Gantt Chart Simulation for Stock Flow Consistent Production Schedules

Gantt Chart Simulation for Stock Flow Consistent Production Schedules

 

I have knowledge of two software which do Gantt chart simulation for production scheduling.  These are used by top most companies in the world for production planning and scheduling now a days known as Supply Chain Management (SCM).

Production Schedules are stock flow consistent which means that starting inventories, and unused production of products result in cumulative inventory which is plotted for each of the product.

Production and Shipments (arrivals and dispatched) create Flows and Inventory levels indicate Stock level positions.

Gantt Chart simulators are excellent tools for operations management in plants.

The first Gantt chart was actually developed by Karol Adamiecki in Poland.  He called it a Harmonogram.  Henry Gantt in 1910 published first gantt chart which was later than publication by Karol Adamiecki.

These two charts below show Simulator window in which Gantt chart and inventory level plots are displayed.

Gantt Chart Simulator in Aspen Tech Plant Scheduler for Production Scheduling

active-guidance_10740930

 

Gantt Chart Simulator in Atlantic Decision Sciences Scheduler

Scheduling Board Single Chart

Key Sources for Research:

 

A Presentation by Chris Jones on Evolution of Graphical Production Scheduling Software

at the Cornell University Deptt of ORIE

 

 

 

Atlantic Decision Sciences

http://atlanticdecisionsciences.com

 

 

Aspen Technology

http://aspentech.com/products/aspen-plant-scheduler/

 

 

History of Gantt Chart

http://www.ganttchart.com/orgforwork.html

 

 

History of Production Scheduling

http://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9780387331157-c1.pdf?SGWID=0-0-45-321351-p148129370

 

 

The harmonogram: an overlooked method of scheduling work.

Marsh, E. R. (1976).

Project Management Quarterly, 7(1), 21–25.

https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/harmonogram-overlooked-method-scheduling-work-5666

 

The Harmonogram of Karol Adamiecki

Edward R. Marsh

http://amj.aom.org/content/18/2/358

 

Karol Adamiecki

https://www.pocketbook.co.uk/blog/tag/karol-adamiecki/

Boundaries and Networks

Boundaries and Networks

 

Boundaries precede Networks.

It is the difference which makes the difference.

Boundaries in

  • Regionalism, Globalization, Multinational Firms (Trade/Economics)
  • Social Networks Theory/Relational Sociology (Sociology)
  • Complex Systems Theory – Micro/Macro Links (System Sciences)
  • Autocatalysis, Autopoiesis and Relational Biology (Biology)
  • System and Its Environment (Strategic Planning/Management)
  • Functional Silos (Supply Chain Management/Operations Management)
  • Individual and the Collective (Philosophy)
  • Self, Nature, Culture (Meta Integral Theories – Ken Wilber/Roy Bhaskar)
  • Fractal/Recursive/Holographic Paradigm (Cosmology)

 

 

Key Terms:

  • Order
  • Class
  • Identity
  • Culture
  • Meaning
  • Difference
  • Boundaries
  • Networks
  • Hierarchies
  • Heterarchy
  • Control
  • Power
  • System/Environment
  • Inside/Outside
  • Interior/Exterior
  • Included/Excluded
  • Multi-Level
  • Fractals
  • Scale
  • Multiplex
  • Ties
  • Chains
  • Silos
  • Connections
  • Links
  • Netchains
  • Operational Closure
  • Inequality
  • Information Asymmetry
  • Categories
  • Domain
  • Social Structure
  • Interaction
  • Interlocks
  • Institutions
  • Memory
  • Agency
  • Limits
  • Relational
  • Intra/Inter
  • Process
  • Subjective/Objective

 

Chapter 2
The Relational Turn in Social Sciences

Recent times have witnessed relational sociology, as arguably the major form of relational scholarship, gain considerable scholarly momentum. There is a forthcoming major handbook (Dépelteau, 2018), significant edited collections such as Conceptualizing relational sociology (Powell & Dépelteau, 2013), Applying relational sociology (Dépelteau & Powell, 2013), and in the broader leadership literatures Advancing relational leadership research (Uhl-Bien & Ospina, 2012).  In addition, there have been key texts from Crossley (2011), the work of Donati (1983, 1991, 2011) has become more accessible in English (to which he thanks Margaret Archer for, stating she “greatly encouraged and assisted me in presenting my theory to an international audience (Donati, 2011, p. xvii)), and – although less engaged with by English-speaking audiences—Bajoit’s (1992) Pour une sociologie relationnelle.

The Canadian Sociological Association has established a research cluster for relational sociology, with regular symposia, meetings, and events. Significantly, in 2015 the International Review of Sociology/ Revue Internationale de Sociolgie published a special section on relational sociology. Edited by Prandini (2015) and with contributions from Crossley (2015), Dépelteau (2015), Donati (2015), and Fuhse (2015), this special section sought to ascertain whether an original and international sociological paradigm entitled “relational sociology” could be identified. Prandini (2015) argues:

A new and original social paradigm is recognizable only if it accedes to the world stage of the global scientific system constituted and structured by networks of scientific scholars, scientific contributions published in scientific journals, books, internet sites, etc., fueled by a vast array of international meetings, seminars, conferences, and so on. It is only at this global level that we can decide if a new paradigm is gaining a global stage or not. Put in other words: are we really witnessing a new and emergent sociological ‘school’, or are we observing only a sort of ‘esprit du temp’ which is able to catalyse similar intuitions and sociological insights? (pp. 1–2)

At the end of his paper, Prandini (2015) contends that there is less a paradigm (in its precise Kuhnian meaning) and instead it is better to speak of a “relational turn” in sociology. Built on a strong and clear convergence toward a common critique of classic sociological theories, it is possibly the early stages of an emerging paradigm but such a label is currently premature. The real breakthrough of this turn is in forcing social scientists to specify “accurately the ontology of society and social relation and to discover new methods and research techniques well suited to study it” (Prandini, 2015, p. 13).

Relational theory is, as Emirbayer (1997) declares, beyond any one disciplinary background, national tradition, or analytic and empirical point of view. Outside of the major centers of Europe and the USA, Yanjie Bian hosted the International Conference on Relational Sociology at the Institute for Empirical Social Science of Xi’an Jiaotong University, and Jan Fuhse hosted the international symposium Relational Sociology: Transatlantic Impulses for the Social Sciences at Humboldt University of Berlin. Donati (2011) claims that interest in social relations can be found in philosophy (from the metaphysical point of view), psychology (from the psychic point of view), economics (from the resource perspective), law (control by rule), and even biology (bioethics). The interest is also not limited to the social sciences, with Bradbury and Lichtenstein (2000) noting:

The interdependent, interrelated nature of the world has also been discovered by physicists in their study of quantum reality. In their quest to identify the basic building blocks of the natural world, quantum physicists found that atomic particles appeared more as relations than as discrete objects (Capra 1975; Wolf 1980), and that space itself is not empty but is filled with potential (Bohm 1988). Heisenberg’s discovery early this century that every observation irrevocably changes the object being observed, further fueled the recognition that human consciousness plays an irreversible role in our understanding of reality (Bachelard, 1934/1984; Wilber 1982; Jahn & Dunne 1987). (p. 552)

Apart from its widespread contemporary appeal, relational thinking has a long history. The North American stream arguably finds its roots in the New York School, European scholars such as Karl Marx, Georg Simmel, Gabriel Tarde, Norbert Elias, Niklas Luhmann, Pierre Bourdieu, Bruno Latour, among others, have long argued for various relational approaches (even if not using that label), and Emirbayer traces the tradition of privileging relations rather than substances to pre-Socratic Greek philosopher Heraclitus. What is consistently germane across these various scholars is a critique of substantialism in classic sociological accounts. This also arguably speaks to the proliferation of relational scholarship in the past few decades as globalized forces are causing a rethink of spatio-temporal conditions (e.g., the nation state and geographic borders). In breaking down the substantialist approaches, and their underlying analytical dualisms, relational scholarship asks questions of the ontological and epistemological as much as the empirical.

Contemporary thought and analysis in social theory is overrun with “turns.” In this chapter, rather than be seduced by contemporary attention to a relational turn in the social sciences, I seek to highlight some major events, trajectories, or streams of relational thought. In doing so, I am critically aware of the difficulty of arguing for relational understanding and then constructing significant events as though they are entities in and of their own right. Within the confines of a single chapter, and mindful of the role that this chapter is playing the book (e.g., setting some context/trajectory for developing my argument), my goal is to cite key developments and how they relate to one another and my argument. Given my particular interest in organizing activity, my focus is on the Human Relations Movement of the early twentieth century, the New York School of relational sociology, and then contemporary developments in sociology, leadership, and to a lesser extent, the natural sciences. While I concede that there is increasing interest in what has come to be known as “relational sociology” (see also the following chapter), relational scholarship has a long and diverse intellectual history. Importantly though, as Powell and Dépelteau (2013) note, relational sociology is not a heterogeneous label and as a collection of scholars, is still quite some way from achieving any form of  consensus. Whether consensus is required, or even desirable, for relational scholarship is questionable. The diversity of ontological and methodological starting points allows scholars to investigate a wide range of phenomena. This diversity, complexity, depth, and vitality enable dialogue and debate without requiring consensus. What binds them together is their scholarly focus on relations rather than alignment with a specific empirical object and/or method of inquiry

 

CALL FOR PAPERS

The Relational Turn in Sociology: Implications for the Study of Society, Culture, and Persons

Special issue of the academic journal Stan Rzeczy [State of Affairs]

The relational approach, which has a long tradition, has re-emerged and strengthened, forming a new, vital movement of divergent variants in sociology. Initiated and systematically developed by Pierpaolo Donati, it has grown into what is called the Italian relational turn, later followed by a proliferation of relational sociologies of various origins, including the works of Harrison C. White, Charles Tilly, Mustafa Emirbayer, Pierre Bourdieu and others. After the postmodern diffusion and beyond the stagnation of interpretative against normative conceptualizations of social life, relational sociology offers new conceptual tools and plays a leading role in reconstructing sociology both on theoretical and applied planes.

Modern sciences are founded on the study of relations, rather than essences or substances. From the outset, the relational approach has had to pave its way in sociology against holistic (“science of society”) and nominalistic (“science of individuals”) orientations. Social relations are among the key sociological concepts and have been studied as constitutive for social bonding. On the micro-level, interpersonal relations have been in the center of attention in the area where sociology and social psychology overlap. The relational turn consists not only of focusing on social relations; it also involves introducing relational categories of analysis.

The category of social relations is certainly not new in social theory. What is new is the way of looking at them. Contemporary relational thinking assumes radical changes in the ontological, epistemological, and phenomenological status of social relations. Refocusing on social relations, on their constitution and emergent effects leads us to a new way of describing, understanding and explaining social and cultural phenomena as relational facts.

A particularly significant feature of relational sociology resides in its capacity to broaden the theory of the human subject not only as a self, agent, and actor, but also through the development of the concept of the person; more precisely, through deeper research on the relational constitution of the human person as a social subject emerging from relational reflexivity (dialogue between ‘I’, ‘Me’, ‘We’, ‘You’ in a situated social context) – in other words, a view of the human person as homo relatus. Analyzing these processes leads to a sui generis relational theory of agency.

Various or divergent theories of contemporary social and cultural processes evoke relationality, but relational analysis differs from “relationistic” positions. Most existing approaches, both historical and modern, cannot be considered relational sociology in a true sense unless the social relation is conceived as a reality sui generis and society is conceptualized as a network of social relations.

“Turn” refers to a gradual transformation of the field of scientific theories, rather than to a scientific revolution. Several characteristic features of a “turn” appear to correspond well with significant traits of the relational turn: an epistemological rupture, which is brought about by introducing an innovative vocabulary that opens up new analytic perspectives;  an attempt to reconstruct the scientific domains of knowledge under conditions of their growing fragmentation; introduction of a novel perspective that shows existing knowledge in a new light; moving on from the research object to the category of analysis. These are the features of a genuine new intellectual movement that enters into debates and polemics, particularly as regards various ways of understanding relations and relationality.

The synergetic effect of a creative exchange of ideas between the founders of theories that have been independently pursued – the relational theory of society developed by Pierpaolo Donati and the theory of morphogenic society, developed on the basis of critical realism by Margaret S. Archer – proves particularly fruitful for the study of the after-modern and the new possibilities of a morphogenic society, in which the challenge of re-articulating social relations remains of central importance.

The aim of this special issue is to reflect upon the innovative potential of contemporary relational theorizing of society, culture, and persons and to go beyond superficial statements on relational sociology by addressing these issues through in-depth investigations. We invite authors to take on problems of relational sociology by discussing its main assumptions, by conceptual clarifications, by re-articulating the concepts pertinent to understanding social phenomena in relational terms, and by empirical studies guided by methodological rules of relational analysis.

http://www.stanrzeczy.edu.pl

 

 

Please see my related posts:

Boundary Spanning in Multinational and Transnational Corporations

Relational Turn in Economic Geography

Networks and Hierarchies

Boundaries and Relational Sociology

Autocatalysis, Autopoiesis and Relational Biology

Society as Communication: Social Systems Theory of Niklas Luhmann

Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

BOUNDARIES/NETWORKS

Chapter of Book ME++

Click to access 9780262633130_sch_0001.pdf

 

 


Relational Sociology: Transatlantic Impulses for the Social Sciences

International Symposium, Berlin, September 25/26, 2008

http://www.relational-sociology.de

 

 

 

Symposium on Relational Sociology

https://sozlog.wordpress.com/2008/09/29/symposion-on-relational-sociology/

 

Relational sociology

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relational_sociology

 

 

 

Networks and Boundaries

Athanasios Karafillidis

RWTH Aachen University
Correspondence: atha@karafillidis.com

Paper presented at the International Symposium
„Relational Sociology: Transatlantic Impulses for the Social Sciences“,
Berlin,

September 25-26, 2008

Click to access Netbound.pdf

 

 

Theorising Borders as Mechanisms of Connection

Anthony Cooper

Click to access 2013cooperaphd.pdf

 

 

Boundaries, Hierarchies and Networks in Complex Systems

PAUL CILLIERS

2001

Click to access Cilliers-2001-Boundaries-Hierarchies-and-Networks.pdf

 

Fractal Boundaries of Complex Networks

Jia Shao, Sergey V. Buldyrev, Reuven Cohen
Maksim Kitsak1, Shlomo Havlin, and H. Eugene Stanley

Click to access boundaries.pdf

 

Rethinking the Financial Network

Speech given by
Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director, Financial Stability, Bank of England

At the Financial Student Association, Amsterdam

28 April 2009

Click to access speech386.pdf

 

 

 

Knowledge, limits and boundaries

Paul Cilliers

Click to access cilliers%202005%20knowledge%20limits.pdf

 

 

On the Status of Boundaries, both Natural and Organizational: A Complex Systems Perspective

Kurt A. Richardson & Michael R. Lissack

Click to access 6b5711dc6782e451ad32078b799cd487cb3b.pdf

Exploring System Boundaries: Complexity Theory and Legal Autopoiesis

Thomas Edward Webb

Click to access T.E._Webb_Exploring_System_Boundaries_accepted_version_.pdf

 

 

The Role of Leaders in Managing Organisation Boundaries

Click to access v10286-012-0001-0.pdf

 

 

 

Managing Boundary Spanning Elements: An Introduction

Sunil Sahadev, Keyoor Purani, and Neeru Malhotra

https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Michel_Rod/publication/272733714_Sahadev_S_Purani_K_and_Malhotra_N_eds_Boundary_Spanning_Elements_and_the_Marketing_Function_in_Organizations_Springer/links/5566139008aec22682ff167f/Sahadev-S-Purani-K-and-Malhotra-N-eds-Boundary-Spanning-Elements-and-the-Marketing-Function-in-Organizations-Springer.pdf#page=8

 

 

 

 

Boundary-Spanning in Organizations: Network, Influence and Conflict

Edited by Janice Langan Fox, Cary Cooper

 

https://www.routledge.com/Boundary-Spanning-in-Organizations-Network-Influence-and-Conflict/Langan-Fox-Cooper/p/book/9780415628839

A Borderless World and Nationless Firms?

Click to access prism_chapter.pdf

 

 

 

 

ADAPTATION AND THE BOUNDARY OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS

Arnaud Costinot
Lindsay Oldenski
James E. Rauch

January 2009

Click to access w14668.pdf

http://economics.mit.edu/files/6456

 

The Boundaries of Multinational Enterprises and the Theory of International Trade

James R. Markusen

http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.9.2.169

 

Incomplete Contracts and the Boundaries of the Multinational Firm

Nathan Nunn

Daniel Trefler§

June 2008

Click to access NunnTreflerPaper.pdf

 

 

Complexity and Philosophy

Francis HEYLIGHEN

Paul CILLIERS,

Carlos GERSHENSON

Click to access 0604072.pdf

 

 

 

Complexity, Deconstruction and Relativism

Paul Cilliers

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.466.6144&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Click to access The_importance_of_a_certain_slowness.pdf

 

 

Towards an Economy of Complexity: Derrida, Morin and Bataille

Oliver Human

Stellenbosch University, South Africa

Paul Cilliers

Click to access Human_Complexity.pdf

 

 

 

The architecture of complexity

Herbert Simon

Click to access Thearchitectureofcomplexity.pdf

 

 

 

 

Complexity and postmodernism

Understanding complex systems

Paul Cilliers

Click to access Paul-Cilliers-Complexity-and-Postmodernism-Understanding-Complex-Systems-1998.pdf

 

 

Complexity, Difference and Identity
An Ethical Perspective

Paul Cilliers, Rika Preiser (Eds.)

http://www.springer.com/us/book/9789048191864

 

Introduction to Critical Complexity. Collected Essays by Paul Cilliers

Click to access Introduction-to-Critical-Complexity-Collected-Essays-by-Paul-Cilliers.pdf

 

 

Chapter 2
The Relational Turn in Social Sciences

Beyond Leadership
A Relational Approach to Organizational Theory in Education

Authors: Eacott, Scott

http://www.springer.com/us/book/9789811065675

http://scotteacott.com/reading-list/

 

 

Relational Sociology: A New Paradigm for the Social Sciences

By Pierpaolo Donati

 

 

 

Conceptualizing Relational Sociology: Ontological and Theoretical Issues

edited by C. Powell, F. Dépelteau

 

Applying Relational Sociology: Relations, Networks, and Society,

edited by Francçois Depélteau and Christopher Powell.
Hampshire, UK: Palgrave Macmillan,

 

 

 

Birth and development of the relational theory of society:
a journey looking for a deep ‘relational sociology

Click to access donati_birth_and_development_of_the_relational_theory_of_society.pdf

 

 

 

Beyond the Manifesto: Mustafa Emirbayer and Relational Sociology

Lily Liang Sida Liu

Click to access Working-Paper-2017-02.pdf

 

 

 

 

Towards Relational Sociology

By Nick Crossley

 

 

 

 

Manifesto for a Relational Sociology

Mustafa Emirbayer

The American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 103, No. 2. (Sep., 1997), pp. 281-317

Click to access Mustafa%20Emirbayer_Manifesto%20for%20a%20Relational%20Sociology.pdf

 

 

 

TOWARDS A CONCEPTUALIZATION OF BORDER: THE CENTRAL EUROPEAN EXPERIENCE

by Josef Langer (Klagenfurt)

Click to access JLanger3.pdf

 

 

 

 

THE STUDY OF BOUNDARIES IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

Michele Lamont and Vira ́g Molnar

Click to access m.lamont-v.molnar-the_study_of_boundaries.pdf

 

 

 

Beyond “the relationship between the individual and society”: broadening and deepening relational thinking in group analysis

Sasha Roseneil

Click to access 11305548.pdf

 

 

 

The Relational Turn in Sociology: Implications for the Study of Society, Culture, and Persons

Special issue of the academic journal Stan Rzeczy [State of Affairs]

https://calenda.org/385129?file=1

Click to access relational_turn_speakers.pdf

 

 

NETWORKS IN THE SOCIAL SCIENCES: COMPARING ACTOR-NETWORK THEORY AND SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS

LILLA VICSEK1 – GÁBOR KIRÁLY – HANNA KÓNYA

The Collapse of Global Trade during Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009

The Collapse of Global Trade during Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009

There are three broad categories of global Trade.

  • Trade in Commodities
  • Trade in Manufactured Goods
  • Trade in Services

During the Financial Crisis, Trade in commodities declined due to increase in Prices.

Trade in Services were largely unaffected.

Trade in Manufactured goods declined sharply for variety of reasons not yet entirely clear.

 

Potential Causes for decline

  • Fall in Aggregate Demand of goods
  • Constrained Trade Finance
  • Increase in Trade Barriers
  • Impact of Global Value Chains

 

From GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN A POSTCRISIS WORLD A DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE

The global economic crisis of 2008–09 has revealed the interdependence of the world economy. The financial crisis originated in the United States, but the resulting economic downturn quickly spread to the rest of the world. Trade, along with finance, was one of the main vectors of transmission of the crisis. In 2009, there was a massive contraction in global trade—minus 13 percent. The contraction was largely a reflection of a drop in demand, especially for durable goods. The fact that the shock was transmitted very rapidly reflects the increasing reliance by businesses on so-called global value chains (GVCs)—the process of ever-finer specialization and geographic fragmentation of production, with the more labor-intensive parts of the production process transferred to developing countries. In a world where GVCs are the prevalent business model for multinational corporations, a reduction in demand for final products by global buyers implies that demand shocks are immediately transmitted “upstream” to subcontractors in developing countries.

 

From Resilient to the crisis? Global supply chains and trade flows

According to the most recent IMF estimates (IMF 2009), the ongoing recovery will drive a wedge between output and trade. Output is supposed to shrink by ‘only’ 1.1% at the end of 2009 (-3.4% in advanced economies), but world trade is forecast to still experience a drop of -11.9%. While other estimates put the latter figure at –9% (WTO, World Bank), it is indisputable that during 2009 official figures recording trade flows will fall much more than GDP.

Apart from its magnitude, the fall in trade in 2009 has also been quite homogeneous across all countries (more than 90% of OECD countries have exhibited simultaneously a decline in exports and imports exceeding 10%, as noted by Araujo and Olivera Martins 2009). This fall has also been very fast, with trade virtually grinding to a halt in the last month of 2008.1 These facts led Baldwin and Evenett (2009) to qualify the drop in trade during the crisis as “severe, sudden and synchronised”.

A number of transmission mechanisms have recently been proposed to account for these three attributes of the contraction of trade flows, many of which impinge upon the role that global supply chains might have played in exacerbating the drop in global demand.

The basic argument is that in a world characterised increasingly by vertical specialisation, goods are produced sequentially in stages across different countries – so-called international supply chains. The constituent parts and components of a final good crosses borders several times before the final product reaches the consumer; at each border crossing, the full value of the partially assembled good is recorded as trade. As a result, for a given reduction in world income, trade should decline “not only by the value of the finished product, but also by the value of all the intermediate trade flows that went into creating it”.

This implies that the extensive presence of supply chains does not automatically explain why world trade overshot the world GDP drop; other explanatory factors are needed. These may include:

  • The collapse in internal demand and production, affecting current and future level of (tradable) inventories worldwide;
  • Fiscal stimulus plans with a relatively stronger support of non-tradable sectors, like construction and infrastructures (Bénassy-Quéré et al. 2009);
  • The rise of ‘murky’ protectionism; and
  • The problems of trade finance with financial spreads still well-above ‘normal’ (i.e. pre-crisis) market rates (Auboin, 2009).

Do the above arguments mean that global supply chains are totally neutral as a transmission mechanism of the crisis from GDP to trade? Of course not. In all likelihood, however, the channels are much more complex than originally thought, and entail important compositional effects.

For the sake of argument, let us take the following story based on the idea that a relatively large part of the overreaction of trade has been caused by the sudden drying up of liquidity in trade finance. Auboin (2009) notes that, in the second part of 2008, spreads on short-term trade credit facilities suddenly soared to between 300 to 600 basis points above LIBOR, compared to 10 to 20 basis points in normal times, leading to a virtual freeze of important trade deals throughout the globe, with supply chain operations being disrupted by lack of financing, especially for developing country suppliers.

Under this assumption we would have a scenario in which the liquidity channel has led trade to overshoot the fall in demand, with the effect being larger within supply chains, as the trade financing of these operations is typically managed by large international financial institutions, particularly hit by the crisis.3

In this scenario, we would still obtain a severe, sudden and synchronised drop in trade flows, with the effects correlated with (but not caused by) the behaviour of global supply chains.

Moreover, under the same scenario, we would also observe that, during the crisis,trade falls more along the intensive margin (i.e. value per trade) than the extensive margins (i.e. number of traders). The reason being that, if the overreaction of trade was caused relatively more by liquidity constraints than by a disruption of supply chains, the above effects would lead to a reduction in the volume of trade, but not necessarily to a similar reduction in the number of traders worldwide.

This is exactly what Bricongne et al. (2009) find in a paper analysing the behaviour of French exporters during the crisis. Relying on monthly data for individual French exporters observed until April 2009, the authors find that the drop in French exports is mainly due to the intensive margin of large exporters, with small and large firms evenly affected once sectoral and geographical specialisation are controlled for. Interestingly, they also find that firms (small and large) in sectors more dependent on external finance are the most affected by the crisis.

While any conclusion must wait for more data to become available, there are good reasons to believe that the rise of global supply chains has not necessarily been the main cause of the recent “severe, sudden and synchronised” fall in global trade flows. Based on the available evidence, one may even be tempted to conclude that, under certain circumstances, international networks of production may also display some degree of ‘resilience’ to adverse shocks like the current crisis: supply-chain-related trade flows may react later (rather than sooner) to an adverse shock. Their fall may be smaller and, eventually, their recovery may happen faster relative to overall trade flows.

The observed resilience of supply chains may arise from some intrinsic attribute of production chains, as argued above. Alternatively, it may be the outcome of the political economy. Fearing that a collapse of supply chains would set off a sudden process of de-globalisation and implosion of international trade, governments may intervene in favour of supply chains. For example, the massive bail-outs of large financial institutions have helped their best customers, among them the big players within supply chains. Finally, of course, this indirect support of supply chains may have also been an unintended consequence of financial bailouts implemented for very different reasons.

 

From UNCTAD Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development

gvc

 

Key Terms

  • BLS ( Bureau of Labor Statistics)
  • UNCTAD ( United Nations Conference on Trade and Development)
  • NIPAs ( National Income and Product Accounts)
  • OECD ( Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development)
  • EBRD (European Bank for Reconstruction and Development)
  • WTO (world Trade Organization)
  • GATT (General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs)
  • ILO (International Labor Organization)
  • ADB (Asian Development Bank)
  • UNIDO ( United Nations Industrial Development Organization)
  • BEA ( Bureau of Economic Analysis)
  • Production Networks
  • Vertical Specialization
  • Production Fragmentation
  • Intermediate Goods
  • Network Linkages
  • Global Supply Chains
  • Global Value Chains (GVCs)
  • Production Sharing
  • Inter Industry Input Output Tables
  • Inter Country Input Output Tables
  • Global Networks
  • Multi National Companies ( MNCs)
  • Regional Economic Integration
  • Trade Globalization
  • Trade in Goods and Services
  • Trade in Value Added (TIVA)
  • World Input Output Database (WIOD)
  • OECD-WTO TIVA Database
  • UNCTAD-EORA GVC Database
  • Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Database
  • Institute of Developing Economies (IDE-JETRO) Asian IO Tables
  • World Input Output Network (WION)
  • Global Multi Regional Input Output (GMRIO) Framework
  • EXIOBASE/EXIOPOL EXIOBASE is a global, detailed Multi-regional Environmentally Extended Supply and Use / Input Output (MR EE SUT/IOT) database.

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

The Global Trade Slowdown: Cyclical or Structural?

Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo, and Michele Ruta

2015

Click to access wp1506.pdf

 

 

The future of global trade: Where are we heading and should we be concerned?

Gaaitzen de Vries
Bart Los
Robert Stehrer
Marcel Timmer

2016

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/11/the-future-of-global-trade-where-are-we-heading

 

 

Demand Spillovers and the Collapse of Trade in the Global Recession

Rudolfs Bems Robert C. Johnson

Kei-Mu Yi

2010

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.186.7680&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Vertical Linkages and the Collapse of Global Trade

Rudolfs Bems
Robert C. Johnson
Kei-Mu Yi

AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW
VOL. 101, NO. 3, MAY 2011

Click to access 600661c5f17781a38ca3168026b8663b8ebb.pdf

 

 

The Role of Vertical Linkages in the Propagation of the Global Downturn of 2008

Rudolfs Bems Robert C. Johnson

Kei-Mu Yi

2010

 

Click to access 0e43be03f9da1c48a385b94fbcc4904a3fb0.pdf

 

 

The Great Trade Collapse

Rudolfs Bems, Robert C. Johnson and Kei-Mu Yi

Annual Review of Economics
Vol.5:1-549 (Volume publication date August 2013)

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS DURING THE GREAT TRADE COLLAPSE

A BULLWHIP EFFECT?

by Carlo Altomonte, Filippo Di Mauro, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Armando Rungi and Vincent Vicard

2012

 

Click to access 169822.pdf

 

 

The bullwhip effect and the Great Trade Collapse

Veronika Zavacka

 

Click to access wp0148.pdf

 

 

Trade Finance and the Great Trade Collapse

By JaeBin Ahn, Mary Amiti, and David E. Weinstein

2011

 

Click to access Ahn-Amiti-WeinsteinAERPP.pdf

 

 

Economic Crisis and Global Supply Chains 

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Yvan Decreux, Lionel Fontagné & David Khoudour-Casteras

Click to access wp2009-15.pdf

 

 

 

The Financial Crisis and Global Supply Chains

 

Robert N. Mefford, University of San Francisco, USA

http://repository.usfca.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1010&context=fe

 

 

International Supply Chains and Trade Elasticity in Times of Global Crisis

Click to access ersd201008_e.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS: TRADE AND ECONOMIC POLICIES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Alessandro Nicita Victor Ognivtsev Miho Shirotori

 

Click to access itcdtab56_en.pdf

 

 

The Great Trade Collapse: Shock Amplifiers and Absorbers in Global Value Chains

Zhengqi Pan

June 2016

 

Click to access Zhengqi%20Pan_GPN2016_008.pdf

 

 

The Age of Global Value Chains: Maps and Policy Issues

 

Click to access JACB201530.pdf

 

 

Asia and Global Production Networks Implications for Trade, Incomes and Economic Vulnerability

 

Click to access asia-and-global-production-networks.pdf

 

 

Mapping globaL Value Chains

Koen De Backer and Sébastien Miroudot

2014

Click to access ecbwp1677.pdf

 

 

Mapping Global Value Chains:

Intermediate Goods Trade and Structural Change in the World Economy

Timothy J. Sturgeon

Olga Memedovic

2011

 

Click to access WP%2005%20Mapping%20Glocal%20Value%20Chains.pdf

 

 

 

World Investment Report 2013:

Global Value Chains: Investment and Trade for Development

2013

 

Click to access wir2013_en.pdf

 

 

Trade finance: developments and issues

Report submitted by a Study Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was chaired by John J Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

January 2014

 

Click to access cgfs50.pdf

 

 

East Asian Value Chains and the Global Financial Crisis

Genet Zinabou

2010

Click to access FR4-14-8-2010-eng.pdf

 

 

The collapse of global trade, murky protectionism, Recommendations for the G20

and the crisis

 

Edited by: Richard Baldwin and Simon Evenett

2009

Click to access 2009-03-murky-protectionism.pdf

 

 

Production Sharing in East Asia: Who Does What for Whom and Why?

 

Francis Ng and Alexander Yeats

1999

 

Click to access multi-page.pdf

 

 

PRODUCTION SHARING IN EAST ASIA: CHINA’S POSITION, TRADE PATTERN AND TECHNOLOGY UPGRADING

Laike Yang

 

Click to access gdsmdp20152yang_en.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS SURVEYING DRIVERS AND MEASURES

João Amador and Sónia Cabral

2014

 

Click to access ecbwp1739.en.pdf

 

 

A New Measurement for International Fragmentation of the Production Process: An International Input-Output Approach

Satoshi Inomata

October 2008

 

Click to access 175.pdf

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN A POSTCRISIS WORLD

A DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE

Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz Editors

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.364.8729&rep=rep1&type=pdf#page=97

 

 

THE NATURE AND GROWTH OF VERTICAL SPECIALIZATION IN WORLD TRADE

David Hummels Jun Ishii Kei-Mu Yi

March 1999

 

Click to access sr72.pdf

 

 

TRADE INTEGRATION IN EAST ASIA:
THE ROLE OF CHINA AND PRODUCTION NETWORKS

MONA HADDAD

2007

Click to access wps4160.pdf

 

 

Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?

Prema-chandra Athukorala

No. 56 | August 2010

Click to access wp56-trade-patterns-east-asia.pdf

 

 

Trade Integration and Production Network in East Asia

Pornnapa Leelapornchai

August 2007

 

Click to access Pornnapa.pdf

 

 

Trade patterns and global value chains in East Asia:
From trade in goods to trade in tasks

 

Click to access stat_tradepat_globvalchains_e.pdf

 

 

Global production sharing and trade patterns in East Asia

Prema-chandra Athukorala

June 2013

Click to access TU_VIROT,%20Ali_Reading2_Global%20Production%20Sharing%20and%20Trade%20Patterns%20in%20East%20Asia.pdf

 

 

Global Production Networks in Electronics and Intra-Asian Trade

Byron Gangnes

Ari Van Assche

2010

 

Click to access WP_2010-4.pdf

 

 

The Role of China, Japan, and Korea in Machinery Production Networks

Ayako OBASHI†

Fukunari KIMURA

March 2016

 

Click to access ERIA-DP-2016-10.pdf

 

 

China’s evolving role in global production networks: the decoupling debate revisited

Prema-chandra Athukorala

John Ravenhill

 

Click to access 2016-12_athukorala_ravenhill_wp_june_2016.pdf

 

 

International Production Networks And Changing Trade Patterns In East Asia: The Case Of The Electronics Industry

Dieter Ernst & Paolo Guerrieri

May 1997

Click to access 19970007.pdf

 

 

UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD TRADE COLLAPSE

Calista Cheung and Stéphanie Guichard

2009

http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?doclanguage=en&cote=eco/wkp(2009)70

 

 

GLOBAL TRADE: WHAT’S BEHIND THE SLOWDOWN?

IMF World Economic Outlook Report October 2016

 

Click to access c2.pdf

 

 

A Theory of Domestic and International Trade Finance

JaeBin Ahn

2011

Click to access 0c96052274d4abea86000000.pdf

 

 

The Great Trade Collapse: Causes, Consequences and Prospects

 

Edited by Richard Baldwin

2009

 

Click to access great_trade_collapse.pdf

 

 

Understanding the Weakness in World Trade

2015

 

Click to access eb201503_article01.en.pdf

 

 

The mystery of the missing world trade growth after the global financial crisis

Hanna armelius, Carl-JoHan Belfrage and Hanna stenBaCka

2014

 

Click to access rap_pov_artikel_1_141121_eng.pdf

 

 

Resilient to the crisis? Global supply chains and trade flows

Carlo Altomonte, Gianmarco Ottaviano

27 November 2009

http://voxeu.org/article/resilient-crisis-global-supply-chains-and-trade-flows

 

 

The great trade collapse: What caused it and what does it mean?

Richard Baldwin

27 November 2009

 

 

The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun

Andrei A. Levchenko

Logan T. Lewis

Linda L. Tesar

2009

 

 

Off the Clif  and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Financial Crisis

Davin Chory

Kalina Manova

This version: December 2009

 

 

WHY THE WORLD SUDDENLY CARES ABOUT GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAINS

GARY GEREFFI AND JOONKOO LEE

2012

 

 

China’s Slowdown: The First Stage of the Bullwhip Effect

Yossi Sheffi

September 09, 2015

 

 

Financial Crisis and Supply-Chain Financing

Leora Klapper and Douglas Randall

 

 

The mystery of the missing world trade growth after the global financial crisis

Hanna Armelius, Carl-Johan Belfrage and Hanna Stenbacka

2014

 

 

Trade Collapse, Trade Relapse and Global Production Networks: Supply Chains in the Great Recession

Escaith, Hubert

OECD, DEFI, WTO

28. October 2009

 

 

SPIDERS AND SNAKES: OFFSHORING AND AGGLOMERATION IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Richard Baldwin Anthony Venables

Working Paper 16611

2010

 

 

 

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS IN A POSTCRISIS WORLD A DEVELOPMENT PERSPECTIVE

Olivier Cattaneo, Gary Gereffi, and Cornelia Staritz

2010

 

 

Accounting relations in bilateral value added trade

Robert Stehrer

2013

 

Click to access wiod14.pdf

 

 

NETWORKS OF VALUE ADDED TRADE

Working Papers 2015

João Amador | Sónia Cabral

 

 

Trade patterns and global value chains in East Asia: From trade in goods to trade in tasks

WTO Report

 

 

Counting borders in global value chains

Kirill Muradov:

May 2016

 

 

Using Average Propagation Lengths to Identify Production Chains in the Andalusian Economy

ERIK DIETZENBACHER*, ISIDORO ROMERO LUNA** AND NIELS S. BOSMA

2005

https://idus.us.es/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11441/17372/file_1.pdf?sequence=1

 

 

Trade in Value Added: An East Asian Perspective

Satoshi Inomata

No. 451 December 2013

 

Click to access adbi-wp451.pdf

 

 

TRADE INTERCONNECTEDNESS: THE WORLD WITH GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS

2013

 

 

The globalisation of inflation: the growing importance of global value chains

by Raphael Auer, Claudio Borio and Andrew Filardo

 

 

 

 

GLOBAL MULTIREGIONAL INPUT–OUTPUT FRAMEWORKS: AN INTRODUCTION AND OUTLOOK

Arnold Tukker a b & Erik Dietzenbacher

2013

Click to access UNSD%20-%20Tukker%20-%20Overview%20on%20International%20IO%20Tables%20-%202013.pdf