Frames, Framing and Reframing

Frames, Framing and Reframing

Sources: Locating Frames in the Discursive Universe

Scholars from a range of disciplines use the term ‘frame’ to mean a variety of disjointed and incompatible concepts. This paper examines a range of framing literature, from the writings of authors including Erving Goffman, Tuen van Dijk, Serge Moscovici, George Lakoff, Alan Johnson, William Gamson, David Snow, Robert Benford and Paolo Donati. Then it develops the theoretical case for defining frames as semi-structured elements of discourse which people use to make sense of information they encounter. Additionally, this paper demonstrates the need to include social system frames, which provide patterns for understanding social relations, among the presently acknowledged frame types. Frames develop in parallel with language, vary across cultures, and shape, but are distinct from other extra-linguistic discourse forms, including myths and ideologies.

Sources: Frames and Their Consequences

The concept of framing has been used to capture these diverse processes by scholars of the media (Gitlin 1980; Carragee and Woefs 2004), international relations (Bernstein 2002; Berejekian 1997), decisionmaking (Kahneman and Tversky 1986), policymaking (Schon and Rein 1994), and social movements.

Key Terms

  • Mental Models
  • World Views
  • Perspectives
  • Narratives
  • Retrospective Narrative
  • Multi Valent Logic
  • AnteNarrative
  • Law of Requisite Variety
  • Problem Structuring Methods
  • Drama
  • Scenarios
  • Dialectics
  • Meta Theater
  • Lenses
  • System in Focus
  • Focal Point
  • Boundaries
  • Inclusion and Exclusion
  • Frames
  • Framing
  • Reframing
  • Frames Rejected
  • Frames Accepted
  • Multi Perspectivism
  • Multiple Frames
  • Arguments
  • Biases and Prejudices
  • Counterfactuals (for past events)
  • What Ifs
  • Ideology
  • Mindset
  • Script
  • Preferences
  • Selection
  • Self Interest
  • Agenda
  • Why, What and How of a Narrative
  • Frame the Domain
  • Point of View
  • Field of Vision
  • Histories and Plots
  • Frame the issue

David Boje’s Dramatic Septet

David Boje expanded Kenneth Burke’s dramatic pentad to include Rhythms and Frames.

What are Frames?

Source: Critical Dramaturgical Analysis of Enron Antenarratives and Metatheatre

Source: Critical Dramaturgical Analysis of Enron Antenarratives and Metatheatre

Frames, Framing and Reframing

By
Sanda Kaufman
Michael Elliott
Deborah Shmueli

Original Publication September 2003

What Frames Are

Frames are cognitive shortcuts that people use to help make sense of complex information. Frames help us to interpret the world around us and represent that world to others. They help us organize complex phenomena into coherent, understandable categories. When we label a phenomenon, we give meaning to some aspects of what is observed, while discounting other aspects because they appear irrelevant or counter-intuitive. Thus, frames provide meaning through selective simplification, by filtering people’s perceptions and providing them with a field of vision for a problem.

Frames can significantly affect the intractability of a conflict by creating mutually incompatible interpretations of events. Because frames are built upon underlying structures of beliefs, values, and experiences, disputants often construct frames that differ in significant ways. A simple example is attitudes towards abortion in the US.  “Pro-life” advocates believe abortion is murder of an innocent, unborn child which has as much right to live as anyone else–thus they see the fetus as a person, and abortion as a willful act that murders a person. “Pro-choice” advocates, however, do not see the fetus as a “person” with human rights–not until it becomes “viable” outside the womb, at any rate.  Before then, they focus on the rights of the mother, asserting that she should have ultimate control and “choice” about her medical decisions and what happens to her body.

Frames often exist prior to conscious processing of information for decision-making[1] and affect subsequent individual decisions.[2] Thus, disputants are separated not only by differences in interests, beliefs, and values, but also in how they perceive and understand the world, both at a conscious and pre-conscious level.[3]  

Framing involves both the construction of interpretive frames and their representation to others. Disputants may use framing not only as an aid to interpreting events, but also to promote strategic advantage.[4] Framing can be useful for rationalizing self-interest, convincing a broader audience, building coalitions, or lending preferentiality to specific outcomes. As such, many factors affect how people frame a conflict, which, in turn, influences the direction the conflict takes.[5]

This essay explores the nature of frames and the framing process. It seeks to

  • clarify the basic concepts,
  • present an overview of what is known about frames and framing and their impact on conflict dynamics,
  • explore the forms of framing that are most significant to intractable conflicts,
  • examine the potential for reframing and frame changes as part of a process of reconciliation or conflict resolution, and
  • direct the reader to other web- and print-based resources that can provide more detail.
Definitions

Differing conceptual frames held by the parties involved in a dispute form the basis on which they act. Each party to a conflict has its own perception and understanding of their agenda, the relevance of various issues, their priorities, and the opportunities and risks involved with different choices. This assemblage of factors can be considered as a set of lenses, or filters, through which the various parties view the conflict, and is called the frame or conceptual frame.

In the English language, the word “frame” can be used both as a verb (to frame) or as a noun (a frame). As a noun, frame denotes the boundary within which the whole picture is displayed (similar to a frame placed around a picture or painting), and is used as a tool for interpreting and understanding the perceptions and underlying objectives of the various actors in the conflict. As a verb, framing refers to the creation of frames, either from a simple reading of the situation or through a deliberative, analytic, or strategic process.

The concept of frames has been developed as a tool for analysis in various fields, including psychology and sociology,[6] business management,[7] artificial intelligence,[8] decision-making,[9] negotiation,[10] and environmental conflict management.[11] Relevant to understanding intractable conflict are definitions given by such scholars as Minsky,[12] Tannen,[13] and Gray,[14] for whom frames are “cognitive structures held in memory and used to guide interpretation of new experience.” Furthermore, “parties rely on these mental structures to interpret or make sense of ongoing events.”[15] Frames are also defined as “collections of perceptions and thoughts that people use to define a situation, organize information, and determine what is important and what is not.”[16] We create frames to name a situation in which we find ourselves, to identify and interpret specific aspects that seem key to us in understanding the situation, and to communicate that interpretation to others.[17]

Why are Frames Important?

An essential element in conflict resolution is an understanding of how frames affect conflict development. In the context of a conflict, we create frames to help us understand why the conflict exists, what actions are important to the conflict, why the parties act as they do, and how we should act in response.[18] During the evolution of a conflict, frames act as sieves through which information is gathered and analyzed, positions are determined (including priorities, means, and solutions), and action plans developed. Depending on the context, frames may be used to conceptualize and interpret, or to manipulate and convince.

Putnam and Holmer[19] hold that framing and reframing are vital to the negotiationprocess and are tied to information processing, message patterns, linguistic cues, and socially constructed meanings. Knowing what types of frames are in use and how they are constructed allows one to draw conclusions about how they affect the development of a conflict, and can be used to influence it. Thus, analyzing the frames people use in a given conflict provides fresh insight and better understanding of the conflict dynamics and development. With such insight, and with the help of reframing, stakeholders may find new ways to reach agreements.

The Sources and Forms of Frames

Many factors influence frames and their formation. Intractable disputes are usually associated with a complex and reinforcing set of frames about oneself, the “others,” risks, what information should apply to the situation, and how decisions should be made. The frames of most importance to intractability usually include identity, characterization, power, conflict management/process, risk/information, and loss versus gain. Their forms and most common sources are as follows:

  • Identity frames: Disputants view themselves as having particular identities in the context of specific conflict situations.[20] These identities spring from the individuals’ self-conception and group affiliations. One might frame oneself as a Hutu or a Tutsi, a Muslim or a Christian, a man or a woman, or a Republican or Democrat.  The more central the challenge to one’s sense of self, the more oppositional one is likely to act. Typical responses to threats to identity include ignoring information and perspectives that threaten the core identity, reinforcing affiliations with like-minded individuals and groups, and negatively characterizing outsiders.
  • Characterization frames: Disputants view others in the conflict as having particular characteristics. Closely related to stereotyping, characterization frames may be either positive or negative. Parties to intractable conflicts often construct characterization frames for others that significantly differ from how the other parties view themselves. Such characterizations often undermine the others’ legitimacy, cast doubt on their motivations, or exploit their sensitivity. For example, many Americans characterize Al Queda as “terrorists,” yet they most certainly do not see themselves that way.  Rather, they see themselves as freedom-fighters, or jihadi warriors fighting for the protection of Islam.  Characterization frames are also often linked to identity frames, serving to strengthen one’s own identity while justifying your actions toward the other (e.g., for me to be a liberator, my opponent must be an oppressor).
  • Power frames: Because intractable conflicts are often imbedded in struggles to alter existing institutions or decision-making procedures, disputants’ conceptions of power and social control play a significant role in conflict dynamics. Power frames help the disputant determine not only which forms of power are legitimate (e.g., governmental, legal, civil disobedience) but also the forms of power that are likely to advance one’s own position (e.g., authority, resources, expertise, coalition-building, threat, voice). For instance, some people may see money as the best way to “buy influence,” while other people might rely more on technical expertise or personal charisma to sway people’s views..
  • Conflict management or process frames: Conflict over how best to manage or resolve differences is central to many intractable disputes. Depending on disputants’ identity, characterization of other disputants, perceived power, and perception of the available options, conflict frames may impel parties to seek very different remedies in response to common problems. These remedies may range from actions as disparate as violence, civil disobedience, litigation, and negotiation. Because of the wide complexity of possible actions and the uncertainty of their consequences, groups with shared interests and values may draw significantly different conclusions as to the best course of action within a particular dispute..One side, for instance, may be willing to sit down with a mediator and negotiate, while the other, thinking that it has the upper hand, may refuse negotiation, preferring litigation or violent action.
  • Risk and information frames: Intractable disputes often involve expectations about future events, in which the events are risky and the likelihood of the events occurring is uncertain.[21] In such conditions, disputants often construct risk and information frames that yield highly variable assessments about the level and extent of a particular risk. Additionally, these frames indicate to the disputant which sources of information are reliable and which are not. Risk and information frames depend not just on the disputant’s interests, but also on the disputant’s training, expertise, level of exposure to the risk, familiarity with the risk, potential for catastrophic impacts associated with the risk, and degree to which the risk is dreaded. People who are used to working and traveling in war-torn areas, for example, have a far different assessment of the risks of such activities than people who don’t do that (who thus are more likely to see the risk of doing so to be unacceptably high). Likewise, engineers who understand the technical aspects of hydraulic fracturing (fracking) are likely to access the risks of that process differently than “ordinary” people who live near the wells who have read popular media stories about the dangers of fracking–but also differently from the people working on the wells who simply want a job, and are much less worried about the impacts of their work than on the money it puts in their pockets.
  • Loss versus gain framesIn intractable disputes, it is common for most parties to the conflict to focus on threats of potential loss rather than on opportunities for gains. People tend to react differently to a proposed action when its expected consequences are framed in terms of losses as opposed to gains, where preventing a perceived loss is often more salient and more highly valued than capturing a commensurate gain.[22] Going back to the fracking example mentioned above, psychology tells us that most people are more likely to focus on the dangers of fracking (the potential loss of safe drinking water, clean habitat, and quiet) to be more significant than the gains that can be obtained from fracking–reduced reliance on foreign oil, and improved economy, and more jobs.

Many other types of frames can be constructed, but these six categories stand out as particularly applicable to intractable disputes.

Reframing

Within processes of reconciliationnegotiation, or joint problem solving, the explicit management of frames, and the framing process may lead to important shifts in both the frames themselves and in their impact on the conflict dynamics. This purposive management of frames is called reframing. Use of frame analysis and reframing processes have the following goals:

  • to clarify or “refresh” the perception of the issues in dispute (in order to promote more productive information exchange and listening to ideas not previously considered, and to expand the framework of discussion and explore means of action or solutions not yet attempted);
  • to sharpen the parties’ understanding of their interests and how the modes of action they have chosen serve those interests (in order to examine potential processes for managing conflict more productively and to reconsider patterns of relationships among stakeholders);
  • to identify those subjects which the involved parties view differently, even when the basis for the divergent frames are more fully understood (in order to identify opportunities for trade-offs based on clearly understood differences); and
  • to identify differences which cannot be bridged (in order to more fully appreciate conflict dynamics and to evaluate the potential for conflict reduction processes that do not violate these intractable differences, to determine the degree of importance attributed to these intractable differences in frames, and to seek ways to address them).

Thus, reframing, stemming from stakeholders’ understanding of their own as well as others’ expressed frames, may pave ways for resolving, or at least better managing, a dispute.

Framing diagram

Figure 1: Frames and their role in conflict development

Figure 1 illustrates the roles frames and framing play in the dynamics of conflict development. It demonstrates how a frame change (or reframing) may cause a shift in conflict development, towards conflict management and/or resolution. Types of frame categories are numerous and coined differently by researchers in various fields. The categories cited in this diagram are: substance (reframing that affects how one views the world today or potential future states of the world), process (reframing that affects how one interacts with others in the dispute), values (reframing that allows parties to clarify the relationship between values and interests for both themselves and for other parties), and phrasing (the language used by disputants to communicate with one other).

Frame Analysis and Reframing as Conflict Management Tools

Frame analysis can be used by both third party interveners and by individual stakeholders and conveners to better understand conflict dynamics. Frame analysis has been used both retrospectively (to understand past conflicts) and prospectively (as a tool for better managing an existing conflict). Retrospectively, it seeks to better understand conflict dynamics in order to glean lessons for the future. Prospectively, it advances consensus building in both the conflict assessments and intervention stages.

Analytic techniques for frame analysis include interviewing the various stakeholders to ascertain their perceptions and interpretations, feeding back to the parties the resulting analysis, and then exploring with the parties the meaning and impact of these frames on the conflict dynamics. Particularly within the framework of conflict assessments, [23] frame analysis and the resulting understanding of frames can help the stakeholders to better grasp the conflict, including the factors and contexts that can lead to changes within a frame or changes to the frames themselves. In this sense, framing becomes a formative analytic technique.

In intractable conflicts, frames are often quite stable over time, even when specific individuals move in and out of the conflict. This stability comes both because various frames held by an individual tend to be self reinforcing, and because frames are often shared within a community and therefore are socially reinforced through story-telling and shared perspectives. Yet research into intractable conflicts suggests that in at least some conflicts, frames can be altered over time through intentional interventions, and that the shift in frames helps to render disputes more tractable.[24]

At the same time, research shows that reframing is often not easy for parties. It requires taking on new perspectives, and often requires some degree of risk-taking on the part of the parties. As such, reframing works best when changes in the context of the dispute can be made, such that incentives to consider new perspectives increase, or in the context of careful and constructive dialogue, with a strong focus on improving communication and building trust.

A number of strategies and techniques exist in the use of dialogue to reframe intractable conflicts. These include:[25]

  • Reducing tension and promoting the de-escalation of hostility: by using techniques such as listening projects, study circles, and some forms of mediation which seek to reduce tension by creating forums that promote more effective communication around a set of limited objectives. The forums focus explicitly on improving communication and reducing escalatory cycles that are often associated with mutually-incompatible frames.
  • Perspective taking: techniques such as acknowledging critical identities, imaging of identities and characterizations, narrative forums, and listening circles allow disputants to understand the conflict and its dynamics from the perspective of other disputants. These approaches are particularly geared toward better understanding of identity and characterization frames, in order to see oneself more objectively and the other party in a more positive light. They seek to enable disputants to see the potential validity and credibility of other perspectives, and to examine the interplay between one’s own frames and those of other disputants.
  • Establishing a common ground as a basis for agreement: by using techniques such as visioning exercises and common-ground search processes which enable reframing around a smaller set of issues. Common ground processes are used in highly divisive issues (such as abortion and ethnic disputes) and seek to explore areas of agreement and possible joint action between parties who normally focus on their differences, in order to open up communication between the parties. Search processes seek to identify desired futures in order to shift the focus from a short-term perspective to a long-term one.
  • Enhancing the desirability of options and alternatives: Several approaches exist that may enhance the desirability of alternative options when presented to parties with divergent frames. For a disputant to examine options from the perspective of other parties, he or she must understand the other parties’ frames, and be able to view options from other perspectives. Third-party interveners are often helpful in this regard. In addition, seeking to reframe perceptions of losses as gains can enhance the openness and creativity of parties to a dispute.
Conclusion

Frames play a significant role in perpetuating intractable conflict. As lenses through which disputants interpret conflicts, frames limit the clarity of communication and the quality of information, as well as instigate escalatory processes. These frames, imbedded in personal, social, and institutional roles, are often quite stable over time, even through the ebb and flow of many dispute episodes. As such, they contribute to the intractability of the conflict. In addition, frames interact, often in ways that tend to reinforce the stability of other frames. Yet, in at least some intractable conflicts, changes in the context of the dispute or purposive interventions designed to alter frames have led to reframing that, in turn, has increased the tractability of the conflict. Strategies to accomplish this reframing include frame analysis and the construction of forums designed to enhance communication, understanding, and trust.


[1] Gray, B. and A. Donnellon, 1989. “An Interactive Theory of Reframing in Negotiation,” unpublished manuscript. Pennsylvania State University, College of Business Administration.

[2] Sheppard, B.H., K. Blumenfeld-Jones and J.W. Minton, 1987. “To control or not to control: Two models of conflict intervention,” unpublished manuscript sited in Pinkley, 1990).

[3] Elliott, M., Gray, B., & Lewicki, R., 2003. Lessons learned about the framing of intractable environmental conflicts. In R. Lewicki, B. Gray, & M. Elliott (Eds.), Making sense of intractable environmental conflicts: Concepts and cases (pp. 409-436), Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

[4] Kaufman, S. and J. Smith, 1999. “Framing and Reframing in Land Use Change Conflicts,” Journal of Architectural and Planning Research, Vol.16, no.2, Summer, pp. 164-180.

[5] Elliott, M., Kaufman, S., Gardner, R., and Burgess, G., 2002. “Teaching conflict Assessment and frame analysis through interactive web-based simulations ” The International Journal of Conflict Management, 13:4, pp. 320-340.

[6] e.g. Taylor , D.E., 2000. “The Rise of the Environmental Justice Paradigm. Injustice Framing and the Social Construction of Environmental Discourses,” American Behavioral Scientist. 43 (4), pp. 508-580; and Gonos, G., 1997. “Situation” versus “frame”: The “interactionist” and the “structualist” analyses of everyday life,” American Sociological Review, 42, pp. 854-867.

[7] Watzlawick, P., J. Weakland, and R. Fisch, 1974. Change, Principles of Problem Formation and Problem Resolution, Norton & Company, Inc.; and Goldratt, E.M., 1990. What is this thing called Theory of Constraints and how should it be implemented?, Corton-on-Hudson, NY: North River Press, Inc.

[8] e.g., Minsky, M., 1975. “A Framework for Representing Knowledge,” in Winston, P.H.( Ed.), The Psychology of Computer Vision, New York, NY: McGraw Hill, pp. 177-211.

[9] e.g., Kahneman, D. and A. Tversky, 1979. “Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk, Econometrica 47, pp. 263-289.

[10] e.g., Neale, M.A. and M.H. Bazerman, 1985. “The Effects of Framing and Negotiator Overconfidence on Bargaining Behaviors and Outcomes,” Academy of Management Journal 28, pp. 34-49; Gray, B., 1989. Collaborating: Finding Common Ground for Multiparty Problems, San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass Inc. Publication; and Pinkley, R.L., 1990. “Dimensions of Conflict Frame: Disputant Interpretations of Conflict,” Journal of Applied Psychology 75, pp. 117-126.

[11] Lewicki, R., Gray, B., & Elliott, M., 2003. Making sense of intractable environmental conflicts: Concepts and cases, Washington, D.C.: Island Press; Kaufman and Smith, 1999, op cit.; and Vaughan, E. and M. Seifert, 1992. “Variability in the Framing of Risk Issues,” Journal of Social Issues 48 (4), pp. 119-135.

[12] Minsky, 1975, op cit. 

[13] Tannen, D., 1979. “What’s in a Frame? Surface Evidence of Underlying Expectations,” In Freedle, R. (ed.), New Dimensions in Discourse Processes, Norwood, NJ: Albex, pp. 137-181.

[14] Gray, B., 1997. “Framing and Reframing of Intractable Environmental Disputes,” in Lewicki, R., R. Bies, and B. Sheppard (Eds.), Research on Negotiation in Organizations, 6, p. 171.

[15] Gray 1997, ibid.

[16] Lewicki, R, Saunders, D, and Minton, J., 1999. Negotiation. Burr Ridge, IL: McGraw-Hill Higher Education.

[17] Buechler, S., 2000. Social movements in advanced Capitalism. New York: Oxford University Press.

[18] Gray, B., 2003. Framing of environmental disputes. In R. Lewicki, B. Gray, & M. Elliott (Eds.), Making sense of intractable environmental conflicts: Concepts and cases (pp. 11-34), Washington, D.C.: Island Press.

[19] Putnam, L. and M. Holmer, 1992. “Framing, Reframing, and Issue Development”, in Putnam L. and Roloff, M.E. (Eds.), Communication and Negotiation, Newbury Park, CA: Sage, Vol. 20. pp.128-155.

[20] Rothman, J., 1997. Resolving Identity-Based Conflict in Nations, Organizations, and Communities, San Francisco, CA: Jossey-Bass Publishers.

[21] Heimer, C.A., 1988. “Social Structures, Psychology and the Estimation of Risk,” Annual Review of Sociology 14, pp. 491-519.

[22] Kahneman & Tverski, 1979, op cit.; Tversky, A. and D. Kahneman, 1981. “The Framing of Decisions and the Psychology of Choice,” Science 211, pp. 453-458; Schweitzer , M.E. and L.A. DeChurch, 2001. “Linking Frames in Negotiations: Gains, Losses and Conflict Frame Adoption.” International Journal of Conflict Management, Vol. 12 No. 2, pp. 100-113.

[23] Shmueli, D. and M. Ben Gal, 2000. “Reframing of Protracted Environmental Disputes”, interim report to the Israeli Ministry of Environment, March (Hebrew); Shmueli, D. and M. Ben Gal, 2001. “Conflict Assessment to Promote Dialogue between the Stakeholders involved in the Dispute Surrounding the Treatment and Discharge of Industrial Wastes in the Lower Kishon Basin,” draft June, final November (Hebrew); and Shmueli, D. and M. Ben Gal, forthcoming. “The Potential of Framing in Managing and Resolving Environmental Conflict.” In E. Feitelson, G. de Roo and D. Miller (Eds.), Advancing Sustainability at the Sub-National Level, Ashgate Press.

[24] Elliott, M., Gray, B., & Lewicki, R., 2003. Lessons learned about the framing of intractable environmental conflicts. In R. Lewicki, B. Gray, & M. Elliott (Eds.), Making sense of intractable environmental conflicts: Concepts and cases (pp. 409–436), Washington, D.C.: Island Press at 420.

[25] ibid, at 425-434.

What is Framed?

  • Situations
  • Attributes
  • Choices
  • Actions
  • Issues
  • Responsibility
  • News

Source: Seven Models of Framing: Implications for Public Relations


Frame Development, Generation, and Elaboration

Source: FRAMING PROCESSES AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: An Overview and Assessment

  • Discursive Processes
  • Strategic Processes
  • Contested Processes
Strategic Processes

Source: FRAMING PROCESSES AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: An Overview and Assessment

  • Frame Bridging,
  • Frame Amplification,
  • Frame Extension,
  • Frame Transformation.

Contested Processes in Social Movements

Source: FRAMING PROCESSES AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: An Overview and Assessment

There is widespread agreement among movement framing researchers that the development, generation, and elaboration of collective action frames are contested processes. All actors within the collective action arena who engage in this reality construction work are embroiled in the politics of signification. This means that activists are not able to construct and impose on their intended targets any version of reality they would like; rather there are a variety of challenges confronting all those who engage in movement framing activities. Thus far the literature elaborates on three forms these challenges tend to take: counterframing by movement opponents, bystanders, and the media; frame disputes within movements; and the dialectic between frames and events.

Frames and Scenarios

How are Frames related to Scenario Planning?

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Victor Turner’s Postmodern Theory of Social Drama

Erving Goffman: Dramaturgy of Social Life

Kenneth Burke and Dramatism

Truth, Beauty, and Goodness: Integral Theory of Ken Wilber

Dialogs and Dialectics

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Narrative, Rhetoric and Possible Worlds

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

Strategy | Strategic Management | Strategic Planning | Strategic Thinking

Networks, Narratives, and Interaction

Levels of Human Psychological Development in Integral Spiral Dynamics

Key Sources of Research

Framing (Social Sciences)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framing_(social_sciences)

Frames and Their Consequences

Francesca Polletta and M. Kai Ho

Click to access 2006%20polletta%20and%20ho%20frames%20and%20their%20consequences.pdf

“Finding frames in a web of culture: The case of the War on Terror,”

Stephen Reese,

in P. D’Angelo and J. Kuypers (eds.) Doing News Framing Analysis: Empirical, Theoretical, and Normative Perspectives (New York: Routledge, 2009).

Locating Frames in the Discursive Universe

K. Fisher

First Published September 1, 1997 

Sociological Research Online

Vol 2, Issue 3, 1997

https://doi.org/10.5153/sro.78

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.5153/sro.78

Seven Models of Framing: Implications for Public Relations

Kirk Hallahan

Department of Journalism and Technical Communication Colorado State University

JOURNAL OF PUBLIC RELATIONS RESEARCH, 11(3), 205–242 Copyright © 1999, Lawrence Erlbaum Associates, Inc.

FRAMING THEORY

Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci. 2007. 10:103–26 doi: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.103054

Dennis Chong and James N. Druckman

Department of Political Science, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois 60208; email: dchong@northwestern.edu; druckman@northwestern.edu

https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/full/10.1146/annurev.polisci.10.072805.103054

Frames, Framing and Reframing


Sanda Kaufman
Michael Elliott
Deborah Shmueli

Original Publication September 2003, updated in June, 2013 and again in June, 2017 by Heidi Burgess

https://www.beyondintractability.org/essay/framing

Reframing Organizations: Artistry, Choice and Leadership, 

Bolman, L. G., and Deal, T. E. 

7th ed., expected September, 2021.

https://sites.google.com/site/reframingorganizations1/home

FRAMING PROCESSES AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS: An Overview and Assessment

Robert D. Benford

Department of Sociology, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, Nebraska 68588-0324; e-mail: Rbenford1@unl.edu

David A. Snow

Department of Sociology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721; e-mail: snowd@u.arizona.edu

Annu. Rev. Sociol. 2000. 26:611–39

Documentary Impact: Social Change Through Storytelling

Five Framing Tips: Framing for Social Change

Nat Kendall-Taylor , Allison Stevens

PublishedJune 4, 2019

FrameWorks UK

https://www.frameworksinstitute.org/article/five-framing-tips-framing-for-social-change/

FUNDAMENTAL FRAMES: HOW CULTURAL FRAMES INFORM THE FOURTEENTH AMENDMENT

ANDERS WALKER

From theatrics to metatheatre: The Enron Drama

David Boje

https://davidboje.com/vita/pub/index.html

https://business.nmsu.edu/~dboje/theatrics/7/

LIFE IMITATES ART

Enron’s Epic and Tragic Narration

DAVID M. BOJE

GRACE ANN ROSILE 

New Mexico State University

Dramatic Septet

David Boje

https://business.nmsu.edu/~dboje/septet/

Critical Dramaturgical Analysis of Enron Antenarratives and Metatheatre

David M. Boje

New Mexico State University

July 10, 2002; July 31, 2002 version

https://business.nmsu.edu/~dboje/papers/ENRON_critical_dramaturgical_analysis.htm

Enron Metatheatre:

A Critical Dramaturgy Analysis of Enron�s Quasi-Objects

David M. Boje, New Mexico State University

Paper presented at the Networks, Quasi-Objects, and Identity: Reintegrating Humans, Technology, and Nature session of Denver Academy of Management Meetings. Tuesday August 13, 2002. http://business.nmsu.edu/~dboje/  Revision Date: August 9 2002.

https://business.nmsu.edu/~dboje/papers/enron_theatre_LJM.htm

Frame Analysis

Erving Goffman

Framers: Human Advantage in an Age of Technology and Turmoil

Book by Francis de Véricourt, Kenneth Cukier, and Viktor Mayer-Schönberger

2021

A Dialectic Perspective on the Organization Theatre Metaphor

David M. Boje, John T. Luhman, & Ann L. Cunliffe

American Communication Journal

Volume 6, Issue 2, Winter 2003

Doing A Boje: Using Dramaturgical Analysis In Critical Management Studies

Stream 4: Theatrics of Capitalism

Alexis Downs

Adrian N. Carr

From theatrics to metatheatre: The Enron Drama.

Boje, D. M.; Hansen, Hans; & Rosile, Grace Ann.

2007.

Revue Sciences do Gestion, Management Sciences, no 58, p63-83.

Social Movements and the Dramatic Framing of Social Reality

  • January 2013
  • In book: The Drama of Social Life: A Dramaturgical Sourcebook (pp.139-155)
  • Chapter: 9
  • Publisher: Ashgate
  • Editors: Charles Edgley

Robert D Benford

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/296333275_Social_Movements_and_the_Dramatic_Framing_of_Social_Reality

Frame Analysis

WIKI

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frame_analysis

THE EMERGENCE, DEVELOPMENT, AND FUTURE OF THE FRAMING PERSPECTIVE: 25+ YEARS SINCE “FRAME ALIGNMENT”*

David A. Snow, Robert D. Benford, Holly J. McCammon, Lyndi Hewitt, and Scott Fitzgerald

Ideology, Frame Resonance and Participant Mobilization

  • January 1988

Authors:

David Snow

Robert D Benford

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/285098685_Ideology_Frame_Resonance_and_Participant_Mobilization

Using Scenario Planning to reshape Strategy

Rafael Ramírez, Steve Churchhouse, Alejandra Palermo, and Jonas Hoffmann

June 13, 2017

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/using-scenario-planning-to-reshape-strategy/

Strategic Reframing

The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach

Rafael Ramírez and Angela Wilkinson

Print Length: 272 pages

Publisher: Oxford University Press

Publication Date: May 24, 2016

https://www.apf.org/blogpost/1784113/365221/Book-Review-Strategic-Reframing

https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198745693.001.0001/acprof-9780198745693

Our Scenario Approach

Center for Strategy and Scenario Planning

https://www.scenarioplanning.eu/our-scenario-approach

Scenario planning meets frame analysis: Using citizens’ frames as test conditions for policy measures

Petervan Wijcka

Bert Niemeijerbc

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0016328716000069

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292679294_Scenario_planning_meets_frame_analysis_Using_citizens%27_frames_as_test_conditions_for_policy_measures

The use and abuse of scenarios

November 1, 2009 

McKinsey

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-use-and-abuse-of-scenarios

Living in the Futures

From the Magazine (May 2013)

https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures

Scenarios: an Explorers Guide

Shell International

Luminosity and Chromaticity: On Light and Color

Luminosity and Chromaticity: On Light and Color

Key Terms and Ideas

  • Luminosity and Chromaticity
  • Light and Color
  • Diwali (Festival of Light) and Holi (Festival of Colors)
  • Rama and Krishna
  • Non Dual Vedanta and Trika Philosophy
  • 1 and 3
  • Verticalism and Horizontalism
  • Vedic and Tantric
  • Flute of Krishna and Shiva Jyotir Linga
  • Bow and Arrow of Ram
  • Ram Parivar and Shiv Parivar
  • Shiv Ratri
  • Plato and Aristotle
  • Sun, Moon, Earth and Mars
  • Rods and Cones in Retina
  • Color Temperature
  • Lok and Kosh
  • Seven Chakra
  • Trishool
  • Ram, Lakshman, Sita, Hanuman
  • Achromatic and Chromatic
  • Grey scale and Color Primaries
  • Mind and Moon
  • Moon and Emotions
  • Tone Circle
  • Color Circle
  • Pythagoras
  • 3 and 7
  • 137
  • 007
  • Prism
  • Seven Colors
  • 4 + 3 = 7
  • 4 x 3 = 12
  • Pentatonic
  • Heptatonic
  • Diatonic Scale
  • Chromatic Scale

Newton’s Color Circle

Source: http://winlab.rutgers.edu/~trappe/Courses/ImageVideoS06/MollonColorScience.pdf

Color Circle in Opticks of I.Newton

Source: Reprint of Opticks by Project Gutenberg

Color Sensation

Source: Understanding color & the in-camera image processing pipeline for computer vision

Electromagnetic Spectrum

Source: Notes for the course of Color Digital Image Processing

Color Temperature

Source: Understanding color & the in-camera image processing pipeline for computer vision

Color Temperatures of the Stars

Luminosity Function

Source: Understanding color & the in-camera image processing pipeline for computer vision

CIE 1931 XYZ

Source: Understanding color & the in-camera image processing pipeline for computer vision

Luminance

Source: Human Vision and Color

Brightness, Lightness,Hue, Saturation, and Luminosity

Source: The Brightness of Colour

Brightness has been defined as the perceived intensity of a visual stimulus, irrespective of its source. Lightness, on the other hand, is defined as the apparent brightness of an object relative to the object’s reflectance. Thus increasing the intensity of light falling on an object will increase its apparent brightness but not necessarily its apparent lightness, other things being equal [1]. Saturation is a measure of the spectral ‘‘purity’’ of a colour, and thus how different it is from a neutral, achromatic stimulus. Hue is the perception of how similar a stimulus is to red, green, blue etc. Luminous efficiency, or luminosity, measures the effect that light of different wavelengths has on the human visual system. It is a function of wavelength, usually written as V(l) [2], and is typically measured by rapidly alternating a pair of stimuli falling on the same area of the retina; the subject alters the physical radiance of one stimulus until the apparent flickering is minimised. Thus luminance is a measure of the intensity of a stimulus given the sensitivity of the human visual system, and so is integrated over wavelength [3]. Luminance is thought to be used by the brain to process motion, form and texture [4].

Clearly, brightness is monotonically related to luminance in the simplest case: the more luminant the stimulus is, the brighter it appears to be. However, the Helmholtz-Kohlrausch (HK) effect shows that the brightness of a stimulus is not a simple representation of luminance, since the brightness of equally luminant stimuli changes with their relative saturation (i.e. strongly coloured stimuli appear brighter than grey stimuli), and with shifts in the spectral distribution of the stimulus (e.g. ‘blues’ and ‘reds’ appear brighter than ‘greens’ and ‘yellows’ at equiluminance) [1; 5–6].

The HK effect has been measured in a variety of psychophysical studies [7–8] and is often expressed in terms of the (variable) ratio between brightness and luminance. 

Chromaticity

Source: Human Vision and Color

Human Eye

Source: Human Vision and Color

Human Retina

Source: Human Vision and Color

Rods and Cones Photoreceptors

Source: Human Vision and Color

Color Receptors

Source: Human Vision and Color

Tristimulus Color

Source: Color/CMU

Visual Sensitivity

Source: Human Vision https://people.cs.umass.edu/~elm/Teaching/ppt/691a/CV%20UNIT%20Light/691A_UNIT_Light_1.ppt.pdf

Light and Color (Photometry and Colorimetry) I

Source: Interactive Computer Graphics/UOMichigan

Light and Color (Photometry and Colorimetry) II

Source: Interactive Computer Graphics/UOMichigan

Two Types of Light Sensitive Cells

Source: Interactive Computer Graphics/UOMichigan

Cones and Rod Sensitivity

Source: Interactive Computer Graphics/UOMichigan

Distribution of Cones in Retina

Source: DIVERSE CELL TYPES, CIRCUITS, AND MECHANISMS FOR COLOR VISION IN THE VERTEBRATE RETINA

Types of Color Stimuli

Source: Perceiving Color. https://www.ics.uci.edu/~majumder/vispercep/chap5notes.pdf

Color Perception

Source: Perceiving Color. https://www.ics.uci.edu/~majumder/vispercep/chap5notes.pdf

CIE XYZ Model

Source: Human Vision and Color

Luminance and Chromaticity Space

Source: Understanding color & the in-camera image processing pipeline for computer vision

1931 CIE Chromaticity Chart

CIE 1931 Chromaticity Diagram

Source: Human Vision and Color

Source: Notes for the course of Color Digital Image Processing

Additive Colors

Source: Human Vision and Color

Subtractive Colors

Source: Human Vision and Color

Color Mixing

Source: Human Vision and Color

Color Appearance Models
  • RGB
  • CMY
  • CIE XYZ
  • CIE xyY
  • CIE LAB
  • Hunter LAB
  • CIE LUV
  • CIE LCH
  • HSB
  • HSV
  • HSL
  • HSI
  • YIQ for NTSC TVs in USA
  • YUV for PAL TVs in EU
  • YCbCr for digital TVs
  • Munsell Color System

Color Models are device independent. For discussion of device dependent color spaces, please see my post Digital Color and Imaging.

LMS, RGB, and CIE XYZ Color Spaces

Source: Color/CMU

HSV Color Space

My Related Posts

Reflective Display Technology: Using Pigments and Structural Colors

Color Science and Technology in LCD and LED Displays

Color Science of Gem Stones

Nature’s Fantastical Palette: Color From Structure

Optics of Metallic and Pearlescent Colors

Color Change: In Biology and Smart Pigments Technology

Color and Imaging in Digital Video and Cinema

Digital Color and Imaging

On Luminescence: Fluorescence, Phosphorescence, and Bioluminescence

On Light, Vision, Appearance, Color and Imaging

Understanding Rasa: Yoga of Nine Emotions

Shapes and Patterns in Nature

Key Sources of Research

What Are The Characteristics Of Color?

https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-fundamentals/what-are-the-characteristics-of-color

Birren Color Theory

by ADMIN on MARCH 11, 2012

http://www.wonderfulcolors.org/blog/birren-color-theory/

Light, Color, Perception, and Color Space Theory

Professor Brian A. Barsky

barsky@cs.berkeley.edu

Computer Science Division
Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Sciences University of California, Berkeley

Understanding Color Spaces and Color Space Conversion

https://www.mathworks.com/help/images/understanding-color-spaces-and-color-space-conversion.html

The Human Visual System and Color Models

Click to access Carmody_Visual&ColorModels.pdf

Defining and Communicating Color: The CIELAB System

Color Vision and Arts

http://www.webexhibits.org/colorart/index.html

PRECISE COLOR COMMUNICATION: COLOR CONTROL FROM PERCEPTION TO INSTRUMENTATION

KonicaMinolta

A short history of color theory

https://programmingdesignsystems.com/color/a-short-history-of-color-theory/index.html

Let’s Colormath

Understanding the formulas of color conversion

https://donatbalipapp.medium.com/colours-maths-90346fb5abda

A History of Human Color Vision—from Newton to Maxwell

Barry R. Masters

Optics and Photonics January 2011

https://www.osa-opn.org/home/articles/volume_22/issue_1/features/a_history_of_human_color_vision—from_newton_to_max/

The Difference Between Chroma and Saturation

Munsell Color

Charles S. Peirce’s Phenomenology: Analysis and Consciousness

By Richard Kenneth Atkins

The Evolution of Human Color Vision/ Jeremy Nathans

Jeremy Nathans Lecture on Color Vision

JEREMY NATHANS LECTURE ON COLOR VISION

JEREMY NATHANS LECTURE ON COLOR VISION

JEREMY NATHANS LECTURE ON COLOR VISION

The Genes for Color Vision

Jeremy Nathans

SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN FEBRUARY 1989

A Short History of Color Photography

Photography  |  Angie Kordic

https://www.widewalls.ch/magazine/color-photography

Blue: The History of a Color (2001)

followed by Black: The History of a Color (2009) and then Green: The History of a Color (2014), all produced by the same publisher. A fifth, devoted to yellow, should come next. 

Historic Look on Color Theory 

Steele R. Stokley

The evolution of colour in design from the 1950s to today

Francesca Valan

Journal of the International Colour Association (2012): 8, 55-60

Greek Color Theory and the Four Elements

J.L. Benson

University of Massachusetts Amherst

A SHORT HISTORY OF COLOUR PHOTOGRAPHY

https://blog.scienceandmediamuseum.org.uk/a-short-history-of-colour-photography/

History of Color System

The Origins of Modern Color Science

J D Mollon

Click to access MollonColorScience.pdf

The History of Colors

Tobias Kiefer

Click to access Assignment_History_of_Colors.PDF

Notes for the course of Color Digital Image Processing

Edoardo Provenzi

Understanding color & the in-camera image processing pipeline for computer vision

Dr. Michael S. Brown

Canada Research Chair Professor York University – Toronto

ICCV 2019 Tutorial – Seoul, Korea

Chapter 2
Basic Color Theory

Click to access t3.pdf

Color Science

CS 4620 Lecture 26

Click to access 26color.pdf

Color Image Perception, Representation and Contrast Enhancement

Yao Wang
Tandon School of Engineering, New York University

A GUIDE TO LIGHT AND COLOUR DEMONSTRATIONS

Arne Valberg, Bjørg Helene Andorsen, Kine Angelo, Barbara Szybinska Matusiak and Claudia Moscoso

Norwegian University of Science and Technology Trondheim, Norway

https://www.ntnu.edu/documents/1272527942/1272817015/2015-09-08+DEMO+web.pdf/f1695ca5-b834-4d05-a011-a185f6562e32

A Primer to Colors in Digital Design

Archit Jha

Jul 16, 2017

https://uxdesign.cc/a-primer-to-colors-in-digital-design-7d16bb33399e

Chapter 7 ADDITIVE COLOR MIXING

Click to access 07_additive-color.pdf

Computergrafik

Matthias Zwicker Universität Bern Herbst 2016

Color

Click to access ColorPerception.pdf

Introduction to Computer Vision

The Perception of Color

In: Webvision: The Organization of the Retina and Visual System [Internet]. Salt Lake City (UT): University of Utah Health Sciences Center; 1995–.2005 May 1 [updated 2007 Jul 9]

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21413396/

Visual Pigment Gene Structure and Expression in Human Retinae 

Tomohiko Yamaguchi,  Arno G. Motulsky,  Samir S. Deeb

Human Molecular Genetics, Volume 6, Issue 7, July 1997, Pages 981–990, https://doi.org/10.1093/hmg/6.7.981

https://academic.oup.com/hmg/article/6/7/981/572151

The Difference Between Chroma and Saturation

LUMINANCE AND CHROMATICITY

https://colorusage.arc.nasa.gov/lum_and_chrom.php

Number by Colors

A Guide to Using Color to Understand Technical Data
  • Brand Fortner
  • Theodore E. Meyer

Chapter 5 Perceiving Color

The Practical Guide To Color Theory For Photographers

History of the Bauhaus

https://bauhaus.netlify.app/form_color/color/

The Digital Artist’s Complete Guide To Mastering Color Theory

byLeigh G

BASIC COLOR THEORY

Anthony Holdsworth

Molecular Genetics of Color Vision and Color Vision Defects

Maureen Neitz, PhDJay Neitz, PhD

Arch Ophthalmol. 2000;118(5):691-700. doi:10.1001/archopht.118.5.691

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaophthalmology/fullarticle/413200

Color Theory: Introduction to Color Theory and the Color Wheel

https://blog.thepapermillstore.com/color-theory-introduction-color-wheel/

Color Spaces and Color Temperature

https://tigoe.github.io/LightProjects/color-spaces-color-temp.html

The Brightness of Colour

David Corney1, John-Dylan Haynes2, Geraint Rees3,4, R. Beau Lotto1*

EECS 487: Interactive Computer Graphics

Colorimetry

KonicaMinolta

Basics of Color Theory

THE BASICS OF COLOR PERCEPTION AND MEASUREMENT

Hunterlab

https://www.hunterlab.com/color-measurement-learning/glossary/

Color Matching and Color Discrimination

The Science of Color

2003

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.457.9467&rep=rep1&type=pdf

1.3 Color Temperature

https://www.mat.univie.ac.at/~kriegl/Skripten/CG/CG.html

https://www.mat.univie.ac.at/~kriegl/Skripten/CG/node10.html

Color Spaces and Color Temperature

https://tigoe.github.io/LightProjects/color-spaces-color-temp.html

Digital Camera Sensor Colorimetry

Douglas A. Kerr

Click to access Sensor_Colorimetry.pdf

Chromatic luminance, colorimetric purity, and optimal aperture‐color stimuli

DOI: 10.1002/col.20356

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/230164581_Chromatic_luminance_colorimetric_purity_and_optimal_aperture-color_stimuli

Title: A Review of RGB Color Spaces …from xyY to R’G’B’

The CIE XYZ and xyY Color Spaces

Douglas A. Kerr

Click to access CIE_XYZ.pdf

DIVERSE CELL TYPES, CIRCUITS, AND MECHANISMS FOR COLOR VISION IN THE VERTEBRATE RETINA

Wallace B. Thoreson and Dennis M. Dacey

Department of Ophthalmology and Visual Sciences, Truhlsen Eye Institute, University of Nebraska Medical Center, Omaha, Nebraska; and Department of Biological Structure, Washington National Primate Research Center, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

Physiol Rev 99: 1527–1573, 2019 Published May 29, 2019; doi:10.1152/physrev.00027.2018

https://journals.physiology.org/doi/pdf/10.1152/physrev.00027.2018

Human Vision

Introduction to color theory

https://graphics.stanford.edu/courses/cs178-10/applets/locus.html

COLOR WHEELS

https://www2.bellevuecollege.edu/artshum/materials/art/tanzi/Winter04/111/111CLRWHLSW04.htm

Human Vision and Color

UT

Click to access 121.pdf

COLOR VISION MECHANISMS

Andrew Stockman

Department of Visual Neuroscience UCL Institute of Opthalmology London, United KIngdom

David H. Brainard

Department of Psychology University of Pennsylvania Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Color

CMU

Click to access lecture15.pdf

What Are The Characteristics Of Color?

Pantone

https://www.pantone.com/articles/color-fundamentals/what-are-the-characteristics-of-color

A Guide to Color


Guide C-316
Revised by Jennah McKinley

https://aces.nmsu.edu/pubs/_c/C316/welcome.html

A History of Color

The Evolution of Theories of Lights and Color
  • Robert A. Crone

https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-94-007-0870-9

The Brilliant History of Color in Art

Victoria Finlay

A History of Light and Colour Measurement
Science in the Shadows

Sean F Johnston

University of Glasgow, Crichton Campus, UK

Color codes: modern theories of color in philosophy, painting and architecture, literature, music and psychology

Charles Riley

Chapter 6 Colour

History of Color Systems

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management

There are a few Institutions which do general long term trends and scenario analysis.

  • US DNI NIC
  • Atlantic Council
  • UK MOD
  • Shell International
  • HP
  • EY
  • WEF

There are many institutions both public and private which do issue or industry specific scenarios, trends, and futures analysis.

  • Water
  • Food
  • Energy
  • Climate Change
  • Globalization
  • Urbanization
  • Governance
  • Security
  • Technology
  • Demographic
  • Industry specific
  • Nationalism
  • Protectionism
  • Healthcare
  • Human Development

Why do Scenarios?

Its a way to internalize an organization’s external environment. By doing so, managers and leaders can future-proof their strategy.

Image Source: If only we knew. With scenario planning, we do. Here’s how to prepare better for the next crisis

Image Source: Global Business Network

Image Source: WHY THE SOCIAL SECTOR NEEDS SCENARIO PLANNING NOW

Image Source: Megatrends 2020 and beyond /EY Mega Trends

The article below was published in MIT Sloan Review.

The World in 2030: Nine Megatrends to Watch

Where will we be in 2030? 

I don’t usually play the futurist game — I’m more of a “presentist,” looking at the data we have right now on fast-moving megatrends that shape the world today. But a client asked me to paint a picture of what the big trends tell us about 2030. And I’d say we do have some strong indications of where we could be in 11 years. 

The directions we go and choices we make will have enormous impacts on our lives, careers, businesses, and the world. Here are my predictions of how nine important trends will evolve by 2030 — listed in order roughly from nearly certain to very likely to hard to say

Nine Global Trends on the Horizon

Demographics: There will be about 1 billion more of us, and we will live longer. The world should reach 8.5 billion people by 2030, up from 7.3 billion in 2015. The fastest growing demographic will be the elderly, with the population of people over 65 years old at 1 billion by 2030. Most of those new billion will be in the middle class economically, as the percentage of citizens in dire poverty continues to drop (a rare sustainability win). Even as the middle swells, however, the percentage of all new wealth accruing to the very top of the pyramid will continue to be a major, and destabilizing, issue. That said, the other megatrends, especially climate change, could slow or change the outcomes here.

Urbanization: Two-thirds of us will live in cities. The urbanization of our populations will increase, creating more megacities as well as small- and medium-size metropolises. Countervailing forces will include a rising cost of living in the most desirable cities. The effects will include the need for more big buildings with better management technologies (big data and AI that makes buildings much more efficient), and we will need more food moved in from where we grow it to where we eat it — or rapidly expand urban agriculture.

Transparency: Our world will become even more open — and less private.It’s hard to imagine that the trend to track everything will be going anywhere but in one direction: a radically more open world. The amount of information collected on every person, product, and organization will grow exponentially, and the pressure to share that information — with customers and consumers in particular — will expand. The tools to analyze information will be well-developed and will make some decision-making easier; for instance, it will be easier to choose products with the lowest carbon footprints, highest wages for employees, and fewest toxic ingredients. But all these tools will shatter privacy in the process.

Privacy Policy

Climate Crisis: The climate will continue to change quickly and feature regular, extreme weather everywhere. Yes, there’s still uncertainty about how everything will play out exactly, but not about whether the climate is changing dramatically and dangerously. Significant inertia in both atmospheric and economic/human systems allows for a more confident prediction of what will happen in just 11 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has made clear how critical it is to radically alter the path of carbon emissions to hold the world to 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming. But that’s not likely to happen with current levels of commitment in global governments: The important Paris climate accord of 2015, in theory, agrees to hold warming to 2 degrees Celsius. But in practice, what countries have committed to so far will only hold us to no more than 3 degrees of warming. By 2030, we are very likely to already be at or approaching the 1.5 mark. 

The results of climate change will be unrelenting. Many highly populated coastal areas will be in consistent trouble, as sea levels rise. The natural world will be much less rich, with drastic to catastrophic declines in populations of many species and major to total losses of ecosystems like coral. Droughts and floods will stress global breadbasket regions and shift where we grow major crops. The Arctic will be ice-free in the summer (this will allow ships to move freely in this region, which is technically good for shorter supply chains but a Pyrrhic victory at best). Between seas, heat, and shifts in water availability, mass migrations will likely have begun. By 2030, we will have much better clarity on how bad the coming decades after that point will be. We will know whether the melting of the major ice sheets will be literally inundating most coastal cities, and if we’re truly approaching an “Uninhabitable Earth” in our lifetimes. 

Resource Pressures: We will be forced to more aggressively confront resource constraints. To keep volumes of major commodities (such as metals) in line with economic growth, we will need to more quickly embrace circular models: sourcing much less from virgin materials, using recycled content and remanufactured products, and generally rethinking the material economy. Water will be a stressed resource, and it seems likely that many cities will be constantly in a state of water shortage. We will need more investment in water tech and desalination to help. 

Clean Tech: The transformation of our grid, our roadways, and our buildings to zero-carbon technology will be surprisingly far along. Here’s some good news: Due to continuing drops in the cost of clean technologies, renewable energy is dramatically on the rise, making up more than half the global new power capacity every year since 2015. By 2030, effectively no new additions of generating capacity will come from fossil-fuel-based technologies.Electric vehicles will be a large part of the transportation equation: While estimates about the share of EVs on the road by 2030 range from the teens to nearly 100% (assuming early retirement of internal combustion engines), nearly all sales of new vehicles will be EVs. This will be driven by dramatic reductions in the cost of batteries and strict legislation banning fossil-fuel engines. We will also see an explosion of data-driven technologies that make buildings, the grid, roadways, and water systems substantially more efficient.

Technology Shifts: The internet of things will have won the day, and every new device will be connected. Proponents of the “singularity” have long projected that by around 2030, affordable AI will achieve human levels of intelligence. AI and machine learning will plan much of our lives and make us more efficient, well beyond choosing driving routes to optimize traffic. Technology will manipulate us even more than it does today — Russian interference in U.S. elections may look quaint. AI will create some new kinds of jobs but will also nearly eliminate entire segments of work, from truck and taxi drivers to some high-skill jobs such as paralegals and engineers.

Global Policy: There’s an open question about how we’ll get important things done. I’m thinking specifically about whether global governments and institutions will be working in sync to aggressively fight climate change and resource pressures, and tackle vast inequality and poverty — or whether it will be every region and ethnic group for itself. Predicting politics is nearly impossible, and it’s hard to imagine how global policy action on climate and other megatrends will play out. The Paris Agreement was a monumental start, but countries, most notably the U.S., have lately retreated from global cooperation in general. Trade wars and tariffs are all the rage in 2019. It seems likely that, even more than today, it will be up to business to play a major role in driving sustainability.

Populism: The rise of nationalism and radicalism may increase … or it won’t. Even less certain than policy is the support, or lack thereof, of the mass of people for different philosophies of governing. In recent years, populists have been elected or consolidated power in countries as varied as the U.S., Brazil, and Hungary. And yet, in recent weeks, citizens in countries like Turkey, Algeria, and Sudan have pushed back on autocracy. Will that trend continue?

How Should Business Prepare?

Laying out strategies for companies to navigate this likely future world is a book-length conversation. But let me suggest a few themes of action to consider:

  • Engage everyone in the sphere of the business world on climate. A dangerously changing climate is the biggest threat humanity has ever faced. But it’s not all set in stone … yet. Companies have an economic incentive and moral responsibility to work hard to reduce the damage as much as possible. Engage employees (stamp out climate denial), talk to consumers and customers about climate issues through your products, and change internal rules on corporate finance to make investment decisions with flexible hurdle rates that favor pro-climate spending. Most importantly, use influence and lobbying power to demand, at all levels of government, an escalating public price on carbon — and publicly admonish industry lobbying groups that don’t.
  • Consider the human aspect of business more. As new technologies sweep through society and business, the change will be jarring. Those changes and pressures are part of why people are turning to populist leaders who promise solutions. Business leaders should think through what these big shifts mean for the people that make up our companies, value chains, and communities.
  • Embrace transparency. To be blunt, you don’t have a choice. Each successive generation will expect more openness from the companies they buy from and work for. 
  • Listen to the next generation. By 2030, the leading edge of millennials will be nearing 50, and they and Gen Z will make up the vast majority of the workforce. Listen to them now about their priorities and values. 

Predicting the future means projecting forward from what’s already happening, while throwing in expected inertia in human and natural systems. It can give us an impressionistic picture of the world of the future. Our choices matter a great deal, as individuals and through our organizations and institutions. Business, in particular, will play a large role in where the world goes. Employees, customers, and even investors increasingly demand that the role of business be a positive one. 

Look, we could all just wait and see where these historic waves take us. But I prefer that we all work proactively to ensure that a better, thriving future is the one we choose.

About the Author

Andrew Winston is founder of Winston Eco-Strategies and an adviser to multinationals on how they can navigate humanity’s biggest challenges and profit from solving them. He is the coauthor of the international best seller Green to Gold and the author of the popular book The Big Pivot: Radically Practical Strategies for a Hotter, Scarcer, and More Open World. He tweets @andrewwinston.

a database of reports globally published by many institutions.

Global Trends and Future Scenarios

IDB InterAmerican Development Bank

Key Institutions doing Global Scenarios, Trends, and Futures analysis

Shell Scenarios

https://www.shell.com/energy-and-innovation/the-energy-future/scenarios.html

HP Mega Trends

https://hpmegatrends.com

World Economic Forum

Global Risks Report

https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020

US DNI NIC Global Trends

Paradox of Progress

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/global-trends-home

https://www.dni.gov/index.php/digital-extras/previous-reports

Atlantic Council

Global Risks 2035 Update

Decline or New Renaissance?

Mathew J. Burrows 2019

UK MOD Global Strategic Trends
EY Mega Trends

Megatrends 2020 and beyond

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/megatrends

OECD

The Long View: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/scenarios-for-the-world-economy-to-2060.htm

EU Parliament
World Bank

The Future is Now: Scenarios to 2025 and Beyond

J. Warren Evans

https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/full/10.1596/978-1-4648-0307-9_ch4

International Monetary Fund

World Economic Outlook

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO

World Resources Institute

https://www.wri.org/publication/which-world-scenarios-21st-century

United Nations

McKinsey Global Institute

MGI in 2019

Highlights of our research this year

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Featured%20Insights/Innovation/Ten%20highlights%20from%20our%202019%20research/MGI-in-2019-A-compendium-of-our-research-this-year-vF.ashx

McKinsey and Company

The Use and Abuse of Scenarios

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/the-use-and-abuse-of-scenarios

McKinsey Special Collections
Trends and global forces

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/Strategy%20and%20Corporate%20Finance/Our%20Insights/Strategy%20and%20corporate%20finance%20special%20collection/Final%20PDFs/McKinsey-Special-Collections_Trends-and-global-forces.ashx

Shifting tides: Global economic scenarios for 2015–25

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/shifting-tides-global-economic-scenarios-for-2015-25

Boston Consulting Group BCG

Have you future Proofed your strategy?

APRIL 17, 2020 By Alan InyHans KuipersEnrique Rueda-Sabater, and Christian Haakonsen

https://www.bcg.com/publications/2020/four-scenarios-assess-business-resilience

International Food Policy Research Institute IFPRI

Global food projections to 2020 

emerging trends and alternative futures

https://www.ifpri.org/publication/global-food-projections-2020

World Energy Council

WORLD ENERGY SCENARIOS: COMPOSING ENERGY FUTURES TO 2050

https://www.worldenergy.org/publications/entry/world-energy-scenarios-composing-energy-futures-to-2050

EPRI Electric Power Research Institute

A Perspective on the Future of Energy: Scenarios, Trends, and Global Points of View

Millienium Project

THE MILLENNIUM PROJECT

The Institute for the Future

My Related Posts

Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future

Strategy | Strategic Management | Strategic Planning | Strategic Thinking

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

On Anticipation: Going Beyond Forecasts and Scenarios

HP’s Megatrends

Clock of the Long Now: Time and Responsibility

History of Operations Research

Profiles in Operations Research

Jay W. Forrester and System Dynamics

Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future

Short term Thinking in Investment Decisions of Businesses and Financial Markets

The Origins and History of Management Consulting

Multilevel Approach to Research in Organizations

Hierarchical Planning: Integration of Strategy, Planning, Scheduling, and Execution

Networks and Hierarchies

Hierarchy Theory in Biology, Ecology and Evolution

Systems Biology: Biological Networks, Network Motifs, Switches and Oscillators

Growth and Form in Nature: Power Laws and Fractals

Shapes and Patterns in Nature

Systems View of Life: A Synthesis by Fritjof Capra

Multiplex Financial Networks

Boundaries and Networks

Key Sources of Research

Future Population Growth

by Max Roser

Our World in Data

This article was first published in 2014. It was last revised in November 2019.

https://ourworldindata.org/future-population-growth

Future Studies

Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Futures_studies

Global Foresight 2050 – Six global scenarios and implications for the forest sector 

AUTHORS: Sten Nilsson, Fredrik Ingemarson
PUBLISHED: 2017, Uppsala
PUBLISHER: Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU)

An overview of global energy scenarios by 2040: identifying the driving forces using cross‑impact analysis method

S. Ghasemian1 · A. Faridzad1 · P. Abbaszadeh2 · A. Taklif1 · A. Ghasemi1 · R. Hafezi3

Received: 27 November 2019 / Revised: 11 March 2020 / Accepted: 6 April 2020

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-020-02738-5

Learning from the Future

How to make robust strategy in times of deep uncertainty 

From the Magazine (July–August 2020)

https://hbr.org/2020/07/learning-from-the-future

Why the Social Sector Needs Scenario Planning Now

BCG

OCTOBER 01, 2020 

https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/why-social-sector-needs-scenario-planning

Future Worlds

PA Consulting

https://www.paconsulting.com/insights/2020/futureworlds/

Directions in Scenario Planning Literature – A Review of the Past Decades

Celeste Amorim Varuma, Carla Meloa
aDepartment of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro,

Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal

The Century Ahead:
Four Global Scenarios

Christi Electris, Paul Raskin, Rich Rosen, and John Stutz

Tellus

https://greattransition.org

Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Order in 2025-2030: What Will Great Power Competition Look Like?

September 16, 2020

CSIS

https://www.csis.org/analysis/four-scenarios-geopolitical-order-2025-2030-what-will-great-power-competition-look

Futurology Why it’s worth reading crazy-sounding scenarios about the future

Speculating about the future can make it easier to respond to unexpected events

Jul 6th 2019

Economist

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/07/06/why-its-worth-reading-crazy-sounding-scenarios-about-the-future

THE FUTURE OF MOBILITY

Scenarios for the United States in 2030

Johanna Zmud, Liisa Ecola, Peter Phleps, Irene Feige

Rand

Future energy: In search of a scenario reflecting current and future pressures and trends

Jennifer Morris, David Hone, Martin Haigh, Andrei Sokolov and Sergey Paltsev

November 2020

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

2018 Food, Water, Energy and Climate Outlook 

MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change

Consensus Forecasts

Global Outlook 2020 – 2030

The Conference Board

Global Economic Outlook

https://www.conference-board.org/topics/global-economic-outlook

The Water-Energy-Food Nexus

A new approach in support of food security and sustainable agriculture

FAO

The Food Water Energy Nexus

UNECE

https://www.unece.org/env/water/nexus

Water, Food and Energy Nexus in Asia and the Pacific

UNESCAP

Developing the Pardee RAND Food-Energy-Water Security Index

Toward a Global Standardized, Quantitative, and Transparent Resource Assessment

by Henry H. WillisDavid G. GrovesJeanne S. RingelZhimin MaoShira EfronMichele Abbott

RAND

https://www.rand.org/pubs/tools/TL165.html

Introduction to the water-energy nexus

Article — 23 March 2020

IEA

https://www.iea.org/articles/introduction-to-water-and-energy

Mining & Metals Scenarios to 2030

McKinsey

WEF

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/Metals%20and%20Mining/PDFs/mining_metals_scenarios.aspx

The Long View: Scenarios for the world economy to 2060

OECD

http://www.oecd.org/economy/growth/scenarios-for-the-world-economy-to-2060.htm

Risk, Resilience, and Alternative Futures: Scenario-building at the World Economic Forum

Christina Garsten, Adrienne Sörbom

CBS

https://research.cbs.dk/en/publications/risk-resilience-and-alternative-futures-scenario-building-at-the-

If only we knew. With scenario planning, we do. Here’s how to prepare better for the next crisis

WEF

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/scenario-planning-is-the-what-if-in-business-here-s-how-it-works/

Energy and Climate Scenarios

IHS Markit

https://ihsmarkit.com/products/energy-climate-scenarios.html

The World in 2030: Nine Megatrends to Watch

Andrew S. Winston 

May 07, 2019

MIT Sloan Review

https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/the-world-in-2030-nine-megatrends-to-watch/

The future of capitalism: Trends, scenarios and prospects for the future

Gerard Delanty

First Published January 30, 2019 

Journal of Classical Sociology

https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1468795X18810569

EYQ Mega Trends

Year 2020 Mega Trends

https://www.ey.com/en_gl/megatrends

Year 2016 Megatrends

Year 2018 Megatrends

Shaping the Future of Global Food Systems: A Scenarios Analysis

Highlights from the report February 2017

Deloitte and WEF

Global Risks 2035: The Search for a New Normal

Atlantic Council

2016

Vision 2040: Global Scenarios for the Oil and Gas Industry

Deloitte

The future of Asia

Asian flows and networks are defining the next phase of globalization

MGI 2020

Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in Economics

Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economics

  • Increasing Returns
  • Self Reinforcement
  • Positive Feedbacks
  • Lock-in

 

Key People:

  • W. Brain Arthur
  • Ken Arrow
  • Scott Page
  • Paul David

 

From Increasing Returns,  Path Dependence in Economy 

Forward to the book by K Arrow

The concept of increasing returns has had a long but uneasy presence in economic analysis. The opening chapters of Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations put great emphasis on increasing returns to explain both specialization and economic growth. Yet the object of study moves quickly to a competitive system and a cost-of-production theory of value, which cannot be made rigorous except by assuming constant returns. The English school (David Ricardo, John Stuart Mill) followed the competitive assumptions and quietly dropped Smith’s boldly-stated proposition that, “the division of labor is limited by the extent of the market,” division of labor having been shown to lead to increased productivity.

 

Other analysts in different traditions, especially the French mathematician and economist, A. A. Cournot (1838), saw clearly enough the incompatibility of increasing returns and perfect competition and developed theories of monopoly and oligopoly to explain the economic system implied by increasing returns. But this tradition acts like an underground river, springing to the surface only every few decades. Alfred Marshall expanded broadly, if vaguely, on the implications of increasing returns, including those for economic growth, irreversible supply curves, and the like, as well as the novel and far-reaching concept of externalities, where some, at least, of the increasing returns are captured, not by the producer but by others.

 

The implications of increasing returns for imperfect competition were developed, though far from completely, by Edward Chamberlin and Joan Robinson in the 1930s. There was sporadic emphasis on the role of increasing returns in economic growth by Allyn Young (1928) (but only in very general terms) and then by Nicholas Kaldor in the1950s. Many developmental theorists, particularly in the 1950s, advocated radical planning policies based on vague notions of increasing returns.

 

From Path Dependence

 

A survey of the literature on path dependence reveals four related causes: increasing returns, self-reinforcement, positive feedbacks, and lock-in. Though related, these causes differ. Increasing returns means that the more a choice is made or an action is taken, the greater its benefits. Self-reinforcement means that making a choice or taking an action puts in place a set of forces or complementary institutions that encourage that choice to be sustained. With positive feedbacks, an action or choice creates positive externalities when that same choice is made by other people. Positive feedbacks create something like increasing returns, but mathematically, they differ. Increasing returns can be thought of as benefits that rise smoothly as more people make a particular choice and positive feedbacks as little bonuses given to people who already made that choice or who will make that choice in the future. Finally, lock-in means that one choice or action becomes better than any other one because a sufficient number of people have already made that choice.

 

From Positive Feedbacks in the Economy

 

Conventional economic theory is built on the assumption of diminishing returns. Economic actions eventually engender a negative feedback that leads to a predictable equilibrium for prices and market shares. Negative feedback tends to stabilize the economy because any major changes will be offset by the very reactions they generate. The high oil prices of the 1970’s encouraged energy conservation and increased oil exploration, precipitating a predictable drop in prices by 198x. According to conventional theory the equilibrium marks the “best” outcome possible under the circumstances: the most efficient use and allocation of resources.

Such an agreeable picture often does violence to reality. In many parts of the economy stabilizing forces appear not to operate. Instead, positive feedback magnifies the effect of small economic shifts; the economic models that describe such effects differ vastly from the conventional ones. Diminishing returns imply a single equilibrium point for the economy, but positive feedback—increasing returns—make for multiple equilibrium points. There is no guarantee that the particular economic outcome selected from among the many alternatives will be the “best” one. Furthermore, once chance economic forces select a particular path, it may become locked in regardless of the advantages of other paths. If one product or nation in a competitive marketplace gets ahead by “chance” it tends to stay ahead and even increase its lead. Predictable, shared markets are no longer guaranteed.

If increasing-returns mechanisms are important, why have they been largely ignored until recently? Some would say that complicated products—high technology—for which increasing returns are so prevalent, are themselves a recent phenomenon. This is true, but only part of the answer. After all, in the 1940’s and 1950’s economists like Gunnar Myrdal and Nicholas Kaldor identified “cumulative causation” or positive feedback mechanisms that did not involve technology. Orthodox economists avoided increasing returns for deeper reasons.

Some economists found the existence of more than one solution to the same problem distasteful—unscientific. “Multiple equilibria,” wrote Josef Schumpeter in 1954, “are not necessarily useless, but from the standpoint of any exact science the existence of a uniquely determined equilibrium is, of course, of the utmost importance, even if proof has to be purchased at the price of very restrictive assumptions; without any possibility of proving the existence of uniquely determined equilibria—or at all events, of a small number of possible equilibria—at however high a level of abstraction, a field of phenomena is really a chaos that is not under analytical control.”

Other economists could see that increasing returns would destroy their familiar world of unique, predictable equilibria and along with this the notion that the market’s choice was always best. Moreover, if one or a few firms came to dominate a market, the assumption of perfect competition, that no firm is large enough to affect market prices on its own (which makes economic problems easy to analyze), would also be a casualty. When John Hicks surveyed these possibilities in 1939 he drew back in alarm. “The threatened wreckage,” he wrote, “is that of the greater part of economic theory.” Economists restricted themselves to diminishing returns, which presented no anomalies and could be analyzed completely.

Studying such problems in 1979, I believed I could see a way out of many of these difficulties. In the real world, if several similar-sized firms entered a market together, small fortuitous events—unexpected orders, chance meetings with buyers, managerial whims—would help determine which ones achieved early sales and, over time, which firm came to dominate. Economic activity is quantized by individual transactions that are too small to foresee, and these small “random” events could cumulate and become magnified by positive feedbacks over time to determine which solution was reached. This suggested that situations dominated by increasing returns should be modeled not as static, deterministic problems, but rather as dynamic processes with random events, and with natural positive feedbacks or non-linearities. With this strategy an increasing-returns market could be recreated theoretically and watched as its corresponding process unfolded again and again. Sometimes one solution would emerge, sometimes (under identical conditions) another. It would be impossible to know in advance which of the multiple solutions would emerge in any given run, but it would be possible to record the particular set of random events leading to each solution and to study the probability that a particular solution will emerge under a certain set of initial conditions. The idea was simple and it may well have occurred to economists in the past. But making it work called for non-linear random-process theory that did not exist in their day.

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events

W. Brian Arthur

The Economic Journal, Vol. 99, No. 394. (Mar., 1989), pp. 1

 

Click to access Arthur_1989.pdf

 

Path Dependence

Scott E. Page

Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor 48104,

 

Click to access Page2006.pdf

 

Increasing Returns and the Two Worlds of Business 

by W. Brian Arthur

April 27, 1996

 

Click to access Arthur_B.pdf

 

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

Jochen Koch,Martin Eisend,  Arne Petermann,

 

Click to access 0a85e5395b8bf886d7000000.pdf

 

“Lock-in” vs. “critical masses” – industrial change under network externalities

Ulrich Witt

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.336.6781&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

Complexity and the Economy

W. Brian Arthur

Click to access arthur1999a.pdf

 

Arrow, Kenneth J.

“Path dependence and competitive equilibrium.”

History Matters. Essays on Economic Growth, Technology, and Demographic Change, Hrsg. Timothy W. Guinnane (2003): 23-35.

Click to access Arrow.pdf

 

 

Path dependence, its critics and the quest for ‘historical economics’

Paul A. David

Click to access 0deec53b482217c114000000.pdf

 

The Complexity Turn

John Urry

 

Click to access Urry-The-Complexity-Turn.pdf

 

 

“Silicon Valley” Locational Clusters: When Do Increasing Returns Imply Monopoly?

W. Brian Arthur

SFI WORKING PAPER: 1989–007

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/-silicon-Valley-Locational-Clusters-When-Do-Arthur/435d47aad77998366d32924e8c1b9988c31c4380/pdf

 

David, Paul A.

“Why are institutions the ‘carriers of history’?: Path dependence and the evolution of conventions, organizations and institutions.”

Structural change and economic dynamics 5.2 (1994): 205-220.

Click to access 00b7d529bc11dee673000000.pdf

 

Increasing Returns,  Path Dependence and Study of Politics

 

Click to access Pierson%20APSR%202000.pdf

 

Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy

by W. Brian Arthur,

Univ. of Michigan Press,

Ann Arbor, 1994.

http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~wbarthur/Books/Preface.html

 

Complexity economics:
a different framework for economic thought

W. Brian Arthur

2013

 

Click to access Comp.Econ.SFI.pdf

 

Increasing Returns and the New World of Business

by W. Brian Arthur

1996

 

Click to access HBR.pdf

 

COMPETING TECHNOLOGIES, INCREASING RETURNS,

AND LOCK-IN BY HISTORICAL EVENTS

W. Brian Arthur

Click to access EJ.pdf

 

 

Positive Feedbacks in the Economy

W. Brian Arthur

26 November 1989

 

Click to access SciAm_Article.pdf