities, interconnected through collateral chains and credit guaranteesSingle/few entities
Formal Ex-anteBackstopYesNo / IndirectNo
Implied Sponsor Supportn.a.Yes, can sometimes be contingent liabilitiesNo(insolvency remote)
Example of EntitiesCommercial bankSynthetic CDO, Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV), CNAV MMF, ABCP ConduitBond mutual fund, Distressed debt or PE partnership,Direct lending by pension fund
Main Form of LiabilitiesDebt and deposits,Wholesale & retail-financedDebt,Mainly wholesale financedHighly diverse –Short and long-term debt and equity,Retail & wholesale financed
Key Resulting Financial Stability Risk Systemic risk(institutional spillovers)Systemic risk(institutional spillovers)Shift in price of risk (market risk premia)

My Related Posts

Shadow Banking

Economics of Broker-Dealer Banks

Evolution of Banks Complexity

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Repo Chains and Financial Instability

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Funding Sources and Liquidity for US Commercial Banks

Funding Strategies of Banks

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Key sources of Research

The growth of non-bank finance and new monetary policy tools 

Adrien d’Avernas, Quentin Vandeweyer, Matthieu Darracq Pariès  

20 April 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/growth-non-bank-finance-and-new-monetary-policy-tools

Financial Stability Report

November 2019

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Financial Intermediaries, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy

Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 346 September 2008

US BROKER-DEALER LIQUIDITY IN THE TIME OF FINANCIAL CRISIS

https://www.shearman.com/perspectives/2020/05/us-broker-dealer-liquidity-in-the-time-of-financial-crisis

Unconventional monetary policy and funding liquidity risk

ECB

Structural developments in global financial intermediation

The rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation

by

Robert Patalano and Caroline Roulet*

OECD

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/structural-developments-in-global-financial-intermediation-the-rise-of-debt-and-non-bank-credit-intermediation_daa87f13-en

Financial Stability Review, May 2020

ECB

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202005~1b75555f66.en.html#toc1

Structural changes in banking after the crisis

Report prepared by a Working Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was chaired by Claudia Buch (Deutsche Bundesbank) and B Gerard Dages (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

January 2018

BIS

BANK-BASED OR MARKET-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHICH IS BETTER?

Ross Levine

Working Paper 9138 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9138

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
September 2002

Non-bank finance: trends and challenges

Financial Stability Review

Bank of France

2018

The Origins of Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: Germany, Japan, and the United States

Sigurt Vitols*

January 2001

Financial Stability Report

August 2020

Bank of England

Market-Based Finance:
Its Contributions and Emerging Issues

May 2016

Financial Conduct Authority

Bank-Based Versus Market-Based Financing: Implications for Systemic Risk

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322088863_Bank-Based_Versus_Market-Based_Financing_Implications_for_Systemic_Risk

Off the radar: The rise of shadow banking in Europe 

Martin Hodula  

16 March 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/radar-rise-shadow-banking-europe

Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2019

2020

FSB

https://www.fsb.org/2020/01/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2019/

Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2018

FSB 2019

https://www.fsb.org/2019/02/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2018/

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017

FSB 2018

https://www.fsb.org/2018/03/global-shadow-banking-monitoring-report-2017/

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2016

10 May 2017

FSB 2015 Report

FSB 2014 Report

https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/r_141030.pdf?page_moved=1

FSB 2013 Report

FSB 2012 Report

FSB 2011 Report

Shadow Banking: Monitoring Vulnerabilities and Strengthening Policy Tools

https://www.garp.org/#!/risk-intelligence/all/all/a1Z1W0000054xEzUAI

BANK-BASED AND MARKET-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISONS

Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Ross Levine*

June 1999

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/18e5/660bef2325f326bb8077bd0dd6f5225b1bf8.pdf?_ga=2.215410079.942675951.1605328042-1052966156.1604782392

Off the Radar: Exploring the Rise of Shadow Banking in the EU

Martin Hodula

https://www.cnb.cz/en/economic-research/research-publications/cnb-working-paper-series/Off-the-Radar-Exploring-the-Rise-of-Shadow-Banking-in-the-EU/

https://voxeu.org/article/radar-rise-shadow-banking-europe

Shadow Banking: Economics and Policy

Stijn Claessens, Zoltan Pozsar, Lev Ratnovski, and Manmohan Singh

IMF

2012

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2016/12/31/Shadow-Banking-Economics-and-Policy-40132

Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: Cross-Country Comparisons

A. Demirguc-Kunt

Published 1999

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Bank-Based-and-Market-Based-Financial-Systems%3A-Demirguc-Kunt/cd8cf558db2f8404271050ba40408a28ac4fcbc4

Market-based finance: a macroprudential view

Speech given by
Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor Financial Stability, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Member of the Financial Policy Committee and Member of the Prudential Regulation Committee

BOE/BIS

Asset Management Derivatives Forum, Dana Point, California Friday 9 February 2017

Shadow Banking and Market Based Finance

Tobias Adrian, International Monetary Fund 
Helsinki

September 14, 2017

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/09/13/sp091417-shadow-banking-and-market-based-finance

Transforming Shadow Banking into Resilient Market-based Finance

An Overview of Progress

12 November 2015

FSB

Mapping Market-Based Finance in Ireland

Simone Cima, Neill Killeen and Vasileios Madouros1,2 

Central Bank of Ireland
December 13, 2019

BANK AND NONBANK LENDING OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS

FDIC

Financial Stability Review

November 2019

ECB

Shadow Banking

Zoltan Pozsar, Tobias Adrian, Adam Ashcraft, and Hayley Boesky

FRBNY Economic Policy Review / December 2013

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/2013/0713adri.html

Shadow Banking and Market-Based Finance

Tobias Adrian and Bradley Jones

IMF

No 18/14

Why Shadow Banking Is Bigger Than Ever

DANIELA GABOR

https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/why-shadow-banking-is-bigger-than-ever

The Non-Bank Credit Cycle

Esti Kemp, Ren ́e van Stralen, Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, and Peter Wierts

2018-076

Fed Reserve

The role of financial markets for economic growth

Speech delivered by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, at the Economics Conference “The Single Financial Market: Two Years into EMU” organised by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna on 31 May 2001

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2001/html/sp010531.en.html

Bank deleveraging, the move from bank to market-based financing, and SME financing

Gert Wehinger

OECD

OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Volume 2012/1
© OECD 2012

Shadow Banking: A Review of the Literature

Tobias Adrian Adam B. Ashcraft

2012 FRBNY

The Global Pandemic and Run on Shadow Banks

FRBKC

2020

https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/publications/research/eb/articles/2020/global-pandemic-run-shadow-banks

Shadow Banking: The Rise, Risks, and Rewards of Non-Bank Financial Services

Roy J. Girasa

The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking

ALAN MOREIRA and ALEXI SAVOV∗

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • 2017

Is Shadow Banking Really Banking?

Bryan J. Noeth ,  Rajdeep Sengupta

Saturday, October 1, 2011

FRBSL

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2011/is-shadow-banking-really-banking

Three Essays on Capital Regulations and Shadow Banking

Diny Ghuzini
Western Michigan University, diny.ghuzini@wmich.edu

CLARIFYING THE SHADOW BANKING DEBATE: APPLICATION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Amias Gerety 2017

Institute of International Economic Law Georgetown University Law Center

Commercial Banking and Shadow Banking

The Accelerating Integration of Banks and Markets and its Implications for Regulation

ARNOUD W. A. BOOT AND ANJAN V. THAKOR

(prepared as revised version of Chapter 3 in The Oxford University Press Handbook, The Accelerating Integration of Banks and Markets and its Implications for Regulation, 3rd edition.)

The Shadow Banking System in the United States: Recent Developments and Economic Role

Tresor Economics

France

2013

https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/ccfd4180-fddb-4333-bd16-0b91f2daa18c/files/6ae6455a-92be-43a5-a94d-91b03b38a8d8

Shadow Banking: Policy Challenges for Central Banks

Thorvald Grung Moe*

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

May 2014

BANKS, SHADOW BANKING, AND FRAGILITY

Stephan Luck and Paul Schempp

2014 ECB

Restructuring the Banking System to Improve Safety and Soundness

Thomas M. Hoenig
Vice Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Charles S. Morris
Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Original version: May 2011 Revised: December 2012

Understanding the Risks Inherent in Shadow Banking: A Primer and Practical Lessons Learned

by David Luttrell Harvey Rosenblum and Jackson Thies

FRB Dallas

Shadow Banking Concerns: The Case of Money Market Funds

Saad Alnahedh† , Sanjai Bhagat

Towards a theory of shadow money

Daniela Gabor* and Jakob Vestergaard

The Economics of Shadow Banking 

Manmohan Singh

2013

Regulating the Shadow Banking System

GARY GORTON

ANDREW METRICK

Yale University

The Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from Capital Regulation

Rustom M. Irani, Raymakal Iyer, Ralf R. Meisenzahl, and Jos ́e-Luis Peydr ́o

2018-039

Fed Reserve

Shadow Banking: Background and Policy Issues

Edward V. Murphy

Specialist in Financial Economics

December 31, 2013

Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

The Clearing House

https://www.theclearinghouse.org/banking-perspectives/2015/2015-q4-banking-perspectives/articles/shining-a-light-on-shadow-banking

REGULATING SHADOW BANKING*

STEVEN L. SCHWARCZ

2011

Duke Law

Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System Adi Sunderam

Harvard Business School and NBER September 2014

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/27336543/sunderam_money-creation.pdf?sequence=1

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report Chapter 2

Shadow Banking

THE SHADOW BANKING CHARADE

By Melanie L. Fein*

February 15, 2013

Assessing shadow banking – non-bank financial intermediation in Europe

No 10/ July 2016

by
Laurent Grillet-Aubert Jean-Baptiste Haquin Clive Jackson
Neill Killeen
Christian Weistroffer

ESRB

Shedding Light on Shadow Banking

Timothy Lane

Bank of Canada

shadow banking and capital markets

RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Group of Thirty

Shadow Banking and Market Based Finance

Tobias Adrian, International Monetary Fund 
Helsinki

September 14, 2017

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/09/13/sp091417-shadow-banking-and-market-based-finance

Financial Stability Report – November 2020

Federal Reserve

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2020-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2019-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/financial-stability-report.htm

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

My last post on this topic was in May 2019.

Research continues on this important topic. What are the effects of Monetary policy on Financial Institution?

Please see my previous posts to find the issues. In this post I have compiled papers and articles published since my last post in 2019.

Rational Decision making by the firms
  • Lend More – When margins decline, the volumes must go up to maintain or increase profits. This increases risk taking.
  • Diversify – Look for other sources of earnings
  • Consolidate – Merge with other banks as a business strategy to grow loan volumes.

How do banks make money? What is source of their income? How much is Net interest income? How much is Non Interest Income?

As you can see from the graphs below, Net interest income of banks is going up. Although the net interest margins are down, Banks are earning their income mostly from net interest income.

Volumes of Outstanding loans must be going up to make up for decrease in margins.

Sources of interest income can be

  • Commercial loans
  • Real Estate loans
  • Auto Loans
  • Credit cards
  • Student Loans

Additionally consolidation among the banks can be partially explained by the decling number of banks. See graph below.

Diversification to find other sources of earnings.

Image Source: FRED
EFFECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (FEDFUNDS)

Image Source: FRED
NET INTEREST MARGIN FOR ALL U.S. BANKS (USNIM)

Image Source: Statista
AVERAGE NET INTEREST MARGIN OF BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 1995 TO 2019

Image Source: Liberty Street Economics 2017

Image Source: FRED
BANK’S NON-INTEREST INCOME TO TOTAL INCOME FOR UNITED STATES

Image Source: FRED
Net Interest Income for Commercial Banks in United States

Image Source: FRED
Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTBKCR)

Image Source: FRED
Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTLL)

Image Source: FRED
Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS)

Image Source: FRED
REAL ESTATE LOANS, ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (REALLN)

Image Source: FRED
Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks (CONSUMER)

Image Source: FRED
COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE U.S. (USNUM)

Key Terms

  • Net Interest Margin
  • Profitability
  • Interest Income
  • Non Interest Income
  • Monetary Policy
  • Fed Funds Rate
  • 10 Year T Bond’s Rate
  • Shadow Banking
  • Search for Yield
  • Risk Taking
  • Housing Loans
  • Auto Loan
  • Deposits
  • Credit Cards
  • Money Markets Mutual Funds
  • Money Markets
  • Capital Markets
  • International Capital Flows
  • Diversification
  • Mergers
  • To Big to Fail
  • Non Core Business

My Related Posts

Low Interest Rates and Bank’s Profitability – Update May 2019

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability : Update July 2017

Low Interest Rates and Banks Profitability: Update – December 2016

Impact of Low Interest Rates on Bank’s Profitability

Non Interest Income of Banks: Diversification and Consolidation

Evolution of Banks Complexity

Shadow Banking

Funding Strategies of Banks

Low Interest Rates and Risk taking channel of Monetary Policy

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Key Sources of Research

Bank profitability and risk‐taking under low interest rates

Jacob A. Bikker1,2 | Tobias M. Vervliet3

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321277826_Bank_profitability_and_risk-taking_under_low_interest_rates

How banks can ease the pain of negative interest rates

March 3, 2020 | Article

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/how-banks-can-ease-the-pain-of-negative-interest-rates#

Bank intermediation when interest rates are very low for long 

Michael Brei, Claudio Borio, Leonardo Gambacorta  

07 February 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/bank-intermediation-when-interest-rates-are-very-low-long

Implications of negative interest rates for the net interest margin and lending of euro area banks

by Melanie Klein

Monetary and Economic Department 

March 2020

Are Banks Exposed to Interest Rate Risk?

Pascal Paul and Simon W. Zhu

2020-16 | June 22, 2020 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Negative rates and the transmission of monetary policy

Prepared by Miguel Boucinha and Lorenzo Burlon[1]

Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 3/2020.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2020/html/ecb.ebart202003_02~4768be84e7.en.html#toc2

Is there a zero lower bound?
The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms

Revised June 2020


The impact of very low interest rates on bank profitability

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr-november-2019/the-impact-of-very-low-interest-rates-on-bank-profitability

Bank intermediation activity in a low interest rate environment

by Michael Brei, Claudio Borio and Leonardo Gambacorta

Monetary and Economic Department August 2019

Do Negative Interest Rates Explain Low Profitability of European Banks?1

Nicholas Coleman* and Viktors Stebunovs*

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/do-negative-interest-rates-explain-low-profitability-of-european-banks-20191129.htm

Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates1

Miguel Ampudia2 and Skander J. Van den Heuvel3 May 2019

Negative Interest Rates, Bank Profitability and Risk-taking

Whelsy Boungou

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334528681_Negative_Interest_Rates_Bank_Profitability_and_Risk-taking

Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment: A Follow-up and a Rejoinder

By Charles Goodhart and Ali Kabiri

Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Carlo Altavilla, Miguel Boucinha and José-Luis Peydró

Barcelona GSE Working Paper: 1101 | May 2019

https://www.barcelonagse.eu/research/working-papers/monetary-policy-and-bank-profitability-low-interest-rate-environment

Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

Mauricio Ulate Campos Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

September 2019

NEGATIVE NOMINAL INTEREST RATES AND THE BANK LENDING CHANNEL

Gauti B. Eggertsson Ragnar E. Juelsrud Lawrence H. Summers Ella Getz Wold

Working Paper 25416

Implications of negative interest rates for the net interest margin and lending of euro area banks

Melanie Klein

Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer

https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/11/30/negative-nominal-interest-rates-a-primer

Trends in the Noninterest Income of Banks

Joseph G. Haubrich and Tristan Young

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2019-economic-commentaries/ec-201914-trends-in-the-noninterest-income-of-banks.aspx

Negative interest rates in the euro area: does it hurt banks?

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/negative-interest-rates-in-the-euro-area-does-it-hurt-banks_d3227540-en

Interest rate pass-through in the low interest rate environment

Average net interest margin of banks in the United States from 1995 to 2019

https://www.statista.com/statistics/210869/net-interest-margin-for-all-us-banks/

Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/obfrinfo

How low interest rates can hurt competition, and the economy

They help big companies more than small ones, depressing investment and productivity

https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2019/article/how-low-interest-rates-can-hurt-competition-and-economy

Monetary Policy Report

June 12, 2020

Federal Reserve

The Long Decline of Global Interest Rates

Posted On :  Published By : BER staff

GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT:

Markets in the Time of COVID-19

Chapter 4

April 2020

IMF

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2020/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2020

Low Interest Rates and Bank Profits

Katherine Di Lucido, Anna Kovner, and Samantha Zeller

Liberty Street Economics

2017

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/06/low-interest-rates-and-bank-profits.html

Bank’s Non-Interest Income to Total Income for United States (DDEI03USA156NWDB)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDEI03USA156NWDB

Net Interest Income for Commercial Banks in United States

Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks (USNIM)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USNIM

Commercial Banks in the U.S. (USNUM)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USNUM

Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTLL)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTLL

Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTBKCR)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR

Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BUSLOANS

Consumer Credit

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/101

Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks (REALLN)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REALLN

Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks (CONSUMER)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CONSUMER

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments – Update October 2020

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments – Update October 2020

There has been several new research on the topic of Low Interest Rates and Business Investments since my last post.

Decision Making by Firms in Low Interest rates environment

  • Invest and Grow
  • Merge / Consolidate
  • Pay Dividends
  • Buyback Shares
  • Divestures
  • Acquisitions
  • Horizontal Mergers (Market Share)
  • Vertical Mergers (Costs)
  • Innovation M&A (New Tech, New Product)

Key Terms

  • Business Investments
  • Monetary Polcy
  • Zero Lower Bound
  • Interest Rates
  • Fed Funds Rate
  • Corporate Finance
  • Hurdle Rates
  • Capital Budgeting
  • Internal Rate of Return IRR
  • CAGR Compond Annual Growth Rate
  • Cost of Capital
  • Discounted Cash Flow
  • Net Present Value
  • Mergers vs Investments
  • Organic Growth
  • Inorganic Growth
  • State of the Industry
  • State of the Economy
  • Liquidity Financial
  • Bank Lending
  • Capital Markets
  • Economic Growth
  • Corporate Planning
  • Strategic Planning
  • Strategic Management

My Related Posts

Increasing Market Concentration in USA: Update April 2019

Rising Market Concentration and Declining Business Investments in the USA – Update June 2018

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments : Update August 2017

Business Investments and Low Interest Rates

Cash and Investments: Corporate Savings Glut in USA

Low Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Low Interest Rates and Risk taking channel of Monetary Policy

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Low Interest Rates and Bank’s Profitability – Update May 2019

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability : Update July 2017

Low Interest Rates and Banks Profitability: Update – December 2016

Impact of Low Interest Rates on Bank’s Profitability

The Decline in Long Term Real Interest Rates

Cash and Investments: Corporate Savings Glut in USA

Why do Firms buyback their Shares? Causes and Consequences.

Short term Thinking in Investment Decisions of Businesses and Financial Markets

Key Sources of Reserach

Lengthy era of rock-bottom interest rates leaving its mark on U.S. economy

Weak demand in U.S. and other rich nations explains historic shift

Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/03/low-interest-rates/

Do Interest Rates Affect Business Investment? Evidence from Australian Company-level Data

Jonathan Hambur and Gianni La Cava

Low Interest Rates Have Benefits … and Costs

Kevin L. Kliesen

October 1, 2010

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2010/low-interest-rates-have-benefits–and-costs

Low for Long?
Causes and Consequences of Persistently Low Interest Rates

Geneva Reports on the World Economy 17 Charles Bean

London School of Economics and CEPR

Christian Broda

Duquesne Capital Management

Takatoshi Ito

SIPA Columbia University and CEPR

Randall Kroszner

Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

2015

Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth∗

Ernest Liu

Princeton University

Atif Mian
Princeton University and NBER

Amir Sufi
University of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER

August 18, 2020

The Economic Effects of Low Interest Rates and Unconventional Monetary Policy

17 September 2020

Rochelle Guttmann, Dana Lawson and Peter Rickards

RBA

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/sep/the-economic-effects-of-low-interest-rates-and-unconventional-monetary-policy.html

Firms’ Investment Decisions and Interest Rates

Kevin Lane and Tom Rosewall

RBA

Has Business Fixed Investment Really Been Unusually Low?

By François Gourio

Chicago Fed Letter, No. 418, 2019

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/418

Fiscal Policy with High Debt and Low Interest Rates

William Gale

July 1, 2019

The impact of negative interest rates on banks and firms 

Carlo Altavilla, Lorenzo Burlon, Mariassunta Giannetti, Sarah Holton  

08 November 2019

https://voxeu.org/article/impact-negative-interest-rates-banks-and-firms

Global Trends in Interest Rates

Marco Del Negro Domenico Giannone Marc P. Giannoni Andrea Tambalotti

Staff Report No. 866 September 2018

Financial stability implications of a prolonged period of low interest rates

Report submitted by a Working Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was co-chaired by Ulrich Bindseil (European Central Bank) and Steven B Kamin (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

July 2018

BIS

Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311-2018.

Paul Schmelzing

https://economics.rutgers.edu/downloads-hidden-menu/news-and-events/workshops/money-history-and-finance/1823-paulschmelzing/file

Low Interest Rates and Risk Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions

Review of Financial Studies

49 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2016 Last revised: 29 Aug 2018

Chen Lian

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Yueran Ma

University of Chicago – Booth School of Business

Carmen Wang

Harvard University – Department of Economics; HBS Negotiations, Organizations and Markets Unit

Date Written: August 22, 2018

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2809191

MONETARY POLICY, CORPORATE FINANCE AND INVESTMENT

James Cloyne Clodomiro Ferreira Maren Froemel Paolo Surico

Determinants of the real interest rate

Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the National Treasury Management Agency

Dublin, 28 November 2019

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2019/html/ecb.sp191128_1~de8e7283e6.en.html

Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles∗

Nicolas Crouzet and Janice Eberly

Prepared for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

August 23 – 25, 2018 This version: May 14, 2019

Monetary policy in advanced economies

Low policy rates are here to stay

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/monetary-policy-low-interest-rates-advanced-economies.html

Have low interest rates led to excessive risk taking?

https://www.aeaweb.org/forum/311/have-low-interest-rates-led-to-excessive-risk-taking

The Policy Perils of Low Interest Rates

The consequences of prolonged low interest rates in Europe

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/the-consequences-of-prolonged-low-interest-rates-in-europe,economy,2465.html

Drama Theory: Acting Strategically

Drama Theory: Acting Strategically

 

 

Key Terms

  • Pradoxes of Rationality
  • Metagame Analysis
  • Confrontation Analysis
  • Game Theory
  • Drama Theory
  • Conflict
  • Resolution
  • Dilemmas
  • Rationality
  • Rational choice
  • Preference change
  • Emotions
  • Humanities
  • Art and Culture
  • Bharata Muni Natya Shastra
  • Aristotle’s Poetics
  • Integral Theory
  • Ken Wilber
  • Problem Structuring Methods

From Acting Strategically Using Drama Theory

In today’s confrontational and connected world, communication is the key strategic act. This book uses drama theory—a radical extension of game theory—to show how best to communicate so as to manage the emotionally charged confrontations occurring in any worthwhile relationship. Alongside a toolset that provides a systematic framework for analysing conflicts, drama theory explains why people need to listen to, and rely on, their feelings to help shake themselves out of fixed, unproductive positions and to find new ways of solving tough problems.

This guide provides a sufficient grounding in the approach to enable you to apply it immediately for your own benefit and for the benefit of those with whom you work. A host of inspirational examples are included based upon actual situations in social and personal relations, business and organisational relations, defence and political management. These will give you an entirely fresh way of seeing how power is exercised in everyday interpersonal exchanges and a greater critical awareness of such factors as subtext and plotholes in public narratives. Using this approach you will be able to overcome the dilemmas of credibility and disbelief to build compelling messages that underpin your strategic intent. Moving beyond the vague platitudes of concepts like emotional intelligence, drama theory will also help you to avoid the pathologies that bedevil the process of managing conflicts and find ways of achieving authentic resolutions.

Please see my related post

Drama Theory: Choices, Conflicts and Dilemmas

Key Sources of Research

Problem structuring methods in action

John Mingers a,*, Jonathan Rosenhead

 

Click to access Problem-Structuring-Methods-in-Action.pdf

 

Confrontation Analysis: a Command and Control System for Conflicts Other Than War*

Peter Murray-Jones

Defence Evaluation and Research Agency, Portsdown West, Hants, PO17 6AD UK pmurrayjones@dera.gov.uk

Nigel Howard

ISCO Ltd, 10 Bloomfield Road, Birmingham B13 9BY UK

 

Click to access 042howar.pdf

 

 

Co-ordinated Positions in a Drama-theoretic Confrontation: Mathematical Foundations for a PO Decision Support System

Peter Murray-Jones
(DERA)
Nigel Howard
(dramatec)
12 Chesham Road, Brighton BN2 1NB, UK Tel.: +44 1273 67 45 86
e-mail: nhoward@dramatec.com)

 

Click to access 076_tr6.pdf

Game Theory and the Humanities: Bridging Two Worlds

By Steven J. Brams

 

 

 

Strategic and Dilemma Analysis of a Water Export Conflict

ftp://ftp.theochem.ru.nl/pub/toinesmits/PDF_files_supporting_literature_24%2625-11-2009/2005ObeidiStrategic%20and%20dilemma%20analyses%20of.pdf

 

 

Game Theory and Literature

Steven Brams

Click to access brams1994.pdf

 

 

 

Decision Making Using Game Theory: An Introduction for Managers

An introduction for managers

Anthony Kelly

Click to access Decision-Making-Using-Game-Theory-An-Introduction-for-Managers.pdf

 

 

Foundation of Subjective Confrontation Analysis

Pri Hermawan1, Kyoichi Kijima2*

 

http://journals.isss.org/index.php/proceedings50th/article/download/334/107

 

 

 

 

Drama, Emotion, and Cultural Convergence

D. Lawrence Kincaid

 

Click to access Kincaid%20drama.pdf

 

 

 

DRAMA THEORY AND METAGAME ANALYSIS

Nigel Howard

Click to access 666923c54a0189c888080db4e5b8c4529783.pdf

Drama theory: dispelling the myths

J Bryant

Manifesto for a Theory of Drama and Irrational Choice

Nigel Howard, Peter Bennet, Jim Bryant & Morris Bradley

Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 1: Dramatic resolution vs. Rational solution

  • Nigel Howard

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01384354

Drama theory and its relation to game theory. Part 2: Formal model of the resolution process

  • Nigel Howard

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF01384355

The Sanskrit Drama in Its Origin, Development, Theory & Practice

By Arthur Berriedale Keith

Click to access 2015.102820.The-Sanskrit-Drama-In-Its-Origin-Development-Theory-And-Practice.pdf

Rationality, emotion and preference change Drama-theoretic models of choice