Category: Supply Chain Management

Production Chain Length and Boundary Crossings in Global Value Chains

Production Chain Length and Boundary Crossings in Global Value Chains

 

From Structure and length of value chains

In a value chain, value is added in sequential production stages and is carried forward from one producer to the next in the form of intermediate inputs. Value chains driven by the fragmentation of production are not an entirely new economic phenomenon, but the increasing reliance on imported intermediate inputs makes value chains global.

According to a 2013 report by the OECD, WTO and UNCTAD for the G-20 Leaders Summit, “Value chains have become a dominant feature of the world economy” (OECD et al., 2013).

Obviously, this dominant feature of the world economy needs measuring and analyzing. Policy-relevant questions include, but are not limited to:

  • what is the contribution of global value chains to economy GDP and employment? how long and complex are value chains?
  • what is the involvement and position of individual industries in global value chains? do multiple border crossings in global value chains really matter?

These and related questions generated a considerable amount of investigations proposing new measures of exports and production to account for global value chains. Some of those were designed to re-calculate trade  flows in value added terms, whereas other provided an approximation of the average length of production process.

A relatively new stream of research focuses on a deep decomposition of value added or final demand ( rather than exports or imports ) into components with varied paths along global value chains and measurements of the length of the related production processes. Consider, for example, a petrochemical plant that generates some value added equal to its output less all intermediate inputs used. We would be interested to know which part of this value added, embodied in the petrochemicals, is used entirely within the domestic economy and which part is exported.

We would also inquire how much of the latter satisfies final demand in partner countries and how much is further used in production and, perhaps, in exports to third countries and so on. We would be interested, in particular, in counting the number of production stages the value added in these petrochemicals passes along the chain before reaching its final user.

 

From Structure and length of value chains

APL

 

 

From Structure and length of value chains

A natural question is whether this method can be applied to the real economy with myriads of products, industries and dozens of partner countries? It can surely be applied if the data on inter-industry transactions are organized in the form of input-output accounts, and the computations are performed in block matrix environment. In fact, the measurement of the number of production stages or the length of production chains has attracted the interest of many input-output economists. The idea of simultaneously counting and weighting the number of inter-industry transactions was formalized by Dietzenbacher et al. (2005). Their “average propagation length” (APL) is the average number of steps it takes an exogenous change in one industry to affect the value of production in another industry. It is the APL concept on which we build the count of the number of production stages from the petrochemical plant to its consumers in our simplified example above. The only difference is that Dietzenbacher et al. (2005), and many authors in the follow-up studies, neglect the completion stage. First applications of the APL concept to measure the length of cross-border production chains appear in Dietzenbacher and Romero (2007) and Inomata (2008), though Oosterhaven and Bouwmeester (2013) warn that the APL should only be used to compare pure interindustry linkages and not to compare different economies or different industries.

Fally (2011, 2012) proposes the recursive definitions of two indices that quantify the “average number of embodied production stages” and the “distance to final demand”.  Miller and Temurshoev (2015), by analogy with Antras et al. (2012), use the logic of the APL and derive the measures of “output upstreamness” and “input downstreamness” that indicate industry relative position with respect to the nal users of outputs and initial producers of inputs. They show that their measures are mathematically equivalent to those of Fally and the well known indicators of, respectively, total forward linkages and total backward linkages. Fally (2012) indicates that the average number of embodied production stages may be split to account for the stages taking place within the domestic economy and abroad. This approach was implemented in OECD (2012), De Backer and Miroudot (2013) and elaborated in Miroudot and Nordstrom (2015).

Ye et al. (2015) generalize previous length and distance indices and propose a consistent accounting system to measure the distance in production networks between producers and consumers at the country, industry and product levels from different economic perspectives. Their “value added propagation length” may be shown to be equal to Fally’s embodied production stages and Miller & Temurshoev’s input downstreamness when aggregated across producing industries.

Finally, Wang et al. (2016) develop a technique of additive decomposition of the average production length. Therefore, they are able to break the value chain into various components and measure the length of production along each component. Their production length index system includes indicators of the average number of domestic, cross-border and foreign production stages. They also propose new participation and production line position indices to clearly identify where a country or industry is in global value chains. Importantly, Wang et al. (2016) clearly distinguish between average production length and average propagation length, and between shallow and deep global value chains.

This paper builds on the technique and ideas of Wang et al. (2016) and the derivation of the weighted average number of border crossings by Muradov (2016). It re-invents a holistic system of analytical indicators of structure and length of value chains. As in Wang et al. (2016), global value chains are treated here within a wider economy context and are juxtaposed with domestic value chains. This enables developing new indices of orientation towards global value chains. The novel deliverables of this paper are believed to include the following. First, all measurements are developed with respect to output rather than value added or final product  flows. This is superior for interpretation and visualization purposes because a directly observable economic variable ( output ) is decomposed in both directions, forwards to the destination and backwards to the origin of value chain. It is also shown that at a disaggregate country-industry level, the measurement of production length is equivalent with respect to value added and output. Second, the decomposition of output builds on a factorization of the Leontief and Ghosh inverse matrices that allows for an explicit count of production stages within each detailed component. Third, the system builds on a refined classication of production stages, including final and primary production stages that are often neglected in similar studies. Fourth, the paper re-designs the average production line position index and proposes new indices of orientation towards global value chains that, hopefully, avoid overemphasizing the length of some unimportant cross-border value chains. Fifth, a new chart is proposed for the visualization of both structure and length of value chains. The chart provides an intuitive graphical interpretation of the GVC participation, orientation and position indices.

It is also worth noting that both Wang et al. (2016) and this paper propose similar methods to estimate the intensity of GVC-related production in partner countries and across borders. This is not possible with previous decomposition systems without explicitly counting the average number of production stages and border crossings.

 

 Key Terms:

  • Average Propagation Length
  • National Boundaries
  • Networks
  • Value Chains
  • Supply Chains
  • Upstreamness
  • Downstreamness
  • Structure of Chains
  • Smile Curves
  • Vertical Specialization
  • Fragmentation of Production
  • Shock Amplifiers
  • Shock Absorbers
  • Production Sharing
  • World Input Output Chains
  • WIOD
  • Counting Boundary Crossings
  • Production Staging
  • Slicing Up Value Chains
  • Mapping Value Chains
  • Geography of Value Chains
  • Spatial Economy

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

Characterizing Global Value Chains

Zhi Wang

Shang-Jin Wei

Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu

GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2016
Background Paper Conference

Beijing, 17-18 March 2016

Click to access Characterizing_Global_Value_Chains.pdf

 

 

The Great Trade Collapse: Shock Amplifiers and Absorbers in Global Value Chains

Zhengqi Pan

2016

Click to access Zhengqi%20Pan_GPN2016_008.pdf

 

 

CHARACTERIZING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS:PRODUCTION LENGTH AND UPSTREAMNESS

Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei
Xinding Yu
Kunfu Zhu
March 2017

Click to access w23261.pdf

 

 

 

Characterizing Global Value Chains

Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei,
Xinding Yu and Kunfu Zhu

September 2016

Click to access Wang,%20Zhi.pdf

Click to access 8178.pdf

 

 

MEASURING AND ANALYZING THE IMPACT OF GVCs ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

GLOBAL VALUE CHAIN DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2017

International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank
2017

Click to access tcgp-17-01-china-gvcs-complete-for-web-0707.pdf

 

 

 

Global Value Chains

Click to access Lecture%20Global%20Value%20Chains.pdf

 

 

MAPPING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

4-5 December 2012
The OECD Conference Centre, Paris

Click to access MappingGlobalValueChains_web_usb.pdf

 

 

 

Structure and length of value chains

Kirill Muradov

Click to access IO-Workshop-2017_Muradov_abstract.pdf

Click to access IO-Workshop-2017_Muradov_ppt.pdf

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3054155

 

Production Staging: Measurement and Facts

Thibault Fally

August 2012

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.717.7092&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

TRACING VALUE-ADDED AND DOUBLE COUNTING IN GROSS EXPORTS

Robert Koopman
Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei

November 2012

Click to access w18579.pdf

 

 

 

GIVE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE: TRACING VALUE ADDED IN GLOBAL PRODUCTION CHAINS

Robert Koopman
William Powers
Zhi Wang
Shang-Jin Wei

September 2010

Click to access NBER%20working%20paper_1.pdf

 

 

 

Measuring the Upstreamness of Production and Trade Flows

By Pol Antràs, Davin Chor, Thibault Fally, and Russell Hillberry

2012

Click to access acfh_published.pdf

Click to access w17819.pdf

 

 

 

Using Average Propagation Lengths to Identify Production Chains in the Andalusian Economy

 

https://idus.us.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11441/17372/file_1.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

 

 

Production Chains in an Interregional Framework: Identification by Means of Average Propagation Lengths

 2007
Erik Dietzenbacher, Isidoro Romero

 

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0160017607305366

 

 

 

Vertical Integration and Input Flows

Enghin Atalay

Ali Hortaçsu

Chad Syverson

2013

Click to access verticalownership.pdf

 

 

 

The Rise of Vertical Specialization Trade

Benjamin Bridgman

January 2010

Click to access the_rise_of_vertical_specialization_trade_bridgman_benjamin.pdf

 

 

 

THE NATURE AND GROWTH OF VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION IN WORLD TRADE

David Hummels
Jun Ishii
Kei-Mu Yi*

March 1999

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.475.3874&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added

Robert C. Johnson

Guillermo Noguera

First Draft: July 2008
This Draft: June 2009

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.211.9707&rep=rep1&type=pdf

First Draft: July 2008
This Draft: May 2011

Click to access PAPER_4_Johnson_Noguera.pdf

 

 

 

FRAGMENTATION AND TRADE IN VALUE ADDED OVER FOUR DECADES

Robert C. Johnson
Guillermo Noguera

June 2012

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.679.6227&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

Can Vertical Specialization Explain The Growth of World Trade

Kei-Mu Yi

1999

Click to access sr96.pdf

 

 

CAN MULTI-STAGE PRODUCTION EXPLAIN THE HOME BIAS IN TRADE?

Kei-Mu Yi

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia
June 2008
This revision: November 2008

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/research-and-data/publications/working-papers/2008/wp08-12r.pdf?la=en

 

 

 

Global Value Chains: New Evidence for North Africa

D. Del Prete, G. Giovannetti, E. Marvasi

2016

Click to access wp07_2016.pdf

 

 

 

Slicing Up Global Value Chains

Marcel Timmera Abdul Erumbana Bart Losa
Robert Stehrerb Gaaitzen de Vriesa

Presentation at International Conference on Global Value Chains and
Structural Adjustments,

Tsinghua University, June 25, 2013

Click to access session4_timmer.pdf

 

 

 

On the Geography of Global Value Chains

Pol Antràs

Alonso de Gortari

May 24, 2017

Click to access gvc_ag_latest_draft.pdf

 

 

Counting Borders in Global Value Chains

Posted: 12 Jul 2016

Last revised: 29 Aug 2016

Kirill Muradov

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2808130

 

 

Determinants of country positioning in global value chains

Kirill Muradov

May 2017

Click to access 2932_20170627121_Muradov2017_countrypositioninGVC_1.1.pdf

 

 

THE CONSTRUCTION OF WORLD INPUT–OUTPUT TABLES IN THE WIOD PROJECT

ERIK DIETZENBACHERa*, BART LOSa, ROBERT STEHRERb, MARCEL TIMMERa and GAAITZEN DE VRIES

2013

 

Click to access WIOD%20construction.pdf

 

 

 

 

On the fragmentation of production in the us

Thibault Fally

July 2011

Click to access Fally.pdf

http://voxeu.org/article/has-production-become-more-fragmented-international-vs-domestic-perspectives

A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process: An International Input-Output Approach

Inomata, Satoshi

http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Download/Dp/175.html

Output Upstreamness and Input Downstreamness of Industries/Countries in World Production

Ronald E. Miller

Umed Temurshoev

 

Date Written: July 9, 2015

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2700845

Input-Output Calculus of International Trade

Kirill Muradov

 

Date Written: June 1, 2015

Posted: 9 Sep 2015 Last revised: 5 Oct 2015

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2643098

 

 

 

 Made in the World?

S. Miroudot

Hakan Nordstrom

Date Written: September 2015

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2658562

 

 

 

The Average Propagation Length Conflicting Macro, Intra-industry, and Interindustry Conclusions

October 2013
Jan Oosterhaven

Maaike C. Bouwmeester

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258142955_The_Average_Propagation_Length_Conflicting_Macro_Intra-industry_and_Interindustry_Conclusions

 

 

 

Accounting Relations in Bilateral Value Added Trade

Robert Stehrer

May 2013

Click to access accounting-relations-in-bilateral-value-added-trade-dlp-3021.pdf

Whither Panama? Constructing a Consistent and Balanced World SUT System including International Trade and Transport Margins

Robert Stehrer

Click to access whither-panama-constructing-a-consistent-and-balanced-world-sut-system-including-international-trade-and-transport-margins-dlp-2905.pdf

https://wiiw.ac.at/p-2905.html

Quantifying International Production Sharing at the Bilateral and Sector Levels

Zhi Wang, Shang-Jin Wei, Kunfu Zhu

NBER Working Paper No. 19677
Issued in November 2013, Revised in March 2014

http://www.nber.org/papers/w19677

Measuring Smile Curves in Global Value Chains

Ming YE, Bo MENG , and Shang-jin WEI

August 2015

http://www.ide.go.jp/English/Publish/Download/Dp/530.html

 

 

 

 FOLLOW THE VALUE ADDED: BILATERAL GROSS EXPORT ACCOUNTING

by Alessandro Borin and Michele Mancini

2015

 

Click to access en_tema_1026.pdf

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

Intra Industry Trade and International Production and Distribution Networks

 

Inter Industry Trade is known as One way Trade.

Intra Industry Trade is known as Two way Trade.

 

Intra Industry Trade (IIT)

  • Can be Intra Firm or Inter Firm (Arms’ Length)
  • Can be Vertical or Horizontal (VIIT and HIIT)

Intra Industry Trade is measured using G-L Index among other indices.

Import and Export of Parts and Components (Intermediate Goods) causes measurement issues of IIT.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Intra-industry trade is defined as the simultaneous export and import of products, which belong to the same statistical product category. According to Kol and Rayment (1989), three types of bilateral trade flows may occur between countries: inter-industry trade, horizontal IIT and vertical IIT. Historically, the international trade between countries has been inter-industry form, which is described as the exchange of products belonging to different industries. Traditional trade models, such as Heckscher-Ohlin model or Ricardian model, have tried to explain this type of trade based on comparative advantage in relative technology and factor endowments. However, a significant portion of the world trade over the last three decades took the form of the intra-industry trade rather than inter-industry trade. As a result, the traditional trade models has been considered to be inadequate in explaining this new trade pattern because in these models there is no reason for developed countries to trade in similar but slightly differentiated goods.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Horizontal IIT has been defined as the exchange of similar goods that are similar in terms of quality but have different characteristics or attributes. The models developed by Dixit and Stiglitz (1977), Lancaster (1980), Krugman (1980, 1981), Helpman (1981), and Helpman and Krugman (1985) explain horizontal IIT by emphasizing the importance of economies of scale, product differentiation, and demand for variety within the setting of monopolistic competition type markets. In these models, IIT in horizontally differentiated goods should be greater, the greater the difference in income differences and relative factor endowments between the trading partners.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

In contrast, vertical IIT represents trade in similar products of different qualities but they are no longer the same in terms unit production costs and factor intensities.5 Falvey (1981) and Falvey and Kierzkowski (1987) have shown that the IIT in vertically differentiated goods occurs because of factor endowment differences across countries. In particular, Falvey and Kierzkowski (1987) suggest that the amount of capital relative to labor used in the production of vertically differentiated good indicates the quality of good. As a consequence, in an open economy, higher- quality products are produced in capital abundant countries whereas lower-quality products are produced in labor abundant countries. This will give rise to intra-industry trade in vertically differentiated goods: the capital abundant country exports higher-quality varieties and labor abundant country exports lower-quality products. The models of vertical IIT predict that the share of vertical IIT will increase as countries’ income and factor endowments diverge.

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Various ways of calculating intra-industry trade have been proposed in the empirical literature, including the Balassa Index, the Grubel-Lloyd (G-L) index, the Aquino index. The most widely used method for computing the IIT is developed by Grubel and Lloyd (1971). However, beside aggregation bias, the traditional G-L index has one major problem often cited in the empirical literature. The unadjusted G-L index is negatively correlated with a large overall trade imbalance. With national trade balances, the level of IIT in a country will be clearly underestimated. To avoid this problem, Grubel and Lloyd (1975) proposed another method to adjust the index by using the relative size of exports and imports of a particular good within an industry as weights.

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

iit

 

From Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

IIT2IIT3IIT4

 

From:  World Trade Flows Characterization: Unit Values, Trade Types and Price Ranges

 

IIT5

 

 

Key Terms:

  • Intra Industry Trade
  • Inter Industry Trade
  • Horizontal IIT
  • Vertical IIT
  • Ricardo’s Theory of Comparative Advantage
  • Factor Inputs
  • Factor Endowments
  • Factor Prices
  • Heckscher-Ohlin Model of Trade
  • Stolper-Samuelson Theorem
  • Grubel – Lloyd Index
  • Fontagné and Freudenberg index (FF)
  • New Economic Geography (NEG)
  • Spatial Economy
  • UN COMTRADE
  • SITC Codes
  • Balassa Index
  • Acquino Index
  • Bilateral Trade Flows

 

Please see my related posts:

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

Relational Turn in Economic Geography

Understanding Global Value Chains – G20/OECD/WB Initiative

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia:  Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications

Fukunari Kimura

2006

Click to access e2007-11b.pdf

 

 

 

The Formation of International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia

 

Mitsuyo Ando and Fukunari Kimura

 

Click to access c0194.pdf

 

 

“The mechanics of production networks in Southeast Asia: the fragmentation theory approach”

Fukunari Kimura

July 2007

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.600.7481&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

“Fragmentation in East Asia: Further Evidence”

May 2006

Mitsuyo Ando

Fukunari Kimura

Click to access Articolo%204.pdf

 

 

 

Modern International Production and Distribution Networks: the Role of Global Value Chains

Fukunari Kimura

2016

Click to access presentation_fukunari_kimura.pdf

 

 

 

Two-dimensional Fragmentation in East Asia: Conceptual Framework and Empirics

Fukunari Kimura and Mitsuyo Ando

Click to access 046.pdf

 

 

 

Deepening and Widening of Production Networks in ASEAN

Ayako Obashi

Fukunari Kimura

2016

Click to access ERIA-DP-2016-09.pdf

 

Global production sharing and trade patterns in East Asia

Prema-chandra Athukorala

June 2013

Click to access TU_VIROT,%20Ali_Reading2_Global%20Production%20Sharing%20and%20Trade%20Patterns%20in%20East%20Asia.pdf

 

 

 

PRODUCTION SHARING IN EAST ASIA: CHINA’S POSITION, TRADE PATTERN AND TECHNOLOGY UPGRADING

Laike Yang

Click to access gdsmdp20152yang_en.pdf

 

 

 

 

International Production Networks:  Contributions of Economics to Policy Making

Fukunari Kimura

2016

https://www.jstage.jst.go.jp/article/internationaleconomy/19/0/19_ie2016.03.fk/_pdf

 

 

 

 

Production networks in East Asia: What we know so far

Fukunari Kimura and Ayako Obashi

No. 320
November 2011

Click to access 67543923X.pdf

 

Structure and Determinants of Intra-Industry Trade in the U.S. Auto-Industry

Kemal Turkcan and Aysegul Ates

2010

 

Click to access JIGES%20DECEMBER%202009%20TURKCAN%203-10-2010%20Turkcan_Ates_JIGES.pdf

 

 

 

Vertical Intra-Industry Trade: An Empirical Examination of the U.S. Auto-Parts Industry

Kemal TÜRKCAN and Ayşegül ATEŞ

(This version October 2008)

 

Click to access Turkcan.pdf

 

 

 

Intra-industry trade, fragmentation and export margins: An empirical examination of sub-regional international trade

Yushi Yoshida

 

https://www.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/getFile.do?method=getFile&fileId=501284

 

 

A Practical Guide to Trade Policy Analysis

WTO

Click to access wto_unctad12_e.pdf

 

 

 

Intra-Industry Trade between Japan and European Countries: a Closer Look at the Quality Gap in VIIT

Yushi Yoshida, Nuno Carlos Leitão and Horácio Faustino

Click to access wp532008.pdf

 

 

Evolving pattern of intra-industry trade specialization of the new Member States (NMS) of the EU: the case of automotive industry

Elżbieta Kawecka-Wyrzykowska

2008

 

Click to access publication14289_en.pdf

 

 

VERTICAL AND HORIZONTAL INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE BETWEEN THE U.S. AND NAFTA PARTNERS

2009

 

Click to access art02.pdf

 

 

 

Globalizing Production Structure and Intra-Industry Trade: The Case of Turkey

Emine Kılavuz

Hatice Erkekoğlu

Betül Altay Topcu

2013

https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/viewFile/563/pdf

 

 

 

On the Measurement of Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade: A Geometric Exposition

A.K.M. Azhar Robert J.R. Elliott

http://www.ibrarian.net/navon/paper/On_the_Measurement_of_Vertical_and_Horizontal_Int.pdf?paperid=1018522

 

 

 

 Determinants of United States’ Vertical and Horizontal Intra-Industry Trade

2013

 

https://espace.curtin.edu.au/bitstream/handle/20.500.11937/41590/197560_110710_GEJ_2013.pdf?sequence=2

 

 

 

World Trade Flows Characterization: Unit Values, Trade Types and Price Ranges

Charlotte Emlinger & Sophie Piton

2014

Click to access wp2014-26.pdf

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

Understanding Trade in Intermediate Goods

 

One of the key source of International Trade statistics is a document published by the UNCTAD since 2013:

Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade

Please see references below to access reports for 2015 and 2016.

 

In 2014, out of USD 18.5 trillion in global trade, about USD 8 trillion was in intermediate goods.

 

From TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS AND SERVICES

Introduction: the international dimension of the exchange of intermediate inputs

1. Trade in intermediate inputs has been steadily growing over the last decade. However, despite the internationalisation of production and the increasing importance of outsourcing and foreign investment, some studies have found little rise in intermediate goods trade as a share of total trade1. More than half of goods trade is however made up of intermediate inputs and trade in services is even more of an intermediate type with about three quarters of trade flows being comprised of intermediate services. Trade in intermediate goods and services thus deserves special attention from trade policymakers and so far few studies have investigated how it differs from trade in consumption goods or services.

2. An intermediate good can be defined as an input to the production process that has itself been produced and, unlike capital, is used up in production3. The difference between intermediate and capital goods lies in the latter entering as a fixed asset in the production process. Like any primary factor (such as labour, land, or natural resources) capital is used but not used up in the production process4. On the contrary, an intermediate good is used, often transformed, and incorporated in the final output. As an input, an intermediate good has itself been produced and is hence defined in contrast to a primary input. As an output, an intermediate good is used to produce other goods (or services) contrary to a final good which is consumed and can be referred to as a “consumption good”.

3. Intermediate inputs are not restricted to material goods; they can also consist of services. Thelatter can be potentially used as an input to any sector of the economy; that is for the production of the same, or other services, as well as manufacturing goods. Symmetrically, manufacturing goods can be potentially used to produce the same, or other manufacturing goods, as well as services.

4. An important question we can ask is how to identify inputs among all goods and services produced in an economy. Many types of goods can be easily distinguished as inputs, when their use excludes them from final consumption. Notable examples include chemical substances, construction materials, or business services. The exact same type of good used as an input to some production process can however be destined to consumption. For instance, oranges can be sold to households as a final good, as well as to a factory as an input for food preparation. Telecommunication services can be sold to individuals or to business services firms as an intermediate input for their output. The United Nations distinguish commodities in each basic heading on the basis of the main end-use (United Nations, 2007). It is however recognized that many commodities that are traded internationally may be put to a variety of uses. Other methodologies involve the use of input-output (I-O) tables to distinguish between intermediate and consumption goods.

5. The importance of intermediate goods and services in the economy and trade is associated with a number of developments in the last decades. Growth and increased sophistication of production has given birth to strategies involving fragmentation and reorganisation of firm’s activities, both in terms of ownership boundaries, as in terms of the location for production. In what follows, the international dimension of the exchange of intermediate goods and services is explored by clarifying terms and concepts as well as the links between trade in intermediate inputs and FDI.

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter8

 

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter2

 From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter3

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter4

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter5

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter6

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

inter7

From Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

Trade networks relating to global value chains have evolved during the last 10 years. In 2004, the East Asian production network was still in its infancy. Most trade flows of parts and components concerned the USA and the European Union, with a number of other countries loosely connected with these two main hubs. As of 2014 trade of parts and components was much more developed. The current state is characterized not only by the prominent role of China, but also by a much more tightly integrated network with a much larger number of countries many of which have multiple connections to different hubs.

From Mapping Global Value Chains: Intermediate Goods Trade and Structural Change in the World Economy

inter10inter11inter12

Key sources of Research:

 

TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS AND SERVICES

OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No. 93
by Sébastien Miroudot, Rainer Lanz and Alexandros Ragoussis

2009

Click to access 44056524.pdf

 

 

An Essay on Intra-Industry Trade in Intermediate Goods

Rosanna Pittiglio

2014

Click to access ME_2014051916452646.pdf

 

 

The Rise of International Supply Chains: Implications for Global Trade

Click to access GETR_Chapter1.2.pdf

 

 

 

Growing Trade in Intermediate Goods: Outsourcing, Global Sourcing or Increasing
Importance of MNE Networks?

by
Jörn Kleinert
October 2000

Click to access kap1006.pdf

 

 

 

Imported Inputs and the Gains from Trade

Ananth Ramanarayanan
University of Western Ontario
September, 2014

https://www.economics.utoronto.ca/index.php/index/research/downloadSeminarPaper/49816

 

 

 

Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2015

Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Click to access ditctab2015d1_en.pdf

 

 

 

Key Statistics and Trends in International Trade 2016

Division on International Trade in Goods and Services, and Commodities
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

Click to access ditctab2016d3_en.pdf

 

 

Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy

Robert C. Feenstra
Revised, April 1998

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.39.7178&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES, AND IMPLICATIONS FOR POLICY

OECD, WTO and World Bank Group
Report prepared for submission to the G20 Trade Ministers Meeting Sydney, Australia, 19 July 2014

Click to access gvc_report_g20_july_2014.pdf

 

 

Trade in Value Added: Concepts, Estimation and Analysis

Marko Javorsek* and Ignacio Camacho

20015

Click to access AWP150Trade%20in%20Value%20Added.pdf

 

 

The Similarities and Differences among Three Major Inter-Country Input-Output Databases and their Implications for Trade in Value-Added Estimates

Lin Jones and Zhi Wang, United States International Trade Commission Li Xin, Beijing Normal University and Peking University Christophe Degain, World Trade Organization

December, 2014

Click to access ec201412b.pdf

 

 

Advanced Topics in Trade
Lecture 9 – Multinational Firms and Foreign Direct Investment

Heiwai Tang – SAIS
April 8, 2015

Click to access lecture_8_new.pdf

 

 

Efforts to Measure Trade in Value-Added and Map Global Value Chains: A Guide

Andrew Reamer

May 29, 2014

Click to access Reamer_ISA_Trade_in_Value_Added_05-29-2014.pdf

 

 

 

Global Value Chains for Value Added and Intermediate Goods in Asia

N Shrestha

20015

Click to access CESSA%20WP%202015-07.pdf

 

 

 

Global Value Chains: The New Reality of International Trade

Sherry Stephenson
December 2013

Click to access E15-GVCs-Stephenson-Final.pdf

 

 

Asia and Global Production Networks Implications for Trade, Incomes and Economic Vulnerability

Benno Ferrarini

David Hummels

20014

Click to access asia-and-global-production-networks.pdf

 

 

Participation of Developing Countries in Global Value Chains:
Implications for Trade and Trade-Related Policies

by
Przemyslaw Kowalski, Javier Lopez Gonzalez, Alexandros Ragoussis
and Cristian Ugarte

Click to access OECD_Trade_Policy_Papers_179.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: SURVEYING DRIVERS, MEASURES AND IMPACTS

João Amador
Sónia Cabral

2014

Click to access wp20143.pdf

 

World Intermediate goods Exports By Country and Region

2014

WITS World International Trade Statistics

http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/WLD/Year/2014/TradeFlow/Export/Partner/all/Product/UNCTAD-SoP2

 

 

Trade in global value chains

2013

WTO

Click to access its13_highlights4_e.pdf

 

 

The Rise of Trade in Intermediates: Policy Implications

Shimelse Ali,  Uri Dadush
  • February 10, 2011

http://carnegieendowment.org/2011/02/10/rise-of-trade-in-intermediates-policy-implications-pub-42578

 

 

International trade with intermediate and final goods under economic crisis

Elżbieta Czarny, Warsaw School of Economics
Paweł Folfas, Warsaw School of Economics
Katarzyna Śledziewska, Warsaw University

Click to access 375.pdf

 

 

 

Trade in Intermediate Goods: Implications for Productivity and Welfare in Korea

Young Gui Kim

Hak K. PYO

Date Written: December 30, 2016

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2929118

 

 

Growing Together: Economic Ties between the United States and Mexico

BY CHRISTOPHER WILSON

Click to access growing_together_economic_ties_between_the_united_states_and_mexico.pdf

 

 

Mapping Global Value Chains: Intermediate Goods Trade and Structural Change in the World Economy

Timothy J. Sturgeon
Olga Memedovic

Click to access WP%2005%20Mapping%20Glocal%20Value%20Chains.pdf

 

India’s Intermediate Goods Trade in the Inter Regional Value Chain:
An examination based on Trade data and Input Output Analysis

Simi Thambi

Click to access 10_2%20fp.pdf

 

Global Supply Chains

Click to access pub4253_2.pdf

 

 

Global value chains in a changing world

Edited by Deborah K. Elms and Patrick Low

Click to access aid4tradeglobalvalue13_e.pdf

 

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

 

Multiple Perspectives on production and distribution planning

  • Plant and Distribution Center Location problem – Strategic – Structural and Design
  • Procurement problem – where to source from – Tactical – Allocation, Assignment
  • Production and Distribution Scheduling – Operational  – Managing Flows
  • Multi Echelon Inventory Management- Operational – Managing Stocks
  • Supply Chain Integration, Collaboration, Coordination – Hierarchical Planning

Normally, production and distribution planning are handled separately in firms.  Integrated planning of production and distribution can add significant value to a company, particularly, in strategic decisions.

 

From Facility Location and Supply Chain Management – A comprehensive review

Since, in the literature, model objectives change as a function of the planning horizon length, we consider it opportune to define the features of each horizon in order to contextualize the parameters chosen for the models’ comparison. According to [14], the planning horizons of the supply chain can be clustered as follows:
• Strategic planning: this level refers to a long-term horizon (3-5 years) and has the objective of identifying strategic decisions for a production network and defining the optimal configuration of a supply chain. The decisions involved in this kind of
planning include vertical integration policies, capacity sizing, technology selection, sourcing, facility location, production allocation and transfer pricing policies.
• Tactical planning: this level refers to a mid-term horizon (1-2 years) and has the objective of fulfilling demand and managing material flows, with a strong focus on the trade-off between the service level and cost reduction. The main aspects considered in tactical planning include production allocation, supply chain coordination, transportation policies, inventory policies, safety stock sizing and supply chain lead time reduction.
• Operational planning: this level refers to a short term period (1 day to 1 year) and has the objective of determining material/logistic requirement planning. The decisions involved in programming include the allocation of customer demands, vehicle routing, and plant and warehouse scheduling.

 

From

pdp2

 

 

From  Integrated Location-Production-Distribution Planning in a
Multi products Supply Chain Network Design Model

pdp

 

Key words:

  • ‘supply chain strategic design’,
  • ‘supply chain planning’,
  • ‘supply chain optimization’,
  • ‘supply chain network design’,
  • ‘supply chain production planning’,
  • ‘supply chain delocalization’,
  • ‘logistic network design’,
  • ‘facility location’,
  • ‘distribution network design’,
  • ‘production-distribution systems’,
  • ‘location-allocation problem’,
  • ‘supply chain linear programming’
  • ‘supply chain mixed-integer programming’.

From  From Manufacturing to Distribution: The Evolution of ERP in Our New Global Economy

Over the past fifty years, manufacturing has changed from individual companies producing and distributing their own products, to a global network of suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors. Efficiency, price, and quality are being scrutinized in the production of each product. Because of this global network, manufacturers are competing on a worldwide scale, and they have moved their production to countries where the costs of labor and capital are low in order to gain the advantages they need to compete.

Today, the complex manufacturing environment faces many challenges. Many products are manufactured in environments where supplies come from different parts of the world. The components to be used in supply chain manufacturing are transported across the globe to different manufacturers, distributors, and third party logistics (3PL) providers. The challenges for many manufacturers have become how to track supply chain costs and how to deal with manufacturing costs throughout the production of goods. Software vendors, however, are now addressing these manufacturing challenges by developing new applications.

Global competition has played a key role in industrialized countries shifting from being production-oriented economies to service-based economies. Manufacturers in North America, Western Europe, and other industrialized nations have adapted to the shift by redesigning their manufacturing production into a distribution and logistics industry, and the skills of the labor force have changed to reflect this transition. Developing countries have similarly changed their manufacturing production environments to reflect current demands; they are accommodating the production of goods in industries where manufacturers have chosen to move their production offshore–the textile industry being a prime example of this move.

A report from the US Census Bureau titled Statistics for Industry Groups and Industries: 2005 and another from Statistics Canada titled Wholesale Trade: The Year 2006 in Review indicate that wholesalers are changing their business models to become distributors as opposed to manufacturers. Between 2002 and 2005, overall labor and capital in the manufacturing sectors decreased substantially. US industry data (from about 10 years ago) indicates that the North American manufacturing industry was engaged in 80 percent manufacturing processes and only 20 percent distribution activities. Today, however, these percentages have changed dramatically; the current trend is in the opposite direction. Manufacturing processes account for around 30 percent of the industry processes, and wholesale and distribution activities, approximately 70 percent.

In addition, a report from the National Association of Manufacturers indicates that the US economy imports $1.3 trillion (USD) worth of manufactured goods, but exports only $806 billion (USD) worth of goods manufactured in the US. This negative trade balance is a clear indication of the changing economic trend toward the manufacturing of goods in low-cost labor nations.

The main reason for this huge manufacturing shift is the increasing operating costs of production in industrialized countries. These rising costs are forcing manufacturers to move their production to developing nations because of the low cost of labor in these countries. This includes Asian countries (such as China and Indonesia) as well as Eastern European countries (such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia).

The number of workers (in percentages) in specified industries in G7 countries, and uses 1980 as the base year with 100 percent full employment in each industry. The industries with relatively constant rates of employment are the food and drink and the tobacco industries. Since 1995, all other industries have been maintaining less and less manufacturing employees, as indicated by the declining slopes in the graph. The shift in the textiles and leather, metals, and other manufacturing industries is moving toward production of goods in low-wage, developing countries.

Manufacturing is a global industry, and although a manufacturing company may be based in an industrialized country, it may have the bulk of its manufacturing facilities in a developing country. Producing goods in such a country reduces wage and capital costs for the manufacturer; however, some manufacturing control is lost in offshore production. Shipping, distribution, and rental costs, for example, are often difficult to track and manage, and quality control can be compromised in a production environment that is not local.

Two main outcomes can be seen within the manufacturing industry because of this manufacturing shift: manufacturers have a sense of having relinquished control of their production to low-cost labor nations, and supply chain management (SCM) has now become the answer to manufacturing within industrialized nations.

Suppliers that provide components to manufacturers often have issues with quality. Being part of a large network of suppliers, each supplier tries to offer the lowest prices for its products when bidding to manufacturers. Although a supplier may win the bid, its products may not be up to standard, and this can lead to the production of faulty goods. Therefore, when using offshore suppliers, quality issues, product auditing, and supplier auditing become extremely important.

Because the manufacturing model is changing, manufacturing has become more of a service-based industry than a pure manufacturing industry. Even though the physical process of manufacturing hasn’t changed, the actual locations of where the goods are being produced have. This fact is now compelling industrialized countries to engage in more assembly driven activities–a service-based model. The manufacturing process has transformed into obtaining parts and reassembling them into the final product. The final product is then redistributed throughout the appropriate channel or to the consumer. SCM methods are now reacting to this change as well; they are taking into account final assembly needs, and they are distributing particular products to consumers or manufacturers.

SCM is becoming the norm for manufacturers in the industrialized world. Offshoring is now standard practice, and methods such as SCM have been set up to deal with these economic and logistical business realities.

The economic shift happening in both industrialized and developing countries is dramatic. As the level of management knowledge increases, better methods of constructing offshore products are available in SCM solutions. In both types of economies, the changes in the labor force skill sets and manufacturing environments have consequently led to new software solutions being developed in order to manage this dramatic change.

Within the software industry, many SCM and enterprise resource-planning (ERP) vendors are following the economic shift. They are developing new functionality–ERP-distribution software–to meet the recent demands and needs of the changing manufacturing and distribution industries.

SCM and ERP software are converging to better address these new demands in the manufacturing industry. In the enterprise software market, ERP software vendors have reached a point of saturation; their installs are slowing down and they are seeing a reduction in sales. Therefore, ERP providers are developing new functionality in order to remain competitive with other ERP vendors, in addition to looking for new opportunities. ERP vendors are trying to adapt to the changing market in order to increase their revenues. They are integrating SCM functionality into their ERP offerings, creating ERP-distribution software that can span the entire production process across many continents (if necessary), and that is able to track final goods, components, and materials.

Traditional ERP solutions included some SCM functionality, which was needed to distribute the companies’ produced goods. These systems also allowed components and parts to be imported in order to assemble these goods. But offshore manufacturing and expansion into new markets has required SCM functionality in ERP software to be extended. Some larger vendors have acquired other companies in order to meet these changing demands. For example, Oracle acquired G-Log, a transportation management systems (TMS) vendor, and Agile, a product lifecycle management (PLM) vendor; and Activant acquired Intuit Eclipse.

SCM software vendors, in contrast, have felt encroached upon by ERP vendors. The situation has posed a real threat to SCM providers in the market, forcing them to extend their ERP functionality to compete with ERP vendors and to try to gain new clients in the distribution and logistics industry.

ERP-distribution software has integrated SCM functionality into its existing functionality to navigate through the complex global manufacturing environment. SCM software maps five processes into one solution: planning, sourcing (obtaining materials), producing, delivering, and returning final products if defective. These processes help to track and manage the goods throughout their entire life cycles. In addition, ERP solutions are used to manage the entire operations of an organization, not only a product’s life cycle. This gives users the broad capability to manage operations and use the SCM functionality to manage the movement of goods, whether components or finished product.

With the ability to gain accurate inventory visibility and SCM production, ERP-distribution software is able to see the whole chain of manufacturing and distribution events, from supplier to manufacturer, all the way to the final consumer.

There are three business models.

  • The first is the SCM model, which includes the manufacturing process.
  • The second is the retail model, which is the distribution of final products to the consumer, business, or retailer.
  • The third model is a combination of the first two business models, joined by the ERP-distribution software solution into one seamless process.

Within the SCM process, goods can either be brought in (imported) through foreign manufacturers, or acquired locally. The goods are then given to a distributor, 3PL provider, or wholesaler in order to reach the final client.

Within the retail model, the products are taken from a distributor, 3PL provider, or wholesaler, and are distributed to the appropriate person. Note that there is a “shift” for the consumer. This is to indicate that through the Internet or other forms of technology, consumers are now able to buy directly from distributors. The power of the consumer has changed; where manufacturers once provided products to consumers, consumers are now creating demand, and manufacturers have to meet that demand.

SCM solutions focus on the relationship between the supplier and manufacturer. However, ERP- distribution software has taken functionality from SCM software and combined it with retail software (such as point-of-sale and e-commerce solutions); it is now able to span across the entire supply chain and to track goods along the complete manufacturing process.

This is a simplified view of the complexities of today’s manufacturing processes. These complexities have made it crucial for trading partners to unite with manufacturers in order to help alleviate the frustrations that can occur within this global network. Specifically, trading partners are coming together with manufacturers to unite services, products, and customer experience so that business processes (such as manufacturing and distribution) become more efficient and that goods can move through these processes with minimal problems.

SCM can be thought of as the management of “warehousing processes,” in which the movement of goods occurs through multiple warehouses or manufacturing facilities. Tracking the costs of moving products and components through the maze of warehousing and manufacturing facilities is a tricky process, and many organizations lose money at each warehousing step.

Within the flow of goods in the manufacturing sector, the warehouse is a crucial part of the supply chain. Traditionally, the warehouse has been a source of frustration because the manufacturer or supplier pays for the use of the warehouse (whether owned or rented by the company). This leads to two possible scenarios: 1) the costs of the warehouse are incurred by a 3PL or manufacturing company, or 2) the costs are passed from one warehouse to another warehouse, and the original warehouse charges for these costs.

The typical warehouse process includes the following steps: receiving, put away, picking, kitting, packing, repacking, cross-docking, and shipping. ERP-distribution software is able to track costs across the entire organization and to aid companies in reducing costs that were previously tough to track.

ERP-distribution system encompasses the entire production of the final good. The ERP- distribution system is able to include inventory visibility from points “A to Z” (start to finish) and to track each warehouse cost from supplier to manufacturer to user, whether consumer, business, or retailer.

The Final Word: ERP-distribution software has been developed to meet the growing needs of the manufacturing and distribution industries. The capabilities incorporated into the software work across entire organizations, and even across continents.

Because of the economic shift in the manufacturing industry, the emergence of new software has been vital for businesses to stay competitive, meet the industry demands and emerging shift, and to keep business processes efficient to gain better profit margins.

ERP-distribution software is able to track the processes of manufacturing goods and distributing components, even if the manufacturer has facilities in North America and the Far East. With the SCM component in ERP software, manufacturing and tracking goods becomes manageable. Distributors and manufacturers can now work together in order to better meet customer requirements.

In addition of factors for domestic location selection analysis, other factors in international location selection are:

  • Exchange Rates
  • Taxes and Tariffs
  • Transfer Prices

How do companies in Computers, Automotive, Apparel, Electronics, Consumer Goods, Machinery manage their supply chain planning functions?  What software do they use for forecasting, planning, and scheduling?

I know of these software solutions for Network Design and Optimization:

Key Sources of Research:

 

Combined Strategic and Operational Planning – An MILP Success Story in Chemical Industry

Josef Kallrath

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.506.4194&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Planning in the Process Industry

Josef Kallrath

Click to access kallrath2008d.pdf

 

Solving Planning and Design Problems in the Process Industry Using Mixed Integer and Global Optimization

Josef Kallrath

Click to access kallr05a.pdf

 

 

Mathematical Programming Models and Formulations for Deterministic Production
Planning Problems

Yves Pochet

Click to access Pochet.pdf

 

Supply Network Planning and Plant Scheduling in the Chemical-Pharmaceutical Industry – A Case Study Investigation

Gang Yang, Martin Grunow and Hans-Otto Guenther

Click to access SNPandPSinCPI2003.pdf

 

 

Advanced Planning and Scheduling Solutions in Process Industry

Editors: Günther, Hans-Otto, van Beek, Paul (Eds.)

http://www.springer.com/la/book/9783540002222

 

Advanced Planning and Scheduling in Manufacturing and Supply Chains

Authors: Mauergauz, Yuri

http://www.springer.com/la/book/9783319275215

 

 

Centralised supply chain master planning employing advanced planning systems

Martin Rudberga* and Jim Thulin

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.177.7313&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Planning and Scheduling in Supply Chains: An Overview of Issues in Practice

Stephan Kreipl • Michael Pinedo

Click to access 2004-01-Kreipl.pdf

 

 

Sales and operations planning in the process industry

Sayeh Noroozi

Joakim Wikner

Click to access Salesandoperationsplanningintheprocessindustry.pdf

 

 

Optimal planning in large multi-site production networks

Christian H. Timpe, Josef Kallrath

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.565.6621&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Mixed Integer Optimization in the Chemical Process Industry –
Experience, Potential and Future Perspectives

Josef Kallrath

Click to access kall00c.pdf

 

Planning and scheduling in the process industry

Josef Kallrath

2002

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/79f2/bba952f67315ccfd639ce874f966b02d1c18.pdf?_ga=2.18515577.1763587969.1506656275-754417939.1465928807

 

Modeling and design of global logistics systems: A review of integrated strategic and tactical models and design algorithms

Marc Goetschalckx  Carlos J.Vidal, Koray Dogan

Click to access 09e4150b3dc45e40ef000000.pdf

 

 

Strategic Analysis of Integrated Production- Distribution Systems: Models and Methods

Morris Cohen and H Lee

1988

Click to access 554578ab0cf23ff71686afbc.pdf

 

 

Integrated production/distribution planning in supply chains: An invited review

Sß. Selcßuk Erengucß a, N.C. Simpson b, Asoo J. Vakharia

1999

Click to access 1999_EJOR.pdf

 

 

A Review of Integrated Analysis of Production-Distribution Systems

Ana Maria Sarmiento, Rakesh Nagi

1999

Click to access ana.pdf

 

Managing Perishability in Production-Distribution Planning: a discussion and review

P. Amorim H. Meyr C. Almeder
B. Almada-Lobo

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.475.3138&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Input-Output Analysis For Multi-location Supply Chain Management Control:
A Theoretic Model

Wang Lu, Tong Rencheng

Click to access Wang-274.pdf

 

 

Using Operational Research for Supply Chain Planning in the Forest
Products Industry

Sophie D’Amours

Mikael Ro¨nnqvist

Andres Weintraub

http://repositorio.uchile.cl/bitstream/handle/2250/125029/DâAmours_Sophie.pdf?sequence=1

 

 

Mathematical programming models for supply chain production and
transport planning

Josefa Mula *, David Peidro, Manuel Díaz-Madroñero, Eduardo Vicens

2010

Click to access 83f7e2405a9539c86dd593f5bb064f2695d5.pdf

 

 

Formation of a strategic manufacturing and distribution network
with transfer prices

Renato de Mattaa, Tan Millerb

Click to access 28a955be33b7a19b2077402d5b3b9cca1151.pdf

 

 

MEASURING THE IMPACT OF TRANSFER PRICING ON THE CONFIGURATION
AND PROFIT OF AN INTERNATIONAL SUPPLY CHAIN: PERSPECTIVES FROM
TWO REAL CASES

Marc Goetschalckx, Carlos J. Vidal and Javier I. Hernández

Click to access arq0310.pdf

 

 

Integrated Strategic Planning of Global Production Networks and Financial Hedging
under Uncertain Demands and Exchange Rates

Achim Koberstein,
Elmar Lukas,
Marc Naumann

Click to access 10.1007%2FBF03342750.pdf

 

 

 

The Design of Robust Value Creating Supply Chain Networks:  A Critical Review

Click to access CIRRELT-2008-36.pdf

 

 

 

 

Global supply chain design: A literature review and critique.

Meixell, M. J. and Gargeya, V. B.

(2005).

Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, 41(6): 531-550.

Click to access V_Gargeya_Global_2005.pdf

 

 

 

A strategic model for exact supply chain network design and its application to a global manufacturer

C. Arampantzi, I. Minis, G. Dikas

Click to access DeOPSys_Lab_Report_SSCND_2016-5.pdf

 

 

Sequential Vs Integrated Optimization:  Production, Location, Inventory Control and Distribution

July 2017

Click to access CIRRELT-2017-39.pdf

 

 

Measuring Cost Efficiency in an Integrated Model of Production
and Distribution: A Nonparametric Approach

Subhash C. Ray

2011

Click to access 2011-04.pdf

 

 

Optimization/simulation modeling of the integrated production- distribution plan: an innovative survey

BEHNAM FAHIMNIA, LEE LUONG, ROMEO MARIAN

2008

 

Click to access 30-587.pdf

Click to access Optimization-simulation-modeling-of-the-integrated-production-distribution-plan-An-innovative-survey.pdf

 

 

Strategic Planning and Design of Supply Chains: a Literature Review

Alessandro Lambiase, Ernesto Mastrocinque, Salvatore Miranda and Alfredo Lambiase

2013

http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.5772/56858

 

 

The design of production-distribution networks: A mathematical programming approach

Alain Martel

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/226891333_The_Design_of_Production-Distribution_Networks_A_Mathematical_Programming_Approach

 

 

Process industry supply chains: Advances and challenges

Nilay Shah

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.114.4553&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Strategic, Tactical and Operational Decisions in Multi-national Logistics Networks:
A Review and Discussion of Modeling Issues

Gunter Schmidt
and
Wilbert E. Wilhelm

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=5BA6B353BBCA48D0859B902AC3F2610D?doi=10.1.1.25.4951&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Strategic production-distribution models: A critical review with emphasis on global supply chain models

 

 

Dynamics of Global Supply Chain Supernetworks

A. NAGURNEY, J. CRUZ AND D. MATSYPURA

(Received and accepted November 2002)

 

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0895717703001122/1-s2.0-S0895717703001122-main.pdf?_tid=f781c478-a79f-11e7-b471-00000aab0f6c&acdnat=1506969295_6d30c9e8a854b9cc1ec23a57d00143d0

 

 

Integrated production/distribution planning in the supply chain: the Febal case study

Fabio Nonino

Roberto Panizzolo

Click to access 569c133f08ae6169e562795b.pdf

 

 

Integrated supply chain planning under uncertainty using an improved stochastic approach

Hadi Mohammadi Bidhandi a,⇑, Rosnah Mohd Yusuff

 

https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0307904X1000452X/1-s2.0-S0307904X1000452X-main.pdf?_tid=49ede574-a7a1-11e7-87fa-00000aacb360&acdnat=1506969863_699a0bd5cc6d414ed2f1caebcdda820f

 

 

Optimizing the Supply Chain of a Petrochemical Company under Uncertain Operating and Economic Conditions

Haitham M. S. Lababidi,*,† Mohamed A. Ahmed,‡ Imad M. Alatiqi,† and Adel F. Al-Enzi§

Click to access 5620c42208ae93a5c9244ea5.pdf

 

 

A strategic model for exact supply chain network design and its application to a global manufacturer

C. Arampantzi, I. Minis, G. Dikas

Click to access DeOPSys_Lab_Report_SSCND_2016-5.pdf

 

 

Sequential versus Integrated Optimization: Lot Sizing, Inventory Control and Distribution

Maryam Darvish*, Leandro C. Coelho

Click to access CIRRELT-2017-39.pdf

 

 

A MANUFACTURING ENGINEERING PERSPECTIVE ON SUPPLY CHAIN INTEGRATION

Samuel H. Huang, Ge Wang

John P. Dismukes

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.41.1852&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

A review and critique on integrated production–distribution planning models and techniques

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

Trends in Intra Firm Trade of USA

 

 

Intra Firm Trade

Intra-firm trade consist of trade between parent companies of a compiling country with their affiliates abroad and trade of affiliates under foreign control in this compiling country with their foreign parent group.

Intra Industry Trade

Different types of trade are captured in measurements of intra-industry trade:

a) Trade in similar products (“horizontal trade”) with differentiated varieties (e.g. cars of a similar class and price range).

b) Trade in “vertically differentiated” products distinguished by quality and price (e.g. exports of high-quality clothing and imports of lower-quality clothing).

 

From GLOBALISATION AND INTRA-FIRM TRADE: AN EMPIRICAL NOTE

 

Products which are traded internationally, but which stay within the ambit of a multinational enterprise (MNE), represent a significant portion of foreign trade for several OECD countries. This type of trade is called intra-firm trade as opposed to international trade among unrelated parties, also called arm’s length trade. Intra-firm trade is an important part of the process of globalisation, by which is meant the increasing interdependence of markets and production in different countries through trade in goods and services, cross-border flows of capital, and exchanges of technology.

The phenomenon of intra-firm trade is of interest to trade policy makers, as well as to competition and tax authorities. The use of transfer pricing in intra-firm trade may introduce an element of uncertainty into the value of a fairly large part of international trade and into customs valuation needed for the application of tariffs or similar measures. Competition and tax issues may also arise from intra-firm trade to the extent that the latter may facilitate the dissimulation of real transaction prices between the parent company and its affiliates.

A surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) during the 1980s’ has been cited as evidence in favour of globalisation; it is argued that MNEs have played a central role in globalisation by extending their corporate networks beyond national boundaries through the establishment of foreign branches and subsidiaries. It is often assumed that intra-firm trade reflects these foreign production activities by MNEs, as they trans- fer their factors of production from one country to another.

Little attention has been paid so far to the phenomenon of intra-firm trade. The literature on the subject is still relatively limited and recent. This is partly because most international trade statistics do not distinguish between intra-firm trade and arm’s length trade.

 

From GLOBALISATION AND INTRA-FIRM TRADE: AN EMPIRICAL NOTE

In considering the interrelationship between globalisation and international trade, it is conceptually useful to distinguish between four types of international trade:

(A) intra industry, intra-firm trade;

(B) intra-industry, arm’s-length trade;

(C) inter-industry, intra firm trade;

(D) inter-industry, arm’s-length trade.

Intra-industry trade is defined as the mutual exchange of similar goods within the same product category (Grubel and Lloyd, 1975, and Greenaway and Milner, 1986).

Intra-industry trade is generally a function of product differentiation and may or may not involve intra-firm trade. If motor vehicles produced in France are exported to the United States and U.S.-built motor vehicles are exported to France, the two countries are said to be involved in intra-industry trade even though such trade is not necessarily intra-firm trade. Intra-industry trade can be readily calculated for any given product category, as only the traditional bilateral trade statistics for that product category are needed.

Intra firm trade is harder to quantify, since knowledge of the relationship between the firms involved in the transactions is necessary. Data on intra-firm trade are available only. through firm surveys, involving the preparation of questionnaires by national authorities.

Most trade in manufactured goods among OECD countries is of the intra-industry type.  Intra-industry trade is particularly important within Europe, and to a lesser extent, in North America, accounting for roughly 60 to 70 per cent of total trade in manufacture.  This trade generally concerns differentiated products exchanged between countries that are similar in terms of per capita income and relative factor endowments. It has also been argued that economies of scale play an important role in explaining the industry pattern of intra-industry trade.

On the other hand, trade between developed and developing countries (“North-South”) is mostly of the inter-industry type, reflecting large differences in relative factor endowments between the two groups of countries. Inter-industry trade among unrelated parties (type D) – e.g. international exchange of cotton cloth produced by northern manufacturers for wine produced by southern farmers .- is the type of trade which international trade textbooks traditionally deal with.

Trade in manufactured goods between developed countries is predominantly of the intra-industry type and often takes the form of intra-firm trade. An important example of intra-industry, intra-firm trade (Type A) is United States-Canada-Mexico automobile trade. Intra-firm trade is also the dominant pattern of U.S. exports to Canada and Europe in the case of non-electrical machinery and chemicals. Another example is trade in manufactured goods between Pacific Asian economies. These economies have seen a rapid increase in intra-industry trade as a proportion of their total trade over the last decade. Such increase in intra-industry trade in Pacific Asian economies can be primarily attributed to the globalisation of corporate activities by U.S. and Japanese firms and, more recently, by other Asian firms. This involves assembly-line production based on imported parts and components in different countries in East and South East Asia (Fukasaku, 1992; Gross, 1986).

 

 

IFT

 

From An Overview of U.S. Intrafirm-trade Data Sources

 

ift2

There are large differences in BEA data and Census data particularly for Imports.  There are some measurement issues.  Import data from Mexico and China show big errors.

 

From An Overview of U.S. Intrafirm-trade Data Sources

IFT3

 

From An Overview of U.S. Intrafirm-trade Data Sources

IFT4

 

Data sources of Intra Firm Trade

  • BEA (Intra Firm Trade Data)
  • US Census Bureau (Related party trade data)

 

From Intrafirm Trade and Vertical Fragmentation in U.S. Multinational Corporations

First, we show that, although intra-MNC trade represents an important fraction of aggregate U.S. exports and imports, the median manufacturing foreign affiliate ships nothing to — and receives nothing from — its parent in the United States. Intra-MNC trade is concentrated in a small group of large affiliates and large corporations: The largest five percent of affiliates accounts for around half of the total trade to and from the parent, while the largest five percent of corporations accounts for almost two thirds of total intra- MNC trade. This skewness is also observed within the corporation: Intra-MNC trade tends to be concentrated in a small number of an MNC’s largest foreign affiliates.

The lack of intra-MNC cross-border trade that we find for foreign affiliates of U.S. multinationals is more surprising than the similar finding in Atalay et al. (2014) for intrafirm trade within the United States. Factor price differences — the theoretical motivation for vertical fragmentation and the intrafirm trade that accompanies it — are much larger across countries than across U.S. cities. In this regard, Brainard (1993) first documented the weak relationship between factor endowments and intra-MNC trade across borders.

The skewness of intra-MNC trade towards large affiliates and corporations in our first finding is reminiscent of the skewness in the distributions of other international activities. Manufacturing exports are concentrated in large firms (Bernard and Jensen, 1995), and even larger firms own foreign affiliates (Helpman et al., 2004). These patterns are consistent with theories of the firm that are based on economies of scale in production. In Grossman et al. (2006), for example, the production of inputs for the entire multinational corporation is concentrated into a few large affiliates, which exploit the strong economies of scale in production. Affiliates created to supply a foreign market — as an alternative to exporting, in order to avoid transportation costs — are relatively small. The model predicts that a small number of large affiliates ship goods within the corporation, while numerous smaller affiliates serve local markets. The concentration of intra-MNC trade in the largest firms is also consistent with the contract theory of the multinational firm proposed by Antras and Helpman (2004): In their framework with heterogeneous firms, only the largest firms choose to integrate offshore activities.

Our second set of facts relates intra-MNC trade to the upstream and downstream links between the industries of the parent and affiliate, as defined by the U.S. input-output table. As previously shown in Alfaro and Charlton (2009), we find that multinational corporations own affiliates in industries that are vertically linked to the parent’s industry. The input-output coefficient between the affiliate’s and the parent’s industries of operation, however, is not related to the existence and the magnitude of the trade in goods between the two. These findings are similar to those in Atalay et al. (2014), who study multi-establishment firms within the United States: The ownership of vertically linked affiliates is not related to the transfer of goods within the boundaries of the firm.

 

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

GLOBALISATION AND INTRA-FIRM TRADE: AN EMPIRICAL NOTE

Marcos Bonturi and Kiichiro Fukasaku

1993

Click to access 33948827.pdf

 

 

U.S. Direct Investment Abroad: Trends and Current Issues

James K. Jackson
Specialist in International Trade and Finance

June 29, 2017

Click to access RS21118.pdf

 

Foreign Direct Investment in the United States (FDIUS): Final Results from the 2012 Benchmark Survey

 

https://www.bea.gov/international/fdius2012_final.htm

 

 

U.S. Direct Investment Abroad (USDIA): Revised 2009 Benchmark Data

https://www.bea.gov/international/usdia2009r.htm

 

U.S. Intrafirm Trade in Goods

By William J. Zeile

1997

Click to access 0297iid.pdf

 

Global Production: Firms, Contracts, and Trade Structure

Pol Antràs
Harvard University
June, 2015

Click to access global_production_slides.pdf

 

 

Trade in Goods Within Multinational Companies:
Survey-Based Data and Findings for the United States of America

William J. Zeile
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Washington, DC 20230
2003

Click to access IFT_OECD_Zeile.pdf

 

 

An Overview of U.S. Intrafirm-trade Data Sources

Kim J. Ruhl
New York University Stern School of Business
May 2013

Click to access Ruhl_USIntrafirm-tradeData_May2013.pdf

 

 

How Well is U.S. Intrafirm Trade Measured?

By KIM J. RUHL

20015

Click to access How_Well_March_2015.pdf

 

 

 

An Overview of U.S. Intrafirm-trade Data Sources

Kim J. Ruhl
New York University Stern School of Business
May 2013

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.343.7532&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

THE DETERMINANTS OF INTRAFIRM TRADE

Gregory Corcos

Delphine M. Irac

Giordano Miony

Thierry Verdier

First draft: January 26, 2008. This draft : December 9, 2010.

Click to access coirmive.pdf

 

 

MULTINATIONAL FIRMS AND THE STRUCTURE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Pol Antràs
Stephen R.Yeaple

Working Paper 18775

February 2013

Click to access w18775.pdf

 

 

INTRA-FIRM TRADE AND PRODUCT CONTRACTIBILITY (LONG VERSION)

Andrew B. Bernard
J. Bradford Jensen
Stephen J. Redding
Peter K. Schott

April 2010

Click to access w15881.pdf

 

 

FIRMS, CONTRACTS, AND TRADE STRUCTURE

POL ANTRAS

Click to access fcts.pdf

 

 

On Intra-firm Trade and Multinationals: Offshoring and Foreign Outsourcing in Manufacturing

  • Ashok Deo Bardhan
  • Dwight Jaffee

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1057%2F9780230522954_2

 

 

INTRAFIRM TRADE AND VERTICAL FRAGMENTATION IN U.S. MULTINATIONAL
CORPORATIONS

Natalia Ramondo
Veronica Rappoport
Kim J. Ruhl
August 2015

Click to access w21472.pdf

 

 

 

INTRA-FIRM TRADE: PATTERNS, DETERMINANTS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Rainer Lanz,
Sébastien Miroudot,

OECD

Click to access 5kg9p39lrwnn.pdf

 

 

Intrafirm Trade and Product Contractibility

By Andrew B. Bernard, J. Bradford Jensen, Stephen J. Redding,
and Peter K. Schott

Click to access Intrafirm_trade_and_product_compatibility_(lsero).pdf

 

Vertical Specialization in Multinational Firms

Gordon H. Hanson

Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr.

Matthew J. Slaughter

Initial Draft: September 2002

Click to access VertSpec.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS SURVEYING DRIVERS AND MEASURES

João Amador and Sónia Cabral

2014

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1739.en.pdf?13f6d86f40a3c60325f27cbc08a18742

Click to access wp20143.pdf

 

 

EU-US ECONOMIC LINKAGES:
THE ROLE OF MULTINATIONALS AND INTRA-FIRM TRADE

C. Lakatos and T. Fukui

2013

Click to access tradoc_151922.%202_November%202013.pdf

 

 

THREE ESSAYS ON INTRAFIRM TRADE

Sooyoung Lee

2015

http://scholar.colorado.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1061&context=econ_gradetds

 

 

 

On Intra-Firm Trade and Multinationals: Foreign Outsourcing and Offshoring in Manufacturing

Ashok Deo Bardhan

Dwight Jaffee

2004

Click to access d993275ddc9ba520060c9022fb84435a4d6a.pdf

 

International Fragmentation of Production and the Intrafirm Trade
of U.S. Multinational Companies

Maria Borga and William J. Zeile

January 22, 2004

Click to access intrafirmtradejanuary04.pdf

 

 

 

Globalization and trade flows: what you see is not what you get!

Andreas Maurer and Christophe Degain

Click to access ersd201012_e.pdf

 

 

How US corporations structure their international production chains

Natalia Ramondo, Veronica Rappoport, Kim Ruhl

07 October 2015

http://voxeu.org/article/international-production-networks-and-intra-firm-trade-new-evidence

 

 

 

WHY DO FIRMS OWN PRODUCTION CHAINS?

Enghin Atalay
Ali Hortacsu
Chad Syverson

April 2012

Click to access w18020.pdf

 

 

 

Vertical Integration and Input Flows

Enghin Atalay

Ali Hortaçsu

Chad Syverson

August, 2013

Click to access verticalownership.pdf

Click to access viplantevidence.pdf

 

 

Outsourcing versus Vertical Integration: A Dynamic Model of Industry Equilibrium.

Román Fossati

March 2014

Click to access 1March2014-RomanFossati.pdf

 

 

Production Networks, Geography and Firm Performance

Andrew B. Bernardy

Andreas Moxnesz

Yukiko U. Saitox

This Version: May 2014 –

Click to access MOXNES%20-%20j_network_ERWIT4.pdf

 

 

 

 

Vertical Integration and Firm Boundaries: The Evidence

FRANCINE LAFONTAINE AND MARGARET SLADE

2007

Click to access Lafontaine_Slade%20-%20Vertical%20integration%20and%20firm%20boundaries.pdf

 

 

 

 

Foreign affiliates with and without intra-firm trade:
Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

Sotiris Blanas

Adnan Seric

Click to access WP_13.pdf

 

 

 

Outsourcing, Vertical Integration, and Cost Reduction

Simon Loertscher†

Michael H. Riordan‡

September 8, 2014

Click to access Loertscher_Outsourcing.pdf

 

 

 

VERTICAL PRODUCTION NETWORKS IN MULTINATIONAL FIRMS

Gordon H. Hanson
Raymond J. Mataloni, Jr.
Matthew J. Slaughter

May 2003

Click to access w9723.pdf

 

 

Network structure of production

Enghin Atalaya, Ali Hortaçsua,1, James Robertsb, and Chad Syversonc

Edited by Lars Peter Hansen, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, and approved February 2, 2011 (received for review October 15, 2010)

Click to access pnas.201015564.pdf

 

 

 

Cross-border Vertical Integration and Intra-firm Trade:
New evidence from Korean and Japanese firm-level data

Hyunbae CHUN

Jung HUR

Young Gak KIM

Hyeog Ug KWON

Click to access 17e049.pdf

Click to access chun_aep_2017.pdf

 

 

 

Offshoring in the Global Economy
Lecture 1: Microeconomic Structure
Lecture 2: Macroeconomic Implications

Robert C. Feenstra

September 2008
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.294.715&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

THE NETWORK STRUCTURE OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE

Thomas Chaney

January 2011

Click to access w16753.pdf

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

 

Foreign Direct Investments of Firms can have three objectives:

  • Vertical Integration (Control of Supply Chain)
  • Horizontal Integration (Seeking Market Share)
  • Diversification ( Market Seeking)

In this post, Focus is on Sourcing of Goods and Services in FDI and Outsourcing Decisions of Firms.  That means focusing on supply chain related issues.

 

From GLOBAL SOURCING

A fi…rm that chooses to keep the production of an intermediate input within its boundaries can produce it at home or in a foreign country. When it keeps it at home, it engages in standard vertical integration. And when it makes it abroad, it engages in foreign direct investment (FDI) and intra-…firm trade. Alternatively, a …firm may choose to outsource an input in the home country or in a foreign country. When it buys the input at home, it engages in domestic outsourcing. And when it buys it abroad, it engages in foreign outsourcing, or arm’s-length trade.

Intel Corporation provides an example of the FDI strategy; it assembles most of its microchips in wholly-owned subsidiaries in China, Costa Rica, Malaysia, and the Philippines. On the other hand, Nike provides an example of the arm’s-length import strategy; it subcontracts most of its manufacturing to independent producers in Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

 

 

Intermediate Goods – Make vs.  Buy Decisions of Firms

 

Outsourcing2

 

From Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy

 

The rising integration of world markets has brought with it a disintegration of the production process, in which manufacturing or services activities done abroad are combined with those performed at home. Companies are now finding it profitable to outsource increasing amounts of the production process, a process which can happen either domestically or abroad. This represents a breakdown in the vertically-integrated mode of production – the so-called “Fordist” production, exemplified by the automobile industry – on which American manufacturing was built. A number of prominent researchers have referred to the importance of the idea that production occurs internationally: Bhagwati and Dehejia (1994) call this “kaleidoscope comparative advantage,” as firms shift location quickly; Krugman (1996) uses the phrase “slicing the value chain”; Leamer (1996) prefers “delocalization;” while Antweiler and Trefler (1997) introduce “intra-mediate trade.” There is no single measure that captures the full range of these activities, but I shall compare several different measures of foreign outsourcing, and argue that they have all increased since the 1970s.

 

Types of Supply Chain Relations:

  • Intra-firm Trade of MNCs
  • Foreign Outsourcing
  • Domestic Outsourcing
  • Vertical Integration

 

Key Terms:

  • Production Sharing
  • Vertical Integration
  • Fragmentation of Production
  • Global Value Chains
  • Outsourcing
  • Delocalization
  • Intermediate Goods Trade
  • FDI
  • Domestic Outsourcing
  • Production Offshoring
  • Onshoring
  • Economic Globalization
  • Value Added Tasks
  • Intra-firm Trade
  • Multinational Firms
  • Vertical Specialization
  • Vertical Disintegration
  • Transaction Cost Economics
  • Trade in Value Added Tasks
  • Vertical Production Networks
  • Production Unbundling

 

Key Sources of Research:

PHYSICAL CAPITAL, KNOWLEDGE CAPITAL AND THE CHOICE BETWEEN FDI AND OUTSOURCING

Yongmin Chen
Ignatius J. Horstmann
James R. Markusen

Working Paper 14515
http://www.nber.org/papers/w14515

December 2008

Click to access w14515.pdf

 

 

OUTSOURCING VERSUS FDI IN INDUSTRY EQUILIBRIUM

Gene M.Grossman
Elhanan Helpman

Working Paper 9300
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9300

October 2002

Click to access w9300.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL SOURCING

Pol Antràs
Elhanan Helpman

Working Paper 10082
http://www.nber.org/papers/w10082

November 2003

Click to access w10082.pdf

 

 

OUTSOURCING IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY

Gene M. Grossman
Elhanan Helpman

Working Paper 8728
http://www.nber.org/papers/w8728

January 2002

Click to access w8728.pdf

 

 

 

Globalization, Outsourcing, and Wage Inequality

Robert C. Feenstra

Gordon H. Hanson

January 1996

Click to access w5424.pdf

 

Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality:  A Survey of Trade and wages

Robert C. Feenstra

Gordon H. Hanson

2001

Click to access w8372.pdf

 

 

TRADE, FDI, AND THE ORGANIZATION OF FIRMS

Elhanan Helpman

Working Paper 12091
http://www.nber.org/papers/w12091

March 2006

Click to access w12091.pdf

 

 

 

HOME AND HOST COUNTRY EFFECTS OF FDI

Robert E. Lipsey

Working Paper 9293
http://www.nber.org/papers/w9293

October 2002

Click to access w9293.pdf

 

 

Chapter Title: Introduction to “Foreign Direct Investment”

Chapter Author: Kenneth A. Froot
Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6531

1992

Click to access c6531.pdf

 

Chapter Title: Where Are the Multinationals Headed?

Chapter Author: Raymond Vernon
Chapter URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c6534

1992

Click to access c6534.pdf

 

 

 

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Sectoral and Institutional
Approach

James P. Walsh and Jiangyan Yu

2010

Click to access wp10187.pdf

 

 

 

DETERMINANTS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Bruce A. Blonigen
Jeremy Piger

Working Paper 16704
http://www.nber.org/papers/w16704

January 2011

Click to access w16704.pdf

 

 

 

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis

Khondoker Abdul Mottaleba
Kaliappa Kalirajanb

2010

Click to access WP2010_13.pdf

 

 

 

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment

Bruce A. Blonigen

Jeremy Piger

 

2014

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2535582

 

Trends and Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in South Asia

World Bank

2013

Click to access ACS48460WP0P13055B00PUBLIC00A9RBBB1.pdf

 

 

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Yi Feng
Publication Date: Jun 2017

http://politics.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-559

http://politics.oxfordre.com/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-559?print=pdf

 

 

 

Foreign direct investment (FDI)

Click to access s4IP1_8736.pdf

 

 

 

Foreign Direct Investment and the Multinational Enterprise: An Introduction

Steven Brakman and Harry Garretsen

2008

Click to access 9780262026451_sch_0001.pdf

 

 

 

AN EXTENSIVE EXPLORATION OF THEORIES OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Patricia Lindelwa Makoni

Click to access 10-22495_rgcv5i2c1art1.pdf

 

 

 

A selective review of foreign direct investment theories.

Nayak, Dinkar and Rahul N. Choudhury (2014).

ARTNeT Working Paper Series No. 143, March 2014,

Click to access 782793517.pdf

 

 

Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy

Robert C. Feenstra

Revised, April 1998

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.39.7178&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 

The Distributional Effects of International Fragmentation,

Kohler, Wilhelm (2002)

Working Paper, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University of Linz, No. 0201

 

Click to access wp0201.pdf

 

 

 

International Fragmentation of Production and the Intrafirm Trade of U.S. Multinational Companies

Maria Borga and William J. Zeile
WP2004-02
January 22, 2004

Paper presented at:

The National Bureau of Economic Research/Conference on Research in Income and Wealth meeting on Firm-level Data, Trade, and Foreign Direct Investment, Cambridge, Massachusetts
August 7-8, 2003,
and
The OECD Committee on Industry and Business Environment/Working Party on Statistics
Session on Globalization,
Paris, France
November 3-4, 2003.

Click to access intrafirmtradejanuary04.pdf

 

 

The governance of global value chains

Gary Gereffi
John Humphrey
Timothy Sturgeon
2005

Click to access GVC_Governance.pdf

 

The economic consequences of increased protectionism

Riksbank of Sweden

2017

Click to access ppr_fordjupning_3_170427_eng.pdf

 

 

 

Deep integration and production networks: an empirical analysis

Gianluca Orefice
Nadia Rocha
World Trade Organization
Manuscript date: July 2011

Click to access ersd201111_e.pdf

 

 

 

Measuring success in the global economy: international trade, industrial
upgrading, and business function outsourcing in global value chains

Timothy J. Sturgeon and Gary Gereffi

Click to access diaeiia200910a1_en.pdf

 

 

 

Topics in International Trade

Reading list

Click to access readings-topics09.pdf

 

 

 

FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, TRADE, AND GLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORKS
IN ASIA AND EUROPE

GPN Working Paper 2
October 2002

Click to access gpnwp2.pdf

 

 

Why has world trade grown faster than world output?

Mark Dean

Maria Sebastia-Barriel

Click to access Other_Paper_1.pdf

 

 

Vertical Specialization, Global Value Chains and the changing Geography of Trade: the Portuguese Rubber and Plastics Industry Case

João Carlos Lopes and Ana Santos

Click to access wp122015.pdf

 

 

The changing structure of trade linked to global production systems: What are the policy implications?

William MILBERG

 

Click to access Changing-Structure-of-Trade-Linked-to-Global-Production-Systems.pdf

 

 

WHO PRODUCES FOR WHOM IN THE WORLD ECONOMY?

Guillaume Daudin (Lille-I (EQUIPPE) & Sciences Po (OFCE), Christine Rifflart, Danielle
Schweisguth (Sciences Po (OFCE))1

This version: July 2009

Click to access WP2009-18.pdf

 

THE NATURE AND GROWTH OF VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION IN WORLD TRADE

David Hummels
Jun Ishii
Kei-Mu Yi
March 1999

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.475.3874&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

Click to access sr72.pdf

 

 

Expansion Strategies of U.S. Multinational Firms

Gordon H. Hanson, Raymond J. Mataloni, and Matthew J. Slaughter

WP2001-01
May 10-11, 2001

Paper presented at:

The Brookings Trade Forum 2001, Washington, D.C.
May 10-11, 2001

Click to access HMS1.PDF

 

 

INTERNATIONAL JOINT VENTURES AND THE BOUNDARIES OF THE FIRM

Mihir A. Desai C. Fritz Foley James R. Hines Jr.

Working Paper 9115 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9115
August 2002

 

Click to access 000000005694_01.PDF

 

 

 

The Globalization of Production

Gordon H. Hanson

 

http://www.nber.org/reporter/spring01/hanson.html

 

 

 

The Politics of Transnational Production Systems A Political Economy Perspective

Helge Hveem
Department of Political Science
University of Oslo

Click to access hveem.pdf

 

 The Architecture of Globalization: A Network Approach to International Economic Integration.

Raja Kali and Javier Reyes

Second Revision: October 9, 2006

Click to access TradeNetwork.pdf

 

 

 

 

 

Paris School of Economics – Summer School on Trade

2017

Click to access trade-sumschool-pse-2017.pdf

 

 

Spain in the global value chains

2017

Click to access beaa1703-art20e.pdf

 

 

 An Outsourcing Bibliography

Foreign Policy magazine

2004

An outsourcing bibliography

 

 

 

OFFSHORING, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, AND THE STRUCTURE OF U.S. TRADE

2006

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.564.6639&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

 A Survey of Literature on Research of Intra-firm Trade

WANG Li, SHEN Rui

Click to access 2013jrgjgc311b13.pdf

 

 

Global Value Chains

OECD, WTO and World Bank Group
Report prepared for submission to the G20 Trade Ministers Meeting Sydney, Australia, 19 July 2014

Click to access gvc_report_g20_july_2014.pdf

 

 

 

TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS AND SERVICES

OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No. 93
by Sébastien Miroudot, Rainer Lanz and Alexandros Ragoussis

Click to access 44056524.pdf

 

 

The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade

James R. Markusen

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.551.4665&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Incomplete Contracts and the Boundaries of the Multinational Firm

Nathan Nunn

Daniel Trefler

June 2008

Click to access NunnTreflerPaper.pdf

 

 

The Theory of the Firm goes Global

Dalia Marin

2008

Click to access 370.pdf

The Collapse of Global Trade during Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009

The Collapse of Global Trade during Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009

There are three broad categories of global Trade.

  • Trade in Commodities
  • Trade in Manufactured Goods
  • Trade in Services

During the Financial Crisis, Trade in commodities declined due to increase in Prices.

Trade in Services were largely unaffected.

Trade in Manufactured goods declined sharply for variety of reasons not yet entirely clear.

 

Potential Causes for decline

  • Fall in Aggregate Demand of goods
  • Constrained Trade Finance
  • Increase in Trade Barriers
  • Impact of Global Value Chains

 

From GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN A POSTCRISIS WORLD A DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE

The global economic crisis of 2008–09 has revealed the interdependence of the world economy. The financial crisis originated in the United States, but the resulting economic downturn quickly spread to the rest of the world. Trade, along with finance, was one of the main vectors of transmission of the crisis. In 2009, there was a massive contraction in global trade—minus 13 percent. The contraction was largely a reflection of a drop in demand, especially for durable goods. The fact that the shock was transmitted very rapidly reflects the increasing reliance by businesses on so-called global value chains (GVCs)—the process of ever-finer specialization and geographic fragmentation of production, with the more labor-intensive parts of the production process transferred to developing countries. In a world where GVCs are the prevalent business model for multinational corporations, a reduction in demand for final products by global buyers implies that demand shocks are immediately transmitted “upstream” to subcontractors in developing countries.

 

From Resilient to the crisis? Global supply chains and trade flows

According to the most recent IMF estimates (IMF 2009), the ongoing recovery will drive a wedge between output and trade. Output is supposed to shrink by ‘only’ 1.1% at the end of 2009 (-3.4% in advanced economies), but world trade is forecast to still experience a drop of -11.9%. While other estimates put the latter figure at –9% (WTO, World Bank), it is indisputable that during 2009 official figures recording trade flows will fall much more than GDP.

Apart from its magnitude, the fall in trade in 2009 has also been quite homogeneous across all countries (more than 90% of OECD countries have exhibited simultaneously a decline in exports and imports exceeding 10%, as noted by Araujo and Olivera Martins 2009). This fall has also been very fast, with trade virtually grinding to a halt in the last month of 2008.1 These facts led Baldwin and Evenett (2009) to qualify the drop in trade during the crisis as “severe, sudden and synchronised”.

A number of transmission mechanisms have recently been proposed to account for these three attributes of the contraction of trade flows, many of which impinge upon the role that global supply chains might have played in exacerbating the drop in global demand.

The basic argument is that in a world characterised increasingly by vertical specialisation, goods are produced sequentially in stages across different countries – so-called international supply chains. The constituent parts and components of a final good crosses borders several times before the final product reaches the consumer; at each border crossing, the full value of the partially assembled good is recorded as trade. As a result, for a given reduction in world income, trade should decline “not only by the value of the finished product, but also by the value of all the intermediate trade flows that went into creating it”.

This implies that the extensive presence of supply chains does not automatically explain why world trade overshot the world GDP drop; other explanatory factors are needed. These may include:

  • The collapse in internal demand and production, affecting current and future level of (tradable) inventories worldwide;
  • Fiscal stimulus plans with a relatively stronger support of non-tradable sectors, like construction and infrastructures (Bénassy-Quéré et al. 2009);
  • The rise of ‘murky’ protectionism; and
  • The problems of trade finance with financial spreads still well-above ‘normal’ (i.e. pre-crisis) market rates (Auboin, 2009).

Do the above arguments mean that global supply chains are totally neutral as a transmission mechanism of the crisis from GDP to trade? Of course not. In all likelihood, however, the channels are much more complex than originally thought, and entail important compositional effects.

For the sake of argument, let us take the following story based on the idea that a relatively large part of the overreaction of trade has been caused by the sudden drying up of liquidity in trade finance. Auboin (2009) notes that, in the second part of 2008, spreads on short-term trade credit facilities suddenly soared to between 300 to 600 basis points above LIBOR, compared to 10 to 20 basis points in normal times, leading to a virtual freeze of important trade deals throughout the globe, with supply chain operations being disrupted by lack of financing, especially for developing country suppliers.

Under this assumption we would have a scenario in which the liquidity channel has led trade to overshoot the fall in demand, with the effect being larger within supply chains, as the trade financing of these operations is typically managed by large international financial institutions, particularly hit by the crisis.3

In this scenario, we would still obtain a severe, sudden and synchronised drop in trade flows, with the effects correlated with (but not caused by) the behaviour of global supply chains.

Moreover, under the same scenario, we would also observe that, during the crisis,trade falls more along the intensive margin (i.e. value per trade) than the extensive margins (i.e. number of traders). The reason being that, if the overreaction of trade was caused relatively more by liquidity constraints than by a disruption of supply chains, the above effects would lead to a reduction in the volume of trade, but not necessarily to a similar reduction in the number of traders worldwide.

This is exactly what Bricongne et al. (2009) find in a paper analysing the behaviour of French exporters during the crisis. Relying on monthly data for individual French exporters observed until April 2009, the authors find that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters, with small and large firms evenly affected once sectoral and geographical specialisation are controlled for. Interestingly, they also find that firms (small and large) in sectors more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis.

While any conclusion must wait for more data to become available, there are good reasons to believe that the rise of global supply chains has not necessarily been the main cause of the recent “severe, sudden and synchronised” fall in global trade flows. Based on the available evidence, one may even be tempted to conclude that, under certain circumstances, international networks of production may also display some degree of ‘resilience’ to adverse shocks like the current crisis: supply-chain-related trade flows may react later (rather than sooner) to an adverse shock. Their fall may be smaller and, eventually, their recovery may happen faster relative to overall trade flows.

The observed resilience of supply chains may arise from some intrinsic attribute of production chains, as argued above. Alternatively, it may be the outcome of the political economy. Fearing that a collapse of supply chains would set off a sudden process of de-globalisation and implosion of international trade, governments may intervene in favour of supply chains. For example, the massive bail-outs of large financial institutions have helped their best customers, among them the big players within supply chains. Finally, of course, this indirect support of supply chains may have also been an unintended consequence of financial bailouts implemented for very different reasons.

 

From UNCTAD Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development

gvc

 

Key Terms

  • BLS ( Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • UNCTAD ( United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)
  • NIPAs ( National Income and Product Accounts)
  • OECD ( Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)
  • EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)
  • WTO (world Trade Organization)
  • GATT (General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs)
  • ILO (International Labor Organization)
  • ADB (Asian Development Bank)
  • UNIDO ( United Nations Industrial Development Organization)
  • BEA ( Bureau of Economic Analysis)
  • Production Networks
  • Vertical Specialization
  • Production Fragmentation
  • Intermediate Goods
  • Network Linkages
  • Global Supply Chains
  • Global Value Chains (GVCs)
  • Production Sharing
  • Inter Industry Input Output Tables
  • Inter Country Input Output Tables
  • Global Networks
  • Multi National Companies ( MNCs)
  • Regional Economic Integration
  • Trade Globalization
  • Trade in Goods and Services
  • Trade in Value Added (TIVA)
  • World Input Output Database (WIOD)
  • OECD-WTO TIVA Database
  • UNCTAD-EORA GVC Database
  • Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database
  • Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO) Asian IO Tables
  • World Input Output Network (WION)
  • Global Multi Regional Input Output (GMRIO) Framework
  • EXIOBASE/EXIOPOL EXIOBASE is a global, detailed Multi-regional Environmentally Extended Supply and Use / Input Output (MR EE SUT/IOT) database.

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta

2015

Click to access wp1506.pdf

 

 

The future of global trade: Where are we heading and should we be concerned?

Gaaitzen de Vries
Bart Los
Robert Stehrer
Marcel Timmer

2016

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/the-future-of-global-trade-where-are-we-heading

 

 

Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession

Rudolfs Bems Robert C. Johnson

Kei-Mu Yi

2010

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.186.7680&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade

Rudolfs Bems
Robert C. Johnson
Kei-Mu Yi

AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOL. 101, NO. 3, MAY 2011

Click to access 600661c5f17781a38ca3168026b8663b8ebb.pdf

 

 

The Role of Vertical Linkages in the Propagation of the Global Downturn of 2008

Rudolfs Bems Robert C. Johnson

Kei-Mu Yi

2010

 

Click to access 0e43be03f9da1c48a385b94fbcc4904a3fb0.pdf

 

 

The Great Trade Collapse

Rudolfs Bems, Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi

Annual Review of Economics
Vol.5:1-549 (Volume publication date August 2013)

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS DURING THE GREAT TRADE COLLAPSE

A BULLWHIP EFFECT?

by Carlo Altomonte, Filippo Di Mauro, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Armando Rungi and Vincent Vicard

2012

 

Click to access 169822.pdf

 

 

The bullwhip effect and the Great Trade Collapse

Veronika Zavacka

 

Click to access wp0148.pdf

 

 

Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse

By JaeBin Ahn, Mary Amiti, and David E. Weinstein

2011

 

Click to access Ahn-Amiti-WeinsteinAERPP.pdf

 

 

Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains 

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Yvan Decreux, Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Casteras

Click to access wp2009-15.pdf

 

 

 

The Financial Crisis and Global Supply Chains

 

Robert N. Mefford, University of San Francisco, USA

http://repository.usfca.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=fe

 

 

International Supply Chains and Trade Elasticity in Times of Global Crisis

Click to access ersd201008_e.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS: TRADE AND ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Alessandro Nicita Victor Ognivtsev Miho Shirotori

 

Click to access itcdtab56_en.pdf

 

 

The Great Trade Collapse: Shock Amplifiers and Absorbers in Global Value Chains

Zhengqi Pan

June 2016

 

Click to access Zhengqi%20Pan_GPN2016_008.pdf

 

 

The Age of Global Value Chains: Maps and Policy Issues

 

Click to access JACB201530.pdf

 

 

Asia and Global Production Networks Implications for Trade, Incomes and Economic Vulnerability

 

Click to access asia-and-global-production-networks.pdf

 

 

Mapping globaL Value Chains

Koen De Backer and Sébastien Miroudot

2014

Click to access ecbwp1677.pdf

 

 

Mapping Global Value Chains:

Intermediate Goods Trade and Structural Change in the World Economy

Timothy J. Sturgeon

Olga Memedovic

2011

 

Click to access WP%2005%20Mapping%20Glocal%20Value%20Chains.pdf

 

 

 

World Investment Report 2013:

Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development

2013

 

Click to access wir2013_en.pdf

 

 

Trade finance: developments and issues

Report submitted by a Study Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was chaired by John J Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

January 2014

 

Click to access cgfs50.pdf

 

 

East Asian Value Chains and the Global Financial Crisis

Genet Zinabou

2010

Click to access FR4-14-8-2010-eng.pdf

 

 

The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, Recommendations for the G20

and the crisis

 

Edited by: Richard Baldwin and Simon Evenett

2009

Click to access 2009-03-murky-protectionism.pdf

 

 

Production Sharing in East Asia: Who Does What for Whom and Why?

 

Francis Ng and Alexander Yeats

1999

 

Click to access multi-page.pdf

 

 

PRODUCTION SHARING IN EAST ASIA: CHINA’S POSITION, TRADE PATTERN AND TECHNOLOGY UPGRADING

Laike Yang

 

Click to access gdsmdp20152yang_en.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS SURVEYING DRIVERS AND MEASURES

João Amador and Sónia Cabral

2014

 

Click to access ecbwp1739.en.pdf

 

 

A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process: An International Input-Output Approach

Satoshi Inomata

October 2008

 

Click to access 175.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN A POSTCRISIS WORLD

A DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE

Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz Editors

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.364.8729&rep=rep1&type=pdf#page=97

 

 

THE NATURE AND GROWTH OF VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION IN WORLD TRADE

David Hummels Jun Ishii Kei-Mu Yi

March 1999

 

Click to access sr72.pdf

 

 

TRADE INTEGRATION IN EAST ASIA:
THE ROLE OF CHINA AND PRODUCTION NETWORKS

MONA HADDAD

2007

Click to access wps4160.pdf

 

 

Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?

Prema-chandra Athukorala

No. 56 | August 2010

Click to access wp56-trade-patterns-east-asia.pdf

 

 

Trade Integration and Production Network in East Asia

Pornnapa Leelapornchai

August 2007

 

Click to access Pornnapa.pdf

 

 

Trade patterns and global value chains in East Asia:
From trade in goods to trade in tasks

 

Click to access stat_tradepat_globvalchains_e.pdf

 

 

Global production sharing and trade patterns in East Asia

Prema-chandra Athukorala

June 2013

Click to access TU_VIROT,%20Ali_Reading2_Global%20Production%20Sharing%20and%20Trade%20Patterns%20in%20East%20Asia.pdf

 

 

Global Production Networks in Electronics and Intra-Asian Trade

Byron Gangnes

Ari Van Assche

2010

 

Click to access WP_2010-4.pdf

 

 

The Role of China, Japan, and Korea in Machinery Production Networks

Ayako OBASHI†

Fukunari KIMURA

March 2016

 

Click to access ERIA-DP-2016-10.pdf

 

 

China’s evolving role in global production networks: the decoupling debate revisited

Prema-chandra Athukorala

John Ravenhill

 

Click to access 2016-12_athukorala_ravenhill_wp_june_2016.pdf

 

 

International Production Networks And Changing Trade Patterns In East Asia: The Case Of The Electronics Industry

Dieter Ernst & Paolo Guerrieri

May 1997

Click to access 19970007.pdf

 

 

UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD TRADE COLLAPSE

Calista Cheung and Stéphanie Guichard

2009

http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?doclanguage=en&cote=eco/wkp(2009)70

 

 

GLOBAL TRADE: WHAT’S BEHIND THE SLOWDOWN?

IMF World Economic Outlook Report October 2016

 

Click to access c2.pdf

 

 

A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance

JaeBin Ahn

2011

Click to access 0c96052274d4abea86000000.pdf

 

 

The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects

 

Edited by Richard Baldwin

2009

 

Click to access great_trade_collapse.pdf

 

 

Understanding the Weakness in World Trade

2015

 

Click to access eb201503_article01.en.pdf

 

 

The mystery of the missing world trade growth after the global financial crisis

Hanna armelius, Carl-JoHan Belfrage and Hanna stenBaCka

2014

 

Click to access rap_pov_artikel_1_141121_eng.pdf

 

 

Resilient to the crisis? Global supply chains and trade flows

Carlo Altomonte, Gianmarco Ottaviano

27 November 2009

http://voxeu.org/article/resilient-crisis-global-supply-chains-and-trade-flows

 

 

The great trade collapse: What caused it and what does it mean?

Richard Baldwin

27 November 2009

 

 

The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun

Andrei A. Levchenko

Logan T. Lewis

Linda L. Tesar

2009

 

 

Off the Clif  and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis

Davin Chory

Kalina Manova

This version: December 2009

 

 

WHY THE WORLD SUDDENLY CARES ABOUT GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS

GARY GEREFFI AND JOONKOO LEE

2012

 

 

China’s Slowdown: The First Stage of the Bullwhip Effect

Yossi Sheffi

September 09, 2015

 

 

Financial Crisis and Supply-Chain Financing

Leora Klapper and Douglas Randall

 

 

The mystery of the missing world trade growth after the global financial crisis

Hanna Armelius, Carl-Johan Belfrage and Hanna Stenbacka

2014

 

 

Trade Collapse, Trade Relapse and Global Production Networks: Supply Chains in the Great Recession

Escaith, Hubert

OECD, DEFI, WTO

28. October 2009

 

 

SPIDERS AND SNAKES: OFFSHORING AND AGGLOMERATION IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Richard Baldwin Anthony Venables

Working Paper 16611

2010

 

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN A POSTCRISIS WORLD A DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE

Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz

2010

 

 

Accounting relations in bilateral value added trade

Robert Stehrer

2013

 

Click to access wiod14.pdf

 

 

NETWORKS OF VALUE ADDED TRADE

Working Papers 2015

João Amador | Sónia Cabral

 

 

Trade patterns and global value chains in East Asia: From trade in goods to trade in tasks

WTO Report

 

 

Counting borders in global value chains

Kirill Muradov:

May 2016

 

 

Using Average Propagation Lengths to Identify Production Chains in the Andalusian Economy

ERIK DIETZENBACHER*, ISIDORO ROMERO LUNA** AND NIELS S. BOSMA

2005

https://idus.us.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11441/17372/file_1.pdf?sequence=1

 

 

Trade in Value Added: An East Asian Perspective

Satoshi Inomata

No. 451 December 2013

 

Click to access adbi-wp451.pdf

 

 

TRADE INTERCONNECTEDNESS: THE WORLD WITH GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

2013

 

https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/082613.pdf

 

The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains

by Raphael Auer, Claudio Borio and Andrew Filardo

 

http://www.bis.org/publ/work602.pdf

 

 

 

GLOBAL MULTIREGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT FRAMEWORKS: AN INTRODUCTION AND OUTLOOK

Arnold Tukker a b & Erik Dietzenbacher

2013

Click to access UNSD%20-%20Tukker%20-%20Overview%20on%20International%20IO%20Tables%20-%202013.pdf

 

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

 

From Modeling and Measuring the Bullwhip Effect

Demand variability and uncertainty is a driver of supply chain inventory. Managing supply chains can be a challenge when demand variability and uncertainty is high. For a company in a supply chain consisting of multiple stages, each of which is run by a separate organization (or company), the variability of demand faced by this company can be much higher than the variability faced by downstream stages (where “downstream stages” refers to the stages closer to the final consumption of the product). The bullwhip effect refers to the phenomenon where demand variability amplifies as one moves upstream in a supply chain (Lee et al, 1997a, or LPW). LPW described this as a form of demand information distortion. Lee et al (1997b) further discussed the managerial and practical aspects of the bullwhip effect, giving more industry examples. The bullwhip effect phenomenon is closely related to studies in systems dynamics (Forrester, 1961; Sterman, 1989; Senge, 1990). Sterman (1989) observed a systematic pattern of demand variation amplification in the Beer Game, and attributed it to behavioral causes (i.e., misperceptions of feedback). Macroeconomists have also studied the phenomenon (Holt et al, 1968; Blinder, 1981; Blanchard, 1983).

 

From Operational and Behavioral Causes of Supply Chain Instability

 

Supply chain instability is often described as the bullwhip effect, the tendency for variability to increase at each level of a supply chain as one moves from customer sales to production (Lee et al. 1997, Chen et al. 2000). While amplification from stage to stage is important, supply chain instability is a richer and more subtle phenomenon. The economy, and the networks of supply chains embedded within it, is a complex dynamic system and generates multiple modes of behavior. These include business cycles (oscillation), amplification of orders and production from consumption to raw materials (the bullwhip), and phase lag (shifts in the timing of the cycles from consumption to materials). High product returns and spoilage are common in industries from consumer electronics to hybrid seed corn (Gonçalves 2003). Many firms experience pronounced hockey-stick patterns in which orders and output rise sharply just prior to the end of a month or quarter as the sales force and managers rush to hit revenue goals. Boom and bust dynamics in supply chains are often worsened by phantom orders—orders customers place in response to perceived shortages in an attempt to gain a greater share of a shrinking pie (T. Mitchell 1923, Sterman 2000, ch. 18.3, Gonçalves 2002, Gonçalves and Sterman 2005).

What are the causes of supply chain instability? Why does supply chain instability persist, despite the lean revolution and tremendous innovations in technology? What can be done to stabilize supply chains and improve their efficiency?

Here I describe the origins of supply chain instability from a complex systems perspective. The dynamics of supply chain networks arise endogenously from their structure. That structure includes both operational and behavioral elements.

 

From Operational and Behavioral Causes of Supply Chain Instability

Oscillation, Amplification, and Phase Lag

Exhibit 1 shows industrial production in the US. The data exhibit several modes of behavior. First, the long-run growth rate of manufacturing output is about 3.4%/year. Second, as seen in the bottom panel, production fluctuates significantly around the growth trend. The dominant periodicity is the business cycle, a cycle of prosperity and recession of about 3–5 years in duration, but exhibiting considerable variability.

The amplitude of business cycle fluctuations in materials production is significantly greater than that in consumer goods production (exhibit 2). The peaks and troughs of the cycle in materials production also tend to lag behind those in production of consumer goods. Typically, the amplitude of fluctuations increases as they propagate from the customer to the supplier, with each upstream stage tending to lag behind its customer. These three features, oscillation, amplification, and phase lag, are pervasive in supply chains.

 

From Booms, Busts, and Beer: Understanding the Dynamics of Supply Chains

A central question in operations management is whether the oscillations, amplification and phase lag observed in supply chains arise as the result of operational or behavioral causes.

Operational theories assume that decision makers are rational agents who make optimal decisions given their local incentives and information.  Supply chain instability must then result from the interaction of rational actors with the physical and institutional structure of the system.

  • Physical structure includes the network linking customers and suppliers and the placement of inventories and buffers within it, along with capacity constraints and time delays in production, order fulfillment, transportation, and so on.
  • Institutional structure includes the degree of horizontal and vertical coordination and competition among firms, the availability of information to decision makers in each organization, and the incentives faced by each decision maker.

Behavioral explanations also capture the physical and institutional structure of supply chains, but view decision makers as boundedly rational actors with imperfect mental models, actors who use heuristics to make ordering, production, capacity acquisition, pricing and other decisions (Morecroft 1985, Sterman 2000, Boudreau et al. 2003, Gino & Pisano 2008, Bendoly et al. 2010, Croson et al. 2013).

Amplifications and Phase Lag

Amplification and phase lag arise from the presence of basic physical structures including stocks of inventory and delays in adjusting production or deliveries to changes in incoming orders.

Oscillations

Oscillations, however, are not inevitable. They arise from boundedly rational, behavioral decision processes

The difference matters: if supply chain instability arises from operational factors and rational behavior, then policies must be directed at changing the physical and institutional structure of the system, including incentives.

If, however, instability arises from bounded rationality and emotional arousal such policies may not be sufficient.

 

Key People:

  • Jay W Forrester
  • John Sterman
  • Rogelio Oliva
  • Hau L Lee

 

Key Terms:

  • Bullwhip Effect
  • Oscillations
  • Amplifications
  • Negative Feedback Loop
  • Positive Feedback Loop
  • Phase Lag
  • Supply Chain Networks
  • Inventory Management
  • Production Smoothening
  • Beer Distribution Game
  • Industrial Dynamics
  • Operational and Institutional Structures
  • Behavioral causes
  • Instability
  • Variability
  • Uncertainty

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

Behavioral Causes of Demand Amplification in Supply Chains: “Satisficing” Policies with Limited Information Cues

Rogelio Oliva

Paulo Gonçalves

 

Click to access 1889_087eb4f1-0532-4a7d-a206-3d565efc02af_2005-OLIVA133.pdf

 

 

REDUCING THE IMPACT OF DEMAND PROCESS VARIABILITY WITHIN A MULTI-ECHELON SUPPLY CHAIN

Francisco Campuzano Bolarín1,Lorenzo Ros Mcdonnell1, Juan Martín García

2008

 

Click to access CAMPU215.pdf

 

 

The impact of order variance amplification/dampening on supply chain performance

 

Robert N. Boute, Stephen M. Disney, Marc R. Lambrecht and Benny Van Houdt

 

Click to access KBI_0603.pdf

 

 

Coping with Uncertainty: Reducing ”Bullwhip” Behaviour in Global Supply Chains

 

Rachel Mason-Jones, and Denis R. Towill

Click to access 24557527da7aa9da7de238fe7f4a463b2af6.pdf

 

 

Bullwhip in Supply Chains ~ Past, Present and Future

Steve Geary Stephen M Disney and Denis R Towill

 

Click to access 492a6e6ae1d0f186fe2570b7477428e8e467.pdf

 

 

Shrinking the Supply Chain Uncertainty Circle

R Mason-Jones

Click to access 19980901d.pdf

 

 

THE BULLWHIP EFFECT IN SUPPLY CHAIN Reflections after a Decade

Gürdal Ertek, Emre Eryılmaz

 

Click to access ertek_eryilmaz_cels2008.pdf

 

 

Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect

Hau L Lee; V Padmanabhan; Seugjin Whang

Management Science; Apr 1997; 43, 4;

Click to access f26117d56ab96aabe2d6cee4c390ab20ee18.pdf

 

 

 

THE SUPPLY CHAIN COMPLEXITY TRIANGE: UNCERTAINTY GENERATION IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN

 

Click to access 140687.pdf

 

 

The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chains

Hau L. Lee, V. Padmanabhan and Seungjin Whang

1997

http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-bullwhip-effect-in-supply-chains/

 

 

The Bullwhip Effect: Analysis of the Causes and Remedies

 

Jonathan Moll

Rene Bekker

 

Click to access werkstuk-moll_tcm243-354834.pdf

 

 

‘BULLWHIP’ AND ‘BACKLASH’ IN SUPPLY PIPELINES

Vinaya Shukla, Mohamed M Naim, Ehab A Yaseen

 

https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00525857/document

 

 

How human behaviour amplifies the bullwhip effect – a study based on the beer distribution game online

Joerg Nienhaus, Arne Ziegenbein*, Christoph Duijts

 

Click to access Bullwhip_Effect_Article.pdf

 

 

The Bullwhip Effect in Different Manufacturing Paradigm: An Analysis

Shamila Nabi KHAN1 Mohammad Ajmal KHAN2 Ramsha SOHAIL

 

Click to access 11.pdf.pdf

 

 

On replenishment rules, forecasting and the bullwhip effect in supply chains

Stephen M. Disney1 and Marc R. Lambrecht

 

Click to access Disney%20-%20On%20replenishment%20rules%20forecasting%20and%20the%20bullwhip%20effect%20in%20supply%20chains%20pre%20print.pdf

 

 

Causes and Remedies of Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain

Sivakumar Balasubramanian Larry Whitman Kartik Ramachandran Ravindra Sheelavant

 

Click to access 2001IERCBullwhip.pdf

 

 

Booms, Busts, and Beer: Understanding the Dynamics of Supply Chains

John Sterman

 

Click to access Sterman%20Beh%20Ops%20Handbook%20Chapter%20140210.pdf

 

 

Modeling and Measuring the Bullwhip Effect

Li Chen and Hau L. Lee

2015

Click to access Chen_Lee_Bullwhip_2015.pdf

 

 

Operational and Behavioral Causes of Supply Chain Instability

John D. Sterman

Click to access 2a3118c5c7d2bd475335549b0b943009d66c.pdf

 

 

Order Stability in Supply Chains: Coordination Risk and the Role of Coordination Stock

Rachel Croson, Karen Donohue, Elena Katok, and John Sterman

Click to access Order%20Stability%20in%20SCs050212.pdf

Click to access Order_Stability_070505.pdf

 

 

SUPPLY CHAIN DYNAMICS, THE “BEER DISTRIBUTION GAME” AND MISPERCEPTIONS IN DYNAMIC DECISION MAKING

John D. Sterman

Click to access E6-63-01-02.pdf

 

 

When Do Minor Shortages Inflate To Great Bubbles?

Paulo Gonçalves

2002

 

Click to access Gonca1.pdf

 

 

A new technology paradigm for collaboration in the supply chain

Branko Pecar and Barry Davies

Click to access c522d454d1dc036a22db29b2dee005dbc44e.pdf

 

 

MANAGERIAL INSIGHTS ON THE IMPACT OF FORECASTING AND INFORMATION ON VARIABILITY IN A SUPPLY CHAIN

Frank Chent, Zvi Drezner2 , Jennifer K. Ryan3 and David Simchi-Levi

 

Click to access 4%20chen.pdf

 

 

Supply and Production Networks: From the Bullwhip Effect to Business Cycles

Dirk Helbing Stefan Laemmer

2004

 

Click to access 04-12-033.pdf

 

 

Inventory dynamics and the bullwhip effect : studies in supply chain performance

Udenio, M.

2014

 

Click to access 776508.pdf

 

 

RECENT WORK ON BUSINES CYCLES IN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: REVIEW OF THEORIES AND EVIDENCE

VictorZarnowitz

1984

 

Click to access w1503.pdf

 

 

THEORY AND HISTORY BEHIND BUSINESS CYCLES:ARE THE 1990S

THE ONSET OF A GOLDEN AGE?

 

Victor Zarnowitz

WorkingPaper7010 htp:/w.nber.org/papers/w7010

1999

 

Click to access w7010.pdf

 

 

The Beginning of System Dynamics

Jay W. Forrester

 

Click to access D-4165-1.pdf

 

 

Profiles in Operations Research: Jay Wright Forrester

David C. Lane John D. Sterman

 

Click to access jwf-profile-in-op.pdf

 

 

SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT: RESEARCH REVIEW

2000

 

Click to access 54fe11ea0aaa47f4c8e08959be2ef52d50a6.pdf

 

 

INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS-AFTER THE FIRST DECADE

JAY W. FORRESTER

 

Click to access Forrester68.pdf

 

 

Industrial Dynamics

Jay W Forrester

1961

 

 

Business Dynamics

John Sterman

2000