Rise of Debt and Market Based Finance

Rise of Debt and Market Based Finance

It is also known as Non Bank finance or Shadow Banking.

The key difference between traditional banking and shadow banking is fragmented credit chains in the shadow banking.

Traditional Banking does

  • Maturity Transformation
  • Liquidity Transformation
  • Credit Transformation

While traditional banking has backstops

  • Deposit Insurance
  • Central bank

Shadow Banks are not regulated and do not have advantage of backstops.

Hence they are susceptible to systemic risk and runs.

Questions

  • What is Market based Finance?
  • How big is the market?
  • Institutions?
  • Instruments?
  • Who are the borrowers?
  • Who are the investors?
  • What are the risks in market based finance?
  • Role of Central Banks?
  • How to minimize risks?
  • Regulations? Macro Prudential policies?
  • How are banks involved in market based finance?
  • How are they connected to each other and others?

Key Terms

  • Market based Finance MBF
  • Non Bank Credit Intermediation NCBI
  • Shadow Banking
  • Financial Stability
  • Systemic Risk
  • Liquidity Risk
  • Broker Dealers
  • Non Bank Finance NBF
  • Balance Sheet Economics
  • Market Makers
  • Capital Markets
  • Money Markets
  • Money View
  • Money Flows
  • Network Dynamics
  • Regulatory Arbitrage
  • Credit Chains
  • Fragmented Credit Chains
  • Financial Supply Chains
  • Credit Chain Length
  • Growth of Debt

Growth and Size of Market based Finance

Image Source: BANK AND NONBANK LENDING OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS

Image Source: Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

Image Source: The Shadow Banking System in the United States: Recent Developments and Economic Role

Image Source: Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

Image Source: NON-BANK FINANCE: TRENDS AND CHALLENGES

Image Source: THE GROWTH OF NON-BANK FINANCE AND NEW MONETARY POLICY TOOLS 

Image Source: SHADOW BANKING AND MARKET BASED FINANCE

Structural Dynamics of Banking and Financial System

Changes prior to Global Financial Crisis

  • Rise of Debt
  • Rise of Market Based Finance
  • Increase in capital flows both domestic and cross border

Debt dynamics is related to assets side of balance sheet of financial intemediatory.

Market based Finance is related to liabilities side of balance sheet of Financial Intermediatory.

If the chains of financial intermediation are long, then both assets and liabilities of each participant are linked.

Intermediation results in increase of capital flows. From money markets to capital markets. From deposits to loans. From liabilities to assets. There is both pull and push of money flows in the financial system. Demand for capital and supply of capital. They both are linked by banks and non bank finance. Growth of debt is linked to growth of money markets and non bank finance.

Size of Nonfinancial Business and Household Credit

Image Source: FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT – NOVEMBER 2020

In a future post I will discuss debt in US and global financial system.

Please see my related posts for evolution of Financial System Complexity and Its dynamics.

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Funding Sources and Liquidity for US Commercial Banks

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Size and complexity arise together. Along with balance sheet expansion comes changes in links with counterparties (financial networks and interconnections).

Research continues in this area by several institutions and academics.

  • OECD
  • BIS
  • FED RESERVE
  • ECB
  • FSB
  • BOE
  • IMF
  • BOF
  • Others

Source: Structural developments in global financial intermediationThe rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation

The global financial crisis of 2008 underlined the importance for policy makers in understanding the scale and types of financial intermediation in their economies. During the financial crisis, non-bank financial intermediation was of particular concern to authorities, as such forms of ‘shadow banking’, contributed to both the root causes of the crisis, the transmission of financial contagion, and the amplification of shocks.

As this report is published, the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus Covid-19 has caused a global health crisis, has brought economic activity in some sectors to a halt, and has presented the greatest challenge to the global financial system since 2008. As then, understanding financial intermediation activities is critical to mapping the faultlines in the global financial system and mounting effective policy responses.

However, the shape of financial intermediation has changed in important ways since the global financial crisis. Activities in non-bank intermediation, including market-based intermediaries like investment funds and securitised products, have grown and are increasingly interconnected with financial markets. Understanding the interplay between these elements, and the benefits and risks of each, offers a more complete understanding of how global finance can contribute to sustainable economic growth. It also helps provide the full picture needed to help policy makers prepare for and respond to shocks, including pandemics.

“Structural developments in global financial intermediation: The rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation” shines a light on the evolution of global financial intermediation in three key ways. First, it maps the broad-based growth of financial intermediation relative to GDP in many advanced and emerging market economies, and with this growth a shift toward market-based finance. Second, it assesses the shift from equity to debt markets, and the growing imbalances in sovereign and corporate debt markets during a period of highly accommodative monetary policies. Third, it draws attention to key activities in credit intermediation that could contribute to structural vulnerabilities in the global financial system, including: a sharp rise of below-investment grade corporate debt, in particular leverage loans and collateralised loan obligations; the growth of open-ended investment funds that purchase high-yield debt and leveraged loans; and risks associated with the large stock of bank contingent convertible debt.

While these various activities have helped to satisfy investors’ reach for yield during years of market exuberance, they represent new potential faultlines of systemic risk in the event of exogenous shocks, be they from trade tensions, geopolitical risks or the current global pandemic. This report underlines the need for policy frameworks to adapt to market-based finance, and fully reflect the interaction between monetary, prudential, and regulatory tools on credit intermediation. It also underlines the need for dynamic microprudential and activities-based tools to help mitigate excessive risk taking with respect to liquidity and leverage.

By mapping the global financial system, evaluating growing imbalances and risks that could amplify shocks, and assessing the interaction between macro and regulatory tools, this report provides a practical complement to the OECD’s Policy Framework for Effective and Efficient Financial Regulations. Financial authorities should use this analysis to inform both their assessments of activities and risks, and efforts to maximise available tools to harness the benefits of market-based finance to support fair, efficient markets and sustainable economic growth.

Greg Medcraft Director, OECD Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs

Image Source: UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS INHERENT IN SHADOW BANKING: A PRIMER AND PRACTICAL LESSONS LEARNED

Image Source: THE ECONOMICS OF SHADOW BANKING 

Image Source: IS SHADOW BANKING REALLY BANKING?

Table Source: SHADOW BANKING AND MARKET BASED FINANCE

Table 1. A Stylized View of Structural Characteristics of Credit-based Intermediation

Characteristic:Traditional BankingShadow BankingMarket-based Finance
Key Risk TransformationsLiquidity, maturity, leverageCredit enhancement,liquidity, maturity, leverageLess emphasis on credit enhancement and less opaque vs. shadow banking
Institutions Involved in Intermediation Single entityCan be many entities, interconnected through collateral chains and credit guaranteesSingle/few entities
Formal Ex-anteBackstopYesNo / IndirectNo
Implied Sponsor Supportn.a.Yes, can sometimes be contingent liabilitiesNo(insolvency remote)
Example of EntitiesCommercial bankSynthetic CDO, Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV), CNAV MMF, ABCP ConduitBond mutual fund, Distressed debt or PE partnership,Direct lending by pension fund
Main Form of LiabilitiesDebt and deposits,Wholesale & retail-financedDebt,Mainly wholesale financedHighly diverse –Short and long-term debt and equity,Retail & wholesale financed
Key Resulting Financial Stability Risk Systemic risk(institutional spillovers)Systemic risk(institutional spillovers)Shift in price of risk (market risk premia)

My Related Posts

Shadow Banking

Economics of Broker-Dealer Banks

Evolution of Banks Complexity

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Repo Chains and Financial Instability

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Funding Sources and Liquidity for US Commercial Banks

Funding Strategies of Banks

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Key sources of Research

The growth of non-bank finance and new monetary policy tools 

Adrien d’Avernas, Quentin Vandeweyer, Matthieu Darracq Pariès  

20 April 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/growth-non-bank-finance-and-new-monetary-policy-tools

Financial Stability Report

November 2019

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Financial Intermediaries, Financial Stability, and Monetary Policy

Tobias Adrian and Hyun Song Shin
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports, no. 346 September 2008

US BROKER-DEALER LIQUIDITY IN THE TIME OF FINANCIAL CRISIS

https://www.shearman.com/perspectives/2020/05/us-broker-dealer-liquidity-in-the-time-of-financial-crisis

Unconventional monetary policy and funding liquidity risk

ECB

Structural developments in global financial intermediation

The rise of debt and non-bank credit intermediation

by

Robert Patalano and Caroline Roulet*

OECD

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/finance-and-investment/structural-developments-in-global-financial-intermediation-the-rise-of-debt-and-non-bank-credit-intermediation_daa87f13-en

Financial Stability Review, May 2020

ECB

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/html/ecb.fsr202005~1b75555f66.en.html#toc1

Structural changes in banking after the crisis

Report prepared by a Working Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was chaired by Claudia Buch (Deutsche Bundesbank) and B Gerard Dages (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

January 2018

BIS

BANK-BASED OR MARKET-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: WHICH IS BETTER?

Ross Levine

Working Paper 9138 http://www.nber.org/papers/w9138

NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
September 2002

Non-bank finance: trends and challenges

Financial Stability Review

Bank of France

2018

The Origins of Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: Germany, Japan, and the United States

Sigurt Vitols*

January 2001

Financial Stability Report

August 2020

Bank of England

Market-Based Finance:
Its Contributions and Emerging Issues

May 2016

Financial Conduct Authority

Bank-Based Versus Market-Based Financing: Implications for Systemic Risk

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/322088863_Bank-Based_Versus_Market-Based_Financing_Implications_for_Systemic_Risk

Off the radar: The rise of shadow banking in Europe 

Martin Hodula  

16 March 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/radar-rise-shadow-banking-europe

Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2019

2020

FSB

https://www.fsb.org/2020/01/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2019/

Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2018

FSB 2019

https://www.fsb.org/2019/02/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2018/

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017

FSB 2018

https://www.fsb.org/2018/03/global-shadow-banking-monitoring-report-2017/

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2016

10 May 2017

FSB 2015 Report

FSB 2014 Report

https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/r_141030.pdf?page_moved=1

FSB 2013 Report

FSB 2012 Report

FSB 2011 Report

Shadow Banking: Monitoring Vulnerabilities and Strengthening Policy Tools

https://www.garp.org/#!/risk-intelligence/all/all/a1Z1W0000054xEzUAI

BANK-BASED AND MARKET-BASED FINANCIAL SYSTEMS: CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISONS

Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Ross Levine*

June 1999

https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/18e5/660bef2325f326bb8077bd0dd6f5225b1bf8.pdf?_ga=2.215410079.942675951.1605328042-1052966156.1604782392

Off the Radar: Exploring the Rise of Shadow Banking in the EU

Martin Hodula

https://www.cnb.cz/en/economic-research/research-publications/cnb-working-paper-series/Off-the-Radar-Exploring-the-Rise-of-Shadow-Banking-in-the-EU/

https://voxeu.org/article/radar-rise-shadow-banking-europe

Shadow Banking: Economics and Policy

Stijn Claessens, Zoltan Pozsar, Lev Ratnovski, and Manmohan Singh

IMF

2012

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/Issues/2016/12/31/Shadow-Banking-Economics-and-Policy-40132

Bank-Based and Market-Based Financial Systems: Cross-Country Comparisons

A. Demirguc-Kunt

Published 1999

https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Bank-Based-and-Market-Based-Financial-Systems%3A-Demirguc-Kunt/cd8cf558db2f8404271050ba40408a28ac4fcbc4

Market-based finance: a macroprudential view

Speech given by
Sir Jon Cunliffe, Deputy Governor Financial Stability, Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, Member of the Financial Policy Committee and Member of the Prudential Regulation Committee

BOE/BIS

Asset Management Derivatives Forum, Dana Point, California Friday 9 February 2017

Shadow Banking and Market Based Finance

Tobias Adrian, International Monetary Fund 
Helsinki

September 14, 2017

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/09/13/sp091417-shadow-banking-and-market-based-finance

Transforming Shadow Banking into Resilient Market-based Finance

An Overview of Progress

12 November 2015

FSB

Mapping Market-Based Finance in Ireland

Simone Cima, Neill Killeen and Vasileios Madouros1,2 

Central Bank of Ireland
December 13, 2019

BANK AND NONBANK LENDING OVER THE PAST 70 YEARS

FDIC

Financial Stability Review

November 2019

ECB

Shadow Banking

Zoltan Pozsar, Tobias Adrian, Adam Ashcraft, and Hayley Boesky

FRBNY Economic Policy Review / December 2013

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/2013/0713adri.html

Shadow Banking and Market-Based Finance

Tobias Adrian and Bradley Jones

IMF

No 18/14

Why Shadow Banking Is Bigger Than Ever

DANIELA GABOR

https://jacobinmag.com/2018/11/why-shadow-banking-is-bigger-than-ever

The Non-Bank Credit Cycle

Esti Kemp, Ren ́e van Stralen, Alexandros P. Vardoulakis, and Peter Wierts

2018-076

Fed Reserve

The role of financial markets for economic growth

Speech delivered by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the European Central Bank, at the Economics Conference “The Single Financial Market: Two Years into EMU” organised by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna on 31 May 2001

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2001/html/sp010531.en.html

Bank deleveraging, the move from bank to market-based financing, and SME financing

Gert Wehinger

OECD

OECD Journal: Financial Market Trends Volume 2012/1
© OECD 2012

Shadow Banking: A Review of the Literature

Tobias Adrian Adam B. Ashcraft

2012 FRBNY

The Global Pandemic and Run on Shadow Banks

FRBKC

2020

https://www.kansascityfed.org/en/publications/research/eb/articles/2020/global-pandemic-run-shadow-banks

Shadow Banking: The Rise, Risks, and Rewards of Non-Bank Financial Services

Roy J. Girasa

The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking

ALAN MOREIRA and ALEXI SAVOV∗

THE JOURNAL OF FINANCE • 2017

Is Shadow Banking Really Banking?

Bryan J. Noeth ,  Rajdeep Sengupta

Saturday, October 1, 2011

FRBSL

https://www.stlouisfed.org/publications/regional-economist/october-2011/is-shadow-banking-really-banking

Three Essays on Capital Regulations and Shadow Banking

Diny Ghuzini
Western Michigan University, diny.ghuzini@wmich.edu

CLARIFYING THE SHADOW BANKING DEBATE: APPLICATION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Amias Gerety 2017

Institute of International Economic Law Georgetown University Law Center

Commercial Banking and Shadow Banking

The Accelerating Integration of Banks and Markets and its Implications for Regulation

ARNOUD W. A. BOOT AND ANJAN V. THAKOR

(prepared as revised version of Chapter 3 in The Oxford University Press Handbook, The Accelerating Integration of Banks and Markets and its Implications for Regulation, 3rd edition.)

The Shadow Banking System in the United States: Recent Developments and Economic Role

Tresor Economics

France

2013

https://www.tresor.economie.gouv.fr/Articles/ccfd4180-fddb-4333-bd16-0b91f2daa18c/files/6ae6455a-92be-43a5-a94d-91b03b38a8d8

Shadow Banking: Policy Challenges for Central Banks

Thorvald Grung Moe*

Levy Economics Institute of Bard College

May 2014

BANKS, SHADOW BANKING, AND FRAGILITY

Stephan Luck and Paul Schempp

2014 ECB

Restructuring the Banking System to Improve Safety and Soundness

Thomas M. Hoenig
Vice Chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation

Charles S. Morris
Vice President and Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Original version: May 2011 Revised: December 2012

Understanding the Risks Inherent in Shadow Banking: A Primer and Practical Lessons Learned

by David Luttrell Harvey Rosenblum and Jackson Thies

FRB Dallas

Shadow Banking Concerns: The Case of Money Market Funds

Saad Alnahedh† , Sanjai Bhagat

Towards a theory of shadow money

Daniela Gabor* and Jakob Vestergaard

The Economics of Shadow Banking 

Manmohan Singh

2013

Regulating the Shadow Banking System

GARY GORTON

ANDREW METRICK

Yale University

The Rise of Shadow Banking: Evidence from Capital Regulation

Rustom M. Irani, Raymakal Iyer, Ralf R. Meisenzahl, and Jos ́e-Luis Peydr ́o

2018-039

Fed Reserve

Shadow Banking: Background and Policy Issues

Edward V. Murphy

Specialist in Financial Economics

December 31, 2013

Shining a Light on Shadow Banking

The Clearing House

https://www.theclearinghouse.org/banking-perspectives/2015/2015-q4-banking-perspectives/articles/shining-a-light-on-shadow-banking

REGULATING SHADOW BANKING*

STEVEN L. SCHWARCZ

2011

Duke Law

Money Creation and the Shadow Banking System Adi Sunderam

Harvard Business School and NBER September 2014

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/27336543/sunderam_money-creation.pdf?sequence=1

Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report Chapter 2

Shadow Banking

THE SHADOW BANKING CHARADE

By Melanie L. Fein*

February 15, 2013

Assessing shadow banking – non-bank financial intermediation in Europe

No 10/ July 2016

by
Laurent Grillet-Aubert Jean-Baptiste Haquin Clive Jackson
Neill Killeen
Christian Weistroffer

ESRB

Shedding Light on Shadow Banking

Timothy Lane

Bank of Canada

shadow banking and capital markets

RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES

Group of Thirty

Shadow Banking and Market Based Finance

Tobias Adrian, International Monetary Fund 
Helsinki

September 14, 2017

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/09/13/sp091417-shadow-banking-and-market-based-finance

Financial Stability Report – November 2020

Federal Reserve

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2020-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2019-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-november-financial-stability-report-purpose.htm

https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/financial-stability-report.htm

Funding Sources and Liquidity for US Commercial Banks

Funding Sources and Liquidity for US Commercial Banks

Funding Types

  • Secured
  • Unsecured
  • Short Term
  • Long Term
  • Domestic
  • Foreign

Image Source: THE DARK SIDE OF BANK WHOLESALE FUNDING

Image Source: WHOLESALE FUNDING OF THE BIG SIX CANADIAN BANKS

Canadian Banks Funding Types

Canadian Banks Funding Instruments

MAPPING U.S. DOLLAR FUNDING FLOWS

US Dollar Funding Sources and Instruments
  • Interbank Funding Market
  • Money Market Mutual Funds Market
  • Repo Market
  • Fed Funds Market
  • Commercial Paper Market
  • Asset Backed Commercial Paper Market
  • Certificate of Deposits
  • Auction Rate Securities
  • Bilateral and Tri Party Repos
  • GSEs
  • GSE Mortgage Pools
  • Finance Companies
  • Broker Dealers
  • ABS Insurers

Major Trends prior to Global Financial Crisis of 2008

  • Decline of Banks and Growth of Mutual Funds
  • Rise of Market Based Finance (Non Bank Finance, Shadow Banking)
  • Globalization of Financial Intermediation
  • Rise of Repo Market
  • Securitization

Please see detailed discussion in this reference from which I have used most of the charts.

Economic Policy Review

Federal Reserve Bank New York

Special Issue: The Stability of Funding Models, Feb 2014

Decline of Banks and Growth of Mutual Funds

Rise of MArket based Finance

Also, known as Non Bank Finance, Shadow Banking

Globalization of Financial Intermediation

Rise of Repo Market

Securitization

How did Central Banks respended during the crisis?

Central Bank Backstops During Financial Crisis

During financial crisis, US Federal Reserve has provided emergency liquidity facilities for markets in which liquidity dried up.

  • AMLF Asset Back Comercial Papers Funding Facility
  • MMLF Money MArket Mutual Funds Funding Facility
  • CPFF Commercial Paper Funding Facility

Macro Prudential Policies and Regulations

For financial stability

Some of the important policies that aim at promoting stability are as follows:

  • deposit insurance
  • lender of last resort
  • supervision
  • capital requirements
  • reserve requirements
  • liquidity requirements
  • transparency and disclosure requirements

Key Terms

  • Market based Finance
  • Shadow Banking
  • Funding LIquidity
  • Funding Sources
  • Funding Instruments
  • Bank Liabilities
  • Interlinked Balance sheets
  • Interconnectivity
  • Balance Sheet Expansion
  • Money Flows
  • Systemic Risk
  • Financial Contagion
  • Capital Requirements
  • BASEL III
  • LCR Liquidity Coverage Ratio
  • Money Market Mutual Funds MMMF
  • Asset Backed Commercial Paper ABCP
  • Commercial Paper CP
  • Repurchase Agreements REPOs
  • Fed Funds
  • Interbank Funds
  • Exposure
  • Spillover
  • Counterparties
  • Cross Border Claims
  • Quadruple accounting

My related Posts

Funding Strategies of Banks

Shadow Banking

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Contagion in Financial (Balance sheets) Networks

Economics of Money, Credit and Debt

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Key Sources of Research

US dollar funding markets during the Covid-19 crisis – the money market fund turmoil

12 May 2020

BIS

Mapping U.S. Dollar Funding Flows

This interactive map shows how various institutions generally engage with one another, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, in the course of borrowing and lending U.S. dollar instruments in the money markets.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/blog/2019_LSE_Markets_Interactive_afonso

Recent stress in money market funds has exposed potential risks for the wider financial system

Prepared by Miguel Boucinha, Laura Capotă, Katharina Cera, Emmanuel Faïk, Jean-Baptiste Galléty, Margherita Giuzio, Maciej Grodzicki, Isabel Kerner, Simon Kördel, Luis Molestina Vivar, Giulio Nicoletti, Ellen Ryan and Christian Weistroffer

Published as part of Financial Stability Review, May 2020.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/focus/2020/html/ecb.fsrbox202005_07~725c8a7ec8.en.html

The circular flow of dollars in the world financial markets

Kashi NathTiwari

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/104402839090012C

The Euro-dollar market as a source of United States bank liquidity

Steve B. Steib

Iowa State University

Shadow Banking: The Money View

Zoltan Pozsar

Key Information on the Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF)

https://www.bostonfed.org/news-and-events/news/2020/03/key-information-money-market-mutual-fund-liquidity-facility.aspx

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/mmlf.htm

Managing the Liquidity Crisis

April 09, 2020

https://hbr.org/2020/04/managing-the-liquidity-crisis

Financial Stability Report

May 2020

Financial Stability Board

FED Reserve

Interbank lending market

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interbank_lending_market

Liquidity Risk and Credit in the Financial Crisis

BY PHILIP E. STRAHAN

FRBSF ECONOMIC LETTER

2012

The Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility

Marco Cipriani, Gabriele La Spada, Reed Orchinik, and Aaron Plesset

2020

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/05/the-money-market-mutual-fund-liquidity-facility.html

US money market funds and US dollar funding

Céline Choulet

BNP Paribas

2018

The Dark Side of Bank Wholesale Funding

Rocco Huang

Philadelphia Fed

Lev Ratnovski

Bank of England

A Macroeconomic Model of Liquidity, Wholesale Funding and Banking Regulation

Corinne Dubois* Luisa Lambertini􏰀

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Bank Wholesale Funding

Dong Beom Choi (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Hyun-Soo Choi (Singapore Management University)

Between deluge and drought: The future of US bank liquidity and funding

Rebalancing the balance sheet during turbulent times

Kevin Buehler Peter Noteboom Dan Williams

July 2013
McKinsey & Company

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/Risk/Working%20papers/48_Future%20of%20US%20funding.ashx

Can Banks Provide Liquidity in a Financial Crisis?

By Nada Mora

How important was the worldwide use of wholesale funds for the international transmission of the US subprime crisis? 

Claudio Raddatz  15 March 2010

https://voxeu.org/article/how-bank-credit-market-funding-helped-spread-global-crisis

The Role of Liquidity in the Financial System

Notes from the Vault

Larry D. Wall
November 2015

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cenfis/publications/notesfromthevault/1511

Global Banks, Dollar Funding, and Regulation

by Iñaki Aldasoro, Torsten Ehlers and Egemen Eren

Monetary and Economic Department March 2018, revised May 2019

Global Monitoring Report on
Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2019 

19 January 2020

Bank Financing: The Disappearance of Interbank Lending

March 05, 2018

https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/3/4/bank-financing-the-disappearance-of-interbank-lending

Liquidity Risk and Funding Cost

Taking Market-Based Finance Out of the Shadows

Distinguishing Market-Based Finance from Shadow Banking

2018

Blackrock

Wholesale Funding of the Big Six Canadian Banks

Matthieu Truno, Andriy Stolyarov, Danny Auger and Michel Assaf, Financial Markets Department

Bank of Canada Review

Liquidity Risk after the Crisis 

By Allan M. Malz

https://www.cato.org/cato-journal/winter-2018/liquidity-risk-after-crisis

Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report 2017

5 March 2018

The Federal Funds Market since the Financial Crisis

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2017-economic-commentaries/ec-201707-the-federal-funds-market-since-the-financial-crisis.aspx

Funding liquidity regulation

Allan M. Malz

The Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF)

Rosalind Z. Wiggins2,
Yale Program on Financial Stability Case Study

May 9, 2017, revised: October 10, 2020

Liquidity Risk and Credit in the Financial Crisis

BY PHILIP E. STRAHAN

Economic Policy Review

February 2014 Volume 20 Number 1

Special Issue: The Stability of Funding Models

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

Trends in Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the USA

To big to fail means too interconnected to fail.
As the balance sheets of banks have expanded so has their number of counterparties on both sides of balance sheets.

The US commercial banks have have expanded their balance sheets.

On assets side, the loans portfolio has expanded.

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

On liabilities side, the deposits and borrowings have increased.

US Federal Reserve publishes H8 report on Assets and Liabilities of the US commercial banks. Detailed information on aggregate data presented in this post can be obtained from it.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/h8notes.htm

On liabilities side, the borrowings from wholesale money markets and shadow banking contributed to systemic risk during 2008 financial crisis. Please see my posts on this subject.

Funding Strategies of Banks

Shadow Banking

There were also capital flows in US markets from foreign banks and other markets.

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

On liabilities side, because of increased borrowings from short term markets, the financial interconnections have also increased resulting in systemic risk and financial contagion.

On assets side, because of increased volumes of loan portfolios, the systemic risk and chances for financial contagion have increased.

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Contagion in Financial (Balance sheets) Networks

For analytical framework, accounting approach (Post Keynesian Economics) is one of the option.

Balance Sheet Economics – Financial Input-Output Analysis (using Asset Liability Matrices) – Update March 2018

Foundations of Balance Sheet Economics

Economics of Money, Credit and Debt

Morris Copeland and Flow of Funds accounts

Stock-Flow Consistent Modeling

Key Terms

  • Money View
  • Money Flows
  • Stocks and Flows
  • System Dynamics
  • Business Dynamics
  • Business Strategy
  • Asset Liability Management ALM
  • Balance Sheet Economics
  • Monetary Policy
  • Interest Rates
  • Credit
  • Debt
  • Money
  • Balance Sheet Expansion
  • Systemic Risk
  • Interconnectivity
  • Loan Portfolio
  • To big to fail
  • Networks
  • Funding Strategy
  • Market Liquidity
  • Funding Liquidity
  • Deposits
  • Interest Income
  • Non Interest Income
  • Borrowings
  • Wholesale Money Markets
  • Shadow Banking
  • International Capital Flows
  • Round Tripping
  • Global Liquidity
  • Eurodollar Market
  • Money Market Mutual Funds
  • Quadruple Accounting
  • Morris Copeland
  • Hyman Minsky
  • Wynn Godley
  • Perry Mehrling

Image Source: Liberty Street Economics 2017

AVERAGE NET INTEREST MARGIN OF BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 1995 TO 2019
Image Source: Statista

NET INTEREST MARGIN FOR ALL U.S. BANKS (USNIM)
Image Source: FRED

Total Assets, All Commercial Banks (TLAACBW027SBOG)
Image Source: FRED

Total Liabilities, All Commercial Banks (TLBACBW027NBOG)
Image Source: FRED

DEPOSITS, ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (DPSACBW027SBOG)
Image Source: FRED

My Related Posts

Balance Sheet Economics – Financial Input-Output Analysis (using Asset Liability Matrices) – Update March 2018

Foundations of Balance Sheet Economics

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Funding Strategies of Banks

Economics of Money, Credit and Debt

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Morris Copeland and Flow of Funds accounts

Key Sources of Research

Deposits, All Commercial Banks (DPSACBW027SBOG)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPSACBW027SBOG

Total Liabilities, All Commercial Banks (TLBACBW027NBOG)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLBACBW027NBOG

TOTAL ASSETS, ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (TLAACBW027SBOG)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLAACBW027SBOG

Between deluge and drought:
The future of US bank liquidity and funding

Rebalancing the balance sheet during turbulent times

McKinsey

2013

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/Risk/Working%20papers/48_Future%20of%20US%20funding.ashx

Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States – H.8

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/h8notes.htm

The geography of dollar funding of non-US banks1

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability – Update October 2020

My last post on this topic was in May 2019.

Research continues on this important topic. What are the effects of Monetary policy on Financial Institution?

Please see my previous posts to find the issues. In this post I have compiled papers and articles published since my last post in 2019.

Rational Decision making by the firms
  • Lend More – When margins decline, the volumes must go up to maintain or increase profits. This increases risk taking.
  • Diversify – Look for other sources of earnings
  • Consolidate – Merge with other banks as a business strategy to grow loan volumes.

How do banks make money? What is source of their income? How much is Net interest income? How much is Non Interest Income?

As you can see from the graphs below, Net interest income of banks is going up. Although the net interest margins are down, Banks are earning their income mostly from net interest income.

Volumes of Outstanding loans must be going up to make up for decrease in margins.

Sources of interest income can be

  • Commercial loans
  • Real Estate loans
  • Auto Loans
  • Credit cards
  • Student Loans

Additionally consolidation among the banks can be partially explained by the decling number of banks. See graph below.

Diversification to find other sources of earnings.

Image Source: FRED
EFFECTIVE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE (FEDFUNDS)

Image Source: FRED
NET INTEREST MARGIN FOR ALL U.S. BANKS (USNIM)

Image Source: Statista
AVERAGE NET INTEREST MARGIN OF BANKS IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 1995 TO 2019

Image Source: Liberty Street Economics 2017

Image Source: FRED
BANK’S NON-INTEREST INCOME TO TOTAL INCOME FOR UNITED STATES

Image Source: FRED
Net Interest Income for Commercial Banks in United States

Image Source: FRED
Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTBKCR)

Image Source: FRED
Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTLL)

Image Source: FRED
Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS)

Image Source: FRED
REAL ESTATE LOANS, ALL COMMERCIAL BANKS (REALLN)

Image Source: FRED
Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks (CONSUMER)

Image Source: FRED
COMMERCIAL BANKS IN THE U.S. (USNUM)

Key Terms

  • Net Interest Margin
  • Profitability
  • Interest Income
  • Non Interest Income
  • Monetary Policy
  • Fed Funds Rate
  • 10 Year T Bond’s Rate
  • Shadow Banking
  • Search for Yield
  • Risk Taking
  • Housing Loans
  • Auto Loan
  • Deposits
  • Credit Cards
  • Money Markets Mutual Funds
  • Money Markets
  • Capital Markets
  • International Capital Flows
  • Diversification
  • Mergers
  • To Big to Fail
  • Non Core Business

My Related Posts

Low Interest Rates and Bank’s Profitability – Update May 2019

Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Profitability : Update July 2017

Low Interest Rates and Banks Profitability: Update – December 2016

Impact of Low Interest Rates on Bank’s Profitability

Non Interest Income of Banks: Diversification and Consolidation

Evolution of Banks Complexity

Shadow Banking

Funding Strategies of Banks

Low Interest Rates and Risk taking channel of Monetary Policy

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Key Sources of Research

Bank profitability and risk‐taking under low interest rates

Jacob A. Bikker1,2 | Tobias M. Vervliet3

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/321277826_Bank_profitability_and_risk-taking_under_low_interest_rates

How banks can ease the pain of negative interest rates

March 3, 2020 | Article

https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/how-banks-can-ease-the-pain-of-negative-interest-rates#

Bank intermediation when interest rates are very low for long 

Michael Brei, Claudio Borio, Leonardo Gambacorta  

07 February 2020

https://voxeu.org/article/bank-intermediation-when-interest-rates-are-very-low-long

Implications of negative interest rates for the net interest margin and lending of euro area banks

by Melanie Klein

Monetary and Economic Department 

March 2020

Are Banks Exposed to Interest Rate Risk?

Pascal Paul and Simon W. Zhu

2020-16 | June 22, 2020 | Research from Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Negative rates and the transmission of monetary policy

Prepared by Miguel Boucinha and Lorenzo Burlon[1]

Published as part of the ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 3/2020.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/articles/2020/html/ecb.ebart202003_02~4768be84e7.en.html#toc2

Is there a zero lower bound?
The effects of negative policy rates on banks and firms

Revised June 2020


The impact of very low interest rates on bank profitability

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/financial-stability/financial-stability-report/fsr-november-2019/the-impact-of-very-low-interest-rates-on-bank-profitability

Bank intermediation activity in a low interest rate environment

by Michael Brei, Claudio Borio and Leonardo Gambacorta

Monetary and Economic Department August 2019

Do Negative Interest Rates Explain Low Profitability of European Banks?1

Nicholas Coleman* and Viktors Stebunovs*

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/do-negative-interest-rates-explain-low-profitability-of-european-banks-20191129.htm

Monetary Policy and Bank Equity Values in a Time of Low and Negative Interest Rates1

Miguel Ampudia2 and Skander J. Van den Heuvel3 May 2019

Negative Interest Rates, Bank Profitability and Risk-taking

Whelsy Boungou

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334528681_Negative_Interest_Rates_Bank_Profitability_and_Risk-taking

Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment: A Follow-up and a Rejoinder

By Charles Goodhart and Ali Kabiri

Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability in a Low Interest Rate Environment

Carlo Altavilla, Miguel Boucinha and José-Luis Peydró

Barcelona GSE Working Paper: 1101 | May 2019

https://www.barcelonagse.eu/research/working-papers/monetary-policy-and-bank-profitability-low-interest-rate-environment

Going Negative at the Zero Lower Bound: The Effects of Negative Nominal Interest Rates

Mauricio Ulate Campos Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

September 2019

NEGATIVE NOMINAL INTEREST RATES AND THE BANK LENDING CHANNEL

Gauti B. Eggertsson Ragnar E. Juelsrud Lawrence H. Summers Ella Getz Wold

Working Paper 25416

Implications of negative interest rates for the net interest margin and lending of euro area banks

Melanie Klein

Negative Nominal Interest Rates: A Primer

https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2019/11/30/negative-nominal-interest-rates-a-primer

Trends in the Noninterest Income of Banks

Joseph G. Haubrich and Tristan Young

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2019-economic-commentaries/ec-201914-trends-in-the-noninterest-income-of-banks.aspx

Negative interest rates in the euro area: does it hurt banks?

https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/negative-interest-rates-in-the-euro-area-does-it-hurt-banks_d3227540-en

Interest rate pass-through in the low interest rate environment

Average net interest margin of banks in the United States from 1995 to 2019

https://www.statista.com/statistics/210869/net-interest-margin-for-all-us-banks/

Effective Federal Funds Rate (FEDFUNDS)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/obfrinfo

How low interest rates can hurt competition, and the economy

They help big companies more than small ones, depressing investment and productivity

https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2019/article/how-low-interest-rates-can-hurt-competition-and-economy

Monetary Policy Report

June 12, 2020

Federal Reserve

The Long Decline of Global Interest Rates

Posted On :  Published By : BER staff

GLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT:

Markets in the Time of COVID-19

Chapter 4

April 2020

IMF

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR/Issues/2020/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2020

Low Interest Rates and Bank Profits

Katherine Di Lucido, Anna Kovner, and Samantha Zeller

Liberty Street Economics

2017

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/06/low-interest-rates-and-bank-profits.html

Bank’s Non-Interest Income to Total Income for United States (DDEI03USA156NWDB)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDEI03USA156NWDB

Net Interest Income for Commercial Banks in United States

Net Interest Margin for all U.S. Banks (USNIM)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USNIM

Commercial Banks in the U.S. (USNUM)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USNUM

Loans and Leases in Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTLL)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTLL

Bank Credit, All Commercial Banks (TOTBKCR)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTBKCR

Commercial and Industrial Loans, All Commercial Banks (BUSLOANS)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BUSLOANS

Consumer Credit

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/categories/101

Real Estate Loans, All Commercial Banks (REALLN)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REALLN

Consumer Loans, All Commercial Banks (CONSUMER)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CONSUMER

Low Interest Rates and Bank’s Profitability – Update May 2019

Low Interest Rates and Bank’s Profitability – Update May 2019

My last post on this important topic was in 2017.  Since then several new articles and research papers have been published. I have compiled them in this post.  Please see references.

In my posts I have shown how many trends in economics for the last thirty years can be explained by unintendend consequences of US Federal Researve monetary policy of lowering interest rates to boost economic growth.

  • Rise of Shadow Banking – MMMF
  • Rise of International capital flows in USA
  • Growth of Consumer credit – Credit Cards and Housing Loans
  • Decline in Net Interest Margins of the Banks
  • Risk taking by banks to maintain and increase their profits
  • Rise of Non interest income of Banks
  • Rise of Non core business of banks
  • Rise of Mergers/Acquisitions/Consolidation in Banking sector

Related to these are:

  • Business Investments by Production side of economy
  • Increase in Market concentration of Products
  • Increase in Mergers and Acquisitions/consolidation among Product market businesses
  • Decreasing monitory policy effectiveness
  • Wrong economic growth forecasts
  • Secular Stagnation Hypothesis
  • Rise of Outsourcing and global value chains
  • Free Trade agreements
  • Increase in Ineqality of wealth and Income
  • Increase in corporate profits and equities market
  • Increase in corporate savings
  • Increase in share buybacks, and dividends payouts

 

 

and this one,

Increasing Market Concentration in USA: Update April 2019

Key Sources of Research:

Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment

Click to access ecb-wp2105.en.pdf

The “Reversal Interest Rate”: An Effective Lower Bound on Monetary Policy∗

Markus K. Brunnermeier and Yann Koby

This version: May 3, 2017

Click to access 16f_reversalrate.pdf

Click to access 26d_rir_bankofcanada.pdf

Interest Rate and Its Effect on Bank’s Profitability

Muhammad Faizan Malik1,2, Shehzad Khan1,2, Muhammad Ibrahim Khan1, Faisal Khan

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318648785_Interest_Rate_and_Its_Effect_on_Bank’s_Profitability

Bank performance under negative interest rates

VOXEU

https://voxeu.org/article/bank-performance-under-negative-interest-rates

How low interest rates impact bank

BBVA

https://www.bbva.com/en/how-low-interest-rates-impact-bank-profitability/

Negative-nominal-interest-rates-and-banking

Money and Banking

https://www.moneyandbanking.com/commentary/2018/10/21/negative-nominal-interest-rates-and-banking

Monetary policy and bank equity values in a time of low interest rates

Miguel Ampudia, Skander Van den Heuvel

 

Click to access ecb.wp2199.en.pdf

 

Bank Profitability and Financial Stability

Prepared by TengTeng Xu, Kun Hu, and Udaibir S. Das1

IMF

January 2019

 

https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WP/2019/wp1905.ashx

 

Financial stability implications of a prolonged period of low interest rates

Report submitted by a Working Group established by the Committee on the Global Financial System

The Group was co-chaired by Ulrich Bindseil (European Central Bank) and Steven B Kamin (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System)

July 2018

 

Click to access cgfs61.pdf

 

Monetary policy and bank profitability in a low interest rate environment

Carlo Altavilla Miguel Boucinha José-Luis Peydró
Economic Policy, Volume 33, Issue 96, October 2018, Pages 531–586,
Published: 09 October 2018

 

https://academic.oup.com/economicpolicy/article/33/96/531/5124289

 

 

Determinants of bank profitability in emerging markets

by E. Kohlscheen, A. Murcia and J. Contreras

Monetary and Economic Department

January 2018

BIS

Click to access work686.pdf

 

 

 

The Risk-Taking Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in the Euro Area

 

Matthias Neuenkirch, Matthias Nöckel

4/2018

 

Click to access cesifo1_wp6982.pdf

 

 

 

 

ADAPTING LENDING POLICIES WHEN NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES HIT BANKS’ PROFITS

Óscar Arce, Miguel García-Posada, Sergio Mayordomo and Steven Ongena

2018

Click to access dt1832e.pdf

 

 

Banks, Money and the Zero Lower Bound

Michael Kumhof

Xuan Wang

Click to access 2018-16.pdf

 

 

 

Banking in a Steady State of Low Growth and Interest Rates

by Qianying Chen, Mitsuru Katagiri, and Jay Surti

IMF

https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WP/2018/wp18192.ashx

 

 

 

Changes in Monetary Policy and Banks’ Net Interest Margins: A Comparison across Four Tightening Episodes

Jared Berry, Felicia Ionescu, Robert Kurtzman, and Rebecca Zarutskie

Federal Reserve

2019

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/changes-in-monetary-policy-and-banks-net-interest-margins-a-comparison-20190419.htm

 

 

 

Monetary Policy and Bank Profitability, 1870 – 2015

47 Pages Posted: 8 Feb 2019

Kaspar Zimmermann

University of Bonn

Date Written: January 25, 2019

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3322331

 

 

The effect of falling interest rates and yield curve to banks’ interest margin and profitability: cross-country evidence from the EU banks in the aftermath of 2008 financial crisis

Giorgi Chagoshvili

MS Thesis

 

https://repository.ihu.edu.gr/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11544/29306/The%20effect%20of%20falling%20interest%20rates%20and%20yield%20curve%20to%20banks%20%20interest%20margin%20and%20profitability%20cross%20country%20evidence%20from%20the%20EU%20banks%20in%20the%20aftermath%20of%202008%20financial%20crisis.pdf?sequence=1

 

 

 

 

Bank Performance under Negative Interest Rates

 

by Jose A. Lopez, Andrew K. Rose, and Mark M. Spiegel

 

Click to access VOXNNIR.pdf

Determinants of bank’s interest margin in the aftermath of the crisis: the effect of interest rates and the yield curve slope

  • Paula Cruz-García
  • Juan Fernández de GuevaraEmail author
  • Joaquín Maudos

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00181-017-1360-0

 

 

 

 

Key Determinants of Net Interest Margin of Banks in the EU and the US

MS Thesis

Charles University

Bc. Petr Hanzlík

 

https://dspace.cuni.cz/bitstream/handle/20.500.11956/99546/120297262.pdf?sequence=1

 

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

Global Liquidity and Cross Border Capital Flows

 

Types of Cross Border Capital Flows

  • Intra Bank Flows (Intra Firm Transfers)
  • Inter Bank Flows (wholesale Money Markets)
  • International Shadow Banking
  • Euro Dollar Market
  • International Bond and Equity Portfolio Flows

Growth of Capital Flows and FX Reserves

From INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Capitalflows

 

From INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Capital Flows 2

From Stitching together the global financial safety net

Cap Flows 6

 

Decline in Global Trade and Cross Border Capital Flows since 2008

 

From Global Liquidity and Cross-Border Bank Flows

Cap Flows 7

 

US DOLLAR FLOWS – Inter regional Flows

  • Not all dollar flows are from USA.
  • Through Eurodollar Market, firms in many countries are engaged in US Dollar transactions.
  • US Dollar dominates cross border capital flows.

 

From External dimension of monetary policy

Cap Flows 4

 

 

From Economic resilience: a financial perspective

 

Cap Flow 15

 

 

ALL CURRENCIES

From Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

Cap Flows 10

 

Who is Involved in Cross Border Capital Flows

From The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Cap Flows 8

 

Recent Trends in Capital Flows

 

From The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Cap Flows 9

 

Problem of Boundaries

From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Capital Flows 3

Cross Border (International) Capital Flows (Networks) for

  • Intra Bank Flows
  • Inter-bank Lending
  • Debt and Securities Flows
  • International Shadow Banking

Capital Flows are not confined to National Boundaries.

Boundaries for

  • Monetary Policy
  • National Income Accounting
  • National Currencies

Types of Flows

From From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 11

 

A. Round tripping of Capital Flows

From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 12

B. International Debt Issuance by Non Financial Corporates in Emerging Markets

 

From From Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Cap Flows 13

From Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage

Cap flow 14

 

From  What does the new face of international financial intermediation mean for emerging market economies?

capflows 16

 

 

From Economic resilience: a financial perspective

 

Cap Flow 16

Please see my other related posts:

The Dollar Shortage, Again! in International Wholesale Money Markets

Currency Credit Networks of International Banks

Low Interest Rates and International Capital Flows

Low Interest Rates and International Investment Position of USA

Economics of Trade Finance

External Balance sheets of Nations

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

 

Breaking the Triple Coincidence in International Finance

Hyun Song Shin

Bank for International Settlements
Keynote speech at seventh conference of
Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics

Basel, 5 September 2014

Click to access ifcb39_keynote-rh.pdf

 

 

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

Hyun Song Shin, BIS

Eighth IFC Conference on “Statistical implications of the new financial landscape”
Basel, 8–9 September 2016

Click to access ifcb43_zp_rh.pdf

 

 

 

Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance

by Stefan Avdjiev, Robert N McCauley and Hyun Song Shin

Monetary and Economic Department

BIS

October 2015

Click to access work524.pdf

 

 

 

Global Liquidity and Cross-Border Bank Flows

Eugenio Cerutti (International Monetary Fund)
Stijn Claessens (Federal Reserve Board)
Lev Ratnovski (International Monetary Fund)

Economic Policy
63rd Panel Meeting
Hosted by the De Nederlandsche Bank

Amsterdam, 22-23 April 2016

Click to access Global-liquidity-and-cross-border-bank-flows.pdf

 

 

 

Stitching together the global financial safety net

Edd Denbee, Carsten Jung and Francesco Paternò

Financial Stability Paper No. 36 – February 2016

BOE

Click to access fs_paper36.pdf

 

 

 

Gross Capital Inflows to Banks, Corporates and Sovereigns

Stefan Advjiev

Bryan Hardy

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

Luis Serven

January 2017

Click to access GrossFlows_jan17_final.pdf

 

 

External dimension of monetary policy

Hyun Song Shin

Remarks at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System conference
“Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the post-crisis period”

Washington DC, Friday 13 November 2015

Click to access sp151113.pdf

 

 

 

 

Financial deglobalisation in banking?

Robert N McCauley, Agustín S Bénétrix,
Patrick M McGuire and Goetz von Peter

TEP Working Paper No. 1717

July 2017

Click to access tep1717.pdf

 

 

Monetary policy spillovers and currency networks in cross-border bank lending

by Stefan Avdjiev and Előd Takáts
Monetary and Economic Department

March 2016

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2749311

 

 

 

Accounting for global liquidity: reloading the matrix

Hyun Song Shin
Economic Adviser and Head of Research

IMF-IBRN Joint Conference “Transmission of macroprudential and monetary policies across borders”

Washington DC, 19 April 2017

Click to access sp170419.pdf

 

 

 

 

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY RELATIONS: TAKING FINANCE SERIOUSLY

Maurice Obstfeld
Alan M. Taylor
May 2017

Click to access w23440.pdf

 

 

 

The Currency Dimension of the Bank Lending Channel in International Monetary Transmission

BIS Working Paper No. 600

Posted: 2 Jan 2017

Előd Takáts

Judit Temesvary

 

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2891530

Click to access The-Currency-Dimension-of-the-Bank-Lending-Channel-in-International-Monetary-Transmission.pdf

 

 

 

The Second Phase of Global Liquidity and Its Impact on Emerging Economies

Hyun Song Shin
Princeton University

November 7, 2013

 

Click to access The-Second-Phase-of-Global-Liquidity-and-Its-Impact-on-Emerging-Economies.pdf

 

 

 

 

BIS Quarterly Review

September 2017

International banking and financial market developments

 

Click to access r_qt1709.pdf

 

 

 

 

The Three Phases of Global Liquidity

https://www.springer.com/cda/content/document/cda_downloaddocument/9789812872838-c2.pdf?SGWID=0-0-45-1490720-p177066168

 

 

 

 

The Shifting Drivers of Global Liquidity

Stefan Avdjiev
Leonardo Gambacorta
Linda S. Goldberg
Stefano Schiaffi

Staff Report No. 819
June 2017

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr819.pdf?la=en

 

 

 

How Do Global Liquidity Phases Manifest Themselves in Asia?

Iwan J. Azis
Asian Development Bank and Cornell University
Hyun Song Shin
Princeton University
August 2013

Click to access Iwan-Azis-Paper-Shin-Global-Liquidity2013.pdf

 

 

 

 

GLOBAL LIQUIDITY—ISSUES FOR SURVEILLANCE

2014

IMF

Click to access 031114.pdf

 

 

 

 

The shifting drivers of global liquidity

Stefan Avdjiev, Leonardo Gambacorta, Linda S. Goldberg and Stefano Schiaffi

May 2017

FED NY

 

Click to access linda-goldberg.pdf

 

 

 

CAPITAL FLOWS AND GLOBAL LIQUIDITY

IMF Note for G20 IFA WG
February 2016

 

Click to access P020160811536051676178.pdf

 

 

 

 

Capital Flows, Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity∗

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

March 15, 2012

Click to access capital_flows_global_liquidity.pdf

 

 

Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

August 28, 2014

 

Click to access work458.pdf

 

 

The international monetary and financial system: a capital account historical perspective

by Claudio Borio, Harold James and Hyun Song Shin

2014

 

Click to access work457.pdf

 

 

Banks and Cross-Border Capital Flows: Policy Challenges and Regulatory Responses

 

Click to access CIEPR_banking_capital_flows_report_Sept12.pdf

 

 

 

Global dollar credit and carry trades: a firm-level analysis

Valentina Bruno

Hyun Song Shin

August 2015

 

Click to access work510.pdf

 

 

Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage

by Robert N McCauley, Patrick McGuire and Vladyslav Sushko

2015

 

Click to access work483.pdf

 

 

 

Global liquidity and procyclicality

Hyun Song Shin

Bank for International Settlements

“The State of Economics, The State of the World” World Bank conference,

8 June 2016

 

Click to access Shin-Son-Shin-Presentation.pdf

 

 

 

 

Economic resilience: a financial perspective

Note submitted to the G20 on 7 November 2016

December 2016

 

Click to access 2017-Germany-BIS-economic-resilience.pdf

 

 

Emerging Market Nonfinancial Corporate Debt: How Concerned Should We Be?,

Beltran, Daniel, Keshav Garud, and Aaron Rosenblum (2017).

IFDP Notes. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, June 2017.

 

Click to access emerging-market-nonfinancial-corporate-debt-how-concerned-should-we-be-20170601.pdf

 

 

 

 

International capital flows and financial vulnerabilities in emerging market economies: analysis and data gaps

By Nikola Tarashev, Stefan Avdjiev and Ben Cohen

Note submitted to the G20 International Financial Architecture Working Group

August 2016

 

Click to access othp25.pdf

 

 

 

Recent trends in EME government debt volume and composition

Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: Threat to Financial Stability

Viral Acharya et al
2015

 

 

 

 

 Dollar credit to emerging market economies

Robert N McCauley Patrick McGuire Vladyslav Sushko

2015

 

Click to access r_qt1512e.pdf

 

 

 

 

What does the new face of international financial intermediation mean
for emerging market economies?

Hyun song shin and PhiliP Turner, Bank for International Settlements

2015

 

Click to access financial-stability-review-19_2015-04.pdf

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

Balance Sheets, Financial Interconnectedness, and Financial Stability – G20 Data Gaps Initiative

 

From G-20 Data Gaps Initiative II: Meeting the Policy Challenge

In 2009, the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) endorsed 20 recommendations to address data gaps revealed by the global financial crisis. The initiative, aimed at supporting enhanced policy analysis, is led by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (IAG)1 plays the global facilitator role to coordinate and monitor the implementation of the DGI recommendations.

The financial crisis which started in 2007 with problems in the U.S. subprime market, spread to the rest of the world becoming the most severe global crisis since the Great Depression. One difference between the global financial crisis and earlier post-war crises was that the crisis struck at the heart of the global financial system spreading throughout the global economy. This required global efforts for recovery. As one element of the global response, in October 2009, the G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG) endorsed a DGI led by the Financial Stability Board (FSB) Secretariat and the IMF Staff. DGI was launched as an overarching initiative of 20 recommendations to address information gaps revealed by the global financial crisis.

Following the global financial crisis, in 2008, the G-20 leaders, at their meeting in Washington,9 committed to implement a fundamental reform of the global financial system to strengthen financial markets and regulatory regimes so as to avoid future crises.10 As part of the reform agenda, the FSB was established in April 2009 as the successor to the Financial Stability Forum (FSF) and started working as the central locus of coordination to take forward the financial reform program as developed by the relevant bodies. The obligations of members of the FSB were set to include agreeing to undergo periodic peer reviews, using among other inputs IMF/World Bank Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) reports. The G-20 leaders noted the importance of global efforts in implementing the global regulatory reform so as to protect against adverse cross-border, regional and global developments affecting international financial stability.

The components of the G-20 regulatory reform agenda complement each other with an ultimate goal of strengthening the international financial system. The DGI has been an important element of this agenda as the regulatory reform agenda items mostly require better data. The collection of data on Global Systemically Important Banks’ (G-SIBs) exposures and funding dependencies is among the steps towards addressing the “too-big-to-fail” issue by reducing the probability and impact of G-SIBs’ failing. The FSB work on developing standards and processes for global data collection and aggregation on securities financing transactions aims to improve transparency in securitization towards the main goal of reducing risks related to the shadow banking system. Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives markets including Credit Default Swap (CDS) were brought under greater scrutiny towards the main goal of making derivatives markets safer following the global crisis. DGI supported this goal by improving information in CDS markets. A number of other G-20 initiatives have strong links with the DGI project including the FSB work on strengthening the oversight and regulation of the shadow banking system; and on the work on global legal entity identifiers (LEI)11 which contribute to the robustness of the data frameworks with a more micro focus. The changing global regulatory reforms particularly the implementation of Basel III was also taken into consideration in the development of the DGI.

Surveillance Agenda

The importance of closing the data gaps hampering the surveillance of financial systems was also highlighted as part of the IMF’s 2014 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR).12 The 2014 TSR emphasized that due to growing interconnectedness across borders, financial market shocks will continue to have significant spillovers via both capital flows and shifts in risk positions. Also, new dimensions to interconnectedness will continue to emerge such as through the potential short-run adverse spillovers generated by the financial regulatory reforms. To this end, the TSR recommended improving information on balance-sheets and enriching flow-of funds data. The IMF has overhauled its surveillance to make it more risk-based. To this end, the IMF Managing Director’s Action Plan for Strengthening Surveillance following the 2014 TSR13 underlined that the IMF will revive and adapt the Balance Sheet Approach (BSA) to facilitate a more in-depth analysis of the impact of shocks and their transmission across sectors, and possibly initiate the global flow of funds to better reflect global interconnections (Box 1). This work requires data from the DGI as it will help support the IMF’s macro-financial work including in the key exercises and reports (i.e., Early Warning Exercise, FSAP, and GFSR).

Global Flow of Funds

Through the use of internationally-agreed statistical standards, data on cross-border financial exposures (IBS, CPIS, and Coordinated Direct Investment Survey (CDIS)) can be linked with the domestic sectoral accounts data to build up a comprehensive picture of financial interconnections domestically and across borders, with a link back to the real economy through the sectoral accounts. This work is known as the “Global Flow of Funds (GFF).”14 The GFF project is mainly aimed at constructing a matrix that identifies interlinkages among domestic sectors and with counterpart countries (and possibly counterpart country sectors) to build up a picture of bilateral financial exposures and support analysis of potential sources of contagion. The concept of the GFF was first outlined in the Second Progress Report on the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative and initiated in 2013 as part of a broader IMF initiative aimed at strengthening the analysis of interconnectedness across borders, global liquidity flows and global financial interdependencies. In the longer term, the GFF matrix is intended to support regular monitoring of bilateral cross-border financial positions through a framework that highlight risks to national and international financial stability. IMF Staff is working towards developing a GFF matrix starting with the largest global economies.

 

How Does the DGI Address the Surveillance Agenda?

As noted above, in the wake of the 2014 TSR the IMF Managing Director published an Action Plan for Strengthening Surveillance. Among the actions to be taken was that “The Fund will revive and adapt the balance sheet approach to facilitate a more in-depth analysis of the impact of shocks and their transmission across sectors.” This responded to a call from outside experts David Li and Paul Tucker in their external study for the 2014 TSR on risks and spillovers.37

Sectoral Analysis

Even though the 2007/2008 crisis emerged in the financial sector, given its intermediary role, the problems in the financial sector also affected other sectors of an economy. To this end, analysis of balance sheet exposures is essential given the increasingly interconnected global economy. As it is pointed out in the IMF TSR 2014, the use of balance sheets to identify sources of vulnerability and the transmission of shocks, could have helped detect risks associated with European banks’ reliance on U.S. wholesale funding to finance structured products. In June 2015, the IMF set out the way forward in a paper for the IMF Executive Board on Balance Sheet Analysis in Surveillance. 38 Sectoral accounts and balance sheet data are essential, including from-whom to-whom data, in providing the context for an assessment of the links between the real economy and financial sectors. The sectoral balance sheets of the SNA is seen as the overarching framework for balance sheet analysis as the IMF Executive Board paper makes clear. Further, the paper sets out a data framework for such analysis.39 Putting the sectoral balance sheets of the SNA in a policy context, the IMF has developed a BSA, which compiles all the main balance sheets in an economy using aggregate data by sector. The BSA is based on the same conceptual principles as the sectoral accounts, providing information on a from-whom-to-whom basis with an additional focus on vulnerabilities arising from maturity and, currency mismatches as well as the capital structure of economic sectors.

While currently not that many economies compile from-whom-to-whom balance sheet data, BSA data can be compiled from the IMF’s Standardized Report Forms, IIP, and government balance sheet data—a more limited set of data than needed to compile the sectoral accounts. The DGI-2 recommendations address key data gaps that act as a constraint on a full-fledged balance sheet analysis. The DGI recommends addressing such gaps through improving G-20 economies’ dissemination of sectoral accounts and balance sheets building on 2008 SNA, including for the non-financial corporate and household sectors. (Annex 1, Recommendation II.8) Given the multifaceted character of the datasets, implementation of this recommendation is challenging and progress has been slow. However, all G-20 economies agree on the importance of having such information and have plans in place to make it happen.

Understanding Cross-border Financial Interconnections

The crisis emphasized the fact that it is not possible to isolate the problems in a single financial system as shocks propagate rapidly across the financial systems. Indeed, the IMF, since 2010, has been identifying jurisdictions with systemically important financial sectors based on a set of relevant and transparent criteria including size and interconnectedness. Within this identification framework, cross-border interconnectedness is considered an important complementary measure to the size of the economy: it captures the systemic risk that can arise through direct and indirect interlinkages among financial sectors in the global financial system (i.e., the risk that failure or malfunction of a national financial system may have severe repercussions on other countries or on overall systemic stability.48 The 2014 TSR summed up the issue succinctly in its Executive Summary: “Risks and spillovers remain first-order issues for the world economy and should be central to Fund surveillance. Recent reforms have made surveillance more risk-based, helping to better capture global interconnections. Experience so far also points to the need to build a deeper understanding of how risks map across countries, and how spillovers can quickly spread across sectors to expose domestic vulnerabilities.”49 Four existing datasets that include key information on cross-country financial linkages are the IIP, BIS IBS, IMF CPIS and IMF CDIS. Together these datasets provide a comprehensive picture of cross-border financial interconnections. This picture is especially relevant for policy makers as financial connections strengthen across border and domestic conditions are affected by financial developments in other economies to whom they are closely linked financially. DGI-2 focuses on improving the availability and cross-country comparability of these datasets (Annex1, Recommendations II.10, 11, 12 and 13). The well-known IIP is a key data source to understanding the linkages between the domestic economy and the rest of the world by providing information on both external assets and liabilities of the economy with a detailed instrument breakdown. However, the crisis revealed the need for currency and more detailed sector breakdowns, particularly for the other financial corporations (OFCs) sector. Consequently, as part of the DGI, the IIP was enhanced to support these policy needs. Significant progress has also been made in ensuring regular reporting of IIP along with the increase in frequency of reporting from annual to quarterly. By end-2015 virtually all G-20 economies reported quarterly IIP data. The IBS have been a key source of data for many decades providing information on aggregate assets and liabilities of internationally active banking systems on a quarterly frequency. The CPIS data, while on an annual frequency, provided significant insights into portfolio investment assets. That said, both datasets had limitations in terms of country coverage and granularity. CPIS also needed to be improved in terms of frequency and timeliness. To this end, the DGI supported the enhancements in these datasets.

 

Key Terms:

  • G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI)
  • Financial Stability Board (FSB)
  • The Inter-Agency Group on Economic and Financial Statistics (IAG)
  • Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors (FMCBG)
  • Financial Stability Forum (FSF)
  • Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs)
  • Over-the-counter (OTC)
  • Credit Default Swap (CDS)
  • Global legal entity identifiers (LEI)
  • IMF Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR)
  • IMF Balance Sheet Approach (BSA)
  • IMF Global Flow of Funds (GFF)
  • IMF IIP (International Investment Positions)
  • BIS IBS (International Banking Statistics)
  • IMF CPIS (Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey)
  • IMF CDIS (Coordinated Direct Investment Survey)
  • IMF GFSR ( Global Financial Stability Report)

 

Other Related Terms:

  • Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs )
  • GLOBAL SYSTEMICALLY IMPORTANT INSURERS (G-SIIS)
  • Systemically Important Financial Market Utilities (G-FMUs)
  • Nonbank Financial Companies (G-SINFC)
  • Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC)

     

The IAG members are

  • BIS (Bank of International Settlements)
  • G20 (Group of 20 Nations)
  • IMF (International Monetary Fund)
  • OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
  • ECB (European Central Bank)
  • World Bank
  • Eurostat (European Statistics/Directorate-General of the European Commission)
  • UN (United Nations)

 

From G-20 Data Gaps Initiative II: Meeting the Policy Challenge

balancesheets

From G-20 Data Gaps Initiative II: Meeting the Policy Challenge

dgi

 

Progress of DGI ((DGI-I and DGI-II)

From G-20 Data Gaps Initiative II: Meeting the Policy Challenge

The first phase of the DGI was successfully concluded in September 2015 and the second phase of the initiative (DGI-2) was endorsed by the G-20 FMCBG. The key objective of the DGI-2 is to implement the regular collection and dissemination of comparable, timely, integrated, high quality, and standardized statistics for policy use. DGI-2 encompasses 20 new or revised recommendations, focused on datasets that support: (i) monitoring of risk in the financial sector; and (ii) analysis of vulnerabilities, interconnections and spillovers, not least cross-border.

Following the significant progress in closing some of the information gaps identified during the global financial crisis of 2007/08, the G-20 FMCBG endorsed, in September 2015, the closing of DGI-1. During the six-year implementation of DGI-1, significant achievements were obtained, particularly regarding the development of conceptual frameworks, as well as enhancements in some statistical collection and reporting. Regarding the latter, more work is needed for the implementation of some recommendations, especially in seven high-priority areas across G-20 economies, notably in government finance statistics and sectoral accounts and balance sheets.

In September 2015, the G-20 FMCBG also endorsed the launch of the second phase of the DGI. The main objective of DGI-2 is to implement the regular collection and dissemination of reliable and timely statistics for policy use. Its twenty recommendations are clustered under three main headings: (1) monitoring risk in the financial sector, (2) vulnerabilities, interconnections and spillovers, and (3) data sharing and communication of official statistics. The DGI-2 maintains the continuity with the DGI-1 recommendations while setting more specific objectives with the intention for the G-20 economies to compile and disseminate minimum common datasets for these recommendations. The DGI-2 also includes new recommendations to reflect the evolving users’ needs. Furthermore, the DGI-2 aims at strengthening the synergies with other relevant global initiatives.

The DGI-2 facilitates closing data gaps that are policy-relevant. By achieving its main objective, the DGI-2 will be instrumental in closing gaps in policy-relevant data. Most of the datasets covered by the DGI-2 are particularly relevant for meeting the emerging macro- financial policy needs, including the analysis of international positions, global liquidity, foreign currency exposures, and capital flows volatility.

The DGI-2 introduces action plans that set out specific “targets” for the implementation of its twenty recommendations through the five-year horizon of the initiative. The action plans acknowledge that countries may be at different stages of statistical development and take into account national priorities and resource constraints. The DGI-2 intends to bring the G-20 economies at higher common statistical standards through a coordinated effort; however, flexibility will be considered in terms of intermediate steps to achieve the targets based on national priorities, resource constraints, emerging data needs, and other considerations.

 

 

 

Key Sources of Research:

 

Second Phase of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI-2) Second Progress Report

 

Prepared by the Staff of the IMF and the FSB Secretariat September 2017

Click to access 092117.pdf

http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=290

 

 

 

Second Phase of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative (DGI-2) First Progress Report

 

Prepared by the Staff of the IMF and the FSB Secretariat September 2016

 

Click to access 090216.pdf

 

 

Sixth Progress Report on the Implementation of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative

 

Prepared by the Staff of the IMF and the FSB Secretariat September 2015

 

Click to access The-Financial-Crisis-and-Information-Gaps.pdf

 

 

Fifth Progress Report on the Implementation of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative

 

Prepared by the Staff of the IMF and the FSB Secretariat September 2014

Click to access 5thprogressrep.pdf

 

 

Fourth Progress Report on the Implementation of the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative

 

Prepared by the Staff of the IMF and the FSB Secretariat September 2013

 

Click to access 093013.pdf

 

 

 

Progress Report on the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative: Status, Action Plans, and Timetables

 

Prepared by the Staff of the IMF and the FSB Secretariat September 2012

Click to access 093012.pdf

 

 

 

Implementation Progress Report

 

Prepared by the IMF Staff and the FSB Secretariat June 2011

Click to access 063011.pdf

 

 

 

Progress Report Action Plans and Timetables

 

Prepared by the IMF Staff and the FSB Secretariat May 2010

 

Click to access 053110.pdf

 

 

 

Report to the
G-20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors

 

Prepared by the IMF Staff and the FSB Secretariat October 29, 2009

 

Click to access 102909.pdf

 

 

 

G-20 Data Gaps Initiative II: Meeting the Policy Challenge

by Robert Heath and Evrim Bese Goksu

2016

Click to access wp1643.pdf

 

 

 

Why are the G-20 Data Gaps Initiative and the SDDS Plus Relevant for Financial Stability Analysis?

Robert Heath

Click to access wp1306.pdf

 

 

 

Toward the Development of Sectoral Financial Positions and Flows in a From-Whom-to-Whom Framework

Manik Shrestha

 

Click to access c12835.pdf

 

 

An Integrated Framework for Financial Positions and Flows on a From-Whom-to- Whom Basis: Concepts, Status, and Prospects

Manik Shrestha, Reimund Mink, and Segismundo Fassler

 

Click to access wp1257.pdf

 

 

Financial investment and financing in a from-whom-to-whom framework

Mink, Reimund

Click to access 2011_dublin_61_01_mink.pdf

 

 

Users Conference on the Financial Crisis and Information Gaps

Conference co-hosted by The International Monetary Fund and The Financial Stability Board

2009

http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/2009/usersconf/index.htm

 

 

A Status on the Availability of Sectoral Balance Sheets and Accumulation Accounts in Advanced Economies not Represented by Membership in the G-20

2011

 

Click to access g20a.pdf

 

 

A Status on the Availability of Sectoral Balance Sheets and Accumulation Accounts in G-20 Economies

2011

 

Click to access g20b.pdf

 

 

AN UPDATE ON THE IMF-OECD CONFERENCE ON STRENGTHENING SECTORAL POSITION AND FLOW DATA IN THE MACROECONOMIC ACCOUNTS

FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 2, 2011

 

http://www.oecd.org/officialdocuments/publicdisplaydocumentpdf/?cote=COM/STD/DAF(2010)21&docLanguage=En

 

 

The Balance Sheet Approach:
Data Needs, Data at Hand, and Data Gaps (August 2009)

 

Alfredo Leone, Statistics Department, International Monetary Fund

 

Click to access leone_paper.pdf

 

 

Development of financial sectoral accounts

New opportunities and challenges for supporting financial stability analysis

by Bruno Tissot

2016

 

Click to access ifcwork15.pdf

 

 

A Flow-of-Funds Perspective on the Financial Crisis Volume I: Money, Credit

edited by B. Winkler, A. van Riet, P. Bull, Ad van Riet

 

 

A Flow-of-Funds Perspective on the Financial Crisis Volume II: Macroeconomic

edited by B. Winkler, A. van Riet, P. Bull

 

 

Financial investment and financing in a from-whom-to-whom framework

Mink, Reimund

2011

Click to access 650287.pdf

 

 

Expanding the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts’ Financial Sector

By Robert J. Kornfeld, Lisa Lynn, and Takashi Yamashita

2016

Click to access 0116_expanding_the_integrated_macroeconomic_accounts_financial_sector.pdf

 

 

Using the Balance Sheet Approach in Surveillance: Framework, Data Sources, and Data Availability

Johan Mathisen and Anthony Pellechio

2006

Click to access wp06100.pdf

 

 

Balance Sheet Analysis: A New Approach to Financial Stability

Surveillance

By Jean Christine A. Armas

2016

 

Click to access EN16-01.pdf

 

 

USING THE BALNCE SHEET APPROACH IN FINANCIAL STABILITY SURVEILLANCE:
Analyzing the Israeli economy’s resilience to exchange rate risk

 

Click to access JFS2007_HaimLevy_pres.pdf

Click to access dp0701e.pdf

 

 

 

A Balance Sheet Approach to Financial Crisis

Mark Allen, Christoph Rosenberg, Christian Keller, Brad Setser, and Nouriel Roubini

2002

Click to access wp02210.pdf

 

 

THE BALANCE SHEET APPROACH TO FINANCIAL CRISES IN EMERGING MARKETS

Giovanni Cozzi and
Jan Toporowski

2006

Click to access wp_485.pdf

 

 

Balance-sheets. A financial/liability approach

Bo Bergman

2015

 

Click to access bergman_paper.pdf

 

 

Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models

Dirk J Bezemer

2009

Click to access Bezemer_-_No_one_show_this_comming.pdf

 

 

 

Schumpeter Might Be Right Again: The Functional Differentiation of Credit

Dirk J. Bezemer
University of Groningen

Click to access the_functional_differentiation_of_credit.pdf

 

 

Causes of Financial Instability: Don’t Forget Finance

Dirk J. Bezemer

April 2011

 

Click to access wp_665.pdf

 

 

THE ECONOMY AS A COMPLEX SYSTEM: THE BALANCE SHEET DIMENSION

DIRK J BEZEMER

2012

Click to access ACS_1250047_1st_Prf.pdf

 

 

Did Credit Decouple from Output in the Great Moderation?

Maria Grydaki and Dirk Bezemer

June 2013

Click to access MPRA_paper_47424.pdf

 

 

 

Towards an ‘accounting view’ on money, banking and the macroeconomy: history, empirics, theory

Dirk J. Bezemer

2016

Click to access Camb._J._Econ.-2016-Bezemer-1275-95.pdf

 

 

Modelling systemic financial sector and sovereign risk

Dale F. Gray anD anDreas a. Jobst

2011

 

Click to access Gray_2.pdf

 

 

BALANCE SHEET ANALYSIS IN FUND SURVEILLANCE

2015

Click to access 061215.pdf

Click to access 071315.pdf

 

 

The role of external balance sheets in the financial crisis

Yaser Al-Saffar, Wolfgang Ridinger and Simon Whitaker

2013

 

Click to access fs_paper24.pdf

 

 

Global Conferences on DGI

June 2, 2016

http://www.imf.org/external/np/seminars/eng/dgi/

 

 

CAPITAL FLOWS AND GLOBAL LIQUIDITY

IMF Note for G20 IFA WG

February 2016

 

Click to access P020160811536051676178.pdf

 

 

Introduction to Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual, 6th Edition and BPM6 Compilation Guide

Click to access Link3_766_105.pdf

 

 

Introduction: ‘cranks’ and ‘brave heretics’: rethinking money and banking after the Great Financial Crisis

Geoffrey Ingham Ken Coutts Sue Konzelmann

Camb J Econ (2016) 40 (5): 1247-1257.

 

 

Network Analysis of Sectoral Accounts: Identifying Sectoral Interlinkages in G-4 Economies

by Luiza Antoun de Almeida

2016

Click to access wp15111.pdf

 

 

2014 TRIENNIAL SURVEILLANCE REVIEW—EXTERNAL STUDY—RISKS AND SPILLOVERS

Prepared By David Daokui Li and Paul Tucker

 

Click to access 073014e.pdf

Click to access 14-10.pdf

 

 

 

2014 TRIENNIAL SURVEILLANCE REVIEW—OVERVIEW PAPER

 

Click to access 073014.pdf

http://www.imf.org/external/np/spr/triennial/2014/

 

 

Measuring Global Flow of Funds and Integrating Real and Financial Accounts: Concepts, Data Sources and Approaches

Nan Zhang (Stanford University)

2015

Click to access zhang.pdf

 

 

Cross-border financial linkages: Identifying and measuring vulnerabilities

 

Philip R. Lane

2014

 

Click to access PolicyInsight77.pdf

 

 

Global Flow of Funds: Mapping Bilateral Geographic Flows

Authors1: Luca Errico, Richard Walton, Alicia Hierro, Hanan AbuShanab, Goran Amidzic

 

2013

Click to access STS083-P1-S.pdf

 

Global-Flow-of-Funds Analysis in a Theoretical Model -What Happened in China’s External Flow of Funds –

 

Nan Zhang

 

Click to access 08GFOF.pdf

 

 

Mapping the Shadow Banking System through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis

Hyun Song Shin

Princeton University

Click to access Hyun-Song-Shin2.pdf

 

 

The Composition of the Global Flow of Funds in East Asia

 

Nan Zhang

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.534.757&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

What Has Capital Flow Liberalization Meant for Economic and Financial Statistics?

Robert Heath

2015

Click to access 41aac8864e53b6176f7b3b7df22aba05ac0e.pdf

 

 

Global flows in a digital age: How trade, finance, people, and data connect the world economy

McKinsey & Company Report

2014

 

 

Managing global finance as a system

Speech given by

Andrew G Haldane, Chief Economist, Bank of England

At the Maxwell Fry Annual Global Finance Lecture, Birmingham University 29 October 2014

Click to access speech772.pdf

Shadow Banking

 

What is Shadow Banking?

From THE SHADOW BANKING CHARADE

The key characteristics of shadow banking as conceived by regulators are credit intermediation in the capital markets, maturity transformation, leverage, and susceptibility to runs. The principal shadow banking activities and entities identified by regulators include the following:

  • Securitization vehicles such as asset-backed commercial paper conduits (ABCP) and structured investment vehicles (SIVs);
  • Securities lending;
  • Repurchase agreements;
  • Money market funds;
  • Securities broker-dealers;
  • Investment funds, including exchange traded funds and hedge funds that provide credit or are leveraged;
  • Finance companies, including auto finance companies and leasing companies;
  • Providers of credit insurance and financial guarantees.

Do Banks BHC /FHC participate in Shadow Banking?

From THE SHADOW BANKING CHARADE

All of the activities classified by regulators as shadow banking are core activities of large banking organizations, both directly and through affiliated entities. It is anomalous to call them “shadow” activities since they occur in the supervisory headlights of banking regulators.

The shadow banking system could not exist without banks and their affiliates. Banks are instrumental in the securitization of assets, which forms the backbone of the shadow banking system. They have been the primary sponsors, issuers, and guarantors of mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed commercial paper for years. Large banks command the repo market as borrowers, lenders, dealers, and custodian banks. They are leaders in securities lending activities. Banks also sponsor and advise numerous types of investment funds, including hedge funds and approximately one-half of all money market funds. All of the major securities broker-dealers in the United States are subsidiaries of banks or bank holding companies. Banking organizations control finance companies of all kinds, including auto finance and leasing companies. They provide credit insurance and financial guarantees to support their activities and those of their customers. To the extent shadow banking has any meaning, regulated banks and their affiliates are an integral part of it.

From Shadow Banking 2010 Zoltan Pozsar

Shadow credit intermediation includes three broad types of activities, differentiated by their strength of official enhancement: implicitly-enhanced, indirectly-enhanced, and unenhanced. The shadow banking system has three sub-systems which intermediate different types of credit, in fundamentally different ways. The government-sponsored shadow banking sub-system refers to credit intermediation activities funded through the sale of Agency debt and MBS, which mainly includes conforming residential and commercial mortgages. The “internal” shadow banking sub- system refers to the credit intermediation process of a global network of banks, finance companies, broker-dealers and asset managers and their on- and off-balance sheet activities—all under the umbrella of financial holding companies. Finally, the “external” shadow banking sub-system refers to the credit intermediation process of diversified broker-dealers (DBDs), and a global network of independent, non-bank financial specialists that include captive and standalone finance companies, limited purpose finance companies and asset managers. 

Why did Shadow Banking arise?

From THE SHADOW BANKING CHARADE

The principal drivers of the growth of the shadow banking system have been the transformation of the largest banks since the early-1980s from low return on-equity (RoE) utilities that originate loans and hold and fund them until maturity with deposits, to high RoE entities that originate loans in order to warehouse and later securitize and distribute them, or retain securitized loans through off- balance sheet asset management vehicles. In conjunction with this transformation, the nature of banking changed from a credit-risk intensive, deposit-funded, spread-based process, to a less credit-risk intensive, but more market-risk intensive, wholesale funded, fee-based process. The transformation of banks occurred within the legal framework of financial holding companies (FHC), which through the acquisition of broker-dealers and asset managers, allowed large banks to transform their traditional process of hold-to-maturity, spread-banking to a more profitable process of originate-to-distribute, fee-banking.

 

 

Key Sources of research:

 

Shadow Banking

Pozsar, Zoltan; Adrian, Tobias; Ashcraft, Adam; Boesky, Hayley (2010)

 

Click to access 635902451.pdf

 

Regulating the Shadow Banking System

GARY GORTON, ANDREW METRICK

2010

 

Click to access 2010b_bpea_gorton.PDF

 

Bagehot was a Shadow Banker: Shadow Banking, Central Banking, and the Future of Global Finance
Perry Mehrling , Zoltan Pozsar , James Sweeney , Daniel H. Neilson

November 5, 2013

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2232016

 

REGULATING SHADOW BANKING

STEVEN L. SCHWARCZ

 

http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3121&context=faculty_scholarship&sei-redir=1&referer=https%3A%2F%2Fscholar.google.com%2Fscholar%3Fq%3Dshadow%2Bbanking%2Bfinance%26btnG%3D%26hl%3Den%26as_sdt%3D0%252C47#search=%22shadow%20banking%20finance%22

 

What is Shadow Banking?
Stijn Claessens , Lev Ratnovski

February 2, 2015

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2559504

 

Shadow banking: A review of the literature

Adrian, Tobias; Ashcraft, Adam B. (2012)

 

Click to access 72934388X.pdf

 

Shadow Banking Regulation
Tobias Adrian

Adam B. Ashcraft

April 1, 2012

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2043153

 

Shadow Banking: Economics and Policy

Stijn Claessens, Zoltan Pozsar, Lev Ratnovski, and Manmohan Singh

2012

Click to access sdn1212.pdf

 

Shadow Banking: The Money View
Zoltan Pozsar

July 2, 2014

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2476415

 

Securitized banking and the run on repo

Gary Gorton Andrew Metrick

Click to access Gorton-Metrick-run-on-the-Repo.pdf

 

Slapped in the Face by the Invisible Hand: Banking and the Panic of 2007
Gary B. Gorton

May 9, 2009

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1401882

 

Three Principles for Market-based Credit Regulation

Perry Mehrling

December 31, 2011

 

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.232.350&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

Shadow banks and macroeconomic instability

Roland Meeks,Benjamin D Nelson and Piergiorgio Alessandri

Click to access wp487.pdf

 

Is Shadow Banking Really Banking?

 

Click to access shadow_banking.pdf

 

The global financial crisis and the shift to shadow banking

Nersisyan, Yeva; Wray, L. Randall (2010)

Click to access 621628174.pdf

 

The Nonbank-Bank Nexus and the Shadow Banking System

Zoltan Pozsar and Manmohan Singh

http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.358.904&rep=rep1&type=pdf

 

 

Banks, Shadow Banking, and Fragility

Luck, Stephan; Schempp, Paul (2015)

 

 

The Growth of Modern Finance

Robin Greenwood

David Scharfstein

July 2012

Click to access Greenwood-Scharfstein.pdf

 

Institutional Cash Pools and the Triffin Dilemma of the U.S. Banking System

Zoltan Pozsar

Click to access 8ae8ad1c-c43a-11e0-ad9a-00144feabdc0.pdf

 

THE SHADOW BANKING CHARADE

By Melanie L. Fein

February 15, 2013

Click to access 2013–Shadow_banking_March_4.pdf

 

Shadow Banking and the Funding of the Nonfinancial Sector

 

Joshua Gallin 2013

Click to access 201350pap.pdf

 

Mapping the Shadow Banking System Through a Global Flow of Funds Analysis

Luca Errico, Artak Harutyunyan, Elena Loukoianova, Richard Walton, Yevgeniya Korniyenko, Goran Amidžić, Hanan AbuShanab, Hyun Song Shin

2014

Click to access 0deec52f13ce3ceefa000000.pdf

 

What Drives the Shadow Banking System in the Short and Long Run?

John V. Duca

 

Click to access wp1401.pdf

 

The Economics of Shadow Banking

Manmohan Singh

Click to access singh.pdf

 

Financial stability policies for shadow banking

Adrian, Tobias (2014)

Click to access 779367677.pdf

 

How Capital Regulation and Other Factors Drive
the Role of Shadow Banking in Funding Short-Term Business Credit

John V. Duca

October 2014

Click to access Duca%20Paper.pdf

 

A Macro View of Shadow Banking: Levered Betas and Wholesale Funding in the Context of Secular Stagnation

Zoltan Pozsar

January 31, 2015

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Papers.cfm?abstract_id=2558945

 

Shadow Bank Monitoring

Tobias Adrian, Adam B. Ashcraft, and Nicola Cetorelli

September 2013

Click to access 771630980.pdf

 

Shedding Light on Shadow Banking

Artak Harutyunyan, Alexander Massara, Giovanni Ugazio, Goran Amidzic, and Richard Walton

 

Click to access 05supbanc.pdf

 

Shadow banks and macroeconomic instability

Roland Meeks,Benjamin D Nelson and Piergiorgio Alessandri

 

Click to access wp487.pdf

 

Do contractionary monetary policy shocks expand shadow banking?

Benjamin Nelson, Gabor Pinter and Konstantinos Theodoridis

January 2015

Click to access wp521.pdf

 

Shadow Banking: Policy Challenges for Central Banks

Thorvald Grung Moe

2014

Click to access 786536284.pdf

 

Sizing Up Repo 

Arvind Krishnamurthy Stefan Nagel

Dmitry Orlov

June 2012

Click to access KrishnaNagelOrlov12.pdf

 

Securitization, Shadow Banking, and Bank Regulation

Julian Kolm

September, 2015

 

Click to access Securitization_and_Bank_Capital_Regulation.pdf

 

Monetary Policy, Financial Conditions, and Financial Stability

Tobias Adrian and Nellie Liang

September 2014

Click to access 796909652.pdf

 

Understanding the Risks Inherent in Shadow Banking: A Primer and Practical Lessons Learned

 

David Luttrell

Harvey Rosenblum

Jackson Thies

 

Click to access staff1203.pdf

 

Runs on Money Market Mutual Funds

Lawrence Schmidt† Allan Timmermann Russ Wermers§

June 20, 2014

Click to access Schmidt_Timmermann_Wermers.pdf

 

 

The Rise and Fall of the Shadow Banking System

 

Zoltan Pozsar

 

https://www.economy.com/sbs

 

The Macroeconomics of Shadow Banking
Alan Moreira  Alexi Savov

April 29, 2016

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2310361

 

Repo Runs

Antoine Martin David Skeie Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden

Click to access sr444.pdf

 

Repo Runs: Evidence from the Tri-Party Repo Market

Adam Copeland, Antoine Martin, and Michael Walker

August 2014

Click to access sr506.pdf

 

Who Ran on Repo?

Gary Gorton, Andrew Metrick

October 4, 2012

Click to access whorancompleteoctober4.pdf

 

Shadow Banking and the Funding of the Nonfinancial Sector

 

Joshua Gallin 2013

Click to access 201350pap.pdf

 

The Evolution of a Financial Crisis: Panic in the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Market
Daniel Covitz, Nellie Liang, and Gustavo Suarez

August 18, 2009

 

Click to access 200936pap.pdf

 

The Evolution of a Financial Crisis: Collapse of the Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Market
Daniel M. Covitz Nellie Liang Gustavo Suarez

April 5, 2012

http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1364576

 

The Economics of Structured Finance

Joshua Coval, Jakub Jurek, and Erik Stafford

2008

 

Click to access 09-060.pdf

 

The Rise of the Originate- to-Distribute Model and the Role of Banks in Financial Intermediation

Vitaly M. Bord and João A. C. Santos

 

Click to access 1207bord.pdf

 

UNDERSTANDING THE SECURITIZATION OF SUBPRIME MORTGAGE CREDIT

Adam B. Ashcraft

Til Schuermann

March 4, 2008

Click to access 0743.pdf

 

Repo and Securities Lending

Tobias Adrian, Brian Begalle, Adam Copeland, and Antoine Martin

February 2013

Click to access sr529.pdf