Stock Flow Consistent Models for Ecological Economics
Planetary boundaries – Stockholm Resilience Centre
Replies to criticism of the Planetary Boundaries concept:
Johan Rockström: addressing some key misconceptions
Planetary Boundaries concept is valuable for policy
New approaches are needed to help humanity deal with climate change and other global environmental threats that lie ahead in the 21st century. A group of 28 internationally renowned scientists propose that global biophysical boundaries, identified on the basis of the scientific understanding of the Earth System, can define a safe planetary operating space that will allow humanity to continue to develop and thrive for generations to come.
This new approach to sustainable development was conveyed in Nature and Ecology and Society where the scientists have made a first attempt to identify and quantify a set of nine planetary boundaries.
“The human pressure on the Earth System has reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. To continue to live and operate safely, humanity has to stay away from critical ‘hard-wired´ thresholds in the Earth’s environment, and respect the nature of the planet’s climatic, geophysical, atmospheric and ecological processes,” says lead author Johan Rockström, director of the Stockholm Resilience Centre.
He warns that transgressing planetary boundaries may be devastating for humanity, but if we respect them we have a bright future for centuries ahead.
Nine boundaries identified
The group of scientists including Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Will Steffen, Katherine Richardson, Jonathan Foley and Nobel Laureate Paul Crutzen, have attempted to quantify the safe biophysical boundaries outside which, they believe, the Earth System cannot function in a stable state, the state in which human civilizations have thrived.
The scientists first identified the Earth System processes and potential biophysical thresholds, which, if crossed, could generate unacceptable environmental change for humanity. They then proposed the boundaries that should be respected in order to reduce the risk of crossing these thresholds.
The Nine boundaries identified were:
– climate change
– stratospheric ozone
– land use change
– freshwater use
– biological diversity
– ocean acidification
– nitrogen and phosphorus inputs to the biosphere and oceans
– aerosol loading
– chemical pollution.
The study suggests that three of these boundaries (climate change, biological diversity and nitrogen input to the biosphere) may already have been transgressed. In addition, it emphasizes that the boundaries are strongly connected — crossing one boundary may seriously threaten the ability to stay within safe levels of the others.
Planetary Boundaries
- Stockholm Resillience Institute
- IPCC
- NEF
- INET
- Club of Rome – Limits to Growth
- Ecological Economics
- Social-Economic-Ecological Interactions
- Ecological Macroeconomics
From An ecological stock-flow-fund modelling framework
Since 1960-70s, several studies have attempted to understand impact of climate change on human systems. New attempts are being made to incorporate monetary macro economics within framework of Physical Science models of Climate Change. Some models are aggregated and some are disaggregated at regional level. These Integrated models of economy and climate are known as Integrated Impact Assessment Models (IAMs).
Various mathematical modeling techniques have been used.
Varieties of Modeling approaches
- General Circulation Model (GCM)
- Integrated Impact Assessment Model (IAM)
- Econometric Input-Output Model
- System Dynamics Model
- Stock-Flow Consistent Ecological Economic Model
GCM are known as Climate Models and are based on Physical/Chemical Sciences. Some of them are listed here but are not discussed. Our interest is in Integrated Models which incorporate impact of climate change on Social and Economic Systems.
GCM (General Circulation Models)
- called Climate Models – No Economics
- use Physical Science
- COSMOS
- Model E
- HadGEM3
- CESM
- GFDL
- IPSL
- UVIc
From Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments
Types of Models
- Input Output Models
- Econometric Models
- CGE Models (Optimization based)
- Social Accounting Matrix
- System Dynamics Models
- Stock Flow Consistent Models
- Agent Based Models
Most of the models are either Optimization models or hybrid models incorporating several techniques.
From On the economic foundations of green growth discourses
Input-Output Models
A. Resources Constraints
B. Climate Change
- Emissions
- EIO (Econometric Input Output) Model -E3ME
- INFORUM (Univ. of Maryland)
- GTAP
Econometric Models
Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models
Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)
Econometric Input Output Models
IAMs (Integrated Assessment Models)
- ESCAPE
- PAGE
- MAGICC
- CSERGE
- DNE21+
- GCAM
- IMACLIM
- IMAGE
- MERGE-ETL
- MESSAGE
- POLES
- REMIND
- WITCH
- GEM-E3
- Worldscan
- DICE
- ENTICE
- RICE
- FEEM-RICE
- ICAM
- MIND
- DEMETER
- GET
- E3MG
- FUND
Energy-Economy Models
- GAINS
- GEM-E3
- GREEN-X
- NEMESIS
- PRIMES
- TIMES-PanEU
- Worldscan
- MIT EPPA
- AIM
- IMACLIM-R
- ICES
- GTAP-E
From AMPERE Project Website
From Integrated Impact Assessment Models of Climate Change with an Emphasis on Damage Functions: a Literature Review
From Inside the integrated assessment models: Four issues in climate economics
From On the economic foundations of green growth discourses
System Dynamics Models
- MIT System Dynamics C-Roads Model
- FREE Model – Tom Fiddaman
- Millennium Institute Threshold 21 -T21 Model
- New Economic Foundation NEF
- Include Feedbacks
Stock Flow Consistent Models
- GEMMA Green Economy Macro-Model and Accounts framework
- FALSTAFF Financial Assets and Liabilities in a Stock and Flow consistent Framework
- (Tim Jackson, Peter Victor)
- Uses STELLA system dynamics software
- ECOGRO
- SIGMA
- GEMMES Model – Gaël Giraud et all, France
- No Feedback
Stock Flow Consistent + Input-output Model (SFCIO)
- Matthew Berg
- Yannis Dafermos
From Foundations for an Ecological Macroeconomics: literature review and model development
In the late 1960s and early 1970s several economists, including Leontief, suggested ways in which input-output models could be used for analyzing various economic aspects of environmental pollution. Victor (1972) showed how input-output models could be extended systematically to include material flows to and from economies and the environment by applying the principle of materials balance. In this way, economies could be understood and modelled as sub-systems of the biosphere in which they are embedded. Victor developed the theoretical framework for this approach and produced the first estimates of the direct, indirect and total material flows (resource inputs and waste outputs) for a national economy. The approach has subsequently been adapted to explore a variety of environmental features of the economy, including: the ‘carbon trade-balance’ of a national economy (Proops et al 1993, Jackson et al 2007); the distribution of carbon emissions attributable to different socio-economic groups and expenditures (Druckman and Jackson 2009); and the extent of the rebound effect from efficiency savings (Druckman et al 2011).
The static input-output model has been developed in two different directions. One is the construction of fully fledged macroeconomic multi-sectoral models such as Barker (1976) and Barker and Peterson (1987) for the UK economy or the INFORUM (Inter-industry Forecasting and Modelling at the University of Maryland) model family, first described in Almon et.al. (1974). The other line of development consisted of large CGE models like the GREEN model of OECD (Burniaux, et.al., 1992; Lee, et.al., 1994). The situation in Europe during the decade after 1990 was characterized by the parallel development and application of the CGE model GEM-E3 (Conrad and Schmidt, 1998) and the EIO model E3ME (Barker, 1999, Barker, et.al., 1999). Both models integrated energy and emissions in the economic model (E3) and have been used for evaluation of energy tax policies and emission trading at the EU level in standardized simulations (for comparison of results see: Barker, 1999).
As a consequence of these parallel developments of very different models, there has been an ongoing discussion between the EIO- and the CGE-community focussing on the following issues: calibration vs. econometric estimation, the choice of functional forms in relation to the behavioural assumptions (economic rationality of agents), the role of equilibrium mechanisms and the benchmark year, as well as the meaning of time and the modelling of adjustment towards equilibrium.
A Stock-Flow Consistent System Dynamics Framework
The modelling approach pursued by Surrey builds on an on-going project led by Prof Tim Jackson and Prof Peter Victor (York University, Toronto). Working together over the last four years, Jackson and Victor have begun to develop a stock-flow consistent (SFC) ecological macro-economics. The broad approach has several distinct features.
In the first place, it draws together three primary spheres of modelling interest and explores the interactions between them. These spheres are: 1) the ecological and resource constraints on economic activity; 2) a full account of production, consumption, employment and public finances in the ‘real economy’ at the level of the nation state; 3) a comprehensive account of the money economy, including the main interactions between financial agents, and the creation, flow and destruction of the money supply itself. Interactions within and between these spheres of interest are modelled, using a system dynamics framework.6
Systems modelling has a long pedigree within ecological economics, stemming most notably from the work of Jay Forrester and the Club of Rome’s ground-breaking Limits to Growth report (Meadows et al 1972). In the context of this research, it offers a number of advantages. Most obviously, the structural form of systems dynamics employs a consistent understanding of stocks and flows, and the relationship between them. It is therefore well-suited to capturing the importance of stocks and flows in all three spheres of interest in this exercise. Systems dynamics is particularly useful in exploring scenario development over time. It allows considerable user- interaction in the specification of exogenous variables and facilitates a collaborative (visual) understanding of both the model structure and the scenario results (van den Belt 2004).
A further key feature of the Surrey approach is the focus of attention on the individual nation state. A premise of the work is that the ‘dilemma of growth’ has particular ramifications for national policy and is best explored at that level. The growth of GDP or national income in a particular country is not just a significant policy indicator in its own right, it is also a measure of production output and consumption possibilities, as well as being related to a country’s ability to provide citizens with work, finance its social investment, and compete in global markets. Admittedly, all of these questions could also be (and often are) asked at supra-national or sub-national level. Since the development of a unified System of National Accounts (UN 1993, 2008), however, the most comprehensive, reliable and consistent data sets tend to be available at country and national level.
Finally, in addition to ideas and frameworks that have a long pedigree in ecological economics (such as system dynamics) Jackson and Victor have drawn substantially on insights adopted recently by post-Keynesian economics and modern theory and in particular the approach known as Stock-Flow Consistent macro-economics, pioneered by Copeland (1949) and developed extensively by Godley and Lavoie (2007). From these foundations and starting points, two somewhat distinct models have so far been constructed, and are currently being calibrated against National Accounts data from the UK and from Canada.
GEMMA and FALSTAFF Models
The Green Economy Macro-Model and Accounts framework (GEMMA) is a systems dynamics input- output model incorporating 12 industry sectors (and the interactions between them) and six ‘accounting sectors’. Early results from GEMMA were reported during the Rio Summit in June 2012. It was possible to establish simple scenarios for the decarbonisation of the economy, with and without de-growth, and to explore the implications of these scenarios for employment, public debt, and sector balance sheets. Comprehensive materials, energy and emission databases have now been compiled (and estimated) at 12-sector level for eventual use in the model.
Though it includes a comprehensive division of the economy and an accounting framework which imposes stock-flow consistency on monetary flows, the GEMMA framework so far lacks a full articulation of the SFC approach of post-Keynesian economics and modern money theory.
To explore the financial elements of the economy more thoroughly, Jackson and Victor developed what is currently a separate systems dynamics model. Financial Assets and Liabilities in a Stock and Flow consistent Framework (FALSTAFF) contains a simplified version of the real economy. The real economy in FALSTAFF consists of only one sector defined in terms of the national economy and simple import-export trade relationship with the rest of the world. However, it creates more detail in the financial relationships within and between sectors than GEMMA, and is able to simulate and report the key accounting identities of SFC theory. Early results from FALSTAFF were presented at the Canadian Ecological Economics Conference in Toronto in November 2013.
From Coping with the Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent, Monetary Macro-dynamics of Global Warming
Overview
Taking advantage of over forty years of hindsight available since The Limits to Growth (LtG) was published (Meadows et al., 1972, 1974), several attempts to review how society is tracking relative to their ground-breaking modelling have addressed the question of whether the global economy is on a path of sustainability or collapse. Turner (2008) and Hall and Day (2009) tend to confirm the LtG standard-run scenarios, which forecast a collapse in living standards due to resource constraints in the twenty-first century. On the other hand, over a similar time frame, international efforts based around a series of United Nations (UN) conferences have yielded rather mixed results (Linner and Selin, 2013, Meadowcroft, 2013). In these simulations at least, the unravelling of the global economy and environment is essentially due to the growing scarcity of natural resources (energy, minerals, water…), while climate change plays little role, if any. Given the ongoing awareness of climate change damages, crystallized at the diplomatic level in the Paris Agreement of December 2015, this raises the question of whether global warming might per se induce a similar breakdown of the world economy. This paper examines this issue, presenting a macroeconomic model of endogenous growth that enables to take into consideration both the economic impact of climate change and the pivotal role of private debt.
Method
Using a Goodwin-Keen approach, based on the Lotka-Volterra logic, we couple its nonlinear dynamics of underemployment and income distribution with abatement costs. Moreover, various damage functions à la Nordhaus and Dietz-Stern reflect the loss in final production due to the temperature increase caused by the rising levels of carbon dioxide emissions. We incorporate endogenous drivers of growth and allow climate change to damage these drivers. Our modelling approach is also compatible with multiple long-run equilibria, it is stock- flow consistent (Godley and Lavoie, 2012), and exhibits endogenous monetary cycles and growth, viscous prices, private debt, and underemployment. An empirical estimation of the model at the world-scale enables us to simulate plausible trajectories for the planetary business-as-usual scenario. We analyse the extent to which slower demographic growth or higher carbon pricing allow a global breakdown to be avoided. The paper concludes by examining the conditions under which the +1.5°C target, adopted by the Paris Agreement (2015), could be reached.
Results
By combining financial and environmental aspects, the stock-flow consistent macroeconomic model introduced in this paper allows us to evaluate economic growth, or possible (forced) degrowth, depending on the dynamics of labour productivity, damages induced by global warming, the demographic trend, and climate sensitivity, as well as the carbon price path. Our main finding is that, even though the short-run impact of climate change on economic fundamentals may seem prima facie rather minor, its long-run dynamic consequences may lead to an extreme downside. Under plausible circumstances, global warming forces the private sector to leverage in order to compensate for output losses; the private debt overhang may eventually induce a global financial collapse, even before climate change could cause serious damage to the production sector. Under more severe conditions, the interplay between global warming and debt may lead to a secular stagnation followed by a collapse in the second half of this century. These results complete the path-breaking work of LtG by adding a third cause of possible collapse to the scarcity of natural resources and pollution (other than CO2 emissions).
Conclusion
Curbing the demographic trend does postpone the potential disaster but is not sufficient to avoid it. However, a carbon price starting at US$ 12 t/CO2 in 2015 and reaching US$ 29 t/CO2 in 2055 suffices to restore perpetual growth whenever climate sensitivity is 2.9. With a high climate sensitivity of 6, a much more severe carbon price path is needed, starting for instance at US$ 65.5 t/CO2 in 2015 and finishing at a level higher than US$ 285 t/CO2 in 2050. Given the radical uncertainty that plagues climatologists’ knowledge about climate sensitivity, these results call for strong and immediate action. This can take the form of a high carbon price (or price corridor, since there is no reason for the relevant incentivizing price to be uniform throughout the world), starting immediately above US$ 65.5 t/CO2, and rapidly increasing. Finally, it seems too late for the world economy to be able to reach the +1.5°C target, unless with a stroke of luck climate sensitivity turns out to be very low.
References
D.H. Meadows, Club of Rome, and Potomac Associates. The Limits to growth: a report for the Club of Rome’s project on the predicament of mankind. Number ptie. 1 in Potomac Associates book. Universe Books, 1972.
D. H. Meadows and Club of Rome. The Limits to growth: a report for the Club of Rome’s project on the predicament of mankind. Number vol. 1974, ptie. 2 in The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome’s Project on the Predicament of Mankind. New American Library, 1974.
G. M. Turner. A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality. Global Environmental Change, 18:397–411, 2008.
C. A. S. Hall and J. W. Day. Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil. American Scientist, 18:230–7, May- June 2009.
B. Linner and H. Selin. The united nations conference on sustainable development: forty years in the making. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 31(6):971–87, 2013.
J. Meadowcroft. Reaching the limits? developed country engagement with sustainable development in a challenging conjuncture. Environment and Planning C, 31(6):988–1002, 2013.
S. Keen. Finance and economic breakdown: modeling Minsky’s “financial instability hypothesis”. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, pages 607–35, 1995.
W. Godley and M. Lavoie. Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach to Credit, Money, Income, Production and Wealth. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2012.
W. D. Nordhaus. Optimal Greenhouse-Gas Reductions and Tax Policy in the “Dice” Model. American Economic Review, 83(2):313–17, May 1993.
S. Dietz and N. Stern. Endogenous growth, convexity of damage and climate risk: How Nordhaus’ framework supports deep cuts in carbon emissions. The Economic Journal, 125(583):574–620, 2015.
From Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output Models as a Bridge Between Post-Keynesian and Ecological Economics
By combining SFC models and IO models, financial flows of funds can be integrated with flows of real goods and services. Lawrence Klein, who developed large scale macroeconomic models typified by the FRB-MIT-Penn model, has noted the natural synergies between the National Income and Product accounts, the IO accounts, and the FF accounts (Klein, 2003). The approach of combining both SFC and IO models with ecological macroeconomics affords one method to unite those accounts, as suggested by Klein, and to simultaneously model monetary flows through the financial system, flows of produced goods and services through the real economy, and flows of physical materials through the natural environment. Models of this type may provide additional tools to aid macroeconomists, ecological economists, and physicists in the task of understanding the economy and the physical environment as one united and complexly interrelated system, rather than as a colloidal agglomeration of artificially separated analytical domains. These modes of analysis are required to study pressing problems such as climate change, which are neither purely economic, nor purely environmental, nor purely physical, but rather are all of the above (Rezai et al., 2013). The following chapter presents the methodology and structure of a conceptual stock-flow consistent input–output model.
Carbon Accounting, System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA)
United Nations has developed SEEA framework for accounting of stocks and flows related to integrated Environmental Economic flows. In 2012, last update was published.
From TOWARDS A COMPREHENSIVE AND FULLY INTEGRATED STOCK AND FLOW FRAMEWORK FOR CARBON ACCOUNTING IN AUSTRALIA
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Since only the mid-1990s, national governments have invested substantially in information systems to meet their reporting obligations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol. These systems, developed under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidance, generate considerable amounts of information and undergo constant refinement and coverage. They are designed to report flow information, i.e. greenhouse gas emissions to and removals from the atmosphere. This information is crucial not just for reporting against climate change mitigation commitments but also for understanding the climate change process. The information system, however, is incomplete because data users – be they policy makers, researchers or the public – need stock and flow information. Our core objectives are usually expressed in stock terms. How we get there is usually expressed in flow terms. For example, the economic wealth of a country (a stock) is built through a combination of processes (various flows such as investing and working).
At the country level, carbon flow information needs complementing with information about carbon stocks in fossil fuels and in ecosystems to provide policy makers and other data users with a complete set of information. Recent advances in understanding and research have made the reporting of comprehensive carbon stock and flow information a real possibility. These include: DoE work to progressively develop a comprehensive carbon accounting framework to support multiple information needs; the stock-based modelling underpinning much of the flow information reported by DoE for the land sector; the experience and skills in the ABS developed over many decades of economic accounting in the principles of comprehensiveness and linking multiple stock and flow accounts; the endorsement and publication in 2012 of the System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) Central Framework by the United Nations, European Commission, FAO, OECD, IMF and World Bank as a global statistical standard and the subsequent SEEA work to develop stock accounting frameworks for various ‘assets’ including carbon as presented in SEEA Experimental Ecosystem Accounting and published by the European Commission, OECD, United Nations and World Bank in 2013. The consistency in concepts, standards and classifications between the SEEA and the economic System of National Accounts (SNA) presents a real opportunity to fully integrate carbon and economic information to enhance research and policy making in Australia.
From A review of recent multi-region input–output models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting
The interest in consumption-based emission and resource accounting has grown significantly. Many studies juxtapose consumer emissions (carbon footprint) and producer (territorial) emissions of greenhouse gases in order to demonstrate the effects of trade on the national emission budget. To this end, a respectable number of studies have been undertaken worldwide in order to estimate emissions embedded in international trade of numerous countries and world regions. Input–output approaches, and increasingly multi-region input–output (MRIO) models, are commonly chosen as they provide an appropriate methodological framework for complete carbon footprint estimates at the national and supra-national level. With increasing processing capabilities of computers and a wider availability of economic accounts, environmental accounts and trade data such models are now being implemented on a wide scale.
After a brief overview of salient single-region input–output studies I provide an in-depth review of the most recent multi-region input–output models used for the purpose of consumption-based environmental accounting. The main methodological features and important results are described for around twenty studies covering the years 2007 to 2009. This is followed by a detailed review of studies dealing with uncertainty in MRIO analysis, an area which has not received a lot of attention so far. I conclude that further research is mainly needed in two areas, a) improvements in data availability and quality and b) improvements in the accuracy of MRIO modelling.
Key Terms
- Regional Disaster Impact Analysis
- Multi Regional Input Output (MRIO) Tables
- Input Output Tables
- Social Accounting Matrix SAM
- UN – SEEA (System of Environmental Economic Accounting)
- Social Cost of Carbon
- EEIO (Environmentally Extended Input Output)
- World Input Output Network (WION)
- Global Multi Regional Input Output (GMRIO)
- Stock Flow Consistent Models (SFC)
- Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models
- System Dynamics
- Monetary Input Output Tables
- Carbon Stocks and Flow Accounting
- Planetary Boundaries
- Limits to Growth
- Integrated Impact Assessment Models (IAMs)
- Green Economy
- De-growth Economy
- Post Growth Economics
- Steady State Economy
Notable centres of integrated assessment modelling are IIASA, MIT, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and International Futures.
Notable scholars are Barry B. Hughes, Bill Nordhaus, Robert Mendelsohn, Rich Richels, Michael Schlesinger, Stephen Schneider, Richard Tol, John Weyant, and Gary Yohe.
Key Sources of Research:
Planetary Boundaries – Some Questions and Answers
Click to access Planetary+Boundaries+Q+and+A+Jan+2015update.pdf
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/
Ecological Macroeconomics: Consumption, Investment, and Climate Change
Jonathan M. Harris
July 2008
Click to access 08-02EcologMacroEconJuly08.pdf
ECOLOGICAL MACROECONOMICS: INTRODUCTION AND REVIEW
System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA)
Click to access SEEA_CF_Final_en.pdf
Ecological Macroeconomic Models: Assessing Current Developments
Lukas Hardt, Daniel W. O’Neill
2017
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916303202
Stock-Flow Consistent Input–Output Models as a Bridge Between Post-Keynesian and Ecological Economics
Matthew Berg
Brian Hartley
Oliver Richters
October 7, 2015
Click to access v_2015_10_23_richters.pdf
A stock-flow consistent input–output model with applications to energy price shocks, interest rates, and heat emissions
Matthew Berg, Brian Hartley and Oliver Richters
2015
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1367-2630/17/1/015011/pdf
Click to access Richters_141204.pdf
An ecological stock-flow-fund modelling framework
Yannis Dafermos,
Giorgos Galanis,
Maria Nikolaidi,
2016
Click to access YD290515.pdf
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916301343
Coping with the Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent, Monetary Macro-dynamics of Global Warming
June 23, 2016
Gaël Giraud Florent Mc Isaac Emmanuel Bovari Ekaterina Zatsepina
Click to access gael_giraud_coping-collapse-stock.pdf
Click to access BOVARI.pdf
Click to access WWWforEurope_WPS_no114_MS40.pdf
TOWARDS A STOCK-FLOW CONSISTENT ECOLOGICAL MACROECONOMICS
An overview of the FALSTAFF framework with some illustrative results
Tim Jackson (t.jackson@surrey.ac.uk)
Peter A. Victor (pvictor@yorku.ca)
2015
Modeling Growth, Distribution, and the Environment in a Stock-Flow Consistent Framework
Asjad Naqvi (WU)
February 2015
Click to access WWWforEurope_Policy_Paper_018.pdf
Foundations for an Ecological Macroeconomics: literature review and model development
Authors: Tim Jackson, Ben Drake (SURREY), Peter Victor (York University), Kurt Kratena, Mark Sommer (WIFO)
August 2014
Click to access WWWforEurope_WPS_no065_MS38.pdf
Central Banking, Climate Change and Environmental Sustainability
Click to access cfp1116.pdf
Understanding public complacency about climate change: adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter
John D. Sterman · Linda Booth Sweeney
2006
Click to access Sterman_Understanding%20Public%20Complacency.pdf
A new ecological macroeconomic model
Analysing the interactions between the ecosystem, the financial system and the macroeconomy
2016
NEF
Click to access 08ec800b159197d7a3_qlm6i2e5v.pdf
PRIMES and GEM-E3 Contribution to Climate Change Policy Debate
Click to access IEA96.pdf
Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Integrated Approach to Production, Energy,
Emissions, Distributions and Unemployment
Asjad Naqvi
September 3, 2014
Click to access Paper_Asjad_Naqvi.pdf
Understanding GHG emissions: Stock vs. Flows
BY DIEGO VILLARREAL
JULY 18, 2011
http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2011/07/18/understanding-ghg-emissions-stock-vs-flows/
Climate Change and the global Economy
IMF
Click to access c4.pdf
‘No one saw this coming’ – or did they?
Dirk Bezemer
30 September 2009
http://voxeu.org/article/no-one-saw-coming-or-did-they
Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent modelling: a survey
Eugenio Caverzasi and Antoine Godin
Click to access 1a1eb8830fbf4f2fe423ee7c6df7592d9ef25f8c.pdf
Cloudy Skies: Assessing Public Understanding of Global Warming
John D. Sterman Linda Booth Sweeney
May 2002
Click to access 6b11e5af168f3ed411e84bcd41d18e6c70c4.pdf
DICE 2013R: Introduction and User’s Manual
William Nordhaus with Paul Sztorc
October 31, 2013
Click to access DICE_Manual_103113r2.pdf
The Structure of Economic Modeling of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change: Grafting Gross Underestimation of Risk onto Already Narrow Science Models
Nicholas Stern
2013
Click to access 128nhs.pdf
ON MODELING AND INTERPRETING THE ECONOMICS OF CATASTROPHIC CLIMATE CHANGE
Martin L. Weitzman
2009
https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/3693423/Weitzman_OnModeling.pdf?sequence=2
LEAP: Introduction
https://www.energycommunity.org/default.asp?action=introduction
Click to access ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary-for-policymakers.pdf
TOWARDS A COMPREHENSIVE AND FULLY INTEGRATED STOCK AND FLOW FRAMEWORK FOR CARBON ACCOUNTING IN AUSTRALIA
JUDITH AJANI AND PETER COMISARI
Click to access LG20_3_3.pdf
The role of System Dynamics modelling to understand food chain complexity and address challenges for sustainability policies
Authors: Irene Monasterolo1, Roberto Pasqualino, Edoardo Mollona
Click to access CFP3-06_Full_Paper.pdf
Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change
Click to access sternreview_report_complete.pdf
Environmental reporting and accounting in Australia: Progress, prospects and research priorities
Albert van Dijk a,⁎, Richard Mount b,c, Philip Gibbons a, Michael Vardon d, Pep Canadell
Click to access vanDijk_2014_EnvironmentalReportingAndAccountingInAustralia.pdf
NOTES AND INSIGHTS
Climate interactive: the C-ROADS climate policy model
John Sterman,Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin and Lori Siegel
Syst. Dyn. Rev. 28, 295–305 (2012)
Click to access System-Dynamics-Review-C-ROADS.pdf
Growth, degrowth and climate change: A scenario analysis
Peter A. Victor
Click to access Victor_Growth-Degrowth-and-Climate-Change.pdf
The U.S. Forest Carbon Accounting Framework: Stocks and Stock Change, 1990-2016
Click to access gtr_nrs154.pdf
RICHARD T. ELY LECTURE
The Economics of Climate Change
By Nicholas Stern
Click to access Stern_American_Economics_Review.pdf
Shifting the Trillions The Role of the G20 in Making Financial Flows Consistent with Global Long-Term Climate Goals
Gerrit Hansen, David Eckstein, Lutz Weischer, Christoph Bals
Click to access 15891.pdf
Management Flight Simulators to Support Climate Negotiations: The C-ROADS Climate Policy Model
John D. Sterman, Thomas Fiddaman, Travis Franck, Andrew Jones Stephanie McCauley Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin, Lori Siegel
Click to access C-ROADS-Sterman-et-al.pdf
A stock-flow-fund ecological macroeconomic model
Yannis Dafermos, Maria Nikolaidi, Giorgos Galanis
Available online 14 September 2016
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800916301343
Communicating climate change risks in a skeptical world
John D. Sterman
2011
Click to access StermanClimaticChange2011.pdf
C-ROADS SIMULATOR REFERENCE GUIDE
2015
Tom Fiddaman, Lori S. Siegel, Elizabeth Sawin, Andrew P. Jones, John Sterman
Click to access C-ROADS_Reference_Guide_v68.pdf
World Bank Group Climate Change Action Plan
April 7, 2016
Click to access WBG-Climate-Change-Action-Plan-public-version.pdf
Climate Interactive: advancing MIT’s global change modeling legacy
http://mitsloan.mit.edu/sustainability/profile/climate-interactive-advancing-mits-global-change-modeling-legacy
En-ROADS
Energy policy and investment simulator
https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/en-roads/
C-ROADS
Climate change policy simulator
https://www.climateinteractive.org/tools/c-roads/
C-ROADS – Climate Simulation for Decision Makers
http://www.ventanasystems.com/examples/c-roads-climate-simulation-decision-makers/
C-ROADS and C-LEARN, Climate Interactive
http://vensim.com/c-roads-and-c-learn-climate-interactive/
WORLD CLIMATE: A Role-Play Simulation of Climate Negotiations
Simulation & Gaming 2015, Vol. 46(3-4) 348–382 © 2014
John Sterman, Travis Franck, Thomas Fiddaman, Andrew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Philip Rice, Elizabeth Sawin, Lori Siegel, and Juliette N. Rooney-Varga
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1046878113514935
Critical Reflections on System Dynamics and Simulation/Gaming
Pål I. Davidsen1 and J. Michael Spector
2015
http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1046878115596526
Economic Development under Climate Change
Channing Arndt, Paul Chinowsky, Sherman Robinson,
Kenneth Strzepek, Finn Tarp, and James Thurlow*
Click to access Economic%20Development%20under%20Climate%20Change.pdf
Feedback Complexity in Integrated Climate-Economy Models
Click to access FiddamanDissertation.pdf
http://metasd.com/tag/climate/
Macro economic Modelling of the Global Economy-Energy-Environment Nexus
An Overview of Recent Advancements of the Dynamic Simulation Model GINFORS
Mark Meyer Martin Distelkamp Gerd Ahlert Bernd Meyer
2013
Click to access gws-paper13-5.pdf
The macroeconomics of climate change
Report prepared for Defra
2013
Click to access defra_themacroeconomicsofclimatechangefinalreportmay2013.pdf
Using Models for Green Economy Policy Making
Click to access unepmodelsgepolicymaking.pdf
Environmental-economic modelling
Click to access victor-peter-berlin-paper-draft-w-Tim-Jackson.pdf
How to Save a Leaky Ship:
Capability Traps and the Failure of Win-Win Investments in Sustainability and Social Responsibility
REMIND Model
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/research/sustainable-solutions/models/remind
Joint Global Change Research Institute
http://www.globalchange.umd.edu
AMPERE PROJECT
http://ampere-project.eu/web/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=13&Itemid=104
https://secure.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/ene/AMPEREDB/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about
Evaluating integrated assessment models of global climate change
Valeria Jana Schwanitz
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, Postfach 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
2013
Inside the integrated assessment models: Four issues in climate economics
ELIZABETH A. STANTON*, FRANK ACKERMAN and SIVAN KARTHA
Integrated Impact Assessment Models of Climate Change with an Emphasis on Damage Functions: a Literature Review
Ramon Arigoni Ortiz and Anil Markandya
October 2009
Incorporating Climate Change Feedbacks into a General Economic Equilibrium Model
Sergey Paltsev and John Reilly
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA
Click to access 2587.pdf
https://dspace.mit.edu/bitstream/handle/1721.1/70898/MITJPSPGC_Rpt219.pdf?sequence=1
On the representation of impact in integrated assessment models of climate change
Richard S.J. Tol and Samuel Fankhauser
INTEGRATED ECONOMIC AND CLIMATE MODELING
William D. Nordhaus
December 2011
Click to access 6258971.pdf
Integrated Assessment Models For Climate Change Control
David L. Kelly Charles D. Kolstad
November 1998
Click to access 6949336.pdf
Regional disaster impact analysis: comparing input–output and computable general equilibrium models
Elco E. Koks, Lorenzo Carrera, Olaf Jonkeren, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Trond G. Husby, Mark Thissen, Gabriele Standardi, and Jaroslav Mysiak
Fully Interregional Dynamic Econometric Long-term Input-Output Model for the EU27
Kurt Kratena, Gerhard Streicher, Umed Temurshoev, Antonio F. Amores, Iñaki Arto, Ignazio Mongelli, Frederik Neuwahl, José M. Rueda-Cantuche,
Valeria Andreoni
2013
Click to access JRC81864.pdf
A review of recent multi-region input–output models used for consumption-based emission and resource accounting
Thomas Wiedmann
Available online 15 September 2009
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800909003577
Viewpoints which Matter 