The Strength of Weak Ties

The Strength of Weak Ties

Key Terms

  • Loosly Coupled Systems
  • Weak Ties
  • Strong Ties
  • Connections
  • Networks
  • Diffusion
  • Lockdown
  • Isolation
  • Quarantine
  • Separation
  • Preferences
  • Epidemiology
  • Tightly Coupled Systems
  • Slack
  • Buffer
  • Communities in Networks
  • Ties
  • Borders
  • Boundaries
  • Brokers
  • Boundary Spanners
  • Cooperation
  • Competition
  • Divisions
  • Risks
  • Contagion
  • Interconnectedness
  • Clusters

The Strength of Weak Ties is quite a relevant topic currently due to focus on

  • Diffusion of Innovation
  • Spread of Diseases
  • Global Supply Chains
  • Community Formation in Networks
  • Communication in Networks
  • Relations between Groups
  • Resilience
  • Risks and Fragility
  • Contagion and Spillovers

The Strength of Weak Ties

Mark Granovetter

The Strength of Weak Ties – Continued

My Related Posts

Boundaries and Networks

Contagion in Financial (Balance sheets) Networks

Boundaries and Relational Sociology

Boundaries and Distinctions

Boundary Spanning in Multinational and Transnational Corporations

FDI vs Outsourcing: Extending Boundaries or Extending Network Chains of Firms

Global Flow of Funds: Statistical Data Matrix across National Boundaries

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Micro Motives, Macro Behavior: Agent Based Modeling in Economics

Multiplex Financial Networks

Multilevel Approach to Research in Organizations

On Holons and Holarchy

Networks and Hierarchies

Key Sources of Research

The Strength of Weak Ties

Mark Gronovetter

The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 78, No. 6. (May, 1973), pp. 1360-1380

Click to access granovetterTies.pdf

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/The-Strength-of-Weak-Ties-Granovetter/c9aece346139711b8c65c618da99cdbecb162575

THE STRENGTH IN WEAK TIES

WILLIAM T. LIU,  ROBERT W. DUFF

Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 36, Issue 3, FALL 1972, Pages 361–366, https://doi.org/10.1086/268018

Published: 01 January 1972

https://academic.oup.com/poq/article-abstract/36/3/361/1875803

The Future of Weak Ties

Aral, Sinan. “The Future of Weak Ties.”

American Journal of Sociology 121, no. 6 (May 2016): 1931–1939.

MIT

Attention on Weak Ties in Social and Communication Networks

Lilian Weng, Ma ́rton Karsai, Nicola Perra, Filippo Menczer and Alessandro Flammini

2017

Algebraic Analysis of Social Networks: Models, Methods and Applications Using R

By J. Antonio R. Ostoic

A test of structural features of granovetter’s strength of weak ties theory

Noah Friedkin

Department of Education, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, U.S.A.

Social Networks
Volume 2, Issue 4, 1980, Pages 411-422

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0378873380900064

Social network Analysis
Lecture 5–Strength of weak ties paradox

Donglei Du

Faculty of Business Administration, University of New Brunswick, NB Canada Fredericton E3B 9Y2 (ddu@unb.ca)

Click to access Lec5_weak_tie_handout.pdf

THE STRENGTH OF WEAK TIES: A NETWORK THEORY REVISITED

Mark Granovetter

STATE UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK, STONY BROOK

Sociological Theory, Vol. 1 (1983), pp. 201-233
John Wiley & Sons
http://www.jstor.org/stable/202051 .

Social Interactions and Well-Being: The Surprising Power of Weak Ties

Gillian M. Sandstrom, Elizabeth W. Dunn
First Published April 25, 2014
https://doi.org/10.1177/0146167214529799

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167214529799

Information Flow Through Strong and Weak Ties in Intraorganizational Social Networks

Noah E Friedkin

UCSB

Social Networks 3, 1982

Click to access SNIflow.PDF

Time varying networks and the weakness of strong ties

Márton KarsaiNicola PerraAlessandro Vespignani

https://arxiv.org/abs/1303.5966

https://www.technologyreview.com/2013/03/28/83867/how-strong-social-ties-hinder-the-spread-of-rumours/

Strong and Weak Ties

Web Science (VU) (707.000)

Elisabeth Lex
KTI, TU Graz
April 20, 2015

Click to access strongweakties.pdf

Communication boundaries in networks

Trusina, Ala 

Rosvall, Martin 

Umeå University, Faculty of Science and Technology, Department of Physics.

Sneppen, Kim 

2005 (English)

In: Physical Review Letters, ISSN 0031-9007, E-ISSN 1079-7114, Vol. 94, no 23, p. 238701-

System Archetypes: Stories that Repeat

System Archetypes: Stories that Repeat

Source: Archetypes

Archetypes in stories express patterns.

While plots may be “archetypal” when they exhibit certain forms, in this post we are concerned with character archetypes.

In modern storytelling, to consider them as archetypes might suggest a bit of a corset, perhaps even a straightjacket for the characters. For today’s author, to present a character as an archetype does not seem conducive to achieving psychological verisimilitude.

But an archetype is not the same as a stereotype. An advisor or mentor does not need to be a wise old man like Obi-Wan Kenobi. And an antagonist does not need to be a baddy.

Consider archetypes as powers within a story. Like planets in a solar system, they have gravity and they therefore exert force as they move.

Archetypes denote certain general roles or functions for characters within the system of the story. There is ample room for variation within each role or function. Boundaries between one archetype and another may be fuzzy. And it is possible for one character to stand for more than one archetype.

Archetypes Through The Ages

Certain archetypes are ancient and have been around as long as stories have been told. Others may have a Christian background. Some are modern interpretations of ancient archetypes seen in the light of dramaturgical principles.

We may distinguish between three sorts of archetypes.

  • Ancient – archetypes that we find in the very oldest stories, and in very modern ones
  • Classical – archetypes that we find in works of literature of the past two thousand years
  • Role-based – modern variants that consider the dramaturgical function of characters

This categorisation has overlaps. The ancient, original archetypes, such as the Mentor, are of course also classical. And certain role-based archetypes, such as the Protagonist, may correspond to ancient ones, such as the Prince.

The Protagonist is sometimes called the Hero, a word which in terms of ancient archetypes might refer to a number of archetypes, for instance Warrior (Achilles) or Trickster (Odysseus). In the modern sense of role-based archetypes, this is the person (or rabbit, or robot, or whatever) the story is primarily about, the one whose travails the recipient, the audience or reader, follows through to the end of the story.

The Protagonist’s opposing power is the antagonism, which may be personified in an individual Antagonist. It helps to remember that in terms of function within the story, an antagonist does not necessarily have to be a villain, but is a counterforce to the protagonist (for an ancient example, consider Agamemnon and Achilles in the Iliad).

The antagonistic force is sometimes referred to as the “Shadow”. This can be misleading, since really almost every archetype has its own shadow side. A Patriarch may be presented as benevolent or “light”, or as tyrannical and “dark”. Indeed, in one story the character (or characters) representing such an archetype might show signs of both.

Characters Wearing Hats

Several of the roles or functions that you find in all sorts of stories – such as the Mentor, the Ally, the Patriarch – do not always have to be riveted to one specific character. For instance, it is quite possible that one character may have the Mentor hat on at one point in the story, and the Ally hat at another.

The point is that such forces or functions tend to be present in stories, and characters express these forces through their role or function within the story at each point in the narrative.

There is even an archetype for a character that explicitly changes roles in the story, where it becomes part of that character’s function to jump role at one or more points along the story. That is a Shapechanger.

Some archetypes are gender specific. The Patriarch/Father/King stands for different values from the Matriarch/Mother/Queen. For other archetypes, whether the character is male or female is not the point. A Shapechanger or a Trickster is defined by what the character does in the story.

So archetypes are really little more than signposts. Assigning a character an archetype is not to pressure that character into behaving in a certain way. Calling a character an archetype is merely to give us a pointer to that character’s role and function in the story. Characters that can be labelled as several archetypes tend to be multi-facetted. Hamlet, for instance, fulfils the criteria for several archetypes. So thinking about characters in terms of which archetypal roles they may play is actually a way of making the characters richer, giving them more depth, making them appear psychologically real and ultimately human.

System archetypes are the pattern which are recurrent.

Key Terms

  • Systems
  • System Archetypes
  • Feedback
  • Causal Loops
  • Delays
  • Leveraged Networks
  • The Systems Thinker
  • Daniel H Kim
  • Peter Senge
  • Barry Richmond
  • STELLA
  • VENSIM
  • ITHINK
  • Ventana Systems
  • Isee Systems

WHAT IS A SYSTEMS ARCHETYPE?

Source: Systems Archetype Basics : From Story to Structure

Without having to climb beanstalks or push anyone into an oven, children learn lessons from fairy tales about how to hide from powerful, cruel beings, build solid dwellings, and be respectful of old people. Literary themes also show us the hero’s journey, the trials of hard work, the outcomes of faithful love and misguided passion, and the ennui of a materialistic life. In these examples from literature, the term archetype signifies a recurring, generic character, symbol, or storyline. In systems thinking, the term has a very similar meaning. It refers to recurring, generic systemic structures that are found in many kinds of organizations, under many circumstances, and at different levels or scales, from internal personal dynamics to global international relations.

Captured in the stories, structures, and behavior over time of the archetypes are similar teachings about competition, addiction, the perils of quick fixes, and the high flyer’s downfall. And as we do with stories and fairy tales, we can use the archetypes to explore generic problems and hone our awareness of the organizational dramas unfolding around us. We can even use archetypes to sharpen our ability to anticipate difficulties, communicate about them with our colleagues, and find ways to address them together.

The systems archetypes, as a group, make up one of the 10 current categories of systems thinking tools. (See Appendix B for a complete list of these tools.) Each archetype features a storyline with a distinctive theme, a particular pattern of behavior over time that can be graphed, and a unique systemic structure that can be depicted in a causal loop diagram. The value of archetypes is that we can study them apart from a specific story, problem, or organizational situation and take away generic, transferable learnings that we can then apply to many situations in our own lives.

WHERE DID ARCHETYPES COME FROM?

In the 1960s and 1970s, Jay Forrester, Dennis Meadows, Donella Meadows, and other pioneers of systems thinking observed several recurring systemic structures. In the 1980s, Michael Goodman, Charles Kiefer, Jenny Kemeny, and Peter Senge built on that work, in part with the help of notes developed by John Sterman, by describing, diagramming, and cataloguing these generic systemic structures as systems templates. When Peter Senge authored The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, he referred to those structures as systems archetypes. Since then, the notion of systems archetypes has become quite popularized, and systems thinking practitioners have continued to teach, apply, and write about these recurring generic structures as well as investigate and test the potential of identifying new ones.

List of Key System Archetypes

  • Drifting Goals
  • Escalation
  • Fixes that Fail
  • Growth and Underinvestment
  • Limits to Success
  • Shifting the Burden/Addiction
  • Success to the Successful
  • Tragedy of the Commons

Source: Systems Thinking Tools: A User’s Reference Guide

Source: SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I

Source: Systems Thinking Tools: A User’s Reference Guide

Source: SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I

System Archetypes and Their Storylines

Source: SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES AND THEIR APPLICATION

Archetypes and their Applications

Source: SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES AND THEIR APPLICATION

Source: Systems Archetype Basics : From Story to Structure

Source: Systems Archetype Basics : From Story to Structure

Source: Systems Archetype Basics : From Story to Structure

Source: Systems Archetype Basics : From Story to Structure

Growth Archetypes

Source: A theory of spatial system archetypes

➤ A Glossary of Systems Thinking Tools

Source: Systems Archetype Basics : From Story to Structure

Systems thinking can serve as a language for communicating about complexity and interdependencies. To be fully conversant in any language, you must gain some mastery of the vocabulary, especially the phrases and idioms unique to that language. This glossary lists many terms that may come in handy when you’re faced with a systems problem.

Accumulator 

Anything that builds up or dwindles; for example, water in a bathtub, savings in a bank account, inventory in a warehouse. In modeling software, a stock is often used as a generic symbol for accumulators. Also known as Stock or Level.

Balancing Process/Loop 

Combined with reinforcing loops, balancing processes form the building blocks of dynamic systems. Balancing processes seek equilibrium: They try to bring things to a desired state and keep them there. They also limit and constrain change generated by reinforcing processes. A balancing loop in a causal loop diagram depicts a balancing process.

Balancing Process with Delay 

A commonly occurring structure. When a bal- ancing process has a long delay, the usual response is to overcorrect. Over- correction leads to wild swings in behavior. Example: real estate cycles.

Behavior Over Time (BOT) Graph 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. BOT graphs capture the history or trend of one or more variables over time. By sketching several variables on one graph, you can gain an explicit understanding of how they interact over time. Also called Reference Mode.

Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. Causal loop diagrams capture how variables in a system are interrelated. A CLD takes the form of a closed loop that depicts cause-and-effect linkages.

Drifting Goals 

A systems archetype. In a “Drifting Goals” scenario, a gradual downward slide in performance goals goes unnoticed, threatening the long- term future of the system or organization. Example: lengthening delivery delays.

Escalation 

A systems archetype. In the “Escalation” archetype, two parties compete for superiority in an arena. As one party’s actions put it ahead, the other party “retaliates” by increasing its actions. The result is a continual ratcheting up of activity on both sides. Examples: price battles, the Cold War.

Feedback 

The return of information about the status of a process. Example: annual performance reviews return information to an employee about the quality of his or her work.

Fixes That Fail 

A systems archetype. In a “Fixes That Fail” situation, a fix is applied to a problem and has immediate positive results. However, the fix also has unforeseen long-term consequences that eventually worsen the problem. Also known as “Fixes That Backfire.”

Flow 

The amount of change something undergoes during a particular unit of time. Example: the amount of water that flows out of a bathtub each minute, or the amount of interest earned in a savings account each month. Also called a Rate.

Generic Structures 

Structures that can be generalized across many different settings because the underlying relationships are fundamentally the same. Systems archetypes are a class of generic structures.

Graphical Function Diagram (GFD) 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. GFDs show how one variable, such as delivery delays, interacts with another, such as sales, by plotting the relationship between the two over the entire range of relevant values. The resulting diagram is a concise hypothesis of how the two variables interrelate. Also called Table Function.

Growth and Underinvestment 

A systems archetype. In this situation, resource investments in a growing area are not made, owing to short-term pressures. As growth begins to stall because of lack of resources, there is less incentive for adding capacity, and growth slows even further.

Learning Laboratory 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. A learning lab- oratory embeds a management flight simulator in a learning environment. Groups of managers use a combination of systems thinking tools to explore the dynamics of a particular system and inquire into their own understand- ing of that system. Learning labs serve as a manager’s practice field.

Level 

See Accumulator.

Leverage Point 

An area where small change can yield large improvements in a system.

Limits to Success 

A systems archetype. In a “Limits to Success” scenario, a company or product line grows rapidly at first, but eventually begins to slow or even decline. The reason is that the system has hit some limit— capacity constraints, resource limits, market saturation, etc.—that is inhibiting further growth. Also called “Limits to Growth.”

Management Flight Simulator (MFS) 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. Similar to a pilot’s flight simulator, an MFS allows managers to test the outcome of different policies and decisions without “crashing and burning” real companies. An MFS is based on a system dynamics computer model that has been changed into an interactive decision-making simulator through the use of a user interface.

Policy Structure Diagram 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. Policy structure diagrams are used to create a conceptual “map” of the decision- making process that is embedded in an organization. It highlights the fac- tors that are weighed at each decision point.

Rate 

See Flow.

Reference Mode 

See Behavior Over Time Graph.

Reinforcing Process/Loop 

Along with balancing loops, reinforcing loops form the building blocks of dynamic systems. Reinforcing processes com- pound change in one direction with even more change in that same direc- tion. As such, they generate both growth and collapse. A reinforcing loop in a causal loop diagram depicts a reinforcing process. Also known as vicious cycles or virtuous cycles.

Shifting the Burden 

A systems archetype. In a “Shifting the Burden” situa- tion, a short-term solution is tried that successfully solves an ongoing prob- lem. As the solution is used over and over again, it takes attention away from more fundamental, enduring solutions. Over time, the ability to apply a fundamental solution may decrease, resulting in more and more reliance on the symptomatic solution. Examples: drug and alcohol dependency.

Shifting the Burden to the Intervener 

A special case of the “Shifting the Burden” systems archetype that occurs when an intervener is brought in to help solve an ongoing problem. Over time, as the intervener successfully handles the problem, the people within the system become less capable of solving the problem themselves. They become even more dependent on the intervener. Example: ongoing use of outside consultants.

Simulation Model 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. A computer model that lets you map the relationships that are important to a problem or an issue and then simulate the interaction of those variables over time.

Stock 

See Accumulator.

Structural Diagram 

Draws out the accumulators and flows in a system, giving an overview of the major structural elements that produce the system’s behavior. Also called flow diagram or accumulator/flow diagram.

Structure-Behavior Pair 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. A structure- behavior pair consists of a structural representation of a business issue, using accumulators and flows, and the corresponding behavior over time (BOT) graph for the issue being studied.

Structure 

The manner in which a system’s elements are organized or interre- lated. The structure of an organization, for example, could include not only the organizational chart but also incentive systems, information flows, and interpersonal interactions.

Success to the Successful 

A systems archetype. In a “Success to the Success- ful” situation, two activities compete for a common but limited resource. The activity that is initially more successful is consistently given more resources, allowing it to succeed even more. At the same time, the activity that is initially less successful becomes starved for resources and eventually dies out. Example: the QWERTY layout of typewriter keyboards.

System Dynamics 

A field of study that includes a methodology for constructing computer simulation models to achieve better understanding of social and corporate systems. It draws on organizational studies, behavioral decision theory, and engineering to provide a theoretical and empirical base for structuring the relationships in complex systems.

System 

A group of interacting, interrelated, or interdependent elements form- ing a complex whole. Almost always defined with respect to a specific pur- pose within a larger system. Example: An R&D department is a system that has a purpose in the context of the larger organization.

Systems Archetypes 

One of the 10 tools of systems thinking. Systems archetypes are the “classic stories” in systems thinking—common patterns and structures that occur repeatedly in different settings.

Systems Thinking 

A school of thought that focuses on recognizing the inter- connections between the parts of a system and synthesizing them into a unified view of the whole.

Table Function 

See Graphical Function Diagram.

Template 

A tool used to identify systems archetypes. To use a template, you fill in the blank variables in causal loop diagrams.

Tragedy of the Commons 

A systems archetype. In a “Tragedy of the Commons” scenario, a shared resource becomes overburdened as each person in the system uses more and more of the resource for individual gain. Eventually, the resource dwindles or is wiped out, resulting in lower gains for everyone involved. Example: the Greenhouse Effect.

The above glossary is a compilation of definitions from many sources, including:

  • Innovation Associates’ and GKA’s Introduction to Systems Thinking coursebooks
  • The Fifth Discipline: The Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, by Peter Senge
  • High Performance Systems’ Academic User’s Guide to STELLA
  • The American Heritage Dictionary and The Random House Dictionary.

Systems Thinking Tools

Source: THE “THINKING” IN SYSTEMS THINKING: HOW CAN WE MAKE IT EASIER TO MASTER?

Source: Systems Thinking Tools: A User’s Reference Guide

Source: Systems Thinking Tools: A User’s Reference Guide

Systems Thinking Publications

Source: SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I

The Systems Thinker

Source: SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES I

The Language of Links and Loops

Source: System Archetypes I

My Releated Posts

Jay W. Forrester and System Dynamics

Feedback Thought in Economics and Finance

Stock Flow Consistent Models for Ecological Economics

What are Problem Structuring Methods?

Law of Dependent Origination

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

Systems and Organizational Cybernetics

Stock Flow Consistent Input Output Models (SFCIO)

Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling

Myth of Invariance: Sound, Music, and Recurrent Events and Structures

Systems Biology: Biological Networks, Network Motifs, Switches and Oscillators

Key Sources of Research

CAUSAL LOOP CONSTRUCTION: THE BASICS

COLLEEN LANNON

Systems Archetype Basics

From Story to Structure

Daniel H. Kim
Virginia Anderson

Introduction to Systems Thinking

Daniel H. Kim

Systems Archetypes I: Diagnosing Systemic Issues and Designing High-Leverage Interventions

The System Thinker

Pegasus Communications

Systems Archetypes II: Using Systems Archetypes to Take Effective Action

The System Thinker

Pegasus Communications

Systems Archetypes III: Understanding Patterns of Behavior and Delay

by Daniel H. Kim
© 2000 by Pegasus Communications, Inc.
First edition.

First printing March 2000

Systems Thinking Tools: A User’s Reference Guide

DANIEL H. KIM

THE “THINKING” IN SYSTEMS THINKING: HOW CAN WE MAKE IT EASIER TO MASTER?

BY

BARRY RICHMOND

THE THINKING IN SYSTEMS THINKING: EIGHT CRITICAL SKILLS

BY BARRY RICHMOND

Click to access Vol.%2021%20No.%203,%20abr.%202010.pdf

Systems Thinking Basics: From Concepts to Causal Loops

Book by Virginia Anderson

MOVING FROM KNOWER TO LEARNER

BRIAN HINKEN

Tools for Systems Thinkers: The 12 Recurring Systems Archetypes

Disruptive Design

The System Archetypes 

By William Braun

SYSTEMS ARCHETYPES AND THEIR APPLICATION

By Jorge Taborga

Saybrook Forum, Human Experience – Monday, August 15, 2011

https://www.saybrook.edu/unbound/systems-archetypes/

Beyond the Tip of the Iceberg: Using Systems Archetypes to Understand Common and Recurring Issues in Sports Coaching

Scott McLean1*Gemma J. M. Read1Adam Hulme1Karl Dodd1Adam D. Gorman2Colin Solomon1,3 and Paul M. Salmon1

  • 1Centre for Human Factors and Sociotechnical Systems, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, QLD, Australia
  • 2School of Exercise and Nutrition Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
  • 3School of Health and Sports Sciences, University of the Sunshine Coast, Sippy Downs, QLD, Australia

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspor.2019.00049/full

Archetypes

Interaction Structures of the Universe

https://www.systems-thinking.org/arch/arch.htm

Systems: Schools of Thought and Traditions of Practice

W. Barnett Pearce
Fielding Graduate University
Public Dialogue Consortium
Pearce Associates
CMM Institute for Personal and Social Evolution

On systems thinking in logistics management – A critical perspective

Magnus Lindskog

June 2012

Department of Science and Technology Linköpings universitet, SE-581 83 Linköping, Sweden

Applying resilience thinking

Seven principles for building resilience in social-ecological systems

http://www.stockholmresilience.su.se

An Introduction to Systems Thinking

by Barry Richmond

Chapter 1 Featuring Stella

ISBN 0-9704921-1-1

isee systems
Phone: (603) 643.9636 http://www.iseesystems.com

Systems Thinking: A Review and Bibliometric Analysis 

Niamat Ullah Ibne Hossain , Vidanelage L. Dayarathna, Morteza Nagahi and Raed Jaradat *

Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State, MS 39762, USA; ni78@msstate.edu (N.U.I.H.); vld66@msstate.edu (V.L.D.); mn852@msstate.edu (M.N.)
Correspondence: jaradat@ise.msstate.edu

SYSTEMIC THINKING FOR POLICY MAKING – THE POTENTIAL OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS FOR ADDRESSING GLOBAL POLICY CHALLENGES IN THE 21st CENTURY

OECD

17-18 September 2019, OECD Conference Centre

Edited by Gabriela Ramos, William Hynes, Jan-Marco Müller and Martin Lees

SYSTEMS THINKING

A Dissertation
Presented to the Faculty of the Graduate School
of Cornell University
in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

by
Derek Anthony Cabrera May 2006

https://ecommons.cornell.edu/bitstream/handle/1813/2860/DerekCabreraDissertation.pdf;sequence=1

Systems thinking: critical thinking skills for the 1990s and beyond

Barry Richmond

System Dynamics Review Vol. 9, no. 2 (Summer 1993):113-133

System Dynamics/Systems Thinking: Let’s Just Get On With It

by
Barry Richmond

Delivered at the 1994 International Systems Dynamics Conference in Sterling, Scotland

Thinking in Systems

Donella H. Meadows

TEACHING SYSTEMIC THINKING: EDUCATING THE NEXT GENERATION OF BUSINESS LEADERS

BY J. BRIAN ATWATER, VIJAY KANNAN, AND ALAN A. STEPHENS

APPLYING SYSTEM DYNAMICS TO PUBLIC POLICY: THE LEGACY OF BARRY RICHMOND

BY STEVE PETERSON

Systems Thinking Resources

Using generic system archetypes to support thinking and modelling

Eric Wolstenholme

System Dynamics Review Volume 20 Number 4 Winter 2004

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.390.6202&rep=rep1&type=pdf#/

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Using-generic-system-archetypes-to-support-thinking-Wolstenholme/daed8d5c3a1081addf196543e9fa4ca228c42185

System Archetypes as Diagnostic Tools

Daniel H Kim

Using System Archetypes to Identify Failure Patterns in Acquisition

Diane Gibson Linda Levine, PhD William E. Novak
May 2, 2006

An Approach for the Development of Complex Systems Archetypes

Walter Lee Akers
Old Dominion University, akers.walt@gmail.com

(2015). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, Engineering Management & Systems Engineering, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/6xmx-r674
https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/emse_etds/18

Thinking systemically about ecological interventions: what do system archetypes teach us?

Lauren M. HallettRichard J. Hobbs

First published: 11 June 2020

 https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.13220

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rec.13220

Use of System Archetypes to Accelerate, Advance, and Deepen Systems Thinking Skills of Nurses

Daniel J Pesut PhD RN FAAN
Professor of Nursing Population Health and Systems Cooperative Unit Director of the Katharine Densford International Center for Nursing Leadership University of Minnesota School of Nursing
308 Harvard St. SE

MPLS MN 55455 USA

Judith Pechacek, DNP, RN, CENP University of Minnesota, School of Nursing

Clinical Associate Professor
Director, Doctor of Nursing Practice (DNP) Program 308 Harvard St. SE

MPLS MN 55455 USA

https://sigma.nursingrepository.org/bitstream/handle/10755/18454/Pesut_94821_A10.pdf?sequence=1

System Archetypes

System Innovation

Youtube

How to Guides

The System Thinker

https://thesystemsthinker.com/category/how-to-guides/

Using the Archetypes

System Archetypes at a Glance

Palette of System Thinking Tools

SYSTEMS ARCHETYPE BASICS: FROM STORY TO STRUCTURE

A theory of spatial system archetypes

Todd K. BenDor* and Nikhil Kaza

System Dynamics Review

System Dynamics Review vol 28, No 2 (April-June 2012): 109–130

Archetypes

What are Problem Structuring Methods?

What are Problem Structuring Methods?

Source: PROBLEM STRUCTURING IN PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

Problem structuring methods provide a methodological complement to theories of policy design. Arguably, structuring a problem is a prerequisite of designing solutions for that problem.4 In this context, problem structuring methods are metamethods. They are “about” and “come before” processes of policy design and other forms of problem solving.

Source: Strategic Development: Methods and Models

Key Terms

  • PSM
  • Soft OR
  • Hard OR
  • Unstructured Problems
  • Systems
  • System Sciences
  • SODA Strategic Options Development and Analysis
  • SSM Soft Systems Methodology
  • SCA Strategic Choice Approach
  • Robustness Analysis
  • Drama Theory
  • Interactive Planning
  • Scenario Planning
  • Critical Systems Heuristics
  • SWOT
  • Strategic Assumption Surfacing and Testing
  • Viable Systems Model VSM
  • System Dynamics
  • Decision Conferencing
  • Multi-methodology
  • John Mingers
  • Jonathan Rosenhead
  • John Morecroft
  • MC Jackson
  • Operational Research
  • Problem Structuring Methods PSM
  • Stafford Beer
  • Robert Dyson
  • Jay Forrester
  • Russell Ackoff
  • Robert Flood
  • Peter Checkland
  • Group Model Building
  • Behaviour Operational Research
  • Community Operations Research
  • Ill-structured versus Well-structured Problems
  • Wicked Versus Tame Problems
  • Ill-Defined versus Well-Defined Problems
  • Nigel Howard
  • Metagames
  • Hypergames

Problem Structuring Methods

Source: Past, present and future of problem structuring methods

The problematic situations for which PSMs aim to provide analytic assistance are characterized by

  • Multiple actors,
  • Differing perspectives, 
  • Partially conflicting interests,  
  • Significant intangibles,
  • Perplexing uncertainties.

The relative salience of these factors will differ between situations (and different methods are selective in the emphasis given to them). However, in all cases there is a meta-characteristic, that of complexity, arising out of the need to comprehend a tangle of issues without being able to start from a presumed consensual formulation. For an introduction to PSMs, see Rosenhead and Mingers, 2001

Source: Problem structuring methods in action

Strategic options development and analysis (SODA) is a general problem identification method that uses cognitive mapping as a modelling device for eliciting and recording individuals’ views of a problem situation. The merged individual cognitive maps (or a joint map developed within a workshop session) provide the framework for group discussions, and a facilitator guides participants towards commitment to a portfolio of actions.

Soft systems methodology (SSM) is a general method for system redesign. Participants build ideal-type conceptual models (CMs), one for each relevant world view. They compare them with perceptions of the existing system in order to generate debate about what changes are culturally feasible and systemically desirable. 

Strategic choice approach (SCA) is a planning approach centered on managing uncertainty in strategic situations. Facilitators assist participants to model the interconnectedness of decision areas. Interactive comparison of alternative decision schemes helps them to bring key uncertainties to the surface. On this basis the group identifies priority areas for partial commitment, and designs explorations and contingency plans.

Robustness analysis is an approach that focuses on maintaining useful flexibility under uncertainty. In an interactive process, participants and analysts assess both the compatibility of alternative initial commitments with possible future configurations of the system being planned for, and the performance of each configuration in feasible future environments. This enables them to compare the flexibility maintained by alternative initial commitments. 

Drama theory draws on two earlier approaches, meta games and hyper games. It is an interactive method of analysing co-operation and conflict among multiple actors. A model is built from perceptions of the options available to the various actors, and how they are rated. Drama theory looks for the “dilemmas” presented to the actors within this model of the situation. Each dilemma is a change point, tending to cause an actor to feel specific emotions and to produce rational arguments by which the model itself is redefined. When and only when such successive redefinitions have eliminated all dilemmas is the actors’ joint problem fully resolved. Analysts commonly work with one of the parties, helping it to be more effective in the rational-emotional process of dramatic resolution. (Descriptions based substantially on Rosenhead, 1996.)

Given the ill-defined location of the PSM/non- PSM boundary, there are a number of other methods with some currency that have at least certain family resemblances. These include critical systems heuristics (CSH) (Ulrich, 2000), interactive planning (Ackoff, 1981), and strategic assumption surfacing and testing (Mason and Mitroff, 1981). Other related methods which feature in this special issue are SWOT (Weihrich, 1998), scenario planning (Schoemaker, 1998), and the socio-technical systems approach (Trist and Murray, 1993). Those which are particularly close to the spirit of PSMs in at least some of their modes of use, and therefore thought to merit inclusion in Rosenhead and Mingers (2001), are the following:

Viable systems model (VSM) is a generic model of a viable organization based on cybernetic principles. It specifies five notional systems that should exist within an organization in some form––operations, co-ordination, control, intelligence, and policy, together with the appropriate control and communicational relationships. Although it was developed with a prescriptive intent, it can also be used as part of a debate about problems of organizational design and redesign (Harnden, 1990). 

System dynamics(SD) is a way of modelling peoples’ perceptions of real-world systems based especially on causal relationships and feedback. It was developed as a traditional simulation tool but can be used, especially in combination with influence diagrams (causal–loop diagrams), as a way of facilitating group discussion (Lane, 2000; Vennix, 1996).

Decision conferencing is a variant of the more widely known “decision analysis”. Like the latter, it builds models to support choice between decision alternatives in cases where the consequences may be multidimensional; and where there may be uncertainty about future events which affect those consequences. What distinguishes decision conferencing is that it operates in workshop mode, with one or more facilitators eliciting from the group of participants both the structure of the model, and the probabilities and utilities to be included in it. The aim is cast, not as the identification of an objectively best solution, but as the achievement of shared understanding, the development of a sense of common purpose, and the generation of a commitment to action (Phillips, 1989; Watson and Buede, 1987).

There are a number of texts which present a different selection of “softer” methods than do Rosenhead and Mingers. These include Flood and Jackson (1991), who concentrate on systems-based methods, Dyson and O’Brien (1998) who consider a range of hard and soft approaches in the area of strategy formulation; and Sorensen and Vidal (1999) who make a wide range of methods accessible to a Scandinavian readership. There is clearly an extensive repertoire of methods available. In fact it is common to combine together a number of PSMs, or PSMs together with more traditional methods, in a single intervention––a practice known as multimethodology (Mingers and Gill, 1997). So the range of methodological choice is wider even than a simple listing of methods might suggest.

Source: Are project managers ready for the 21th challenges? A review of problem structuring methods for decision support

Benefits of Problem Structuring Methods

Source: Are project managers ready for the 21th challenges? A review of problem structuring methods for decision support

My Related Posts

Systems and Organizational Cybernetics

Micro Motives, Macro Behavior: Agent Based Modeling in Economics

Production and Distribution Planning : Strategic, Global, and Integrated

Drama Theory: Choices, Conflicts and Dilemmas

Drama Theory: Acting Strategically

Quantitative Models for Closed Loop Supply Chain and Reverse Logistics

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

Stock Flow Consistent Input Output Models (SFCIO)

Stock Flow Consistent Models for Ecological Economics

Gantt Chart Simulation for Stock Flow Consistent Production Schedules

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

HP’s Megatrends

Global Flow of Funds: Statistical Data Matrix across National Boundaries

Credit Chains and Production Networks

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) / Financial Supply Chain Management (F-SCM)

Financial Social Accounting Matrix

Morris Copeland and Flow of Funds accounts

Systems Biology: Biological Networks, Network Motifs, Switches and Oscillators

Oscillations and Amplifications in Demand-Supply Network Chains

Portfolio Planning Models for Corporate Strategic Planning

Cyber-Semiotics: Why Information is not enough

Truth, Beauty, and Goodness: Integral Theory of Ken Wilber

Key Sources of Research

Understanding behaviour in problem structuring methods interventions with activity theory.

White, L., Burger, K., & Yearworth, M. (2016).

European Journal of Operational Research, 249(3), 983-1004. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.07.044

https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/publications/understanding-behaviour-in-problem-structuring-methods-interventi

“Is Value Focused Thinking a Problem Structuring Method or Soft OR or what?”

Keisler, Jeffrey,

(2012). 

Management Science and Information Systems Faculty Publication Series. Paper 42.


http://scholarworks.umb.edu/msis_faculty_pubs/42

Rational Analysis for a Problematic World Revisited: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty and Conflict

John Mingers, Jonathan Rosenhead

2001 Book Second ed.

The characteristics of problem structuring methods: A literature review

https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/the-characteristics-of-problem-structuring-methods-a-literature-review(e4bbf605-6df1-4a33-853c-2bc17dc18a8e).html

Problem structuring methods in action

John Mingers a,*, Jonathan Rosenhead b

a Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL, UK 

b London School of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK

European Journal of Operational Research 152 (2004) 530–554

Click to access Problem%20structuring%20methods%20in%20action.pdf

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Problem-structuring-methods-in-action-Mingers-Rosenhead/752fdb5dfaddbc0a7946f281a9c454d6f4203542

Click to access Problem%20structuring%20methods%20in%20action.pdf

Introduction to the Special Issue: Teaching Soft O.R., Problem Structuring Methods, and Multimethodology.

John Mingers, Jonathan Rosenhead, (2011)

INFORMS Transactions on Education 12(1):1-3. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/ited.1110.0073

Click to access Mingers-Rosenberg-PSM-SoftOR.pdf

https://pubsonline.informs.org/toc/ited/12/1

Problem Structuring Methods, 1950s-1989: An Atlas of the Journal Literature

Georgiou, Ion and Heck, Joaquim,

(June 26, 2017).

Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3077648 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3077648

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3077648

“An Investigation on the Effectiveness of a Problem Structuring Method in a GroupDecision-Making Process”

Thaviphoke, Ying.

(2020). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Dissertation, Engineering Management, Old Dominion University,

DOI: 10.25777/cx7x-z403
https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/emse_etds/182

What’s the Problem? An Introduction to Problem Structuring Methods

Jonathan Rosenhead

Published Online:1 Dec 1996

https://doi.org/10.1287/inte.26.6.117

PROBLEM STRUCTURING IN PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS

William N. Dunn
Graduate School of Public and International Affairs University of Pittsburgh

Past, present and future of problem structuring methods

J Rosenhead

London School of Economics, London, UK

Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006), 1–7

Framing and Reframing as a Creative Problem Structuring Aid

Victoria J Mabin, and John Davies Management Group Victoria University of Wellington PO Box 600 Wellington
email: vicky.mabin@vuw.ac.nz

Tel +4-495 5140
email: john.davies@vuw.ac.nz Tel + 4-471 5382
Fax + 4-471 2200

Reassessing the scope of OR practice: the influences of problem structuring methods and the analytics movement

Ranyard, J.C., Fildes, R. and Hun, T-I (2014).

(LUMS Working Paper 2014:8).

Lancaster University: The Department of Management Science.

Reasoning maps for decision aid: an integrated approach for problem-structuring and multi-criteria evaluation


G Montibeller1∗, V Belton2, F Ackermann2 and L Ensslin3

1London School of Economics, London, UK; 2University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, UK; and 3Federal University of Santa Catarina (UFSC), Floriano ́polis, Brazil

Journal of the Operational Research Society (2008) 59, 575–589

Special issue on problem structuring research and practice

Fran Ackermann • L. Alberto Franco • Etie ̈nne Rouwette • Leroy White

EURO J Decis Process (2014) 2:165–172 DOI 10.1007/s40070-014-0037-6

Soft OR Comes of Age – But Not Everywhere!

Mingers, John (2011)

ISSN 0305-0483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2011.01.005

Omega, 39 (6). pp. 729-741

An Investigation on the Effectiveness of a Problem Structuring Method in a Group Decision-Making Process

Ying Thaviphoke
Old Dominion University, ythav001@odu.edu

2020

OR competences: the demands of problem structuring methods

Richard John Ormerod

EURO J Decis Process (2014) 2:313–340

DOI 10.1007/s40070-013-0021-6

Hard OR, Soft OR, Problem Structuring Methods, Critical Systems Thinking: A Primer

Hans G. Daellenbach

Department of Management University of Canterbury Christchurch, NZ

h.daellenbach@mang.canterbury.ac.nz

Are project managers ready for the 21th challenges? A review of problem structuring methods for decision support

José Ramón San Cristóbal Mateo

Emma Diaz Ruiz de Navamuel

María Antonia González Villa

https://repositorio.unican.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/10902/13669/ijispm-050203.pdf?sequence=1

Towards a new framework for evaluating systemic problem structuring methods

Gerald Midgley  Robert Y. Cavana  John Brocklesby , Jeff L. Foote  David R.R. Wood , Annabel Ahuriri-Driscoll 

European Journal of Operational Research 229 (2013) 143–154

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221713000945

Problem structuring methods

Jonathan Rosenhead1

Chapter in book

(1) The London School of Economics and Political Science, London, England

Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-0611-X_806

Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science

2001 Edition | Editors: Saul I. Gass, Carl M. Harris

Beyond Problem Structuring Methods: Reinventing the Future of OR/MS

Author(s): M. C. Jackson

Source: The Journal of the Operational Research Society, Vol. 57, No. 7, Special Issue: Problem Structuring Methods (Jul., 2006), pp. 868-878

Published by: Palgrave Macmillan Journals on behalf of the Operational Research Society

Stable URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/4102274

Strategic Development: Methods and Models

Robert G. Dyson (Editor)Frances A. O’Brien (Editor)

ISBN: 978-0-471-97495-6 

May 1998 346 Pages

https://www.wiley.com/en-al/Strategic+Development:+Methods+and+Models-p-9780471974956

Group Model Building:
Problem Structuring, Policy Simulation and Decision Support

David F. Andersen, University at Albany
Jac A.M. Vennix, Radboud University Nijmegen George P. Richardson, University at Albany Etiënne A.J.A. Rouwette, Radboud University Nijmegen

Reassessing the Scope of OR Practice: the Influences of Problem Structuring Methods and the Analytics Movement

J. C. Ranyard, R. Fildes* and Tun-I Hu

The Department of Management Science Lancaster University Management School Lancaster LA1 4YX
UK

Paradoxes, Contradictions, and Dialectics in Organizations

Paradoxes, Contradictions, and Dialectics in Organizations

Source: The role of paradox theory in decision making and management research

In our increasingly complex, global and fast-paced world, competing demands on individuals and teams continually surface in the context of organizational life. Individuals face challenges between work and family, learning and performing, collaborating and competing. Teams grapple with tensions between individual and collective accomplishments, specializing and coordination, and meeting creativity and efficiency goals. Leaders need to maintain both distance and closeness, treat subordinates uniformly while allowing individualism, and ensure decision control while allowing autonomy. Moreover, in an increasingly global environment, individuals and leaders must increasingly act globally, while dealing with local demands or nuances. Perhaps as an even greater challenge, they may value nationalistic concerns, while simultaneously embracing multiculturalism and a global mindset.

Key Words

  • Paradox
  • Conflicts
  • Contradictions
  • Dialectics
  • Process
  • Disequilibria
  • Disruption
  • Opposition
  • Synthesis
  • Competing Poles
  • Dilemmas
  • Trade-offs
  • Dualities
  • Polarities
  • Virtuous Cycles
  • Vicious Cycles
  • Conflicts of Interest
  • Oxymora
  • This and That
  • This or That
  • Either/ Or
  • Both/And
  • Inclusion and Exclusion
  • Networks and Boundaries
  • Outside and Inside
  • Before and After
  • Japanese Zen Koans
  • Chinese Yin Yang
  • Aristotle Logic
  • Hegel Dialectics
  • Tensions
  • Ambidexerity
  • Paradox Theory
  • Ambivalence
  • Double Bind
  • Contingency Theory
  • African Ubuntu
  • Trialectics
  • Verbs: working with (through), addressing, resolving, combining, embracing, mediating, simultaneously achieving, managing contradictions, achieving balance, dealing with, coexisting, aligning, reconciling, solving the struggle between, enabling multiple interests, negotiating tensions, facing, synthesizing opposites, mastering the paradox, overcoming;
  • Nouns: coping strategies, emerging strategies, resolutions, solutions, tactics, compromises (trade-offs), framework, mediator
  • Coping strategies : the presence or absence of coping strategies in the paper and the type of coping strategies (splitting, specializing, suppressing, opposing and synthesizing).
  • Key concept (paradox, dilemma, duality, polarity, dialectic or ambidexterity)

Organizational Paradox

Source: https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199846740/obo-9780199846740-0201.xml

Organizational paradox offers a theory of the nature and management of competing demands. Historically, the dominant paradigm in organizational theory depicted competing demands as trade-offs or dilemmas that could be resolved by choosing one option. In the late 1960s, scholars such as Joan Woodward, Paul Lawrence, and Jay Lorsch introduced contingency theory, suggesting that individuals resolve these tensions by taking the context and environment into account. Paradox theory offers an alternative approach, suggesting that these tensions cannot be resolved. By depicting competing demands as tensions that are not only contradictory, but also interdependent and persistent, paradox theory argues that actors need to accept, engage, and navigate tensions rather than resolve them. Foundational work on paradox in organizations emerged starting in the late 1970s and 1980s. This work drew from rich insights across a variety of disciplines, including Eastern philosophy (Taoism, Confucianism), Western philosophies (Hegel, Heraclitus), psychodynamics (Jung, Adler, Frankel), psychology (Schneider, Watzlawick), political science (Marx, Engel), communications and sociology (Taylor, Bateson), and negotiations and conflict resolution (Follett). More recent work has advanced foundational building blocks toward a theory of paradox. Underlying the theory of paradox is ontologies of dualism—two opposing elements that together form an integrated unity—and dynamism— ongoing change. Scholars have defined paradox as tensions that are contradictory, interdependent, and persistent, noting their dynamic, everchanging, cyclical nature. Some scholars describe the origins of paradox as inherent within systems, while others highlight their social construction through cognition, dialogue, and rationality. Still others explore the relationship between the inherent and socially constructed nature of tensions, depicting tensions as latent within a system, becoming salient through social construction and external conditions. Moreover, some scholars focus more on understanding the poles of paradox, while others depict the ongoing dynamic interaction and evolution. As paradox theory continues to grow and expand, scholars have also added complexity to our understanding, emphasizing paradoxes as nested across levels and as knotted and interwoven across various tensions, while also taking into account the power dynamics, uncertainty, plurality, and scarcity of systems within which paradoxes emerge. This article identifies scholarship that depicts these varied approaches and ideas, providing the foundations of paradox theory for scholars new to this field and in-depth analysis for those seeking to expand their understanding. Section 1 offers foundational work. Section 2 introduces early scholarship that launched the field. Section 3 includes work describing foundational building blocks toward a theory of paradox. Section 4 highlights research that recognizes the nested nature of paradox and describes how this theory has been applied across different levels. Section 5 includes papers that address the meta-theoretical and multi-paradigmatic aspect of paradox theory, noting how these ideas have been applied across phenomena and across theoretical lenses. Section 6 describes papers that draw on the varied methodological traditions associated with paradox. Finally, section 7 identifies several handbooks and special issues that offer an introduction to or integration of paradox theory.

The Pillars of the Paradox: Foundational Papers

The early foundational work in organizational paradox dates back to the late 1970s and 1980s, and it established paradox as a core lens through which to understand organizational phenomena. These different insights emerged out of multiple traditions. One of the earliest pieces, Benson 1977 draws on the work of Hegel, Marx, and Engels to introduce the idea of dialectics in organizations. Discussion continues to this day about the distinctions and synergies between dialectical and paradoxical perspectives (see, e.g., Hargrave and van de Ven 2017, cited under Different Traditions and Influences). Putnam 1986, a foundational work, draws its roots from communication and sociology from writers such as Taylor, Bateson, and Watzlewick, while the core insight of Smith and Berg 1987 grew out of work on psychodynamics from scholars such as Jung, Adler, Frankel, and Freud. In 2000, Marianne Lewis wrote her AMR paper, “Exploring Paradox: Toward a More Comprehensive Guide” (Lewis 2000), which brings together these traditions and has inspired the next generation of those examining paradox. In doing so, she won AMR’s best paper of the year award.

  • Benson, J. Kenneth. “Organizations: A Dialectical View.” Administrative Science Quarterly 22.1 (1977): 1–21. Benson draws heavily on insights from Marx and Engels, providing a dialectical perspective of organizations in which contradictions morph and change over time into new integrations. This piece constitutes an early introduction to thinking about organizational systems as embodiments of oppositional tensions. Benson suggests that understanding these tensions depends on four basic principles: social construction, totality, contradiction, and praxis.
  • Cameron, Kim S. “Effectiveness as Paradox: Consensus and Conflict in Conceptions of Organizational Effectiveness.” Management Science 32.5 (1986): 539–553. Cameron reviews the areas of consensus and conflicts in the literature on effectiveness and in doing so describes the inherently paradoxical nature of effectiveness in organizations. He argues that to be effective an organization must own attributes that are simultaneously contradictory, even mutually exclusive.
  • Clegg, Stewart R., ed. Management and Organization Paradoxes. Advances in Organization Studies 9. Amsterdam: John Benjamins, 2002. Scholars debate the source of paradox as socially constructed and symbolic or inherent and material. Clegg organizes this edited volume to address this paradox of paradoxes. The first section addresses “representing paradoxes,” highlighting the role of symbols and discourse to create paradoxes. The second section focuses on “materializing paradoxes,” describing paradox within various organizational phenomena.
  • Clegg, Stewart R., João Vieira da Cunha, and Miguel Pina e Cunha. “Management Paradoxes: A Relational View.” Human Relations 55.5 (2002): 483–503. The authors offer a relational view of paradox. They discern four regularities from the literature: first, the simultaneous presence of opposites is the everyday experience in management; second, a relationship is often found between the opposing poles (synthesis); third, this synthesis emerges when the relationship’s structural side is kept at a minimal level, and the relationship is mutually reinforcing; finally, this relationship is local, it cannot be designed but emerges from situated practice.
  • Lewis, Marianne. W. “Exploring Paradox: Toward a More Comprehensive Guide.” Academy of Management Review 25.4 (2000): 760–776. This article advances foundational ideas of organizational paradox. Lewis defines paradox as “contradictory yet interrelated elements—elements that seem logical in isolation but absurd and irrational when appearing simultaneously” (p. 760). She develops a framework that starts with tensions (self-referential loops, mixed messages, and system contradictions), identifies defense mechanisms that lead to reinforcing cycles, and explores management strategies to tap into the power of paradox. She further categorizes paradoxes of learning, organizing, and belonging.
  • Poole, Marshall S., and Andrew H. van de Ven. “Using Paradox to Build Management and Organization Theories.” Academy of Management Review 14.4 (1989): 562–578. The authors explore how paradox thinking can be used to improve our approaches to theorizing. They describe paradoxes as “social paradoxes” that exist in the real world, subject to temporal and spatial constraints, and they propose four strategies for addressing social paradoxes: opposition, accepting the contradiction and using it; spatial separation, defining clear levels of analysis; temporal separation, taking time into account; and synthesis, adopting new term to overcome paradoxes. They illustrate each of these four approaches by exploring the paradoxical tension between structure and agency.
  • Putnam, Linda L. “Contradictions and Paradoxes in Organizations.” In Organization-Communication: Emerging Perspectives. Edited by Lee Thayer, 151–167. Norwood, NJ: Ablex, 1986. Putnam draws on theories of discourse, communication, and group relations to introduce a categorization of three types of paradoxes: contradictory messages in which words conflict with actions or in roles; paradoxes or double binds, which highlights self-referential interactions due to the dynamics between actors; and system contradictions in which the tensions are embedded within the organizational structures.
  • Quinn, Robert E., and Kim S. Cameron, eds. Paradox and Transformation: Toward a Theory of Change in Organization and Management. Cambridge MA: Ballinger, 1988. This edited volume includes essays from luminaries in organizational theory offering insights about how paradox can inform and is informed by strategic thinking, organizational change, communication, and group dynamics. These now classic essays provide foundational insights for applying paradox theory to organizational phenomena.
  • Smith, Kenwyn K., and David N. Berg. Paradoxes of Group Life: Understanding Conflict, Paralysis, and Movement in Group Dynamics. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1987. Smith and Berg define paradox as “a statement or set of statements that are self-referential and contradictory and trigger a vicious cycle” (p. 12). They trace the roots of paradoxical thought drawing heavily on psychoanalysis, and they highlight twelve paradoxes within groups and merge them in three different categories: paradoxes of belonging, paradoxes of engaging, and paradoxes of speaking. This text offers an early approach to exploring paradox within organizational phenomena.

SWG 09: Organizational Paradox: Engaging Plurality, Tensions and Contradictions


Coordinators

Costas Andriopoulos, City, University London, United Kingdom
Josh Keller, UNSW Sydney, Australia
Marianne W. Lewis, University of Cincinnati, USA
Ella Miron-Spektor, INSEAD, Europe Campus, France
Camille Pradies, EDHEC Business School, France
Jonathan Schad, King’s College London, United Kingdom
Wendy K. Smith, University of Delaware, USA

Organizational life faces unprecedented complexity. Multiple and contradictory goals, competing stakeholder demands, and fast-paced change increasingly give rise to persistent and interwoven tensions, such as today and tomorrow, social missions and business demands, centralization and decentralization, stability and change. Whereas traditional management research emphasizes contingency approaches to make explicit choices between alternatives of a tension, a paradox approach underlines the value of embracing competing demands simultaneously (Lewis, 2000). A paradox depicts a tension’s elements as contradictory and inconsistent, yet also interdependent, synergistic, and mutually constituted (Farjoun, 2010; Smith & Lewis, 2011). Engaging competing demands simultaneously enables long term organizational sustainability.

The aim of SWG 09 is to advance our understanding of plurality, tensions, and contradictions to better engage them for managerial practice (see Putnam et al., 2016; Schad et al., 2016).

Throughout continuous sub-themes at EGOS Colloquia, we have been able to further our understanding of tensions and contradictions, and thereby define clear boundaries and definitions. Building on a thriving community of scholars, we now seek to apply new theoretical terrains and discuss methodological possibilities to uncover the full potential of paradox research.
 
This SWG aims to specifically explore and advance research on plurality, tensions, and contradictions as follow:

  • Understanding the sources of tensions: Tensions are depicted as inherent to organizing as well as socially constructed (Smith & Lewis, 2011). Recent research explains that tensions can be rooted in complex systems, which is why they can be latent and become salient (Schad & Bansal, 2018).
  • Multiple, interwoven tensions: Given the pervasiveness of multiple tensions, scholars may study co-occurrence of tensions (Jarzabkowski et al., 2013), which span levels of an organizations (Andriopoulos & Lewis, 2009), and can be interrelationships among tensions (Sheep et al., 2017).
  • Microfoundations: What are the microfoundations of paradoxes (Miron-Spektor et al., 2018)? What is the role of emotions – anxiety, ambivalence, vulnerability – in sustaining or leveraging paradoxical tensions (Vince & Broussine, 1996)? What are the consequences for management and organization (Hahn et al., 2014)?
  • Paradoxes of grand and complex challenges:Given the changing landscape of organizations and the environment they are embedded in (social values, political orientations, technological, etc.) how does paradox as a lens inform in dealing with grand and complex challenges?
  • New methods in paradox research: What are new methods or combinations of methods that can help us examine paradoxes empirically (Andriopoulos & Gotsi, 2017; Jarzabkowski et al., 2019)? Are there new ways of triangulation informed by paradox theory, combining qualitative, quantitative and experimental approaches? Can paradox theory benefit from the analysis of big data or simulations? How can paradox be used to explore tensions between theory and methods?
  • The challenge of managing paradox: Addressing paradoxes is challenging (Denis et al., 2001), since tensions surface uncertainty and ambiguity (Tsoukas & Chia, 2002). What are the risks of engaging paradoxes (Pina e Cunha & Putnam, 2019)?
     
References
  • Abdallah, C., Denis, J.L., & Langley, A. (2011): “Having your cake and eating it too Discourses of transcendence and their role in organizational change dynamics.” Journal of Organizational Change Management, 24 (3), 333–348.
  • Andriopoulos, C., & Gotsi, M. (2017): “Methods of Paradox.” In: W. Smith, M. Lewis, P. Jarzabkowski & A. Langley (eds.): The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Paradox. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 513–528.
  • Andriopoulos, C., & Lewis, M.W. (2009): “Exploitation-Exploration Tensions and Organizational Ambidexterity: Managing Paradoxes of Innovation.” Organization Science, 20 (4), 696–717.
  • Denis, J.-L., Lamothe, L., & Langley, A. (2001): “The Dynamics of Collective Leadership and Strategic Change in Pluralistic Organizations.” Academy of Management Journal, 44 (4), 809–837.
  • Farjoun, M. (2010): “Beyond Dualism: Stability and Change as Duality.” Academy of Management Review, 35 (2), 202–225.
  • Hahn, T., Preuss, L., Pinkse, J., & Figge, F. (2014): “Cognitive Frames in Corporate Sustainability: Managerial Sensemaking with Paradoxical and Business Case Frames.” Academy of Management Review, 39 (4), 463–487.
  • Jarzabkowski, P., Bednarek, R., Chalkias, K., & Cacciatori, E. (2019): “Exploring inter-organizational paradoxes: Methodological lessons from a study of a grand challenge.” Strategic Organization, 17 (1), 120–132.
  • Jarzabkowski, P., Lê, J.K., & Van de Ven, A.H. (2013): “Responding to competing strategic demands: How organizing, belonging, and performing paradoxes coevolve.” Strategic Organization, 11 (3), 245–280.
  • Lewis, M.W. (2000): “Exploring Paradox: Toward a More Comprehensive Guide.” Academy of Management Review, 25( 4), 760–776.
  • Miron-Spektor, E., Ingram, A., Keller, J., Smith, W.K., & Lewis, M.W. (2018): “Microfoundations of Organizational Paradox: The Problem Is How We Think about the Problem.” Academy of Management Journal, 61 (1), 26–45.
  • Pina e Cunha, M., & Putnam, L.L. (2019): “Paradox theory and the paradox of success.” Strategic Organization, 17 (1), 95–106.
  • Putnam, L.L., Fairhurst, G.T., & Banghart, S. (2016): “Contradictions, Dialectics, and Paradoxes in Organizations: A Constitutive Approach.” Academy of Management Annals, 10 (1), 65–171.
  • Schad, J., & Bansal, P. (2018): “Seeing the Forest and the Trees: How a Systems Perspective Informs Paradox Research.” Journal of Management Studies, 55 (8), 1491–1506.
  • Schad, J., Lewis, M.W., Raisch, S., & Smith, W.K. (2016): “Paradoxical Research in Management Science: Looking Backward to Move Forward.” Academy of Management Annals, 10 (1), 5–64.
  • Sheep, M.L., Fairhurst, G.T., & Khazanchi, S. (2017): “Knots in the Discourse of Innovation: Investigating Multiple Tensions in a Reacquired Spin-off.” Organization Studies, 38 (3–4), 463–488.
  • Smith, W.K., & Lewis, M.W. (2011): “Towards a Theory of Paradox: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Organizing.” Academy of Management Review, 36 (2), 381–403.
  • Tsoukas, H., & Chia, R. (2002): “On organizational becoming: Rethinking organizational change.” Organization Science, 13 (5), 567–582.
  • Vince, R., & Broussine, M. (1996): “Paradox, Defense and Attachment: Accessing and Working with Emotions and Relations Underlying Organizational Change.” Organization Studies, 17 (1), 1–21.

The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Paradox  

Edited by Wendy K. Smith, Marianne W. Lewis, Paula Jarzabkowski, and Ann Langley

Abstract

Organizations are rife with paradoxes. Contradictory and interdependent tensions emerge from and within multiple levels, including individual interactions, group dynamics, organizational strategies, and the broader institutional context. Examples abound such as those between stability and change, empowerment and alienation, flexibility and control, diversity and inclusion, exploration and exploitation, social and commercial, competition and collaboration, learning and performing. These examples accentuate the distinctions between concepts, positing their potential opposition; either A or B. Yet the social world is pluralistic, and comprises multiple, interwoven tensions, in which the relationship between A and B persists in a dynamic, ever-changing relationship. In the last thirty years, the depth and breadth of paradox studies in organizational theory has grown exponentially, surfacing new insights and applications while challenging foundational ideas, and raising questions around definitions, overlapping lenses, and varied research and managerial approaches. In this book, renowned organizational scholars draw from diverse lenses, theories, and empirics to depict paradox within organizational studies and provide a range of lenses and tools with which to understand and conduct research into such phenomena. In doing so, we hope these chapters re-energize continued insight on organizational paradox, plurality, tensions, and contractions.

Keywords: paradoxpluralitydichotomydialecticsdualitiestensionscontradictionsprocesspracticevirtuous and vicious cycles

Dualities, Dialectics, and Paradoxes in Organizational Life

Front Cover

Moshe Farjoun, Wendy Smith, Ann Langley, Haridimos Tsoukas

Oxford University Press, Jul 26, 2018 – Business & Economics – 240 pages

Contradictions permeate and propel organizational life – including tensions between reaching globally while focusing locally; competing while also cooperating; performing reliably while experimenting, taking risks, and learning; or granting autonomy while constraining freedom. These tensions give organizational members pause, but also spur them to take action; they may be necessary for preserving the social order, but are also required to transform it. Drawing on the Eighth International Symposium on Process Organization Studies, Dualities, Dialectics, and Paradoxes in Organizational Life examines how contradictions fuel emergent, dynamic systems and stimulate novelty, adaption, and transformations. It uses conceptual and empirical studies to offer insight into how process theorizing advances understanding of organizational contradictions; to shed light on how dialectics, paradoxes, and dualities fuel persistence and transformation; and to explore the convergence and divergence of dialectics, paradox, and dualities. Taken together, it offers key insights to inform persistent, contradictory dynamics in organizations and organizational studies.

Elgar Introduction to Organizational Paradox Theory

Elgar Introductions to Management and Organization Theory series

Publication Date: July 2021 ISBN: 978 1 83910 113 7 Extent: 192 pp

Marco Berti, Senior Lecturer in Management, UTS Business, University of Technology Sydney, Australia, Ace Simpson, Reader in Human Resource Management and Organizational Behaviour, Brunel Business School, Brunel University London, UK, Miguel Pina e Cunha, Fundação Amélia de Mello Professor, Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal and Stewart R. Clegg, Professor, University of Stavanger Business School, Norway and Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal 

This insightful Elgar Introduction comprises the first effort to provide a succinct overview of the field of organizational paradox theory, exploring contradictions and tensions in organizational settings. By conceptually mapping the field, it offers guidance through the literature on paradox, making space for new interpretations and applications of the concept. 

Opening with a critical analysis of research to date, the authors explore ideas related to dialectics and ambidexterity in organizations, as well as pragmatic approaches to organizational paradox. Chapters propose new ways to analyse responses to paradox, bringing together influential contributions that consider the nestedness of paradox, the relation between power and paradox, and paradoxes of positive organizational scholarships.

Providing novel approaches to the discipline, this cutting-edge book is crucial for graduate students and management scholars interested in employing organizational paradox theory as a conceptual framework for their research.

‘In an era in which paradox theory, research, and practice has grown exponentially, this book is a landmark contribution to the work on organizational tensions. As a highly accessible guide to the paradox terrain, it offers a number of unique features: 1) a broad historical picture of the evolution of paradox theory, 2) a succinct and insightful discussion of both the positive and negative sides of paradox, 3) a vivid expose on paradox complexity, 4) an exploration of the role of power in exercising and responding to paradox, and 5) recommendations for extending the vitality of this theory as well as avoiding practices that might reify it. The clarity of its presentation, sophistication of its ideas, and use of rich vignettes make it a “must read” for practitioners as well as academics interested in how contradictions and tensions pervade organizational experiences.’ 
– Linda L. Putnam, University of California, Santa Barbara, US

‘Berti, Simpson, Cunha, and Clegg’s thoughtful map of the paradox terrain offers deep insight to any traveler – whether they are just stepping into this world for the first time looking to understand the landscape or whether they are a seasoned explorer who can see old experiences with a new lens. Their focus on how features of power inform our experiences of paradox offers important ideas that allows us to grapple with tensions in new ways. I found myself delighted with the ideas, eager to read more, and energized to engage with paradox studies in new ways.’
– Wendy Smith, University of Delaware, US

‘This book is a tour de force, covering the field of paradox theory and all of the key concepts whilst also sketching out a compelling vision of how paradox theorising can both provide novel insights and also be taken to the next level in studying the grand societal challenges of our time. I strongly recommend it for new and established paradox scholars and those who are “paradox-curious”.’
– Paula Jarzabkowski, Cass Business School, City University of London, UK

‘With this book, the exciting new wave of paradox studies comes of age. It encourages and enables readers to go beyond managerial “both-anding” rhetoric and approaches. It unashamedly exhorts paradox scholars to look up and look around, at the absurdity and contradictions embedded in our lives and work in a society of organizations and the role of power and politics in framing paradoxes and our responses to them. Its stronger and bolder approach to paradox theory will speak to those who feel trapped in iron cages of contradictions, excite critical scholars who wish to deepen the treatment of paradox, and broaden student’s understanding and appreciation of the tensions, dilemmas and contradictions that bedevil life inside and outside modern institutions.’
– Richard Badham, Macquarie University, Australia

‘This book is a true guide to organizational paradox theory. It offers a multifarious picture of the landscape of organizational paradox with its gently rolling hills but also its sharp cliffs and deep abysses. It does a brilliant job in offering guidance into paradox research without tracing out a path to follow. Every word of this book reflects the deep and long-lasting engagement, dedication, and passion that the authors have devoted to studying paradox. It is a great service to our burgeoning field and to those who want to join the fascinating endeavor of venturing the winding roads of researching and navigating organizational paradox.’
– Tobias Hahn, ESADE Business School, Ramon Llull University, Spain

Contradictions

  • Global and Local
  • Cooperation and Competition
  • Nationalism and Globalism
  • Nativism vs Multiculturalism
  • Short Term Efficiency and Long term Development
  • Organizational Stability and Flexibility
  • Shareholders and Stakeholders
  • Conforming to and Shaping Collective Forces in the Environment
  • Nurture and Discipline
  • Respect vs Suspect
  • Consistency vs Flexibility
  • Solidarity vs Autonomy

Types of Competing Demands

Source: Analyzing competing demands in organizations: a systematic comparison

Source: Analyzing competing demands in organizations: a systematic comparison

Source: 27 years of research on organizational paradox and coping strategies: A review

Source: Dialectic, Contradiction, or Double Bind? Analyzing and Theorizing Employee Reactions to Organizational Tension

coping strategies

  • opposition
  • spatial separation
  • temporal separation
  • synthesis
  • splitting,
  • specializing,
  • suppressing

Source: 27 years of research on organizational paradox and coping strategies: A review

Leadership

Source: From Tension to Transformation
How Wise Decision-makers Transcend Paradoxes and Ambiguity

Source: From Tension to Transformation
How Wise Decision-makers Transcend Paradoxes and Ambiguity

Seven Pillars of Cultivating Paradoxical Wisdom

Source: The seven pillars of paradoxical organizational wisdom: On the use of paradox as a vehicle to synthesize knowledge and ignorance

Source: Grasping the dynamics within paradox – comparing exogenous and endogenous approaches to paradox using social systems theory

My Related Posts:

Dialogs and Dialectics

Reflexivity, Recursion, and Self Reference

Second Order Cybernetics of Heinz Von Foerster

Knot Theory and Recursion: Louis H. Kauffman

Process Physics, Process Philosophy

Boundaries and Networks

Multilevel Approach to Research in Organizations

Networks and Hierarchies

Levels of Human Psychological Development in Integral Spiral Dynamics

Key Sources of Research

Metaphor, recursive systems, and paradox in science and developmental theory

W F Overton 1

Child Dev Behav. 1991;23:59-71.

doi: 10.1016/s0065-2407(08)60022-1.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/1767726/

Contradictions, Dialectics, and Paradoxes in Organizations: A Constitutive Approach

  • January 2016
  • The Academy of Management Annals 10(1):65-171

DOI:10.5465/19416520.2016.1162421

Linda L. Putnam

Gail Fairhurst

Scott Banghart

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325002624_Contradictions_Dialectics_and_Paradoxes_in_Organizations_A_Constitutive_Approach

Integrating Dialectical and Paradox Perspectives on Managing Contradictions in Organizations

Timothy J Hargrave, Andrew H Van de Ven

 May 13, 2016 

https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840616640843

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0170840616640843

Contradictions, Dialectics and Paradoxes

  • January 2016
  • In book: SAGE HANDBOOK OF PROCESS ORGANIZATION STUDIES
  • Publisher: Sage
  • Editors: Ann Langley, Haridimos Tsoukas

Moshe Farjoun

  • York University

Dualities, Dialectics, and Paradoxes in Organizational Life

edited by Moshe Farjoun, Wendy Smith, Ann Langley, Haridimos Tsoukas

Oxford Univ Press

2018

Adding Complexity to Theories of
Paradox, Tensions and Dualities of Innovation and Change

Introduction to
Organization Studies Special Issue on
Paradox, Tensions and Dualities of Innovation and Change

Wendy Smith Miriam Erez Marianne Lewis Sirkka Jarvenpaa Paul Tracey

Organizational Paradox

Simone CarmineWendy K. Smith

LAST MODIFIED: 12 JANUARY 2021

DOI: 10.1093/OBO/9780199846740-0201

https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199846740/obo-9780199846740-0201.xml

Paradox Research in Management Science: Looking Back to Move Forward.

Schad, J., Lewis, M. W., Raisch, S. & Smith, W. K. (2016).

Academy of Management Annals, 10(1), pp. 5-64.

doi: 10.1080/19416520.2016.1162422

Logics of Identity, Contradiction, and Attraction in Change

Jeffrey D. Ford and Laurie W. Ford

Published Online: 1 Oct 1994 

https://doi.org/10.5465/amr.1994.9412190218

Academy of Management Review VOL. 19, NO. 4 

https://journals.aom.org/doi/full/10.5465/amr.1994.9412190218

Contradictions, Tensions, Paradoxes, and Dialectics

Deborah Ballard-ReischPaaige K. Turner

First published: 08 March 2017 

https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118955567.wbieoc043PDF

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/9781118955567.wbieoc043

Contradiction and Harmony

https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/spirkin/works/dialectical-materialism/ch02-s11.html

Analyzing competing demands in organizations: a systematic comparison

Medhanie Gaim medhanie.gaim@umu.se

1Umeå School of Business, Economics and Statistics, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden

Nils Wåhlin , Miguel Pina e Cunha and Stewart Clegg

Journal of Organization Design (2018) 7:6 https://doi.org/10.1186/s41469-018-0030-9

https://d-nb.info/1166551857/34

A Daoist Critique of Dialectics and Why It Matters

Joseph Pratt

Yingnan Zhao

Peking University Law School

70 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2018 Last revised: 22 Dec 2020

Date Written: April 12, 2019

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3140946

The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Paradox  

Edited by Wendy K. Smith, Marianne W. Lewis, Paula Jarzabkowski, and Ann Langley

The curse of the Hegelian heritage: “Dialectic,” “contradiction,” and “dialectical logic” in Activity Theory

Michael H.G. Hoffmann, Atlanta, USA

https://spp.gatech.edu/publications/pubFile/358

Institutional Contradictions, Praxis, and Institutional Change: A Dialectical Perspective

Myeong-Gu Seo and W. E. Douglas Creed

The Academy of Management Review 

Vol. 27, No. 2 (Apr., 2002), pp. 222-247 (26 pages) 

Published By: Academy of Management 

https://www.jstor.org/stable/4134353?seq=1

What, exactly, is a paradox? 

William G. Lycan

Analysis, Volume 70, Issue 4, October 2010, Pages 615–622, https://doi.org/10.1093/analys/anq069

Published: 28 July 2010

https://academic.oup.com/analysis/article/70/4/615/106991

Dialectic, Contradiction, or Double Bind? Analyzing and Theorizing Employee Reactions to Organizational Tension

Sarah J. Tracy

Journal of Applied Communication Research, Vol. 32, No. 2, May 2004, pp. 119–146

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0090988042000210025?journalCode=rjac20

https://asu.pure.elsevier.com/en/publications/dialectic-contradiction-or-double-bind-analyzing-and-theorizing-e

Heraclitus and the Art of Paradox

Mary Margaret McCabe

In Platonic Conversations

Mary Margaret McCabe

Print publication date: 2015

Print ISBN-13: 9780198732884

DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198732884.001.0001

https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198732884.001.0001/acprof-9780198732884-chapter-2

ORGANIZATIONAL DIALECTICS

Stewart Clegg

s.clegg@uts.edu.au

Chapter prepared for The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Paradox: Approaches to Plurality, Tensions, and Contradictions, edited by M.W. Lewis, W.K. Smith, P. Jarzabkowski & A. Langley.

PARADOX AND LEARNING: IMPLICATIONS FROM PARADOXICAL PSYCHOTHERAPY AND ZEN BUDDHISM FOR MATHEMATICAL INQUIRY WITH PARADOXES

Nadia Stoyanova Kennedy State University of New York (SUNY) at Stony Brook

Systems Intelligence in Leadership and Everyday Life

edited by Raimo P. Hämäläinen

Dialectical Opposition in Schoenberg’s Music and Thought

Michael Cherlin

Music Theory Spectrum, Volume 22, Issue 2, Fall 2000, Pages 157–176, https://doi.org/10.2307/745958

Published: 01 October 2000

https://academic.oup.com/mts/article-abstract/22/2/157/1087855?redirectedFrom=PDF

From Tension to Transformation
How Wise Decision-makers Transcend Paradoxes and Ambiguity

Dr. Peter Verhezen

Amroop

Dialectical Theory

https://www.encyclopedia.com/reference/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/dialectical-theory

The role of paradox theory in decision making and management research

David A. Waldman , Linda L. Putnam , Ella Miron-Spektor , Donald Siegel

Received 2 April 2019; Accepted 19 April 2019

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.obhdp.2019.04.006

27 years of research on organizational paradox and coping strategies: A review

Nathalie Guilmot

Louvain School of Management

nathalie.guilmot@uclouvain.be

Ina Ehnert
Louvain School of Management

ina.ehnert@uclouvain.be

https://www.strategie-aims.com/events/conferences/25-xxiveme-conference-de-l-aims/communications/3387-27-years-of-research-on-organizational-paradox-and-coping-strategies-a-review/download

Chapter 1 Why are uncertainty, ambiguity and paradox important for managers?

Managing in Uncertainty: Complexity and the paradoxes of everyday organizational life. Routledge, 2015.

https://uhra.herts.ac.uk/bitstream/handle/2299/16089/1_Why_write_about_paradox_and_uncertainty.pdf?sequence=1

The Arrow of Time and the Cycle of Time: Concepts of Change, Cognition, and Embodiment

  • July 1994
  • Psychological Inquiry 5(3):215-237

DOI:10.1207/s15327965pli0503_9

Willis F. Overton

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/247504074_The_Arrow_of_Time_and_the_Cycle_of_Time_Concepts_of_Change_Cognition_and_Embodiment

Paradox as a Metatheoretical Perspective: Sharpening the Focus and Widening the Scope

DOI:10.1177/0021886314522322

Marianne Lewis

Wendy K. Smith

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/275418916_Paradox_as_a_Metatheoretical_Perspective_Sharpening_the_Focus_and_Widening_the_Scope

Paradox theory and the paradox of success

Miguel Pina e Cunha

Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal

Linda L Putnam

University of California, USA

Strategic Organization 2019, Vol. 17(1) 95–106

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1476127017739536

The paradox of co‐operation and competition in strategic alliances: towards a multi‐paradigm approach

Colin  Clarke‐Hill, Huaning  Li, Barry  Davies

Management Research News

ISSN: 0140-9174

Article publication date: 1 February 2003

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/01409170310783376/full/html?skipTracking=true

Twelfth International Symposium on Process Organization Studies

http://www.process-symposium.com

Theme:
Organizing beyond organizations for the common good:

Addressing societal issues through process studies

PROCESS STUDIES OF CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT: UNVEILING TEMPORALITY, ACTIVITY, AND FLOW

ANN LANGLEY HEC Montréal

CLIVE SMALLMAN University of Western Sydney

HARIDIMOS TSOUKAS
University of Cyprus and University of Warwick

ANDREW H. VAN DE VEN University of Minnesota

Academy of Management fournal 2013, Vol. 56, No. 1, 1-13. http://dx.doi.org/10.5465/amj.2013.4001

The Practice Approach: For a Praxeology of Organisational and Management Studies

Davide Nicolini and Pedro Monteiro

Click to access nicolini_and_monteiro_-_the_practice_approach.pdf

The SAGE Handbook of Process Organization Studies

Ann Langley and Haridimos Tsoukas

2016

Click to access 866021353.pdf

Dealing with Paradoxes of Law: Derrida, Luhmann, Wiethölter

Translated by Iain L. Fraser

GUNTHER TEUBNER

Oren Perez and Gunther Teubner (eds.), On Paradoxes and Inconsistencies in Law, Hart, Oxford 2006, 41-64

On The Marxist Dialectic

Sean Sayers

The Influence of Biculturalism on the Development of a Dialectical Thinking

LUISS Guido Carli / Premio tesi d’eccellenza

Working paper n. 7/2016-2017

Publication date: February 2019

Dialectical Thinking and Humanistic Psychology

John Rowan

http://www.practical-philosophy.org.uk

Click to access 3-2%2020%20Rowan%20-%20Humanistic%20Psychology.pdf

PARADOXES. Their Roots, Range and Resolution.

Nicholas RESCHER

Chicago and La Salle, Ill.: Open Court, 2001

Review by Mirela Saim

Click to access ReviewRescher.pdf

Culture, Dialectics, and Reasoning About Contradiction

Kaiping Peng

Richard E. Nisbett

September 1999 • American Psychologist

Vol. 54, No. 9, 741-754

Elgar Introduction to Organizational Paradox Theory

Marco Berti, Senior Lecturer in Management, UTS Business, University of Technology Sydney, Australia,

Ace Simpson, Reader in Human Resource Management and Organizational Behaviour, Brunel Business School, Brunel University London, UK,

Miguel Pina e Cunha, Fundação Amélia de Mello Professor, Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal

Stewart R. Clegg, Professor, University of Stavanger Business School, Norway and Nova School of Business and Economics, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Portugal 

Elgar Introductions to Management and Organization Theory series

Publication Date: July 2021 ISBN: 978 1 83910 113 7 Extent: 192 pp

https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/elgar-introduction-to-organizational-paradox-theory-9781839101137.html

Transcending Paradox: The Chinese “Middle Way” Perspective

MING-JER CHEN† chenm@darden.virginia.edu 

Darden Graduate School of Business, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550, USA

Asia Pacific Journal of Management, 19, 179–199, 2002

SOLUTIONS TO ORGANIZATIONAL PARADOX: A PHILOSOPHICAL PERSPECTIVE

XIN LI Copenhagen Business School xl.int@cbs.dk

VERNER WORM Copenhagen Business School

Submitted to Academy of Management 2015 annual conference On 8 December 2014
Submission number: 10466

Click to access Solutions%20to%20Organizational%20Paradox%20(1).pdf

Exploring Paradox: Toward a More Comprehensive Guide

M Lewis

Article in The Academy of Management Review · October 2000 

DOI: 10.2307/259204

LOGIC(S) AND PARADOX

Marco Berti

The Lived Experience of Paradox: How Individuals Navigate Tensions during the Pandemic Crisis

https://dial.uclouvain.be/pr/boreal/object/boreal%3A242317/datastream/PDF_01/view

HOW DO FIRMS MANAGE STRATEGIC DUALITIES? A PROCESS PERSPECTIVE

JULIAN BIRKINSHAW DONAL CRILLY London Business School

CYRIL BOUQUET

IMD Business School

SUN YOUNG LEE

UCL School of Management, London

Academy of Management Discoveries 2016, Vol. 2, No. 1, 51–78.
Online only http://dx.doi.org/10.5465/amd.2014.0123

System of Systems Management

Brian Sauser, John Boardman, and Alex Gorod

Stevens Institute of Technology, USA

System of Systems – Innovations for the 21st Century, 

Edited by [Mo Jamshidi]. ISBN 0-471-XXXXX-X Copyright © 2008 Wiley[Imprint], Inc.

PARADIGMS, PRAXIS AND PARADOX IN THE ANALYSIS OF ORGANIZATION CHANGE: THE GENERATIVE NATURE OF CONTROL

M. Ann Welsh

Department of Management College of Business Administration University of Cincinnati
P.O. Box 210165 Cincinnati, OH 45221-0165 513-556-7136 Ann.Welsh@uc.edu

Gordon E. Dehler

Organizational Sciences Program The George Washington University 2147 F Street NW Washington, DC 20052 202-994-1880 dehlerwelsh@mindspring.com

A Paradox Approach to Societal Tensions during the Pandemic Crisis

Garima Sharma1, Jean Bartunek2, Patrice M. Buzzanell3,
Simone Carmine4, Carsyn Endres5, Michael Etter6,7, Gail Fairhurst5, Tobias Hahn8, Patrick Lê9, Xin Li7,10, Vontrese Pamphile11,
Camille Pradies12, Linda L. Putnam13, Kimberly Rocheville2, Jonathan Schad6, Mathew Sheep14, and Joshua Keller15

Journal of Management Inquiry
2021, Vol. 30(2) 121–137

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1056492620986604

Communicative dynamic to reconstruct paradoxes in organizations

Harald Tuckermann
University of St. Gallen, harald.tuckermann@unisg.ch

Thomas Schumacher
University of St. Gallen, thomas.schumacher@unisg.ch

Johannes Rüegg-Stürm
University of St. Gallen, johannes.rueegg@unisg.ch

Chapter 4

The seven pillars of paradoxical organizational wisdom: On the use of paradox as a vehicle to synthesize knowledge and ignorance

By FILIPA ROCHA RODRIGUES, MIGUEL PINA E CUNHA, ARMÉNIO REGO
in Book Wisdom Learning Edition 1st Edition First Published 2016
Imprint Gower
eBook ISBN 9781315547039

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/316668071_The_seven_pillars_of_paradoxical_organizational_wisdom_On_the_use_of_paradox_as_a_vehicle_to_synthesize_knowledge_and_ignorance

From Vicious to Virtuous Paradox Dynamics: The Social-symbolic Work of Supporting Actors

Camille PradiesAndrea TunarosaMarianne W. Lewis,

 …First Published March 18, 2020 

https://doi.org/10.1177/0170840620907200

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0170840620907200

Dynamic Capabilities and Strategic Paradox: a case study

Patrick bohl

Click to access VT_2015n11p25.pdf

Here Be Paradox: How Global Business Leaders Navigate Change

Janet Ann  Nelson

Advances in Global Leadership

ISBN: 978-1-78754-298-3, eISBN: 978-1-78754-297-6

ISSN: 1535-1203

Publication date: 26 November 2018

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/S1535-120320180000011001/full/html?skipTracking=true

Grasping the dynamics within paradox – comparing exogenous and endogenous approaches to paradox using social systems theory

PROS 2019 – draft version 12.05.19

Harald Tuckermann, Simone Gutzan, Camille Leutenegger, Johannes Rüegg-Stürm,

Institute of Systemic Management and Public Governance, University of St. Gallen, Dufourstrasse 40a, 9008 St. Gallen, Switzerland,

Email: harald.tuckermann@unisg.ch

Paradoxes in supply chains: a conceptual framework for packed products

Henrik Palsson
Faculty of Engineering, Lund University, Lund, Sweden, and

Erik Sandberg

Department of Logistics and Quality Management, Link€oping University, Link€oping, Sweden

The International Journal of Logistics Management

Vol. 31 No. 3, 2020 pp. 423-442

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJLM-12-2019-0338/full/pdf?title=paradoxes-in-supply-chains-a-conceptual-framework-for-packed-products

https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/IJLM-12-2019-0338/full/html

Top managers’ improvisational decision-making in crisis: a paradox perspective

DOI:10.1108/MD-08-2020-1060Authors:

Pooya Tabesh

Dusya Vera

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/346361487_Top_managers%27_improvisational_decision-making_in_crisis_a_paradox_perspective

Navigate Paradox in Organizations: The Implications of Combining Theory of Paradox with Practice

Mourad Mechiche
Independent Scholar, Vihastenkarinkatu 21-23 G, Raahe, Finland

European Journal of Business and Management www.iiste.org ISSN 2222-1905 (Paper) ISSN 2222-2839 (Online)
Vol.12, No.29, 2020

We Have To Do This and That? You Must be Joking: Constructing and Responding to Paradox Through Humor

Paula A. Jarzabkowski

City University London, UK

Jane K. Lê

The University of Sydney, Australia

Organization Studies 2017, Vol. 38(3-4) 433–462

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0170840616640846

Paradox beyond East/West orthodoxy: The case of Ubuntu

Medhanie Gaim

Umeå School of Business, Economics and Statistics, Sweden medhanie.gaim@umu.se

Stewart Clegg
University Technology Sydney, Australia & Nova School of Business and Economics, Carcavelos, Portugal

Stewart.Clegg@uts.edu.au

Responding to competing strategic demands: How organizing, belonging, and performing paradoxes coevolve

Paula Jarzabkowski

City University, UK; Cornell University, USA

Strategic Organization 11(3) 245–280.

2013

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1476127013481016

A Paradox Approach to Organizational Tensions During the Pandemic Crisis

Simone Carmine1, Constantine Andriopoulos2, Manto Gotsi3 ,
Charmine E. J. Härtel4, Anna Krzeminska5, Nkosana Mafico4,
Camille Pradies6, Hassan Raza7, Tatbeeq Raza-Ullah8,
Stephanie Schrage9 , Garima Sharma10, Natalie Slawinski11, Lea Stadtler12, Andrea Tunarosa13, Casper Winther-Hansen14 , and Joshua Keller15

Journal of Management Inquiry
2021, Vol. 30(2) 138–153

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1056492620986863

MICROFOUNDATIONS OF ORGANIZATIONAL PARADOX: THE PROBLEM IS HOW WE THINK ABOUT THE PROBLEM

Ella Miron-Spektor

Technion-Israel Institute of Technology Haifa 32000, Israel
Tel: 972-4-829-4439
Fax: 972-4-829-5688
e-mail: ellams@technion.ac.il

Amy Ingram Clemson University amyi@clemson.edu

Josh Keller
Nanyang Technological University JWKeller@ntu.edu.sg

Wendy K. Smith University of Delaware smithw@udel.edu

Marianne W. Lewis University of London Marianne.Lewis@city.ac.uk

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

There are a few Institutions which do general long term trends and scenario analysis.

  • US DNI NIC
  • Atlantic Council
  • UK MOD
  • Shell International
  • HP
  • EY
  • WEF

There are many institutions both public and private which do issue or industry specific scenarios, trends, and futures analysis.

  • Water
  • Food
  • Energy
  • Climate Change
  • Globalization
  • Urbanization
  • Governance
  • Security
  • Technology
  • Demographic
  • Industry specific
  • Nationalism
  • Protectionism
  • Healthcare
  • Human Development

Why do Scenarios?

Its a way to internalize an organization’s external environment. By doing so, managers and leaders can future-proof their strategy.

Image Source: If only we knew. With scenario planning, we do. Here’s how to prepare better for the next crisis

Image Source: Global Business Network

Image Source: WHY THE SOCIAL SECTOR NEEDS SCENARIO PLANNING NOW

Image Source: Megatrends 2020 and beyond /EY Mega Trends

The article below was published in MIT Sloan Review.

The World in 2030: Nine Megatrends to Watch

Where will we be in 2030? 

I don’t usually play the futurist game — I’m more of a “presentist,” looking at the data we have right now on fast-moving megatrends that shape the world today. But a client asked me to paint a picture of what the big trends tell us about 2030. And I’d say we do have some strong indications of where we could be in 11 years. 

The directions we go and choices we make will have enormous impacts on our lives, careers, businesses, and the world. Here are my predictions of how nine important trends will evolve by 2030 — listed in order roughly from nearly certain to very likely to hard to say

Nine Global Trends on the Horizon

Demographics: There will be about 1 billion more of us, and we will live longer. The world should reach 8.5 billion people by 2030, up from 7.3 billion in 2015. The fastest growing demographic will be the elderly, with the population of people over 65 years old at 1 billion by 2030. Most of those new billion will be in the middle class economically, as the percentage of citizens in dire poverty continues to drop (a rare sustainability win). Even as the middle swells, however, the percentage of all new wealth accruing to the very top of the pyramid will continue to be a major, and destabilizing, issue. That said, the other megatrends, especially climate change, could slow or change the outcomes here.

Urbanization: Two-thirds of us will live in cities. The urbanization of our populations will increase, creating more megacities as well as small- and medium-size metropolises. Countervailing forces will include a rising cost of living in the most desirable cities. The effects will include the need for more big buildings with better management technologies (big data and AI that makes buildings much more efficient), and we will need more food moved in from where we grow it to where we eat it — or rapidly expand urban agriculture.

Transparency: Our world will become even more open — and less private.It’s hard to imagine that the trend to track everything will be going anywhere but in one direction: a radically more open world. The amount of information collected on every person, product, and organization will grow exponentially, and the pressure to share that information — with customers and consumers in particular — will expand. The tools to analyze information will be well-developed and will make some decision-making easier; for instance, it will be easier to choose products with the lowest carbon footprints, highest wages for employees, and fewest toxic ingredients. But all these tools will shatter privacy in the process.

Privacy Policy

Climate Crisis: The climate will continue to change quickly and feature regular, extreme weather everywhere. Yes, there’s still uncertainty about how everything will play out exactly, but not about whether the climate is changing dramatically and dangerously. Significant inertia in both atmospheric and economic/human systems allows for a more confident prediction of what will happen in just 11 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made clear how critical it is to radically alter the path of carbon emissions to hold the world to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. But that’s not likely to happen with current levels of commitment in global governments: The important Paris climate accord of 2015, in theory, agrees to hold warming to 2 degrees Celsius. But in practice, what countries have committed to so far will only hold us to no more than 3 degrees of warming. By 2030, we are very likely to already be at or approaching the 1.5 mark. 

The results of climate change will be unrelenting. Many highly populated coastal areas will be in consistent trouble, as sea levels rise. The natural world will be much less rich, with drastic to catastrophic declines in populations of many species and major to total losses of ecosystems like coral. Droughts and floods will stress global breadbasket regions and shift where we grow major crops. The Arctic will be ice-free in the summer (this will allow ships to move freely in this region, which is technically good for shorter supply chains but a Pyrrhic victory at best). Between seas, heat, and shifts in water availability, mass migrations will likely have begun. By 2030, we will have much better clarity on how bad the coming decades after that point will be. We will know whether the melting of the major ice sheets will be literally inundating most coastal cities, and if we’re truly approaching an “Uninhabitable Earth” in our lifetimes. 

Resource Pressures: We will be forced to more aggressively confront resource constraints. To keep volumes of major commodities (such as metals) in line with economic growth, we will need to more quickly embrace circular models: sourcing much less from virgin materials, using recycled content and remanufactured products, and generally rethinking the material economy. Water will be a stressed resource, and it seems likely that many cities will be constantly in a state of water shortage. We will need more investment in water tech and desalination to help. 

Clean Tech: The transformation of our grid, our roadways, and our buildings to zero-carbon technology will be surprisingly far along. Here’s some good news: Due to continuing drops in the cost of clean technologies, renewable energy is dramatically on the rise, making up more than half the global new power capacity every year since 2015. By 2030, effectively no new additions of generating capacity will come from fossil-fuel-based technologies.Electric vehicles will be a large part of the transportation equation: While estimates about the share of EVs on the road by 2030 range from the teens to nearly 100% (assuming early retirement of internal combustion engines), nearly all sales of new vehicles will be EVs. This will be driven by dramatic reductions in the cost of batteries and strict legislation banning fossil-fuel engines. We will also see an explosion of data-driven technologies that make buildings, the grid, roadways, and water systems substantially more efficient.

Technology Shifts: The internet of things will have won the day, and every new device will be connected. Proponents of the “singularity” have long projected that by around 2030, affordable AI will achieve human levels of intelligence. AI and machine learning will plan much of our lives and make us more efficient, well beyond choosing driving routes to optimize traffic. Technology will manipulate us even more than it does today — Russian interference in U.S. elections may look quaint. AI will create some new kinds of jobs but will also nearly eliminate entire segments of work, from truck and taxi drivers to some high-skill jobs such as paralegals and engineers.

Global Policy: There’s an open question about how we’ll get important things done. I’m thinking specifically about whether global governments and institutions will be working in sync to aggressively fight climate change and resource pressures, and tackle vast inequality and poverty — or whether it will be every region and ethnic group for itself. Predicting politics is nearly impossible, and it’s hard to imagine how global policy action on climate and other megatrends will play out. The Paris Agreement was a monumental start, but countries, most notably the U.S., have lately retreated from global cooperation in general. Trade wars and tariffs are all the rage in 2019. It seems likely that, even more than today, it will be up to business to play a major role in driving sustainability.

Populism: The rise of nationalism and radicalism may increase … or it won’t. Even less certain than policy is the support, or lack thereof, of the mass of people for different philosophies of governing. In recent years, populists have been elected or consolidated power in countries as varied as the U.S., Brazil, and Hungary. And yet, in recent weeks, citizens in countries like Turkey, Algeria, and Sudan have pushed back on autocracy. Will that trend continue?

How Should Business Prepare?

Laying out strategies for companies to navigate this likely future world is a book-length conversation. But let me suggest a few themes of action to consider:

  • Engage everyone in the sphere of the business world on climate. A dangerously changing climate is the biggest threat humanity has ever faced. But it’s not all set in stone … yet. Companies have an economic incentive and moral responsibility to work hard to reduce the damage as much as possible. Engage employees (stamp out climate denial), talk to consumers and customers about climate issues through your products, and change internal rules on corporate finance to make investment decisions with flexible hurdle rates that favor pro-climate spending. Most importantly, use influence and lobbying power to demand, at all levels of government, an escalating public price on carbon — and publicly admonish industry lobbying groups that don’t.
  • Consider the human aspect of business more. As new technologies sweep through society and business, the change will be jarring. Those changes and pressures are part of why people are turning to populist leaders who promise solutions. Business leaders should think through what these big shifts mean for the people that make up our companies, value chains, and communities.
  • Embrace transparency. To be blunt, you don’t have a choice. Each successive generation will expect more openness from the companies they buy from and work for. 
  • Listen to the next generation. By 2030, the leading edge of millennials will be nearing 50, and they and Gen Z will make up the vast majority of the workforce. Listen to them now about their priorities and values. 

Predicting the future means projecting forward from what’s already happening, while throwing in expected inertia in human and natural systems. It can give us an impressionistic picture of the world of the future. Our choices matter a great deal, as individuals and through our organizations and institutions. Business, in particular, will play a large role in where the world goes. Employees, customers, and even investors increasingly demand that the role of business be a positive one. 

Look, we could all just wait and see where these historic waves take us. But I prefer that we all work proactively to ensure that a better, thriving future is the one we choose.

About the Author

Andrew Winston is founder of Winston Eco-Strategies and an adviser to multinationals on how they can navigate humanity’s biggest challenges and profit from solving them. He is the coauthor of the international best seller Green to Gold and the author of the popular book The Big Pivot: Radically Practical Strategies for a Hotter, Scarcer, and More Open World. He tweets @andrewwinston.

a database of reports globally published by many institutions.

Global Trends and Future Scenarios

IDB InterAmerican Development Bank

Key Institutions doing Global Scenarios, Trends, and Futures analysis

Shell Scenarios

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html

HP Mega Trends

https://hpmegatrends.com

World Economic Forum

Global Risks Report

https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020

US DNI NIC Global Trends

Paradox of Progress

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends-home

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/digital-extras/previous-reports

Atlantic Council

Global Risks 2035 Update

Decline or New Renaissance?

Mathew J. Burrows 2019

UK MOD Global Strategic Trends
EY Mega Trends

Megatrends 2020 and beyond

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/megatrends

OECD

The Long View: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/scenarios-for-the-world-economy-to-2060.htm

EU Parliament
World Bank

The Future is Now: Scenarios to 2025 and Beyond

J. Warren Evans

https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/full/10.1596/978-1-4648-0307-9_ch4

International Monetary Fund

World Economic Outlook

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

World Resources Institute

https://www.wri.org/publication/which-world-scenarios-21st-century

United Nations

McKinsey Global Institute

MGI in 2019

Highlights of our research this year

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/Innovation/Ten%20highlights%20from%20our%202019%20research/MGI-in-2019-A-compendium-of-our-research-this-year-vF.ashx

McKinsey and Company

The Use and Abuse of Scenarios

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-use-and-abuse-of-scenarios

McKinsey Special Collections
Trends and global forces

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Strategy%20and%20Corporate%20Finance/Our%20Insights/Strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance%20special%20collection/Final%20PDFs/McKinsey-Special-Collections_Trends-and-global-forces.ashx

Shifting tides: Global economic scenarios for 2015–25

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/shifting-tides-global-economic-scenarios-for-2015-25

Boston Consulting Group BCG

Have you future Proofed your strategy?

APRIL 17, 2020 By Alan InyHans KuipersEnrique Rueda-Sabater, and Christian Haakonsen

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/four-scenarios-assess-business-resilience

International Food Policy Research Institute IFPRI

Global food projections to 2020 

emerging trends and alternative futures

https://www.ifpri.org/publication/global-food-projections-2020

World Energy Council

WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS: COMPOSING ENERGY FUTURES TO 2050

https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/entry/world-energy-scenarios-composing-energy-futures-to-2050

EPRI Electric Power Research Institute

A Perspective on the Future of Energy: Scenarios, Trends, and Global Points of View

Millienium Project

THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT

The Institute for the Future

My Related Posts

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Strategy | Strategic Management | Strategic Planning | Strategic Thinking

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

On Anticipation: Going Beyond Forecasts and Scenarios

HP’s Megatrends

Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility

History of Operations Research

Profiles in Operations Research

Jay W. Forrester and System Dynamics

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Short term Thinking in Investment Decisions of Businesses and Financial Markets

The Origins and History of Management Consulting

Multilevel Approach to Research in Organizations

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

Networks and Hierarchies

Hierarchy Theory in Biology, Ecology and Evolution

Systems Biology: Biological Networks, Network Motifs, Switches and Oscillators

Growth and Form in Nature: Power Laws and Fractals

Shapes and Patterns in Nature

Systems View of Life: A Synthesis by Fritjof Capra

Multiplex Financial Networks

Boundaries and Networks

Key Sources of Research

Future Population Growth

by Max Roser

Our World in Data

This article was first published in 2014. It was last revised in November 2019.

https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth

Future Studies

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies

Global Foresight 2050 – Six global scenarios and implications for the forest sector 

AUTHORS: Sten Nilsson, Fredrik Ingemarson
PUBLISHED: 2017, Uppsala
PUBLISHER: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)

An overview of global energy scenarios by 2040: identifying the driving forces using cross‑impact analysis method

S. Ghasemian1 · A. Faridzad1 · P. Abbaszadeh2 · A. Taklif1 · A. Ghasemi1 · R. Hafezi3

Received: 27 November 2019 / Revised: 11 March 2020 / Accepted: 6 April 2020

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-020-02738-5

Learning from the Future

How to make robust strategy in times of deep uncertainty 

From the Magazine (July–August 2020)

https://hbr.org/2020/07/learning-from-the-future

Why the Social Sector Needs Scenario Planning Now

BCG

OCTOBER 01, 2020 

https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/why-social-sector-needs-scenario-planning

Future Worlds

PA Consulting

https://www.paconsulting.com/insights/2020/futureworlds/

Directions in Scenario Planning Literature – A Review of the Past Decades

Celeste Amorim Varuma, Carla Meloa
aDepartment of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro,

Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

The Century Ahead:
Four Global Scenarios

Christi Electris, Paul Raskin, Rich Rosen, and John Stutz

Tellus

https://greattransition.org

Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like?

September 16, 2020

CSIS

https://www.csis.org/analysis/four-scenarios-geopolitical-order-2025-2030-what-will-great-power-competition-look

Futurology Why it’s worth reading crazy-sounding scenarios about the future

Speculating about the future can make it easier to respond to unexpected events

Jul 6th 2019

Economist

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/07/06/why-its-worth-reading-crazy-sounding-scenarios-about-the-future

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY

Scenarios for the United States in 2030

Johanna Zmud, Liisa Ecola, Peter Phleps, Irene Feige

Rand

Future energy: In search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends

Jennifer Morris, David Hone, Martin Haigh, Andrei Sokolov and Sergey Paltsev

November 2020

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

2018 Food, Water, Energy and Climate Outlook 

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Consensus Forecasts

Global Outlook 2020 – 2030

The Conference Board

Global Economic Outlook

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus

A new approach in support of food security and sustainable agriculture

FAO

The Food Water Energy Nexus

UNECE

https://www.unece.org/env/water/nexus

Water, Food and Energy Nexus in Asia and the Pacific

UNESCAP

Developing the Pardee RAND Food-Energy-Water Security Index

Toward a Global Standardized, Quantitative, and Transparent Resource Assessment

by Henry H. WillisDavid G. GrovesJeanne S. RingelZhimin MaoShira EfronMichele Abbott

RAND

https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL165.html

Introduction to the water-energy nexus

Article — 23 March 2020

IEA

https://www.iea.org/articles/introduction-to-water-and-energy

Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030

McKinsey

WEF

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/Metals%20and%20Mining/PDFs/mining_metals_scenarios.aspx

The Long View: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060

OECD

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/scenarios-for-the-world-economy-to-2060.htm

Risk, Resilience, and Alternative Futures: Scenario-building at the World Economic Forum

Christina Garsten, Adrienne Sörbom

CBS

https://research.cbs.dk/en/publications/risk-resilience-and-alternative-futures-scenario-building-at-the-

If only we knew. With scenario planning, we do. Here’s how to prepare better for the next crisis

WEF

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/scenario-planning-is-the-what-if-in-business-here-s-how-it-works/

Energy and Climate Scenarios

IHS Markit

https://ihsmarkit.com/products/energy-climate-scenarios.html

The World in 2030: Nine Megatrends to Watch

Andrew S. Winston 

May 07, 2019

MIT Sloan Review

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-world-in-2030-nine-megatrends-to-watch/

The future of capitalism: Trends, scenarios and prospects for the future

Gerard Delanty

First Published January 30, 2019 

Journal of Classical Sociology

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1468795X18810569

EYQ Mega Trends

Year 2020 Mega Trends

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/megatrends

Year 2016 Megatrends

Year 2018 Megatrends

Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis

Highlights from the report February 2017

Deloitte and WEF

Global Risks 2035: The Search for a New Normal

Atlantic Council

2016

Vision 2040: Global Scenarios for the Oil and Gas Industry

Deloitte

The future of Asia

Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization

MGI 2020

Rise of Debt and Market Based Finance

Rise of Debt and Market Based Finance

It is also known as Non Bank finance or Shadow Banking.

The key difference between traditional banking and shadow banking is fragmented credit chains in the shadow banking.

Traditional Banking does

  • Maturity Transformation
  • Liquidity Transformation
  • Credit Transformation

While traditional banking has backstops

  • Deposit Insurance
  • Central bank

Shadow Banks are not regulated and do not have advantage of backstops.

Hence they are susceptible to systemic risk and runs.

Questions

  • What is Market based Finance?
  • How big is the market?
  • Institutions?
  • Instruments?
  • Who are the borrowers?
  • Who are the investors?
  • What are the risks in market based finance?
  • Role of Central Banks?
  • How to minimize risks?
  • Regulations? Macro Prudential policies?
  • How are banks involved in market based finance?
  • How are they connected to each other and others?

Key Terms

  • Market based Finance MBF
  • Non Bank Credit Intermediation NCBI
  • Shadow Banking
  • Financial Stability
  • Systemic Risk
  • Liquidity Risk
  • Broker Dealers
  • Non Bank Finance NBF
  • Balance Sheet Economics
  • Market Makers
  • Capital Markets
  • Money Markets
  • Money View
  • Money Flows
  • Network Dynamics
  • Regulatory Arbitrage
  • Credit Chains
  • Fragmented Credit Chains
  • Financial Supply Chains
  • Credit Chain Length
  • Growth of Debt

Growth and Size of Market based Finance

Image Source: BANK AND NONBANK LENDING OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS

Image Source: Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

Image Source: The Shadow Banking System in the United States: Recent Developments and Economic Role

Image Source: Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

Image Source: NON-BANK FINANCE: TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

Image Source: THE GROWTH OF NON-BANK FINANCE AND NEW MONETARY POLICY TOOLS 

Image Source: SHADOW BANKING AND MARKET BASED FINANCE

Structural Dynamics of Banking and Financial System

Changes prior to Global Financial Crisis

  • Rise of Debt
  • Rise of Market Based Finance
  • Increase in capital flows both domestic and cross border

Debt dynamics is related to assets side of balance sheet of financial intemediatory.

Market based Finance is related to liabilities side of balance sheet of Financial Intermediatory.

If the chains of financial intermediation are long, then both assets and liabilities of each participant are linked.

Intermediation results in increase of capital flows. From money markets to capital markets. From deposits to loans. From liabilities to assets. There is both pull and push of money flows in the financial system. Demand for capital and supply of capital. They both are linked by banks and non bank finance. Growth of debt is linked to growth of money markets and non bank finance.

Size of Nonfinancial Business and Household Credit

Image Source: FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT – NOVEMBER 2020

In a future post I will discuss debt in US and global financial system.

Please see my related posts for evolution of Financial System Complexity and Its dynamics.

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Funding Sources and Liquidity for US Commercial Banks

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Size and complexity arise together. Along with balance sheet expansion comes changes in links with counterparties (financial networks and interconnections).

Research continues in this area by several institutions and academics.

  • OECD
  • BIS
  • FED RESERVE
  • ECB
  • FSB
  • BOE
  • IMF
  • BOF
  • Others

Source: Structural developments in global financial intermediationThe rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation

The global financial crisis of 2008 underlined the importance for policy makers in understanding the scale and types of financial intermediation in their economies. During the financial crisis, non-bank financial intermediation was of particular concern to authorities, as such forms of ‘shadow banking’, contributed to both the root causes of the crisis, the transmission of financial contagion, and the amplification of shocks.

As this report is published, the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus Covid-19 has caused a global health crisis, has brought economic activity in some sectors to a halt, and has presented the greatest challenge to the global financial system since 2008. As then, understanding financial intermediation activities is critical to mapping the faultlines in the global financial system and mounting effective policy responses.

However, the shape of financial intermediation has changed in important ways since the global financial crisis. Activities in non-bank intermediation, including market-based intermediaries like investment funds and securitised products, have grown and are increasingly interconnected with financial markets. Understanding the interplay between these elements, and the benefits and risks of each, offers a more complete understanding of how global finance can contribute to sustainable economic growth. It also helps provide the full picture needed to help policy makers prepare for and respond to shocks, including pandemics.

“Structural developments in global financial intermediation: The rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation” shines a light on the evolution of global financial intermediation in three key ways. First, it maps the broad-based growth of financial intermediation relative to GDP in many advanced and emerging market economies, and with this growth a shift toward market-based finance. Second, it assesses the shift from equity to debt markets, and the growing imbalances in sovereign and corporate debt markets during a period of highly accommodative monetary policies. Third, it draws attention to key activities in credit intermediation that could contribute to structural vulnerabilities in the global financial system, including: a sharp rise of below-investment grade corporate debt, in particular leverage loans and collateralised loan obligations; the growth of open-ended investment funds that purchase high-yield debt and leveraged loans; and risks associated with the large stock of bank contingent convertible debt.

While these various activities have helped to satisfy investors’ reach for yield during years of market exuberance, they represent new potential faultlines of systemic risk in the event of exogenous shocks, be they from trade tensions, geopolitical risks or the current global pandemic. This report underlines the need for policy frameworks to adapt to market-based finance, and fully reflect the interaction between monetary, prudential, and regulatory tools on credit intermediation. It also underlines the need for dynamic microprudential and activities-based tools to help mitigate excessive risk taking with respect to liquidity and leverage.

By mapping the global financial system, evaluating growing imbalances and risks that could amplify shocks, and assessing the interaction between macro and regulatory tools, this report provides a practical complement to the OECD’s Policy Framework for Effective and Efficient Financial Regulations. Financial authorities should use this analysis to inform both their assessments of activities and risks, and efforts to maximise available tools to harness the benefits of market-based finance to support fair, efficient markets and sustainable economic growth.

Greg Medcraft Director, OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs

Image Source: UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS INHERENT IN SHADOW BANKING: A PRIMER AND PRACTICAL LESSONS LEARNED

Image Source: THE ECONOMICS OF SHADOW BANKING 

Image Source: IS SHADOW BANKING REALLY BANKING?

Table Source: SHADOW BANKING AND MARKET BASED FINANCE

Table 1. A Stylized View of Structural Characteristics of Credit-based Intermediation

Characteristic:Traditional BankingShadow BankingMarket-based Finance
Key Risk TransformationsLiquidity, maturity, leverageCredit enhancement,liquidity, maturity, leverageLess emphasis on credit enhancement and less opaque vs. shadow banking
Institutions Involved in Intermediation Single entityCan be many entities, interconnected through collateral chains and credit guaranteesSingle/few entities
Formal Ex-anteBackstopYesNo / IndirectNo
Implied Sponsor Supportn.a.Yes, can sometimes be contingent liabilitiesNo(insolvency remote)
Example of EntitiesCommercial bankSynthetic CDO, Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV), CNAV MMF, ABCP ConduitBond mutual fund, Distressed debt or PE partnership,Direct lending by pension fund
Main Form of LiabilitiesDebt and deposits,Wholesale & retail-financedDebt,Mainly wholesale financedHighly diverse –Short and long-term debt and equity,Retail & wholesale financed
Key Resulting Financial Stability Risk Systemic risk(institutional spillovers)Systemic risk(institutional spillovers)Shift in price of risk (market risk premia)

My Related Posts

Shadow Banking

Economics of Broker-Dealer Banks

Evolution of Banks Complexity

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Repo Chains and Financial Instability

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Funding Sources and Liquidity for US Commercial Banks

Funding Strategies of Banks

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Key sources of Research

The growth of non-bank finance and new monetary policy tools 

Adrien d’Avernas, Quentin Vandeweyer, Matthieu Darracq Pariès  

20 April 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/growth-non-bank-finance-and-new-monetary-policy-tools

Financial Stability Report

November 2019

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Financial Intermediaries, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy

Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 346 September 2008

US BROKER-DEALER LIQUIDITY IN THE TIME OF FINANCIAL CRISIS

https://www.shearman.com/perspectives/2020/05/us-broker-dealer-liquidity-in-the-time-of-financial-crisis

Unconventional monetary policy and funding liquidity risk

ECB

Structural developments in global financial intermediation

The rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation

by

Robert Patalano and Caroline Roulet*

OECD

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/structural-developments-in-global-financial-intermediation-the-rise-of-debt-and-non-bank-credit-intermediation_daa87f13-en

Financial Stability Review, May 2020

ECB

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202005~1b75555f66.en.html#toc1

Structural changes in banking after the crisis

Report prepared by a Working Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was chaired by Claudia Buch (Deutsche Bundesbank) and B Gerard Dages (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

January 2018

BIS

BANK-BASED OR MARKET-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHICH IS BETTER?

Ross Levine

Working Paper 9138 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9138

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
September 2002

Non-bank finance: trends and challenges

Financial Stability Review

Bank of France

2018

The Origins of Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: Germany, Japan, and the United States

Sigurt Vitols*

January 2001

Financial Stability Report

August 2020

Bank of England

Market-Based Finance:
Its Contributions and Emerging Issues

May 2016

Financial Conduct Authority

Bank-Based Versus Market-Based Financing: Implications for Systemic Risk

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322088863_Bank-Based_Versus_Market-Based_Financing_Implications_for_Systemic_Risk

Off the radar: The rise of shadow banking in Europe 

Martin Hodula  

16 March 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/radar-rise-shadow-banking-europe

Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2019

2020

FSB

https://www.fsb.org/2020/01/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2019/

Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2018

FSB 2019

https://www.fsb.org/2019/02/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2018/

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017

FSB 2018

https://www.fsb.org/2018/03/global-shadow-banking-monitoring-report-2017/

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2016

10 May 2017

FSB 2015 Report

FSB 2014 Report

https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/r_141030.pdf?page_moved=1

FSB 2013 Report

FSB 2012 Report

FSB 2011 Report

Shadow Banking: Monitoring Vulnerabilities and Strengthening Policy Tools

https://www.garp.org/#!/risk-intelligence/all/all/a1Z1W0000054xEzUAI

BANK-BASED AND MARKET-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISONS

Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Ross Levine*

June 1999

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/18e5/660bef2325f326bb8077bd0dd6f5225b1bf8.pdf?_ga=2.215410079.942675951.1605328042-1052966156.1604782392

Off the Radar: Exploring the Rise of Shadow Banking in the EU

Martin Hodula

https://www.cnb.cz/en/economic-research/research-publications/cnb-working-paper-series/Off-the-Radar-Exploring-the-Rise-of-Shadow-Banking-in-the-EU/

https://voxeu.org/article/radar-rise-shadow-banking-europe

Shadow Banking: Economics and Policy

Stijn Claessens, Zoltan Pozsar, Lev Ratnovski, and Manmohan Singh

IMF

2012

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2016/12/31/Shadow-Banking-Economics-and-Policy-40132

Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: Cross-Country Comparisons

A. Demirguc-Kunt

Published 1999

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Bank-Based-and-Market-Based-Financial-Systems%3A-Demirguc-Kunt/cd8cf558db2f8404271050ba40408a28ac4fcbc4

Market-based finance: a macroprudential view

Speech given by
Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor Financial Stability, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Member of the Financial Policy Committee and Member of the Prudential Regulation Committee

BOE/BIS

Asset Management Derivatives Forum, Dana Point, California Friday 9 February 2017

Shadow Banking and Market Based Finance

Tobias Adrian, International Monetary Fund 
Helsinki

September 14, 2017

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/09/13/sp091417-shadow-banking-and-market-based-finance

Transforming Shadow Banking into Resilient Market-based Finance

An Overview of Progress

12 November 2015

FSB

Mapping Market-Based Finance in Ireland

Simone Cima, Neill Killeen and Vasileios Madouros1,2 

Central Bank of Ireland
December 13, 2019

BANK AND NONBANK LENDING OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS

FDIC

Financial Stability Review

November 2019

ECB

Shadow Banking

Zoltan Pozsar, Tobias Adrian, Adam Ashcraft, and Hayley Boesky

FRBNY Economic Policy Review / December 2013

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/2013/0713adri.html

Shadow Banking and Market-Based Finance

Tobias Adrian and Bradley Jones

IMF

No 18/14

Why Shadow Banking Is Bigger Than Ever

DANIELA GABOR

https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/why-shadow-banking-is-bigger-than-ever

The Non-Bank Credit Cycle

Esti Kemp, Ren ́e van Stralen, Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, and Peter Wierts

2018-076

Fed Reserve

The role of financial markets for economic growth

Speech delivered by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, at the Economics Conference “The Single Financial Market: Two Years into EMU” organised by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna on 31 May 2001

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2001/html/sp010531.en.html

Bank deleveraging, the move from bank to market-based financing, and SME financing

Gert Wehinger

OECD

OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Volume 2012/1
© OECD 2012

Shadow Banking: A Review of the Literature

Tobias Adrian Adam B. Ashcraft

2012 FRBNY

The Global Pandemic and Run on Shadow Banks

FRBKC

2020

https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/publications/research/eb/articles/2020/global-pandemic-run-shadow-banks

Shadow Banking: The Rise, Risks, and Rewards of Non-Bank Financial Services

Roy J. Girasa

The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking

ALAN MOREIRA and ALEXI SAVOV∗

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • 2017

Is Shadow Banking Really Banking?

Bryan J. Noeth ,  Rajdeep Sengupta

Saturday, October 1, 2011

FRBSL

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2011/is-shadow-banking-really-banking

Three Essays on Capital Regulations and Shadow Banking

Diny Ghuzini
Western Michigan University, diny.ghuzini@wmich.edu

CLARIFYING THE SHADOW BANKING DEBATE: APPLICATION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Amias Gerety 2017

Institute of International Economic Law Georgetown University Law Center

Commercial Banking and Shadow Banking

The Accelerating Integration of Banks and Markets and its Implications for Regulation

ARNOUD W. A. BOOT AND ANJAN V. THAKOR

(prepared as revised version of Chapter 3 in The Oxford University Press Handbook, The Accelerating Integration of Banks and Markets and its Implications for Regulation, 3rd edition.)

The Shadow Banking System in the United States: Recent Developments and Economic Role

Tresor Economics

France

2013

https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/ccfd4180-fddb-4333-bd16-0b91f2daa18c/files/6ae6455a-92be-43a5-a94d-91b03b38a8d8

Shadow Banking: Policy Challenges for Central Banks

Thorvald Grung Moe*

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

May 2014

BANKS, SHADOW BANKING, AND FRAGILITY

Stephan Luck and Paul Schempp

2014 ECB

Restructuring the Banking System to Improve Safety and Soundness

Thomas M. Hoenig
Vice Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Charles S. Morris
Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Original version: May 2011 Revised: December 2012

Understanding the Risks Inherent in Shadow Banking: A Primer and Practical Lessons Learned

by David Luttrell Harvey Rosenblum and Jackson Thies

FRB Dallas

Shadow Banking Concerns: The Case of Money Market Funds

Saad Alnahedh† , Sanjai Bhagat

Towards a theory of shadow money

Daniela Gabor* and Jakob Vestergaard

The Economics of Shadow Banking 

Manmohan Singh

2013

Regulating the Shadow Banking System

GARY GORTON

ANDREW METRICK

Yale University

The Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from Capital Regulation

Rustom M. Irani, Raymakal Iyer, Ralf R. Meisenzahl, and Jos ́e-Luis Peydr ́o

2018-039

Fed Reserve

Shadow Banking: Background and Policy Issues

Edward V. Murphy

Specialist in Financial Economics

December 31, 2013

Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

The Clearing House

https://www.theclearinghouse.org/banking-perspectives/2015/2015-q4-banking-perspectives/articles/shining-a-light-on-shadow-banking

REGULATING SHADOW BANKING*

STEVEN L. SCHWARCZ

2011

Duke Law

Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System Adi Sunderam

Harvard Business School and NBER September 2014

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/27336543/sunderam_money-creation.pdf?sequence=1

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report Chapter 2

Shadow Banking

THE SHADOW BANKING CHARADE

By Melanie L. Fein*

February 15, 2013

Assessing shadow banking – non-bank financial intermediation in Europe

No 10/ July 2016

by
Laurent Grillet-Aubert Jean-Baptiste Haquin Clive Jackson
Neill Killeen
Christian Weistroffer

ESRB

Shedding Light on Shadow Banking

Timothy Lane

Bank of Canada

shadow banking and capital markets

RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Group of Thirty

Shadow Banking and Market Based Finance

Tobias Adrian, International Monetary Fund 
Helsinki

September 14, 2017

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/09/13/sp091417-shadow-banking-and-market-based-finance

Financial Stability Report – November 2020

Federal Reserve

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2020-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2019-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/financial-stability-report.htm

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

To big to fail means too interconnected to fail.
As the balance sheets of banks have expanded so has their number of counterparties on both sides of balance sheets.

The US commercial banks have have expanded their balance sheets.

On assets side, the loans portfolio has expanded.

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

On liabilities side, the deposits and borrowings have increased.

US Federal Reserve publishes H8 report on Assets and Liabilities of the US commercial banks. Detailed information on aggregate data presented in this post can be obtained from it.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/h8notes.htm

On liabilities side, the borrowings from wholesale money markets and shadow banking contributed to systemic risk during 2008 financial crisis. Please see my posts on this subject.

Funding Strategies of Banks

Shadow Banking

There were also capital flows in US markets from foreign banks and other markets.

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

On liabilities side, because of increased borrowings from short term markets, the financial interconnections have also increased resulting in systemic risk and financial contagion.

On assets side, because of increased volumes of loan portfolios, the systemic risk and chances for financial contagion have increased.

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Contagion in Financial (Balance sheets) Networks

For analytical framework, accounting approach (Post Keynesian Economics) is one of the option.

Balance Sheet Economics – Financial Input-Output Analysis (using Asset Liability Matrices) – Update March 2018

Foundations of Balance Sheet Economics

Economics of Money, Credit and Debt

Morris Copeland and Flow of Funds accounts

Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling

Key Terms

  • Money View
  • Money Flows
  • Stocks and Flows
  • System Dynamics
  • Business Dynamics
  • Business Strategy
  • Asset Liability Management ALM
  • Balance Sheet Economics
  • Monetary Policy
  • Interest Rates
  • Credit
  • Debt
  • Money
  • Balance Sheet Expansion
  • Systemic Risk
  • Interconnectivity
  • Loan Portfolio
  • To big to fail
  • Networks
  • Funding Strategy
  • Market Liquidity
  • Funding Liquidity
  • Deposits
  • Interest Income
  • Non Interest Income
  • Borrowings
  • Wholesale Money Markets
  • Shadow Banking
  • International Capital Flows
  • Round Tripping
  • Global Liquidity
  • Eurodollar Market
  • Money Market Mutual Funds
  • Quadruple Accounting
  • Morris Copeland
  • Hyman Minsky
  • Wynn Godley
  • Perry Mehrling

Image Source: Liberty Street Economics 2017

AVERAGE NET INTEREST MARGIN OF BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 1995 TO 2019
Image Source: Statista

NET INTEREST MARGIN FOR ALL U.S. BANKS (USNIM)
Image Source: FRED

Total Assets, All Commercial Banks (TLAACBW027SBOG)
Image Source: FRED

Total Liabilities, All Commercial Banks (TLBACBW027NBOG)
Image Source: FRED

DEPOSITS, ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (DPSACBW027SBOG)
Image Source: FRED

My Related Posts

Balance Sheet Economics – Financial Input-Output Analysis (using Asset Liability Matrices) – Update March 2018

Foundations of Balance Sheet Economics

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Funding Strategies of Banks

Economics of Money, Credit and Debt

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Morris Copeland and Flow of Funds accounts

Key Sources of Research

Deposits, All Commercial Banks (DPSACBW027SBOG)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOG

Total Liabilities, All Commercial Banks (TLBACBW027NBOG)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLBACBW027NBOG

TOTAL ASSETS, ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (TLAACBW027SBOG)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLAACBW027SBOG

Between deluge and drought:
The future of US bank liquidity and funding

Rebalancing the balance sheet during turbulent times

McKinsey

2013

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/Risk/Working%20papers/48_Future%20of%20US%20funding.ashx

Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States – H.8

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/h8notes.htm

The geography of dollar funding of non-US banks1

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

My last post on this topic was in May 2019.

Research continues on this important topic. What are the effects of Monetary policy on Financial Institution?

Please see my previous posts to find the issues. In this post I have compiled papers and articles published since my last post in 2019.

Rational Decision making by the firms
  • Lend More – When margins decline, the volumes must go up to maintain or increase profits. This increases risk taking.
  • Diversify – Look for other sources of earnings
  • Consolidate – Merge with other banks as a business strategy to grow loan volumes.

How do banks make money? What is source of their income? How much is Net interest income? How much is Non Interest Income?

As you can see from the graphs below, Net interest income of banks is going up. Although the net interest margins are down, Banks are earning their income mostly from net interest income.

Volumes of Outstanding loans must be going up to make up for decrease in margins.

Sources of interest income can be

  • Commercial loans
  • Real Estate loans
  • Auto Loans
  • Credit cards
  • Student Loans

Additionally consolidation among the banks can be partially explained by the decling number of banks. See graph below.

Diversification to find other sources of earnings.

Image Source: FRED
EFFECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (FEDFUNDS)

Image Source: FRED
NET INTEREST MARGIN FOR ALL U.S. BANKS (USNIM)

Image Source: Statista
AVERAGE NET INTEREST MARGIN OF BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 1995 TO 2019

Image Source: Liberty Street Economics 2017

Image Source: FRED
BANK’S NON-INTEREST INCOME TO TOTAL INCOME FOR UNITED STATES

Image Source: FRED
Net Interest Income for Commercial Banks in United States

Image Source: FRED
Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTBKCR)

Image Source: FRED
Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTLL)

Image Source: FRED
Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS)

Image Source: FRED
REAL ESTATE LOANS, ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (REALLN)

Image Source: FRED
Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks (CONSUMER)

Image Source: FRED
COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE U.S. (USNUM)

Key Terms

  • Net Interest Margin
  • Profitability
  • Interest Income
  • Non Interest Income
  • Monetary Policy
  • Fed Funds Rate
  • 10 Year T Bond’s Rate
  • Shadow Banking
  • Search for Yield
  • Risk Taking
  • Housing Loans
  • Auto Loan
  • Deposits
  • Credit Cards
  • Money Markets Mutual Funds
  • Money Markets
  • Capital Markets
  • International Capital Flows
  • Diversification
  • Mergers
  • To Big to Fail
  • Non Core Business

My Related Posts

Low Interest Rates and Bank’s Profitability – Update May 2019

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability : Update July 2017

Low Interest Rates and Banks Profitability: Update – December 2016

Impact of Low Interest Rates on Bank’s Profitability

Non Interest Income of Banks: Diversification and Consolidation

Evolution of Banks Complexity

Shadow Banking

Funding Strategies of Banks

Low Interest Rates and Risk taking channel of Monetary Policy

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Key Sources of Research

Bank profitability and risk‐taking under low interest rates

Jacob A. Bikker1,2 | Tobias M. Vervliet3

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321277826_Bank_profitability_and_risk-taking_under_low_interest_rates

How banks can ease the pain of negative interest rates

March 3, 2020 | Article

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/how-banks-can-ease-the-pain-of-negative-interest-rates#

Bank intermediation when interest rates are very low for long 

Michael Brei, Claudio Borio, Leonardo Gambacorta  

07 February 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/bank-intermediation-when-interest-rates-are-very-low-long

Implications of negative interest rates for the net interest margin and lending of euro area banks

by Melanie Klein

Monetary and Economic Department 

March 2020

Are Banks Exposed to Interest Rate Risk?

Pascal Paul and Simon W. Zhu

2020-16 | June 22, 2020 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Negative rates and the transmission of monetary policy

Prepared by Miguel Boucinha and Lorenzo Burlon[1]

Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 3/2020.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2020/html/ecb.ebart202003_02~4768be84e7.en.html#toc2

Is there a zero lower bound?
The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms

Revised June 2020


The impact of very low interest rates on bank profitability

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr-november-2019/the-impact-of-very-low-interest-rates-on-bank-profitability

Bank intermediation activity in a low interest rate environment

by Michael Brei, Claudio Borio and Leonardo Gambacorta

Monetary and Economic Department August 2019

Do Negative Interest Rates Explain Low Profitability of European Banks?1

Nicholas Coleman* and Viktors Stebunovs*

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/do-negative-interest-rates-explain-low-profitability-of-european-banks-20191129.htm

Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates1

Miguel Ampudia2 and Skander J. Van den Heuvel3 May 2019

Negative Interest Rates, Bank Profitability and Risk-taking

Whelsy Boungou

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334528681_Negative_Interest_Rates_Bank_Profitability_and_Risk-taking

Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment: A Follow-up and a Rejoinder

By Charles Goodhart and Ali Kabiri

Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Carlo Altavilla, Miguel Boucinha and José-Luis Peydró

Barcelona GSE Working Paper: 1101 | May 2019

https://www.barcelonagse.eu/research/working-papers/monetary-policy-and-bank-profitability-low-interest-rate-environment

Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

Mauricio Ulate Campos Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

September 2019

NEGATIVE NOMINAL INTEREST RATES AND THE BANK LENDING CHANNEL

Gauti B. Eggertsson Ragnar E. Juelsrud Lawrence H. Summers Ella Getz Wold

Working Paper 25416

Implications of negative interest rates for the net interest margin and lending of euro area banks

Melanie Klein

Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer

https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/11/30/negative-nominal-interest-rates-a-primer

Trends in the Noninterest Income of Banks

Joseph G. Haubrich and Tristan Young

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2019-economic-commentaries/ec-201914-trends-in-the-noninterest-income-of-banks.aspx

Negative interest rates in the euro area: does it hurt banks?

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/negative-interest-rates-in-the-euro-area-does-it-hurt-banks_d3227540-en

Interest rate pass-through in the low interest rate environment

Average net interest margin of banks in the United States from 1995 to 2019

https://www.statista.com/statistics/210869/net-interest-margin-for-all-us-banks/

Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/obfrinfo

How low interest rates can hurt competition, and the economy

They help big companies more than small ones, depressing investment and productivity

https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2019/article/how-low-interest-rates-can-hurt-competition-and-economy

Monetary Policy Report

June 12, 2020

Federal Reserve

The Long Decline of Global Interest Rates

Posted On :  Published By : BER staff

GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT:

Markets in the Time of COVID-19

Chapter 4

April 2020

IMF

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2020/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2020

Low Interest Rates and Bank Profits

Katherine Di Lucido, Anna Kovner, and Samantha Zeller

Liberty Street Economics

2017

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/06/low-interest-rates-and-bank-profits.html

Bank’s Non-Interest Income to Total Income for United States (DDEI03USA156NWDB)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDEI03USA156NWDB

Net Interest Income for Commercial Banks in United States

Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks (USNIM)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USNIM

Commercial Banks in the U.S. (USNUM)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USNUM

Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTLL)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTLL

Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTBKCR)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR

Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BUSLOANS

Consumer Credit

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/101

Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks (REALLN)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REALLN

Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks (CONSUMER)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CONSUMER

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments – Update October 2020

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments – Update October 2020

There has been several new research on the topic of Low Interest Rates and Business Investments since my last post.

Decision Making by Firms in Low Interest rates environment

  • Invest and Grow
  • Merge / Consolidate
  • Pay Dividends
  • Buyback Shares
  • Divestures
  • Acquisitions
  • Horizontal Mergers (Market Share)
  • Vertical Mergers (Costs)
  • Innovation M&A (New Tech, New Product)

Key Terms

  • Business Investments
  • Monetary Polcy
  • Zero Lower Bound
  • Interest Rates
  • Fed Funds Rate
  • Corporate Finance
  • Hurdle Rates
  • Capital Budgeting
  • Internal Rate of Return IRR
  • CAGR Compond Annual Growth Rate
  • Cost of Capital
  • Discounted Cash Flow
  • Net Present Value
  • Mergers vs Investments
  • Organic Growth
  • Inorganic Growth
  • State of the Industry
  • State of the Economy
  • Liquidity Financial
  • Bank Lending
  • Capital Markets
  • Economic Growth
  • Corporate Planning
  • Strategic Planning
  • Strategic Management

My Related Posts

Increasing Market Concentration in USA: Update April 2019

Rising Market Concentration and Declining Business Investments in the USA – Update June 2018

Low Interest Rates and Business Investments : Update August 2017

Business Investments and Low Interest Rates

Cash and Investments: Corporate Savings Glut in USA

Low Interest Rates and Monetary Policy Effectiveness

Low Interest Rates and Risk taking channel of Monetary Policy

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Low Interest Rates and Bank’s Profitability – Update May 2019

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability : Update July 2017

Low Interest Rates and Banks Profitability: Update – December 2016

Impact of Low Interest Rates on Bank’s Profitability

The Decline in Long Term Real Interest Rates

Cash and Investments: Corporate Savings Glut in USA

Why do Firms buyback their Shares? Causes and Consequences.

Short term Thinking in Investment Decisions of Businesses and Financial Markets

Key Sources of Reserach

Lengthy era of rock-bottom interest rates leaving its mark on U.S. economy

Weak demand in U.S. and other rich nations explains historic shift

Washington Post

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/03/low-interest-rates/

Do Interest Rates Affect Business Investment? Evidence from Australian Company-level Data

Jonathan Hambur and Gianni La Cava

Low Interest Rates Have Benefits … and Costs

Kevin L. Kliesen

October 1, 2010

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2010/low-interest-rates-have-benefits–and-costs

Low for Long?
Causes and Consequences of Persistently Low Interest Rates

Geneva Reports on the World Economy 17 Charles Bean

London School of Economics and CEPR

Christian Broda

Duquesne Capital Management

Takatoshi Ito

SIPA Columbia University and CEPR

Randall Kroszner

Booth School of Business, University of Chicago

2015

Low Interest Rates, Market Power, and Productivity Growth∗

Ernest Liu

Princeton University

Atif Mian
Princeton University and NBER

Amir Sufi
University of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER

August 18, 2020

The Economic Effects of Low Interest Rates and Unconventional Monetary Policy

17 September 2020

Rochelle Guttmann, Dana Lawson and Peter Rickards

RBA

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/sep/the-economic-effects-of-low-interest-rates-and-unconventional-monetary-policy.html

Firms’ Investment Decisions and Interest Rates

Kevin Lane and Tom Rosewall

RBA

Has Business Fixed Investment Really Been Unusually Low?

By François Gourio

Chicago Fed Letter, No. 418, 2019

https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/chicago-fed-letter/2019/418

Fiscal Policy with High Debt and Low Interest Rates

William Gale

July 1, 2019

The impact of negative interest rates on banks and firms 

Carlo Altavilla, Lorenzo Burlon, Mariassunta Giannetti, Sarah Holton  

08 November 2019

https://voxeu.org/article/impact-negative-interest-rates-banks-and-firms

Global Trends in Interest Rates

Marco Del Negro Domenico Giannone Marc P. Giannoni Andrea Tambalotti

Staff Report No. 866 September 2018

Financial stability implications of a prolonged period of low interest rates

Report submitted by a Working Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was co-chaired by Ulrich Bindseil (European Central Bank) and Steven B Kamin (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

July 2018

BIS

Eight centuries of global real interest rates, R-G, and the ‘suprasecular’ decline, 1311-2018.

Paul Schmelzing

https://economics.rutgers.edu/downloads-hidden-menu/news-and-events/workshops/money-history-and-finance/1823-paulschmelzing/file

Low Interest Rates and Risk Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions

Review of Financial Studies

49 Pages Posted: 14 Jul 2016 Last revised: 29 Aug 2018

Chen Lian

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)

Yueran Ma

University of Chicago – Booth School of Business

Carmen Wang

Harvard University – Department of Economics; HBS Negotiations, Organizations and Markets Unit

Date Written: August 22, 2018

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2809191

MONETARY POLICY, CORPORATE FINANCE AND INVESTMENT

James Cloyne Clodomiro Ferreira Maren Froemel Paolo Surico

Determinants of the real interest rate

Remarks by Philip R. Lane, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the National Treasury Management Agency

Dublin, 28 November 2019

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2019/html/ecb.sp191128_1~de8e7283e6.en.html

Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles∗

Nicolas Crouzet and Janice Eberly

Prepared for the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

August 23 – 25, 2018 This version: May 14, 2019

Monetary policy in advanced economies

Low policy rates are here to stay

https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/economy/monetary-policy-low-interest-rates-advanced-economies.html

Have low interest rates led to excessive risk taking?

https://www.aeaweb.org/forum/311/have-low-interest-rates-led-to-excessive-risk-taking

The Policy Perils of Low Interest Rates

The consequences of prolonged low interest rates in Europe

https://www.gisreportsonline.com/the-consequences-of-prolonged-low-interest-rates-in-europe,economy,2465.html