Scenarios: Frames of Possibilities and Plausibilities
Key Terms
- Scenarios
- Scenario Planning
- Futures
- Intuitive Logics method
- Shell
- GBN
- Oxford Scenarios Program
- Predetermined Elements
- Critical Uncertainty
- Weak Signals
- SRI International (Stanford Research Institute)
- RAND Corporation
- Hudson Institute
- DNI US MoD
- UK MoD
- Scenario Quadrant
- Multiple Scenarios
- Bounded Rationality
- Cognitive Biases
- Frames
- Availability Bias
- Overconfidence
- Anchoring
- Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous (VUCA)
Key Concepts
Source: UNDP FORESIGHT: THE MANUAL Page 11
Black swans
Rare and discontinuous events that are unprecedented, unexpected and have major effects. They are often inappropriately rationalised after the fact with the benefit of hindsight, but this tendency to see coherence can obscure future threats.
Cognitive bias
A pattern of deviation in judgment that influences the way information is received, processed, retained or called. Cognitive biases influence how inferences, judgements and predictions are drawn.
Cognitive dissonance
The mental stress or discomfort one experiences when confronted with new information or views that contradicts existing values or beliefs. Because humans strive for internal consistency, individuals tend to reduce cognitive dissonance by denying or devaluing new information and views, or rationalising their own values and beliefs.
Complexity
Complex systems are non-linear and diverse networks made up of multiple interconnected elements. Cause and effect relationships within the system are not easily discernable or predictable. Historical extrapolation is futile for predicting emergence (new patterns and behaviours) in complex systems.
Cross-‐cutting issues
Issues or challenges that affect more than a single interest area, institution or stakeholder, and that need to be addressed from all points of view. A Whole-of-Government or Networked approach is useful for addressing cross-cutting issues.
Design thinking
An end-user centred approach to problem-solving that places the final experience at the heart of developing solutions. Following an iterative approach, the rapid prototyping component of design thinking allows for quick adaptation in uncertain environments and continual improvement.
Experimentation and prototyping
Experimentation is a process that seeks to test and validate competing hypotheses. Prototyping refers to creating models or sketches to test ideas and spot problems. Experimentation and prototyping are effective ways to navigate and test hypotheses and ideas in complex or rapidly changing environments.
Interdependence
A relationship of mutual reliance between two or more factors within a system such that changes in one area affect the other(s).
Path dependency
Describes the inclination to stick to past practice despite the availability of newer, more efficient practices as a result of cognitive biases such as risk aversion, or concerns over sunk costs. Designing contingency plans with ample space for flexibility can reduce the constraints of path dependency.
Resilience
A system’s ability to cope with and recover from shocks or disruptions, either by returning to the status quo or by transforming itself to adapt to the new reality. Resilient systems view change as inevitable and failure as opportunities to learn from. Social cohesion, trust in government and national pride can be indicators of resilience.
Retrospective coherence
The act of assigning coherence in hindsight in order to make sense of what is happening. Practicing retrospective coherence presents the danger of making decisions for the future based on the lessons of history that may not apply in similar situations.
Signposts
Milestone markers between a given future and the present day that aid visualisation by breaking up the path to the future into manageable blocks of time. They can help to gauge the extent to which a particular scenario has materialised, and can be events, thresholds or trends and patterns.
Systems thinking
An analytical problem solving approach that looks at a system as a whole rather than in isolation, and that considers the interactions between various elements. The big-picture overview helps decision makers see linkages across different sections within the system and can foster collaboration and shared understanding within an organisation. Systems thinking also helps policymakers identify cause-effect relationships and how they might manifest in the larger system.
Unknown unknowns
Issues and situations in organisations that have yet to surface and which are blind spots for planners who are unaware that they do not know about them.
Whole-‐of-‐Government (WG)
A ‘joined-up’ or networked approach to governance that represents a shift from vertical to horizontal decision-making, and which is built on inter-agency collaboration and collective problem-solving. Whole-of-government involves a process of identifying, analysing and managing wide-ranging and cross-cutting issues.
Wicked problems
Large and intractable issues and challenges that have no immediate or obvious solutions and whose causes and influencing factors are not easily determined. Wicked problems are characterised by many agents interacting with each other in often mystifying ways, and involve multiple stakeholders operating with different perspectives and goals.
Purpose of Scenarios
Source: Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?
Van der Heijden [15] argues that there is a confusing assortment of reasons as to why one should engage in scenarios. He advocates the importance of clearly identifying the purpose of undertaking scenario work — in order to make the appropriate selection of scenario methodology. Van der Heijden argues that “purpose” can be divided along two dimensions; the first dimension is to establish the extent of the scenario work i.e. whether the scenario work is to be a one-off project, or part of on an on-going scenario-based planning process. The second dimension is that of the primary aim of the scenario work, this being either to raise questions, or to answer them — and thus aid decision making.
The combination of these two dimensions results in four purposes of scenario work, namely:
• Sense-making: a one-off ‘exploratory question-raising scenario project’;
• Developing strategy: a one-off ‘decision-making scenario project’;
• Anticipation: an ‘on-going exploratory scenario activity’; and
• Action-based organizational learning: an ‘on-going decision-making activity’.Van der Heijden continues by suggesting that these four purposes represent a hierarchy of interconnected aims serving the ultimate goal of “strategic success” in which organizational learning is the “overarching broad organisational skill” achieved when the scenario work is an on-going decision-making activity [15, page 162].
Benefits of Scenarios
Source: Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?
The (mainly practitioner-based) literature contains many testimonials as to the use and organizational benefits of scenarios, which we group under the following headings:
3.1. Enhanced perception
Scenario techniques reportedly enhance corporate and individual perception as they provide a framework for managers to understand and evaluate trends and events as they happen [16], and managers involved in scenario exercises supposedly become better observers of the business environment, more attuned to discerning changes [17]. Porter [18] suggests that scenarios help managers to make explicit their implicit assumptions about the future, and to think beyond the confines of conventional wisdom. This, combined with the fact that scenarios often challenge conventional wisdom and complacency by shifting the “perceptual anchors” from which people view the future, reduces the likelihood of managers and organizations making big mistakes in the future and/or of being caught unaware [19,20].
3.2. A structure for dealing with uncertainty
Scenarios provide a structure for thinking aimed at attacking complexity by allowing managers to deal more openly and explicitly with acknowledged uncertainty [21,16], to arrive at a deeper understanding of what is significant, and to identify what needs to be dealt with – and what is transient and can be ignored [11,22]. Bunn and Salo [23] suggest that, by emphasizing that there are a range of possible futures rather than a single-point future, scenarios reduce the bias for underestimating uncertainties. This is echoed by Docherty and McKiernan [24] who state that “the greatest contribution of scenario planning lies in its active engagement of actors in its process and its power to enable them to think about complexity and uncertainty in external contexts, and then how they might shape the external environment to their own strategic ends” (p. 10).
3.3. Integration of corporate planning functions
Scenario techniques provide a good middle ground between relying on informal and intuitive techniques, and being bound by the methodological constraints of more formal, quantitative techniques. As a result, a greater variety of information and wider company participation can be incorporated into the forecasting and planning process when scenario planning is used [16]. Other authors [25,26] add that scenarios are also able to combine topical intelligence and structure seemingly disparate environmental factors into a useful framework for decision making in a way that no other planning models can.
3.4. A communications tool
According to Allen [21], the communications qualities of scenarios are overwhelming as they provide a rational and non-threatening framework for discussion, even with those outside of the organization [27]. Durance and Godet [28] state that scenarios are also an effective means of rallying employees and communicating strategy across the organization. Bezhold [29] suggests that the scenarios can be used as a marketing and educational campaign throughout the organization. Ringland [25] adds that, by sharing its scenarios with the outside world, an organization can provide the context for dialog with its stakeholders — enabling it to influence its external environment. An added benefit [30] is that the collegiality which usually emerges in a scenario planning exercise does not evaporate once the scenario exercise is complete. Van der Heijden [15,31] reports that Royal Dutch Shell’s scenarios emerged as a powerful management tool by which senior management was able to influence decision-making at all levels throughout the organization, without becoming directly involved in the process or minutiae of the subsequent, scenario-based, evaluation of decisions. This was achieved by making the scenarios the context for key strategic decisions — thus uniting the geographically dispersed, disparate, and decentralized business units in developing a common strategy [28].
3.5. Organizational learning
Although scenario planning was initially understood as a tool for “thinking the unthinkable” [32], a body of literature has subsequently developed around the value of scenarios in terms of individual and organizational learning [11]. This is because scenario exercises ostensibly provide a politically-safe team learning environment and a rich learning process that stimulates creativity [11,15,33–37]. As models of future business environments, scenarios provide a vehicle for pseudo-experimentation in terms of formulating strategic options and then examining the consequences of these options in a range of future environments [15,30,31,38]. By having to articulate their assumptions in a scenario exercise, managers can identify inconsistencies in their own thinking and that of their colleagues in a non-threatening environment [25,37]. At the same time, the necessity in scenario work to undertake detailed analysis of environmental driving forces and their causal relationships, forces individuals to examine their perceptions, stretch their mental models and to develop a shared view of uncertainty [15,31]. All of the foregoing leads to an increased confidence in decision-making [16] and moves the organization towards becoming, what has been termed, a “learning organization” [15].Based upon our consideration of the above purposes and benefits of the use of scenario methods, we distil from the literature three main objectives of the application of scenario approaches, as follows:
1) Enhancing understanding: of the causal processes, connections and logical sequences underlying events — thus uncovering how a future state of the world may unfold;
2) Challenging conventional thinking: to reframe perceptions and change the mindsets of those within organizations; and
3) Improving decision making: to inform strategy development.Support for this conclusion also comes from the work of Varum and Melo who, after undertaking a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of the literature on scenario planning, argued that there is a consensus in the literature on three benefits of using scenarios, namely an “improvement of the learning process, improvement of the decision-making process, and identification of new issues and problems” [2, page.362].
Our three objectives are interlinked in that: firstly, understanding the connections, causal processes and logical sequences which determine how events may unfold to create different futures, will challenge conventional thinking and will also prove of benefit in improving organizational decision making and strategy; secondly, challenging conventional thinking, reframing perceptions and changing mind-sets should result in collective organizational learning; and, thirdly, collective organization learning should enhance organizational decision making and strategy — which in turn should enhance collective organizational learning.
Types of Scenarios
Source: An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?
- Predictive
- Trend
- Whatif
- Explorative
- Framed
- Unframed
- Normative
- Preserving
- Transformational
Types of Uncertainty
Source: Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance
Source: A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning – Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy
Multiple Frames of Changes in Contextual Environment on the Transcational Environment
Source: Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy
Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation
Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation
Source: Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation
Institutions and Methods of Scenario Planning
- Shell/GBN Intuitive Logics Method
- Oxford Scenario Planning Approach
- La Prospective / M Godet
- Rand Corporation
- SRI International
- GBN/Monitor/Deloitte/Center for Long View/Market Sensing and Scenario Planning
Source: Plausibility and probability in scenario planning
Source: The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques
Research Journals and Authors on Scenario Planning
Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
Source: SCENARIOS IN BUSINESS AND MANAGEMENT: THE CURRENT STOCK AND RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES
Scenarios Application
- Business
- Non Profit Org
- Philanthropic
- Public Sector
- Arts and Culture
- Governance
- National Security
- Transnational Issues
My Related Posts
Shell Oil’s Scenarios: Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning for the Future
Water | Food | Energy | Nexus: Mega Trends and Scenarios for the Future
Global Trends, Scenarios, and Futures: For Foresight and Strategic Management
On Anticipation: Going Beyond Forecasts and Scenarios
Art of Long View: Future, Uncertainty and Scenario Planning
Narrative, Rhetoric and Possible Worlds
What are Problem Structuring Methods?
Drama Theory: Acting Strategically
Frames, Communication, and Public Policymaking
Strategy | Strategic Management | Strategic Planning | Strategic Thinking
Key Sources of Research:
Augmenting the intuitive logics scenario planning method for a more comprehensive analysis of causation
James Derbyshire a,∗, George Wright b
a Centre for Enterprise and Economic Development Research, Middlesex University, UK
b Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, UK
International Journal of Forecasting 33 (2017) 254–266
Does the intuitive logics method – and its recent enhancements – produce “effective” scenarios?
Warwick Business School, Scarman Road, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK
bStrathclyde Business School, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
cSchool of Management, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC 3000, Australia
Received 30 August 2012, Accepted 2 September 2012, Available online 29 September 2012.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 631-642
The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning
aUniversity of Strathclyde, Graduate School of Business, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow G4 0QU, UK
bUniversity of Durham, Durham Business School, Mill Hill Lane, Durham DH1 3LB, UK
Available online 24 May 2005.
Futures
Volume 37, Issue 8, October 2005, Pages 795-812
How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges
aFutures Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK
bTHNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam, The Netherlands
cSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, UK
dReims Management School, Reims, France
eSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK
Received 19 December 2011, Revised 28 September 2012, Accepted 1 October 2012, Available online 27 December 2012.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 699-710
Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention
aSaïd Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford, OX1 1HP, UK
bItäpaja Ltd., Urakkatie 10-12 A 2, 00680 Helsinki, Finland
cNormannPartners AB, Engelbrektsgatan 9-11, SE-114 32 Stockholm, Sweden
Received 4 November 2011, Revised 21 October 2012, Accepted 24 October 2012, Available online 19 November 2012.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 825-838
Rethinking the 2 × 2 scenario method: Grid or frames?
aSaid Business School, Oxford, UK
bSmith School of Enterprise and Environment, Oxford, UK
Received 19 March 2013, Revised 9 October 2013, Accepted 17 October 2013, Available online 22 November 2013.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 86, July 2014, Pages 254-264
Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning
Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Received 18 December 2011, Revised 7 October 2012, Accepted 9 October 2012, Available online 20 December 2012.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 815-824
Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: the conjunctive fallacy in probability judgment.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1983).
Psychological Review, 90, 293–315.
Scenarios and Forecasting: Two Perspectives
Received 1 December 1998, Accepted 1 January 1999, Available online 6 October 2000.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 65, Issue 1, September 2000, Pages 31-36
Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades☆
Department of Economics, Management and Industrial Engineering, University of Aveiro, Campus Universitário de Santiago, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Available online 18 November 2009.
Futures
Volume 42, Issue 4, May 2010, Pages 355-369
Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: Enhancing the scenario method
aDurham Business School, University of Durham, Mill Hill lane, Durham City, DH1 3lB, United Kingdom
bSchool of Management, University of Bath, Bath, BA2 7AY, United Kingdom
Available online 5 June 2009.
International Journal of Forecasting
Volume 25, Issue 4, October–December 2009, Pages 813-825
Living in the Futures
Harvard Business Review May 2013
https://hbr.org/2013/05/living-in-the-futures
Strategic reframing : the Oxford scenario planning approach
Rafael Ramírez; Angela Wilkinson
Oxford, UK : Oxford University Press, 2016.
Strategic Foresight Primer
Angela Wilkinson
Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology
Angela Wilkinson and Esther Eidinow
James Martin Institute, Said Business School, University of Oxford, Park End Street, Oxford OX1 1HP, UK
Received 10 March 2008
Accepted for publication 20 August 2008 Published 15 December 2008
Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/3/045017
2008 Environ. Res. Lett. 3 045017
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/3/4/045017/pdf
HOW SCENARIOS BECAME CORPORATE STRATEGIES: ALTERNATIVE FUTURES AND UNCERTAINTY
IN STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT
Bretton Fosbrook
A Dissertation submitted to
The Faculty of Graduate Studies
in
Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy
Graduate Program in Science and Technology Studies York University
Toronto, Ontario
December 2017
Uncertainty, Decision Science, and Policy Making: A Manifesto for a Research Agenda.
David Tucket, Antoine Mandel, Diana Mangalagiu, Allen Abramson, Jochen Hinkel, et al..
Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society, Taylor and Francis 2015, 27 (2), pp.213 – 242.
10.1080/08913811.2015.1037078 . hal-02057279
Scenarios Practices: In Search of Theory
Angela Wilkinson University of Oxford UK
Journal of Futures Studies, February 2009, 13(3): 107 – 114
Towards a relational concept of uncertainty: Incorporating the human dimension
Brugnach, M.1; A. Dewulf 2; C. Pahl-Wostl 1 and T. Taillieu 3
1. Universität Osnabrück, Germany
2. Wageningen University, The Netherlands
3. Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium
Contact author: Marcela Brugnach, mbrugnac@usf.uos.de
Ambiguity: the challenge of knowing and deciding together
M. Brugnach a,*, H. Ingram b,c
a Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands
b Southwest Center, University of Arizona, United States
c School of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, United States
environmental science & policy 15 (2012) 60–71
Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too differently, and accepting not to know.
Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu.
2008.
Ecology and Society13(2): 30. [online]
URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/
Policy Analysis: A Systematic Approach to Supporting Policymaking in the Public Sector
WARREN E. WALKERa,b,*
a RAND Europe, Leiden, Netherlands
b Delft University of Technology, Delft, Netherlands
JOURNAL OF MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS
J. Multi–Crit. Decis. Anal. 9: 11–27 (2000)
http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.201.3202&rep=rep1&type=pdf
Integrated management of natural resources: dealing with ambiguous issues, multiple actors and diverging frames
A. Dewulf*, M. Craps*, R. Bouwen*, T. Taillieu* and C. Pahl-Wostl**
*Center for Organizational and Personnel Psychology, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Tiensestraat 102, 3000 Leuven, Belgium (E-mail: art.dewulf@psy.kuleuven.ac.be, marc.craps@psy.kuleuven.ac.be,rene.bouwen@psy.kuleuven.ac.be, tharsi.taillieu@psy.kuleuven.ac.be)
**Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabru ̈ck, Albrechtstrasse 28, Osnabru ̈ck, Germany (E-mail: pahl@usf.uni-osnabrueck.de)
More is not always better: Coping with ambiguity in natural resources management
M. Brugnach a, b, *, A. Dewulf c, H.J. Henriksen d, P. van der Keur d
a Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands
b Institute for Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Germany c Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University, The Netherlands d Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, Denmark
Journal of Environmental Management xxx (2010) 1e7
ORGANIZATIONAL CHANGE AND MANAGERIAL SENSEMAKING: WORKING THROUGH PARADOX
LOTTE S. LU ̈ SCHER Clavis Consultancy
MARIANNE W. LEWIS University of Cincinnati
Academy of Management Journal 2008, Vol. 51, No. 2, 221–240.
Sustainable Development: Mapping Different Approaches
Bill Hopwood, Mary Mellor, Geoff O’Brien Sustainable Cities Research Institute
6 North Street East,
University of Northumbria,
Newcastle on Tyne, NE1 8ST
Tel: 0191 227-3500 Fax: 0191 227-3066
E-mails:
Bill Hopwood: william.hopwood@unn.ac.uk
Sustainable Development, 13. pp. 38-52. ISSN 0968-0802
Published by: Wiley-Blackwell
URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.244 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/sd.244>
Click to access Mapping_Sustainable_Development.pdf
The Environmental Goffman: Toward an Environmental Sociology of Everyday Life
BRADLEY H. BREWSTER
Gaylord Nelson Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
MICHAEL MAYERFELD BELL
Department of Community & Environmental Sociology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin, USA
Society and Natural Resources, 23:45–57 Copyright # 2010 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 0894-1920 print=1521-0723 online
DOI: 10.1080/08941920802653505
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together?
H.R. Maier a, *, J.H.A. Guillaume b, H. van Delden a, c, G.A. Riddell a, M. Haasnoot d, e, J.H. Kwakkel e
a School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide SA 5005, Australia b Water & Development Research Group (WDRG), Aalto University, Tietotie 1E, Espoo 02150, Finland
c Research Institute for Knowledge Systems, Hertogsingel 11B, 6211 NC Maastricht, The Netherlands
d Deltares, Fresh Water Department, Delft, The Netherlands
e Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Technology Policy and Management, Delft, The Netherlands
Environmental Modelling & Software
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.03.014
https://ojs.unbc.ca/index.php/design/article/viewFile/1723/1324
Towards a user’s guide to scenarios – a report on scenario types and scenario techniques
Lena Borjeson1, Mattias Hojer1, Karl-Henrik Dreborg1,3, Tomas Ekvall2, Goran Finnveden1,3
1 Environmental strategies research – fms, Department of Urban studies, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm
2 Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg.
3 Swedish Defence Research Agency (FOI), Stockholm
https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/servlets/purl/20688312
The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques
Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins
foresight, Vol. 9 Iss: 1 pp. 5 – 25 2007
Identification and classification of uncertainties in the application of environmental models
J.J. Warmink a, *, J.A.E.B. Janssen a, b, M.J. Booij a, M.S. Krol a
a Department of Water Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, P.O. Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, the Netherlands b Waterboard Rijn and IJssel, P.O. Box 148, 7000 AC Doetinchem, the Netherlands
Environmental Modelling & Software 25 (2010) 1518e1527
Wicked Problems: Implications for Public Policy and Management
Brian W. Head1 and John Alford2,3
Administration & Society 2015, Vol. 47(6) 711–739
DOI: 10.1177/0095399713481601
ORGANIZATIONS AS RHETORIC: KNOWLEDGE-INTENSIVE FIRMS AND THE STRUGGLE WITH AMBIGUITY
MATSALVESSON Universityof Gothenburg
Journal of Management Studies: 30:6 November 1993 0022-2380
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/j.1467-6486.1993.tb00476.x
Forty years of wicked problems literature: forging closer links to policy studies,
Brian W. Head (2019)
Policy and Society, 38:2, 180-197, DOI: 10.1080/14494035.2018.1488797
https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1488797
Uncovering the origin of ambiguity in nature-inclusive flood infrastructure projects
Ronald E. van den Hoek 1, Marcela Brugnach 1, Jan P. M. Mulder 1,2 and Arjen Y. Hoekstra 1
Ecology and Society 19(2): 51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-06416-190251
Coping with Complexity, Uncertainty and Ambiguity in Risk Governance: A Synthesis
Ortwin Renn, Andreas Klinke, Marjolein van Asselt
AMBIO (2011) 40:231–246
DOI 10.1007/s13280-010-0134-0
Risk frames and multiple ways of knowing: Coping with ambiguity in oil spill risk governance in the Norwegian Barents Sea
Tuuli Parviainena,⁎, Annukka Lehikoinenb, Sakari Kuikkaa, P.ivi Haapasaaria
a University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, FI-
00014 Helsinki Finland
b University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Kotka Maritime Research Center,
Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.04.009
Environmental Science & Policy
Volume 98, August 2019, Pages 95-111
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111930022X
Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance
Art Dewulf and Robbert Biesbroek
Public Administration and Policy group, Wageningen University and Research, Netherlands
POLICY AND SOCIETY
2018, VOL. 37, NO. 4, 441–458 https://doi.org/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/14494035.2018.1504484
Coping with Uncertainty in River Management: Challenges and Ways Forward
J. J. Warmink1 & M. Brugnach1 & J. Vinke-de Kruijf2 & R. M. J. Schielen1,3 & D. C. M. Augustijn1
Received: 1 March 2017 / Accepted: 21 June 2017 /
Water Resour Manage (2017) 31:4587–4600 DOI 10.1007/s11269-017-1767-6
The Implications of Complexity for Integrated Resources Management
C. Pahl-Wostl
Institute of Environmental Systems Research, University of Osnabrück, Germany
Click to access Keynote_Pahl.pdf
A relational approach to deal with ambiguity in multi-actor governance for sustainability
M. Craps1 & M. F. Brugnach2
1Centre for Economics and Corporate Sustainability,
KU Leuven, Belgium
2Faculty of Engineering Technology, University of Twente, The Netherlands
WIT Transactions on Ecology and The Environment, Vol 199, © 2015 WIT Press www.witpress.com, ISSN 1743-3541 (on-line)
doi:10.2495/RAV150201
Futures Studies: Theories and Methods
Sohail Inayatullah
https://www.bbvaopenmind.com/en/articles/futures-studies-theories-and-methods/
Scenario thinking and usage among development actors
William Robert Avis
University of Birmingham 18 October 2017
Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis
Overview, assessment, and selection criteria
Hannah Kosow Robert Gaßner
DIE Research Project “Development Policy: Questions for the Future”
Bonn 2008
German Development Institute
SCENARIO PLANNING FOR STRATEGIC REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
Christopher Zegras1, Joseph Sussman2, Christopher Conklin3 Forthcoming (March 2004) in
ASCE Journal of Urban Planning and Development
How Scenario Planning Influences Strategic Decisions
A recent study sheds light on how the use of scenario planning affects executives’ strategic choices.
Shardul Phadnis, Chris Caplice, and Yossi Sheffi
May 27, 2016 MIT Sloan Management Review
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-scenario-planning-influences-strategic-decisions/
How to Make Sense of Weak Signals
There’s no sense in denying it: interpreting weak signals into useful decision making takes time and focus. These three stages can help you see the periphery—and act on it—much more clearly.
Paul J.H. Schoemaker and George S. Day
April 01, 2009
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-to-make-sense-of-weak-signals/
A Review of Scenario Planning Literature
T Chermack et al
Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy
Rather than trying to predict the future, organizations need to strengthen their abilities to cope with uncertainty. A new approach to scenario planning can help companies reframe their long-term strategies by developing several plausible scenarios.
Rafael Ramírez, Steve Churchhouse, Alejandra Palermo, and Jonas Hoffmann
June 13, 2017
Sloan Management Review
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/using-scenario-planning-to-reshape-strategy/
Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking
Paul J.H. Schoemaker
SLOAN MANAGEMENT REVIEW/WINTER 1995
Chapter 10
The Learning Dimension of Adaptive Capacity: Untangling the Multi-level Connections
Alan Diduck
Adaptive Capacity and Environmental Governance
Derek Armitage l Ryan Plummer Editors
Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development
Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise
by Ulf Pillkahn
ISBN 978-3-89578-304-3
Risk frames and multiple ways of knowing: Coping with ambiguity in oil spill risk governance in the Norwegian Barents Sea
Tuuli Parviainena,⁎, Annukka Lehikoinenb, Sakari Kuikkaa, P.ivi Haapasaaria
a University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, P.O Box 65, Viikinkaari 1, FI-00014 Helsinki Finland
b University of Helsinki, Finland, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme, Faculty of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Kotka Maritime Research Center, Keskuskatu 10, FI-48100 Kotka, Finland
Environmental Science and Policy 98 (2019) 95–111
How Issues Get Framed and Reframed When Different Communities Meet: A Multi-level Analysis of a Collaborative Soil Conservation Initiative in the Ecuadorian Andes
ART DEWULF1*, MARC CRAPS1 and GERD DERCON2
1Centre for Organizational and Personnel Psychology, Katholieke Universiteit, Leuven, Belgium
2International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibidan, Nigeria
Journal of Community & Applied Social Psychology
J. Community Appl. Soc. Psychol., 14: 177–192 (2004)
Defining Uncertainty
A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support
W.E. WALKER1, P. HARREMO€EES2, J. ROTMANS3, J.P. VAN DER SLUIJS5, M.B.A. VAN ASSELT4, P. JANSSEN6 AND M.P. KRAYER VON KRAUSS2
1Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands,
2Environment & Resources DTU, Technical University of Denmark, Denmark,
3International Centre for Integrative Studies (ICIS), Maastricht University, The Netherlands,
4Faculty of Arts and Culture, Maastricht University, The Netherlands,
5Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development and Innovations, Utrecht University, The Netherlands, and
6Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), The Netherlands
Integrated Assessment
2003, Vol. 00, No. 0, pp. 000–000
1389-5176/03/0000-000
A Structured Approach to Strategic Decisions
Reducing errors in judgment requires a disciplined process.
Daniel Kahneman, Dan Lovallo, and Olivier Sibony
MIT Sloan Management Review
March 04, 2019
https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/a-structured-approach-to-strategic-decisions/
A move toward scenario analysis
Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures
Ilkka Tuomi
1Meaning Processing Ltd, Helsinki, Finland
2Stellenbosch Institute for Advanced Study (STIAS), Wallenberg Research Centre at Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, South Africa
Received:21November2018 | Revised:15January2019 | Accepted:15January2019
DOI: 10.1002/ffo2.11
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ffo2.11
A Scenario-based Approach to Strategic Planning
– Integrating Planning and Process Perspective of Strategy
Prof. Dr. Torsten Wulf, Philip Meißner and Dr. Stephan Stubner
2010
Click to access ap-no-6-scenario-based-approach-to-strategic-planning.pdf
The 4 Whys of Scenario Thinking
M Brain
About the Kearney-Oxford Scenarios Programme
AT Kearney
https://www.kearney.com/web/atkearney-oxford-scenarios-programme/scenarios-programme
Scenarios in the strategy process: a framework of affordances and constraints
Victor Tiberius
Tiberius European Journal of Futures Research (2019) 7:7 https://doi.org/10.1186/s40309-019-0160-5
Objectivity and a comparison of methodological scenario approaches for climate change research
Elisabeth A. Lloyd · Vanessa J. Schweizer
Synthese (2014) 191:2049–2088 DOI 10.1007/s11229-013-0353-6
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11229-013-0353-6
Cross-impact balances:
A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis
Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle T,1
University of Stuttgart, Institute for Social Sciences V, Research Unit Risk and Sustainability, Seidenstr. 36,
70174 Stuttgart, Germany
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 73 (2006) 334–361
ScenarioWizard 4.3. Constructing Consistent Scenarios Using Cross-Impact Balance Analysis.
Manual.
Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle
Improving environmental change research with systematic techniques for qualitative scenarios
Vanessa Jine Schweizer and Elmar Kriegler
2012 Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044011
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044011/meta
Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations
- February 2014
- Climatic Change 122(3)
The current state of scenario development: An overview of techniques
- February 2007
- Foresight 9(1)
Should Probabilities Be Used with Scenarios?
Stephen M. Millett Futuring Associates LLC USA
Plausibility and probability in scenario planning
- March 2014
- Foresight 16(1)
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263366784_Plausibility_and_probability_in_scenario_planning
Click to access ACCEPTED_Plausibility_and_Probability_in_Scenario_Planning_March_24_2013.pdf
Scenario development without probabilities — focusing on the most important scenario
Volker Grienitz & Michael Hausicke & André-Marcel Schmidt
Eur J Futures Res (2014) 15:27
DOI 10.1007/s40309-013-0027-0
Foundations of Scenario Planning: The Story of Pierre Wack
By Thomas J Chermack
2017
ROLE OF SCENARIO PLANNING AND PROBABILITIES
IN ECONOMIC DECISION PROBLEMS – LITERATURE REVIEW AND NEW CONCLUSIONS
Helena GASPARS-WIELOCH 
Department of Operations Research, Faculty of Informatics and Electronic Economy, Poznan University of Economics and Business, Al. Niepodleglosci 10, 61-875, Poznań, Poland
*E-mail: helena.gaspars@ue.poznan.pl
https://doi.org/10.3846/cibmee.2019.011
http://cibmee.vgtu.lt/index.php/verslas/2019/paper/viewFile/422/123
Overcoming obstacles to effective scenario planning
McKinsey on Finance Number 55, Summer 2015
Increasing the effectiveness of participatory scenario development through codesign
Marissa F. McBride 1, Kathleen F. Lambert 2, Emily S. Huff 3, Kathleen A. Theoharides 4, Patrick Field 5 and Jonathan R. Thompson 1
1Harvard Forest, Harvard University, Petersham, Massachusetts, 2Harvard Forest, Harvard University and Science Policy Exchange, Petersham, Massachusetts, 3Michigan State University, Department of Forestry, East Lansing, Michigan, 4Climate and Global Warming Solutions, Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs, Boston, Massachusetts, 5Consensus Building Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts
E&S HOME > VOL. 22, NO. 3 > Art. 16
https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol22/iss3/art16/
Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities
Victor Tiberius a,⁎, Caroline Siglow a, Javier Sendra-García b
a University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany
b Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7467075/
Plotting Your Scenarios
Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz
GBN
PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES: SCENARIO ANALYSIS, DECISION TREES AND SIMULATIONS
Click to access probabilistic.pdf
Navigating Uncertain Times
A Scenario Planning Toolkit for the Arts & Culture Sector
Literature Review
Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation
- March 1993
- Strategic Management Journal 14:193-213
FORESIGHT: THE MANUAL
UNDP
UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE)
Foresight as a Strategic Long-Term Planning Tool for Developing Countries
UNDP
UNDP Global Centre for Public Service Excellence (GCPSE)
https://www.undp.org/publications/foresight-strategic-long-term-planning-tool-developing-countries
Plausibility indications in future scenarios
Wiek, A., Withycombe Keeler, L., Schweizer, V. and Lang, D.J. (2013)
Int. J. Foresight and Innovation Policy, Vol. 9, Nos. 2/3/4, 2013
Plausibility and probability in scenario planning
Rafael Ramirez and Cynthia Selin
Foresight · March 2014
DOI: 10.1108/FS-08-2012-0061
Integrating organizational networks, weak signals, strategic radars and scenario planning
Paul J.H. Schoemaker ⁎, George S. Day, Scott A. Snyder Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 815–824
The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques
Peter Bishop, Andy Hines and Terry Collins
Foresight · February 2007
DOI: 10.1108/14636680710727516
Chronotopes of foresight: Models of time‐space in probabilistic, possibilistic and constructivist futures
Ilkka Tuomi1,2
Futures Foresight Sci. 2019;1:e11.
https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.11
Using Trends and Scenarios as Tools for Strategy Development
Shaping the Future of Your Enterprise
by Ulf Pillkahn
Book
An Analysis and Categorization of Scenario Planning Scholarship from 1995-2016
Thomas J. Chermack Colorado State University USA
DOI:10.6531/JFS.201806.22(4).0004
Journal of Futures Studies, June 2018, 22(4): 45–60
A review of scenario planning
Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: pitfalls and potential
Innovation, Dynamic Capabilities and Leadership
Paul J.H. Schoemaker, Sohvi Leih, David J. Teece March 23, 2018
Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK
Professor R. Bradley MacKay a,⁎, Dr. Veselina Stoyanova b
a The Gateway, North Haugh, School of Management, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, Scotland KY16 9RJ, UK
b Strathclyde Business School, University of Strathclyde, 199 Cathedral Street, Glasgow, Scotland G4 0QU, UK
Technological Forecasting & Social Change 124 (2017) 88–100
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162516302451
Scenarios in business and management: The current stock and research opportunities
Victor Tiberius a,⁎, Caroline Siglow a, Javier Sendra-García b
a University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Potsdam, Germany
b Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Journal of Business Research 121 (2020) 235–242
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7467075/
How plausibility-based scenario practices are grappling with complexity to appreciate and address 21st century challenges
aFutures Programme, Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK
bTHNK, Haarlemmerweg 8a, 1014 BE Amsterdam, The Netherlands
cSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, UK
dReims Management School, Reims, France
eSmith School of Enterprise and the Environment, Oxford University, Hayes House, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK
Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Volume 80, Issue 4, May 2013, Pages 699-710
Special Issue: Scenario Method: Current developments in theory and practice
Edited by George Wright, George Cairns, Ron Bradfield
Volume 80, Issue 4,
Pages 561-838 (May 2013)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0040162512002971
Scenario methodology: New developments in theory and practice Introduction to the Special Issue
George Wright a,⁎, George Cairns b, Ron Bradfield c
a Warwick Business School, Coventry, UK
b RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
c Strathclyde Business School, Glasgow, UK
Technological Forecasting & Social Change xxx (2013) xxx–xxx
Scanning the Periphery
by
HBR 2005
Scenario Planning Literature
Recent Articles
Bouhalleb, Arafet and Ali Smida, “Scenario Planning: An investigation of the construct and its measurements,” Wiley Online Library, February 9, 2018
Favato, Giampiero, “Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach,” June 17, 2016
Gray, Jane, “Ofgem targets “flexible” scenario planning,” Network, October 12, 2016
Gray, Michael, “Scottish business ‘scenario planning’ for independence over Brexit, minister confirms,” October 14, 2016
Hartung, Adam “The No. 1 Lesson from Hurricane Matthew and Brexit: Scenario Planning is Crucial,” October 7, 2016
Lang, Trudi, and Rafael Ramirez, “Building new social capital with scenario planning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Science Direct, July 8, 2017
Phadnis, Shardul, “How Scenario Planning Influences Strategic Decisions,” MIT Sloan Management Review, Summer 2016
Powch, Andrew, “Overcoming Uncertainty with the Aid of Scenario Planning,” Industry Week, October 17, 2017
Raford, Noah, “Online foresight platforms: Evidence for their impact on scenario planning and strategic foresight,” Elsevier, August 2015
Ramírez, R., & Selin, C., “Plausibility and probability in scenario planning,” Foresight, 16(1), 54-74, March 4, 2014
Ramirez, Rafael, Sheve Churchhouse, Alejandra Palermo, and Jonas Hoffman, Using Scenario Planning to Reshape Strategy, MIT Sloan Management Review, June 13, 2017
Ramirez, Rafael, “How scenario planning makes strategy more robust,” Oxford Answers, January 28, 2020
Schoemaker, PJH, Scenario planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking, MIT Sloan Management Review, 1995
Schwarze, Margaret and Lauren J. Taylor, “Managing Uncertainty—Harnessing the Power of Scenario Planning,” The New England Journal of Medicine, July 20, 2017
Wilkinson, A. and Kupers, R. “Living in the Futures,” Harvard Business Review, May 2013
Wilkinson, A. and Ramirez, R. “2010 Canaries in the Mind,” Journal of Future Studies
Books
Cairns, George and George Wright, Scenario Thinking: Preparing Your Organization for the Future in an Unpredictable World, Palgrave Macmillan, 2nd ed., 2018
Harris, Jared D. and Michael J. Lenox, The Strategist’s Toolkit, Darden Business Publishing, 2013
Laudicina, Paul, World Out of Balance: Navigating Global Risks to Seize Competitive Advantage, McGraw Hill, 2005
Ramirez, Rafael and Angela Wilkinson, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press, May 24, 2016
Ramirez, Rafael, John W. Selsky and Kees van der Heijden, Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New Methods for Applying Scenarios, earthscan, 2010
Schwartz, Peter, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World, Crown Business Publishing, 1996
Van Der Heijden, Kees, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, John Wiley and Sons Ltd., 2010
Wade, Woody, Scenario Planning: A Field Guide to the Future, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 2012
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